04 Ed! 5 Date 3/ To: From: Joseph M. Carlson ?77m if . 4?51" ?z??JH?i?a -wf/rid? g, w/ {kg ,4;sz ?a if? QK quv? CAL: 0? J-{z A .271,? (aw-.7 ?a 9L7 Ltd-gr H1. ?Li-v/ xvii?! add-?7 1 .. gag?ML Ww?1.4. 1,6150%wa 229Canma?af??t?r?bk 1, If (L5 uysnv sum; JO Ausjangun aql ?bolsn THE EFFECT ISSUE THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT REFERS TO ATMOSPHERIC GASES HHICH RETAIN REFLECTED SOLAR RADIATION, HHICH Is ESSENTIAL TO THE SUPPORT OF LIFE ON EARTH. CURRENT CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED HITH THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT, OR THE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO AN INCREASED RATE OF BUILD-UP OF. GREENHOUSE GASES. BACKGROUND THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT MAY BE ONE OF THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES FOR THE 19905. GASES THAT FAVOR ABSORPTION OF INFRARED (IR) RADIATION: CARBON DIOXIDE. HATER VAPOR, METHANE, NITROUS OXIDE, CHLORO-FLUOROCARBONS, AND HALOGENS. .1..- unsnv n: 512x91 J0 Kuwaagun JDI mama "(1 an In cunn-nuu 0 THE PRINCIPAL GREENHOUSE GASES ARE BY-PRODUCTS OF FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION. EENHANCEQP GREENHOUSE EFFECT MOLECULES OF 602 UHICH ARE EFFICIENT ABSORBERS OF REFLECTEO SOLAR IR CAN CAUSE DISPROPORTIONATE WARMING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. 0 THIS WARMING INCREASES THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IN TURN INCREASING- NATER VAPORIZATION . 0 WATER VAPOR MOLECULES ARE ALSO EFFICIENT IR ABSORBERS AND GREATLY MAGNHIFY THE ORIGINAL C02 EFFECT. OTHER ATMOSPHERIC CASES LIKE TRACE OUANTITIES OF CHLORO-FLUOROCARBONS CAN TRIGGER THE WATER VAPOR WARMING CYCLE. THERE IS NO CONSENSUS ON THE NET EFFECT OF THESE PROCESSES. THERE IS SCIENTIFIC AGREEMENT POINTS: - ATMOSPHERIC 602 IS INCREASING ANO COULD DOUBLE IN 100 YEARS. 1L .1.- ugsnv n: suxaigo Aumangun In] ls?m'v'x mam." urlmn -.. - FOSSIL FUELS CONTRIBUTE ABOUT FIVE BILLION 0F C02. BEFOR- ESTATION ADDS BILLION TONS PER YEAR. 3LIMATE MODELS 0 MOST DEBATE CENTERS 0N PROJECTING FUTURE IMPACT USING CLIMATE MODELS. THESE MODELS ARE EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND REQUIRE TRACKING ?02 INTERACTIONS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND BIOSPHERE AND MUST ADDRESS THE ROLE OF TRACE GASES, OCEANS, CLOUDS, BIOMASS AND LARGE ICE FORMATIONS AT THE POLES. THESE INTERACTIONS ARE NOT HELL UNDERSTOOD. - THE CLIMATE MODELS ARE NOT VERY RELIABLE BECAUSE APPROXIMATIONS ARE USED TO REPRESENT POORLY UNDERSTOOD INTERACTIONS. CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT A 1.50 T0 4.50 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IN 100 YEARS - DEPENDING ON THE PROJECTED GROWTH IN FOSSIL FUEL USE. .1 ii. 1B sex; 1. J0 Algmaagun at?. mu run-v5 and-Noun SUCH HARMINC COULD RESULT IN PARTIAL POLAR ICE CAP MELTING NITH ASSOCIATED SEA LEVEL RISE AND SINCE C02 AND H20 VAPOR AID PLANT CRONTH, THERE COULD BE AN ACCELERATION OR ALTERATION IN VECETATION GRONTH PATTERNS FAVORINC SELECTED SPECIES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY THE SEVERITY OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF THE ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT. ACTUAL MEASUREMENTS OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHON NO CLEAR PATTERN OVER A ZO-VEAR PERIOD FROM 1960 TO 1980. WHEN PROJECTED AT A RATE CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 20 INCREASE OVER 100 YEARS, THE TREND DOES NOT ESCAPE FROM THE UNCERTAINTY BAND FOR ANOTHER 10 YEARS. EFFORTS REDUCTION IN CHLORO-FLUOROCARBON EMISSIONS TO PROTECT OZONE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. .. uusnv 1D SEXQL J0 In] ?on-Noun "Jon." - PROTECTION OF MAJOR GLOBAL FOREST RESOURCES. CONTINUING THE EMPHASIS ON EFFICIENCY IN ENERGY GENERATION AND USE. NORLOHIDE RESEARCH NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH PROGRAMS ARE BEING ESTABLISHED TO MONITOR AND EVALUATE THE GREENHOUSE PHENOMENON. IN THE U.S., ABOUT $25 MILLION PER YEAR IS BUDGETED FOR DIRECT C02 GREEN- HOUSE RESEARCH. EXXON RESEARCH IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS EXXON HAS SUPPORTED BOTH IN-HOUSE AND THEORETICAL STUDIES AND OUTSIDE RESEARCH PROGRAMS AT KEY INSTITUTIONS. - LAMONT DOHERTY GEOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY 1111an 19 513st ]0 Anyanlun mu ?1 In! ?n?t?tl? "(l-run on - COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY CLIMATE CENTER (TOTAL FUNDS FOR BOTH ABOUT 5.6 MILLION) EXXON SCIENTISTS ARE INTERACTING WITH KEY GOVERNMENT AGENCIES INCLUDING THE UNITED ENVIRONMENTAL PROGRAM, IPECA, OECD, DOE, AND U.S. EPA. EXXON IS PROVIDING LEADERSHIP THROUGH API IN DEVELOPING THE PETROLEUM INDUSTRY POSITION. EXXON POSITION EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN SCIENTIFIC CONCLUSIONS REGARDING THE POTEN- TIAL ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT. URGE A BALANCED SCIENTIFIC APPROACH. I. ti. unsnv 1'2 suxa?L J0 KumAyun In! much an'wnrl udmn am DUE TO CURRENT SCIENTIFIC UNCERTAINTY, EXXON IS NOT CONDUCTING SPECIFIC IMPACT STUDIES WITH RESPECT TO PARTICULAR COMPANY OPERATIONS OR GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS. EXXON HAS NOT MODIFIED ITS ENERGY OUTLOOK OR FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN FOSSIL FUEL DEMAND OR UTILIZATION DUE TO THE HOUSE EFFECT. RESIST THE OVERSTATEMENT AND SENSATIONALIZATION OF POTENTIAL GREENHOUSE EFFECT WHICH COULD LEAD TO NONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF NONFOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES. - I. unsnv semi jO mgmangun In! U?ntln-?x ?nae-nun