CFSR3 Data Measure Overview DSHS Children’s Administration Data Management & Reporting Section Presentation to Children’s Administration Leadership Team May 5, 2016 CFSR: Overall Goals • Ensure conformity with title IV-B and IV-E child welfare requirements • Determine what is happening to children and families who have contact with the child welfare system • Support states to enhance their capacity to improve outcomes and systems for children and families CFSR Data Measure Overview 2 CFSR3: What Has NOT Changed • The process: 1. Data profile (3 years data trends and national standards) 2. Statewide assessment 3. Onsite review • Assessment based on the same 7 outcomes and 7 systemic factors using national standards and measures of expected performance • States found to be “not in compliance” will continue to have the opportunity to improve their programs before facing the possibility of financial penalties CFSR Data Measure Overview 3 CFSR3 Not Changed: 7 Outcomes Safety 1. Children are, first and foremost, protected from abuse and neglect. 2. Children are safely maintained in their homes whenever possible and appropriate. Permanency 3. Children have permanency and stability in their living arrangements. 4. The continuity of family relationships and connections is preserved for children. Child and Family Well-Being 5. Families have enhanced capacity to provide for their children's needs. 6. Children receive appropriate services to meet their educational needs. 7. Children receive adequate services to meet their physical and mental health needs. CFSR Data Measure Overview 4 CFSR3 Not Changed: 7 Systemic Factors 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Statewide Information System Service Array Case Review System Staff Training Quality Assurance System Agency Responsiveness to the Community Foster & Adoptive Parent Licensing, Recruitment, & Retention CFSR Data Measure Overview 5 CFSR3: What Has Changed • Statewide data indicators and national standards Focus of this presentation • The statewide assessment and integration with the Child and Family Services Plans (CFSP) and Annual Progress and Services Reports (APSR) • Onsite reviews – Stakeholder interviews – Case reviews States meeting specific criteria can conduct their own case reviews using the federal review instrument CFSR Data Measure Overview 6 CFSR Data – Relevance to CFSR Process States submit data to to two systems: National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) Children’s Bureau (ACYF) sends State Data Profile Includes state’s performance relative to national standards for 3 years prior to review period Using most recent year of data from State Data Profile, states develop Statewide Assessment to report on child and family outcomes and systemic factors for submission to Children’s Bureau Onsite review conducted based on results of Statewide Assessment (stakeholder interviews & case review) States meeting specific criteria can conduct their own case reviews using the federal review instrument States held responsible for meeting “substantial conformity” on safety, permanency, and well-being outcomes and systemic factors CFSR Data Measure Overview 7 CFSR Data Measure History Timefram e Conducte d Data Indicators General Approach CFSR Round 1 CFSR Round 2 CFSR Round 3 2001-2004 2007-2010 2015-2018 6 Items 2 Safety 4 Permanency 6 Items 2 Safety 4 Permanency Composites (with 15 different measures) Composites – Added many measures and were very difficult to monitor 7 Items 2 Safety 5 Permanency Exit Cohorts CFSR Data Measure Overview No Composites Fewer/simpler measures More Entry Cohorts 9 Risk Adjustment CFSR3 Data Indicators & Methods Measure Safety S1 Maltreatment in foster care Cohort Period Method In placement and care authority * during the 12-month period Count/rate per day of care Victims of substantiated report Percent during the 12-month period S2 Recurrence of maltreatment within 12 months Permanency P1 Permanency in 12 months for Children entering care during Percent children entering foster care the 12-month period P2 Permanency in 12 months for In care on the first day of the Percent children in foster care for 12 to year 23 months P3 Permanency in 12 months for In care on the first day of the Percent children in foster care for 24 year months or more P4 Re-entry to foster care in 12 Children entering care during Percent * Accounts for time at risk for the outcome (maltreatment in care or placement moves) using the10 total number of days eligible CFSR Data Measure Overview months the 12-month period children were in care Concepts Used in CFSR3 Data Measures • Observed Performance – Each state’s calculated performance before any risk adjustment is applied • National Standard – National standards for each indicator are set at the national observed performance for that particular indicator (which is often similar to the national average) • Multi-level Statistical Model – State performance will be measured using a multi-level statistical model – The model risk-adjusts for select child- and state-level characteristics • Risk Adjustment  Risk Standardized Performance (RSP) – The goal is to minimize variation in outcomes due to factors over which states have little control (e.g., the average age of children in foster care in the state) – Accounts for factors that differ across states and that can affect outcomes regardless of the quality of services the state provides CFSR Data Measure Overview 11 Concepts Used in CFSR3 Data Measures • RSP Relative to National Standard (NS) – Each state’s risk-adjusted performance will be compared to the national standard to determine substantial conformity • Federal Target – To determine Washington’s required performance level, we refer to the “federal target” (performance needed to avoid a PIP) rather than the national standard – we are adjusting our target, rather than trying to adjust our performance • Confidence Interval – Range of values so defined that there is a specified probability that the value of a parameter lies within it. • Companion Measures – Permanency in 12 months and re-entry performance are linked CFSR Data Measure Overview 12 Multi-Level Statistical Model • State performance assessed using a multilevel statistical model based on the nested nature of the data: children (level 1) living within a state (level 2) • Model accounts for variation: – – – Across states in terms of case mix: the age distribution of children served for all indicators and the state’s foster care entry rate for P1 and P4 Across states in terms of the number of children they serve Between states in terms of child outcomes CFSR Data Measure Overview 13 Risk Adjustment Variables  RSP AGE* ENTRY RATE** S1: Maltreatment in Foster Care Age at entry/on first day -- S2: Recurrence of Maltreatment Age at initial victimization -- P1: Permanency in 12 Months for Children Entering Foster Care Age at entry Entry rate/1,000 P2: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Foster Care 12-23 Months Age on first day -- P3: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Foster Care 24 Months+ Age on first day -- Age at exit Entry rate/1,000 Age at entry -- INDICATOR P4: Re-Entry to Foster Care in 12 Months P5: Placement Stability *Age defined as birth-3 months, 4-11 months, and each year from age 1 through 17 **Entry rate per 1,000 uses the Census year (July 1) closest to the 12-month Data Measure Overview 14 period the child entered foster care CFSR as the population denominator Measuring States’ Performance Example: Exits