Dennis Menendez From: Sent: Wednesday, December 14, 2016 12:19 PM To: Donal O'Shea Cc: Lee Haworth Subject: Re: Question Great, I will forward this to him. It is Judge Lee Haworth and I think you two have already met. (Everyone seems to have loved your letter!) Thanks, Charles Sent from my iPhone On Dec 14, 2016, at 11:40 AM, Donal O'Shea < wrote: Dear Charles, Absolutely no problem. Happy to do it. Don On Wed, Dec 14, 2016 at 11:06 AM, Charles Williams wrote: Donal, Would you have a problem speaking -unof?cially- with one of our judges about the data analysis issues and methodology used in the Sarasota Herald Tribune articles? Charles Sent from my iPhone Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 318 on i?iday, and right now until about 11PM also works. to call you alternatively, my cell phone is 14487-41 0. Don On Wed, Dec 14, 2016 at 1:47 PM, Lee Haworth 'i wrote: Greeting Doc. Thanks for your brave defense of a judge who should need no defending. There was a glaring oversight by the investigative reporters that disproves the accusation that systemic bias in sentencing is caused by the judges. The accurate information got glossed over in the rush to sensationalize the issue. I?m available to discuss this by phone or will be pleased to come to your of?ce. Just let me know a convenient time. My cell number is below. Regards, Senior Circuit Judge Lee E. Haworth N. Silvertooth Judicial Center 2002 Ringling Blvd. Sarasota, FL 34237 Cell. Donal O'Shea President 314 Dennis Menendez From: Donal O'Shea Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2016 1:10 PM To: Lee Haworth Subject: Re: Bias on the Bench Lee, Just tried your number twice with different cell phones (413-210-7487 and 941 ?779-465 W111 try again in a few minutes. Don On Thu, Dec 15, 2016 at 1:05 PM, Lee Haworth wrote: Tried the number 914L418 (with area code 941 too) Keep getting ?Nicole.? Is this the right Want to try mine? Senior Circuit Judge Lee E. Haworth N. Silvertooth Judicial Center 2002 Ringling Blvd. Sarasota, FL 34237 941-861-7842 From: Donal O'Shea [mailtozdoshea@ncf.eduj Sent: Wednesday, December 14, 2016 9:22 PM To: Lee Haworth Subject: Re: Bias on the Bench Hi Lee, Sorry that I am just getting to e-mail now. The article is a real hatchet job. Are you free tomorrow any time from 1?2 or from 4-5:30? I've some times 313 12th Circuit Court Administrator Judge N. Silvertooth Judicial Center 2002 Ringling Blvd. Sarasota, Fl. 34237 941-861?7800 QMM {fax} wsmith {'69 iud12. ?courts. oru From: Donal O'Shea [mailtozdosheard-ncfedu] Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2016 5:44 PM To: Lee Haworth Walt Smith Cc: Patrick McDonald Bradley Thiessen Sarah Walcutt-Febish Subject: Bias forum Dear Lee and Walt, I write to con?rm that New College would be happy to host the dialog on race, the courts, and what solutions are needed that Judge Williams called for in his response the Herald-Tribune Article "Bias on the Bench" I would think the best venue would be Sainer Hall and will copy in Jeff Thomas and Sarah Walcutt-Febish who will be able to able with logistics (once you ?gure out what those might be). I also copy in Pat McDonald (Director of our Data Science Program) and Brad Thiessen (Director of Institutional Performance Assessment) who may be able to help with issues of data analysis (I have not had a chance to ask them, and if they can't, they may be able to help get some data science grad students). Pat, Brad, Jeff and Sarah meet Lee and Walt. Lee is Senior 12th Circuit Judge Lee Haworth and Walt is 12th Circuit Court Administrator Walt Smith. Lee and Walt, meet Pat, Brad, Jeff and Sarah. 287 5 Dennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Friday, December 16, 2016 11:43 AM To: Donal O?Shea; Lee Haworth Cc: Patrick McDonald; Bradley Thiessen; Sarah Walcutt-Febish Subject: RE: Bias forum Thank you so much for your support and offer to host a 2017 dialog on bias in sentencing. i will get back with you after the holidays to discuss some dates and then we can organize a good program. As discussed on our phone call, we think the methodology and the examination of average sentences based on scoresheet scores and race of the defendant is flawed methodology. However, we do not have the expertise to describe why that is so, but we think it is important, particularly when the conclusions drawn from it are so socially important, to make that point with the paper (and the readers). If it is possible, and you think some from your staff or a grad student, etc. could