September 2016 NextGen Climate/Project New America Battleground Millennial Survey – September Update 1 About this Survey • Interviews were conducted online from August 24th to August 30th, 2016 among a base sample of 1,652 millennial adults, ages 18 to 34, in the following 11 states that will be critical for the presidential election: Arizona Nevada Pennsylvania Colorado New Hampshire Virginia Florida North Carolina Wisconsin Iowa Ohio • This is a tracking poll that follows a benchmark survey, fielded from June 29th to July 11th utilizing the same methodology, that was the first major survey this cycle conducted exclusively among millennials in battleground states. • 902 of the survey’s respondents are considered likely voters. • Beyond the presidential election, these battleground states are also likely to determine which party controls the U.S. Senate. Senate elections will be taking place this year in 10 of the 11 states surveyed. 2 The Race for President b) GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP 3 I LEAD THE Millennials show some further consolidation behind Clinton, but still plenty of room for improvement Vote for President Overall (4-Way) Clinton Undecided Wouldn’t vote for President Stein Johnson Trump August 38 July 35 16 9 6 19 11 11 6 10 MARGIN 20 CLINTON +18 19 CLINTON +16 Vote for President Overall (2-Way) Clinton August 44 July 40 Undecided Wouldn’t vote for President 10 13 Trump MARGIN 23 23 CLINTON +21 25 23 CLINTON +17 4 Larger gains for Clinton among likely voting millennials Vote for President Among Likely Voters* (4-Way) Clinton Undecided Wouldn’t vote for President Stein Johnson Trump MARGIN August 48 23 CLINTON +25 July 43 24 CLINTON +19 6 2 7 8 3 7 13 15 *Already registered to vote and self-report as “definitely” or “probably” turning out in November Vote for President Among Likely Voters* (2-Way) Clinton August 56 July 51 Undecided Wouldn’t vote for President 8 8 10 10 Trump MARGIN 28 CLINTON +28 30 CLINTON +21 5 Sanders supporters are becoming more likely to vote for Clinton as millennials see greater differences between Clinton and Trump Vote for President (AMONG MILLENNIALS WHO VOTE FOR SANDERS ON HYPOTHETICAL GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT) Clinton August 67 July 58 Undecided Wouldn’t vote Stein Johnson Trump 8 6 8 14 7 8 4 CLINTON +63 8 8 4 CLINTON +54 16% of millennials are “Sanders Holdouts” – they don’t vote for Clinton in a 4-way race, but do vote for Sanders in a hypothetical scenario where Sanders is the Democratic nominee – down 5 points from July when 21% of millennials fit this definition. On the issues most important to you, there is no real difference between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Agree Disagree SANDERS VOTERS % agree August 36 64 31 July 41 59 41 6 More millennials see a difference between Clinton, Trump on issues, with most gains going to Clinton. But many still don’t see a difference For each issue, please indicate which of the candidates below best represents your views on it. (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Change from July Ensuring women have access to health care and are able to make their own reproductive health care decisions 71 +9 13 16 -8 Clinton Trump Protecting Obamacare and expanding access to affordable health care to more low-income Americans* 63 15 22 Supporting equal pay for equal work 60 +4 18 22 -6 Protecting our families’ health with clean air and water 57 +6 16 28 -6 Moving the country from fossil fuels to clean energy to protect our air, water, and climate* 56 14 30 Making debt-free college available to everyone* 55 17 28 Raising the minimum wage* 55 22 23 Allowing people with student loans to refinance them at current interest rates* 54 17 29 Making the wealthy pay their fair share* 51 22 27 Implementing common sense gun safety rules 47 28 25 *Question was not asked in July survey. +0 No difference -2 7 How Millennials View Donald Trump b) GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP 8 I LEAD THE Clinton has made significant gains since July Popularity (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) NET Fav - Unfav Favorable Unfamiliar Unfavorable SEPT JULY 11 +62 N/A* 32 +35 +20 54 -10 -28 Michael Phelps 73 Barack Obama 67 Hillary Clinton 44 Ryan Lochte 10 40 50 -40 N/A* Lord Voldemort 14 32 54 -40 -38 Donald Trump 23 1 75 -52 -48 Vladimir Putin 10 26 64 -54 N/A* 15 1 2 *Question was not asked in July survey. 