Maine Workforce Outlook 2014 to 2024 Center for Workforce Research Maine Dept. of Labor www.maine.gov/labor/cwri The labor force is constantly in flux The supply of workers changes with growth in the population and changes in its composition. Changes in demand for products and services, and in technology and means of production and service delivery impact demand workers across industries and occupations, and for certain education and job skills. Three primary steps in a top down approach to developing forecast 1. Labor force – We look at population and labor force participation trends to develop a top line rate of job growth. 2. Industry employment – Some industries are gaining and others are losing jobs. Changes in technology, the competitive environment, product demand, and a range of other factors impact growth prospects for industries. 3. Occupational employment – Many occupations are primarily found in certain industries (carpenters in construction, doctors in healthcare, etc.) so occupational trends are partly driven by industry trends. Additionally, occupational staffing changes as technology and work practices evolve. Demographic Trends the Labor Force Outlook The median age in Maine increased even more sharply than the nation over the last four decades 45 United States Maine Median Age 40 35 30 25 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 The population is getting older throughout the entire advanced world. In the U.S., the median age increased nearly 10 years since 1970. Aging is most pronounced in the northeast, especially the three northern New England states. Maine is now the oldest state by median age at 44.5 years in 2015, nearly seven years above the U.S. figure. The population is aging so rapidly because the number of births declined precipitously 24,000 20,000 16,000 12,000 8,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Births and Deaths per Year Births Deaths Natural population change–the difference between births and deaths– has been slightly negative since 2011, a pattern that is expected to continue over the next decade. Fewer births caused an imbalance in our population structure, that now has a high share of people in their 50s and 60s and low share of young people relative to the U.S. Percent of Population by Age, 2014 2% 1% U.S. Maine 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 The large gap between the number of people who will retire and the number of young people who will enter the workforce will put significant downward pressure on the size labor force over the next two decades. Since 2010 net-migration has also been unusually low Change in Population by Component 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 -40,000 -80,000 Natural Change Net Migration Net in-migration–the difference between those who move into and out of the state– has only been enough to offset the natural decline from more deaths than births since 2010. An increase in inmigration of working-age people to 1970s levels will be needed if we are to sustain the size of the workforce in the years ahead. The total population has been nearly unchanged since 2008 and is expected to contract modestly through 2024 1,400,000 If net migration does not pick up significantly, the total population is likely to gradually decline. 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Population 1,300,000 The number of prime-age workers is expected to continue to decline as more baby boomers become seniors 75,000 80% 50,000 70% 60% 25,000 50% 0 40% -25,000 -50,000 Change 2014 Participation Rate 2024 Participation Rate 16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Age Group 30% 20% Labor Force Participation Rates Projected Population Change, 2014 to 2024 90% Labor force participation rates are expected to rise in all age groups, but the total participation rate will decline because more of the population will be retired. As a result of these trends, the labor force is expected to decline slightly between 2014 and 2024, though employment is expected to rise somewhat due to fewer unemployed Baby boomers reaching working-age drove rapid growth from the mid-1960s through 1980s. Their exit from the workforce over the next two decades is a serious constraint to workforce, GDP, personal income, and other measures of economic growth. 