either write something up that we could attribute to you or go ahead and send it to the SHT, we would be very grateful. Thank you again and have a happy holiday! Walt Walt Smith 12th Circuit Court Administrator Judge N. Silvertooth Judiciai Center 2002 Ringling Blvd. Sarasota, FL 34237 941-861-7800 941?861-790ti {fax} From: Donal O?Shea Sent: Thursday, December 15, 2016 5:44 PM To: Lee Haworth Walt Smith Cc: Patrick McDonald Bradley Thiessen Sarah Walcutt-Febish Subject: Bias forum Dear Lee and Walt, I write to con?rm that New College would be happy to host the dialog on race, the courts, and what solutions are needed that Judge Williams called for in his response the Herald?Tribune Article "Bias on the Bench" I would think the best venue would be Sainer Hall and will copy in Jeff Thomas and Sarah Walcutt-Febish who will be able to able with logistics (once you ?gure out what those might be). I also copy in Pat McDonald (Director of our Data Science Program) and Brad Thiessen (Director of Institutional Performance Assessment) who may be able to help with issues of data analysis (I have not had a chance to ask them, and if they can't, they may be able to help get some data science grad students). 310 Pat, Brad, Jeff and Sarah meet Lee and Walt. Lee is Senior 12th Circuit Judge Lee Haworth and Walt is 12th Circuit Court Administrator Walt Smith. Lee and Walt, meet Pat, Brad, Jeff and Sarah. Best, Don Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 311 Dennis Menendez From: Donal O'Shea Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 10:42 AM To: Patrick McDonald Cc: Walt Smith; Lee Haworth; Bradley Thiessen Subject: Re: Bias forum Fabulous. Thanks Pat. Don On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 10:46 PM, Patrick McDonald wrote: Dear Lee, Walt, Don and Brad, Following a carefully reading of the series, I drafted and sent the attached letter to the SHT. Given access to the data, we have the expertise to do the required analysis. Best wishes for. the holidays, Pat On Fri, Dec 16, 2016 at 11:42 AM, Walt Smith wrote: f, Thank you so much for your support and offer to host a 201? dialog on bias in sentencing. i will get back with you after the holidays to discuss some dates and then we can organize a good program. As discussed on our phone call, we think the methodology and the examination of average sentences based on scoresheet scores and race of the defendant is flawed methodology. However, we do not have the expertise to describe why that is so, but we think it is important, particularly when the conclusions drawn from it are so socially important, to make that point with the paper (and the readers). If it is possible, and you think some from your staff or a grad student, etc. couid either write something up that we could attribute to you or go ahead and send it to the SHT. we would be very grateful. Thank you again and have a happy holiday! Wa it Walt Smith 286 Dennis Menendez From: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 3:57 PM To: Shelley Wilbur Subject: RE: FW: FW: Meeting with Judge Williams It?s regarding community engagement, and they can meet at Donal?s office. i?ll send out a confirmation e?mail to everyone. Thanks again for all of your help! Lisa From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 3:44 PM To: Lisa Subject: Re: FW: FW: Meeting with Judge Williams Sure. What's the topic? And, will they meet here? Thank you, Shelley On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 3:42 PM, Lisa udge-Schustik wrote: Hi Shelley, Can we have Friday, 1/20 at 10:00 am. for one hour? Thanks so much! Lisa From: William Johnston Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 3:32 PM To: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: Re: FW: Meeting with Judge Williams 294 I am free all of now. Mornings are generally better for me. On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 2:39 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Dear Bill, Friday, January 20th works for Judge Williams and Donal. Does it also work for you? If so, do you have a preferred time? Thank you, Lisa From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 2:06 PM To: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: Re: Meeting with Judge Williams Hi Lisa, Dr. O'Shea has all day January 20 open and January 19 from 10-3. Let me know if any of these times work. I hOpe you have a great holiday. Shelley Shelley Wilbur 295 Senior Administrative Assistant Of?ce of the President New Cottage of Florida 5800 Bay Shore Road Sarasota. 