Panland Press Herald Poll #6
Maine 1016 General Election

Conducted by the UNH Survey Center
October 2016

Technical Report

Field Periad October 20 to October 25, 2015
Haurs: 9 am. to 9 pm.
Median Completion Time: 13 minutes

Sample Site: 751 randomly selected Maine adults (RDD)
670 randomly selected Maine likely or early voters in the 2016 General Election (Rum

Sampling Errar: 3.6% iall respondents)
3.8% ilikely voters)

Congressional Subsections:
329 likely voters in the 1" Congressional District 15.1wn MOE)
341 likely voters in the 2"6 Congressional District (53% MOE)

Response Rate (AAPOR an): 16%

These findings are based on the latest Portland Press Herald Poll, conducted by the University of New
Hampshire Survey Center and funded by the Port/and Press Herald. Seven hundred and seventy (670) randomly
selected Maine adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellulartelephone between October 20 and
October 25, 2015. If a household included more than one adult, the adult who had the most recent binhday was
selected to be interviewed. These have not been adjusted for design effect. The design effect for the
survey is 

 

1ft

US President - Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein With Leaners
Trump

Clinton

Johnson

Stein

Other

Undecided

(N)

37%

48%

5%

3%

3%

3%

646

Registered Democrat

9%

85%

1%

3%

1%

1%

228

Registered Unenrolled/Other

35%

41%

8%

4%

7%

5%

232

Registered Republican

76%

12%

7%

1%

1%

3%

183

Democrat

5%

87%

2%

3%

1%

1%

288

Independent

34%

33%

13%

6%

6%

8%

124

Republican

79%

8%

4%

1%

4%

4%

220

Voted Early

24%

70%

6%

0%

Will Definitely Vote

39%

47%

4%

3%

3%

3%

522

Will Vote Unless Emergency

32%

31%

16%

5%

7%

9%

41

Definitely Decided

40%

53%

4%

1%

1%

0%

405

Leaning Towards Someone

40%

40%

8%

6%

5%

1%

71

Still Trying To Decide

30%

14%

10%

11%

14%

22%

Extremely Interested in Election

38%

54%

4%

2%

2%

Very Interested

38%

45%

6%

3%

2%

5%

203

Some/Little Interest

33%

39%

7%

3%

8%

10%

112

Gun Owner

49%

34%

6%

3%

3%

4%

347

Non-Gun Owner

19%

69%

4%

2%

3%

2%

275

18 to 34

33%

46%

11%

5%

4%

1%

137

35 to 49

36%

43%

8%

3%

5%

6%

162

50 to 64

42%

49%

1%

3%

3%

3%

197

65 and older

34%

58%

2%

1%

1%

3%

140

Male

46%

39%

6%

5%

3%

1%

308

Female

29%

57%

4%

1%

3%

5%

338

High school or less

58%

26%

8%

2%

4%

2%

142

Technical school/Some college

41%

45%

3%

5%

5%

1%

143

College graduate

34%

48%

6%

2%

3%

7%

219

Postgraduate work

14%

79%

2%

2%

2%

1%

134

Once a week or more often

47%

36%

6%

1%

4%

6%

106

Once or twice a month

49%

37%

4%

5%

5%

61

Few times a year

39%

48%

4%

4%

1%

3%

185

Never

29%

57%

5%

3%

4%

3%

276

Less than $30,000

35%

41%

8%

5%

7%

4%

70

$30,000 to $59,999

44%

40%

5%

2%

4%

5%

133

$60,000 to $99,999

32%

57%

4%

3%

2%

2%

133

$100,000 or more

38%

50%

6%

1%

2%

3%

143

10 years or less

27%

62%

5%

4%

11 to 20 years

25%

60%

8%

4%

3%

21 to 30 years

33%

49%

8%

2%

5%

4%

142

More than 30 years

44%

43%

3%

3%

3%

4%

337

Central Maine

43%

43%

9%

2%

2%

2%

146

Downeast/Coastal Maine

29%

52%

9%

5%

4%

1%

117

Northern Maine

44%

39%

3%

5%

5%

4%

153

Southern Maine

33%

56%

2%

1%

3%

4%

230

First Cong. Dist

34%

54%

4%

1%

3%

4%

317

Second Cong. Dist

40%

43%

6%

4%

3%

3%

329

Maine Likely Voters

82

87
328

2%

54
107

52

 US President - Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein With Leaners (CD1 Only)
Trump

Clinton

Johnson

Stein

Other

Undecided

(N)

