National Survey of Hispanic Voters National Survey of Hispanic Voters October 2016 This Washington Post-Univision poll was conducted by telephone October 26-30, 2016, among 1,008 Hispanic likely voters in the U.S., including landline and cell phone respondents in both English and Spanish. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Bendixen & Amandi International with the Tarrance Group. A national list of likely voters was used to sample voters identified as Hispanic on official records or who have Spanish first or last names. Respondents were screened to include only those identifying as Hispanic and likely to vote. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) SCREENS 1. To make sure that we have a representative sample, can you please tell me your age – are you under 18, between 18 and 34, between 35 and 49, between 50 and 64, or are you 65 and older? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. Under 18 Between 18 and 34 Between 35 and 49 Between 50 and 64 65 or older Refused TERMINATE CONTINUE CONTINUE CONTINUE CONTINUE TERMINATE 35% 28% 23% 14% 2. Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic or Latino? 1. Yes 2. No 9. Don’t know/No answer CONTINUE TERMINATE TERMINATE 100% 3. Would you prefer to be interviewed in Spanish or in English? 1. Spanish 2. English 38% 62% 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 4. As you may know, on November 8th, 2016 there will be a presidential election to elect the next President of the United States. How likely are you to vote in the November Presidential Election? very likely, somewhat likely or somewhat unlikely or not at all likely? 1. Very likely 2. Somewhat likely 3. Somewhat unlikely 4. Not at all likely 5. I have already voted 9. Don’t know/No answer 87% 8% 2% 0% 3% 5. How enthusiastic would you say you are about voting in the 2016 presidential election – very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, somewhat unenthusiastic or not enthusiastic at all? 1. Very enthusiastic 2. Somewhat enthusiastic 3. Somewhat unenthusiastic 4. Not enthusiastic at all 9. Don’t know / No answer 58% 21% 10% 10% 2% 6. In your opinion is this November’s presidential election more important, less important or about the same in importance as previous presidential elections. 1. More important 2. Less important 3. About the same 9. Don’t know / No answer 78% 4% 16% 2% 7. If the election for President were held today, for whom would you vote –Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? (IF UNDECIDED) Even though you are undecided, if you had to choose today which way are you leaning? 1. Hillary Clinton 67% 2. Donald Trump 19% 3. Gary Johnson 4% 4. Jill Stein 2% 5. Other (volunteered) 1% 9. Don’t know / No answer 7% ELECTORAL MOTIVATION 8. Which one of the following issues will be the MOST important in deciding your vote for president in November 2016? 1. Jobs and the economy 2. Immigration 3. Education 28% 15% 8% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 4. Healthcare 5. Terrorism 6. Racism and Race Relations 7. (VOL). Integrity, Leadership, Character &/or Experience 8. Foreign policy 9. Income Inequality 10. Gun Control 11. LGBT Rights 12. Global Climate Change 13. (VOL.) Supreme Court 14. (VOL). Social Security 15. (VOL). Negative on Clinton and/or e-mail story 16. (VOL). Criminal Justice reform 17. (VOL). Abortion 18. All the issues 19. Other 99. Don’t know/No answer 8% 8% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% *% *% 3% 3% 3% IMAGE RATINGS I am now going to read you the names of some political leaders and political parties. After I read each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable view of them. If you have not heard of them or are unfamiliar with them, please just say so. 9. The Democratic Party 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Somewhat unfavorable opinion Very unfavorable opinion Do not recognize 42% 29% 9% 15% 4% 10. The Republican Party 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Somewhat unfavorable opinion Very unfavorable opinion Do not recognize 11% 16% 22% 44% 7% 11. Barack Obama 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Somewhat unfavorable opinion Very unfavorable opinion Do not recognize 50% 26% 7% 15% 2% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 12. Hillary Clinton 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Somewhat unfavorable opinion Very unfavorable opinion Do not recognize 43% 26% 8% 20% 3% 13. Donald Trump 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Somewhat unfavorable opinion Very unfavorable opinion Do not recognize 11% 9% 12% 64% 4% PERCEPTIONS OF THE CANDIDATES [HALF SAMPLE 14A-17B] 14a. Which candidate do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve as president, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 66% 12% 7% 4% 10% 14b. Which candidate do you trust to do a better job improving the lives of Hispanics living in the United States, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 68% 15% 5% 1% 11% 15a. Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the economy, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 60% 20% 5% 3% 12% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 15b. Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling immigration issues, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 66% 16% 4% 2% 11% 16a. Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling healthcare, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 64% 18% 3% 5% 10% 16b. Which candidate do you trust to do a better job handling the threat of terrorism, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 62% 19% 2% 2% 14% 17a. Which candidate do you think is more honest and trustworthy, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 53% 16% 7% 5% 19% 17b. Overall, which candidate do you think is closer to your opinion on the issues, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 65% 17% 4% 3% 10% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 18. Overall, which candidate for President of the United States do you think has been more active in trying to win the votes of the Hispanic community, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 73% 13% 2% 1% 11% Donald Trump 19. How much have you heard about Donald Trump’s recorded comments regarding women? – a lot, some, not too much or none at all? 1. A lot 2. Some 3. Not too much 4. None at all 9. Don’t know / No answer SKIP TO Q.21 SKIP TO Q.21 75% 16% 5% 3% 2% 20. Do you believe that Donald Trump’s comments are an indication of the way he really thinks about and treats women or was it just harmless locker room talk that he didn’t really mean? 1. That’s what he really thinks 2. Just locker room talk 9. Don’t know / No answer 71% 20% 8% Hillary Clinton 21. How much have you heard about Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state? – a lot, some, not too much or none at all? 1. A lot 2. Some 3. Not too much 4. None at all 9. Don’t know / No answer SKIP TO Q.23 SKIP TO Q.23 63% 22% 8% 3% 3% 22. Do you believe that Hillary Clinton has told the truth about how she handled her email? 