POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

Pottsgrove School District
Enrollment Projection Study
February 28, 2017

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
FutureThink in operation for over 10 years.
• Tracy Healy, Owner & President

• Woman-owned business, EDGE certified
• Has worked with over 1,000 districts
nationwide

• Specializes in enrollment projection and
demographic studies

• Provides a national perspective with
numerous case studies & lessons learned

Our mission is to empower the people and communities
with whom we work—enhancing the educational experience
through planning.

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
FutureThink Long-Term EP Clients
• Ohio School Facilities Commission – 18 years
• Olentangy Local Schools, OH – 18 years
• Williamsburg-James County City Public
Schools, VA – 10 years

• North Royalton City Schools, OH – 10 years
• New Albany-Plain Local Schools, OH – 8
years

Several “repeat” customers as well, including
Pottsgrove.

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
Enrollment Projection Considerations
•
•
•
•
•

Historical Enrollment
Birth Data
General Population Demographics
Housing Development
Survival Ratios
Pottsgrove School District 
Historical Enrollment

4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

pp. 4-7

Methodology

• Developed District-Wide Projections First
• Started with the cohort as primary method
• Incorporated housing development into the
cohort through development of projection ratios
• Then Developed By School Projections
• Compared and Reconciled with District-Wide

Enrollment Projections are both a Science and an Art.

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 9

Historical Enrollment – over past 10 years,
increase of 3%; over last 5 years, approximately
1%.
Pottsgrove School District
Historical Enrollment

Grade
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
K ‐ 12 Total

2007‐08
252
249
218
231
207
197
242
236
307
252
276
251
247
3,165

Source: Pottsgrove School District

2008‐09
235
250
241
238
249
238
239
251
241
324
254
223
202
3,185

2009‐10
255
245
246
236
245
259
241
242
250
244
319
258
275
3,315

2010‐11
247
277
247
238
248
239
263
248
246
262
248
320
259
3,342

2011‐12
226
253
266
241
250
236
240
260
254
244
258
241
332
3,301

2012‐13
243
246
247
267
251
245
246
241
258
249
238
261
241
3,233

2013‐14
243
256
248
229
255
242
237
241
244
259
254
228
260
3,196

2014‐15
258
248
251
249
229
255
247
241
243
249
260
251
233
3,214

2015‐16
253
252
241
253
244
235
257
260
244
239
259
253
256
3,246

2016‐17
243
258
262
251
253
255
234
257
249
236
243
261
263
3,265

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 9

Historical Enrollment
• K-2 – peaked this year at 763
• 3-5 – peaked in 2012-13 at 763
• 6-8 – peaked in 2007-08 at 785
• 9-12 – peaked in 2009-10 at 1,096
Pottsgrove School District
Historical Enrollment by Grade Group
Grade
K ‐ 2
3 ‐ 5
6 ‐ 8
9 ‐ 12
K ‐ 12 Total

2007‐08
719
635
785
1,026
3,165

Source: Pottsgrove School District

2008‐09
726
725
731
1,003
3,185

2009‐10
746
740
733
1,096
3,315

2010‐11
771
725
757
1,089
3,342

2011‐12
745
727
754
1,075
3,301

2012‐13
736
763
745
989
3,233

2013‐14
747
726
722
1,001
3,196

2014‐15
757
733
731
993
3,214

2015‐16
746
732
761
1,007
3,246

2016‐17
763
759
740
1,003
3,265

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 11

Birth Counts– low of 237 in 2014. Peaked in 2009 at
304. The 2011 count (this year’s K) was 260.
Pottsgrove School District
Live Birth Count
2000‐2014
Year
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Lower 
Upper 
West 
Total # of 
Pottsgrove  Pottsgrove  Pottsgrove 
Live Births
Township Township Township
148
54
39
241
153
50
43
246
176
75
47
298
151
55
46
252
159
62
43
264
172
63
44
279
178
69
41
288
175
53
61
289
158
65
60
283
176
68
60
304
150
65
61
276
141
70
49
260
151
80
54
285
149
75
48
272
135
59
43
237

Source: Pennsylvania Dept. of Health, Health Statistics & Research

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 12

Demographics– general indicators of growth and wealth.
General Demographic Information

Per Capita Income 
Median Household Income 
Persons Below Poverty 

Montgomery 
County
$41,699
$79,926
6.4%

Pennsylvania
$28,912
$53,115
13.5%

Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2014 5‐Year Estimates

Total Population
2000 Census
Montgomery County
  Pottstown Borough
  Lower Pottsgrove Township
  Upper Pottsgrove Township
  West Pottsgrove Township

750,977
21,859
11,213
4,102
3,815

2010 Census
799,874
22,377
12,059
5,315
3,874

2015 Estimate
812,970
22,586
12,153
5,399
3,890

Source: US Census, Census 2000 Summary File 1, 2010 Demographic Profile, 2015 ACS 5‐Year Estimates

