©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 16 24 OCTOBER 2016 WA Democrats Consolidating Electoral Advantage Washington Democrats are poised for a good day on November 8. With two weeks until voting ends Democrats enjoy a 16-point advantage over Republicans in party identi ication; their top-of-ticket candidates have strengthened their leads; Democrats are leading in four of the six statewide down-ballot races; and voters are more likely to vote for Democrats than Republicans for the state legislature by a 4:3 margin. Republican need to win some Democrat votes to win statewide in Washington. That is especially hard to do this year. Democrats in Washington appear to have closed ranks adding strength to their numerical advantage: 90% or more of Democrats are voting for Clinton, Murray and Inlsee; 78% of Democrats in this survey were voting only for Democrats. Still, there is the possibility that Washington will live up to its old ticket-spitting reputation. Republicans are guaranteed one statewide of ice, thanks to the top two primary system advancing two Republicans to the inal for State Treasurer; Republicans are leading for Secretary of State and virtually tied for Lt. Governor; and, of course, legislative seats are decided in particular districts, not statewide. GOVERNOR’S RACE The most closely watched race has been the race for Governor. Just because it has been closely watched doesn’t mean there has been much to see. Each candidate was only 3 points higher in this survey than they registered in April. Governor Jay Inlsee’s 3 points put him over 50% for the irst time since his election four years ago. Inslee led in this survey 51% to 39%. For Republican challenger Bill Bryant, 3 points is all he has managed to gain since he entered the race last spring. His campaign has struggled to gain traction and expand beyond the default Republican vote. Bryant led among Republicans (83-9%) and even among Independents (47-36%), but with Democrats outnumbering both Republicans (40-24%) and Independents (36%), Bryant’s leads with those voters are not enough to overcome Inslee’s 913% advantage among Democrats. Plus, Inslee led in this survey among actual ticket-splitters (48-43%). Inslee led in this survey among both men and women, every age group, every level of education, every income bracket, and every area of the state but Eastern Washington, where Bryant led 50-42%. US SENATE RACE Even more uneventful than the Governor’s race has been the race for the US Senate. Incumbent Patty Murray has led from the start, climbing to a 58-34% lead last weekend. Republican challenger Chris Vance entered the race at 23% last Fall, got to 32% in April and has added only 2 more points since then. Like Inslee, Murray led in every demographic category in this survey; however Murray’s leads were larger than Inslee’s. © THE ELWAY POLL Excerpts may be quoted with attribution. GOVERNOR’S RACE US SENATE RACE ©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 16 STATEWIDE RACES The big question for most of the year has been about the down-ballot effect of the Clinton-Trump race for president. That is somewhat less of an issue in Washington where Democrats hold all but one statewide of ice and have held most of them for a generation. Voters rely heavily on party identi ication to inform their votes on these down-ballot of ices. In this survey, partisans were solidly behind their party’s candidates, but no candidate in any of the six partisan races had a majority. There has been little change in the last three months; and with just two weeks until election day 1/4 to 1/3 of voters were undecided in each of these races (see p.3). The importance of party identi ication is demonstrated in the two races where party is not a factor: the non-partisan race for Superintendent of Public Instruction and the two-Republican race for State Treasurer. In both those races 2/3 of these likely voters were undecided. Bottom line: all these down-ballot races are up for grabs. All but one was within the margin of error, and at least 1/3 of voters were undecided in each race. Insurance Commissioner is the lone exception. CLINTON LEADS TRUMP 48-31% AS VOTERS COALESCE AROUND MAJOR PARTIES Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump shrunk slightly from 19 to 17 points since August, as both candidates added support. Clinton added 5 points since August while Trump added 7 points. The gains for both major party candidates came at the expense of third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Between them, Johnson and Stein had 11% of the vote in August, but had only 2% last weekend. The number of undecided voters dropped by 6 points and the number who said they would not vote dropped by 2 points. Democrats have rallied around Clinton to a greater extend than RACE FOR PRESIDENT Republicans have rallied to Trump: • Among Democrats, 89% planned to vote for Clinton, 2% for Trump, 3% for someone else, 2% won’t vote and 5% were undecided; • Among Republicans, 77% planned to vote for Trump, 7% for Clinton, 3% for Johnson, 3% won’t vote and 11% were undecided; • Among Independents, it was 32% for Trump, 31% for Clinton, 13% for Johnson, 3% for Stein, 7% not voting and 15% undecided. Clinton’s rally is further evidenced by the proportion of her voters who were positive about her: 45% of Clinton supporters said their vote was intended to “put her in the White House,” while 27% said the purpose of their vote was to “keep Trump out of the White House.” 