9 Time has failed to soften Trump’s image as millennials still see him as racist and unfit for office Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) JULY Agree Disagree % agree Donald Trump is racist 73 27 72 I would be scared if Donald Trump had control of our country’s nuclear arsenal 74 26 N/A* I would be ashamed of my country if Donald Trump were to win this election 71 29 71 Donald Trump is unfit to protect our country from major threats 70 30 69 Vladimir Putin and the Russian government want Donald Trump to win the election 65 35 N/A* Donald Trump respects women 25 75 26 *Question was not asked in July survey. 10 Millennials largely reject Trump’s worldview and candidates who support him. Also believe candidates should release tax returns America is made stronger by its diversity of people and views. Agree Disagree 87 13 Likely Voters 89 11 Total I would be reluctant to vote for a candidate for U.S. Senate or Congress who supports Donald Trump. Agree Disagree Total 59 41 Likely Voters 65 35 How important is it to you that candidates release their tax returns so voters can see whether the candidate would profit from their own policy proposals? Important Total 72 Likely Voters 74 Not important 28 26 11 Millennials find many Trump actions deeply offensive, led by mocking of a reporter, offensive statements towards Mexicans and the Khans Below are statements and actions Donald Trump has made and taken. Please indicate how offensive you find each, if at all. (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) Very offensive Somewhat offensive 17 MILLENNIALS OVERALL % very offensive Mocking a reporter’s disability 72 Calling Mexican immigrants rapists and killers 67 Criticizing the parents of a Muslim American soldier who died at war 65 Saying women should be punished for having an abortion 61 20 59 Falsely claiming he watched American Muslims cheer on 9/11 on the news 59 22 57 Tweeting “Appreciate the congrats for being right on radical Islamic terrorism” after a shooting 54 Saying Barack Obama founded ISIS 54 Saying a U.S.-born judge can’t be impartial against Trump because the judge is “Mexican” 53 Calling for a shutdown of Muslims entering the United States 52 19 20 24 21 27 19 73 67 64 52 51 52 50 12 How V i ennia s View Environment and Climate Issues b) GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP 13 LEAD THE Energy and climate issues are among top stances that would make millennials more likely to vote for a candidate Please indicate how a candidate taking each stance would impact your likelihood of voting for that candidate. (AMONG MILLENNIAL LIKELY VOTERS) More likely to vote for candidate No difference Less likely MILLENIALS SANDERS OVERALL HOLDOUTS % more likely Wants to transition the U.S. from dirty fossil fuels to clean energy like wind and solar to protect our air, water, and climate 83 14 3 78 85 Wants to make the wealthy and corporations pay their fair share of taxes 83 11 6 77 90 Wants to establish the U.S. as the clean energy superpower of the world 80 16 4 75 83 Supports universal background checks on gun sales 77 17 6 72 84 Supports limiting carbon pollution from power plants that contributes to climate change 76 19 5 73 80 Wants to ensure that women have the right to make their own reproductive health care decisions 75 15 10 71 79 Wants to make debt-free college available to everyone 74 14 71 84 Wants to raise the federal minimum wage 68 17 65 74 12 15 14 Conclusions b) GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP . I LEAD THE Conclusions • Millennial voters continue to despise Trump. Donald Trump has done nothing during or after the convention to change millennials’ perceptions that he is racist and unfit to serve. Large majorities of millennials find his actions deeply offensive and few prefer his policy positions. • Clinton is making inroads, including among Sanders supporters, as millennials see more differences on issues between she and Trump. But there is still much to be done. Clinton’s vote share among millennials has increased – particularly with likely voters – as she has started to consolidate Sanders supporters. More millennials see a difference between Clinton and Trump on issues, but there remains room for growth. • Energy and climate issues continue to be among the most salient to millennials. Candidates’ stances on climate and energy are critically important for millennials in deciding whom to vote for. There are fewer Sanders Holdouts as awareness of the differences between Clinton and Trump has grown, suggesting room for further growth in Clinton support as remaining Sanders Holdouts become aware of those differences. 16 GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP a LEAD THE