mam m0; -w-H n.n my. w? Muwmmu.l I- . I JJImuwWELCOME Educate Maine is pleased to present the Education Indicators for Maine 2016 report. This is the fourth installment of this annual report developed to explore and understand Maine’s entire education system beginning in early childhood and continuing throughout adulthood. This is a snapshot of that system presented through critical indicators that measure access, participation, and performance across the system. The health of the whole system is our priority. In keeping with this, no one indicator tells a complete story. Taken together, they do provide the reader a view of what is working well and where we need to invest more time and resources. We believe that education is the key to Maine people’s success therefore starting early and providing multiple pathways to gain skills and experience throughout life will provide greater opportunities for individuals, communities, and the economy. Participation in high quality educational programs during early childhood will lay the foundation on which all future success depends. Gaining skills through a variety of experiences and demonstrating proficiency in meeting rigorous and relevant standards will prepare students to continue on to college and career. Identifying a plan after high school and sticking with it will lead to productive and civically engaged citizens. And in our rapidly evolving economy, engaging in the learning process throughout adulthood will drive personal and economic growth. The intent of this report is to establish an accurate and common foundation of data to discuss Maine’s education system. This report’s audience includes all education stakeholders: educators, families, students, employers, policy leaders, and advocacy groups. We hope that you find this information helpful in advancing a constructive conversation about the future of Maine’s education system and the well-being of all Maine people. Cheers, MISSION AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS EDMUND CERVONE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR EDUCATE MAINE Educate Maine is a business-led education advocacy organization championing college and career readiness, and increased education attainment. Educate Maine believes that education is the catalyst and foundation for individual success, engaged citizenship, and sustainable economic growth; and that all Maine people should have equal access to high quality educational opportunities. We would like to thank the following individuals, organizations, and businesses who have helped guide the development of Education Indicators for Maine 2016: Educate Maine board members Duke Albanese, Paul Bolin, Cari Medd, and Laurie Lachance; Colleen Quint of the Alfond Scholarship Foundation; Tony Cipollone of the John T. Gorman Foundation; Cherie Galyean of the Maine Community Foundation; and Dr. Flynn Ross of the University of Southern Maine. Lisa Plimpton of Plimpton Research conducted the research and analysis. Mariette Aborn, a Bowdoin College student wrote the narrative. Pica of Belfast, Maine was responsible for design and layout. Franklin Printing of Farmington, Maine was responsible for printing. This report is underwritten through the generous support of the John T. Gorman Foundation, the Maine Community Foundation, and the Nellie Mae Education Foundation. Copyright 2016 Educate Maine This report is available at indicators.educatemaine.org. TEN INDICATORS These ten indicators follow the path of Maine children as they grow and learn. We look at participation in educational programs in early childhood because those experiences lay the foundation on which all future education is based. We examine performance from first grade through high school because we understand the importance of demonstrating proficiency at one level in order to be ready to achieve at the next level. Finally, we study postsecondary outcomes because, ultimately, it is educational attainment—in all its forms—that we seek to measure and celebrate. EDUCATE MAINE MISSION GOALS 100 STUDENTS % OF IN MAINE WILL GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL PREPARED FOR SUCCESS IN POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION AND THE WORKPLACE 44 MAINERS WHO % OF ARE 25 YEARS AND OLDER WILL POSSESS A COLLEGE DEGREE, CERTIFICATE OR INDUSTRY CREDENTIAL, ATTAINING OR SURPASSING THE NEW ENGLAND AVERAGE BY 2019. 2019 GOALS PAGE INDICATOR WHERE WE STARTED (2013) WHERE WE STAND 8 PRESCHOOL PARTICIPATION 43% of 3- & 4-year-olds were enrolled in public or private preschool 45% of 3- & 4-year-olds are enrolled in public or private preschool 50% of 3- & 4-year-olds will be enrolled in a public or private preschool 32% of 4-year-olds were enrolled in public Pre-K 36% of 4-year-olds are enrolled in public Pre-K 64% of 4-year-olds will be enrolled in public Pre-K 9 PRESCHOOL ACCESS 49% of Maine school districts offered public Pre-K 72% of Maine school districts offer public Pre-K Maine will offer consistent and quality public Pre-K programming to 100% of Maine 4-year-olds 10 FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN 87% of Maine school districts offered full-day kindergarten 92% of Maine school districts offer full-day kindergarten 100% of Maine school districts will offer full-day kindergarten 12 4TH GRADE ACHIEVEMENT 37% and 47% of 4th grade students were at or above proficiency in reading and math, respectively 36% and 41% of 4th grade students are at or above proficiency in reading and math, respectively Maine students will increase their proficiency in reading to 44% and in math to 54% 14 8TH GRADE ACHIEVEMENT 38% and 40% of 8th grade students were at or above proficiency in reading and math, respectively 35% of 8th grade students are at or above proficiency in reading and math Maine students will increase their proficiency in reading to 45% and in math to 47% 16 HIGH SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT 48% of 11th grade students were at or above proficiency in reading and math 48% and 49% of 11th grade students are at or above proficiency in reading and math, respectively 70% of Maine students in grade eleven will be proficient in reading and math 85% of Maine students graduated from high school 88% of Maine students graduated from high school 90% of Maine students will graduate from high school 62% of Maine students enrolled in college within one year of graduating from high school 62% of Maine students enrolled in college within one year of graduating from high school 66% of Maine students will enroll in college within one year of graduating from high school 85% of Maine first-year students returned for a second year at a college institution 83% of Maine first-year students returned for a second year at a college institution 88% of Maine first-year students will return for a second year of college 19 COLLEGE-GOING & PERSISTENCE 20 COLLEGE COMPLETION 50% of Maine students graduate college on-time. 8 point gap 47% of Maine students graduate college on-time, compared to 57% across New England. 