IPSOS POLL DATA Prepared by Ipsos Public Affairs IPSOS PUBLIC AFFAIRS: Center for Public Integrity 12-7-2016 These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted December 5-6, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 1,008 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’s online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2015 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, region, race/ethnicity and income. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for all respondents, 5.8 for democrats, 6.4 for republicans, and plus or minus 7.6 for independents (see link below for more info on Ipsos online polling “Credibility Intervals”). Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,008, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=5.0). For more information about Ipsos online polling methodology, please go here http://goo.gl/yJBkuf Q1. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican an Independent or none of these? All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strong Democrat 17% 46% - - Moderate Democrat 20% 54% - - Moderate Republican 16% - 54% - Strong Republican 14% - 46% - Independent 22% - - 100% None of these 7% - - - Don’t know/Refused 3% - - - All Americans Democrat Republican Independent True 57% 62% 57% 54% False 20% 18% 21% 26% Don’t know 23% 20% 21% 19% Q2_1. True or False? Current law limits the amount of money a candidate can receive from a single individual. IPSOS POLL DATA Prepared by Ipsos Public Affairs Q2_2. True or False? Current federal law limits the amount of money a political party or committee can receive from a single individual. Q2_3. True or False? Current federal law limits the amount of money an independent political organization (known as Super PACs) can receive from a single individual. Q3_1. Should federal laws limit or not limit the amount of funding the following can receive from a single individual? Political candidates Q3_2. Should federal laws limit or not limit the amount of funding the following can receive from a single individual? Political parties or committees Q3_3. Should federal laws limit or not limit the amount of funding the following can receive from a single individual? Independent political organizations (known as Super PACs) All Americans Democrat Republican Independent True 51% 55% 52% 51% False 22% 21% 23% 26% Don’t know 26% 24% 25% 23% All Americans Democrat Republican Independent True 38% 42% 39% 36% False 28% 27% 29% 31% Don’t know 34% 30% 32% 33% All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strict Limits 44% 46% 42% 49% Moderate Limits 33% 35% 36% 24% No Limits 11% 6% 14% 15% Don’t know 13% 13% 8% 11% All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strict Limits 41% 45% 39% 43% Moderate Limits 33% 33% 40% 29% No Limits 12% 10% 12% 18% Don’t know 14% 12% 9% 11% All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strict Limits 41% 44% 42% 45% Moderate Limits 30% 32% 31% 27% No Limits 12% 9% 13% 15% Don’t know 17% 15% 15% 12% IPSOS POLL DATA Prepared by Ipsos Public Affairs Q4_1. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: If there were no limits on how much money a candidate could receive, there would be no reason to give to Super PACS. Q4_2. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Political donations have little impact on the positions of political candidates. Q4_3. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Wealthy people will figure out new ways to influence politics if campaign finance laws are changed. All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strongly agree 21% 22% 23% 19% Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 43% 43% 47% 38% 26% 23% 26% 34% 9% 12% 5% 8% All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strongly agree 10% 13% 8% 7% Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 18% 18% 18% 14% 35% 32% 40% 37% 36% 36% 33% 42% All Americans Democrat Republican Independent Strongly agree 47% 50% 42% 51% Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree 42% 40% 48% 37% 7% 5% 7% 7% 4% 4% 2% 5% INFO: As you may know, current federal law limits the amount of money candidates or parties can raise, but places no such limits on independent organizations (Super PACs). Q5. Which of the following is closer to your opinion? There should be no limits on candidate or political party fundraising but limits on independent organizations. There should be limits on candidate and party fundraising but no limits on independent organizations. All Americans Democrat Republican Independent 40% 42% 42% 36% 60% 58% 58% 64% IPSOS POLL DATA Prepared by Ipsos Public Affairs How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.e., Y θ~Bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y )̅ is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the Bayesian and the Classical framework. The Bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters. Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the Classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately: For this poll, the Bayesian Credibility Interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2 Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below. Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes (sample sizes) below 100. Sample size 2,000 1,500 1,000 750 500 350 200 100 Credibility intervals 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.1 5.0 6.0 7.9 11.2 IPSOS POLL DATA Prepared by Ipsos Public Affairs