1. Yes 2. No 9. Don’t know / No answer 37% 41% 22% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 23. Donald Trump has said that if he became president he would appoint a Special Prosecutor to re-investigate Clinton's handling of classified emails while she was secretary of state. Would you support or oppose Donald Trump taking this action if elected president? PROBE: Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? 1. Strongly support 2. Somewhat support 3. Somewhat oppose 4. Strongly oppose 9. Don’t know / No answer 21% 12% 13% 44% 10% 24. Do you believe that Donald Trump is a racist? 1. Yes 2. No 9. Don’t know / No answer 73% 19% 8% 25. Do you believe that Hillary Clinton is a liar? 1. Yes 2. No 9. Don’t know / No answer 44% 36% 20% 26. Regardless of who you may be personally supporting for president in this election, which candidate do you believe is going to win, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson or Jill Stein? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Don’t know/No answer 75% 12% 2% 1% 11% 27. Do you believe that the election for president will be fair and accurate or that the election will be rigged in favor of one candidate? 1. Fair and accurate 2. Rigged in favor of one candidate 9. Don’t know / No answer 63% 22% 14% 28. Thinking about the results of the presidential election this November, how important do you think it is for a losing candidate to publicly acknowledge the winner as the legitimate president of the country? 1. Very important 2. Somewhat important 67% 15% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 3. Not too important 4. Not important at all 9. Don’t know / No answer 7% 5% 7% National Issues 29. Do you support or oppose building a wall along the United States border with Mexico? PROBE: Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? 1. Strongly support 2. Somewhat support 3. Somewhat oppose 4. Strongly oppose 5. Don’t know 9. No answer VOLUNTEERED VOLUNTEERED 13% 13% 12% 56% 4% 1% Future of the Republican Party among Hispanics [Asked of those not voting Republican in Q.7, or Q7x] 30. You indicated that you are not currently supporting Donald Trump and are unlikely to change your mind in this year’s election. Going forward, would you consider voting for a Republican candidate in future presidential elections or has the Republican Party lost the possibility of your support for the foreseeable future? 1. Yes, I would consider voting for a Republican candidate in the future 2. No, I would not consider voting for a Republican candidate in the future 9. Don’t know / No answer 40% 40% 20% GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL PREFERENCE 31. If the election for United States Representative in your district were held today would you be more likely to support the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate? (IF UNDECIDED) Even though you are undecided, if you had to choose today which way are you leaning? 1. Democratic candidate 2. Republican candidate 9. Don’t know / No answer 66% 24% 10% DEMOGRAPHICS We are almost finished with our survey. I just have a few final questions left that are for classification purposes only. 32. What is the highest level of education that have you have completed – elementary school, high school graduate, two-year college or technical school graduate, or college graduate or higher degree? POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Elementary school High school graduate/GED Two-year college or technical school graduate / Some college College graduate or higher degree/Bachelor’s degree or higher Don’t know/No answer 14% 28% 33% 23% 2% 33. In what country were you born? 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. United States Puerto Rico Mexico Central America South America Dominican Republic Cuba Spain Other/No answer CONTINUE TO Q33a CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 CONTINUE TO Q34 53% 6% 19% 6% 7% 3% 3% 1% 2% 33a. In what country were your parents and/or grandparents born? [MULTIPLE RESPONSES ACCEPTED] 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. United States Puerto Rico Mexico Central America South America Dominican Republic Cuba Spain Other/No answer 59% 4% 32% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 4% 34. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, Independent or other party? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democrat Republican Independent Other (______Specify) Don’t know/No answer 57% 16% 23% 1% 3% [If not a Democrat or Republican.] 34x. Which party do you lean toward? Democrat or Republican? 1. Democrat 2. Republican 9. Don’t know/No answer 43% 22% 34% POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 35. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Liberal Moderate Conservative Don’t think in those terms Don’t know/No answer 29% 33% 25% 8% 4% This completes our survey. Thank you very much for your participation and have a nice day/evening. [CODE ONLY – DO NOT ASK] A. Gender 1. Male 2. Female 46% 54% B. Region 1. Northeast 2. Midwest 3. South 4. West 16% 9% 35% 40% METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and Univision. The poll is a random sample of the continental United States, with interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. A stratified random sample of voters with traditionally Hispanic first, middle or last names was drawn from a national list of likely voters maintained by the firm L2 Political, which aggregates state-level voter records and matches them to commercially-available phone numbers. Professionally-trained interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers and asked for the registered voter in the sample by name. The final sample included 716 interviews completed on landlines and 292 interviews completed via cellular phones. Only voters who were successfully contacted by name and said they consider themselves Hispanic or Latino were interviewed. Because some Hispanic Americans do not have traditionally Hispanic names, a test was conducted to assess coverage of the ethnic name method by cross-referencing names with voters’ self-identified ethnicity according to Florida’s registration file. The analysis found 95 percent of all Hispanic-identified voters also had a first, middle or last name included in the list used to draw the national sample. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. Results are weighted match the demographic makeup of Hispanic registered voters in the U.S. by POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016 sex, region, age, and education according to the 2014 Current Population Survey November Voting and Registration supplement. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.3 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All likely voters Half sample Unweighted sample size 1,008 500-508 Error margin +/- 3.5 points 5.0 s The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. POST-UNIVISION NATIONAL SURVEY OF HISPANIC VOTERS – OCTOBER 2016