10 point gap Close the college completion gap with New England 21 COLLEGE COST & DEBT The average net cost of college for Maine students was higher as a percent of per capita income than New England: 40% vs 38% The average net cost of college for Maine students is higher as a percent of per capita income than New England: 39% vs 37%. Maine students will pay annually the same per capita income for college as the New England average Maine students had a higher annual debt burden as a percent of per capita income than New England: 17% vs 14% Maine students have a higher annual debt burden as a percent of per capita income than New England: 17% vs 13% Maine annual student debt burden will be the same as the New England average 37% of Maine students had an associate degree or higher 42% of Maine students have a college degree or credential 44% of Mainers will hold a college degree, certificate, or industry credential 22 MAINERS WITH COLLEGE DEGREES & CREDENTIALS MAINE’S EDUCATION PIPELINE Maine’s future prosperity depends on how well we prepare our people for the jobs of the future. Participation in high-quality early childhood programs, raising proficiency in 1st - 12th grade, graduating high school seniors who are prepared for college and career, and increasing the number of Mainers with postsecondary degrees and credentials are all crucial elements to moving Maine forward. A SNAPSHOT OF EDUCATION IN MAINE PRESCHOOL ENROLLMENT (3- and 4-year-olds) 47% 45% PUBLIC PRE-K ENROLLMENT 58% COLLEGE ENROLLMENT COLLEGE GRADUATION 88 55 31 Of 100 Maine students entering 9th grade, 88 will graduate from high school. HIGH SCHOOL PROFICIENCY 48 % 49 % MAINE LAGS BEHIND THE U.S. AND NEW ENGLAND IN OVERALL PRESCHOOL PARTICIPATION, HOWEVER MAINE UTILIZES PUBLIC PRE-K PROGRAMS AT A FAR HIGHER RATE (36%) THAN THE U.S. (29%) AND NEW ENGLAND AVERAGES (23%). (4-year-olds) HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION of Maine’s 11th graders are proficient in reading. of Maine’s 11th graders are proficient in math. will enroll in a 2- or 4-year college. COLLEGE COST Although Maine’s public university system has the lowest tuition in New England, Maine residents pay more per capita income than the rest of New England. 16,021 $ 20,457 $ will graduate from a 2- or 4-year college. The average annual net cost of college in Maine is 39% of per capita income. The average annual net cost of college in New England is 37% of per capita income. EARLY CHILDHOOD > > > ELEMENTARY SCHOOL > > > > > > MIDDLE SCHOOL > > > > > > > > > > > HIGH SCHOOL > > > >> > > > > > > >> > > > > POSTSECONDARY > > > > > > > > 4TH GRADE PROFICIENCY (NAEP SCORES) READING 36% NEW ENGLAND MATH 41% 45% 4x MAINE MAINE 43% NEW ENGLAND A 3rd grade student who doesn’t read at grade level (as reflected in 4th grade test scores) is four times less likely to graduate from high school than her proficient peers.[1] GRADUATION RATES 8TH GRADE PROFICIENCY (NAEP SCORES) READING 35% NEW ENGLAND MATH 35% 40% 60 MAINE MAINE % 40% 80 80 ME N.E. % % 88% MAINERS WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE, CERTIFICATE, OR INDUSTRY CREDENTIAL >> 44% BY 2019 87% Non-degree credentials added for 2015 NEW ENGLAND Patterns in middle school attendance, misbehavior, and course failure can be used to identify 60% of the students who will not graduate from high school.[2] 2009 ME N.E. 2015 MAINE’S ACHIEVEMENT GAP Maine public school enrollment has shrunk by almost 10% over the last nine years— a decrease of about 20,000 students. Even as the overall number of students has declined, the proportion of economically disadvantaged students in Maine’s classrooms has risen steadily in recent years. For the 2015–2016 school year, almost one in two public school students was economically disadvantaged, compared to about one in three only a decade ago. Economically disadvantaged is defined using the eligibility criteria for the National School Lunch Program, which provides free and reduced-price school meals to children living in households with income at or below 185% of the poverty level. In dollar terms for Maine families, this is $44,955 for a household of four. The statewide figures indicate a broad trend, but the proportion of economically disadvantaged students also varies significantly by region. Ten years ago, only two Maine counties—Piscataquis and Washington—had more than one-half of public school students eligible for subsidized meals. Today, eight counties have eligibility rates above 50%, and six counties are above 60%. Cumberland County’s rate of 35% is the lowest, and Somerset’s rate of 70% of students eligible for free and reduced-price lunch is the highest. The achievement gap refers to the difference in outcomes for economically disadvantaged students and their higher income peers. Family socioeconomic status continues to be one of the strongest predictors of student academic success. Financial hardship, developmental delays, and other factors can pose negative effects on the educational outcomes of economically disadvantaged students. This gap can form early in life and, left unaddressed, can widen and follow a child throughout schooling. As the data in this report demonstrates, the achievement gap manifests itself across Maine’s education pipeline, in preschool enrollment, standardized test scores, graduation rates, college enrollment, and completion. THE ACHIEVEMENT GAP BETWEEN ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED STUDENTS AND THEIR PEERS IS ROUGHLY 40 % H igh quality early childhood education lays the foundation for future success and is a powerful and proven economic investment. Research indicates that for every $1 spent, early learning initiatives provide benefits to society of roughly $8.60.