% 0200 POTENTIAL ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECTS STATUS AND OUTLOOK DUANE G. LEVINE PRESENTATION THE BOARD TO OF OF DIRECTORS EXXON CORPORATION FEBRUARY 22, 1989 0201 REAL...HAS EXISTED THROUGHOUT MAN'S HISTORY...AND IN FACT...WITHOUT IT# CURRENT LIFE COULD NOT EXIST. TODAY'S CONCERNS ARE ABOUT AN EN ¬ HANCEMENT OF THIS EFFECT DUE TO HUMAN ACTIV ¬ ITIES. Sof I'LL REFER TO THESE CONCERNS COLLECTIVELY AS "POTENTIAL ENHANCED GREEN ¬ HOUSE" OR PEG. IT HAS BEEN UNDER INTENSIVE SCIENTIFIC STUDY FOR OVER A DECADE BEFORE IT RECENTLY LEAPED TO THE FRONT PAGE. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT IS IN SPITE OF THE RUSH BY SOME PARTICIPANTS IN THE GREENHOUSE DEBATE TO DECLARE THAT THE SCIENCE HAS DEMONSTRATED THE EXISTENCE OF PEG TODAY...I DO NOT BELIEVE SUCH IS THE CASE. ENHANCED GREENHOUSE IS STILL DEEPLY IMBEDDED IN SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY, AND WE WILL REQUIRE SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL INVESTI ¬ GATION TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE TO WHICH ITS EFFECTS MIGHT BE EXPERIENCED IN THE FUTURE. POTENTIAL ENHANCED GREENHOUSE (PEG ) What’s Known/Not Known About the SCIENCE • Chemistry /Physics • Projections • Climate • Data Models Who Are the Principal PLAYERS • Programs • Perceptions • Plans What’s NEXT SO THIS REVIEW WILL BEGIN WITH WHAT IS KNOWN AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THE SCIENCE...FIRST THE ESSENTIAL CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS...AND THEN PROCEED WITH A DESCRIPTION OF CLIMATE MODELS WHICH ARE USED TO PREDICT FUTURE POTENTIAL 1 0202 EFFECTS. I'LL COVER THE HARD DATA AND THEN SUMMARIZE PROJECTED EFFECTS...BASED ON COMPLEX CLIMATE MODELS...WHICH...INCI DENTLY...HAVE YET TO BE VERIFIED. - HOWEVER , POLICY INITIATIVES ARE BEING AD ¬ VANCED NOW AND THEY COULD WELL OUT PACE SCIENTIFIC PROGRESS. I'LL COVER THE CURRENT ROSTER OF PRINCIPAL PLAYERS IN THIS DEBATE, OUTLINE THEIR PROGRAM AND PLANS. AND SUMMA ¬ RIZE SOME OF THEIR MOST VISIBLE PERCEPTIONS. FINALLY, I'LL TRY A GLIMPSE AT WHAT'S NEXT. GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CONCERNS - • * 03 - : -,v - i - Vv . ; ' Layer (UV) > -r; • Stratosphere •S m V: v .- F - V mm- Greenhouse Layer (IR) Troposphere Wte i® a To PUT PEG IN PERSPECTIVE, LET'S START WITH A GENERAL MODEL OF THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE AND 2 OF THE CURRENT MAJOR GLOBAL ATMOSPHER ¬ IC CONCERNS. ON THE LEFT, SOLAR RADIANT ENERGY IS REPRESENTED BY A BEAM RANGING FROM INFRARED (IR IN RED) TO ULTRAVIOLET (UV IN BLUE)..WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THE VISIBLE RANGE SHOWN IN YELLOW MOST OF THE . . 2 0203 ^^ UV IS PICKED UP IN THE 03 LAYER IN THE STRATOSPHERE OR UPPER ATMOSPHERE (WHICH EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 15 50 KM ABOVE THE EARTH'S SURFACE). THIS, OF COURSE, REVEALS THE CONCERN OVER DETERIORATION OF THIS LAYER BY MAN MADE CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS (CFCs) WHICH CAN ATTACK 03 AND REDUCE ITS CONCEN ¬ TRATION IN THE STRATOSPHERE. SUCH DETERIO ¬ RATION WOULD ALLOW MORE UV TO PENETRATE THE ATMOSPHERE AND IMPACT LIFE ON THE EARTH'S SURFACE. PROTECTION OF THIS O3 LAYER BY REDUCING CFCs IS THE GOAL OF THE RECENT - - MONTREAL PROTOCOLS. MOST # OF THE IR PENETRATES THE STRATOSPHERE AND IS ABSORBED BY GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE OR TROPOSPHERE. THIS, OF COURSE, HELPS WARM THE EARTH THE BULK OF THE RADIANT ENERGY REACHING THE EARTH IS ABSORBED IN THE VISIBLE RANGE (SHOWN IN . YELLOW) ...DIRECTLY WARMING THE EARTH. THE RE EMITTED ENERGY...AND THIS IS MOST IMPORTANT...IS CONCENTRATED IN THE IR RANGE AND THAT ADDS TO THE AMOUNT OF IR IN THE TROPOSPHERE. - OVERALL, THEN, THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS DOMI ¬ NATED BY UV...AND 03 LAYER PROTECTION IS THE ISSUE...WHILE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE IS DOMI ¬ NATED BY IR AND GREENHOUSE TYPE PROCESSES... - WITH CLIMATE CHANGE AS THE ISSUE. 3 0204 ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT , (CO . \ Troposphere /// / / / ' / / / . / Troposphere • Earth Concentrates IR WE CAN GO A LITTLE DEEPER ON GREENHOUSE TO HIGHLIGHT 2 KEY ASPECTS WHICH DETERMINE ITS OVERALL EFFECTIVENESS. AGAIN...THE BAND OF SOLAR RADIATION IS DEPICTED ON THE LEFT. As MENTIONED, MOST OF THE INCIDENT VISIBLE SOLAR RADIATION (IN YELLOW) IS ABSORBED BY THE EARTH'S SURFACE AND RE EMITTED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY AS IR (iN RED) IF THIS RE ¬ EMITTED IR ENCOUNTERS GREENHOUSE GAS ¬ ES...LIKE C02...WHOSE PROPERTIES FAVOR IR ABSORPTION...THEY ABSORB IT. .LEVERAGING THE IR WARMING.. INDICATED BY THE DASHED LINE. WHEN NO GREENHOUSE GASES ARE ENCOUNTERED, THE RE EMITTED IR ESCAPES TO SPACE. THUS, THE EARTH SERVES TO CONCENTRATE IR IN THE TROPOSPHERE AND GREENHOUSE GASES CONVERT IT - . . . - A 0205 ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT • Wf * rs N ¥ H2 O \ Troposphere / / / . / 1 /' / // Troposphere • Earth Concentrates IR • Water Vapor Increases IR Trapping Effect TO HEAT. NOW...THIS ADDITIONAL HEATING PROMOTES MORE WATER VAPORIZATION AND WATER VAPOR ITSELF IS A VERY EFFECTIVE GREENHOUSE GAS. IN FACT, IT IS ABOUT 3 TIMES MORE EFFECTIVE THAN C02 IT'S REALLY THE WATER VAPOR THAT DOES MOST OF THE JOB. THIS LATTER POINT IS SIGNIFICANT BECAUSE ANY GREENHOUSE GAS...INCLUDING TRACE GREENHOUSE GASES LIKE CFCS, CH4, HALOGENS, N 20, AND 03 IN THE TROPOSPHERE...CAN TRIGGER THE ADDI¬ TIONAL WATER VAPOR LEVERAGING EFFECT. - 5 0206 “ THIS INSIGHT ALSO EXPOSES THE ENORMOUS DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 03 LAYER PROTECTION AND ENHANCED GREENHOUSE... " " " AND t THEY OCCUR IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THEY INVOLVE DIFFERENT PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY. THEY HAVE DIFFERENT EFFECTS ON LIFE. . WHEREAS O3 LAYER DETERIORATION IS CURRENTLY TRACED TO A SINGLE FAMILY OF MAN MADE CHEMICALS...GREENHOUSE IN ¬ CLUDES THE LIFE CYCLE GASES C02 AND H20 WITH MANY NATURAL SOURCES AND SINKS. - FINALLY, I # SHOULD ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THERE ARE SOME INTERACTIONS BETWEEN O3 LAYER PROTEC TION AND GREENHOUSE IN THAT 03 AND CFCS ARE BOTH GREENHOUSE GASES AND O3 CAN REACT WITH CERTAIN OTHER GREENHOUSE TROPOSPHERIC GASES. - EXACTLY HOW THE GREENHOUSE GASES DETERMINE GLOBAL HEAT OR ENERGY BALANCE...AND HOW THE FLOW OF ENERGY IN AND OUT OF THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE DRIVES OUR CLIMATE IS DESCRIBED IN THE NEXT £ FIGURES .FIRST, THE GLOBAL ENERGY BALANCE.. . .. 6 0207 GREENHOUSE GASES & GLOBAL HEAT BALANCE • Radiation Balance Regulates Global Temperature Cooling Pgggndg On: . Tampofituc* Atmo*pt»ric Composition HMOn FROM SPACE , THE EARTH MUST BE IN THAT MEANS HEAT ENERGY EQUILIBRIUM FLOWING IN FROM SOLAR RADIATION (SHOWN IN YELLOW) MUST EQUAL HEAT RE EMITTED BY THE THIS PLOT SHOWS THE EARTH (SHOWN IN RED ) RADIANT ENERGY IN AND OUT AS A FUNCTION OF YELLOW SOLAR HEATING IN THE WAVE LENGTH VISIBLE RANGE AND RED EARTH COOLING IN THE IR RANGE ALTHOUGH THE SHAPES OF THE CURVES ARE DIFFERENT AND THE RADIATION IS AT QUITE DIFFERENT WAVELENGTHS, THE FACT IS THAT THE AREAS UNDER THE CURVES ARE EQUAL THIS EQUALITY INDICATES THE BALANCE BETWEEN TOTAL RADIATIVE HEATING AND COOLING VIEWED .. . . . - ... 0 ... . . NOW , ... INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION IS ESSEN ¬ TIALLY A CONSTANT OVER TIME HOWEVER , RADIANT COOLING DEPENDS ON THE EARTHr S TEMPERATURE AND ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION THE COOLING CURVE IS SHOWN IN MORE DETAIL IN THE FIGURE COMPARED WITH THE SOMEWHAT . . . . 7 0208 GREENHOUSE GASES & GLOBAL HEAT BALANCE Radiation Balance Regulates Global Temperature Cooling PtwndB On: Tampon!ur« Atmoophoftc Composition lAl • Greenhouse Gases Selectively flap IR Radiation • Existing Greenhouse Produces 60"F Surface Warming Without IR Greenhouse Earth Would Be Largely Frozen — IDEALIZED, SMOOTH COOLING CURVE SHOWN ABOVE...HERE, IN FINER DETAIL, WE SEE THE EFFECT OF GREENHOUSE GASES THE CLEAR AREA BENEATH THE CURVE SHOWS THE ABSORPTION OF IR RADIANT ENERGY RE EMITTED BY THE EARTH AT PARTICULAR WAVELENGTHS. QUITE OBVIOUS ARE THE STRONG ABSORPTION FEATURES PRODUCED BY C02 AND O3. WATER VAPOR, THE MOST POWERFUL GREENHOUSE GAS, ABSORBS AT ALL WAVE LENGTHS. THE TOTAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT DEPENDS ON THE NATURE (MOLECULAR STRUCTURE) AND NUMBER (ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION) OF ALL GREEN ¬ HOUSE MOLECULES . - . SINCE THE SOLAR HEATING INPUT REMAINS CON ¬ STANT .WHILE THE GREENHOUSE GASES HAVE ABSORBED SOME OF THE IR COOLINGr THE EARTH MUST INCREASE ITS TEMPERATURE TO MAINTAIN EQUILIBRIUM RADIANT HEAT OUTPUT. IN MODERN .. 8 0209 CLIMATE, THE EXISTING GREENHOUSE PRODUCES A 60OF SURFACE WARMING. WITHOUT THIS EFFECT ...THE EARTH WOULD BE LARGELY FROZEN AND LIFE AS WE KNOW IT COULD NOT EXIST. FOR THE SECOND FIGURE...DESCRIBING HOW THE FLOW OF ENERGY IN THE ATMOSPHERE DRIVES CLIMATE NOW . ELEMENTS OF CLIMATE • Climate Response is Governed By Complex Interactions ATMOSPHERE „ CO H,0, tad txouoK / QMM ICE Evaporation Precipitation Winds j Currents ALTHOUGH OUR TOTAL ATMOSPHERE VIEWED FROM OUTSIDE SPACE MUST BE IN EQUILIBRIUM WITH RESPECT TO SOLAR HEATING AND EARTH COOLING, WIDE VARIATIONS IN HEATING CAN EXIST INSIDE OUR ENVIRONMENT. ONCE HEAT IS ABSORBED, IT SETS IN MOTION ALL THE COMPLEX PROCESSES WHICH SHAPE OUR CLIMATE. THE PURPOSE OF CLIMATE MODELS IS TO ATTEMPT TO SORT OUT THESE EFFECTS. CLIMATE REFERS TO THE AVER ¬ AGE TREND OF WEATHER, INCLUDING VARIABILITY. DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF WINDS AND CURRENTS CON ¬ TROL GLOBAL CLIMATE BY TRANSPORTING HEAT OVER LARGE DISTANCES. IMPORTANT FEATURES OF AVERAGE CLIMATE INCLUDE EVAPORATION/ PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD FORMATION...ALL OF WHICH DISPLAY ENORMOUS VARIABILITY - 0 . 