This Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone September 27-30, 2016, among a random sample of 906 residents of Maryland. Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI, Inc of New York, NY. LV=Likely voters RV=Registered voters (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) *= less than 0.5 percent 1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential election in November: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? Probably vote 7 5 5 Chances 50/50 5 2 2 Less than that 2 2 * Certain Probably to vote vote 9/22/16 RV* 83 7 *Washington Post-ABC News Chances 50/50 6 Less than that 3 9/30/16 RV 10/15/12 RV 10/20/08 RV Certain to vote 84 91 91 Don't think will vote (vol.) 1 * * Already voted (vol.) NA * 1 No Op. 1 0 * Compare to national: Don't think will vote (vol.) * Already voted (vol.) 0 No op. * 2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the presidential election were being held today and the candidates were [(Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine, the Democrats), (Donald Trump and Mike Pence, the Republicans)], [(Gary Johnson and Bill Weld of the Libertarian Party) and (Jill Stein and Ajamu Baraka of the Green Party)], for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward [(Clinton and Kaine), (Trump and Pence)], [(Johnson and Weld) or (Stein and Baraka)]? NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE AMONG LIKELY VOTERS AND REGISTERED VOTERS: Hillary Clinton 9/30/16 LV 63 9/30/16 RV 59 3. the Van the Donald Trump 27 26 Gary Johnson 4 6 Jill Stein 2 3 Other (vol.) * * None of these (vol.) * 2 Would not vote (vol.) 0 1 No opinion 2 2 (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Now turning to the U.S. Senate election in Maryland, if 2016 election for the U.S. Senate were being held today, would you vote for (Chris Hollen, the Democrat), (Kathy Szeliga), the Republican), or Margaret Flowers of Green Party? Which one would you lean toward right now? NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE AMONG LIKELY VOTERS AND REGISTERED VOTERS: Chris Van Hollen 9/30/16 LV 58 9/30/16 RV 55 Kathy Szeliga 29 29 Margaret Flowers 5 7 Other (vol.) * * None of these (vol.) * 1 Would not vote (vol.) 1 1 No opinion 6 8 4. Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [ITEM]? 9/30/16 – Summary Table Favorable Unfavorable No opinion a. The Democratic Party 51 37 12 b. The Republican Party 25 63 12 c. Rushern Baker 10 15 75 d. John Delaney 16 12 72 e. Kevin Kamenetz 13 12 75 f. Peter Franchot 24 12 63 *Full sample asked items a and b; half sample asked items c-d; other half asked items e-f. Trend: a. The Democratic Party Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 9/30/16 51 37 12 10/11/15 51 35 14 6/17/98 55 21 24 *6/17/98: “I am going to read to you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person or group, or perhaps you don't know enough to say: The Democratic Party” b. The Republican Party Favorable Unfavorable No opinion 9/30/16 25 63 12 10/11/15 37 51 13 6/17/98 39 34 27 *6/17/98: “I am going to read to you a list of names. For each, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person or group, or perhaps you don't know enough to say: The Republican Party” c. No trend d. John Delaney 9/30/16 2/16/14 Favorable 16 13 Unfavorable 12 10 No opinion 72 77 Unfavorable 12 8 11 No opinion 63 72 71 e. No trend f. Peter Franchot 9/30/16 5/6/10 RV 10/20/08 RV Favorable 24 20 18 5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Larry Hogan is handling his job as governor of Maryland? 9/30/16 4/3/16 -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 71 34 36 66 30 36 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 18 11 7 19 11 8 No op 11 15 10/11/15 2/8/15 61 42 28 18 33 24 22 24 13 14 9 10 18 34 14 21 16 18 16 21 20 17 14 12 may vote…” 27 33 33 31 39 34 37 37 39 40 48 39 41 41 36 36 33 34 37 36 14 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 16 18 34 27 28 28 21 21 17 17 21 19 11 7 10 9 9 9 11 12 10 11 30 21 21 25 36 42 9 16 14 29 38 41 Compare to: Martin O’Malley 10/5/14 RV 41 2/16/14 55 2/24/13 49 10/15/12 RV 49 1/26/12 55 10/22/10 RV* 55 9/26/10 57 5/6/10 54 10/20/08 RV 53 10/22/07 53 *“Regardless of how you Bob Ehrlich 10/26/06 LV 6/25/06 RV 1/7/04 All 55 56 62 42 41 28 19 21 17 23 20 11 3 3 10 Parris Glendening: 10/24/02 LV 10/22/98 LV 6/17/98 LV 37 54 55 58 40 36 22 21 19 37 19 18 4 6 9 6. I know it’s a long way away, but thinking about Maryland’s governor’s race in 2018, if Larry Hogan ran for re-election as governor, do you think you would vote for him or for the candidate nominated by the Democratic Party? 