[4] Children who attend high quality preschool are more likely to succeed in school and, in years to come, be gainfully employed and earn more money. They are less likely to need remediation, to enter the criminal justice system, or to need public assistance. If we are serious about achieving the ambitious goals in this report, we need to commit to providing high quality early childhood education to all Maine children. LARGER AMONG STUDENTS BORN IN 2001 THAN THOSE BORN 25 YEARS EARLIER.[3] TOTAL PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT VS PERCENT ELIGIBLE FOR FREE/REDUCED SCHOOL LUNCH Although Maine public school enrollment has shrunk by almost 10% over the last nine years, the share of economically disadvantaged students has steadily increased. 200,0000 195,446 192,244 190,251 188,131 186,556 185,767 184,367 182,990 179,708 100% Students Enrolled 80% 150,0000 35.2% 100,0000 37.3% 42.4% 41.1 % 43.7% 44% 44.8% 46.6% 47.8% 60% 40% 20% 50,0000 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 NOT ELIGIBLE 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 FREE/REDUCED SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE NOTE: In this report, Maine’s achievement gap is presented with economically disadvantaged student data shown in maroon and non-disadvantaged student data shown in bright green. SOURCE: Maine Department of Education Data Warehouse and Neo Dashboard 6 0% This report measures preschool participation and access as indicators of the state of early childhood education in Maine. The data shows that Maine needs to increase the number of children participating in high quality programs that prepare them to succeed in first grade and beyond. In order for this to happen, we need affordable, accessible preschool options in all Maine communities. This is best achieved through the public school system. Progress has been made in increasing access through a law requiring universal public Pre-K by the 2017/18 school year (Public Law Chapter 581, 126th Legislature). We now must focus on securing and maintaining funding to support this critical expansion. Increasing access is the first step in a commitment to early childhood education, but the positive effects of early learning initiatives depend on their quality and attendance. Quality preschool programs provide a safe and nurturing environment while promoting the physical, social, emotional, and intellectual development of young children. We need to ensure preschool teachers and programs have the support and resources necessary to succeed in this pursuit. We also need to increase outreach to families, so that they understand the importance of education in these early years. PRESCHOOL PARTICIPATION More than two out of every five Maine Children (45%) ages 3 and 4 are enrolled in either a public or private preschool program. This is just below the U.S. average (47%) and is 13 points lower than the New England average (58%). Maine 3- and 4-year-olds attend preschool at a rate 6 percentage points higher than 10 years ago. Over the same period, the rate of preschool participation in New England increased by 3 percentage points and nationwide by only 1 point. In 2015, 36% of Maine 4-year-olds enrolled in public Pre-K. This represents significant progress. Less than 10 years ago only 16% of Maine 4-year-olds enrolled in these public programs. Maine 4-year-olds attend public Pre-K at a greater rate than New England (23%) and the Nation (29%). Preschool participation rates across family income levels show that Maine’s achievement gap starts early in life. Children living in a family earning less than 200% of the federal poverty level enroll in preschool at a rate 12 points lower than children from higher-income families. This is particularly troubling considering economically disadvantaged children benefit the most from early educational intervention. Excluded from these statistics are children receiving “informal care” by friends, parents, or neighbors. Providing resources and training to these informal settings (serving an estimated 33–55% of children under age 5 with working parents) can improve the overall quality of early education.[5] WHERE WE ARE 2019 GOALS 50% OF 3- & 4-YEAR-OLDS WILL BE ENROLLED IN A PUBLIC OR PRIVATE PRESCHOOL BY 2019 64% OF 4-YEAR-OLDS WILL BE ENROLLED IN PUBLIC PRE-K BY 2019 PRESCHOOL ENROLLMENT 3- AND 4-YEAR-OLDS, PUBLIC AND PRIVATE Total preschool enrollment 2015 45 58 Maine % New England % 36 35 % 34 32 % % % 19 18 Despite this important legislation, funding challenges will hinder progress towards the expansion of public Pre-K. While state funding is available to support classrooms once they are up and running, start-up costs are not covered by the state. Start-up costs can be significant, as much as $500,000 in larger districts. If we are serious about expanding access, we need to ensure that districts have the resources they need to open their doors to Pre-K students. Improving access to early childhood education is critical to improving participation. We cannot expect participation to increase if access is limited due to available seats or cost. With expanded public access, we can expect that more families that utilize the public education system will enroll their children and participation will continue to increase. WHERE WE ARE 2019 GOALS 72% (DISTRICTS OFFERING PUBLIC PRE-K) of higher income Maine children are enrolled in preschool FULL-TIME EARLY EDUCATION FROM BIRTH TO KINDERGARTEN WOULD INCREASE THE HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE FOR CHILDREN FROM LOW-INCOME FAMILIES TO[7] 90 % MAINE WILL OFFER CONSISTENT AND QUALITY PUBLIC PRE-K PROGRAMMING TO 100% OF MAINE 4-YEAR-OLDS BY 2019 PROPORTION OF MAINE SCHOOL DISTRICTS OFFERING A PUBLIC PRE-K PROGRAM 48 % % Public Pre-K is currently available in 72% of Maine’s school districts. By the 2017/18 school year, universal voluntary public Pre-K is required by law (Public Law Chapter 581, 126th Legislature). Maine is a geographically large and rural state with almost half of the children ages 3 and 4 from low-income backgrounds. High-quality public preschool is therefore a critical priority as we continue to address the achievement gap across the education pipeline. This law will move Maine closer to the goal of 100% Pre-K access in all school districts. % 4-YEAR-OLDS ENROLLED IN PUBLIC PRE-K IN MAINE 24 27 CHILDREN FROM ALL SOCIOECONOMIC BACKGROUNDS REAP THE LONG-TERM BENEFITS OF QUALITY PRESCHOOL.