Poll Presidential Tracker 2016 Current projections based on daily tracking poll conducted online during last seven days among 18+ adults nationwide, including likely voters, details of which are mentioned right below the projections as of today. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile of the United States, including the Census. Sometimes the table figures the effects of rounding. UPI Ewen Tracking Poll #PrezTracker2016 Results of rollover samples of last 7 days ending on: Date Clinton Trump Others 10/10/2016 5 50.23 44.09 5.68 10/11/2016 50.63 44.22 5.15 Change 5 0.40 0.13 -0.53 Lead (D-R) 6.41 Survey Fieldwork Dates Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters 10/05/2016 5 10/11/2016 5 1927 1367 As Of Today Clinton Trump Others Change:1 Week 5 3.44 5 -3.61 5 0.02 Change:2 Week 5 2.77 -3.47 0.69 Change:3 Week 5 2.52 -2.93 0.41 Change:4 Week 5 3.58 -3.71 5 0.12 Change:5 Week 5 3.79 -2.97 5 -0.82 Change:6 Week 5 1.69 i -1.89 i 0.18 USTrackerZOl 40/0 8,00 8,0 q; 69 q; 8; 8,9 0,9 8,90) go; gig?) 09 0000 0000000 000000000 -0- Clinton Trump Others If the U.S. presidential election was held today, which candidate would you vote for? (Close Ended Options: Donald Trump I Hillary Clinton I Other Candidate I Will vote, but undecided right now] I will not vote in coming elections) *Excluding Undecided/LV Only* #October2016 Clinton Margin (D-R) Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters USA 5 50.63 44.22 i 5.15 6.41 10/05/2016 10/11/2016 5 1927 i 1367 USA 50.23 44.09 5.68 6.14 10/04/2016 10/10/2016 1915 1367 USA 49.92 44.39 5.69 5.53 10/03/2016 10/09/2016 1891 1350 USA 48.20 45.86 5.94 2.34 10/02/2016 10/08/2016 1862 1325 USA 47.66 46.71 5.63 0.95 10/01/2016 10/07/2016 1813 1286 USA 47.74 46.70 5.56 1.04 09/30/2016 10/06/2016 1774 1250 USA 47.26 47.36 5.38 -0.10 09/29/2016 10/05/2016 1783 1257 USA 47.19 47.83 4.98 -0.64 09/28/2016 10/04/2016 1800 1274 USA 47.34 48.51 4.15 ?1 .17 09/27/2016 10/03/2016 1806 1275 USA 46.89 49.38 3.73 ?2.49 09/26/2016 10/02/2016 1836 1285 USA 47.53 49.02 3.45 -1 .49 09/25/2016 10/01/2016 1861 1288 #September2016 Sample Size Likely Voters Ending on Starting on .m m. a 5 09/24/2016 5 09/30/2016 i 1770 5 1223 -113 1236 -197 1234 -183 1239 047 1174 -021 1052 067 1022 235 1091 169 1098 298 1073 042 1075 096 1160 200 1203 118 1229 -OJ6 1246 004 1229 -061 1265 -097 1245 -088 1232 -318 1260 -295 1244 -375 1260 -272 1256 -247 1226 -108 1262 -035 1220 201 1237 205 1242 085 1142 412 1172 053 #August2016 Sample Size Likely Voters Ending on Starting on m. .m m. a 08/31/2016 i 1705 5 1173 08/25/2016 231 1162 283 1173 271 1145 309 1157 301 1211 -044 1183 062 1196 -079 1187 -070 1214 087 1259 074 1191 0?72 1096 360 993 324 1009 422 1069 356 1037 648 975 580 974 350 1045 1138 1107 477 920 1002 220 993 347 960 4382 1036 727 1038 643 1060 640 1009 388 934 387 1006 210 #July2016 Clinton Margin (D-R) Starting on Ending on Sample Size Likely Voters USA 5 48.96 5 46.11 5 4.94 5 2.85 07/25/2016 5 07/31/2016 5 1308 5 989 USA 47.42 47.60 4.97 -0.18 07/24/2016 07/30/2016 1437 1078 USA 47.28 47.80 4.93 ?0.52 07/23/2016 07/29/2016 1403 1048 USA 46.26 48.55 5.20 ?2.29 07/22/2016 07/28/2016 1272 949 USA 45.76 48.94 5.30 -3.18 07/21/2016 07/27/2016 1332 992 USA 45.03 48.97 6.00 ?3.94 07/20/2016 07/26/2016 1475 1089 USA 44.83 49.11 6.05 -4.28 07/19/2016 07/25/2016 1400 1023 USA 44.43 49.18 6.38 -4.75 07/18/2016 07/24/2016 1274 932 USA 44.05 48.90 7.04 -4.85 07/17/2016 07/23/2016 1021 733 USA 43.81 