9 0210 THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING CLIMATE CHANGE . . . THEN . IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH GREENHOUSE GAS IR RADIATIVE PROPERTIES . BUT RATHER WITH CAPABILITIES TO UNDERSTAND AND FOR EXAMPLE , MODEL THE RESPONSE OF CLIMATE LET ' S BRIEFLY OUTLINE THE EFFECTS OF A ON INCREASING C02 COMPOSITIONAL CHANGE CLIMATE .. .. . ... ... . ELEMENTS OF CLIMATE • Climate Response is Governed By Complex Interactions I coupoemcwt I I I CHANGE SOLAR RADUTtQW ATMOSPHERE ,. , CO H 0, Tncm GUM /CtOUCttN Evaporation Pradpitation Winds Currant* ICE fr> £FORS3TATH>H THE SEA LEVEL ADDED C02 TRAPS SOME ADDITIONAL HEAT WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE BY A SMALL AMOUNT THIS TRIGGERS OTHER CHANGES MODELS SHOW THAT A WARMER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE MOIST WITH MORE WATER VAPOR (A MORE POWERFUL GREENHOUSE GAS) CAUSING EVEN MORE BUT DEPENDING ON CLIMATE RE¬ WARMING SPONSE A N INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY IN¬ CREASE CLOUD FORMATION SHIELDING PARTS OF THE EARTH ' S SURFACE FROM DIRECT SOLAR RADIA ¬ PERHAPS TION, AND COMPENSATING FOR THE ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE WARMING OTHER EFFECTS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD LIKE OCEAN ... . . . .. . ... .. . ... .. . . . .. 10 0211 CURRENTS WARMING . ... CAN ALSO AMPLIFY OR REDUCE IN ADDITION TO ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION CHANGES , WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED TODAY WITH CLIMATE CHANGES FORCED BY MASSIVE DEFORESTA THIS DESTRUCTION ADDS TO THE C02 TION LOADING TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND REMOVES SOME C02 SINK CAPACITY THROUGH PHOTOSYNTHESIS . . FINALLY , OVER VERY LONG GEOLOGICAL TIME SCALES CONTINENTAL DRIFT , SHIFTS IN THE EARTH ' S ORBIT , AND OTHER SOLAR VARIA ¬ TIONS MAY CAUSE CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL AND SOLAR RADIATION WHICH CAN HAVE ENORMOUS EFFECTS ON CLIMATE BUT THESE ARE USUALLY NOT PART OF CURRENT PEG PREDICTIONS ... ... . . HISTORICAL RECORD OF ATMOSPHERIC C02 VARIATION 340 i' 330 8 I960 1970 1990 • Measurements Confirmed In Detail • Increase 3 GTON Cartoon Per tear • Pre-Industrial COa Level 270 ppm (28H Growth) 11 0212 Now I'LL COVER THE HARD DATA WE HAVE ON PEG. FIRST, THE FAMOUS MAUNA LOA (HAWAII) RECORD ¬ INGS SHOWING THE INCREASING CONCENTRATION OF ATMOSPHERIC C02. OBSERVATIONS AT THE SCRIPPS INSTITUTE BEGAN IN 1958 AS PART OF THE INTERNATIONAL GEOPHYSICAL YEAR. THE DATA SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN C02 WITH AN OBVIOUS ANNUAL OSCILLATION. THE PERIODIC VARIATION OCCURS BECAUSE C02 IS DRAWN DOWN DURING THE GROWING SEASON AND RELEASED IN THE FALL AND WINTER. SINCE 1958, C02 HAS RISEN FROM 315 PPM TO ABOUT 345 PPM, TODAY. THESE MEASUREMENTS HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED (± 1 PPM) IN GREAT DETAIL AT SITES FROM THE NORTH POLE TO ANTARCTICA. C02 MIXES RAPIDLY IN THE ATMOSPHERE, SO RESULTS ON THE AVERAGE GROWTH OF C02 ARE SIMILAR ACROSS THE GLOBE. THE NET ACCUMULATION RATE OF CARBON IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABOUT 3 GIGATONS (BILLIONS OF METRIC TONS) PER YEAR CORRESPONDING TO THIS GROWTH. FROM MEASUREMENTS OF AIR BUBBLES TRAPPED IN GLACIAL ICE CORES, IT IS ESTABLISHED THAT THE RECENT BUILDUP OF C02 BEGAN WITH THE INDUSTRIAL ERA. IN THE MID 1800s THE C02 LEVEL WAS ABOUT 270 PPM (* 10 PPM) . C02 GROWTH IS ABOUT 28% SINCE THEN . 12 0213 HISTORICAL RECORD OF FOSSIL FUEL C02 EMISSION S 0 4.4H/Y * - 20 IW INO «70 1 • Growth Resumed Following Reversal in Mid 70s — Growth Rate Again at Historical Levels 4 tt /Yr • If Growth Persists, C02 Doubling Occurs Sooner — By Several Decades THE NEXT DATA SHOW C02 EMISSION FROM FOSSIL FUELS BETWEEN 1950 AND TODAY. THE UNITS ARE BILLIONS OF TONS (GTON) OF CARBON PER YEAR. THERE ARE TWO IMPORTANT POINTS FROM THIS FIGURE: FIRST NOTE THAT MODERN EMISSION RATES ARE MUCH LARGER THAN THE RATE OF ACCUMULATION OF C02 IN THE ATMOSPHERE. RECALL THAT ATMO ¬ SPHERIC C02 IS GROWING BY ABOUT 3 GTON/YR. FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS TODAY ARE ABOUT 5 GTON , AND DEFORESTATION IS THOUGHT TO ADD ABOUT 1 GTON. EXACT VALUES FOR DEFORESTA ¬ TION ARE CONTROVERSIAL. ESTIMATES RANGE FROM LESS THAN 1 TO OVER 2 GTON PER YEAR. NONETHELESS, ONLY ABOUT HALF THE EMITTED C02 STAYS IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THE OTHER HALF IS THOUGHT TO BE ABSORBED INTO THE OCEANS. IT IS ALSO TRUE THAT PLANTS GROW BETTER IN AN ATMOSPHERE ENRICHED IN C02. THAT HAS LED 13 0214 SOME SCIENTISTS TO SUGGEST THAT C02 IS BEING TAKEN UP AND CONVERTED TO BIOMASS. BUT THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO CONFIRM IN STUDIES OF NATURAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS SO FAR. THE SECOND POINT FROM THE FIGURE CONCERNS THE GROWTH IN C02 EMISSION. PRIOR TO THE ARAB OIL EMBARGO, EMISSIONS GREW STEADILY AT ABOUT 4.4% PER YEAR. WHEN THE GREENHOUSE ISSUE WAS FIRST IDENTIFIED IN THE MID 1970S, THAT RATE