To: Members of the Ad Hoc Committee From: Anita LaChance, Deputy City Manager Date: December 16, 2016 Re: Follow-up Information on Financial Projections In response to questions raised at the last ad hoc committee meeting, there are updated financial projections attached, incorporating the $60 million BFOF. Additionally, we have received a draft of the school facilities assessment and have incorporated the 0-5 year needs identified in that report. 0 Base projections with the addition of the proposed $60 million BFOF only, with no new City or School projects (so current debt only) 0 Base projections, pius $60 million BFOF, plus a typical (an average of the past 3 years) 0 Base projections, plus $60 million BFOF, plus all existing requests on the City side and the projects identified by the school facilities assessment on the school side i have also attached a summary of the 20 year capital needs as identified by the school facilities assessment. i would caution that this is a draft, but while some of the detail might change, it should be fairly accurate over all. Impact of Buildings for our Future on "fax Rate* Valuation (as projected) City Tax Levy (as projected) City Tax Rate (as projected) Rate Increase Increase School Tax Levy (as projected) School Tax Rate (as projected) Rate Increase increase Total Tax Rate (as projected) Rate Increase increase Cumulative increase related to BFOF Cumulative increase related to BFOF FY2017 FY2018 7,780,000,000 7,800,000,000 83,862,689 $10.78 87,116,012 311.17 0.39 3.6% 80,331,376 $10.33 84,516,375 $10.84 0.51 4.9% $21.11 $22.00 0.89 4.2% Increased Annual Taxes on $225,000 home (per tax year) Estimated Total Amount of Additional Taxes on a $225,000 home due to BFOF over the life of bonds FY2019 7,830,000,000 90,998,732 $11.62 0.45 4.1% 89,774,725 $11.47 0.63 5.8% $23.09 1.08 4.9% 0.16 0.7% 35.65 FY2020 7,860,000,000 94,299,153 512.00 0.38 3.2% 94,947,212 $12.08 0.61 5.4% $24.08 0.99 4.3% 0.34 1.5% 5 76.72 UPDATED EPS 11-16-15 FY2021 7,890,000,000 FY2022 7,920,000,000 99,247,580 104,707,427 $12.58 $13.22 0.58 0.64 4.8% 5.1% 99,517,935 103,530,735 $12.61 $13.07 0.53 0.46 4.4% 3.6% $25.19 $26.29 1.11 1.10 4.6% 4.4% 0.48 0.66 2.0% 2.6% 5 107.44 148.99 2,428 *Assumes no additional borrowing other than the BFOF project, included to illustrate the tax rate impact of the project Note that up to $3.3 miliion might need to be restored if other funding is not availabie Impact of "Typical" CIP on Tax Rate (Avg of Past 3 Years) BFOF on Tax Rate* Valuation (as projected) City Tax Levy (as projected) City Tax Rate (as projected) Rate Increase Increase School Tax Levy (as projected) School Tax Rate (as projected) Rate increase Increase Total Tax Rate (as projected) Rate Increase Increase *Average of the past 3 Cips FY2017 7,780,000,000 83,862,689 $10.78 80,331,376 $10.33 $21.11 FY2018 7,800,000,000 87,116,012 $11.17 0.389 3.6% 84,516,375 $10.84 0.51 4.9% $22.00 $0.894 4.2% FY2019 7,830,000,000 92,216,732 $11.78 0.609 5.4% 91,168,252 511.54 0.81 7.5% $23.42 $1.417 6.4% Note that up to $3.3 million might need to be restored if other funding is not available FY2020 7,860,000,000 96,708,953 $12.30 0.527 4.5% 97,929,779 $12.46 0.82 7.0% $24.76 $1.342 5.7% FY2021 7,890,000,000 102,822,980 $13.03 0.728 5.9% 103,813,070 $13.16 0.70 5.6% $26.19 $1.426 5.8% UPDATED EPS 11?16-16 FY2022 7,920,000,000 109,422,227 $13.82 0.784 6.0% 109,366,673 $13.81 0.55 5.0% $27.62 $1.435 5.5% impact of UPDATE CIP Requests (including BFOF) on Tax Rate* Valuation (as projected) City Tax Levy (as projected) City Tax Rate (as projected) Rate increase increase School Tax Levy (as projected) Schooi Tax Rate (as projected) Rate Increase Increase Total Tax Rate (as projected) Rate increase increase *Includes all CITY projects in the FY17-21 that have not yet been authorized, allocated equally over the next 5 years And FY2017 7,780,000,000 83,862,689 $10.78 80,331,376 $10.33 $21.11 School CIP based on the DRAFT Facilities Assessment 7,800,000,000 FY2018 FY2019 7,830,000,000 87,116,012 92,874,698 $11.17 $11.86 0.39 0.69 3.6% 6.2% 84,516,375 91,604,393 $10.84 $11.70 0.51 0.86 4.9% 8.0% $22.00 $23.56 0.89 1.56 4.2% 7.1% FY2020 7,860,000,000 98,010,290 $12.47 0.61 5.1% 98,792,367 $12.57 0.87 7.4% $25.04 1.48 6.3% FY2021 7,890,000,000 104,753,094 $13.28 0.81 6.5% 105,092,414 $13.32 0.75 6.0% $26.60 1.56 6.2% UPDATED EPS 11-16-16 FY2022 7,920,000,000 111,966,522 $14.14 0.86 6.5% 111,053,081 $14.02 0.70 5.3% $28.16 1.56 5.9% CAPITAL PLAN Immediate Recommendations Elementary Schools Page No. Recommendations Years 1 5 Short Term 2018 - 2022 Years 6 - 10 2023 - 2027 Years 11 - 15 2028 - 2032 Long Term Recommendations Years 16 20 2033 - 2037 Cliff Island $78,260 $125,079 $133,519 $55,036 $229,727 $621,621 East End Community 14 $59,600 $307,608 $543,076 $7,059,349 $7,418,537 $15,388,170 Longfellow 23 $132,597 $3,363,727 $6,378,111 $2,628,980 $2,365,473 $14,868,888 Lyseth 41 $5,023 $2,084,507 $10,899,401 $1,789,681 $2,421,194 $17,200,806 Ocean Avenue 54 $0 $58,721 $13,281 $3,674,105 $6,671,830 $10,417,938 Peaks island 60 $88,795 $754,702 $2,137,663 $0 $775,595 $3,756,755 Presumpscot 74 $755 $861,121 $5,478,512 1,05 0,202 $1,033,918 $8,424,508 Reiche 84 $0 $2,461,483 $13,943,037 $4,574,506 $2,431,142 $23,410,169 Riverton Elementary Schools Subtotal 94 $2,445 $1,359,444 $9,441,209 $2,919,735 $5,032,503 $18,755,335 $363,475 $11,376,392 $48,967,810 $23,751,595 $28,379,919 $112,844,190 Middle Schools King 117 $276,125 $1,350,494 $10,804,508 $4,054,302 $2,418,928 $18,904,358 Lincoln 127 $42,359 $1,693,688 $10,555,989 $4,676,513 $4,556,994 $21,525,543 Moore Middle Schools Subtotal 149 $3,600 $1,085,908 $10,922,265 $4,940,480 $4,904,587 $21,856,840 $322,084 $4,130,091 $32,282,762 $13,671,294 $11,880,509 $62,286,740 High Schools Portland Arts 82 Technology (PATHS) 166 $236,202 $6,420,862 $22,182,276 $8,303,498 $2,345,323 $39,488,161 Deenng 186 $93,210 $5,488,386 $22,967,783 $8,566,753 $5,370,574 $43,486,805 Portland High Schools Subtotal 207 $495,995 $2,902,491 $21,457,339 $14,024,246 $8,199,137 $47,079,209 $825,407 $14,811,739 $66,607,397 $30,894,497 $16,915,134 $130,054,175 Other Buildings District Of?ce] Bayside Learning 227 $47,083 $588,555 $3,329,624 $2,946,547 5 1,177,419 $8,089,228 Central Kitchen Subtotal 239 $0 $100,621 $1,083,033 $452,520 $174,095 $1,810,269 $47,083 $689,176 $4,412,657 $3,399,067 $1,351,515 $9,899,497 General District Items General District Items"' Non?building specific items from PPS 5?yr (ZIP) 246 $0 $6,337,065 $0 $0 $0 $6,337,065 TOTAL $1,563,049 $37,344,463 $152,270,626 $71,716,453 $58,527,077 $321,421,668 Notes: 1. All prices presented here are Opinions of Probable Costs. Refer to Methodology and Basis of Costs earlier in this section for assumptions, exclusions. qual' ications, and clarifications used to develop these costs. 2. For a more detailed breakdown of recommendations and associated costs for each building and Plan Year, refer to the Capital Plan Scope of Work for each building later in this section.