Poll Presidential Tracker 2016 Current projections based on daily tracking poll conducted online during last seven days among 18+ adults nationwide, including likely voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the United States, including the Census. Sometimes the table figures the effects of rounding. UPI #PrezTracker2016 Results of rollover samples of last 7 days ending on: Clinton Others 0971772016 47.39 5.05 09/18/2016 47.95 5.25 ?Change 0.55 -0.78 0.22 ?Lead (D-R) 1.18 5 Survey Fieldwork Dates Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters 0971272016 0911572015 1775 1203 As Of Today Clinton Trump Others Change:1 Week 2.17 -1 .95 -0.49 Change:2 Week -0.50 0.27 0.32 Change:3 Week -0.05 -0.59 0.53 Change:4 Week Change:5 week Change:6 Week - -1.17 - 2.47 I -1.32 USTrackerZOl '19 ?19 '19 ?19 ?19\ '19\ ?19? 1,9 0,9 1,9 '19 039 ?19(30(tax (Lgx 4- Clinton Trump Others Nation USA Clinton 48.98 Trump 45.45 Others 5.57 #September2016 Margin (D-R) 3.53 Sta rting on 09/12/2016 09/11/2016 09/10/2016 09/09/2016 09/08/2016 09/07/2016 09/06/2016 09/05/2016 09/04/2016 09/03/2016 09/02/2016 09/01/2016 08/31/2016 08/30/2016 08/29/2016 08/28/2016 08/27/2016 08/26/201 6 nding on 09/18/2016 09/1?/2016 09/16/2016 09/15/2016 09/14/2016 09/13/2016 09/12/2016 09/11/2016 09/10/2016 09/09/2016 09/08/2016 09/07/2016 09/06/2016 09/05/2016 09/04/2016 09/03/2016 09/02/2016 09/01/2016 Sample Size 1 700 Likely Voters 1172 #August2016 Nation Clinton Trump Othe rs USA USA Margin (D-R) StarNng on Ending on 2.31 08/25/2016 08/31/2016 , 1173 Sample Size Likely Vote rs 2.83 , 08/24/2016 , 08/30/2016 , 1162 2.71 , 08/23/2016 , 08/29/2016 , 1173 3.09 , 08/22/2016 , 08/28/2016 , 1145 3.01 , 08/21/2016 , 08/27/2016 , 1157 -0.14 , 08/20/2016 , 08/26/2016 , 1211 0.62 , 08/19/2016 , 08/25/2016 , 1183 -0.79 , 08/18/2016 08/24/2016 08/17/2016 08/23/2016 , 1187 -0.70 1196 0.87 , 08/16/2016 , 08/22/2016 , 1214 0.74 , 08/15/2016 , 08/21/2016 , 1259 1191 1554 USA 3.24 , 08/12/2016 4.22 , 08/11/2016 6.56 , 08/10/2016 6.48 USA USA 48.38 , 46.28 , 5.34 , 993 , 08/17/2016 , 1009 , 08/16/2016 1069 08/15/2016 , 1037 5.80 , 08/08/2016 , 08/14/2016 , 975 3.50 , 08/07/2016 , 08/13/2016 , 974 4.38 , 08/06/2016 , 08/12/2016 , 4.77 , 08/05/2016 , 08/11/2016 , 1107 4.30 , 08/04/2016 , 08/10/2016 , 920 08/03/2016 1511 08/09/2016 1002 993 3.47 , 08/02/2016 , 08/08/2016 4.82 , 08/01/2016 , 08/07/2016 , 7.27 , 07/31/2016 , 08/06/2016 , 1475 6.13 , 07/30/2016 , 08/05/2016 , 1455 6.10 , 07/29/2016 , 08/04/2016 , 1060 08/03/2016 , 1009 5.88 USA , 08/09/2016 2.20 USA 08/18/2016 07/28/2016 960 3.87 , 07/27/2016 , 08/02/2016 , 934 2.10 , 07/26/2016 , 08/01/2016 , 1006 #JuIy2016 Nation Clinton Trump Othe rs Margin (D-R) StarNng on Ending on 2.85 07/25/2016 07/31/2016 , 989 USA Likely Vote rs -0.18 , 07/24/2016 , 07/30/2016 , 1078 -0.52 , 07/23/2016 , 07/29/2016 , 1048 -2.29 , 07/22/2016 , 07/28/2016 , 949 -3.18 , 07/21/2016 , 07/27/2016 , 992 -3.94 , 07/20/2016 , 07/26/2016 , -4.28 , 07/19/2016 , 07/25/2016 , -4.75 , 07/18/2016 07/24/2016 07/17/2016 07/23/2016 , 733 -4.85 USA Sample Size 1475 1023 932 -442 , 07/16/2016 , 07/22/2016 , 701 -3.05 , 07/15/2016 , 07/21/2016 , 843 -0.61 , 07/14/2016 , 07/20/2016 , 895 1.71 , 07/13/2016 , 07/19/2016 , 905 3.43 , 07/12/2016 07/18/2016 , 5.81 , 07/11/2016 , 07/17/2016 , 5.71 , 07/10/2016 , 07/16/2016 455 1.41 07/09/2016 , 07/08/2016 , 1281 1188 1264 07/15/2016 , 1581 07/14/2016 , 1652 Methodology & Tracker Details Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of online polls is measured using a credibility interval. The error due to sampling for projections based on the Likely Voter sample; could be plus or minus 3 percentage points at the national level and plus or minus 5 percentage points at state level. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Rather than conducting a regular survey with one single wave of approximately 1,400 respondents every week, we are interviewing about 200 respondents daily. We make a rollover master file every day from the samples collected in the last 7 days; this gives us a new sample of about 1,400 every day. Thus, rather than a routine weekly tracker, the UPI/CVoter Poll is a daily tracker, giving the public opinion trends on a daily basis. We will analyze the Presidential Tracker over the rest of the campaign until Election Day. The data collection started July 8 and will continue until Nov. 7. Technically speaking, we are conducting 17 weekly waves of 1,400 respondents each. But by splitting that sample into 200 interviews every day, and making one rollover file of the last 7 days every day, we would be able to do 100 waves of 1,400 samples each. In other words, this gives us an opportunity of analyze fresh data daily for the remainder of the campaign through Election Day. We did multiple rounds of pilots with different platforms, both online and offline, and eventually decided that we would use the online mode for data collection. In the #USAtracker2016 we employ multiple providers of panels to randomize and remove the contact bias of any one particular sample provider, if any. Just like in our 2012 presidential polls, our exclusive Psephometer algorithm will be updated every day. So we will have the national projection as well as the state level projections on a daily basis. This will be a unique tracker from that perspective. What issues/items are we covering in our Presidential Tracker 2016? 1. National vote projection 2. Projections for 50 states 3. Timeline for the “swing” states 4. Ten most important issues: Top of mind recall 5. Who can solve this particular issue: Trump or Clinton 6. Perceptions of winning: Who is “seen" as winning as of today 7. Country going in right or wrong direction 8. Which of these candidates you feel like you will NEVER vote for 9. Tracking the Bernie Sanders supporters 10. Tracking non-Trump Republicans voters Code of conduct & IPR Details All our tracking polls conducted for media are released in public domain and report archives are available on public platform. We are proud to follow the WAPOR/ESOMAR Code of Conduct and meet the AAPOR Level 1 standard of disclosure. All publication rights for worldwide UPI releases remain with UPI, and all survey instruments, design and data IPR remain with CVoter. Contact: Yashwant Deshmukh, Editor, CVoter International: yashwant@teamcvoter.com Charlene Pacenti, Chief Content Officer, UPI: cpacenti@upi.com CYOTSR