WAS EXTRAPOLATED TO PROJECT ATMO ¬ SPHERIC C02 LEVELS WOULD DOUBLE EARLY IN THE NEXT CENTURY, SAY 2025. HOWEVER , THE RE ¬ DUCED USE OF FOSSIL FUELS SINCE THEN, CAUSED FORECASTS OF DOUBLING TO MOVE OUT BY SEVERAL DECADES, SAY TILL 2075 2100. THE FIGURE SHOWS THAT THE GROWTH RATE HAS ONCE AGAIN RECOVERED TO PAST HISTORICAL LEVELS IF THE HIGHER GROWTH PERSISTS, THE DOUBLING TIME WILL AGAIN MOVE CLOSER BY SEVERAL DECADES. - - . HISTORICAL RECORD OF GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE Noteworthy Difference * With Greenhouse Predictions £ 55 • Recent Warming Reverses Cooling From 1940-1970 — — * 1980s Wannest Decade on Record Persistent fiend Could Signal Greenhouse Warming . • US 1988 Summer Heat and Drought A Critical Media Event — — — Not a Predicted Consequence of Greenhouse Warming Due to a Natural Weather Fluctuation Cited as an Example of Future fiends 1A 0215 THE W FINAL DATA SET COVERS PAST VARIATION IN GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE. OF COURSE, GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS A STATISTICAL CONCEPT. IT CANNOT BE DIRECTLY MEASURED. THERE ARE SERIOUS ISSUES CONCERNING COM ¬ PLETENESS, ACCURACY, AND INTERPRETATION OF THIS HISTORICAL DATA. HOWEVER , THE PROBLEM IS RECEIVING A GREAT DEAL OF ATTENTION, AND MOST STUDIES SHOW RESULTS SIMILAR TO THESE. THE 0 DATA SHOW A RELATIVELY LARGE SCATTER OF A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE FROM YEAR TO YEAR. THIS "NOISE" OCCURS FROM NATURAL FLUCTUA ¬ TIONS THAT ARE NOT COMPLETELY UNDERSTOOD. IT IS KNOWN THAT EVENTS LIKE VOLCANIC ERUP ¬ TIONS AND CHANGES IN OCEANIC UPWELLING (SUCH AS EL NINO), CAUSE PART OF THE VARIABILITY. THE DASHED TREND LINE ILLUSTRATES THE GENER AL BEHAVIOR. THE RECORD SHOWS AN APPARENT RISE OF ABOUT 1/20 C OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS. - HOWEVER, THE WARMING DOES NOT AGREE WITH MODELS BASED ON C02 VARIATIONS. IN PARTI¬ CULAR, ENHANCED GREENHOUSE MODELS PREDICT A SMOOTHLY ACCELERATING INCREASE OF TEMPERA ¬ TURE WITH TIME (SHOWN IN RED) . THE DATA ARE QUITE DIFFERENT. MOST NOTICEABLE IS A COOLING TREND BETWEEN THE 1930s AND LATE 1970S WHEN THE MODEL PREDICTS WARMING. DATA d ON TEMPERATURE VARIATION IN THE 1980S ARE NOW BECOMING AVAILABLE. THEY SHOW A REVERSAL OF THE RECENT COOLING TREND. IN FACT, THE 3 WARMEST YEARS ON RECORD OCCURRED IN THE 1980S IF THIS TREND PERSISTS IT . 15 0216 # COULD SIGNAL THAT ENHANCED GREENHOUSE WARMING IS FINALLY BECOMING DETECTABLE. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE 1988 HEAT AND DROUGHT WERE A CRITICAL EVENT IN THE GREEN ¬ HOUSE ISSUE, BECAUSE THEY STIRRED PUBLIC ATTENTION, AND BROUGHT HOME POTENTIAL CONSE ¬ QUENCES OF CLIMATE WARMING. HOWEVER , 1988 WAS NOT A PREDICTED CONSEQUENCE OF ENHANCED GREENHOUSE MODELS. MOST METEOROLOGISTS INTERPRET THE SUMMER AS AN INFREQUENT, BUT NOT UNEXPECTED FLUCTUATION IN WEATHER. GREENHOUSE SCIENTISTS BY AND LARGE HAVE NOT CLAIMED THE US HEAT AND DROUGHT WERE CAUSED BY ENHANCED GREENHOUSE, BUT THEY HAVE CITED IT AS AN EXAMPLE OF WHAT PEG MIGHT BRING. SO 0 FAR WE HAVE DISCUSSED THE HISTORICAL RECORD, AND SHOWN THE IMPORTANT DATA. HOWEVER, PEG IMPACTS OCCUR IN THE FUTURE. So NOW WE TURN TO PROJECTIONS. PROJECTED SOURCES OF ENERGY AND C02 EMISSION ENERGY 2000 CH3 Nuclear, Solar And Hydro Electric Power CD SolWa mat Gas mm on =r 9 s i - A 1000 A B C 0 B B 1975 2000 2025 • Future Emission Sensitive to Forecasts of Energy Demand, Source — Projections Differ Significantly Beyond Near Term 16 0217 FORECASTS C02 BEGIN OF FUTURE LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC BY PROJECTING ENERGY NEEDS AND SOURCES WELL INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. THE FIGURE SHOWS THREE FORECASTS OF ENERGY DEMAND TAKEN FROM A DOE STUDY, LABELED CASE A , B, AND C. THE UNIT OF ENERGY IS 1018 JOULES, WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS QUADS, OR QUADRILLIONS OF BTUS. CASE B IS CLOSE TO RECENT EXXON PROJECTIONS. PROJECTED SOURCES OF ENERGY AND C02 EMISSION CO,/BTU INDEX (Relative to Oil) ENERGY 2000 \- i . d Nuclear Soler And Hydro Electric Synthetic Liquid 2.2 ana OH « 3 Conventional Power CD Solids B Gas A 1000 1 A B C 0 1975 2000 B C 2025 Gas Oil Coal Coal Shale Gas • Future Emission Sensitive to Forecasts of Energy Demand, Source — Projections Differ Significantly Beyond Near Term IT IS WELL KNOWN THAT FOSSIL FUELS EMPLOYED TO SATISFY THE DEMANDS, DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF C02 RELEASED TO PRODUCE A BTU OF ENERGY. THIS PART OF THE FIGURE COMPARES FOSSIL FUELS ON A RELATIVE SCALE WHERE EMISSIONS PER BTU FROM CONVENTIONAL OIL ARE TAKEN AS ONE. THEN, GAS IS 0.7 AND COAL IS 1.25. WE ALSO SHOW THE INDEX VALUES FOR SYNTHETIC LIQUIDS. SYNTHETIC LIQUIDS FROM COAL AND SHALE RESULT IN GREATER C02 EMISSIONS THE EXTRA C02 IS GENERATED IN THE MANUFACTURING PROCESS. ESPECIALLY FOR SYNTHETICS FROM . 