Ciruli Associates University of Denver Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Colorado Election and Issues October 2016 Research Design • • • • • Sponsored By: University of Denver and Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Conducted By: Floyd Ciruli, Director of Crossley Center for Public Opinion Research Sample: Random sample of registered likely voters in State of Colorado Sample Size: 550 likely voters Conducted by telephone with live interviews, both landline and cellphone. Landline 47%, cellphone 52%. • Margin of Error: Total sample: ±4.2 percentage points in 95 out of 100 cases • Date in Field: October 29-31, 2016 POLICY QUESTIONS Direction of State Let me ask you a general question about how you believe things are going in Colorado. 1. Overall, would you say things are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track here in Colorado? Right direction............................ Wrong track ................................ Don’t know/refused.................... 55% 34 11 Time in Colorado 2. How long have you lived in Colorado? 5 years or less ............................. 6 to 10 years ............................... 11 to 20 years.............................. More than 20 years ..................... Don’t know/refused.................... 12% 8 19 61 -- C iru liA ssociates Presidential Election R O T AT EQ 3 AN D Q 4 EVER O T HER IN T ER VIEW Considering the presidential election: 3. If the election for president was held today with [R O T AT E] Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican candidates, and Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic candidates, for whom would you vote? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, who did you vote for in the presidential race? Donald Trump and Mike Pence .. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine ... Depends (vol) .............................. Neither (vol) ................................ Other (vol) ................................... Don’t know/refused..................... 4. Total Already Voted Not Voted 41% 42 -8 2 7 38% 45 -6 2 8 45% 37 1 10 1 6 If the election for president were held today with [R O T AT ET O P T W O ] Donald Trump and Mike Pence as the Republican candidates, and Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine as the Democratic candidates, Gary Johnson the Libertarian candidate, and Jill Stein the Green Party candidate, for whom would you vote? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, who did you vote for in the presidential race? Donald Trump and Mike Pence .. Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine ... Gary Johnson............................... Jill Stein....................................... Depends (vol) .............................. None/other (vol) .......................... Don’t know/refused..................... Total Already Voted Not Voted 39% 39 5 4 1 5 8 37% 44 4 3 -4 8 42% 33 5 5 1 5 9 Election Result Let me ask about the legitimacy of the election. If [R O T AT E] (put in name of candidate) wins, will you accept the result as legitimate or would you consider the result as not legitimate? 5. 6. Legitimate Not Legitimate Hillary Clinton.................... 70% Donald Trump .................... 85 22% 8 Don’t Know 7% 7 2 Vote for Clinton Legitimate 99% 84 Vote for Clinton Not Legitimate 1% 13 Vote for Trump Legitimate 41% 88 Vote for Trump Not Legitimate 47% 3 C iru liA ssociates U.S. Senate Election 7. If the election for U.S. Senate was today, would you vote for [R O T AT E] Darryl Glenn the Republican candidate or Michael Bennet the Democratic candidate? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, who did you vote for in the race for U.S. Senate? Darryl Glenn................................ Michael Bennet ........................... Other candidate (vol)................... Don’t know/refused..................... Total Already Voted Not Voted 40% 48 3 9 36% 53 4 7 45% 42 1 12 Recreational Marijuana 8. Do you believe recreational marijuana sales should be expanded in Colorado? Total Yes .............................................. No ............................................... Don’t know/refused .................... Democrat 35% 53 12 48% 40 12 Unaffiliated Republican 34% 50 16 22% 70 7 State Ballot Issues There will be several proposals on the ballot in this November’s election. ColoradoCare 9. One proposal, Amendment 69, on this November’s election ballot would create ColoradoCare, a universal health care system for Colorado residents, partially paid for by a $25 billion dollar increase in state taxes. As of today, will you vote for ballot Amendment 69 or vote against it? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the ColoradoCare amendment? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... 3 Total Already Voted 25% 67 8 26% 70 4 C iru liA ssociates Minimum Wage 10. An amendment to the Colorado Constitution would increase Colorado’s minimum wage to $9.30 per hour with annual increases of 90 cents each January 1 until it reaches $12 per hour in January 2020. As of today, will you vote for it or vote against it? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the minimum wage amendment? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... Total Already Voted 54% 41 6 58% 39 2 Medical Aid in Dying 11. Another measure would permit any mentally capable adult Colorado resident who has a medical prognosis of death by terminal illness within six months to receive a prescription from a willing licensed physician for medication that can be self-administered to bring about death. As of today, will you vote for it or vote against it? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the medical aid in dying measure? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... Total Already Voted 62% 32 6 67% 29 3 Amend the Constitution 12. Another amendment to the Colorado Constitution will make it more difficult to amend the state constitution. It would require new constitutional ballot amendments to have signatures from at least 2 percent of all voters in each of the state’s 35 Senate districts. In addition, the measure would require approval from 55 percent of voters in November to amend the state constitution. As of today, will you vote for it or vote against it? P EO P L E W HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the amendment? