LLC Prepared by Kevin Fisher, Deametrious St. John Kenn Dowell Analysis: Hillary Clinton?s campaign rejected proven methods for reaching and motivating African American Voters in 2016 Hillary Clinton’s campaign rejected proven methods for reaching and motivating African American Voters in 2016 U pon securing the Democratic Nomination for President in 2016, the Hillary Clinton campaign was presented with a program to engage the African American community in Ohio and move towards a robust GOTV effort in the state’s 9 largest counties. An analysis of the preceding presidential and statewide races in Ohio indicated that Clinton would need a minimum of 15 percent of the statewide electorate to be African American in order to carry Ohio’s electoral votes. The Clinton campaign failed to enact the program. The decision to not engage the black community in a meaningful way, was the single biggest mistake made by the Hillary Clinton campaign. That decision accounted for the overwhelming majority of the Trump margin of victory in Ohio, similarly decisions in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania ultimately cost her the White House. Strategic Resources Consulting, LLC (SRC) has conducted an analysis of the election results from November 8th 2016 to determine what factors resulted in the Trump victory in Ohio. This analysis involved collecting data from a sampling of counties with a significant African American population and comparing that information with results from previous elections. The report highlights numbers from Cuyahoga, Stark, Montgomery and Mahoning, four key counties which play different, but important roles in statewide elections. In each case, the effect of a drastically reduced or nonexistent African American outreach program led to a sharp decline in support for Hillary Clinton. Analyzing data from the Secretary of State along with available exit poll data show that Clinton likely received 134,949 fewer votes from African Americans in 2016 than Barack Obama did in 2012. While much of this can be attributed to lower turnout among African Americans, there was also significant erosion of support among those who did vote. Even with the black share of the vote falling by 7 percent, Donald Trump still received 33,000 more votes than Mitt Romney did in 2012. This number, alone, accounted for nearly 8 percent of Trump’s margin of victory. When combined with the drop in support to Clinton due to lower turnout, that percentage jumps to almost 40 percent. In Cuyahoga County, voter turnout fell by more than 50,000 votes from 2012 to 2016. Depressed turnout from the heaviest African American wards in Cleveland made up a huge part of that drop. SRC’s analysis shows that in just four of Cleveland’s 17 wards, Clinton lost 10,000 votes from the Obama number four years earlier. Our report shows that while the Obama campaign employed over 125 staffers in the 11th Congressional district in 2012, the Clinton camp had virtually no presence in the same area in 2016. Another Democratic stronghold county that is analyzed by SRC is Mahoning. A working class county along the Pennsylvania border, it was a prime target for the Trump campaign. In 2012, Obama carried Mahoning by 34,000 votes behind a strong showing in Youngstown’s African American neighborhoods. Clinton managed to hold this county by a slim 3,000 votes, and just as in the case in Cuyahoga, we see a significant drop of support in the black community due to lower turnout. Her margins in Youngstown wards 1, 2 and 3 were sharply lower than Obama’s in 2008 and 2012. In an area where Democrats need to run up a big lead to offset losses in the Southeast and western parts of the state, the Clinton campaign failed to mobilize her voters to turn out. In Stark County, the most bellwether of bellwether counties, Clinton took a significant loss. Obama narrowly won Stark in 2012, and his entire margin of victory could be found in higher than usual support in Canton’s 2nd and 4th wards. Strategic Resources Consulting’s analysis shows that in just these two wards, Clinton gave back nearly half of President Obama’s lead from 2012. The complete absence of any African American outreach not only swung Stark to the Republican column in the presidential race, it led to a near Republican sweep in hotly contested races down ballot. In the final example provided by SRC, we look into the numbers of one of the only areas with a considerable African American population located in between Toledo and Cincinnati along the I-75 corridor, Montgomery County. This county had voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012, but went red in 2016. Montgomery County did not receive much, if any, attention from the Clinton campaign in 2016. The Dayton Daily News noted that Clinton became the first Democratic nominee since 1972 to skip making any trip to the county. Once more, SRC finds that no targeted effort was made in the heavily African American suburb of Trotwood or in the western portion of Dayton. In Trotwood alone, the drop off for support to Clinton made up the entire Trump margin of victory in Montgomery county. The breakdown of voting patterns in Ohio during the 2016 election shows very clearly that the Clinton campaign made no serious effort to reach out to African Americans and it was the leading factor in her loss. The immediate attention of the state and national Democratic parties must be set on correcting this mistake and it cannot wait until 2020. The midterm elections are rapidly approaching and without a serious course of correction, Democrats could not only lose a high profile Senate seat held by Sherrod Brown, but the Governor’s office, Secretary of State, and perhaps most importantly, control of the Apportionment Board. The ability of Democrats to compete in Ohio’s 16 Congressional Districts, as well as the State House and Senate races will be determined by the outcome of the 2018 election. If the erosion of support among African Americans is not reversed immediately, the Democrats will become a permanent minority party in Ohio. Strategic Resources Consulting recommends, in the strongest possible terms, that the Democratic Party sets forth a serious and concerted effort to plan, fund and enact a major outreach in the African American community in Ohio, as soon as possible.