9/30/16 9/30/16 RV Hogan 45 46 Democratic nominee 30 30 Other (Vol.) 2 1 No opinion 23 22 7. Do you think [ITEM] is a (different kind of Republican) or do you think he is a (typical Republican)? (IF DIFFERENT) Is he different in a good way or a bad way? (IF TYPICAL) Is that a good thing or a bad thing? 9/30/16 – Summary Table a. Larry Hogan b. Donald Trump ----Different--NET Good Bad 45 41 3 78 22 55 ----Typical----NET Good Bad 40 24 15 15 2 13 Trend: a. Larry Hogan --- Different ----- Typical NET Good Bad NET Good 9/30/16 45 41 3 40 24 10/11/15* 50 45 5 32 14 *”(IF DIFFERENT) Is that a good thing or a b. No trend --No Bad opinion 15 16 19 18 bad thing?” No opinion 16 7 8. As you may know, Larry Hogan is a Republican but said he will not vote for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump. Do you approve or disapprove of Hogan’s decision to not support Trump? 9/30/16 Approve 75 Disapprove 17 No opinion 8 9. (AMONG LEANED REPUBLICANS) Do you think Republican leaders should speak out against Trump when they disagree with his views, or should they avoid criticizing the party’s nominee even when they disagree with him? 9/30/16 Should speak out 61 Should avoid criticizing 36 No opinion 3 Compare to national: Should Should avoid speak out criticizing 6/23/16* 62 35 *Washington Post-ABC News No opinion 3 10. As you may have heard, Governor Hogan ordered all Maryland public schools to extend summer recess until after Labor Day starting next year. Do you approve or disapprove of Hogan’s order? 9/30/16 Approve 74 Disapprove 16 No opinion 9 11. (IF DISAPPROVE OF HOGAN’S ORDER) What if you heard that supporters of starting school after Labor Day say it would help the economy in Maryland beach towns like Ocean City by extending students’ summer vacation. Would you still disapprove of starting school after Labor Day, or would you now approve of this? 9/30/16 Still disapprove 82 Now approve 13 No opinion 5 12. (IF APPROVE OF HOGAN’S ORDER) What if you heard that opponents of starting school after Labor Day say it will force schools to cut back on spring break or other holidays in order to ensure students are in school for enough days. Would you still approve of starting school after Labor Day, or would you now disapprove of this? 9/30/16 Still approve 82 Now disapprove 16 No opinion 2 10/11/12 NET TABLE: 9/30/16 ---------Approve at first---------Still Disapp after no NET Approve opposing argument op. 74 61 12 2 -------Disapprove at first------Approve after Still No NET supp. argument disapp. op. 16 2 13 1 No opin 9 13. Do you think the starting date for Maryland public schools should be (decided for the entire state by the Governor) or (decided by individual school districts)? 9/30/16 Decided for entire state by Gov. 52 Decided by indiv. school districts 41 No opinion 6 14. Since 2010, have you visited one of the state’s casinos such as Maryland Live, the Horseshoe in Baltimore, or others around the state, or not? 9/30/16 Yes 31 No 69 No opinion * Compare to: (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Have you visited a casino to play slot machines in Maryland in the past year, or not? (IF YES) Was that in the past week, the past month, or before that? 10/15/12 RV ------------------ Yes ------------------NET Past week Past month Before that 19 1 5 13 No 81 No opinion * 15. Later this year, the MGM National Harbor casino is scheduled to open in Prince George’s County. Do you think you will visit this casino frequently, occasionally, rarely or never? 9/30/16 ----------More often----------NET Frequently Occasionally 12 2 10 -----Less often----NET Rarely Never 87 24 63 No opinion 1 Compare to: (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If there were a casino at National Harbor in Prince George’s County, how often do you think you would go there to gamble: frequently, occasionally, rarely or never? 10/15/12 RV --------- More often ---------NET Frequently Occasionally 11 1 10 ---- Less often ---NET Rarely Never 88 23 65 No opinion 1 16. Overall, do you think the growth of casinos in Maryland has been a (good) thing or a (bad) thing for the state? Good Bad Both Neither No thing thing (vol.) (vol.) opinion 9/30/16 47 27 4 5 17 2/8/15* 53 38 2 2 5 *2/8/15: “Since 2008, voters have approve of expanding casino gambling in Maryland. Overall, do you think this has been a (good) thing or a (bad) thing for the state?” Compare to: In 2008, Maryland voters approved slot machine casinos at five locations in the state. Overall, do you think having slot machine casinos in Maryland has been a (good) thing or a (bad) thing for the state? 