1.0.13. Test Market Proposal DATES: OBJECTIVES: PROGRAM STRATEGIES: February, 1991 - August, 1991 Demonstrate that a consumer-based media awareness program can positively change the opinions of a selected population regarding the validity of global warming. Begin to develop a message and strategy for shaping public opinion on a national scale. Lay the solid groundwork for a unified national electric industry voice on global warming. Select test markets that meet the following criteria: a) market derives majority of electricity from' coal b) market is home to a member of the House Energy Commerce Committee or House Ways Means Committee c) market is smaller than #50, which translates into lower media costs Determine most advantageous population, within speCific markets, to base media awareness program. 7 Ere-test opinions of selected population regarding global warming. Fecus Group test I.C.E. name and creative .concepts. Proceed with media awareness program, utilizing radio/newspaper advertising and a public relations campaign. Post-test opinions of seleCted population regarding global warming. Program evaluation. If successful, implement program nationwide. RESEARCH STRATEGY: PUBLIC RELATIONS STRATEGY: CREATIVE STRATEGY: MEDIA STRATEGY: FUNDING: Determine most advantageous population, both attitudinally and demographically. Ascertain general level of understanding and measure degree of opinion shifts. The public relations campaign will involve the research, writing and preparation of background materials for use with the media. A minimum of eight discussion points will be communicated to the media. The radio creative will directly attack the proponents of global warming by relating irrefutable evidence to the contrary, delivered by a believable spokesperson in the radio broadcast industry. The print creative will attack proponents through comparison of global warming to historical or ical instances of gloom and doom. Each ad will invite the listener/reader to call or write for further information, thus creating a data base. - A radiO/newSpaper execution is recommended for the following reasons: a) believability b) ability to use high frequency (radio) and detailed copy (newspaper) c) cost effectiveness d) production flexibility For the test markets, splitting costs evenly among five participating utilities is recom- mended. If the program is implemented on a national basis, it mi ht be better to determine proportionate shares ased on coal-produced kWh. The test market funds will be collected as - follows: First 1/3 of commitment 2/1/91 Second 1/3 of commitment 3/1/91 Remainder of commitment 4/1/91 TIMELINE: Pre-test Research (4 weeks) 2/11/91 4 3/10/91 (3 weeks) Focus Group Test (4 weeks) 4/1/91 - 4/28/91 weeks) Media Awareness Program (4wks) 5/13/91 -r 6/9/91 (3 weeks) I Post-test Research (3 weeks) 7/1/91 7/21/91 (2 weeks) Final Presentation 1 . 8/5/91 BUDGET: $510,000 (three markets) Chattanooga, Tennessee Test Market MEDIA (1200 full-page ads) 5 75,000 PUBLIC RELATIONS 5 24,000 RESEARCH (500 interviews in each of two surveys/Focus Group) 5 43,000 PRODUCTION (Radio/Newspaper/Phone Number/Brochure/Postage) 54,000 I Champaign, Illinois Test Market Terry Bruce/House Energy Commerce Committee MEDIA (1200 full-page ads) 5 53,000 PUBLIC RELATIONS 24,000 I RESEARCH (500 interviews in each of two surveys) 43,000 PRODUCTION (Radio/Newspaper/Phone Number/Brochure/Postage) 54,000 0 0 I . Flagstaff, Arizona Test Market MEDIA (1200 full-page ads) 5 25,000 PUBLIC RELATIONS 24,000 RESEARCH .500 interviews in each of two surveys) 437530 - \?Zb (Radio/Newspaper/Phone Number/Brochure/Postage) 54,000 TOTAL$145,000 Fargo, North Dakota Test Market Byron Dorgan/House Ways Means Committee MEDIA (1200 full?page ads) 5 47,000 PUBLIC RELATIONS 24,000 RESEARCH (500 interviews in each of two surveys/Focus Group) 5 43,000 PRODUCTION (Radio/Newspaper/Phone Number/Brochure/Postage) 5 54,000 TOTAL5168;000 Potential Program Names Informed Citizens for the Environment Information Counci1_for the Environment Intelligent Concern for the Environment Informed Choices for the Environment INFORMED CITIZENS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT Tme?ne 1991 I 1992 Jan 1my 1809 JNov Jun Fauna 1-1 mo um um I am. sum Broadening our bl? Na?oml media program $312.3? 7- CITIZENS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT Test Market Prohct TuneIine Pro-us! Research (4 weeks) Focus Group Test (4 weeks) Mada Progrun (4 wuko) Post??93! Reward: (3 weeks) Final amnion (3-5-01) I 7 This report summarizes results of a benchmark survey of public awareness and opinion on issues related to global warming conducted in Chattanooga, Tennessee, Fargo, North Dakota, and Flagstaff, Arizona. 