600,000 500,000 400,000 Civilian Labor Force Employed 300,000 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Civilian Labor Force and Employed 700,000 The reduction in unemployment that is expected to cause employment to rise (despite a modest decline in the labor force) between 2014 and 2024 had already occurred by the middle of 2016. Industry 10b Trends Outlook Employment has long been shifting from businesses that produce goods to those that provide services Goods-Producing Service-Providing 56% 44% 32% 68% 18% 1950 13% 82% 1975 87% 2000 2024, projected 100,000 75,000 50,000 Utilities Natural Resources/Mining Information Educational Services Transportation/Warehousing Wholesale Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activities Manufacturing Leisure/Hospitality Professional/Business Services Retail Trade 0 Government 25,000 Health Care/Social Assistance Jobs by Sector in 2014 Three-quarters of jobs are in healthcare, government, retail, professional services, hospitality, or manufacturing At a broad sector level, the structure of employment in Maine is similar to the nation. Healthcare and social assistance, with more than 100,000 jobs, is the largest sector. Federal, state, and local government, including public schools, the University and Community College systems, U.S. Postal Service, and Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, was second with 95,000 jobs. 8,000 4,000 0 Utilities Natural Resources/Mining Information Educational Services Transportation/Warehousing Wholesale Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activities Manufacturing Leisure/Hospitality Professional/Business Services Retail Trade -8,000 Government -4,000 Health Care/Social Assistance Projected Job Change by Sector 2014 to 2024 Job gains are expected in three sectors, with losses in two, and little change in others The advancing age structure of the population is a primary factor driving job gains in healthcare and losses in government, mostly in public education. The long-term downward trend in manufacturing jobs is expected to persist. 0 Utilities Natural Resources/Mining Information 2014 Educational Services Transportation/Warehousing 100,000 Wholesale Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activities Manufacturing Leisure/Hospitality Professional/Business Services Retail Trade Government Health Care/Social Assistance Jobs by Sector in 2014 and Projected 2024 Though job losses are expected in government and manufacturing, they will remain among the largest employing sectors 2024 75,000 50,000 25,000 Industries Projected to Gain or Lose the Largest Number of Jobs in Maine Between 2014 and 2024 Industries Expected to Gain Jobs Industries Expected to Lose Jobs Ambulatory health care services 3,728 Paper manufacturing -1,851 Administrative and support services 3,132 Transportation equipment manufacturing -881 Hospitals 2,310 Wood product manufacturing -685 Nursing and residential care facilities 1,942 Food manufacturing -595 Food services and drinking places 1,785 Computer and electronic product manufacturing -458 Professional, scientific and technical services 1,424 Merchant wholesalers, durable goods -440 Social assistance 873 Plastics and rubber products manufacturing -419 Educational services 530 Printing and related support activities -407 Chemical manufacturing 414 Fabricated metal product manufacturing -385 Motor vehicle and parts dealers 375 Publishing industries, except Internet -362 Accommodation 344 Leather and allied product manufacturing -297 Gasoline stations 220 Clothing and clothing accessories stores -276 Management of companies and enterprises 219 Textile mills -259 Securities, commodity contracts, investments 160 Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods -238 Amusements, gambling, and recreation 158 Forestry and logging -208 Private households 142 Credit intermediation and related activities -198 Construction of buildings 124 Telecommunications -185 Building material and garden supply stores 112 Furniture and related product manufacturing -183 Electronic markets and agents and brokers 102 Nonstore retailers -174 Support activities for transportation 88 Textile product mills -166 Membership associations and organizations 88 Utilities -151 Real estate 87 Broadcasting, except Internet -128 Performing arts and spectator sports 86 Apparel manufacturing -116 Health and personal care stores 82 Insurance carriers and related activities -103 Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks 77 Furniture and home furnishings stores -94 Occupational 10b Trends Outlook Occupational 10b Trends Outlook 1. Broad trends The occupational structure of employment has shifted away from blue-collar jobs 1950 2014 Blue collar Mgmt, pro/tech Office, sales, service As massive as the changes in employment have been across industries, the changes in the occupational structure of employment have been equally large. Jobs by Occupational Group in 2014 Today, most jobs are in service, professional, administrative support, sales, or management occupations 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 The occupational structure of employment shifted due to the reallocation of jobs across industries, as well as a reallocation of functions, as technology and work-practice improvements changed how we produce