17 0218 COAL AND SHALE THE C02 FACTOR IS SENSITIVE TO THE RAW MATERIAL AND PROCESS ROUTE. LIQUIDS DERIVED DIRECTLY FROM GAS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER C02 INDICES. PROJECTED SOURCES OF ENERGY AND C02 EMISSION C02 EMISSION ENERGY __ r CD Nuclear. Solar Power CD Solids B Gas i 5 (ED s 2 3 p A B paijC «% n i Smm3 1975 ES3 Coal ED Syngas mm QJS Oil - * & CD Synod 2. 30 A 1000 Shale Oil am on I And Hydro Electric 2000 IMim immmnmi 2000 s 20 6 10 fnmm iiiimimii 2025 0 a 1975 »»iii 2000 2025 Future Emission Sensitive to Forecasts of Energy Demand, Source Projections Differ Significantly Beyond Near Term — . . (A, B, & C).. EACH ENERGY DEMAND CASE. . THIS C02 GENERATION INDEX CAN BE USED TO COMPUTE C02 EMISSIONS AS SHOWN IN THE FINAL FIGURE. CASE A WITH THE GREATEST ENERGY DEMAND ALSO PRODUCES MUCH HIGHER C02 EMIS ¬ SIONS, SINCE IT RELIES ON HIGH C02 PRODUCING FUELS FROM SYNTHETICS. OVERALL FORECASTS DIFFER WIDELY BEYOND THE NEAR TERM EXTEND ¬ ED OUT TO 2100 THEY VARY BY FACTORS OF 20 IN C02 EMISSION LEVELS. FOR . 18 0219 PROJECTED GROWTH OF ATMOSPHERIC C02 • Combine Forecasts: Economic Growth, Energy Use, C03 Growth MM • Atmospheric C02 Doubles (600 ppm) —— — Case A: 2030 Case B: 2060 Case C: 2100 BY COMBINING THESE THREE TYPES OF PROJEC ¬ TIONS FOR THE FUTURE . TOTAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION C02 EMISSION FACTORS FOR VARIOUS FOSSIL FUELS AND DISTRIBUTION OF FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY CON ¬ SUMPTION BY RESOURCE. .. • • • .. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FORECAST FUTURE LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC C02. FORECASTS FOR THE 2080. THE 3 PROJECTIONS SHOW DOE CASES THROUGH THE YEAR IN THESE FORECASTS THE C02 DOUBLING TIME IS A CONVENIENT BENCHMARK TO MEASURE C02 BUILD ¬ UP. (IT IS THE LEVEL CONSIDERED IN MOST CLIMATE SIMULATIONS OF THE GREENHOUSE EF ¬ FECT.) HOWEVER, THERE IS NOTHING MAGICAL ABOUT DOUBLING ITSELF. TAKING THE DOUBLING LEVEL TO BE 600 700 PPM, THE VARIOUS CASES LEAD TO A DOUBLING BETWEEN 2030 AND 2100 AS INDICATED - . 19 0220 POTENTIAL CLIMATE IMPACT FROM C02: NEXT 100 YEARS ‘CHANGING CLIMATE” , NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 1983 • Temperature — — Global Mean Temperature Increase ... 1.5 - 4.5°C Greater Warming In Polar Regions (2- 3 x ) • Sea Level/Sea Ice — — Coverage and Thickness of Sea Ice/Glaciation Will Decrease Sea Level Rise (Meltwater + Thermal Expansion) ... 70 cm • Natural Ecosystems and Agriculture — — — Regional Climate Change: Temperature, Hydrology Enhanced Productivity From Increased C03 Global Net Effect Uncertain THESE C02 PROJECTIONS ARE USED IN CURRENT CLIMATE MODELS TO PREDICT IMPORTANT CHANGES OVER THE NEXT 100 YEARS. THIS SET OF RESULTS IS TAKEN FROM THE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL (NRC) REPORT "CHANGING CLIMATE". CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS CALL FOR WARMING BETWEEN 1.5 4.5 OC FOR DOUBLED C02 WITH GREATER WARMING AT THE POLES. NOTE THAT THESE NUMBERS REFLECT THE RANGE PRODUCED BY AVAILABLE MODELS NO ONE KNOWS HOW TO EVAL ¬ UATE THE ABSOLUTE UNCERTAINTY IN THE NUM ¬ BERS. - . THE EXTENT AND THICKNESS OF GLACIERS ARE PREDICTED TO DECREASE, LEADING TO SEA LEVEL RISE. THE NRC REPORT CHOSE A MOST LIKELY VALUE OF 70 CM SEA LEVEL RISE. OTHER PRE ¬ DICTIONS SUGGEST A BROADER RANGE FROM 30 200 CM. THE RISE OCCURS BOTH FROM A LARGER AMOUNT OF WATER IN THE OCEANS, AND FROM THERMAL EXPANSION. - 20 0221 FINALLY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND HIGHER LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC C02 AFFECT AGRICULTURE AND ECOSYSTEMS. THERE ARE TWO ASPECTS FIRST, THE DIRECT EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ALTERS THE LENGTH OF THE GROWING SEASON AND THE AVAILABILITY OF WATER. SECOND, NEARLY ALL PLANTS GROW MORE RAPIDLY, AND USE LESS WATER , IN A HIGH C02 ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND EFFECT CAN BE QUITE POSITIVE FOR MANAGED AGRICULTURE. . MODELS CANNOT YET PREDICT REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE WITH MUCH ACCURACY I AM SURE YOU HAVE ALL HEARD THAT THE US MID WEST MAY BECOME A DUST BOWL FROM ENHANCED GREENHOUSE, WHILE RUSSIA MAY BECOME MORE FRUITFUL. THAT I§ A PROJECTION OF SOME MODELS, BUT OTHERS SHOW THE OPPOSITE. . - THE CLIMATE MODEL IMPACTS OF PEG ARE NOT ALL NEGATIVE. THEY AFFECT DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE GLOBE UNEQUALLY. THE MODELS PREDICT VARIOUS WINNERS AND LOSERS. THIS COMPLETES THE CUSSION. GREENHOUSE SCIENCE DIS¬ SUMMARIZING: DATA " " CONFIRM THAT GREENHOUSE GASES ARE INCREASING IN THE ATMOSPHERE. FOSSIL FUELS CONTRIBUTE MOST OF THE C02. .BUT DEFORESTATION IS . ALSO SIGNIFICANT. u 0222 AND t HISTORICAL TEMPERATURES SHOW ONLY SLIGHT WARMING...NOT ENOUGH TO CONFIRM ENHANCED GREENHOUSE. THAT'S ALL THE DATA. PROJECTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE CHANGE WITH A " VARIETY OF REGIONAL IMPACTS . AND LEVEL RISE WITH GENERALLY " SEA NEGATIVE . CONSEQUENCES FINALLY, THE SIZE AND TIMING OF IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN. POTENTIAL ENHANCED