1 Methodology The survey is based on a total of 1500 interviews, 500 in each of the three cities included in the sample. All interviews were conducted by telephone between February 13 and February 22, 1991. Other important points include the following: - For each sample of 500 the mar of error is rcentage points at the midpoint of the 95 a con?dence interv All interviews were conducted by trained; ofessional interviewers under the supervision of the bridge Reports Field Department; After the interviewing was completed, a 16% sample of the interviews was independently validated to ensure that proper interviewing techniques were followed; All interviews were returned to Cambridge Reports for coding and data processing. Objectives The survey and analyst were conducted to identify the following: Current awareness of and familiarity with the global warming issue; Recent exposure to information concerning global warming, including the of media and sources in Which the information appeared; Responses to various messages concerning global warming; Assessments of the credibili of various spoke?persons and groups on tepics related to obal warming Keiaudiences and media for messages concerning glo al warming. hr Benchmark technical sources also favor choosing the title ?Information Council on the Environment? as the title for ICE, since this organization is perceived as a technical source, while "Informed Citizens for the Environment? carries both technical and activist connotations. As a general strategy, we recommend that ICE concentrate on comparing possible solutions to the global warming problem, focusing in particular on the proper role of government, the need for research, and the costliness of inappropriate or premature legislation. The audience for these messages needs to see its personal stake in the issue if they are to become actively engaged and committed. More speci?cally, the results of this study point toward two possible target audiences. One possible target audience includes those who are most receptive to messages describingthe motivations and vested interests of people currently making pronouncements on global warming-for example, the statement that some members of the media scare the public about global warming to increase their audience and their influence. People who respond most favorably to such statements are older, less-educated males from larger households, who are not typically active information-seekers, and are not likely to be ?green?. consumers. Members of this group are skeptical about global warming, predisposed to favor the ICE agenda, and likely to be even more supportive of that agenda following exposure to new information. They are not, however, accustomed to taking political action. They are good targets for radio advertisements. Another possible target segment is younger, lower-income women. These women are more receptive than other audience segments to factual information concerning the evidence for global warming. They are likely to be ??green" consumers, to believe the earth is warming, and to think the problem is serious. However, they are also likely to soften their support for federal legislation after hearing new information on global warming. These women are good urgets for magazine advertisements. A campaign strategy reaching out to these target groups help to change attitudes where change is most likely to occur, and also to strengthen support among favorable members of the public. ICE Benchmark 0 Overall, a plurali of respondens choose the most conservative role for the feder government. Over one-third of the total sample (three cities combined) say the government should finance more research, while 30% support passage of legislation, and 24% would pass some laws but avoid cosdy programs. 0 Similar to responses on other measures, Flagstaff residents are more likely than residents of Chattanooga or Fargo (25% each) to back federal legislation without any quali?cation concerning cost. Speci?c responses to an open-ended question indicate that depletion of the ozone layer dominates tap-of-mind concerns about global warming. Asked to describe global warming in their own words, just over one?quarter of all ndents cite destruction of the ozone layer, followed close by changes in the weather and rises in temperature caused by pollution. 0 Only 6% of all respondents name the greenhouse effect when asked to desu-ibe what global warming meam to them. Audience profile In addition to perceptual and attitudinal measures, we also asked respondents about certain behaviors which might make them more or less receptive to information on global warming, and may also indicate the likelihood that they might take action on global warming issues. These behavioral measures are included frequently in the analyses dismissed in this report, and include political activism, environmental activism, and likelihood of information-seeking. 0 Looking at results for one measure'of litical activism, just under one-quarter of all respon ents either contacted an elected ot?cral, wrote to an editor, or worked for a political candidate during the last ear. Political activism is more common in Flagstaff (31% than in either Chattanooga or Fargo 0 Overall, 36% of all rewondents have contributed to or been active in an environmental cause during the past year, and 22% identity strongly with the label 'environmentalist.? Combining these two measures, we ?nd that 13% of all ndents in this survey meet the Cambridge Reports de?nition for 'green" - consumers-very close to our most recent national ?gure of 12% (March 1991). ICE Benchmark Finally, the two statements referring directly to scientists say that scientists don't know whether carbon dioxide is causing global warming, and that some of the scientists predicting global warming said twenty yeztrs ago that the earth was getting colder. 