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 14

ESRI Projections – .6% increase for ages 0-18
Pottsgrove School District
Total Population
  Age 0‐4
  Age 5‐9
  Age 10‐14
  Age 15‐18
  Total Age 0‐18
Median Age
Source:  ESRI

2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016‐21 Change 2016‐21 (%)
21,724
22,151
427
2.0%
1,433
1,393
‐40
‐2.8%
1,522
1,465
‐57
‐3.7%
1,504
1,588
84
5.6%
1,074
1,119
45
4.2%
5,533
5,565
32
0.6%
39.4
40.0
0.6
1.5%

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 15

ESRI Projections –Income, total family households
and family size all projected to increase.
Pottsgrove School District
Median Household Income
Average Household Income
Average Family Size
Total Family Households
Source:  ESRI

2016 Estimates 2021 Projections Change 2016‐21 Change 2016‐21 (%)
$79,741
$87,912
$8,171
10.2%
$91,562
$99,540
$7,978
8.7%
3.14
3.15
0.01
0.3%
5,875
5,951
76
1.3%

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 16

Population Projections, Total Population Growth/Decline
Red – <=0% (decline)
Orange – 0.1–2%
Yellow – 2.1–4%
Light Green – 4.1-6%
Dark Green – 6%+

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 17

Population Projections, Ages 5-18 Growth/Decline
Red – <=8%+ (loss)
Orange – 7.9–4% (loss)
Yellow – 3.9-0% (loss)
Light Green – 0.1-4%
Medium Green – 4.1-8%
Dark Green – 8%+

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 18

Population Projections, 2016 Median Age
Dark Green – <35
Light Green – 35.1 – 40.0
Yellow – 40.1 – 45.0
Orange – 45.1 – 50.0
Red – >50

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 19

Population Projections, 2021 Median Age
Dark Green – <35
Light Green – 35.1 – 40.0
Yellow – 40.1 – 45.0
Orange – 45.1 – 50.0
Red – >50

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 20

Population Projections, 2016 Median Household Income
Red – <$60,000
Orange – $60,001-$70K
Yellow – $70,001-$80k
Light Green – $80,001-$90k
Medium Green – $90,001$100K
Dark Green - >$100,000

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 21

Population Projections, 2021 Median Household Income
Red – <$60,000
Orange – $60,001-$70K
Yellow – $70,001-$80k
Light Green – $80,001-$90k
Medium Green – $90,001$100K
Dark Green - >$100,000

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 22

Building Permits – Total peaked in 2006, but signs
of recovery over the past 4 years.
# of Building Permits Issued for Single Family Dwellings
Year
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*

Pottstown Borough
54
29
25
0
26
2
41
46
21
19
9

Lower Pottsgrove Twp.
42
33
7
4
2
33
7
3
1
0
0

Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database
* through October 2016

Upper Pottsgrove Twp.
48
40
37
40
3
1
2
3
17
32
14

West Pottsgrove Twp.
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0

Montgomery County
1,911
1,599
1,274
643
879
668
915
1,000
892
1,006
865

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
Housing Development Projects
• Saratoga Green – 503 units
• 171 studio & 1 bedroom apartments
• 172 two-bedroom apartments
• 160 three-bedroom townhomes
• Spring Valley Farms – 178 units
• 3-4 bedroom homes
• Upper Pottsgrove – 58 units
• No approvals in place at this time.

p. 22

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
Survival Ratios– survival ratios reflect the
movement of students, grade by grade, year by
year.
from
to
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
2016