to Permanency in 12 Months (Entry Cohort) • Approximate 95% confidence interval estimates are calculated around each state’s RSP 55.0% State A 52.3% 50.0% 47.6% State C 45.0% 42.8% 40.0% 35.0% State B 43.1% 39.8% 38.5% 36.5% 34.3% 36.3% 30.0% 25.0% CFSR Data Measure Overview 15 Categorizing States’ Performance Example: Exits to Permanency in 12 Months (Entry Cohort) • Each state’s interval estimate is compared to the national observed performance. Performance is categorized as: 55.0% 50.0% State A Higher than national performance 47.6% State C 45.0% 40.0% State B National Standard: 40.5% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 39.8% 36.5% Lower than national performance PIP REQUIRED CFSR Data Measure Overview 16 No different from national performanc e Meeting the National Standard • States meeting national standards (those whose performance is no different or exceeds the standard) during the PIP monitoring period will be credited as having met their goals • States that fail to meet the national standard will be required to include that indicator in their PIP • Baseline for the PIP is the state’s observed (rather than risk-adjusted) performance on the indicator for the most recent year of data available before the beginning of PIP implementation • Performance goals and thresholds are based on the state’s observed performance in the three most recent years of data CFSR Data Measure Overview 17 Perfm'mame Area 4: Hie-entry in L2 Mm?ls ?fchildren enter care in the pericrd, discharged within 12 td reuni?catidn pr guardianship, what percent re?enter fasterca re within 12 manths? hi atidnal Eta 3 2 {3235? ITI D. - rn I Dhse rue Performance 5 .4: Mat. Std. iczsass] E?n OF- in wmagrUDE rm? PR: W?ul': Exclu 3Spurce: AFCAFES 20113 through 2014A [Apr 1, 2011 - Mar 31, 2014) CFSR Round 3 Statewide Data Indicators - April 20, 2015 mm mum ?Km? mm ?fthildren wha enter tare in the peridd, discharged within 12 td reunificatidn dr guardianship, what percent re-enter fasterta re within 11 hi atidnal Eta Perrnaunenw Area. 4: Hie-entry" in 1.2 I Dhsenred i. IAdjusted up Adj mm Mat- Std..I. uhnnL . . DDAMW 2% 4% 556 3% 113% 1 2% 14% 15% 13% 20% D56 Sdurce: 1:1113 thraugh 2014A [Apr 1, 1011 - Mar 31, 10143 EFSR Round 3 Statewide Data Indicators nil-um? child Hclrar-t plant - April 10, 1n1s ?fthildren wha enter tare in the peridd, discharged within 12 td reunificatidn dr guardianship, what percent re-enter fasterta re within 11 hi atidnal Eta Perrnaunenw Area. 4: Hie-entry" in L2 Mantis. I Uhsewed Mat- Std- [a IAdjusted up [JAdjusted down CDr?lfidE?EE Interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . CMPM 2% 4% 556 3% 113% 1 2% 14% 15% 13% 20% D56 nil-um? child Hclrar-t plant - April ED, 3315 Saurce: AFC-MES 20113 thruugh 2014A [Apr 1, 2011 - Mar 31, 2014] Round 3 Statewide Data Indicators State: Obs. REP Lu an Patnanenw Perfumame Nee 4: lie-entry 11 Mamie; chhildren who enter care in the 12?month period, c?scharged within 12 months to reuni?cation or guarc?anship, what percent re-enter foster care within 11 months? National Sta . I I I I M5: 4.3% 5.?mm?55% 'Me?ammude 10% I I 5112:1556?1456 Modlf . . INot met: Adjusted up nw?i?rRiE?E?IA: 10-3% 9-?96 10.13% 10.3% 3 - Nat. St exam?115% 1 Neil}; I Confidence Interval Elmo?1239a 15.936? 1412356 I MA: 13.4% 14.0% {$011456 14.9% MD: 11.396? 