34243 9&4100 phone 9113874101 fax On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 1:59 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Dear Shelley, i hope this unusually-warm-for?Florida holiday season finds you very well! Judge Williams would like to meet with Donal and William Johnston in the weeks following the New Year. i thought Donal?s schedule would be a good place to start on this effort, since I believe you are either taking, or will be taking your Winter break. All my best, Lisa M. Fudge, Judicial Assistant to Charles E. Williams, Chief Judge State of Florida, Twelfth Judicial Circuit Desoto, Manatee Sarasota Counties, Florida 2002 Ringling Boulevard Sarasota, Florida 34237 941.861.7942 941 .86i .79 i3 (fax) 296 Dennis Menendez From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 3:44 PM To: Lisa Fudge?Schustik Subject: Re: FW: FW: Meeting with Judge Williams Sure. What's the topic? And, will they meet here? Thank you, Shelley On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 3:42 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Hi Shelley, Can we have Friday, 1/20 at 10:00 am. for one hour? Thanks so much! Lisa From: William Johnston [mailtozwhiteshoesSQ?gmaiLeomI Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 3:32 PM To: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: Re: FW: Meeting with Judge Williams I am free all of now. Mornings are generally better for me. On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 2:39 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Dear Bill, 298 Friday, January 20th works for Judge Williams and Donal. Does it also work for you? if so, do you have a preferred time? Thank you, Lisa From: Shelley Wilbur [mailto:mwilbur@ ncf.edu] Sent: Monday, December 19, 2016 2:06 PM To: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: Re: Meeting with Judge Williams Hi Lisa, Dr. O'Shea has all day January 20 open and January 19 from 10-3. Let me know if any of these times work. I hope you have a great holiday. Shelley Shelley Wilbur 299 Dennis Menendez From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 8:32 AM To: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Cc: William Johnston Subject: Re: January 10, 2017 Meeting Confirmation Perfect! Thank you! Shelley On Mon, Dec 19, 2016 at 5:01 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Hello, This message con?rms that Dr. O?Shea, Bill Johnston and Judge Williams will meet on Friday, January 20, 2017 at 10:00 am. for one hour at Donal?s of?ce. Bill: have you been there before? All my best, Lisa M. Fudge, Judicial Assistant to Charles E. Williams, Chief Judge State of Florida, Twelfth Judicial Circuit Desoto, Manatee Sarasota Counties, Florida 2002 Ringling Boulevard Sarasota, Florida 34237 941 .861 .7942 941.861 .7913 (fax) 290 Dennis Menendez From: Charles Williams . Sent: Thursday, December 22, 2016 1:52 PM To: Donal O'Shea Cc: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: Confidential Donal, I forwarded you the response from Michael Braga of the Sarasota Herald Tribune. They would like to discuss sharing their information -probably sometime in early January. Before we do that I would like to meet with you and/or Dr. McDonald to discuss how to best proceed in requesting the data and what you are comfortable having your faculty and staff do. I will have Lisa try to coordinate a meeting with you at New College when you return after January 7th from holiday break. Thanks, Charles Sent from my iPhone On Dec 22, 2016, at 11:07 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: Me too (that is, I expect them to say no). I talked with Walt, and he was going to do the same public records requests that had done, and then turn the data over to us. Don On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 10:54 AM, Charles Williams wrote: Donal just an FYI I asked the Sarasota Herald if they would consider having New College do an independent analysis of their data. I fully expect them to say no. CEW Sent from my iPhone On Dec 20, 2016, at 10:50 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: I am away from campus until late evening Sat, Jan 7. I will be be checking e-mail regularly, but re3ponses may be delayed until after I return. Don Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 280 Donal O?Shea Presidem New College of Flow. ida :5 Donal O?Shea President New College of Florida 281 Best, Don Banal O?Shea President New College hil?clikmald Director 0fData