goods or deliver services. Skill Demands are Changing • High Skill Occupations – Functions require analytical ability, critical thinking, problem solving, reasoning, and creativity. Most require post-secondary education. • Middle Skill Occupations – Routine and repetitive tasks that tend to be procedural. Often require on the job or other forms of training. • Low Skill Occupations – Physical work that cannot be (or has not yet been) automated. Limited educational requirements. Skill Demands are Changing • High Skill Occupations – Functions require analytical ability, critical thinking, problem solving, reasoning, and creativity. Most require post-secondary education. • Middle Skill Occupations skill – Routine jobs and repetitive tasks Many middle being that tend to be procedural. Often require on the job or eliminated other forms of training. by automation • Low Skill Occupations – Physical work that cannot be (or has not yet been) automated. Limited educational requirements. Projected Job Change by Occupational Group, 2014 to 2024 Job gains are expected to be concentrated in three occupational groups with losses in two and little change in others 7,500 5,000 2,500 0 -2,500 -5,000 Job gains are primarily expected in professional and management occupations, which generally require post-secondary education and offer higher than average earnings, and in service occupations, which generally have limited education and skill requirements and offer lower than average pay. Job losses are primarily expected in production and administrative support occupations, which have long been the path to middle class earnings for people without a college degree. Jobs by Occupational Group in 2014 and Projected 2024 Though stark differences in growth are expected, the structure of employment will be quite similar in 2024 160,000 2014 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 2024 Changes in the structure of the labor market are very large over the course an individual’s worklife. Over a single decade the changes in jobs by occupation tend to be gradual. Reflecting rising professional, managerial, and service jobs, growth is expected to be concentrated at the upper and lower ends of the earnings spectrum with little job change in the middle. Projected Job Change Between 2014 & 2024 by Occupation by 2015 Average Hourly Wage 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 Projected net loss of jobs with average wages between $23.25 and $26.50 is primarily due to expected declines in teaching and postal occupations. The number of jobs in most occupations in this wage bracket are expected to rise. Projected net loss of jobs with average wages between $17.25 and $19.13 is primarily due to expected declines among bookkeeping & accounting clerks and shipping clerks. Jobs by Occupation in 2014 and Projected 2024 by 2015 Average Hourly Wage Though losses are expected in many middle earning occupations, they will continue to comprise a majority of jobs 75,000 2014 65,000 55,000 45,000 35,000 25,000 2024 A high share of jobs in the middle of the earnings spectrum are in administrative support, production, installation and repair, construction trades, and transportation occupations. 7 of 8 openings will be due to replacement demand Job openings by source Growth 2,000 Replacement 15,500 The number of job openings is very high in some occupations with little or no growth, especially in lowerpaying, high-turnover functions, such as retail clerks and hospitality occupations. Alternatively, the number of openings is relatively low in some jobs with high rates of growth, especially those with low levels of employment. Replacement openings are expected even in occupations losing jobs Service 740 Professional & Related 690 Office & Administrative Support 200 Sales & Related 80 Management, Business & Financial 180 4,010 3,050 1,960 2,090 1,440 Transportation & Material Moving 40 870 Production 20 810 Growth Construction & Extraction 30560 Installation, Maintenance & Repair 40630 Farming, Fishing & Forestry Replacement Retirements and turnover create openings in all occupational groups. There will still be substantial numbers of openings in production, transportation, and installation occupations, despite the continued decline in manufacturing jobs. Similarly, the workforce in retail and food services is younger and turnover rates are high, leading to large numbers of jobs openings in those kinds of occupations. Employment by Occupational Group in Maine in 2014 and Projected 2024 Average Employment Percent of Total Employment Management, Business and Financial Management Business and Financial Operations Average Annual Openings 2014 2024 2014 2024 Net Percent Growth Replacement Total 2015 Average Wage 661,444 666,763 100.0% 100.0% 5,319 0.8% 2,027 15,549 17,576 $20.80 64,988 