15.4% 155% mfg? I nae I PR:Excu I WV: Excluded I 05a 49a 55a 3% 10% 125$ 145$ 155a 13% 20% Dutoa-rne changed r'lsltadjustme noe 'Inte real: 1' ?Dose med p-e National Standard and outoa-m-e: MetJ'Ho d'rf. 2U11Euthrou5h 1,2!111 - Mar31,2?14 Flou nd 3 Statewide Ela'ta Indicator: -Workb1oh. April 15 mm chi-lid mum llama-Immune STATEWIDE DATA IN DICATO RS S1: Maltreatment in Foster Care Of all children in foster care during a 12-month period, what is the rate of victimization per day of foster care? • What’s changed? – Rate of maltreatment per child days in the care and custody of the state vs. percentage of children not maltreated in foster care – Includes all maltreatment types by any perpetrator (e.g. parent) vs. just maltreatment by foster parents/facility staff • Includes all days in foster care during the year (across episodes), age 0-17 • Includes time in trial return home • Excludes children in care for less than 8 days & incidents occurring before or within 7 days of the date of removal • Multiple incidents of substantiated maltreatment for the same child are included in the numerator CFSR Data Measure Overview 23 {if all children inca re during,r the 12-month period, what is the rateof victimization per day? CFSFE Safety Performance Area 1: Maltreatment in Fostercare ational Eta nda rd: 6:554] per day's 3.513] Nat. Std. [11 Nodif IMet IMet:Adj up INCI- dif:Adj up INot met INot met: Adj up l?I Confidence Interval .1 234. 53D. 13.5 ?25 ll?? 0.1.4. 553 13.53 325 53.5 5114. 5B 333 33d. 4555 555 57.1.. 3399 233 355 1(922 353 BED 359 DEE 331GB 5325 . DI i? 25.7.7.7. 7.7.7.333 1111333333 clHl-d wanna muan Rate a1.rs 11] National Standard and outcome=Not met. Source: CFSR Round 3 Statewide Data Indicators April 21], 21315 Uutcomecha nged by risk adjustmentfconfidence interval: bsemed perform a rice-=5 Maltreatment in Foster Care Days Children Are Abused er Neglected While in Dut-ef?Heme Care* 7? Federal Target 5 6.3 days - El 2 3 5 Number :31? days per days in care that children are 1Illictimized Federal target CFSR Data Measure Overview 25 S2: Recurrence of Maltreatment Of all children who were victims of a substantiated report of maltreatment during a 12-month reporting period, what percent were victims of another substantiated maltreatment allegation within 12 months of their initial report? • What’s changed? – Window is 12 months vs. 6 months – Excludes recurrence in the first 14 days – Excludes children age 18+ at initial report • Performance is similar to previous measure within 6 months in Washington. New measure excludes first 14 days (likely duplicate reports of the same incident), and results in a similar rate as adding 6 months to the measurement period CFSR Data Measure Overview 26 Of all children with a 5 ubsta ntiated allegatienduri n.5,r the 12?month peried, hat percent had a nether 5 ubsta ntiated allegatienwithin 12 months? Safety P'e rfennance Area 2: Recurrence of Maltreatment National Sta nda rd: i=9. 1% 91%] Nat- Std- [c Mudif Confidence Interval IMet IMet:Adj up INodif:Adj up met IMot met: Adj up 4d. 4.444 5555 5557: 33339 9999 000.? 2333 4.4.4.4 .5503 a 33 DHCIDZ RN DD 155$ 205$ 2556 cm crui-u Hanna Wimp-mild 10% 5% DEE Gutcemecha nged by risk adjustmentfcenfidence interval: 'Gbsenred perfermance-IZ=N atienal Standard and eutceme=hlet met. Seurce:CF5Fi Reund 3 Statewide Data lndicaters April 2D, EDIE Recurrence within 12 Months Children Whe Experienced Re-Abuse 3% 8.3% Feder et 56.0% - FFY 201?] FFY 2012 FFY 2013 2014 Percent :31? children 1with anc-ther feunded within 12 Menths :31? initial feunded Federal target CFSR Data Measure Overview 28 Recurrence within 12 Months Recurrence - Children Who Experienced Re-abuse Percent Founded within 12-month5 of Initial Founded 2010 or 2011 or 2012 or 2013 or 2014 R93 1 2 5 R93 629? State P1: Permanency in 12 Months for Children Entering Care Of all children who enter foster care in a 12month period, what percent discharged to permanency within 12 months of entering foster care? • What’s changed? – Expanded definition of permanence includes reunification, adoption, or guardianship vs. reunification only – Includes all children entering foster care during the year vs. just those who were