0 On average, respondents are as Hie-12! to agree with statements about motivations behind public ormation on global warming as they are to agree with statements about the evidence for global warming. 0 On average, respondents are less likely to agree with statements about scientists and their theories than the areto agree with statements about motivations for public information or statements about evidence for glo a1 warming. 0 Respondents are most likely to agree with the statement that recent satellite data shows the earth is getting warmer. 0 Percentages of ?don't know" responses reveal that members of the public feel more comfortable expressing Opinions on others' motivations and tactics than they do expressin opinions on scienti?c issues. Nearly all respondents rovi ratings for statements on motivations, while somew at fewer express opiniors on evidence, and still fewer are willing to pass judgment on scientiss. To explore these three types of messages further, we calculated an index for each set of statements (motivation, evidence, and scientisS), based?on results of the factor analysis. We then divided the sample into low, medium, and high agreement with each index, or set of items, to identify groups most likely to agree or disagree with each type of message. . A plurality of Chattanooga residents agrees strongly with motivational statements saying that some groups scare the public abouit?global warming to promote their own economic mterests, Flagstaff re51dents are most likely to disagree with these statements, and Fargo residens most often take a moderate position. 0 Based on results for the evidence index, Fargo residents are least likely to agree that current evidence supports global warming, while Flagstaff residents are more hkel to accept the evidence. Chattanooga residents are closely divi ed between low, moderate, and high a eement, although they are more likely than others to give on?t know? responses. - lCiE Benchmark A factor analysis performed on the fourteen cedibility ratings indicates that respondents group information sources into four types: industry spokespersons (local electric company, coal industry, Electric information Council, and Paul Harvey); activist spokespersons (Ralph Nader, Sierra Club, Carl Sagan, Informed Citizens for the Environment); technical Spoke5persons (Information Council for the Environment, federal environmental officials, environmental scientist, Informed Citizens for the Environment); and individual spokespersons (Bruce Williams, Steven Schneider, Rush limbaugh). (The second title for Informed Citizens for the Environment-is perceived as combining attributes of activist and technical sources, and is treated as a member of both groups in the analysis.) 0 Technical sources receive the highest overall credibility ratings, followed closely by activist sources. 0 industry sources and individual Epokespersons receive'lower overall credibility ratings than ei er activist or technical sources. Results also include extreme variations in recognition among the different information sources in the list. In fact, combining responses for those who have not heard of a source, do not know the source?s credibility on global warming, or cannot rate the source as credible or not credible, the percentage not rating individual sources ranges from 13% (local electric company) to 92% (Steven Schneider). 0 Industry sources are rated by more respondents than other types of sources, with the local electric company receiving the most ratings, and Paul Harvey second. - 0 Individual spokspersons (Bruce Williams, Steven Schneider, Rush Limbaugh) have lower overall recognition than other typoes of sources, receiving ratings from an average of only 15% 0 all responde. 0 In general, recognition for activist and technical sources falls in - between recognition for industry sources and recognition for individual spokespersons. .- ICE Benchmark -ll- 0 Those who are most likel to ?nd activists crediblet ically are already familiar with glo a1 warming issues, and are ikely to seek further information on the topic. They believe the earth is warming, rate the problem as serious, and support action a through federal legislatron. Demographicall the are most likely to be male, between 36 and 45 years 0 age, om higher education and income groups, or to be ?green? comurners. 