[6] % 45% (3- AND 4-YEAR-OLDS ENROLLED IN PUBLIC OR PRIVATE PRESCHOOL) 36% (4-YEAR-OLDS ENROLLED IN PUBLIC PRE-K) % PUBLIC PRESCHOOL ACCESS % 72 63 65 % % 47 40% 44 % % 24% 24% 36 % of lower income Maine children 2008 8 2009 2010 2011 2012 SOURCE: National Institute for Early Education Research, http://nieer.org/research/state-preschool-2015-state-profiles 2013 2014 2015 SOURCE: Kids Count Data Center, Annie E. Casey Foundation, http://www.datacenter.kidscount.org 2007-08 2008-09 SOURCE: Maine Department of Education 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 9 FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN In Maine, 92% of school districts offer full-day kindergarten. While this figure represents a significant increase from 51% in 2002, Maine currently trails full-day kindergarten rates across New England (96%). The transition to full-day kindergarten is an important evolution in our educational system as it seeks to anticipate the needs of our modern workforce. All students in kindergarten—regardless if they are in a half- or full-day program—are expected to master the same standards. We cannot hold students to high standards if we do not provide them an equitable start. Full-day kindergarten is a critical component of the early childhood continuum as it allows students to build upon the foundation provided by high quality early learning programs and to better prepare for elementary school. Children who attend full-day kindergarten have greater reading and mathematics achievement gains than those in half-day classes. Kindergarten is also a critical time to identify and address learning challenges—saving resources in the long-term and increasing the odds that children will be successful in school. Together, quality preschool programs and full-day kindergarten increase academic achievement and work to close Maine’s enduring achievement gap. WHERE WE ARE 92% OF DISTRICTS 100% OF MAINE SCHOOL DISTRICTS WILL OFFER FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN BY 2019 2019 GOALS FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN IN MAINE VS NEW ENGLAND (2015) 92 % of Maine School districts offered full-day kindergarten in 2015. This is an increase from just 51% in 2002. MAINE 92 DISTRICTS WITH FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN * not including Connecticut SOURCE: State Department of Education websites 10 NEW ENGLAND* 96 DISTRICTS WITHOUT FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN BY AGE 5, A TYPICAL MIDDLE CLASS CHILD RECOGNIZES 22 9 LETTERS OF THE ALPHABET, COMPARED TO FOR A CHILD FROM A LOWINCOME FAMILY.[8] T he years spent in 1st to 12th grade mark an important developmental time in students’ lives. Students begin to use the foundation they built in the early years to expand their learning. The third grade marks a time in life when students begin to transition from “learning to read” to “reading to learn.” Those who participate in high quality early education settings and experience regular, positive interaction with adults and other children, come better prepared than those who do not. They use these school years to build their knowledge in key content areas as well as in critical skills such as problem solving and teamwork that will prepare them to succeed in postsecondary educational pursuits and find a rewarding career. Maine educators work hard to see that students graduate high school prepared to succeed in life. Maine has one of the highest high school graduation rates in the country – a point of pride – but too many of those students aren’t moving on to the next stage with all of the skills and knowledge necessary to succeed. This makes education and career pursuits difficult and limits opportunities. Maine is committed to addressing this issue by ensuring that all children have an opportunity to gain the skills and experiences they need in life, regardless of where they live in the state. Maine has committed to moving to a proficiency-based learning system that uses rigorous standards and encourages educators to provide different learners with multiple pathways to demonstrate their competencies. All students (by law) will graduate with a diploma that demonstrates their proficiency and mastery of key standards and principles. This measurable, student-centered approach moves us toward a more equitable system where every Maine student can succeed. The following sections measure student outcomes (proficiency) in reading and math and ultimately their ability to complete their secondary educational pursuits. Again, we see a difference in success for economically disadvantaged students as the achievement gap follows students throughout their school years. On the pages that follow, the report will first address indicator status generally and then illustrate the achievement gaps that exist between our students from low- versus higher-income families. 4TH GRADE (ACHIEVEMENT GAP) Fourth grade testing provides the first quantitative measure of how well we are preparing our students for academic and vocational success. Students who do not read proficiently by the 3rd grade (reflected in 4th grade scores) are four times more likely to drop out than proficient readers.[9] The 4th and 8th grade achievement indicators are based on National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) data. Thirty-six percent of Maine students in 4th grade were reading at a proficient or better level in 2015. This marks no movement in this statistic sine 2007. In 2007 Maine trailed the New England average by five points, but the gap has since grown to seven points. Forty-one percent of Maine students in 4th grade tested proficient or better in math. This represents a break in the upward momentum of the past 10 years, and is four points below the New England average of 45% (which also fell). WHERE WE ARE 2019 GOALS 36% (READING) 41% (MATH) 44% OF MAINE 4TH GRADERS WILL DEMONSTRATE READING PROFICIENCY AND 54% WILL DEMONSTRATE MATH PROFICIENCY BY 2019 4TH GRADE READING PROFICIENCY (NAEP SCORES) READING 41% 41% 41% 35% 32% 43% 42% 37% 36% MATH 12 THE RATE OF THEIR PROFICIENT PEERS.