Science Prolessm? of Mai?hemalics New College of Florida Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 288 Dennis Menendez From: Sent: To: Cc: Subject: Donal, Charles Williams Thursday, December 22, 2016 1:52 PM Donal O'Shea Lisa Fudge-Schustik Con?den?al I forwarded you the response from Michael Braga of the Sarasota Herald Tribune. They would like to discuss sharing their information -probably sometime in early January. Before we do that I would like to meet with you and/or Dr. McDonald to discuss how to best proceed in requesting the data and what you are comfortable having your faculty and staff do. I will have Lisa try to coordinate a meeting with you at New College when you return after January 7th from holiday break. Thanks, Charles Sent from my iPhone On Dec 22, 2016, at 1 1:07 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: Me too (that is, I expect them to say no). I talked with Walt, and he was going to do the same public records requests that had done, and then turn the data over to us. Don On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 10:54 AM, Charles Willia wrote: Donal just an FYI I asked the Sarasota Herald if t1: sider having New College do an independent analysis of their data. I fully expect th CEW Sent from my iPhone On Dec 20, 2016, at 10:50 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: >1 am away from campus until late evening Sat, Jan 7. I will be be checking e-mail regularly, but responses may be delayed until after I return. Don Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 280 Dennis Menendez From: Sent: To: Cc: Subject: Thanks Donal! Charles Sent from my iPhone Charles Williams Friday, December 23, 2016 9:17 AM Donal O'Shea Lisa Fudge-Schustik; Shelley Wilbur Re: Ashley Cortez: Offender falsely depicted - Opinion - Sarasota Herald-Tribune - Sarasota, FL On Dec 23, 2016, at 9:09 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: Charles, I was surprised that Mike Braga was so forthcoming (although he is not sharing the actual data they got, merely the query of one place). I forwarded your letter and his reply to the NCF Data Science folks (Pat McDonald, Brad Thiessen, and Mike Sutherland). We'll get as many as possible together with you in early Jan. We probably should get Lisa and Shelley to work on setting up. I'll COpy both. Don On Fri, Dec 23, 2016 at 8:35 AM Charles Williams wrote: Yes. I am planning a meeting with you when you return to discuss assisting us in analyzing their methodology. They have agreed to allow New College to review their work. Charles Sent from my iPhone On Dec 23, 2016, at 8:32 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: Hard to believe the carelessness. I hadn't realized that the article had spread so far on social media. Don On Fri, Dec 23, 2016 at 6:34 AM, Charles Williams wrote I 1,222/ashle v-cortgg-gi?ender? falsel V-d__epicted 243 From: Braga, Michael Sent: Thursday, December 22, 2016 1:24 PM To: Lisa Fudge?Schustik Cc: Tom.trvon@heraldtribune.com; Emilv.lecoz@herladtribune.com; Brian.ries@heraldtribune.com; Dennis Menendez Subject: Re: From Judge Williams: Request for Data and Methodology Used Dear Judge Williams, I am the investigations editor of the Sarasota Herald-Tribune and would be more than willing to talk to Dr. McDonald or anyone else about the methodology we used for our Bias on the bench project. I can also show your IT people at the clerk of court's of?ce how we eliminated duplicates from the OBTS system and how we calculated average sentences. I'm on vacation until the end of the year, but can be reached on my cell phone at 941-586-2451. If we could set up a meeting or phone call for early January, that would work best for me. In the meantime, can you ?nd out whether your OBTS data sits on a SQL Server? If so, it will be relatively easy for you to replicate the work we did to determine sentencing patterns of judges. The Department of Corrections data would also be relatively easy for you to get and I will explain how when we get together. All the best. Michael Braga On Thu, Dec 22, 2016 at 12:00 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Good morning, Please ?nd a letter from Judge Williams attached to this message in .pdf format. Sincerely, Lisa M. Fudge, Judicial Assistant to Charles E. Williams, Chief Judge State of Florida, Twelfth Judicial Circuit Desoto, Manatee Sarasota Counties, Florida 2002 Ringling Boulevard Sarasota, Florida 34237 941.861.7942 941.861.7913 (tax) This message may contain confidential and/or