10/15/12 LV 10/15/12 RV 1/26/12 RV 1/26/12 9/26/10* Good thing 51 52 54 54 56 Bad thing 28 27 25 27 31 Both (vol.) 1 1 1 1 4 Neither (vol.) 5 5 6 5 2 No opinion 15 16 13 12 7 * “… and the first facility is scheduled to open next week.” 17. In general, do you favor or oppose legalizing the possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use? 9/30/16 2/16/14 Favor 61 49 Oppose 34 43 No opinion 5 7 18. As you may have heard, the Maryland government is issuing licenses for companies to grow and process marijuana which people can purchase if they obtain a medical recommendation. Do you think you or a close friend or family member would seek to obtain a medical recommendation to purchase marijuana when it becomes available, or not? If yes: Is that a close friend of family member? 9/30/16 ---------------Yes-----------------------Close friend or Both NET Respondent family member (vol.) 37 10 18 9 No 58 No opinion 5 On a different issue, 19. [FIRST PORTION ONLY ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE: Thinking about energy needs and environmental concerns in Maryland,] would you support or oppose the use of fracking in Maryland, a drilling method that uses high-pressure water and chemicals to extract oil and natural gas from underground rock formations? Support Oppose No opinion 9/30/16 27 60 13 2/8/15* 36 56 8 *2/8/15: “Thinking about energy needs and environmental concerns in Maryland, would you support or oppose the use of fracking, a drilling method that uses high-pressure water and chemicals to extract oil and natural gas from underground rock formations?” 20. Do you think fracking would or would not provide significant benefits to Maryland’s economy? 9/30/16 Would 43 Would not 40 No opinion 17 21. Do you think fracking would or would not pose significant risks to the environment in Maryland? 9/30/16 Would 66 Would not 19 No opinion 15 PARTYID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: [partyid] 9/30/16 4/3/16 10/11/15 2/8/15 10/5/14 2/16/14 2/24/13 10/15/12 1/26/12 Democrat 43 44 40 46 43 42 45 46 44 Republican 19 19 20 18 17 18 18 20 19 Independent 32 30 33 29 29 31 31 25 30 Other 4 4 5 5 7 4 4 5 3 No opinion 2 2 2 2 4 5 2 5 2 10/22/10 RV 9/26/10 5/6/10 10/20/08 RV 10/22/07 10/26/06 RV 49 46 44 50 48 50 21 21 22 24 19 28 25 25 27 25 26 20 4 5 4 1 7 2 1 4 3 * 1 * ** END ** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and The University of Maryland's Center for American Politics and Citizenship within the College of Behavioral and Social Science's Department of Government and Politics." The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document. Demographics and religious identity questions are not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Questions that contain parenthetical phrases indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Trended references to results with “LV” or “RV” indicate results among likely voters or registered voters. A dual frame landline and cellular phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures. Interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 407 interviews completed on landlines and 499 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 218 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. Interviewers called landlines and asked to interview the youngest male or youngest female who is at home at the time, with the male requested 75 percent of the time. Interviewers calling cellular phones interviewed the responding individual if they were eligible to participate. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users. Results are weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and race/ethnicity according to the 2014 American Community Survey by age, race/ethnicity, sex and education, as well as the share of adults who are cell phone-only, landlineonly and dual-users according to the 2015 National Health Interview Survey. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.3 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All adults Registered voters Likely voters Half sample Unweighted sample size 906 808 706 446-460 Error margin +/- 3.5 points 4 4 5-5.5 Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls.