Poll Presidential Tracker 2016 Current projections based on daily tracking poll conducted online during last seven days among 18+ adults nationwide, including likely voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the United States, including the Census. Sometimes the table figures the effects of rounding. UPI Ewen Tracking Poll #PrezTracker2016 Results of rollover samples of last 7 days ending on: Date Clinton Trump Others 09/11/2016 5 45.78 5 48.73 5 5.49 09/12/2016 45.72 48.90 5.38 ?Change -0.06 0.17 -0.11 ?Lead (D-R) -3.18 Survey Fieldwork Dates Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters 09/06/2016 5 09/12/2016 5 1792 5 1232 As Of Today Clinton Trump Others Change:1 Week 5 -2.38 5 2.81 5 ?0.80 Change:2 Week -2.15 1.29 0.86 Change:3 Week -2.63 1.42 1.21 Change:4 Week i -4.95 i 4.71 i 0.24 Change25 Week i -2.80 i 3.85 i -1.06 Change:6 Week -2.66 2.62 0.04 USTracke ?00, q] 0? mo? wo? mo? mo? mo? q9? wo? q9? mo? mo? wo? mo? wo? mo? mo? mo? wo? wo? q9? wo? mo? 19? mo? q9? mo? q?0? mo? q?o\oc-0- Clinton Trump Others If the U.S. presidential election was held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Close Ended Options: Donald Trump I Hillary Clinton I Other Candidate I Will vote, but undecided right now] I will not vote in coming elections) *Excluding Undecided/LV Only* #September2016 Nation Clinton Others Margin (D-R) Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters USA 5 45.72 48.90 i 5.38 -3.18 09/06/2016 09/12/2016 5 1792 1232 USA 45.78 48.73 5.49 -2.95 09/05/2016 09/11/2016 1815 1260 USA 45.31 49.06 5.63 -3.75 09/04/2016 09/10/2016 1799 1244 USA 45.89 48.61 5.50 -2.72 09/03/2016 09/09/2016 1838 1260 USA 46.06 48.23 5.71 -2.17 09/02/2016 09/08/2016 1837 1256 USA 46.65 47.73 5.62 -1.08 09/01/2016 09/07/2016 1776 1226 USA 46.84 47.19 5.97 -0.35 08/31/2016 09/06/2016 1825 1262 USA 48.10 46.09 5.81 2.01 08/30/2016 09/05/2016 1783 1220 USA 48.55 46.50 4.95 2.05 08/29/2016 09/04/2016 1798 1237 USA 49.37 45.52 5.11 3.85 08/28/2016 09/03/2016 1791 1242 USA 49.25 45.13 5.62 4.12 08/27/2016 09/02/2016 1664 1142 USA 48.98 45.45 5.57 3.53 08/26/2016 09/01/2016 1700 1172 #August2016 Likely Voters SamMeShe Ending on Starting on .m 9 a 1173 1705 08/31/2016 08/25/2016 231 1162 1699 283 1173 1695 271 1145 1652 309 1157 1682 301 1211 1743 -014 1183 1726 062 1196 1737 -079 1187 1720 -070 1214 1752 087 1259 1795 074 1191 1689 072 1096 1554 360 993 1378 324 1009 1397 1L22 1069 1473 356 1037 1449 648 975 1391 580 974 1403 350 1045 1511 1L38 1107 1601 4u77 920 1416 4u30 1002 1452 220 993 1471 347 960 1407 4n82 1036 1475 727 1038 1455 643 1060 1468 640 1009 1406 588 934 1286 387 1006 1328 240 #July2016 Nation Clinton Others Margin (D-R) Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters USA 5 48.96 5 46.11 5 4.94 5 2.85 07/25/2016 07/31/2016 5 1308 5 989 USA 47.42 47.60 i 4.97 i -0.18 07/24/2016 07/30/2016 i 1437 i 1078 USA 47.28 47.80 i 4.93 i -0.52 07/23/2016 07/29/2016 i 1403 i 1048 USA 46.26 48.55 i 5.20 i -2.29 07/22/2016 07/28/2016 i 1272 i 949 USA 45.76 48.94 i 5.30 i -3.18 07/21/2016 07/27/2016 i 1332 i 992 USA 45.03 48.97 i 6.00 i -3.94 07/20/2016 07/26/2016 i 1475 i 1089 USA 44.83 49.11 i 6.05 i -4.28 07/19/2016 07/25/2016 i 1400 i 1023 USA 44.43 49.18 i 6.38 i -4.75 07/18/2016 07/24/2016 i 1274 i 932 USA 44.05 48.90 i 7.04 i -4.85 07/17/2016 07/23/2016 i 1021 i 733 USA 43.81 48.23 i 7.96 i -4.42 07/16/2016 07/22/2016 i 978 i 701 USA 44.02 47.07 i 8.90 i -3.05 