GREENHOUSE PLAYERS — CONGRESS/PRESIDENT EM/DOE/STATE NQAA/HASA/NSF AND TNI MEDIA • jM GENERAL ASSEMBLY - "WORLD COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT" UNEP/WMO CANADA PRIME MINISTER FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL MINISTRY • INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS 0 EEC I OECD • ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS 22 0223 _ 9 THE KEY PLAYERS ON PEG ARE IN THE US AND UN. IN THE US, CONGRESS IS VERY INTERESTED. SENATORS LIKE MIRTH, MITCHELL, BAUCUS, AND GORE HAVE VERY HIGH PROFILES. PRESIDENT BUSH HAS COMMITTED TO CONVENE A GLOBAL GREENHOUSE CONFERENCE. WITHIN THE ADMINISTRATION, THE PLAYERS ARE EPA (WHICH HAS A PARTICULARLY CRITICAL ROLE THROUGH ITS INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES), DOE (WHICH SPONSORED AN EXTENSIVE REVIEW OF THE SUBJECT COMPLETED IN 1985), AND THE STATE DEPARTMENT (WHOSE INTERESTS ARE DIRECTED TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTIONS). IN ADDITION, TECHNICAL AGENCIES INCLUDING NOAA, NASA, AND NSF HAVE SIGNIFICANT ROLES...AND , OF COURSE, THE MEDIA IS VERY ACTIVE. # ALL OF THESE EFFORTS ARE ESTABLISHING LINKS WITH OTHER NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL INTER ¬ ESTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UN WHICH HAS DEVOT¬ ED A GREAT DEAL OF EFFORT TO PEG THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY ESTABLISHED A WORLD WIDE COMMISSION HEADED BY MME. GRO BRUNDTLAND (PRIME MINISTER OF NORWAY) TO EVALUATE PROBLEMS OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THE COMMISSION'S REPORT..."OUR COMMON FUTURE . .CONTAINS A HEAVY DOSE OF GREENHOUSE CONCERNS. ON CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE, ENERGY...AND LISTS IT AS THE #1 ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM WE FACE. THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY HAS DIRECTED ALL OF ITS AGENCIES TO DEVELOP SPECIFIC PLANS TO DEAL . . . - .. WITH PEG. THE UNITED NATIONS ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM (UNEP) is ONE OF THESE AGENCIES AND IT HAS 23 0224 # MADE PEG ITS #1 PRIORITY. UNEP...LIKE EPA HAS A CRITICAL ROLE...HAVING BEEN DIRECTED TO DEVELOP DETAILED PLANS WITH THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (UMO) FOR ACTION PROGRAMS AND POLICY PROPOSALS TO BE RECOM ¬ MENDED TO THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER PLAYERS. THE CANADIANS, INCLUDING THEIR PRIME MINISTER AND FEDERAL ENVIRONMENTAL MINISTRY, HAVE BEEN...PERHAPS...THE MOST OUTSPOKEN GOVERN ¬ MENT IN RESPONDING TO THE NEED FOR GREEN ¬ HOUSE LIMITATIONS. THEY SPONSORED A WORLD ON PEG DURING THIS PAST JUNE...WHICH CALLED FOR 20% REDUCTION IN C02 EMISSIONS BY 2010 WITH AN OVERALL GOAL OF 50% REDUCTION .AND A TAX ON FOSSIL FUELS TO FUND ALTERNATE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT. CONFERENCE .. THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SCIENTIFIC UNIONS (ICSU) IS PROVIDING A FORUM FOR - WORLD WIDE SCIENTIFIC EFFORTS UNDER THE "INTERNATIONAL BIOPHYSICAL THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY BANNER OF THE YEAR". (EEC) is PURSUING ITS POSITION AND DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN THE OECD HAVE ESTABLISHED ACTIVITIES TO PARTICIPATE IN THE EXPECTED DEBATE. OF COURSE, NUMEROUS ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS...INCLUDING HIGH PROFILE ORGANIZA ¬ TIONS LIKE THE GREENS, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE, AND NATIONAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL.. HAVE NOW INVESTED A LOT OF TIME AND EFFORT IN EXPERTISE RELATED TO ENERGY AND GREENHOUSE HAVING INVESTED SIGNIFICANT . A . 24 0225 EFFORT, THEY NEED...AND INTEND...TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. Sfflfp»iro ACTIVITIES - PEC US PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANCE • INTERGOVERJKENTAL WITH 1K0 ICSU REPOtTS ON • -EPAPoTEHTIAL CONSCQUENCES US UOBLO 1988 • -DOEASSESSMENT 1989 ( / ) FOB - 1988 / MXTXfiATZON/STABXLXZATION APPROACHES - OF KU ON ALTEBMATE ENEMY INVENTOBY OF CBUNHOUSE CASES ANALYSIS OF PBZVATZ SCCTOB OPTIONS " POLICY OPTIONS - TO LIMIT EMISSIONS • US INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE ASSESSMENT / 1990 UN 8 COORDINATE WORLDWIDE SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT Utt/ICSU 1990 • REGIONAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTS 1990 POLICY OPTIONS TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANCE INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGES 1990 MID '90'S THE INTENSITY OF THESE EFFORTS IS REFLECTED IN THE SLATE OF ACTIVITIES CURRENTLY SCHED ¬ ULED. FOR EXAMPLE, IN '88 THE US, THROUGH NOAA AND NASA, SET UP AN INTERGOVERNMENTAL CLIMATE PANEL WITH WMO AND ICSU TO PROMOTE LIAISON BETWEEN GOVERNMENTS...AND EPA WAS TO REPORT TO CONGRESS ON BOTH POTENTIAL CONSE¬ QUENCES OF PEG FOR THE US/WORLD AND... MITIGATION/STABILIZATION APPROACHES TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE. THIS REPORT IS NOW DUE IN 1989 DOE WILL BE VERY BUSY. IN 1989, IT . 