[10] Improving proficiency for all students while also addressing the achievement gap needs to be a focus across the education pipeline. Interventions in early childhood and in the early elementary grades will set all students up for success in 4th grade and beyond and work to close the achievement gap. 4TH GRADE READING ACHIEVEMENT GAP (NAEP SCORES) 25 28 45% 48% 45% 21% 20% 2007 READING ACHIEVEMENT GAP 24% 20% 2009 48% 43% 2011 23% 2013 SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE 2015 NOT ELIGIBLE SINCE 2007 MAINE’S 4TH GRADE READING ACHIEVEMENT GAP HAS REMAINED THE SAME AT 25 POINTS AND THE 4TH GRADE MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAP HAS GROWN FROM 24 POINTS TO 28 POINTS. 4TH GRADE MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAP (NAEP SCORES) 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 36% of Maine students were at or above proficiency in reading in 2015 MAINE NEW ENGLAND 4TH GRADE MATH PROFICIENCY (NAEP SCORES) % 4X Economically disadvantaged students are less likely to demonstrate academic proficiency than their higher income peers. In 4th grade, this achievement gap is 25 points in reading and 28 points in math. Put another way, approximately half of the students from higher income backgrounds are proficient in reading and in math, compared to only a quarter of economically disadvantaged students. These are large achievement gaps that have not improved since 2007. 42% 47% 45% 49% 45% 51% 47% 50% 41% 45% MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAP 27% 31% 2007 2009 61% 57% 54% 51% POINTS 36 41 % 36% ONE IN SIX CHILDREN WHO ARE NOT READING PROFICIENTLY IN THIRD GRADE FAIL TO GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL ON TIME AT POINTS 4TH GRADE ACHIEVEMENT 31% 2011 SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE 55% 32% 2013 27% 2015 NOT ELIGIBLE SOURCE: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 41% of Maine students were at or above proficiency in math in 2015 SOURCE: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard MAINE NEW ENGLAND 13 8TH GRADE (ACHIEVEMENT GAP) Middle school marks an important transition in our education system. Performance through 8th grade is a strong indicator of how a student will perform in high school and beyond. Across Maine, 35% of 8th graders scored proficient or higher in reading and in math in 2015. Forty percent of 8th graders in New England scored proficient or better in reading and math. Maine’s 2015 8th grade NAEP scores reversed the trend of stable reading proficiency and increasing math proficiency over the last 10 years. This downturn is a concern, and the performance of our 8th graders needs to improve. WHERE WE ARE 2019 GOALS 35% (READING) 35% (MATH) 45% OF MAINE 8TH GRADERS WILL DEMONSTRATE READING PROFICIENCY AND 47% WILL DEMONSTRATE MATH PROFICIENCY BY 2019 8TH GRADE READING PROFICIENCY (NAEP SCORES) READING 35% 2007 38% 2009 39% 41% 2011 38% 43% 35% 2013 40% 2015 35% of Maine students were at or above proficiency in reading in 2015 MAINE 35 % MATH 34% 35% 2007 40% 2009 39% 42% 2011 40% 43% 2013 35% 40% 2015 35% of Maine students were at or above proficiency in math in 2015 MAINE Comparing 4th to 8th grade, the achievement gaps decrease slightly by 8th grade, from 25 to 20 points in reading and 28 to 22 points in math. Still, a wide margin endures that will carry into high school. 8TH GRADE READING ACHIEVEMENT GAP (NAEP SCORES) 20 22 49% 42% 46% 41% 44% 28% 26% 24% 23% 2007 READING ACHIEVEMENT GAP 2009 24% 2011 2013 SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE 2015 NOT ELIGIBLE SINCE 2007, MAINE’S 8TH GRADE READING AND MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAPS HAVE GROWN. THE READING ACHIEVEMENT GAP INCREASED BY 4 POINTS, AND THE MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAP BY 3 POINTS. 8TH GRADE MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAP (NAEP SCORES) NEW ENGLAND 8TH GRADE MATH PROFICIENCY (NAEP SCORES) 38% Focusing on statewide achievement alone masks the stark achievement gap between economically disadvantaged students and their higher income peers. While 35% of Maine 8th graders are proficient in reading and 35% in math, only 24% (Reading) and 23% (Math) of economically disadvantaged students scored proficient or better. In contrast, their higher income peers almost met the indicator goal, with 44% (Reading) and 45% (Math) scoring proficient or better. POINTS 35 % 37% 37% RESEARCH INDICATES THAT 8TH GRADE ACHIEVEMENT IS ONE OF THE STRONGEST PREDICTORS OF COLLEGEAND WORKREADINESS.[11] POINTS 8TH GRADE ACHIEVEMENT MATH ACHIEVEMENT GAP 44% 40% 21% 25% 19% 2007 2009 51% 49% 2011 SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE 45% 24% 2013 23% 2015 NOT ELIGIBLE SOURCE: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard NEW ENGLAND SOURCE: National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), http://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard 14 15 HIGH SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT Eighty-eight percent of Maine high school seniors graduated in 2015. Economically disadvantaged students are graduating at a lower rate than their higher income peers. This is an improvement from 85% in 2012. Maine graduation rates top the New England average (87%). [12] Over the last two years, Maine’s state assessment program moved from the New England Common Assessment Program (NECAP) for Grades 3-8 and the SAT for high school to a new assessment, Smarter Balance. In the spring of 2016, Maine changed its statewide testing once again, reinstating the SAT and designing and administering a new Maine Educational Assessment (MEA). These changes cause a break in the analysis of trends in student performance. In essence, with these changes at the state level, Educate Maine and its Indicators Report will be starting a new baseline of performance once the new MEA scores are available. Maine continues to have a strong high school graduation rate when compared to its New England and national counterparts. As the state transitions to awarding proficiency-based diplomas across eight content areas, student preparation for postsecondary learning and work will rise and the achievement gap will decrease. 