UPI/CVoter Poll
State Tracker 2016
Current state projections are based on UPI/CVoter’s state tracking poll conducted online
during the last two weeks among 18+ adults nationwide, including likely voters, details of
which are mentioned beside the projections as of today.
The CVoter State Poll is different from the National Poll. In our National Poll, we are tracking
opinions of more than 200 people each day, leading to a national representative sample
size of at least 1,400 people during any seven-day span.
In our State Poll, we are tracking opinions of about 250 likely voters in each state every
week, leading to a state representative sample size of about 500 likely voters during any
two-week span. In total, we are covering about 25,000 samples in this time frame across all
the states for our state projections. The data is weighted to the known demographic profile
of the United States, including the Census. Sometimes the table figures do not sum to 100
due to the effects of rounding.

pg. 1

 UPI/CVoter Tracking Poll
State Tracker2016
If the U.S. presidential election was held today, which candidate would you vote for? *LV Only*
STATE
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Washington D.C.
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

pg. 2

CLINTON

TRUMP
36.9
40.5
43.2
37.0
58.0
49.6
55.3
54.0
47.3
44.4
64.8
33.3
53.9
43.3
46.6
38.6
35.5
39.7
53.8
56.3
59.2
48.9
49.5
42.0
43.9
40.7
37.6
49.3
49.3
54.8
46.6
58.6
46.6
38.6
47.1
33.6
51.0
47.8
58.9
42.1
40.1
39.1
40.4
28.0
62.2
49.5
55.8
91.5
33.7
51.3
27.9

58.3
52.7
50.1
57.3
37.4
44.3
40.2
41.8
47.4
49.6
31.2
59.7
40.4
51.0
47.6
53.9
59.8
55.3
41.1
37.9
36.9
45.0
46.2
53.9
49.1
53.7
55.9
45.9
43.1
41.3
38.3
37.8
47.5
54.9
48.3
62.6
43.2
47.1
36.6
53.2
55.0
54.8
54.1
43.4
33.3
43.9
38.7
5.5
56.0
43.1
67.2

OTHERS
4.8
6.9
6.7
5.7
4.6
6.1
4.6
4.1
5.3
6.1
3.9
7.1
5.7
5.7
5.8
7.6
4.8
5.1
5.1
5.8
3.9
6.2
4.3
4.1
7.0
5.7
6.4
4.8
7.6
3.9
15.1
3.6
5.9
6.5
4.6
3.9
5.9
5.1
4.5
4.8
4.9
6.1
5.5
28.5
4.5
6.6
5.5
3.0
10.3
5.6
4.9

MARGIN
-21.4
-12.2
-6.9
-20.3
20.6
5.3
15.1
12.2
-0.2
-5.2
33.6
-26.4
13.6
-7.7
-0.9
-15.3
-24.3
-15.6
12.7
18.3
22.3
3.9
3.3
-11.8
-5.3
-13.1
-18.3
3.4
6.2
13.5
8.3
20.8
-0.8
-16.3
-1.2
-29.0
7.8
0.7
22.3
-11.1
-14.9
-15.8
-13.7
-15.4
28.9
5.7
17.1
86.0
-22.3
8.2
-39.3

 If the U.S. presidential election was held today, which candidate would you vote for? *LV Only*
Sample size & fieldwork details:
STATE
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
Washington D.C.
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

pg. 3

SAMPLESIZE
341
308
354
323
507
343
327
307
438
366
308
322
403
338
342
328
328
329
308
329
330
334
330
330
380
339
340
323
310
348
330
458
357
307
345
323
319
390
310
338
312
339
472
320
305
344
328
312
309
372
320

SWING_STATE
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Normal
Normal
Swing
Swing
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Swing
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Swing
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Normal
Swing
Normal
Normal
Swing
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Normal
Normal
Normal
Swing
Normal

LEADING
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
TOSS UP
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
TOSS UP
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
TOSS UP
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
TOSS UP
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump

Starting
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016
10/30/2016

Ending
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016
11/6/2016

 If the U.S. presidential election was held today, which candidate would you vote for? *LV Only*
REPUBLICAN-TOSSUP-DEMOCRAT Categorization of states:
REPUBLICAN : LIKELY
STATE

CLINTON

Wyoming
Oklahoma
Idaho
Kentucky
West Virginia
Alabama
Arkansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
Tennessee
Louisiana
Utah
Kansas
South Dakota
Texas
Montana
Alaska
Mississippi
South Carolina
Indiana
Arizona
Missouri
Georgia
Ohio

TRUMP
27.9
33.6
33.3
35.5
33.7
36.9
37.0
37.6
38.6
39.1
39.7
28.0
38.6
40.1
40.4
40.7
40.5
42.0
42.1
43.3
43.2
43.9
44.4
47.1

OTHERS
4.9
3.9
7.1
4.8
10.3
4.8
5.7
6.4
6.5
6.1
5.1
28.5
7.6
4.9
5.5
5.7
6.9
4.1
4.8
5.7
6.7
7.0
6.1
4.6

MARGIN

67.2
62.6
59.7
59.8
56.0
58.3
57.3
55.9
54.9
54.8
55.3
43.4
53.9
55.0
54.1
53.7
52.7
53.9
53.2
51.0
50.1
49.1
49.6
48.3