removed for the first time – Excludes children in care for less than 8 days and children entering care at age 18+ – Entry cohort window is 12 months vs. 6 months CFSR Data Measure Overview 30 Trial Home Visit Adjustment • Children who have a discharge to reunification that was preceded by a trial home visit will have their length of stay adjusted to be at the time of the entry to the THV plus 30 days…and THV +30 will be considered the date they exited to permanency, even if the actual episode ends later. CFSR Data Measure Overview 31 Pe nnane no: Fe rfonnanee Area 1: Pennane new in 12 Months for Child ren Enten' ng Foster Care Ofall children when entered care in the peridd, what percent exited td perrna nendjI within 12 menths? Natidnal Standard: HES-11E 405%] Net. Std- Nodif I Met: Adj up I No difNot met: Adj up [1 Adj Confidence Interval I Met 1. . A: 60% SUE-E 40% SUE-E 20% 105i: [m WIHIH MINI-mild: ?Observed a nee-(N atidnal Eta nda rd a nd dutedme=Methd dif; Eduree:CFSFi Fidund 3 Statewide Data Indicatdrs April 21], EDIE Gutedmeeha nged by risk adjustmentfeenfidenee interval: 'Gbseru'ed a neeb=h atidna Sta nda rd and dutedme=hldt met. P1: Permanency in 12 Months for Children Entering Care Children Achieving Within 12 Mentha ef PIacen1ent* 45% - Federal Target 3 319FFYEDM Percent :31? children achieving permanencyr within 12 mentha efplacernent in eut?ef?heme care Federal target CFSR Data Measure Overview 33 P2: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Care for 12-23 Months Of all children in foster care on the first day of the 12-month period, who had been in foster care (in that episode) for 12-23 months, what percent discharged to permanency within 12 months of the first day? • What’s changed? – New measure with an intermediate time period (between 12 and 23 months) – Excludes children who were age 18+ on the first day of the year CFSR adjustment Data Measure Overview 34 – No trial home visit CFSIH Pennanenw Performance Area 2: Pennanenw in L7: Mm?ls, In Care 11-23 lulu-mils chhildren inca re an the ?rst day dfthe 12?month period, in care for 12?23 months, what percent exited ten permanency within 12 months? National Standard: 2:43.355 4asa] Nodif I Met IMet:Adj up I No dif: Adj up I Not met metAdj up [JAdj Confidence Interval 1 3223 i. 20% SIDE 413% 50% 50% NH: cm clHi-d Hellfire Frail-ct 113% 5aurce:CFSR Raund 3 Statewide Data Indicatars -Warkbaak, April 213, 21315 ?Observed perfarm ance-?hlatianal Sta nda rd and autcame=Metha dif. Clutcame cha nged by ris adj ustmentfcanfidence interval: P2: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Care for 12-23 Months CFSR Data Measure Overview 36 P3: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Care for 24+ Months Of all children in foster care on the first day of the 12-month period, who had been in foster care (in that episode) for 24 or more months, what percent discharged to permanency within 12 months of the first day? • What’s changed? – Nothing • Excludes children who were age 18+ on the first day of the year • No THV adjustment CFSR Data Measure Overview 37 Pennanemlr Area. 3: Pennanemlr in L2 Hand-5, In Care 24+ Mum-5 Gfthildren inta re an the 1"Irstda1iI dfthe 12?month period, in ca re far 24 months or more, what percent exited to permanency.I within 12 months? National Standard: hail??Baum 1D D. pm. .A hurt .222a t. 5'56 10% 15% 213% 25% 313% 35% 413% 4556 513% rum-nu mud warn-e mum-1mm: bsemed a nte-ICN atidnal Sta nda rd a nd dif; bsemed a nteb=Natidna Sta nda rd and duttdme=th met. Spurte: Fidund 3 Statewide Data April 2D, 11115 Guttdmema nged by risk interval: P3: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Care for 24+ Months Children Placed 3 24 Menths Achieving PermanencyF Within 12 Menths 45% 40% Federal Target: 36.FFYEDM