26% said those were equally motivating factors. For Trump voters, the reasons were the opposite: 29% were voting to elect Trump; 42% were voting to keep Clinton out of the White House; 28% said those were equal factors in their vote. Survey respondents were also asked how well each candidate represented their respective party. 90% of Democrats said that Clinton represents “the views of the Democratic Party today” very well (48%) or “mostly” (42%). 62% of Republicans said Trump represents the views of the Republican party ( 17% “very well” + 45% “mostly”). 36% of Republicans said Trump does not represent the views of the party (23% “not very well” + 13% “not at all”). All of these indings suggest a Democratic Party more uni ied than their Republican counterparts heading into the last two weeks of the campaign. INTENTION OF VOTE DOES CANDIDATE REPRESENT THEIR PARTY 2 ©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 16 State Races are Highly Partisan Affairs LT. GOVERNOR HABIB LED • STATISTICAL TIE HIGHLY PARTISAN • • Democrats (74-6%) Seattle (69-17%) Clinton voters (66-8%) MCCLENDON LED • • • • • PODLODOWSKI LED SECRETARY OF STATE • • WYMAN HOLDS LEAD PODLODOWSKI GAINS • • Democrats (75-11%) Seattle (69-19%) Other King Co (39-35%) Clinton voters (65-16%) WYMAN LED • • • • • AUDITOR MCCARTHY LED • NO CHANGE SINCE AUGUST MCCARTHY HOLDS LEAD • • • • Democrats (71-5%) Seattle (55-16%) Western WA (42-26%) Clinton voters (63-6%) Women (41-24%) LANDS COMMISSIONER FRANZ LED FRANZ EDGES UP MCLAUGHLIN SLIPS • • • • • INSURANCE COMMISSIONER MILOSCIA LED • • • • Republicans (66-6%) Independents (31-25%) Eastern WA (41-24%) Trump voters (61-10%) MCLAUGHLIN LED • • • • Republicans (67-6%) Independents (37-19%) Eastern WA (43-19%) Trump voters (67-6%) Incumbent Mike Kreidler did not top 50% in this survey, but held a lead in every category of voter measured here except Republicans, Western Washington voters, voters under 35 and voters who had not attended college. In most of the categories were Kreidler led, his leads were in double digits. • In the races for State Treasurer and Superintendent of Public Instruction, more than two-thirds of voters— likely voters—did not name a preference. What these two race have in common is that they are both non-partisan: the SPI race by design and the Treasurer’s race by virtue of the Top Two Primary system advancing two Republicans into the General Election. • SUPT. OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION Republicans (81-4%) Independents (49-17%) Ticket Splitters (61-21%) Outside King (47-32%) Trump voters (81-3%) • KREIDLER IN COMMAND TREASURER Democrats (70-4%) Seattle (59-17%) Other King Co. (39-25%) Women (39-28%) Clinton voters (63-7%) Republicans (80-4%) Independents (44-19%) Ticket Splitters (50-28%) Eastern WA (52-25%) Trump voters (78-3%) • • All of the other races for the statewide constitutional offices are highly partisan. Each candidate has a sizable base built in. Without the cues of party identification, voters appear at a loss to know how to decide. 3 ©THE ELWAY POLL 24 OCT 16 3 of 6 Initiatives with Majority Support I-1501: Consumer Fraud Initiative 1501 concerns seniors and vulnerable individuals. It would increase the penalties for identity theft and consumer fraud targeted at seniors or vulnerable individuals; and exempt certain information of vulnerable individuals and in-home caregivers from public disclosure. I-1491: Extreme Risk Protection Initiative 1491 concerns court-issued extreme risk protection orders temporarily preventing access to firearms. It would authorize courts, upon petition by police or a family or household member, to issue an extreme risk protection order to prevent an individual from accessing firearms for a specified time period, if the court finds that the individual poses a significant danger of causing personal injury to himself or others with a firearm. I-1433: Minimum Wage Initiative 1433 concerns labor standards. It would increase the state minimum wage to $11 dollars in 2017, $11.50 in 2018, $12 dollars in 2019 and $13,50 in 2020, and would require employers to provide paid sick leave and adopt related law. I-735: Campaign Spending Initiative 735 concerns a proposed amendment to the federal constitution. It would urge the Washington state congressional delegation to propose a federal constitutional amendment that constitutional rights belong only to individuals, not corporations, and constitutionallyprotected free speech excludes the spending of money. I-732: Carbon Tax Initiative 732 concerns taxes. It would impose a carbon emission tax on certain fossil fuels and fossil-fuelgenerated electricity, reduce the sales tax by one percentage point and increase a low-income exemption, and reduce certain manufacturing taxes. I-1464: Campaign Finance Initiative 1464 would create a campaign-finance system; allow residents to direct state funds to candidates; repeal the non-resident sales-tax exemption; restrict lobbying employment by certain former public employees; and add enforcement requirements. CONSISTENT STRONG SUPPORT ACROSS THE BOARD • 78% of Democrats • 70% of Republicans • 72% in King County • 66% in Eastern WA • 83% of voters under 35 • 65% of voters over 65 SLIGHT UPTICK IN ALREADY STRONG SUPPORT • 83% of Democrats • 52% of Republicans • 72% in King County • 56% in Eastern WA • 53% of voters under 35 • 66% of voters over 65 SHARP DIFFERENCES, BUT UNCHANGED SUPPORT • 85% of Democrats • 31% of Republicans • 68% in King County • 38% in Eastern WA • 63% of voters under 35 • 59% of voters over 65 SLIGHT GAIN SINCE AUGUST • 64% of Democrats • 28% of Republicans • 51% in King County • 40% in Eastern WA • 49% of voters under 35 • 45% of voters over 65 PARTISAN GULF, BUT SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN SUPPORT • 61% of Democrats • 19% of Republicans • 64% in Seattle • 23% in Eastern WA • 51% of voters under 35 • 39% of voters over 65 NO MOVEMENT, LITTLE SUPPORT • 46% of Democrats • 24% of Republicans • 38% in King County • 29% in Eastern WA 4 ©THE ELWAY POLL Sample Profile 502 likely voters, selected at random from voter lists in Washington state, were interviewed October 20-22, 2016 by live, professional interviewers. 41% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within ±4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times. REGION King County ............................................ 30% Pierce/Kitsap .......................................... 15% No. Puget Sound .................................... 17% Western WA ........................................... 17% Eastern WA ............................................ 20% GENDER Male........................................................ 49% Female ................................................... 51% PARTY IDENTIFICATION Democrat ................................................ 40% Republican ............................................ 24% Independent ........................................... 36% AGE 18-35 ...................................................... 12% 36-50 ...................................................... 19% 51-64 ...................................................... 38% 65+ ......................................................... 29% EDUCATION LEVEL High School or Less ............................... 14% Some College / Voc-Tech ...................... 23% College Degree ...................................... 40% Graduate School .................................... 21% HOUSEHOLD INCOME <$50,000 ................................................ 22% $50-75,000 ............................................. 19% $75-100,000 ........................................... 16% $100,000+ .............................................. 30% No Answer .............................................. 12% VOTE HISTORY (last 4 elections) Registered since 2014 ............................. 8% 1-votes.................................................... 20% 2 votes .................................................... 18% 3 votes .................................................... 21% 4 votes .................................................... 33% 24 OCT 16 Ticket Splitters Up to 30% The proportion of Washington voters who intend to split their ticket rose to 30% in this survey, up from 24% three months ago. Ticket splitting is calculated here by counting the number of Republicans and Democrats respondents planned to vote for among the 8 partisan statewide races (including President). A large number of voters remain undecided about particular races, so those numbers are subject to change. Overall: 30% were planning to vote for candidates of both parties; including 13% who were voting for at least 3 of each party; and 15% who were voting for only one candidate from the other party. Meanwhile: 41% of respondents were planning to vote only for Democrats so far; including 19% voting for Democrats in all 8 races; On the other side: 28% were voting only for Republicans so far, including: 13% voting for all 8 Republicans. The Elway Poll The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public opinion in Washington and the Northwest. PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each quarter, space is reserved in the questionnaire to allow for proprietary questions. The fee for proprietary questions is $1000 per question. You will receive the results of your question(s) with full crosstabulations within two days after the interviews are completed. The Elway Poll Seattle, WA 206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301 epoll@elwayresearch.com Among ticket splitters in this survey: • Inslee led Bryant 48-43% for Governor; • Clinton led Trump 41-28% for President; • Murray led Vance 66-30% for US Senate; • McClendon led Habib 50-28% for Lt. Governor; • Wyman led Podlodowski 61-21% for Sec’y of State; • McCarthy led Miloscia 40-30% for State Auditor; • McLaughlin led Franz 35-31% for Lands Comm; • Kreidler led Schrock 48-23% for Insurance Comm, 5