07/15/2016 07/21/2016 i 1157 i 843 USA 44.52 45.13 10.35 i -0.61 07/14/2016 07/20/2016 i 1187 i 895 USA 44.69 42.98 12.33 i 1.71 07/13/2016 07/19/2016 i 1167 i 905 USA 44.66 41.23 14.11 i 3.43 07/12/2016 07/18/2016 i 1281 i 1012 USA 45.22 39.41 15.37 i 5.81 07/11/2016 07/17/2016 i 1490 i 1188 USA 44.43 38.72 16.84 i 5.71 07/10/2016 07/16/2016 i 1553 i 1264 USA 44.24 39.69 16.09 i 4.55 07/09/2016 07/15/2016 i 1914 i 1581 USA 43.46 42.05 14.50 i 1.41 07/08/2016 07/14/2016 i 2000 i 1652 Methodology Tracker Details Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of online polls is measured using a credibility interval. The error due to sampling for projections based on the Likely Voter sample; could be plus or minus 3 percentage points at the national level and plus or minus 5 percentage points at state level. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Rather than conducting a regular survey with one single wave of approximately 1,400 respondents every week, we are interviewing about 200 respondents daily. We make a rollover master file every day from the samples collected in the last 7 days; this gives us a new sample of about 1,400 every day. Thus, rather than a routine weekly tracker, the Poll is a daily tracker, giving the public opinion trends on a daily basis. We will analyze the Presidential Tracker over the rest of the campaign until Election Day. The data collection started July 8 and will continue until Nov. 7. Technically speaking, we are conducting 17 weekly waves of 1,400 respondents each. But by splitting that sample into 200 interviews every day, and making one rollover file of the last 7 days every day, we would be able to do 100 waves of 1,400 samples each. In other words, this gives us an opportunity of analyze fresh data daily for the remainder of the campaign through Election Day. We did multiple rounds of pilots with different platforms, both online and offline, and eventually decided that we would use the online mode for data collection. In the #USAtracker2016 we employ multiple providers of panels to randomize and remove the contact bias of any one particular sample provider, if any. Just like in our 2012 presidential polls, our exclusive Psephometer algorithm will be updated every day. So we will have the national projection as well as the state level projections on a daily basis. This will be a unique tracker from that perspective. What issues/items are we covering in our Presidential Tracker 2016? . National vote projection . Projections for 50 states . Timeline for the ?swing? states . Ten most important issues: Top of mind recall . Who can solve this particular issue: Trump or Clinton . Perceptions of winning: Who is ?seen? as winning as of today . Country going in right or wrong direction . Which of these candidates you feel like you will NEVER vote for . Tracking the Bernie Sanders supporters . Tracking non-Trump Republicans voters 0 Code of conduct IPR Details All our tracking polls conducted for media are released in public domain and report archives are available on public platform. We are proud to follow the Code of Conduct and meet the AAPOR Level 1 standard of disclosure. All publication rights for worldwide UPI releases remain with UPI, and all survey instruments, design and data IPR remain with CVoter. Contact: Yashwant Deshmukh, Editor, CVoter International: yashwant@teamcvoter.com Charlene Pacenti, Chief Content Officer, UPI: cpacenti@upi.com UPI