34%

54%

4%

1%

3%

4%

317

Registered Democrat

7%

89%

1%

2%

1%

1%

116

Registered Unenrolled/Other

34%

44%

6%

2%

7%

6%

131

Registered Republican

78%

13%

5%

Democrat

5%

90%

1%

2%

Independent

33%

37%

12%

Republican

80%

9%

3%

Voted Early

21%

74%

5%

Will Definitely Vote

37%

52%

Will Vote Unless Emergency

26%

Definitely Decided

36%

Leaning Towards Someone

Maine First District Likely Voters

4%

68

2%

1%

156

2%

8%

8%

60

1%

1%

6%

92

3%

2%

3%

4%

248

40%

10%

3%

12%

10%

23

60%

2%

1%

1%

194

46%

40%

5%

6%

3%

Still Trying To Decide

25%

18%

8%

6%

16%

Extremely Interested in Election

33%

62%

3%

1%

2%

Very Interested

38%

45%

5%

3%

4%

6%

Some/Little Interest

28%

46%

5%

6%

14%

54

Gun Owner

45%

40%

3%

2%

3%

6%

142

Non-Gun Owner

20%

69%

4%

1%

3%

3%

160

18 to 34

31%

55%

4%

3%

5%

2%

81

35 to 49

32%

48%

8%

4%

8%

68

50 to 64

37%

54%

2%

2%

2%

3%

94

65 and older

33%

61%

1%

1%

1%

4%

67

Male

42%

44%

5%

2%

4%

3%

155

Female

25%

63%

3%

1%

3%

6%

163

High school or less

56%

30%

7%

1%

3%

3%

54

Technical school/Some college

46%

41%

4%

6%

3%

69

College graduate

28%

57%

6%

1%

2%

7%

123

Postgraduate work

10%

85%

1%

4%

Once a week or more often

48%

33%

7%

3%

10%

45

Once or twice a month

48%

36%

5%

5%

6%

26

Few times a year

35%

56%

2%

4%

1%

4%

98

Never

24%

65%

3%

1%

4%

3%

139

Less than $30,000

29%

45%

11%

3%

10%

2%

26

$30,000 to $59,999

41%

45%

2%

2%

5%

6%

61

$60,000 to $99,999

33%

62%

2%

1%

3%

74

$100,000 or more

32%

56%

5%

2%

3%

78

10 years or less

27%

63%

5%

5%

24

11 to 20 years

22%

64%

8%

2%

4%

21 to 30 years

28%

58%

2%

1%

7%

5%

84

More than 30 years

41%

48%

3%

1%

1%

5%

152

Central Maine

51%

35%

3%

3%

8%

32

Downeast/Coastal Maine

26%

54%

11%

4%

3%

1%

55

Southern Maine

33%

56%

2%

1%

3%

4%

230

46

1%

34
27%

42
168
94

67

54

53

 US President - Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein With Leaners (CD2 Only)
Trump

Clinton

Johnson

Stein

Other

Undecided

(N)

Maine Second District Likely Voters

40%

43%

6%

4%

3%

3%

329

Registered Democrat

10%

81%

1%

4%

1%

2%

112

Registered Unenrolled/Other

35%

37%

9%

7%

8%

4%

101

Registered Republican

75%

12%

9%

2%

1%

2%

115

Democrat

6%

84%

4%

4%

1%

1%

132

Independent

35%

29%

14%

10%

4%

8%

64

Republican

78%

8%

5%

1%

6%

2%

128

Voted Early

28%

65%

6%

1%

Will Definitely Vote

42%

42%

5%

4%

4%

3%

274

Will Vote Unless Emergency

41%

19%

25%

6%

Definitely Decided

45%

47%

5%

2%

2%

Leaning Towards Someone

35%

39%

10%

7%

7%

3%

Still Trying To Decide

34%

10%

11%

16%

12%

17%

Extremely Interested in Election

43%

45%

5%

3%

3%

Very Interested

39%

45%

7%

4%

1%

5%

Some/Little Interest

37%

33%

9%

6%

9%

5%

58

Gun Owner

53%

29%

8%

4%

3%

3%

204

Non-Gun Owner

17%

69%

4%

4%

4%

2%

115

18 to 34

36%

32%

21%

8%

3%

35 to 49

39%

39%

8%

4%

5%

4%

93

50 to 64

46%

45%

4%

3%

2%

103

65 and older

36%

56%

2%

1%

1%

3%

Male

49%

34%

7%

7%

3%

Female

33%

51%

6%

1%

4%

5%

175

High school or less

59%

24%

8%

3%

4%

1%

88

Technical school/Some college

36%

49%

6%

5%

3%

College graduate

42%

36%

7%

4%

4%

6%

96

Postgraduate work

17%

73%

2%

4%

1%

2%

67

Once a week or more often

47%

39%

5%

2%

4%

3%

61

Once or twice a month

50%

38%

4%

5%

4%

35

Few times a year

44%

40%

7%

5%

2%

2%

88

Never

33%

49%

6%

6%

4%

3%

137

Less than $30,000

38%

39%

6%

7%

6%

5%

44

$30,000 to $59,999

47%

36%

7%

2%

3%

4%

72

$60,000 to $99,999

30%

51%

6%

6%

5%

2%

59

$100,000 or more

45%

42%

6%

1%

4%

2%

65

10 years or less

27%

61%

5%

7%

11 to 20 years

27%

55%

8%

6%

3%

21 to 30 years

41%

36%

15%

2%

2%

4%

58

More than 30 years

46%

40%

3%

4%

5%

3%

185

Central Maine

40%

45%

10%

2%

1%

1%

114

Downeast/Coastal Maine

32%

50%

7%

5%

4%

2%

62

Northern Maine

44%

39%

3%

5%

5%

4%

153

36

8%

18
211
37
45
160
109

56

74
153

74

30
54

54

 US Congress District 1 - Pingree vs. Holbrook With Leaners
Holbrook

Pingree

Other

Undecided

(N)