birth -> K

average
standard
deviation

K->1

1->2

2->3

3->4

4->5

5->6

6->7

7->8

8->9

9->10

p. 23

10->11

11->12

93.3%

99.2%

96.8%

109.2%

107.8%

115.0%

121.3%

103.7%

102.1%

105.5%

100.8%

80.8%

80.5%

96.6%

104.3%

98.4%

97.9%

102.9%

104.0%

101.3%

101.3%

99.6%

101.2%

98.5%

101.6%

123.3%

88.5%

108.6%

100.8%

96.7%

105.1%

97.6%

101.5%

102.9%

101.7%

104.8%

101.6%

100.3%

100.4%

78.5%

102.4%

96.0%

97.6%

105.0%

95.2%

100.4%

98.9%

102.4%

99.2%

98.5%

97.2%

103.8%

84.1%

108.8%

97.6%

100.4%

104.1%

98.0%

104.2%

100.4%

99.2%

98.0%

97.5%

101.2%

100.0%

85.9%

105.3%

100.8%

92.7%

95.5%

96.4%

96.7%

98.0%

101.2%

100.4%

102.0%

95.8%

99.6%

84.9%

102.1%

98.0%

100.4%

100.0%

100.0%

102.1%

101.7%

100.8%

102.0%

100.4%

98.8%

102.2%

91.7%

97.7%

97.2%

100.8%

98.0%

102.6%

100.8%

105.3%

101.2%

98.4%

104.0%

97.3%

102.0%

93.5%

102.0%

104.0%

104.1%

100.0%

104.5%

99.6%

100.0%

95.8%

96.7%

101.7%

100.8%

104.0%

88.53%

103.381%

98.85%

100.0%

102.06%

101.5%

103.1%

101.3%

100.5%

100.701%

100.554%

97.080%

101.743%

5.405%

3.601%

2.387%

4.425%

3.712%

5.719%

6.713%

2.206%

1.933%

2.851%

1.956%

6.063%

10.199%

Survival ratios for grades 1-12 equal or exceed
100% on average, except for 1>2 and 10>11.

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 24

Projected Enrollment – District-Wide, Most Likely
increase of 8%
Pottsgrove School District
Projected Enrollment
Grade
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
K ‐ 12 Total
Source: FutureThink

2016‐17 
Actual
243
258
262
251
253
255
234
257
249
236
243
261
263
3,265

2017‐18
274
249
261
267
251
259
257
239
259
249
241
241
268
3,315

2018‐19
261
281
252
265
267
257
261
262
241
259
254
239
247
3,346

2019‐20
228
268
284
255
265
273
259
266
264
240
264
251
245
3,362

2020‐21
245
234
272
284
255
271
275
264
269
264
245
262
258
3,398

2021‐22
256
251
236
271
284
261
273
281
266
268
269
243
269
3,428

2022‐23
255
262
255
236
271
291
263
279
283
266
274
267
249
3,451

2023‐24
255
262
266
254
236
277
293
268
281
283
271
271
274
3,491

2024‐25
254
261
264
265
254
242
280
299
270
281
288
269
278
3,505

2025‐26
253
260
264
264
265
260
244
285
301
270
286
286
276
3,514

2026‐27
253
259
264
264
264
271
262
248
288
301
275
284
294
3,527

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 24

Projected Enrollment
Increase of 13 students in Pre-K-2;
40 in grades 3-5;
58 in grades 6-8, and 151 in grades 9-12.
Pottsgrove School District
Projected Enrollment by Grade Group
Grade
K ‐ 2
3 ‐ 5
6 ‐ 8
9 ‐ 12
K ‐ 12 Total
Source: FutureThink

2016‐17 
Actual
763
759
740
1,003
3,265

2017‐18
784
777
755
999
3,315

2018‐19
794
789
764
999
3,346

2019‐20
780
793
789
1,000
3,362

2020‐21
751
810
808
1,029
3,398

2021‐22
743
816
820
1,049
3,428

2022‐23
772
798
825
1,056
3,451

2023‐24
783
767
842
1,099
3,491

2024‐25
779
761
849
1,116
3,505

2025‐26
777
789
830
1,118
3,514

2026‐27
776
799
798
1,154
3,527

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

pp. 25-26

Elementary School Projections
West Pottsgrove Elementary School
Historical Enrollment
Grade

K
1
2
3
4
5
Total

2007‐08

2008‐09

2009‐10

2010‐11

2011‐12

2012‐13

2013‐14

2014‐15

2015‐16

2016‐17

69
82
61
55
61
49

68
69
74
67
61
71

75
67
71
77
69
68

71
85
77
71
87
69

62
70
82
80
76
84

95
86
102

97
99
94

105
105
87

101
99
98

93
98
102

377

410

427

460

454

283

290

297

298

293

Source:  Pottsgove School District

West Pottsgrove Elementary School
Projected Enrollment ‐ Most Likely
Grade

2017‐18

2018‐19

2019‐20

2020‐21

2021‐22

2022‐23

2023‐24

2024‐25

2025‐26

2026‐27

K
1
2

103
94
96

98
104
92

86
99
102

92
87
98

96
93
85

96
97
92

96
97
96

96
97
95

95
96
95

95
96
95

Total

293

294

287

277

274

285

289

288

286

286

Source: FutureThink

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

pp. 25-26

Elementary School Projections
Ringing Rocks Elementary School
Historical Enrollment
Grade