Percent efchildren achieving permanencyr 1within 12 months for children in care 24manths Federal target CFSR Data Measure Overview 39 P4: Re-entry to Foster Care Of all children who enter foster care in a 12-month period and are discharged within 12 months to reunification or guardianship, what percent re-entered foster care within 12 months of their date of discharge? • What’s changed? – Entry cohort (denominator includes all children who enter care during the year and exit within 12 months) vs. all children who exit during the year – Includes exits to reunification and guardianship vs. reunification only – Only counts first re-entry if a child has more than one re-entry within 12 months of discharge – Excludes children in care for less than 8 days & children entering or exiting care at age 18+ CFSR Data Measure Overview 40 CF State: 45 th-J u1-lhBEBE BEBE BEBE REE BEBE HE 2 Er Cain: bahuiuinmhutu'u 'm'u hale-u: inf-.1 iminLn hair:- bin-1.: Lia: Laid-.1 lea-1i:- iu'rub Lain-i Ra? 3539! 35139135! BEE BEBE BEBE BEBE BEBE aEEra?1 tie?1 DHzl? 56?1 CNS 96?1 5t.? 1 1D 96?1 1 96?1 VT: 15 56?1 EE?lt'i??. tie?14.2% (30:13 Eel?14.9% 56? 15.5% MPi'vazi.5_ tie?15.9% _nm rm 3E EPI Em Eire CFSIB Pennanenw Perfalmanoe Area 4: lie-entry in 1.2 Mum-5 Crl?children who enter care in the 12?month period, discharged within 11 months to reuni?cation or guardianship, what percent re-enter foster ca re within 12 months? National Eta nda i i wet lMetzAdj up Modif lNodiszdj up I - I INot met INot met: Adj up UAolj Nat- Std- (c3395) r?I Confidence Interval 12% 14% 15% 13% 20% ?utcomecha nged by risk adjustmentfconfidence interval: 1. ?Goserved perform a ncee=h ational Sta nda rd and No dif. Sourcez?FSFi Round 3 Statewide Data Indicators April 21], 21115 rm ciui-u mum WIMW Re-entry into Out-of?Home Care Wiithin 12 Manths af Reuni?catian and Guardianship 3% 6% 4% 2% 0% FFYEUM Percent of children re?entering care within 12 months efreuni?eatian 8: guardianship Federal target CFSR Data Measure Overview 42 P5: Placement Stability Of all children who enter foster care in a 12month period, what is the rate of placement moves per day of foster care? • What’s changed? – Entry cohort vs. all children in care for less than 12 months – Controls for time in care by constructing a moves/placement day vs. the number of moves per child – Accurately accounts for actual number of moves vs. the prior “2 or more” indicator – Excludes children in care for less than 8 days & children entering or exiting care at age 18+ – The initial removal from home (and into foster care) is not CFSR Datamove Measure Overview 43 counted as a placement lIiill?all children wile enter earein the ll?mentn perietl, wnatis the rate ef placement memes per day? Natienal per 1,000 days Pennanencyr Mesa 5: Placement Stalin 4.12] Mat. Std. In: Modif 1 I I IMet IMet:Adj up .ND dif: Adj up I Not met Ihl-Dt met: Adj up Adj l?l Cdnfide nee Interval 2335235 13 53 5359950155 31 31. 3113139553 31. 41.131. Sula?dd 2223333 33 33 3333333333 34 44 4444444455 55 55555 51333 Excluded LJ Em: Em: Em: Em: Em: maan Rate pe LOGO days ??bserved a nee31=h atianal Eta nizla rd and unnamed-9E1:de dif. Flannel 3 Statewide Data Indicatars April El], EDIE- CI-uteameeha nged by risk adjustmentfeanfidenee interval: P5: Placement Stability Placement Metres fer Children in the First 12 Menths in Care* 6.00 5.00 4.30 . Federa eti: 3.93 3.00 - 2.00 1.00 0.00 Rate of placement memes per 1,000 days in eut-ef?heme care Federal target CFSR Data Measure Overview 45 P5: Placement Stability Stability - Placement Moves in First 12 Months in Care Rate of Placement Metres per 1,000 Days in Out-uf-Hume Care 10 - 9 6 5 4 Federal Target 5 3.98 3 CT 2010 CY 2011 CV 2012 CT 2013 CT 2014 CY 2015 Regl Reg2 Reg3 Real-l RegS Reg? - - State