11TH GRADE PROFICIENCY IN MAINE, 2014 (% OF STUDENTS AT OR ABOVE PROFICIENT) 49 57% % MATH 32% 48 % 55% HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATES 2012 16 2014 2015 90 WOULD RESULT IN $15 MILLION MORE IN ANNUAL EARNINGS AND MILLION MORE IN STATE AND LOCAL TAX REVENUES.[13] MAINE'S ACHIEVEMENT GAP 76 77 78 76 93 94 95 93 % % % % % % % % 32% READING MAINE MAINE 2013 % $ 90% OF MAINE STUDENTS WILL GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL BY 2019 70% OF MAINE STUDENTS IN GRADE ELEVEN WILL BE PROFICIENT IN READING AND MATH BY 2019 2019 GOALS INCREASING MAINE’S HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE TO 2.5 88% GRADUATE FROM HIGH SCHOOL, 48% PROFICIENT IN READING, 49% PROFICIENT IN MATH WHERE WE ARE HIGH SCHOOL ACHIEVEMENT SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE NOT ELIGIBLE NEW ENGLAND SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE NOT ELIGIBLE SOURCE: Maine Department of Education Data Warehouse 17 POSTSECONDARY B y 2018, the demand for college-educated workers in Maine is projected to be seven times greater than for high school graduates. [14] Moreover, the overwhelming majority of high-growth jobs will require education beyond high school.[15] This ranges from military service to technical training to a college degree. The Maine economy needs all of these options. Maine workers benefit as well. Every increase in educational attainment comes with higher lifetime earnings.[16] COLLEGE-GOING & PERSISTENCE College-going and persistence rates have been relatively stable over the past 10 years and continue to fall short of our goals. Across college-going and persistence rates the achievement gap endures, further underlining the importance of supporting economically disadvantaged students throughout the education pipeline. Approximately 6 out of 10 Maine students enter college in the fall immediately following high school graduation. This shows little improvement from 2009 when only 57% of students enrolled directly in college. Only 46% of economically disadvantaged students enroll in college in the year after high school, compared to 68% of their higher income peers. Maine’s population is aging. As a large segment of the workforce reaches retirement age, Maine does not have enough people to fill those employment gaps or meet new needs. This is a concern across industries and can stand in the way of economic growth. We need to look to traditional college-age students as well as adults already in the workforce to reverse this trend. Through the increased completion of college degrees and acquisition of professional credentials Maine’s workforce can meet the needs of our state’s economy. After their first year, 83% of Maine students persist towards a college degree. Economically disadvantaged students persist at a rate of 74% and higher income students at a rate of 88%. Postsecondary education is a considerable financial investment. Ensuring that students persist through college to realize this investment is a critical priority, especially for economically disadvantaged students. Mainers experience a “funnel effect” in secondary and postsecondary education, with students lost at each successive level, from graduating high school through completing a college degree. For every 100 ninth graders entering a Maine high school, at current rates 88 complete high school in four years, 55 will enroll in college, 46 will continue to the second year of college, and 31 will earn a college degree within six years after high school graduation. Among economically disadvantaged students, the funnel is much steeper, and only 14 entering 9th graders will complete a college degree within ten years, compared with 38 of their higher income peers. WHERE WE ARE 2019 GOALS COLLEGE-GOING 62%, COLLEGE PERSISTENCE 83% 66% OF MAINE STUDENTS WILL ENROLL IN COLLEGE WITHIN ONE YEAR OF GRADUATING FROM HIGH SCHOOL BY 2019, 88% OF MAINE FIRST-YEAR STUDENTS WILL RETURN FOR A SECOND YEAR OF COLLEGE BY 2019 THE NUMBER OF ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED MAINE HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES ENROLLING IN COLLEGE NEARLY DOUBLED BETWEEN 2008 AND 2014, FROM 1,385 TO 2,748 STUDENTS.[17] MAINE: COLLEGE ENROLLMENT IN THE FALL AFTER HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION THE MAINE EDUCATION FUNNEL EFFECT AND ACHIEVEMENT GAPS 18 ENTERING 9TH GRADERS 100 100 100 HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES 76 88 93 ENROLL IN COLLEGE 35 55 63 RETURN FOR A 2ND YEAR OF COLLEGE 26 46 54 EARN A 2- OR 4-YEAR DEGREE 14 31 38 The following sections look at measures of aspiration, persistence, access, and completion. This is where all prior educational investments come to bear. MAINE SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE NOT ELIGIBLE MAINE: FIRST TO SECOND YEAR COLLEGE PERSISTENCE SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE NOT ELIGIBLE ALL MAINE STUDENTS SOURCE: Maine Department of Education; National Student Clearinghouse MAINE SCHOOL LUNCH ELIGIBLE NOT ELIGIBLE 19 COLLEGE COST & DEBT Maine’s achievement gap continues into college. Among Mainers entering four-year colleges and universities, there is a completion gap of 16 points—higher than the national gap of 14 points—among students who receive Pell grants, federal grants for economically disadvantaged students, and those who do not qualify. Thirty-six percent of Pell students who started at a Maine institution in 2007 earned a degree by 2013, compared with 52% of students with higher incomes.