This Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 27-30, 2016,
among a random sample of 1,300 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including
landline and cell phone respondents. Results among the sample of 1,024 likely voters
have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data
collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
*= less than 0.5 percent
(Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the
end.)
RV=Registered voters

LV=Likely voters

1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following the 2016 presidential race:
very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all?

10/30/16
10/26/12
10/26/12
9/16/12
9/16/12
10/25/08
9/21/08

LV
LV
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV

---- Closely ----NET
Very
Smwt.
94
69
25
95
65
30
92
61
31
92
55
37
89
50
39
92
62
30
93
58
35

---- Not closely ----NET
Not too
At all
6
3
3
5
3
1
8
4
3
8
6
3
11
7
4
7
5
2
7
6
1

No
opinion
*
*
*
0
*
1
*

2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in
the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you
probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

10/30/16
8/14/16
10/26/12
9/16/12
10/25/08
9/21/08

RV
RV
RV
RV
RV
RV

Certain
to vote
82
80
88
89
88
88

Probably
vote
6
9
4
4
4
6

Chances
50/50
4
6
2
4
2
5

Less than
that
3
3
1
3
1
2

Don't think
will vote
(vol.)
1
1
1
1
*

Already
voted
(vol.)
4
NA
3
NA
5
NA

No
op.
*
1
*
*
*

3. If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were
[(Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats), (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the
Republicans)], [(Gary Johnson and Bill Weld of the Libertarian Party) and (Jill Stein
and Ajamu Baraka of the Green Party)], for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward
[(Clinton and Kaine), (Trump and Pence)], [(Johnson and Weld) or (Stein and Baraka)]?
(IF ALREADY VOTED) Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, did you vote
for...?

 NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – LIKELY VOTERS
Hillary
Clinton
10/30/16 LV 48
8/14/16 LV 46

Donald
Trump
42
39

Gary
Johnson
6
9

Jill
Stein
2
3

Other
(vol.)
1
1

None
of these
(vol.)
1
1

Would
not vote
(vol.)
0
-

No
opinion
1
1

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – REGISTERED VOTERS
10/30/16 RV
8/14/16 RV

47
45

39
34

6
11

3
4

1
1

2
3

*
1

2
1

4. (IF NOT CLINTON OR TRUMP) If the only candidates were (Hillary Clinton and Tim
Kaine, the Democrats) and (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans), for whom
would you vote? Would you lean toward (Clinton and Kaine) or toward (Trump and Pence)?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – BASED ON ALL LIKELY VOTERS

10/30/16 LV
8/14/16**LV

Clinton
51
51

Trump
45
43

Other
(vol.)
1
1

Neither
(vol.)
1
4

Would not
vote (vol.)
2
-

No
opinion
1
1

NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – BASED ON ALL REGISTERED VOTERS
10/30/16 RV
51
43
1
1
3
1
8/14/16**RV
52
38
1
5
2
1
Results based on total sample. Respondents who named Clinton or Trump in Q3 assigned
to initial preference
*8/14/16 “If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were
(Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats) and (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the
Republicans), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Clinton and Kaine) or
toward (Trump and Pence)?”

5. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were
being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican
candidate) in your congressional district? (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote for...?
NET LEANED VOTE

10/30/16

LV

Dem
cand.
47

Rep
cand.
46

Other
(vol.)
1

Neither
(vol.)
1

Would not
vote (vol.)
*

No
opinion
5

6. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of
[ITEM]? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat?
10/30/16 – Summary Table
LIKELY VOTERS
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.

Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
Tim Kaine
Mike Pence
Ed Gillespie
Cory Stewart
Carly Fiorina

------- Favorable ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
40
22
18
35
19
16
51
32
19
50
32
18
20
4
16
9
3
7
20
6
14

------ Unfavorable -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
57
9
47
60
11
49
42
12
30
36
15
22
16
10
6
15
9
6
39
18
21

No
opinion
3
5
7
13
64
76
41

2

 h. Ralph Northam
9
2
7
13
7
5
79
i. Bobby Scott
21
8
13
16
9
7
63
*Half sample asked items e-i. Items a-d asked first as a block in random order; items
e-i asked second in a block.
Trend:
a. Hillary Clinton
------- Favorable ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
40
22
18
44
25
19

------ Unfavorable -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
57
9
47
54
9
45

No
opinion
3
2

b. Donald Trump
------- Favorable ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
10/30/16 LV
35
19
16
8/14/16 LV
36
19
17

------ Unfavorable -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
60
11
49
62
7
55

No
opinion
5
2

------- Favorable ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
51
32
19
53
32
21
54
30
24
55
26
30
54
22
32
41
15
26
56
17
38
67
NA
NA
58
NA
NA
55
NA
NA

------ Unfavorable -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
42
12
30
40
16
24
37
16
20
33
16
16
34
16
18
39
21
18
28
16
12
23
NA
NA
33
NA
NA
25
NA
NA

No
opinion
7
7
9
12
11
20
17
10
8
21

------- Favorable ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
50
32
18
40
22
19

------ Unfavorable -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
36
15
22
33
15
19

No
opinion
13
26

10/30/16 LV
8/14/16 LV

c. Tim Kaine

10/30/16
8/14/16
8/14/16
10/26/12
9/16/12
5/2/12
5/4/11
10/12/06
10/26/05
9/9/05

LV
LV
RV
RV
RV
LV
LV
RV

d. Mike Pence
10/30/16 LV
8/14/16 LV

7. (AMONG TRUMP LIKELY VOTERS) Would you say the most important reason you support
Trump is (you agree with his policy positions), (that he is a political outsider who
can fix Washington) or (that he is better than Hillary Clinton)?

10/30/16 LV

Agree with his
policy positions
26

Political outsider/
can fix Washington
39

Better than
Clinton
27

Other
(VOL)
7

No
opinion
1

8. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think Donald Trump is a (different kind of Republican)
or do you think he is a (typical Republican)?
10/30/16 LV

Different
87

Typical
10

No opinion
4

9. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Thinking about Republicans running for office in the future,
would you prefer that the Republican Party nominate candidates in the future who are

3

 similar to Trump or different from Trump? Is that very similar/different or just
somewhat?

10/30/16 LV

-------Similar------NET
Very
Somewhat
27
12
15

------Different-----NET
Very
Somewhat
67
53
14

No
opinion
6

10. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Thinking about Democrats running for office in the future,
would you prefer that the Democratic Party nominate candidates in the future who are
similar to Clinton or different from Clinton? Is that very similar/different or just
somewhat?

10/30/16 LV

-------Similar------NET
Very
Somewhat
30
11
19

------Different-----NET
Very
Somewhat
66
47
19

No
opinion
4

11. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think Clinton is or is not too willing to bend the
rules? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

10/30/16 LV

----- Is too willing ---NET
Strongly
Somewhat
74
55
19

Compare to national:
----- Is too willing ---NET
Strongly
Somewhat
9/8/16
69
43
26
8/4/16
66
43
23
7/14/16
72
48
24

--- Is not too willing -NET
Somewhat
Strongly
20
8
12

--- Is not too willing -NET
Somewhat
Strongly
24
13
11
26
13
13
21
10
11

No
opinion
6

No
opinion
7
8
7

12. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think Trump is or is not biased against women and
minorities? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?

10/30/16 LV

------- Is biased ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
57
47
10

Compare to national:
------- Is biased ------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
9/8/16
60
48
12
8/4/16
60
46
14
7/14/16
56
44
13

------ Is not biased ---NET
Somewhat
Strongly
39
10
29

------ Is not biased ---NET
Somewhat
Strongly
36
10
26
36
11
25
39
12
27

opinion
4

No
opinion
4
4
5

13. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you personally been contacted by a representative
of the [CANDIDATE] campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for
your support, or not? How about by a representative of the [NEXT CANDIDATE] campaign?
a. Clinton
10/30/16 LV