CFSR Data Measure Overview 46 Companion Measures • In order to meet the PIP goal for P1, Washington must: – Increase the percentage of children achieving permanency to 37.9% – Not allow the percentage of children re-entering care to exceed 4.9% (the threshold for Re-entry to care – P4) • Conversely, to meet the PIP goal for P4, if WA continues to meet the national standard of children re-entering care (estimated at < 7.0%), there is no threshold identified for permanency in 12 months. CFSR Data Measure Overview Entry Cohort: Permanen cy in 12 months Re-entries to Foster Care 47 Washington’s Performance Summary OBSERVED PERFORMANCE RSP** * for YR3 baseli ne Observed Performa nce to Avoid PIP Nation al Standa rd 10.99 < 6.80* < 8.50* 9.4% 9.9% < 7.8% No longer meeting < 9.1% 40.5% 36.5% 32.3% 32.9% 33.2% > 37.9% > 40.5% P2: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Foster 45.8% 43.2% 42.6% Care 12-23 Months 43.3% 39.4% > 45.3% > 43.6% P3: Permanency in 12 Months for Children in Foster 38.7% 34.4% 37.3% Care 24+ MonthsMeasures P1 & P4/Companion 38.3% 31.2% > 36.5% Met > 30.3% INDICATOR S1: Maltreatment in Foster Care S2: Recurrence of Maltreatment P1: Permanency in 12 Months for Children Entering Foster Care *P4:Per 100,000 to days in care Re-Entry Foster Care in 12 Months YR3 YR1 YR2 (baseli ne) Curre nt 4.73 5.86 7.83 6.81 6.3% 6.6% 7.8% ** Per 1,000 days in care ***Risk Standardized Performance < 7.0% < 8.3% 4.7%CFSR 4.7% 4.4%Overview 4.7% 5.9%48 Data Measure Met Sources Special thanks to the staff and resources at UC Berkeley, California Child Welfare Indicators Project. URL: http://cssr.berkeley.edu/ucb_childwelfare Sources: • • • • • • Executive Summary: Final Notice of Statewide Data Indicators and National Standards for Child and Family Services Reviews Federal Register Notices: Statewide Data Indicators and National Standards for Child and Family Services Reviews – May 2014 – October 2014 – April 2014 CFSR Technical Bulletins – #8A – #7 CFSR Round 3 Statewide Data Indicators (revised May 2015) Sustaining the Momentum: The Next Round of Reviews Children's Bureau Plan for CFSR Statewide Data Indicators and National CFSR Data Measure Overview 49 Standards ADDITIONAL RESOURCE SLIDES Risk Standardized Performance (RSP) • The RSP is the ratio of the number of “predicted” outcomes over the number of “expected” outcomes, multiplied by the national observed performance • These values are calculated from the results of the multi-level model which encompasses the case mix across all states • Each state’s RSP can be compared directly to the national observed performance to determine state performance vs. an “average” state CFSR Data Measure Overview 51 Generating the RSP Example: Exits to Permanency in 12 Months (Entry Cohort) 1. Estimate the number of predicted outcomes – The predicted number of outcomes the state would have (on average) based on the state’s performance with its observed case mix State A: 500 predicted exits to permanency State B: 9,000 predicted exits to permanency State C: 4,420 predicted exits to permanency 2. Estimate the number of expected outcomes – The number of outcomes that would be expected if children were served by the average state State A: 425 expected exits to permanency State B: 10,000 expected exits to permanency CFSR Data Measure Overview State C: 4,500 expected exits to permanency 52 Generating the RSP (cont.) Example: Exits to Permanency in 12 Months (Entry Cohort) 3. Divide the number of predicted outcomes by the number of expected outcomes State A: 500 / 425 = 1.176 State B: 9,000 / 10,000 = 0.900 State C: 4,420 / 4,500 = 0.982 State A: 1.176 * 40.5% = 47.6% State B: 0.900 * 40.5% = 36.5% State C: 0.982 * 40.5% = 39.8% Higher than expected permanency rate Lower than