OTHERS
5.8
5.9
5.3
5.1

MARGIN

47.6
47.5
47.4
47.1

OTHERS
4.3
4.8
6.2
6.1
6.6
7.6
5.9
5.6
15.1
4.1
5.1
3.9
5.7
4.6
5.5
5.8
4.6
3.6
3.9
4.5
4.5
3.9
3.0

MARGIN

46.2
45.9
45.0
44.3
43.9
43.1
43.2
43.1
38.3
41.8
41.1
41.3
40.4
40.2
38.7
37.9
37.4
37.8
36.9
36.6
33.3
31.2
5.5

-39.3
-29.0
-26.4
-24.3
-22.3
-21.4
-20.3
-18.3
-16.3
-15.8
-15.6
-15.4
-15.3
-14.9
-13.7
-13.1
-12.2
-11.8
-11.1
-7.7
-6.9
-5.3
-5.2
-1.2

ABSOLUTE TOSS-UP STATE
STATE

CLINTON

Iowa
North Carolina
Florida
Pennsylvania

TRUMP
46.6
46.6
47.3
47.8

-0.9
-0.8
-0.2
0.7

DEMOCRAT : LIKELY
STATE
Minnesota
Nevada
Michigan
Colorado
Virginia
New Hampshire
Oregon
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Delaware
Maine
New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
Washington
Maryland
California
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont
Hawaii
Washington D.C.

pg. 4

CLINTON

TRUMP
49.5
49.3
48.9
49.6
49.5
49.3
51.0
51.3
46.6
54.0
53.8
54.8
53.9
55.3
55.8
56.3
58.0
58.6
59.2
58.9
62.2
64.8
91.5

3.3
3.4
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.2
7.8
8.2
8.3
12.2
12.7
13.5
13.6
15.1
17.1
18.3
20.6
20.8
22.3
22.3
28.9
33.6
86.0

 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES PROJECTION:
ECV – Donald Trump: 209
ECV – Toss-Up: 70
ECV – Hillary Clinton: 259
STATE
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Idaho
Kentucky
West Virginia
Alabama
Arkansas
Nebraska
North Dakota
Tennessee
Louisiana
Utah
Kansas
South Dakota
Texas
Montana
Alaska
Mississippi
South Carolina
Indiana
Arizona
Missouri
Georgia
Ohio
Iowa
North Carolina
Florida
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Nevada
Michigan
Colorado
Virginia
New Hampshire
Oregon
Wisconsin
New Mexico
Delaware
Maine
New Jersey
Illinois
Connecticut
Washington
Maryland
California
New York
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Vermont
Hawaii
Washington D.C.
GRAND TOTAL

MARGIN

TRUMP
-39.3
-29.0
-26.4
-24.3
-22.3
-21.4
-20.3
-18.3
-16.3
-15.8
-15.6
-15.4
-15.3
-14.9
-13.7
-13.1
-12.2
-11.8
-11.1
-7.7
-6.9
-5.3
-5.2
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
-0.2
0.7
3.3
3.4
3.9
5.3
5.7
6.2
7.8
8.2
8.3
12.2
12.7
13.5
13.6
15.1
17.1
18.3
20.6
20.8
22.3
22.3
28.9
33.6
86.0

ECV

TOSS-UP

CLINTON

3
7
4
8
5
9
6
5
3
11
8
6
6
3
38
3
3
6
9
11
11
10
16
18
6
15
29
20
10
6
16
9
13
4
7
10
5
3
4
14
20
7
12
10
55
29
11
4
3
4
3
209

70

259

ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES PROJECTION: The current projection reveals 4 states in
“Absolute” Toss-Up category, which means they could go either way as on today. If Trump
manages to win ALL 4 TossUp States, he could be next President. If Clinton manages to win
just one of these (Pennsylvania) she would hit the home run. So practically speaking, Clinton
could be the POTUS even if she manages to lose three most discussed key swing states of
Iowa, North Carolina & Florida.

pg. 5

 Methodology & Tracker Details
Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. The precision of online polls is
measured using a credibility interval. The error due to sampling for projections based on the
Likely Voter sample could be plus or minus 3 percentage points at the national level and plus
or minus 5 percentage points at state level. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to
other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.
In our State Poll, we are interviewing about 250 respondents in EACH state every week. This
totals to more than 12,500 interviews every week and about 25,000 samples every two
weeks. We make a rollover master file every day for each and every state from the samples
collected in the last 14 days; this gives us a new sample of about 500 every day for each and
every state. Thus, rather than a routine weekly tracker, the UPI/CVoter Poll is a daily tracker,
giving the public opinion trends on a daily basis.
We will analyze the Presidential Tracker over the rest of the campaign until Election Day. The
State Poll data collection started Sept. 1 and will continue until Nov. 7. This gives us an
opportunity to analyze fresh data daily through Election Day.
We did multiple rounds of pilots with different platforms, both online and offline, and
eventually decided that we would use the online mode for data collection. In the State
Tracker, we employ multiple providers of panels to randomize and remove the contact bias
of any one particular sample provider, if any. Just like in our 2012 presidential polls, our
exclusive Psephometer algorithm will be updated every day. So we will have the national
projection as well as the state-level projections on a daily basis. This will be a unique tracker
from that perspective.

Code of conduct & IPR Details
All our tracking polls conducted for media are released in public domain and report archives
are available on public platform. We are proud to follow the WAPOR/ESOMAR Code of
Conduct and meet the AAPOR Level 1 standard of disclosure. All publication rights for
worldwide UPI releases remain with UPI, and all survey instruments, design and data IPR
remain with CVoter.

Contact:
Yashwant Deshmukh, Editor, CVoter International: yashwant@teamcvoter.com
Charlene Pacenti, Chief Content Officer, UPI: cpacenti@upi.com

pg. 6