25 0226 9 IS DUE TO DEVELOP REPORTS ON VARIOUS ASPECTS OF PEG INCLUDING: " " " ASSESSING ALTERNATE ENERGY R&D CATALOGUING GREENHOUSE GASES ANALYZING ENERGY OPTIONS FOR THE PRI ¬ VATE SECTOR AND " EVALUATING POLICY C02 EMISSIONS OPTIONS FOR LIMITING FINALLY, NSF IS PLANNING A US/INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE ASSESSMENT BY 1990. THE UN ^ • HAS RECENTLY COMMISSIONED A WORLDWIDE SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT DESIGNATING UMO TO WORK CLOSELY WITH ICSU. BY THE WAY, NSF WILL ALSO COORDINATE CLOSELY WITH THIS EFFORT IN DEVELOPING ITS VIEWS. REGIONAL IMPACT STUDIES ARE BEING SET UP USING CLI¬ MATE MODELS TO PROJECT THE VARIOUS WINNERS AND LOSERS AS RAINFALL, WIND, STORMS, AND SEA LEVEL PATTERNS CHANGE. THIS COULD BE ESPECIALLY CONTENTIOUS BECAUSE OF THE WIDE ROOM FOR INTERPRETATION IN APPLYING THE MODELS AND THE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES. CONCURRENTLY, UNEP WILL DEVELOP ITS VIEW OF POLICY OPTIONS TO LIMIT CLIMATE CHANGE ALL OF THESE ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED FOR COMPLETION IN 1990 UNEP HAS BEEN URGED TO AIM FOR AN INTERNATIONAL CONVENTION ON PEG BY ABOUT 1995 HOWEVER, THIS TARGET DATE SEEMS TO BE ADVANCING . TOWARDS . . 1992. 26 0227 GIVEN, • • • AND • THE... COMPLEXITY OF THE SCIENCE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL GLOBAL IMPACTS DIVERSITY OF THE PLAYERS .. INTENSITY OF THEIR ACTIVITIES. IS ALL THIS HEADED? I BELIEVE THERE IS A PATTERN. .AND IT'S ROOTED IN THE EVOLU ¬ TION OF THE JUST COMPLETED MONTREAL PROTO ¬ COLS TO PROTECT THE STRATOSPHERIC 03 LAYER BY LIMITING MAN MADE CFCS WHERE . - . STRATOSPHERIC OZONE / PEG ANALOGY ENHANCED GREENHOUSE ATMOSPHERIC CHEM / PHYS GROWTH IN ICFC'SI / C02 l ( TRACE QASESI INDUSTRIAL SOURCES MODELS: END EFFECT PROJECTIONS CONCEPT OF ‘DELAY* ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSE INTERNATIONAL OWNERSHIP US / UN AXIS CRITICAL EVENT CALL FOR ACTION 74 / / J '67 / 76 / 7 7 7 VIENNA CONVENTION MONTREAL PROTOCOLS ABOUT 20 YEARS AGO, THE ATMOSPHERIC CHEMIS ¬ TRY AND PHYSICS BEGAN WITH CONCERNS OVER THE EFFECT OF SUPERSONIC TRANSPORTS ON THE 03 AS THESE FEARS ABATED.. IN 1974 LAYER SOME SCIENTISTS' LABORATORY TESTS INDICATED THAT THE VERY STABLE CLASS OF MAN MADE CHEMICALS (CFCS) BREAK DOWN UNDER THE KIND . ... . - & 0228 OF INTENSE UV RADIATION THAT IS PRESENT IN THE STRATOSPHERE...WITH THE RESULTING CL AND BR ATOMS ATTACKING AND DESTROYING O3. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT WAS ESTABLISHED THAT THE CFC CONCENTRATIONS WERE INCREASING IN THE STRATOSPHERE. THESE CFCs , OF COURSE, WERE - EASILY TRACED TO MAN MADE SOURCES AND INDUS ¬ TRIAL APPLICATIONS. EXTENSIVE t THE " THE . MODELING EXERCISES PREDICTED. . LONG TERM RATE OF O3 LAYER DETERI ¬ ORATION RESULTING INCREASED UV PENETRATION OF THE EARTH'S ATMOSPHERE AND " THE SERIOUS POTENTIAL REPERCUSSIONS LIKE INCREASED HUMAN CANCER RATES AND PLANT DAMAGE Now THESE PREDICTED EFFECTS WERE WELL INTO THE FUTURE. So A CRUCIAL STEP WAS THE , INTRODUCTION OF fA DELAY CONCEPT11 BASED ON THE UNUSUAL CHEMICAL STABILITY OF CFCs IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND THE VERY LONG TRANSPORT TIMES FOR CFCs TO REACH THE UPPER STRATOSPHERE. THE REASONING WAS...THERE WAS AN ALREADY COMMITTED 03 LAYER DETERIORATION BASED ON CFCS ALREADY "IN THE PIPELINE". THIS GAVE RISE TO AN ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSE WHICH WAS QUICKLY ADOPTED AS AN INTERNATION ¬ AL ISSUE. THE PLAYERS WERE BASICALLY SIMI¬ LAR TO THOSE ORGANIZING AROUND THE CURRENT 28 0229 # GREENHOUSE ISSUE...PRIMARILY IN THE US AND UN. WHEN THE US BECAME ACTIVELY IN ¬ VOLVED...INITIATING COOPERATION WITH THE UN TO LIMIT WORLDWIDE CFC PRODUCTION AND SALES. ALL OF THE ELEMENTS WERE IN PLACE. .. BUT WITH ALL OF THIS, PROGRESS BEGAN TO LANGUISH AND THE EFFORT MIGHT WELL HAVE FOUNDERED, EXCEPT FOR THE DISCOVERY OF THE SO CALLED "03 LAYER HOLE" OVER ANTARCTICA. THIS WAS A MOST CRITICAL EVENT ALTHOUGH ITS EXACT RELEVANCE TO CFC RELATED 03 LAYER DETERIORATION REMAINS UNEXPLAINED. IT RE ENERGIZED THE EFFORT AND DIRECTLY LED TO A "CALL FOR ACTION" AND THE VIENNA CONVEN ¬ TION. SHORTLY THEREAFTER...IN 1987...THE MONTREAL PROTOCOLS TO LIMIT CFCS WITH A PHASED 50% REDUCTION BY THE TURN OF THE CENTURY WERE APPROVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ADOPTED. 1 SHOULD ADD THAT IN 1988...JUST WITHIN THE PAST 6 MONTHS OR SO...THERE IS FOR THE FIRST TIME CONVINCING SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE THAT 03 LAYER DETERIORATION HAS BEEN DETECTED. SO THAT AFTER THE FACT...SOME ACTION SEEMS JUSTIFIED. - - - A NOW, I HOPE FROM THE MATERIAL COVERED ON GREENHOUSE SO FAR...IT IS CLEAR THAT WE HAVE ADVANCED THROUGH SIMILAR STAGES. A CRITICAL EVENT OCCURRED WITH THE "LONG HOT SUMMER OF '88". ALTHOUGH MOST RESPONSIBLE SCIENTISTS A BELIEVE THIS WAS DUE TO NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS IN WEATHER PATTERNS...IT HAS DRAWN MUCH ATTENTION TO THE POTENTIAL PROBLEMS AND WE'RE STARTING TO HEAR THE INEVITABLE CALL EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS NOW IS NOT FOR ACTION . 