Sound Transit Financial Model
Dashboard
September 21, 2016
Current Scenario Selected: Fully Integrated with ST2

Scenario Selection
ST2/ST3 Planning Model Version
Early Principal Redemption

Scheduled Debt Service (With Defeasance)
Millions

STFM 2016 V7 C
Yes

Defeasance Analysis - Summary of Assumptions & Results
Capital Program End Date
Early Principal Redemption Begins
Early Principal Redemption Ends
First Sales Tax Reduction Year
Total Amount of Early Principal Redemption
Total Amount of Callable Debt in First Year of Early Principal Redemption

Amount

Year
2041
2042
2047
2048

$11,173,285
$12,963,034

2042-2047
2042

Amount
$2,540,803

Year
2048

ST3 Sales Tax Revenue in First Year Following Full Defeasance
Debt Service Reduction as % of ST3 Sales Tax First Year Following Full Defeasance

$1,423,503
178.5%

2048
2048

Total Sales Tax Revenue in First Year Following Full Defeasance
Available Cash Flow as % of Total Sales Tax First Year Following Full Defeasance
Post-Defeasance Sales Tax Rate

$3,985,808
63.7%
0.51%

2048
2048
2048+

Amount
$4,687,081
54.2%

Year
2048
2048

$5,000
$4,500
$4,000
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000

Total Tax Reduction Based on Total Available Cash Flow
Total Tax Revenue in First Year Following Full Defeasance
Available Cash Flow as % of Total Tax First Year Following Full Defeasance

$500

 Principal Payments (Post‐Redemption)

 Interest Payments (Post‐Redemption)

 Early Principal Redemption

Cash Flow Available for Sales Tax Reduction

2060

2058

2056

2054

2052

2050

2048

2046

2044

2042

2040

2038

2036

2034

2032

2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

$0

Sales Tax Revenue vs. Available Cash Flow (Post‐Principal Redemption)
Millions

Sales Tax Reduction Based on Total Available Cash Flow
Available Cash Flow in First Year Following Full Defeasance

$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000

Additional Assumptions:
- Principal outstanding fully defeased before sales tax reduction
- Assumes future bonds are redeemed 10 years after the call date and TIFIA loans are callable at any time
- Interest calculation after start of early principal redemption assumes weighted avg. interest rate
(i.e. assumes principal is redeemed pro-rata, rather than highest cost debt defeased first)
- Additional cash flow for early redemption in 2042 of $959MM - reflects general fund balance less $5MM

$3,000
$2,000
$1,000

ST3 Sales Tax Revenue

ST2 Sales Tax Revenue

2060

2059

2058

2057

2056

2055

2054

2053

2052

2051

2050

2049

2048

2047

$0

Cash Flow Available for Sales Tax Reduction

SOURCES
ST2 Sales Tax Revenue
ST3 Sales Tax Revenue
Other Tax Revenue
Fare Revenue (ST2+ST3)
New Starts/Formula Grant Revenue
TIFIA Proceeds (East Link + MCA)
Interest Earnings
Other Revenue
Total Sources

2040
1,837,266
1,020,704
543,123
381,420
258,250
27,609
6,845
4,075,217

2041
1,915,210
1,064,005
560,455
395,232
262,375
29,391
7,096
4,233,765

2042
1,996,477
1,109,154
578,429
399,583
226,517
44,847
7,221
4,362,228

2043
2,081,210
1,156,228
597,071
411,358
165,868
25,667
7,349
4,444,751

2044
2,169,558
1,205,310
616,407
427,012
148,206
25,717
7,481
4,599,693

2045
2,261,677
1,256,487
636,466
462,202
140,604
25,799
7,615
4,790,850

2046
2,357,727
1,309,848
657,276
470,293
141,201
25,863
7,752
4,969,961

2047
2,457,878
1,365,488
678,868
477,770
141,803
25,932
7,893
5,155,631

2048
2,562,305
1,423,503
701,273
485,740
142,411
50,263
8,037
5,373,532

2049
2,671,193
1,483,996
724,524
493,105
143,025
102,175
8,184
5,626,202

2050
2,784,732
1,547,073
748,655
524,195
143,646
157,872
8,335
5,914,507

2051
2,903,123
1,612,846
773,702
537,379
144,272
214,613
8,489
6,194,423

2052
3,026,574
1,681,430
799,702
544,938
144,905
276,863
8,646
6,483,057

USES
Capital Projects
O&M
Rehab and Replacement
O&M Reserve Contribution
Capital Reserve Contribution
Total Uses (Exclusing Debt Service and Early Principal Redemption)

817,314
1,307,009
910,262
7,487
3,042,071

239,290
1,361,000
904,068
8,998
2,513,355

78,256
1,362,098
615,393
1,108
2,056,856

6,759
1,396,410
777,409
5,719
2,186,296

6,933
1,438,257
510,110
6,975
1,962,274

7,111
1,475,927
557,369
6,278
2,046,686

7,388
1,516,262
487,391
6,722
2,017,762

7,576
1,562,010
725,174
7,625
2,302,385

10,733
1,609,111
1,154,772
7,850
2,782,466

10,938
1,654,399
1,172,569
7,548
2,845,454

11,107
1,699,610
1,363,021
7,535
3,081,273

11,312
1,746,989
1,319,667
7,897
3,085,864

8,469
1,791,810
1,119,289
7,470
2,927,039

Cash Flow Available for Debt Service
Scheduled Debt Service
Additional Cash Flow for Early Principal Redemption
Cash Flow Available for Early Principal Redemption

1,033,146
(947,130)
86,016

1,720,410
(949,579)
770,830

2,305,372
(953,879)
959,019
2,310,512

2,258,454
(844,026)
1,414,428

2,637,419
(775,913)
1,861,505

2,744,164
(686,797)
0
2,057,366

2,952,198
(588,228)
0
2,363,971

2,853,246
(475,439)
0
2,377,807

2,591,066
2,591,066

2,780,748
2,780,748

2,833,234
2,833,234

3,108,559
3,108,559

3,556,019
3,556,019

2,310,512

1,414,428
-

1,861,505
-

2,057,366
-

2,363,971
-

1,165,502
1,212,305

2,591,066

2,780,748

2,833,234

3,108,559

3,556,019

Early Principal Redemption
Cash Flow Available for Sales Tax Reduction

-

-