48.23 7.96 ?4.42 07/16/2016 07/22/2016 978 701 USA 44.02 47.07 8.90 ?3.05 07/15/2016 07/21/2016 1157 843 USA 44.52 45.13 10.35 ?0.61 07/14/2016 07/20/2016 1187 895 USA 44.69 42.98 12.33 1.71 07/13/2016 07/19/2016 1167 905 USA 44.66 41.23 14.11 3.43 07/12/2016 07/18/2016 1281 1012 USA 45.22 39.41 15.37 5.81 07/11/2016 07/17/2016 1490 1188 USA 44.43 38.72 16.84 5.71 07/10/2016 07/16/2016 1553 1264 USA 44.24 39.69 16.09 4.55 07/09/2016 07/15/2016 1914 1581 USA 43.46 42.05 14.50 1 .41 07/08/2016 07/14/2016 2000 1652 Methodology Tracker Details Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of online polls is measured using a credibility interval. The error due to sampling for projections based on the Likely Voter sample; could be plus or minus 3 percentage points at the national level and plus or minus 5 percentage points at state level. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Rather than conducting a regular survey with one single wave of approximately 1,400 respondents every week, we are interviewing about 200 respondents daily. We make a rollover master file every day from the samples collected in the last 7 days; this gives us a new sample of about 1,400 every day. Thus, rather than a routine weekly tracker, the Poll is a daily tracker, giving the public opinion trends on a daily basis. We will analyze the Presidential Tracker over the rest of the campaign until Election Day. The data collection started July 8 and will continue until Nov. 7. Technically speaking, we are conducting 17 weekly waves of 1,400 respondents each. But by splitting that sample into 200 interviews every day, and making one rollover file of the last 7 days every day, we would be able to do 100 waves of 1,400 samples each. In other words, this gives us an opportunity of analyze fresh data daily for the remainder of the campaign through Election Day. We did multiple rounds of pilots with different platforms, both online and offline, and eventually decided that we would use the online mode for data collection. In the #USAtracker2016 we employ multiple providers of panels to randomize and remove the contact bias of any one particular sample provider, if any. Just like in our 2012 presidential polls, our exclusive Psephometer algorithm will be updated every day. So we will have the national projection as well as the state level projections on a daily basis. This will be a unique tracker from that perspective. What issues/items are we covering in our Presidential Tracker 2016? . National vote projection . Projections for 50 states . Timeline for the ?swing? states . Ten most important issues: Top of mind recall . Who can solve this particular issue: Trump or Clinton . Perceptions of winning: Who is ?seen? as winning as of today . Country going in right or wrong direction . Which of these candidates you feel like you will NEVER vote for . Tracking the Bernie Sanders supporters . Tracking non-Trump Republicans voters 0 Code of conduct IPR Details All our tracking polls conducted for media are released in public domain and report archives are available on public platform. We are proud to follow the Code of Conduct and meet the AAPOR Level 1 standard of disclosure. All publication rights for worldwide UPI releases remain with UPI, and all survey instruments, design and data IPR remain with CVoter. Contact: Yashwant Deshmukh, Editor, CVoter International: yashwant@teamcvoter.com Charlene Pacenti, Chief Content Officer, UPI: cpacenti@upi.com UPI WEWER