28%

61%

3%

8%

299

Registered Democrat

4%

91%

2%

3%

113

Registered Unenrolled/Other

25%

56%

6%

13%

120

Registered Republican

75%

19%

1%

6%

64

Democrat

3%

92%

2%

3%

150

Independent

24%

45%

7%

24%

57

Republican

72%

20%

2%

6%

83

Voted Early

19%

80%

1%

Will Definitely Vote

31%

57%

3%

8%

233

Will Vote Unless Emergency

8%

62%

9%

20%

20

Extremely Interested in Election

22%

68%

3%

6%

162

Very Interested

39%

51%

4%

7%

85

Some/Little Interest

27%

55%

4%

14%

51

Gun Owner

40%

49%

3%

7%

135

Non-Gun Owner

14%

74%

3%

9%

149

18 to 34

23%

61%

5%

10%

76

35 to 49

29%

56%

4%

12%

62

50 to 64

31%

59%

2%

7%

91

65 and older

27%

69%

2%

2%

64

Male

40%

51%

2%

7%

146

Female

16%

71%

5%

High school or less

39%

49%

Technical school/Some college

30%

57%

College graduate

30%

Postgraduate work

12%

Trump Voter

Maine First District Likely Voters

46

9%

153

12%

48

8%

5%

62

58%

4%

8%

118

81%

1%

6%

68

63%

21%

4%

12%

94

Clinton Voter

5%

88%

1%

5%

163

Johnson Voter

41%

49%

10%

Stein Voter

34%

66%

Other/Undecided

34%

42%

9%

15%

23

Once a week or more often

39%

50%

2%

9%

44

Once or twice a month

41%

49%

3%

6%

25

Few times a year

33%

56%

1%

10%

90

Never

16%

72%

6%

6%

130

Less than $30,000

14%

75%

11%

25

$30,000 to $59,999

27%

61%

4%

8%

60

$60,000 to $99,999

27%

62%

3%

8%

73

$100,000 or more

35%

56%

1%

7%

73

10 years or less

14%

80%

5%

23

11 to 20 years

25%

65%

2%

8%

47

21 to 30 years

21%

62%

7%

10%

81

More than 30 years

34%

57%

2%

7%

143

Central Maine

43%

50%

3%

3%

32

Downeast/Coastal Maine

18%

74%

5%

3%

52

Southern Maine

28%

60%

3%

10%

215

11
4

60

 US Congress District 2 - Poliquin vs. Cain With Leaners
Poliquin

Cain

Other

Undecided

(N)

Maine Second District Likely Voters

44%

46%

4%

6%

314

Registered Democrat

10%

86%

3%

1%

109

Registered Unenrolled/Other

41%

44%

5%

10%

90

Registered Republican

79%

10%

4%

7%

114

Democrat

10%

87%

2%

1%

129

Independent

41%

32%

7%

19%

61

Republican

83%

10%

4%

4%

119

Voted Early

35%

65%

Will Definitely Vote

45%

45%

4%

5%

266

Will Vote Unless Emergency

43%

28%

29%

16

Extremely Interested in Election

44%

51%

3%

2%

155

Very Interested

46%

43%

3%

8%

106

Some/Little Interest

39%

40%

7%

14%

52

Gun Owner

54%

33%

4%

8%

197

Non-Gun Owner

24%

70%

3%

2%

108

18 to 34

61%

26%

3%

10%

51

35 to 49

42%

46%

5%

7%

90

50 to 64

42%

49%

3%

6%

100

65 and older

37%

58%

4%

1%

72

Male

49%

44%

3%

3%

146

Female

40%

48%

4%

8%

168

High school or less

53%

36%

5%

7%

83

Technical school/Some college

49%

46%

3%

1%

71

College graduate

44%

41%

3%

12%

91

Postgraduate work

28%

66%

4%

2%

66

Trump Voter

83%

7%

5%

5%

123

Clinton Voter

7%

88%

2%

3%

137

Johnson Voter

68%

7%

9%

15%

16

Stein Voter

27%

73%

Other/Undecided

53%

23%

4%

20%

23

Once a week or more often

55%

40%

1%

5%

62

Once or twice a month

50%

35%

6%

9%

32

Few times a year

50%

42%

Never

33%

55%

Less than $30,000

36%

$30,000 to $59,999
$60,000 to $99,999

32

13

7%

82

7%

5%

130

58%

4%

2%

40

45%

43%

7%

6%

68

35%

56%

3%

6%

56

$100,000 or more

58%

33%

2%

7%

66

10 years or less

16%

70%

11%

4%

28

11 to 20 years

34%

53%

3%

11%

50

21 to 30 years

57%

36%

2%

5%

55

More than 30 years

47%

44%

3%

5%

180

Central Maine

43%

48%

5%

4%

109

Downeast/Coastal Maine

36%

54%

2%

8%

56

Northern Maine

48%

43%

3%

6%

149

62