privileged information. if you are not the intended recipient Dennis Menendez From: Sent To: Cc: Subject: Charles, Donal O'Shea Friday, December 23, 2016 9:10 AM Charles Williams Lisa Fudge?Schustik; Shelley Wilbur Re: Ashley Cortez: Offender falsely depicted - Opinion - Sarasota Herald-Tribune - Sarasota, FL I was surprised that Mike Braga was so forthcoming (although he is not sharing the actual data they got, merely the query of one place). I forwarded your letter and his reply to the NCF Data Science folks (Pat McDonald, Brad Thiessen, and Mike Sutherland). We'll get as many as possible together with you in early Jan. We probably should get Lisa and Shelley to work on setting up. I'll copy both. Don On Fri, Dec 23, 2016 at 8:35 AM Charles Williams wrote: Yes. I am planning a meeting with you when you return to discuss assisting us in analyzing their methodology. They have agreed to allow New College to review their work. Charles Sent from my iPhone On Dec 23, 2016, at 8:32 AM, Donal O'Shea wrote: Hard to believe the carelessness. I hadn?t realized that the article had spread so far on social media. Don On Fri, Dec 23, 2016 at 6:34 AM, Charles Williams wrote: union/20 16 222fashlex -cortez-oRender?false] v-depicted Sent from my iPhone 245 Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 246 Dennis Menendez I I I I I From: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Sent: Wednesday, January 4, 2017 2:40 PM To: Shelley Wilbur Subject: RE: Meeting with Dr. O'Shea and Professor Patrick McDonald Hi Shelley, Welcome back! Let?s book Noon on 1/18. 1 have not reached out to Pat McDonald. If you could do so, that would be wonderful. i?m going to release the other dates on the calendars. Thank you, Lisa From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Wednesday, January 4, 2017 12:07 PM To: Lisa Fudge?Schustik Subject: Re: Meeting with Dr. O'Shea and Professor Patrick McDonald Hi Lisa, I'm just getting back in the of?ce. Noon on 1/18 will work on this end. Don and Brad Thiessen are available. I'm trying to ?nd out what's going on with Mike Sutherland. I?m not sure what his schedule is. Have you been in touch with Pat McDonald or should I reach out to him. Please let me know. Thanks, Shelley .S?lelqr Wilbur Swim time at the l?remlcm i?scu? (Villa?y'i? all I Ipndu 53th,! BM Show Road Sarasota 3-1215 4X7 plumc 9-H 487-1101 tin On Tue, Dec 27, 2016 at 9:21 AM, Lisa udge-Schustik wrote: Hi Shelley, I?m in the of?ce today, and. then out for the rest of the week. I?m writing to follow up on Dr. O?Shea?s e?mail to Judge Williams from 12/23 where he suggests that we should coordinate for Brad Thiessen and Mike Sutherland at the meeting if possible. The dates below are still good on our end. 142 All my best, Lisa From: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Sent: Thursday, December 22, 2016 2:44 PM To: 'Shelley Wilbur' Subject: Meeting with Dr. O'Shea and Professor Patrick McDonald Dear Shelley, Judge Williams has asked me to coordinate a 1.5 hour meeting at New College with Dr. O?Shea, Professor McDonald and the following people from the 12th Circuit: Judge Williams Judge Haworth Court Administrator, Walt Smith Chief Information Of?cer, Dennis Menendez I?ve cleared three dates where our folks are available and hope that schedules on your end are as well: Wednesday, 1/1 1/ 17 12 Noon Wednesday, 1/1 8/ 17 12 Noon Thursday, 1/19/17 11:30 am. The meeting pertains to the Sarasota Herald Tribune articles. Judge Williams has discussed this with Dr. O?Shea, so he is aware that we are reaching out to coordinate this meeting. All my best, Lisa M. Fudge, Judicial Assistant to Charles E. Williams, Chief Judge State of Florida, Twelfth Judicial Circuit 143 Desoio, Manatee Sarasota Counties, Florida 2002 Ringling Boulevard Saraso?ra, Florida 34237 941.861.7942 941.861.79i3 (fax) 144 Dennis Menendez I From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Wednesday, January 4, 2017 2:43 PM To: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: Re: Meeting with Dr. O'Shea and Professor Patrick McDonald Okay - thanks Lisa. I'll ask Pat McDonald. Shelley On Wed, Jan 4, 2017 at 2:39 PM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Hi Shelley, Welcome back! Let?s book Noon on 1/18. I have not reached out to Pat McDonald. If you could do so, that would be wonderful. I?m going to release the other dates on the calendars. Thank you, Lisa From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Wednesday, January 4, 2017 12:07 PM To: Lisa Subject: Re: Meeting with Dr. O'Shea and Professor Patrick McDonald Hi Lisa, I'm just getting back in the of?ce. Noon on 1/18 will work on this end. Don and Brad Thiessen are available. I'm trying to ?nd out what's going on with Mike Sutherland. I'm not sure what his schedule is. Have you been in touch with Pat McDonald or should I reach out to him. Please let me know. 138 Thanks, Shelley Shelley Wilbur Senior Administrative Assistant Of?ce of the President New College of Florida 5800 Bay Shore Road Sarasota, FL 34243 941.487.4100 phone 941.487.4101 fax On Tue, Dec 27, 2016 at 9:21 AM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik wrote: Hi Shelley, I'm in the of?ce today, and then out for the rest of the week. I?m writing to follow up on Dr. O?Shea?s e-mail to Judge Wi11iams from 12/23 where he suggests that we should coordinate for Brad Thiessen and Mike Sutherland at the meeting if possible. The dates below are still good on our end. All my best, Lisa From: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Sent: Thursday, December 22, 2016 2:44 PM 139 To: 'Shelley Wilbur' Subject: Meeting with Dr. O'Shea and Professor Patrick McDonald Dear Shelley, Judge Williams has asked me to coordinate a 1.5 hour meeting at New College with Dr. O?Shea, Professor McDonald and the following people from the 12th Circuit: Judge Williams Judge Haworth Court Administrator, Walt Smith Chief Information Of?cer, Dennis Menendez I?ve cleared three dates Where our folks are available and hope that schedules on your end are as well: Wednesday, 1/1 1/ 17 12 Noon Wednesday, 1/1 8/ 17 12 Noon Thursday, 1/19/17 11:30 am. The meeting pertains to the Sarasota Herald Tribune articles. Judge Williams has discussed this with Dr. O?Shea, so he is aware that we are reaching out to coordinate this meeting. All my best, Lisa M. Fudge. Judicial Assistant to Charles E. Williams, Chief Judge State of Florida, Twelfth Judicial Circuit Desoto, Manatee Sarasota Counties, Florida 2002 Ringling Boulevard Sarasota, Florida 34237 941 .86] .7942 140 941.861.7913 (fax) 141 Dennis Menendez From: Shelley Wilbur Sent: Thursday, January 5, 2017 9:31 AM To: Lisa Fudge?Schustik Subject: Re: January 18 Hi again, The meeting Will be in Cook Hall. The conference room is located in the northeast corner of the building - room 120. Our street address is 349 College Drive. Here is a link to our campus map. Our building is building No. 1. Let me know if you need anything else. Thank you, Shelley On Thu, Jan 5, 2017 at 8:46 AM, Lisa Fudge-Schustik Subject: January 18 Hi Lisa, 134 I have Don, Pat McDonald and Brad Thiessen attending from here on 1/18. Should I reserve a conference room? Thank you, Shelley Shelley Wilbur 135 Dennis Menendez From: Dennis Menendez Sent: Friday, January 6, 2017 3:23 PM To: tom.tryon@heraldtribune.com Subject: Fwd: confidential Attachments: Scanned from a Xerox Multifunction Printer.pdf Mr. Tyron, per Chief Judge Charles Williams request, please see attached document. Dennis Menendez 12th Judicial Circuit Court Chief Information Officer dmenendez@jud12.flcourts.org 941.861.7817 133 Dennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:14 AM To: Patrick McDonald Subject: RE: chat? Are you available at 11:15 am today? If not, i could do first thing tomorrow morning (any time before 10am). Numbers are different depending on which day you pick Walt From: Patrick McDonald Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 1:48 AM To: Wait Smith Subject: chat? Dear Walt, I hope all is well. Donal O'Shay and I are wondering about data and timelines. Is there a number and a time when I can give you a call to chat about a few details? Best regards, Pat Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science Professor of Mathematics New College of Florida 131 Dennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 9:51 AM To: Patrick McDonald Cc: Dennis Menendez; Joseph M. Terhune Subject: RE: chat? Call me at 941-749-3656. Thanks Walt From: Patrick McDonald [mailtozmcdonald@ncf.edu] Sent: Thursday, Janualry 12, 2017 9:34 AM To: Walt Smith Subject: Re: chat? I am available at 11:15 today works. Pat On Thu, Jan 12, 2017 at 9:14 AM, Walt Smith wrote: Are you available at 11:15 am today? if not, I could do first thing tomorrow morning (any time before 10am). Numbers are different depending on which day you pick Walt From: Patrick McDonald Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 1:48 AM To: Walt Smith Subject: chat? Dear Walt, I hope all is well. 129 Donal O'Shay and I