UPI/CVoter Poll Presidential Tracker 2016 Current projections based on UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll conducted online during last seven days among 18+ adults nationwide, including likely voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the United States, including the Census. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100 due to the effects of rounding. pg. 1 UPI/CVoter Tracking Poll Date 16-Aug-16 17-Aug-16 Change Lead Results of rollover samples of last 7 days ending on: Clinton Trump 50.84 44.28 49.69 45.47 -1.15 1.19 4.2 Survey Fieldwork Dates Others 4.88 4.85 -0.03 Sample Size & Likely Voters Starting on Ending on Sample Size LV 8/11/2016 8/17/2016 1397 1009 As Of Today Clinton Trump Others Change:1 Week 0.2 0.3 -0.5 Change:2 Week 0.0 1.7 -1.8 Change:3 Week 3.9 -3.5 -0.5 Change:4 Week 5.2 0.3 -5.5 UStracker2016 60.00 55.00 50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 Clinton pg. 2 Trump If the US Presidential Elections was held today; which candidate would you vote for? (Close Ended Options: Donald Trump / Hillary Clinton / Other Candidate / Will vote; but undecided right now / I will not vote) *LV Only* Results of rollover samples of last 7 days ending on: pg. 3 Date Clinton Trump Others 7/14/2016 7/15/2016 7/16/2016 7/17/2016 7/18/2016 7/19/2016 7/20/2016 7/21/2016 7/22/2016 7/23/2016 7/24/2016 7/25/2016 7/26/2016 7/27/2016 7/28/2016 7/29/2016 7/30/2016 7/31/2016 8/1/2016 8/2/2016 8/3/2016 8/4/2016 8/5/2016 8/6/2016 8/7/2016 8/8/2016 8/9/2016 8/10/2016 8/11/2016 8/12/2016 8/13/2016 8/14/2016 8/15/2016 8/16/2016 8/17/2016 43.46 44.24 44.43 45.22 44.66 44.69 44.53 44.02 43.82 44.06 44.43 44.83 45.03 45.76 46.26 47.28 47.43 48.96 48.38 49.42 49.65 50.02 49.79 50.40 49.12 48.52 48.06 49.45 49.84 49.52 49.01 50.45 50.67 50.84 49.69 42.05 39.69 38.72 39.41 41.24 42.98 45.13 47.07 48.23 48.90 49.18 49.11 48.97 48.94 48.55 47.80 47.60 46.11 46.29 45.54 43.76 43.92 43.66 43.14 44.30 45.05 45.86 45.15 45.07 45.14 45.51 44.65 44.19 44.28 45.47 14.49 16.08 16.85 15.38 14.11 12.33 10.35 8.91 7.96 7.05 6.39 6.07 6.01 5.31 5.20 4.93 4.98 4.94 5.34 5.05 6.60 6.06 6.56 6.47 6.59 6.44 6.08 5.39 5.10 5.34 5.48 4.88 5.14 4.88 4.85 Methodology & Tracker Details Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of online polls is measured using a credibility interval. The error due to sampling for projections based on the Likely Voter sample; could be plus or minus 3 percentage points at the national level and plus or minus 5 percentage points at state level. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Rather than conducting a regular survey with one single wave of approximately 1,400 respondents every week, we are interviewing about 200 respondents daily. We make a rollover master file every day from the samples collected in the last 7 days; this gives us a new sample of about 1,400 every day. Thus, rather than a routine weekly tracker, the UPI/CVoter Poll is a daily tracker, giving the public opinion trends on a daily basis. We will analyze the Presidential Tracker over the rest of the campaign until Election Day. The data collection started July 8 and will continue until Nov. 7. Technically speaking, we are conducting 17 weekly waves of 1,400 respondents each. But by splitting that sample into 200 interviews every day, and making one rollover file of the last 7 days every day, we would be able to do 100 waves of 1,400 samples each. In other words, this gives us an opportunity of analyze fresh data daily for the remainder of the campaign through Election Day. We did multiple rounds of pilots with different platforms, both online and offline, and eventually decided that we would use the online mode for data collection. In the #USAtracker2016 we employ multiple providers of panels to randomize and remove the contact bias of any one particular sample provider, if any. Just like in our 2012 presidential polls, our exclusive Psephometer algorithm will be updated every day. So we will have the national projection as well as the state level projections on a daily basis. This will be a unique tracker from that perspective. What issues/items are we covering in our Presidential Tracker 2016? 1. National vote projection 2. Projections for 50 states 3. Timeline for the “swing” states 4. Ten most important issues: Top of mind recall 5. Who can solve this particular issue: Trump or Clinton 6. Perceptions of winning: Who is “seen” as winning as of today 7. Country going in right or wrong direction 8. Which of these candidates you feel like you will NEVER vote for 9. Tracking the Bernie Sanders supporters 10. Tracking non-Trump Republicans voters pg. 4 Code of conduct & IPR Details All our tracking polls conducted for media are released in public domain and report archives are available on public platform. We are proud to follow the WAPOR/ESOMAR Code of Conduct and meet the AAPOR Level 1 standard of disclosure. All publication rights for worldwide UPI releases remain with UPI, and all survey instruments, design and data IPR remain with CVoter. Contact: Yashwant Deshmukh, Editor, CVoter International: yashwant@teamcvoter.com Charlene Pacenti, Chief Content Officer, UPI: cpacenti@upi.com pg. 5