66,075 9.8% 9.9% 1,087 2.7% 180 1,437 1,617 $38.32 41,509 41,799 6.3% 6.3% 290 0.7% 80 934 1,014 $43.36 Occupational Group Total Change in Employment 23,479 24,276 3.5% 3.6% 797 3.4% 100 503 603 $29.40 140,267 143,784 21.2% 21.6% 3,517 2.5% 686 3,045 3,731 $29.41 Computer and Mathematical 10,881 11,839 1.6% 1.8% 958 8.8% 105 159 264 $33.90 Architecture and Engineering 9,746 9,468 1.5% 1.4% -278 -2.9% 18 231 249 $34.76 Life, Physical, and Social Science 4,578 4,792 0.7% 0.7% 214 4.7% 23 134 157 $28.73 14,954 15,486 2.3% 2.3% 532 3.6% 59 323 382 $21.08 4,951 5,066 0.7% 0.8% 115 2.3% 13 83 96 $36.91 Education, Training, and Library 40,215 38,509 6.1% 5.8% -1,706 -4.2% 42 891 933 $22.87 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 11,656 11,209 1.8% 1.7% -447 -3.8% 12 286 298 $18.68 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 43,286 47,415 6.5% 7.1% 4,129 9.5% 414 938 1,352 $38.15 147,638 154,409 22.3% 23.2% 6,771 4.6% 742 4,007 4,749 $12.50 Healthcare Support 22,503 24,622 3.4% 3.7% 2,119 9.4% 214 485 699 $13.57 Protective Service 11,985 12,473 1.8% 1.9% 488 4.1% 52 300 352 $18.87 Food Preparation and Serving Related 56,101 57,835 8.5% 8.7% 1,734 3.1% 232 2,099 2,331 $10.90 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 26,557 27,341 4.0% 4.1% 784 3.0% 78 537 615 $13.28 Personal Care and Service 30,492 32,138 4.6% 4.8% 1,646 5.4% 166 586 752 $11.47 Sales and Related 68,565 68,699 10.4% 10.3% 134 0.2% 80 2,094 2,174 $15.46 Office and Administrative Support 95,344 93,376 14.4% 14.0% -1,968 -2.1% 199 1,960 2,159 $16.37 5,781 5,580 0.9% 0.8% -201 -3.5% 2 142 144 $16.53 Construction and Extraction 36,697 36,675 5.5% 5.5% -22 -0.1% 34 557 591 $19.46 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 27,825 27,690 4.2% 4.2% -135 -0.5% 44 626 670 $21.42 Production 36,177 32,543 5.5% 4.9% -3,634 -10.0% 19 811 830 $17.78 Transportation and Material Moving 38,162 37,932 5.8% 5.7% -230 -0.6% 38 868 906 $16.09 Professional and Related Community and Social Services Legal Service Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Average wages are for wage and salary workers and do not include the self-employed. The average by occupational group is as estimate calculated using 2015 wages and 2014 employment. Occupational 10b Trends Outlook 2. By educational requirement Jobs by Typical Education Requirement in 2014 In 2014 most jobs were in occupations that do not require more than high school education 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 In 2014, nearly 64% of jobs were in occupations that typically require a high school diploma or no formal education credential; 26% required an Associate’s degree or higher; 24% required a Bachelor’s degree or higher; 5% required a Master’s degree or higher. Projected Rate of Change in Jobs 2014 to 2024 The fastest rate of job growth is expected in occupations with the highest education requirements 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% The fastest rate of job growth is expected in human capitalintensive occupations that typically require a post-secondary award or degree; the fastest rate of job loss is expected in labor-intensive occupations that do not require any kind of postsecondary award or degree. Projected Annual Job Openings 2014 to 2024 88% of job openings will be for replacement needs, not growth; two-thirds of openings are expected in occupations that require a high school diploma or less 6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500 0 Growth is the source of just 12% of annual job openings. Most job openings will stem from the need to replace the large numbers of baby boomers who will be retiring. Jobs by Typical Education Requirement in 2014 and Projected 2024 In 2024 most jobs are expected to continue to be in occupations that do not require more than high school 250,000 2014 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2024 The faster growth of jobs in occupations that require a postsecondary award or degree will increase their share from 33% to 34% of jobs. Occupational Employment by Educational Requirement in Maine in 2014 and Projected 2024 Average Employment Percent of Total Employment Change in Employment Average Annual Openings Replacement Total 2015 Average Wage 2,027 15,549 17,576 $20.80 1.9% 570 5,422 5,992 $11.84 -2,792 -1.2% 468 4,986 5,454 $18.72 2.5% -1,409 -7.8% 15 294 309 $17.26 7.5% 7.7% 1,679 3.4% 202 1,047 1,249 $16.88 14,701 2.2% 2.2% 224 1.6% 70 292 362 $25.11 126,832 129,123 19.2% 19.4% 2,291 1.8% 494 2,833 3,327 $32.37 Master's degree 12,154 12,925 1.8% 1.9% 771 6.3% 93 268 361 $33.43 Doctoral or professional degree 18,133 19,155 2.7% 2.9% 1,022 5.6% 100 386 486 $60.81 Educational Requirement 2014 2024 2014 2024 Net Percent Growth Total 661,444 666,763 100.0% 100.0% 5,319 0.8% No formal educational credential 182,269 