are wondering about data and timelines. Is there a number and a time when I can give you a call to chat about a few details? Best regards, Pat Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science Professor of Mathematics New College of Florida Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science Professor of Mathematics New College of Florida 130 Dennis Menendez From: Dennis Menendez Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 12:07 PM To: mcdonald@ncf.edu Cc: Walt Smith; Joseph M. Terhune Subject: Documents Attachments: Supplemental documentszip Pat, attached you?ll find various documents and files that Joe Terhune has been working with. Joe will be your main contact regarding any questions about the data download, db queries, etc. 941?749-3600 x7099 Office 941-210-9508 Cell If you have any other questions please feel free to contact me at the number below or my cell at 941-232?1158. I'll see you tomorrow. Thank you for your assistance with this. Dennis Menendez 12th Judicial Circuit Court of Florida d_me HE nde_z @J'ud 12 .fltaurt?S.0! 5- 911-351-7317 From: Joseph M. Terhune Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:43 AM To: Dennis Menendez Subject: documents Joe Terhune Senior Web Developer Court Administration Technology Services 12th Judicial Circuit Court of Florida iterhune@iud12.flcourts.org (941)-749-3600 x7099 128 Dennis Menendez From: Patrick McDonald Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 1:37 PM To: Dennis Menendez Cc: Walt Smith; Joseph M. Terhune Subject: Re: Documents Dear Dennis, Walt and Joe, Thanks for taking time to meet this morning. Here is the NCF map: The Division of Natural Science Of?ce is in the west wing of the Heiser Natural Science Complex (building marked 17). Colleen Swessel is the Division of?ce and expecting you to deliver the drive tomorrow morning. Best, Pat On Thu, Jan 12, 2017 at 12:07 PM, Dennis Menendez wrote: Pat, attached you?ll ?nd various documents and ?les that Joe Terhune has been working with. Joe will be your main contact regarding any questions about the data download, db queries, etc. 941?749-3600 X7099 Of?ce 941-210-9508 Cell If you have any other questions please feel free to contact me at the number below or my cell at 941-232- 1158. I?ll see you tomorrow. Thank you for your assistance with this. 126 Dennis Men endez 11th Jud itial Circuit Court of Florida dme made: 941-351?731? "1 From: Joseph M. Terhune Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2017 11:43 AM To: Dennis Menendez Subject: documents 0e Terhune Senior Web Developer Court Administration Technology Services 12th Judicial Circuit Court of Florida iterhunefc?iudl 2 .?courtsoru 1941 I-749-3600 x7099 Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science Professor of Mathematics New College of Florida 127 Dennis Menendez From: Sent: To: Cc: Subject: Lisa Fudge-Schustik Tuesday, January 17, 2017 4:31 PM Shelley Wilbur; Bradley Thiessen; Patrick McDonald Nikita Bagley; Lee Haworth; Walt Smith; Dennis Menendez RE: Confirming 1/18 meeting Thank you, Shelley. Everyone on our end is confirmed and looking forward to the meeting. Sincerely, Lisa From: Shelley Wilbur [mailtozmwilbur@ncf.edu] Sent: Tuesday, January 17, 2017 4:26 PM To: Bradley Thiessen Patrick McDonald Lisa Fudge-Schustik Cc: Nikita Bagley Subject: Confirming 1/18 meeting I'm con?rming the meeting tomorrow January 18 at noon to discuss the Sarasota Herald Tribune articles. The meeting is in Cook Hall 120. Here is who I have attending: Judge Williams Judge Haworth Court Administrator, Walt Smith Chief Information Of?cer, Dennis Menendez Pat McDonald Brad Thiessen Don O'Shea Please let me know if there have been changes. Thank you, Shelley 118 Dennis Mt From: Donal O'Shea Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2017 9:00 PM To: Charles Williams Subject: Re: Thanks Dear Charles, No thanks necessary. The faculty are genuinely interested (and the article is an utter travesty). By the way, you have a great team. Don On Wed, Jan 18, 2017 at 5:46 PM, Charles Williams wrote: Donal, Thank you so much for meeting with us today and inviting your faculty to participate in assisting us make some sense of the Sarasota Herald Tribune article on bias. Please let us know if there is anything you need from the courts to assist you in your analysis. Thanks, Charles Sent from my iPhone Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 113 Dennis Menendez From: Joseph M. Terhune Sent: Monday, January 23, 2017 8:25 AM To: Patrick