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... 4 Total Already Voted 53% 34 12 57% 38 5 C iru liA ssociates Cigarette Tax 13. Another proposal would amend the Colorado Constitution so that, starting in January 2017, taxes on a pack of cigarettes would increase from 84 cents per pack to $2.59 per pack. The tax on other tobacco products would increase by 22 percent of the manufacturers’ list price. The revenues would be spent on tobacco- and medical-related programs. As of today, will you vote for the initiative or vote against it? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the proposed taxes? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... Total Already Voted 48% 48 4 48% 50 2 Primary Election 14. A measure on the ballot would allow unaffiliated voters to participate in primary elections without having to be a member of a certain political party. However, Republicans and Democrats could decide to not have a primary election and instead choose their general election nominees at the assembly or convention, providing that 75 percent of the party’s state central committee agrees. As of today, will you vote for the measure or vote against it? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the measure? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... Total Already Voted 50% 40 9 52% 42 5 Presidential Primary Election 15. Another measure on the ballot would create a presidential primary election before the end of March in presidential election years and allow unaffiliated voters to participate without declaring to be a member of a political party. As of today, will you vote for it or vote against it? P EO P L EW HO AL R EADY VO T ED,AS K: If you already voted, how did you vote on the measure? Vote for ....................................... Vote against ................................ Don’t know/refused .................... 5 Total Already Voted 62% 31 7 62% 33 5 C iru liA ssociates Demographic Questions We are almost finished. The final questions are for background information only. The answers to these questions help us to understand the results. Your answers to these questions, like all the survey questions, are confidential and used only when combined with all other answers from persons who are interviewed. 16. What was the last grade or degree you completed in school? High school graduate or less ........................................................ Some college/2-year college/business/vocational school ............ College graduate (4-year) bachelor’s degree................................ Post grad work/professional graduate/masters/doctorate/law ...... Don’t know/refused...................................................................... 17. How old are you? 18-29 ........................................... 30-39 ........................................... 40-49 ........................................... 50-59 ........................................... 60-74 ........................................... 75 and over ................................. Don’t know/refused .................... 18. 16% 15 15 17 27 9 -- Thinking about political philosophy, would you say you are: [R O T AT ED] Very liberal.................................. Somewhat liberal ........................ Moderate ..................................... Somewhat conservative .............. Very conservative........................ Other ........................................... Don’t know/refused .................... 19. 17% 23 36 23 -- 15% 19 23 19 19 2 3 Summary Ideology Liberal Middle Conservative 34% 23 38 Ciruli Associates 2016 Considering political parties, do you identify yourself as a: [R O T AT ED] Strong Democrat ............................................. Not very strong Democrat............................... Independent, not affiliated with either party... Not very strong Republican ............................ Strong Republican........................................... Other (vol)....................................................... Don’t know/refused ........................................ 22% 11 30 15 19 --- 6 Summary Party Democrat Independent Republican 33% 30 34 Ciruli Associates 2016 C iru liA ssociates 20. Are you of Hispanic or Spanish-speaking background? [IFYES ,M AR KBEL O W AN D GO T O Q 21] IFN O ,AS K: With which race do you identify yourself: Are you white, black, Asian, Native American, or some other ethnic or racial background? White........................................... Hispanic/Latino........................... Black/African American ............. Asian ........................................... Native American ......................... Mixed race/ethnicity ................... Other ........................................... Don’t know/refused .................... 21. Summary Ethnicity White Non-white Ciruli Associates 2016 7% 19 19 15 15 13 9 3 Summary Income $50,000 or less $50,000-$100,000 $100,000 plus 26% 34 28 Ciruli Associates 2016 Sex: Male ............................................ Female......................................... 23. 81% 17 Last year, that is in 2015, what was your family’s total household income from all sources before taxes? Just stop me when I get to the right category. [R O T AT ED] Less than $20,000 ...................... $20,000 less than $50,000.......... $50,000 less than $75,000.......... $75,000 less than $100,000........ $100,000 less than $150,000...... $150,000 or more ....................... Refused ...................................... Don’t know ................................ 22. 81% 9 3 1 1 1 3 2 49% 51 Record political party registration (list): Republican .................................. Unaffiliated ................................. Democrat..................................... 7 37% 28 35