[18] WHERE WE ARE 2019 GOALS MAINE 47%, NEW ENGLAND 57% CLOSE THE COLLEGE COMPLETION GAP WITH NEW ENGLAND BY 2019 COLLEGE COMPLETION RATES: MAINE VS NEW ENGLAND 60% 50 % 40% 58% 58% 59% 58% 58% 58% 59% 57% 52% 50% 50% 50% 50% 49% 48% 47% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2007 MAINE NEW ENGLAND The actual cost of college to families (the net price) is the most important measure of college cost and affordability, but it requires context. Although the average net cost at two- and four-year-degree granting colleges and universities in Maine is $4,000 less than the New England average, it is higher as a share of income. In 2013-14 the average net cost of college was 39% of Maine per capita income, compared to 37% across New England. While this gap has decreased, we need to ensure that college is just as affordable for Maine students as it is for our New England neighbors. Most students and families need to borrow money to pay for college. Again, the average debt burden of a Maine student needs to be place in context of annual income. Maine students on average borrow $400 less per year than the New England average, but this represents a greater share of per-capita income for Maine students (17%) than New England students (13%). This gap has persisted for several years. If we want to increase college-going, persistence, and completion, we need to manage cost and debt burdens. It is not enough to keep tuition prices low; we also need to address the income side of the equation by supporting a labor market that provides comparable wages and income growth over time. WHERE WE ARE MAINERS SPEND 2 PERCENTAGE POINTS MORE OF THEIR PER CAPITA INCOME FOR COLLEGE THAN THE NEW ENGLAND AVERAGE. MAINE ANNUAL STUDENT DEBT BURDEN IS 4 PERCENTAGE POINTS HIGHER THAN THE NEW ENGLAND AVERAGE. 2019 GOALS MAINE STUDENTS WILL PAY ANNUALLY THE SAME SHARE OF PER CAPITA INCOME FOR COLLEGE AS NEW ENGLAND BY 2019. MAINE ANNUAL STUDENT DEBT BURDEN WILL BE THE SAME AS THE NEW ENGLAND AVERAGE BY 2019. COLLEGE COST IN MAINE VS NEW ENGLAND (2013-2014) SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), National Center for Education Statistics Maine AVERAGE ANNUAL STUDENT LOAN 20 $16,021 $6,966 Maine $20,457 New England $7,394 New England AVERAGE NET PRICE AS A PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL INCOME College completion rates at Maine’s community colleges are decreasing—from 29% in 2007 to 22% in 2014—yet remain well above the New England average of 17%. Maine’s public university completion rate (48%) trails New England’s significantly (65%). Private college completion in Maine is 70%, compared to 74% across New England. STUDENTS WHO DO NOT GRADUATE FROM COLLEGE ARE THREE TIMES AS LIKELY TO DEFAULT ON THEIR LOANS.[19] AVERAGE STUDENT LOAN AS A PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL INCOME Just under half (47%) of first-time Maine college students will graduate (in 150% of normal time from the same institution). Maine college completion rates have been decreasing—from 52% in 2007 to 47% in 2014. New England rates remain relatively stable around 57%. AVERAGE NET PRICE COLLEGE COMPLETION SOURCE: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), National Center for Education Statistics [20] 39 37 Maine New England 17 13 Maine New England MAINE RANKS TH 6 HIGHEST IN THE NATION IN AVERAGE STUDENT DEBT ($30,908) AND 8TH HIGHEST IN PROPORTION OF GRADUATES WITH DEBT (68%) AMONG STATE RESIDENTS WHO COMPLETED BACHELOR’S DEGREES IN 2015.[21] 21 MAINERS WITH COLLEGE DEGREES & CREDENTIALS Educate Maine’s principal goal is that 44% of Mainers age 25 or older will possess a college degree, certificate or industry credential by 2019. To meet current and future workforce needs, most Mainers will need to complete some form of postsecondary training - whether two-year, four-year, or advanced college degrees, or professional credentials and certificates that can be earned in educational settings and on the job and hold value in the labor market. While annual state-level estimates from the U.S. Census track adults with college degrees, they do not tell us about professional credentials or certificates. Estimates published in 2016 suggest that 2% of working-age Mainers hold a high-quality certificate as their highest earned credential. Maine falls below the New England average of 3.3% and the national average of 4.9%.[22] The percentage of Mainers holding college degrees alone has increased from 35% in 2005 to 40% in 2015. Maine is below the 2015 average of 46% in New England, but is just above the 39% U.S. average. College degree attainment has grown slightly faster in Maine than in New England and the nation over the past decade.[23] Adding the 2% of Mainers with a certificate but no degree brings us to 42% of adults holding a high-quality certificate or degree in 2015. With the continued support of these credential-granting institutions and learners of all ages, Maine is on track to meet our 44% goal by 2019. WHERE WE ARE MAINERS WITH COLLEGE DEGREES AND CREDENTIALS: MAINE (42%), NEW ENGLAND (50%) 43 43 44 37 % 42 43 35% 34% 36 34% 36 36 37 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 42 % 40 43 45% % % % % 45% 46% 38% 39% % 20% % % % MAINE * Adults ages 25 and older SOURCES: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates; Lumina Foundation 22 % We each have a role to play in improving Maine’s education pipeline. Together we can prepare Maine’s students and adult learners for success and positively impact Maine’s future prosperity. Families ✓Get your child to school on time every day, ready to learn. ✓Know what it takes to help your child learn, understand academic requirements and help your child reach them. ✓Support teacher professional development. Non-degree credentials added for 2015 % OF THE 237,000 PROJECTED JOB OPENINGS IN MAINE WILL REQUIRE POSTSECONDARY EDUCATION BEYOND HIGH SCHOOL.