expected permanency rate Lower than expected permanency rate 4. Multiply this ratio by the national observed performance (40.5% for P1) CFSR Data Measure Overview 53 Calculating Rate Per Day of Foster Care: Maltreatment in Foster Care ort: Children in Care Between Oct 2012 – Sep 2013 Child A Days in care: 275 Instances of maltreatment: 0 Child B Days in care: 45 Instances of maltreatment: 1 Child C Days in care: 310 Instances of maltreatment: 2 Child D Days in care (episode 1): 95 Instances of maltreatment: 0 Days in care (episode 2): 188 Instances of maltreatment: 0 Denominator: total days in care 275 + 45 + 310 + 95 + 188 = 913 1 Numerator: instances of maltreatment 0+1+2+0+0=3 2 Calculate rate of maltreatment per day in car 3 / 913 = 0.003286 3 Multiply by 100,000 0.003286 * 100,000 = 328.6 4 328.6 victimizations per 100,000 days in foster care CFSR Data Measure Overview 54 Maltreatment in Foster Care: Example – Children in Care Oct 2012-Sep 2013 Entry date Exit date 18th birthday Age at entry/1st day of year Total days in care Substantiated reports Date of report Child A Child B Child C Child D (1) Child D (2) 12/17/12 1/15/13 11/24/12 5/9/12** 5/21/13 in care 2/19/13 In care 1/4/13 11/24/13 9/19/13* n/a n/a n/a n/a 17 3 8 12 13 275 45 310 95 188 0 1 2 0 1 n/a 1/18/13 1/30/13 6/15/13 n/a 5/24/13** * count ends at 18th birthday y count starts on the first day of the 12-month period stance of maltreatment is excluded because it was reported within 7 days of foster care placement CFSR Data Measure Overview 55 Example: Entry Cohorts vs. Exit Cohorts CHIL D ENTRY & EXIT DATES MONTHS IN CARE EXIT REASON EXIT COHORT ENTRY COHORT 1 9/11-4/12 7 Reunification  2 4/12-6/12 2 Reunification  3 4/11-9/12 17 Reunification  4 12/11-9/12 9 Guardianship 5 8/11-12/11 4 Reunification 6 3/12- 20 N/A – no exit  7 9/12-2/13 5 Reunification  8 12/11-5/13 17 Reunification  9 9/11-11/11 2 Reunification 10 4/12-11/13 7 Reunification CFSR Data Measure Overview      56 Measuring Timely Reunification: Entry Cohorts vs. Exit Cohorts 10/1/11 10/1/12 10/1/13 CFSR Data Measure Overview 57 CFSR2/C1.1: Exit Cohort 10/1/11 10/1/12 10/1/13 Children discharged to reunification during the year: 5 Children reunified within 12 months: 4 Performance (C1.1): 80% CFSR Data Measure Overview Median time to reunification (C1.2):58 4 months CFSR3/P1: Entry Cohort 10/1/11 10/1/12 10/1/13 Children entering care during the year: 6 Children achieving permanency within 12 months: 4 Performance (P1): 60% Median time to permanency: 8 months CFSR Data Measure Overview 59 Calculating Rate Per Day of Foster Care: Placement Stability rt: Children Entering Care Between Apr 2013 – Mar 20 Denominator: total days in care 342 + 196 + 35 + 167 + 154 = 894 1 Child A Days in care: 342 Placement moves: 2 Numerator: placement moves 2+0+1+1+0=4 2 Child B Days in care: 196 Placement moves: 0 Child C Days in care (episode 1): 35 Placement moves: 1 Days in care (episode 2): 167 Placement moves: 1 Child D Days in care: 154 Placement moves: 0 Calculate rate of moves per day in care 4 / 894 = 0.00447 3 Multiply by 1,000 0.00447 * 1,000 = 4.5 4 4.5 placement moves per 1,000 days in foster care CFSR Data Measure Overview 60 Placement Stability: Example – Children Entering Care Apr 2013-Mar 2014 Child A Child B Child C (1) Child C (2) Child D Entry date 4/23/13 6/22/13 5/4/13 10/15/13 8/30/13 Exit date in care 1/4/14 6/8/13 in care in care 18th birthday n/a n/a n/a n/a 2/1/14 Age at entry/1st day of year 17 3 8 12 13 Total days in care 342 196 35 167 154* Placement moves 2 0 1 1 1 5/1/13 9/30/13 n/a 5/12/13 12/26/13 2/27/14** Date of move ay count ends at 18th birthday Placement move excluded because it occurred after the 18th birthday CFSR Data Measure Overview 61 CFSR Data Measure Overview 62