K
1
2
3
4
5
Total

2007‐08

2008‐09

2009‐10

2010‐11

2011‐12

2012‐13

2013‐14

2014‐15

2015‐16

2016‐17

51
57
64
62
60
64

63
57
60
69
70
68

48
68
55
60
70
73

50
62
60
55
61
63

54
61
62
59
56
60

148
160
145

146
157
154

153
143
164

152
153
143

150
160
160

358

387

374

351

352

453

457

460

448

470

Source:  Pottsgove School District

Ringing Rocks Elementary School
Projected Enrollment ‐ Most Likely
Grade

2017‐18

2018‐19

2019‐20

2020‐21

2021‐22

2022‐23

2023‐24

2024‐25

2025‐26

2026‐27

K
1
2

171
155
165

163
177
160

142
169
182

153
147
174

160
158
151

159
165
163

159
165
170

158
164
169

158
164
169

158
163
169

Total

491

500

493

474

469

487

494

491

491

490

Source: FutureThink

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

pp. 25-26

Elementary School Projections
Lower Pottsgrove Elementary School
Historical Enrollment
Grade

2007‐08

2008‐09

2009‐10

2010‐11

2011‐12

2012‐13

2013‐14

2014‐15

2015‐16

2016‐17

K
1
2
3
4
5

132
110
93
114
86
84

104
124
107
102
118
99

132
110
120
99
106
118

126
130
110
112
100
107

110
122
122
102
118
92

267
251
245

229
255
242

249
229
255

253
244
235

251
253
255

Total

619

654

685

685

666

763

726

733

732

759

Source:  Pottsgove School District

Lower Pottsgrove Elementary School
Projected Enrollment ‐ Most Likely
Grade

2017‐18

2018‐19

2019‐20

2020‐21

2021‐22

2022‐23

2023‐24

2024‐25

2025‐26

2026‐27

3
4
5

267
251
259

265
267
257

255
265
273

284
255
271

271
284
261

236
271
291

254
236
277

265
254
242

264
265
260

264
264
271

Total

777

789

793

810

816

798

767

761

789

799

Source: FutureThink

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 28

Enrollment Projections – Low, Moderate, High
• Low Projection
• Higher inflation/interest rates than current market
• Low yield rate for new housing (.25 student per unit)
• Offsets what would be natural decline
• Most Likely (Moderate) Projection
• Steady inflation/interest rates (similar to current market)
• Moderate yield rate for new housing (.5 to .6 student per
unit)
• Increased student enrollment
• High Projection
• Lower inflation/interest rates than current market
• Moderate yield rate for new housing (.75 student per unit)
• Increased student enrollment

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 29

Projected Enrollment – District-Wide, Low
increase of less than 1%
Pottsgrove School District
Projected Enrollment ‐ Low

Grade
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
K ‐ 12 Total
Source: FutureThink

2016‐17 
Actual
243
258
262
251
253
255
234
257
249
236
243
261
263
3,265

2017‐18
267
248
258
264
250
256
254
237
257
246
241
237
266
3,281

2018‐19
255
272
248
260
262
252
254
257
237
253
250
234
241
3,275

2019‐20
222
259
272
249
258
265
250
257
257
234
258
243
239
3,263

2020‐21
239
226
259
273
248
261
263
253
257
253
238
251
248
3,269

2021‐22
249
243
226
261
271
250
259
266
253
253
257
231
256
3,275

2022‐23
249
254
243
227
259
274
248
262
266
249
258
250
236
3,275

2023‐24
248
253
254
245
226
261
272
251
262
262
254
251
255
3,294

2024‐25
247
252
253
255
243
228
260
275
251
258
267
247
255
3,291

2025‐26
247
252
252
255
253
245
226
263
275
247
262
259
252
3,288

2026‐27
246
251
252
254
253
256
244
229
263
271
252
255
264
3,290

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT

p. 30

Projected Enrollment – District-Wide, High
increase of 14%
Pottsgrove School District
Projected Enrollment ‐ High
Grade
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
K ‐ 12 Total
Source: FutureThink

2016‐17 
Actual
243
258
262
251
253
255
234
257
249
236
243
261
263
3,265

2017‐18
272
251
264
269
255
262
259
239
260
250
243
245
269
3,338

2018‐19
260
281
257
271
272
264
266
265
242
261
257
245
253
3,394

2019‐20
226
268
288
263
275
282
267
272
267
243
268
259
252
3,430

2020‐21
244
234
275
295
267
284
286
274
275
268
250
270
267
3,489

2021‐22
254
251
239
281
299
277
288
293
277
276
276
252
279
3,542

2022‐23
253
262
257
245
285
310
280
295
296
277
283
278
259
3,580

2023‐24
253
262
268
264
249
296
314
287
298
297
285
286
287
3,646

2024‐25
252
261
268
275
268
258
300
321
290
299
305
288
295
3,680

2025‐26
252
260
267
275
279
277
261
307
325
291
308
308
296
3,706

2026‐27
251
260
267
274
278
289
281
267
310
326
299
311
317
3,730

 POTTSGROVE SCHOOL DISTRICT
Conclusion/Considerations

•
•
•
•

Birth counts and K enrollment
Overall elementary enrollment
Additional job creation
Relationship between new housing development &
new students (yield factors)
• Any other changes that may impact enrollment

p. 31

      

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