[24] WHAT YOU CAN DO: takes challenging courses in English, math and science. MAINERS WITH A COLLEGE DEGREE, CERTIFICATE, OR INDUSTRY CREDENTIAL 60% 66 % TAKE ACTION! ✓Make sure your child 44% OF MAINERS WILL HOLD A COLLEGE DEGREE, CERTIFICATE, OR INDUSTRY CREDENTIAL BY 2019 2019 GOALS BY 2020, TWO-THIRDS % 2012 NEW ENGLAND 2013 2014 50% ✓If you believe your child needs extra help, ask for it. 42% 2015 ✓Get involved by communicating with teachers, participating in school events, and attending school board meetings. Educators Business ✓Commit to ongoing communication with students and parents about each student’s academic progress. ✓Implement a variety of support systems and instructional practices that will ensure the success of students. ✓Use data to inform instructional practices. ✓Offer rigorous classes. ✓Advocate for professional development. ✓Encourage your employees to get involved in their child’s education by attending parent teacher conferences, volunteering in schools, mentoring, etc. ✓Encourage your employees to continue their education. ✓Offer tuition reimbursement. ✓Offer paid internships to students. ✓Share your hiring criteria with students, parents and educators —explain what you are looking for in terms of knowledge, skills, and attitudes. ✓Support professional development for educators. Elected Officials ✓Work with your colleagues to positively impact the ten indicators highlighted in this report. ✓Visit a school and a classroom and find out what educators in your area need most in order to improve student performance. ✓Support programs, rules and/or laws that increase participation in and make more accessible high quality early childhood programs. Community ✓Engender a culture of high academic expectations from your schools, district administration, faculty and students. ✓Visit schools, talk with teachers and students, attend school board and town budget meetings. ✓Become a student mentor. ✓Be informed about what is needed for students and schools to be successful in today’s economy. ✓Support professional development for educators. EDUCATE MAINE is a business-led education advocacy organization championing college and career readiness, and increased education attainment. Educate Maine believes that education is the catalyst and foundation for individual success, engaged citizenship, and sustainable economic growth; and that all Maine people should have equal access to high quality educational opportunities. OFFICERS Christopher Hall Chair CEO and President Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce, Portland STAFF Paul Bolin Vice President HR, East Region Eastern Maine Healthcare System, Brewer Laurie Lachance President Thomas College, Waterville Ed Cervone Executive Director CITATIONS [1] Anne E. Casey Foundation (2010), www.aecf.org/resources/double-jeopardy [2] Educational Psychologist (2007), http://new.every1graduates.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ Jason Judd Program Director preventing_student_disengagement.pdf [3] Stanford Center for Education Policy Analysis (2012), http://cepa.stanford.edu/content/widening-academic-achievement-gap-between- Amanda Petersen Office Manager for Children in Poverty (2008), http://www.nccp.org/publications/pub_835 [6] National Institute for Early Education Research (2008), http://nieer.org/resources/research/Preschool- Dolly Sullivan Program Director our-work/school-readiness [9] Anne E. Casey Foundation (2010), www.aecf.org/resources/double-jeopardy [10] Anne E. Casey Foundation (2010), www.aecf.org/resources/double- Susan Corbett Owner & CEO Axiom Technologies, Machias Deanna Sherman President & CEO Dead River Company, Bangor Jennifer Dorman 2015 Maine Teacher of the Year Skowhegan Area Middle School, Skowhegan E. William Stockmeyer Attorney Drummond Woodsum & MacMahon, Portland Michael Dubyak Chairman WEX, Inc., South Portland Dr. Betsy Webb Superintendent Bangor School System, Bangor Ken Grady Vice President & CIO IDEXX, Westbrook Bill Williamson Market President Bank of America, Portland ment of Labor (2012), http://www.maine.gov/labor/cwri/publications/pdf/Maine_Workforce_Outlook_2012_to_2022.pdf [16] Maine Economic Growth Council (2015), http://www.mdf. J. Duke Albanese Senior Policy Advisor Great Schools Partnership, Portland Clif Greim President & CEO Harriman and Associates, Lewiston Kelly Winslow Vice President, Mid Maine Regional Market Manager Bangor Savings Bank, Bangor fact-sheet-focusing-higher-education-student-success [20] https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/datacenter, Average net price for full-time, first-time degree/certificate-seeking undergraduate Ron Bancroft President Bancroft and Company, Cumberland Dr. Richard Hopper President Kennebec Valley Community College, Fairfield Shawn Yardley CEO Community Concepts, Lewiston estimates, Table B15002 [24] Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce (2013), https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/StateProjections_6.1.15_agc_v2.pdf Michael Bennett Vice President Cianbro, Pittsfield Dana Humphrey Dean of Engineering University of Maine, Orono Cari Medd Vice Chair Principal Poland Regional High School, Poland Vicki Gordan Treasurer Chief Internal Auditor and Senior Vice President UNUM, Portland Christopher Emmons Secretary President & CEO Gorham Savings Bank, Gorham BOARD OF DIRECTORS rich-and-poor [4] Executive Office of the President of the United States (2014), https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/early_childhood_report1.pdf [5] National Center LastingEffects.pdf [7] Philip Trostel (2013), http://melig.org/pdfs/Path_to_a_Better_Future_Full_Report.pdf [8] The Campaign for Grade-Level Reading, http://gradelevelreading.net/ jeopardy [11] ACT (2008), https://forms.act.org/research/policymakers/pdf/ForgottenMiddle.pdf [12] Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont high school graduation statistics gathered from those states’ Department of Education websites [13] Alliance for Excellence in Education (2015), http://impact.all4ed.org/wp-content/ uploads/2015/09/ME_2015.pdf [14] Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (2010), https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/help-wanted [15] Maine Departorg/publications/Measures-of-Growth-2015/820/ [17] Mitchell Institute (2015), http://mitchellinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/MaineCollegeGoing2015.pdf [18] Education Trust (2015), https://edtrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/ThePellPartnership_EdTrust_20152.pdf. [19] US Department of Education (2015), http://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/ students and Average amount of student loan aid received by full-time first-time undergraduates [21] The Institute for College Access and Success (2015), http://ticas.org/posd/mapstate-data-2015 [22] Lumina Foundation (2016), http://strongernation.luminafoundation.org/report/2016/#maine [23] U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey one-year For more information visit indicators.educatemaine.org 4 82 C O N G R E S S ST R E E T, S U I T E 3 03 P O RT L A N D, M E 04101 207-3 47-8638 E D U C AT E M A I N E .O R G © E D U C AT E M A I N E 2 0 1 6