185,802 27.6% 27.9% 3,533 High school diploma or equivalent 240,177 237,385 36.3% 35.6% Some college, no degree 18,011 16,602 2.7% Postsecondary non-degree award 49,391 51,070 Associate's degree 14,477 Bachelor's degree Occupational 10b Trends Outlook 3. STEM jobs STEM occupations • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics designates 184 occupations as STEM • The O*Net Consortium designates 167 occupations as STEM • We use a combined list, totaling 197 occupations • STEM occupations are not a homogeneous group; education and skill requirements, wage levels, and job outlook differ greatly Jobs in STEM occupations are expected to increase by about 5,400 to 115,900 in 2024 120,000 Of 197 STEM occupations, jobs in 120 are expected increase at a faster rate than the average, but jobs in 77 occupations are projected to increase at a rate below the average or to lose jobs. Jobs 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 2014 2024 In contrast, the number of jobs in non-STEM occupations is not expected to change much Projected Job Change, 2014 to 2024 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 STEM Occupations -2,000 Non-STEM Occupations And the share of jobs in STEM occupations is expected to rise slightly, from 16.7% to 17.4% of all jobs 600,000 STEM Occupations Non-STEM Occupations 500,000 Jobs 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 2014 2024 17% of job openings are expected in STEM occupations STEM Non-STEM In STEM occupations, 22% of openings are expected from growth between 2014 and 2024; in non-STEM occupations, just 9% of openings are expected to be due to growth. Jobs by Occupational Group in 2014 STEM jobs are found in 15 of 22 broad occupational groups; the largest share are healthcare practitioners & technicians 100,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 0 STEM Jobs Non-STEM Jobs STEM Jobs by Occupational Group in 2014 0 Life/Physical/Social Science Legal Farming, Fishing & Forestry Architecture & Engineering Computer & Mathematical Arts/Design/Entertainment/Media Community & Social Service Protective Services Healthcare Support Business & Financial Operations Building/Grounds Maintenance Installation, Maintenance & Repair… Personal Care & Service Production Construction & Extraction Transportation/Material Moving Education, Training & Library Management Healthcare Practitioners/Technicians Food Preperation/Serving Sales Related Office/Admin Support 39% of STEM jobs are in health practitioner/technician, 12% in management, 10% in computer/mathematics, 9% in business/finance, and 9% in architecture/engineering occupations 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 STEM occupations are not a homogeneous group; education and skill requirements, wage levels, and job outlook differ greatly. Jobs Required by Education in 2014 There are a wide range of education requirements among STEM occupations, though 75% require an associate’s degree or higher 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 STEM jobs Non-STEM Jobs Jobs by Required by Education in 2014 About half of jobs in STEM occupations require a Bachelor’s degree, 15% require an advanced degree, and nearly 1/3 do not require a degree 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 The average hourly wage of jobs in STEM occupations is 84% higher than for non-STEM jobs The average is skewed somewhat by high wages of Physicians and other health practitioners, which comprise the 10 highest paying STEM occupations. Average wages for 28 STEM occupations are below the average for all occupations. Average Hourly Wage in 2015 $32 $24 $16 $8 $0 STEM Jobs Non-STEM Jobs The highest average wages are in healthcare occupations Average Hourly Wage in 2015 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Healthcare Practitioner/Technition All Other STEM Jobs Average Hourly Wage in 2015 Within occupational groups, average wages are generally similar for STEM and non-STEM jobs $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 STEM Jobs Non-STEM Jobs Average Hourly Wage in 2015 STEM jobs offer higher average wages no matter the education requirement for the occupation, with larger differentials at higher levels of required education $75 STEM Jobs $60 $45 $30 $15 $0 Non-STEM Jobs More on the job outlook from 2014 to 2024 • Detail on the demographic outlook is at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlookDemographic.html • Detail on the job outlook for industries and occupations is at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/outlook.html • Detail on the STEM job outlook is at www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/data/projections/2024/STEM.xlsx Questions or comments? Contact Glenn Mills – glenn.mills@maine.gov or 207-621-5192 Ruth Pease – ruth.e.pease@maine.gov or 207-621-5189