0 Technical sources receive hi hest credibility ratings from youn er females (eSpecially ose from 13 to 7.5 years of age) with ower incomes and some colle education. Members of this oup are not familiar with glo a1 warming, althou it they are 'ely to seek further information, and the are goo targets for television advertising. The believe in glo a1 warming and support immediate federal legislation. They tend to rate global warming as a serious problem, and to rate it as even more serious after exposure to information on the rcpic. Attitude change As we reported earlierin this report, majorities of respondents see global warming as a problem which is at least somewhat serious, while a plurality endorse a limited role for the federal government in dealing with the problem. . To identify audience members who are most likely to undergo attitude change in response to new information, we repeated these two items late in the interview, after respondents had heard the series of statements concerning global warming. Comparing results on these key attitude measures, we find that exposure to information about global warming, regardless of its slant, leads to increases in perceived seriousness of global wamting as a problem?most of those who "switch" attitudes on seriousness of global warming rate the problem as more serious after hearing the statements in the interview. However, the same messages lead to attitude change both directiors on the proper role for the federal government in dealing with global warming-respondents are just as likely to switch to less extreme positions (advocating further research) as they are to switch to more extreme positions (advocating legislation). In general, Chattanooga residents are more likely to change their positions than are residents of either Fargo or Flagstaff. 0 Overall, nearly two in ten respondents rate global warming as more serious after hearing the statemens in the interview. Notably, Chattanooga residents are most like}; to switch to a more serious rating, compared with Fargo - (19 a) or Flagstaff arms-av:- . ICE Benchmark -l3- Similarly, we looked at associations between attitude change during the interview and the types of messages with which respondenm tend to agree. a Across the board, perceived seriousness of global warming inaeases With exposure to the statemens in the interview. 0 The same respondents who express skepticism on global warming issues nevertheless tend to rate the problem as more serious after hearing the statements in the interview. 0 Respondents who are most dubious about scientiss are likely to chan toward supporting research, and away from supporting Iegis a?on. - Those who agree that some sources scare the public for their own ends are more likely to switch toward support of research, and away from support of legislation. 0 Those who agree most stroneg that the evidence supports global warmmg are neverthe ess more likely to switch toward su port of research, and less likely to incem their support for fe eral legislation on global warming. Key media As noted above, three in ten respondens have heard or seen something about global warming during the last 30 days. To identin edsting sources for awareness of global warming, we asked this group to identify the medium that carried the information, as well as whether. they saw a news story, a paid advertisement, or both. 0 The most common medium for information on global warming is television. Nearly half of Chattanooga residents recalling recent information on global warming name television as a source, compared with fewer than four in ten in Fargo and Flagstaff. 0 Residents of the three cities are equall likel to have heard something about global warming on ra or to have read something about global warming in a magagine or newspaper. 0 Nearl nine in ten of those recalling recent information on lob warmin say they saw or heard a news story, while one in ten recall be a paid advertisement and a news story. ICE Benchmark -1 5- 0 Respondents who switch to a less serious rating of global warrnin are more likely to have received their own information from ra id or newspapers, compared with those who switch to a more serious rating. 0 Respondens who switch from favorin legislative solutions toward favoring research funding are 5 less likely to have gotten information on global warming from telev'uion, compared with those who switch toward favoring legislation. 0 Respondents who switch positiom either way-toward research. or toward legislation-are unlikely to have gotten information on global warming from radio. 0 Those who switch toward research are more likely to receive information on global warming from magazines, compared with those who switch toward egislative solutions. 0 Respondents who switch toward favoring research and respondents who switch toward favorin le 'slation are equally likely to have received information on oba warming from newspapers. Conclusion: communication strategies The results reviewed above support a series of conclusions concerning the types of sources and messages to which audiences are likely to respond most favorably. 0 Technical and expert sources have the highest credibility among . a broad range of members of the public. 0 The Information Council for the Environment can be seen as an expert technical source. 0 Moderate credibility of or industry sources is associated . with a shift toward the] agenda. Therefore, an "approachable" technical expert can present a good case for a cost- effective solution that meets the joint economic and environmental interess of consumers and industry. @?@gnegm FEBZ [199: is}. b, a u. Informed Citizens for the Environment