Yes
24

No
75

No opinion
1

Yes
25

No
75

No opinion
1

b. Trump
10/30/16 LV

4

 Compare to 2012:
Obama
10/26/12
10/26/12
9/16/12
9/16/12

LV
RV
LV
RV

Yes
44
43
36
33

No
54
55
63
65

No opinion
2
2
2
1

LV
RV
LV
RV

Yes
41
40
32
31

No
57
58
67
68

No opinion
2
2
1
1

No opinion
1
1

Romney
10/26/12
10/26/12
9/16/12
9/16/12

Compare to 2008:
Obama
10/25/08 LV
10/25/08 RV

Yes
49
48

No
50
52

McCain
10/25/08 LV
10/25/08 RV

34
31

66
68

1
1

14. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Do you think there will or will not be attempts by people in
Virginia to intimidate or prevent legitimate voters from voting?
10/30/16 LV

Will
33

Will not
56

No opinion
11

15. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Thinking about voter fraud - like the same person voting
multiple times or someone voting who is not eligible - do you think there will or will
not be a significant amount of voter fraud in Virginia this election?
10/30/16 LV

Will
31

Will not
62

No opinion
7

16. (AMONG LEANED REPUBLICAN LIKELY VOTERS) Out of the candidates who ran, who did you
want to see win the Republican nomination for president this year? (IF NEEDED) Was it
Trump or one of the other candidates?

10/30/16 LV
8/14/16 RV

Trump

Other

38
40

58
54

No opinion
4
6

17. (AMONG LEANED DEMOCRATIC LIKELY VOTERS) Out of the candidates who ran, who did you
want to see win the Democratic nomination for president this year? (IF NEEDED) Was it
Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders or someone else?

10/30/16 LV
8/14/16 RV

Clinton
56
54

Sanders
35
35

Someone
else (vol.)
7
7

No
opinion
3
5

5

 18. (AMONG NON-REGISTERED VOTERS) Did you attempt to register to vote this year, or
not? IF YES: Did you experience difficulty with the Virginia Elections Board website
in trying to register, or not?

10/30/16

Yes,
Difficult
2

Yes,
not difficult
6

No
91

No
opinion
1

Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a
Republican, an independent or what?
10/30/16
10/30/16
8/14/16
10/27/13
10/27/13
10/27/13
9/22/13
9/22/13
9/22/13
5/2/13
5/2/13
5/2/13
10/26/12
9/16/12
5/2/12

LV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV
LV

Democrat
30
30
31
32
33
35
33
33
33
28
30
30
31
32
31

Republican
24
27
21
24
28
27
24
26
26
26
26
28
23
24
25

Independent
36
36
37
31
33
33
33
34
34
33
33
34
36
35
36

Other
6
6
7
6
4
4
6
6
6
8
8
8
6
5
5

No op.
5
2
3
7
2
*
5
1
*
4
3
*
3
4
2

***END***
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS
This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and the George Mason
University Schar School of Policy and Government. The poll includes interviews in
English and Spanish and is a random sample of Virginia adult residents.
This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact
they appear in this document. Voter registration, demographics, religious
questions and religious attendance are not shown. If a question was asked
base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the

order as
identity
of a reduced
group asked.

Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were
randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by “RV” indicate results among
registered voters, with “LV” indicating likely voters and other results are among
adults overall.
A dual frame landline and cellular phone telephone sample was generated using Random
Digit Dialing procedures. Interviewers called landline and cellular phone numbers,
first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final
sample included 585 interviews completed on landlines and 715 interviews completed via
cellular phones, including 352 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the
survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for
differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult
sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among
individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users according to National
Health Interview Survey commonwealth-level estimates for Virginia. Results are also
weighted match the demographic makeup of the population according to the latest
Current Population Survey Social and Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex,
education and region of the commonwealth.

6

 All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which
is 1.4 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s
deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision
due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a
design effect overstate their precision.
Group
All adults
Registered voters
Likely voters
Half sample

Unweighted
sample size
1,300
1,145
1,024
500

Error margin
+/- 3 points
3.5
3.5
5

The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which
recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they
produce.
Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post
conducts polls.

7