29 0230 . CLEAR. .BUT THIS CRITICAL EVENT HAS ENER GIZED THE GREENHOUSE EFFORT AND RAISED PUBLIC CONCERN OVER PEG . SOME KEY PERCEPTIONS/MISCOHCEPTIOHS... • • "PEG" IS PART OF/CLOSELY LINKED TO "03 LAYER PROTECTION* ENOUGH RESEARCH HAS IEEN DONE ExiSTtNCt or PEG Is Now ESTABLISHES " ADVANCING THK SCIENCK HILL TABS TOO LOMB 88 SUMER HAS DUE TO PEG 0 CAN'T TOLERATE DELAY NEED POLICY DEVELOPMENT NOW PROJECTED SHIRS IN HEATHER HILL FEATURE RIG HINNCRS AND LOSERS HITH MAJOR POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES HILL SHIR RESOURCES TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES NUCLEAR AND/OR RENEUABLE ENERGY RESOURCES CAN SOLVE THE PROBLEM • - •• •• OVERALL... ! B RISK FROM PEG CLIMATE CHANGES IS NOT ACCEPTA IE... MUST OEVELOP(IMPLEMENT) CONTROL POLICIES NOH IN FACING THIS REALITY, THERE ARE SOME KEY PERCEPTIONS AND MISCONCEPTIONS WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST MISCONCEPTION IS THAT PEG AND 03 LAYER ARE SOMEHOW THE SAME PROB ¬ LEM...OR AT LEAST CLOSELY LINKED. THIS IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS BECAUSE THE TWO PROBLEMS ARE, IN FACT, VERY DIFFERENT ANO EFFECTIVE SOLUTIONS ARE BOUND TO BE VERY DIFFERENT...BANNING A SINGLE CLASS OF MAN MADE CFC CHEMICALS IS VERY DIFFI¬ CULT...BUT PALES BY COMPARISON TO THE DIFFICULTIES OF APPLYING SIMILAR APPROACHES TO LIFE CYCLE GASES LIKE C02 AND WATER. - Jf5 0231 THE SECOND MISCONCEPTION IS THAT ENOUGH RESEARCH ON THE BASIC PROBLEM HAS BEEN DONE. FAILURE TO UNDERSTAND THE NEED FOR SUBSTAN ¬ TIAL ADVANCES IN THE SCIENCE TO REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTY AND EXTREME VARIABILITY IN THE PROJECTIONS CAN LEAD TO PREMATURE LIMITA ¬ TIONS ON FOSSIL FUELS. USING THE '88 SUMMER WEATHER PATTERNS AS PART OF THIS ARGUMENT...THE THIRD MISCONCEP ¬ TION...IS SIMPLY INCORRECT. ARGUMENTS THAT WE CAN'T TOLERATE DELAY AND MUST ACT NOW CAN LEAD TO IRREVERSIBLE AND COSTLY DRACONIAN STEPS. PROJECTING PEG INDUCED CLIMATIC REGIONAL WINNERS AND LOSERS...AND COMPETITION BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN RA ¬ TIONING ENERGY TO LIMIT PEG COULD EASILY DOMINATE ANY DEBATE AND MAKE RATIONAL CO ¬ OPERATION LESS LIKELY ... . THERE HAVE BEEN DRAMATIC SHIFTS IN ATTITUDES TOWARDS NUCLEAR ENERGY BY ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS BECAUSE OF THEIR CONCERNS OVER PEG. FURTHERMORE, RENEWABLE ENERGY ADVOCATES HAVE TRADITIONALLY OVERSTATED CAPABILITIES. THESE BOTH TEND TO ENCOURAGE A PRECIPITOUS SHIFT TO ALTERNATE ENERGY AND UNDERSTATE THE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTIES WHICH MUST BE OVERCOME. 31 0232 WHAT ’S NEXT • Continued Pressure to... OVERSTATE SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING • Prominent Medis Role to... INCREASE PUBLIC CONCERNS • More Initistives to... INCREASE PACE OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS Rational Reaoonaaa • Require: Efforts to... EXTEND THE SCIENCE • Emphasis on... 'Adaptation' COSTS /POLITICAL REALITIES As FOR "WHAT'S NEXT"...WE CAN EXPECT CONTIN ¬ UED PRESSURE TO OVERSTATE CURRENT SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING. THE MEDIA ROLE...ALREADY PROMINENT. .IS LIKELY TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS AND CONCERN, AND THERE WILL BE CONTINUING INITIATIVES TO EXTEND INTERNA ¬ TIONAL NEGOTIATIONS. AS THE DEGREE OF THESE EFFORTS EXCEED UNDERSTANDING (OR ABILITY TO RESPOND CONSTRUCTIVELY) ...THERE IS A TENDEN ¬ CY TOWARDS A "CRISIS MENTALITY." MEANWHILE, MORE RATIONAL RESPONSES WILL REQUIRE EFFORTS TO EXTEND THE SCIENCE AND INCREASE EMPHASIS ON COSTS AND POLITICAL REALITIES TO FRAME "ADAPTIVE" MEASURES WHICH ARE DOABLE AND MOVE TOWARDS CONSTRUCTIVE OPTIONS. . EXXON’S POSITION • IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING Extend the Science Include the Coste /Economics Face the Socio- Political Realities • STRESS ENVIRONMENTALLY SOUND ADAPTIVE EFFORTS Support Conservation Restrict CFCs Improve Global Re /De Forestation 32 0233 # TO BE A RESPONSIBLE PARTICIPANT AND PART OF THE SOLUTION TO PEG, EXXON'S POSITION SHOULD RECOGNIZE AND SUPPORT 2 BASIC SOCIETAL NEEDS. FIRST ..TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROBLEM...NOT JUST THE SCIENCE.. BUT THE COSTS AND ECONOMICS TEMPERED BY THE SOCIO ¬ POLITICAL REALITIES THAT'S GOING TO TAKE YEARS (PROBABLY DECADES) . BUT THERE ARE MEASURES ALREADY UNDERWAY THAT WILL IMPROVE OUR ENVIRONMENT IN VARIOUS WAYS.. AND IN ADDITION REDUCE THE GROWTH IN GREENHOUSE GASES. THAT'S THE SECOND NEED INCLUDING THINGS LIKE ENERGY CONSERVATION , RESTRICTION OF CFC EMISSIONS, AND EFFORTS TO INCREASE THE GLOBAL RATIO OF RE/DE FORESTATION. OF COURSE, WE'LL NEED TO DEVELOP OTHER RESPONSE OPTIONS...IMPLEMENTING MEASURES WHEN THEY ARE COST EFFECTIVE IN THE NEAR TERM AND PURSUING NEW TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE FUTURE. . . . . 0 33