McDonald Subject: RE: Department of Corrections Data Sorry didn't check my email till this morning. I sent you an email from my gmail account with a link to download the data. From: Patrick McDonald [mailtozmcdonald@ncf.edu] Sent: Friday, January 20, 2017 6:22 PM To: Joseph M. Terhune Subject: Re: Department of Corrections Data Hi Joe, Thanks for the note. We can grab the data from a URL, or perhaps someone can dr0p off a drive? Is there any way I can get the data this weekend? I met with a team of faculty and students (there are 12 of us) and we have begun exploring the OBTS data. We will have something by next Friday. I'd like to reiterate my desire to ?nd out precisely what the HT asked for from each agency and then ask for exactly the same thing. We will continue working in the meantime: our analysis will immediately scale. Best, Pat On Fri, Jan 20, 2017 at 11:35 AM, Joseph M. Terhune wrote: We received the DOC data today. How would you like to transmit the data? It is 147MB compressed. Joe Terhune Senior Web Developer Court Administration Technology Services 12th Judicial Circuit Court of Florida lterhunelfilitid 1 2 .?courtsor: 101 Dennis Menendez From: Charles Williams Sent: Monday, January 30, 2017 5:52 PM To: Donal O'Shea Subject: Re: Herald-Tribune's 'Bias on the Bench' investigative series finalist for Goldsmith Prize Once we get your analysis-we will fully respond to the Goldsmith Prize Committee. Sent from my iPad On Jan 30, 2017, at 5:43 PM, Donal O'Shea wrote: Expletive deleted On Mon, Jan 30, 2017 at 2:19 PM, Charles Williams wrote: Sent from my iPad Donal O'Shea President New College of Florida 76 Dennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Tuesday, February 14, 2017 6:53 AM To: Patrick McDonald Cc: Donal O'Shea Subject: Re: progress Patrick: Great news. I'm not holding out much hope for unique identi?ers, but I'm sure if it can be done you your team will ?nd a way! Thanks for the update. Walt On Feb 14, 2017, at 3 :59 AM, Patrick McDonald wrote: Dear Walt, I've attached some preliminary analysis. We should finish this week (though unexpected demands from the State Legislature have been an enormous distraction as of late). We need to look more closely at unique identi?ers and this will take work. We are building tools that we will host at NCF so that anyone can replicate our analysis for any judge by just substituting the judge's name. You have been patient and I wanted to let you know we are close and we will have something for every judge when we are done. . Best, Pat Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science Professor of Mathematics New College of Florida 56 Dennis Menendez From: Patrick McDonald Sent: Monday, February 27, 2017 3:14 PM To: Dennis Menendez Subject: Re: Question from Judge Williams Dear Dennis, Yes, after some phone tag, I spoke with Michael Braga yesterday. He gave me the name of their expert: John Kramer. I sent Prof. Kramer a note last night and he responded this morning. Following up on his suggestion, I am setting up a time to meet with him later this week. From Prof. Kramer's written response, it isn't clear to what extent he was involved in the analysis. He supports the construction of the database and careful analysis to follow, but does not claim that what was done was careful. I'll know once we speak. It is my intention to ask the SHT for space to reply in their opinion page and given the support I will have from their expert, I think there is a good chance that I will get it. I will use that space to direct people's attention to shortcomings of the analysis and more detailed results and tools to be hosted at the NCF site. In speaking to Mr. Braga I learned that the SHT will focus their attention on the "plea pipeline" (my words). I can say that, although Mr. Braga and I don?t see to on the inclusion of the plea data, he did admit that the problem called for a more nuanced approach to making inferences and that there were a number of issues that required more thought than they were given. More to come. Best, Fat On Mon, Feb 27, 2017 at 2:47 PM, Dennis Menendez wrote: Professor McDonald, Judge Williams asked me to check with you to see ifthe SHT ever responded to your request that they share the names of the experts they consulted with for the article with you? 28 Dennis Menendez From: Patrick McDonald Sent: Thursday, February 23, 2017 8:29 AM To: michaelbraga@heraldtribune.com Subject: Bias on the bench Dear Mr. Braga, I was delighted to read the piece ?Rhetoric threatens principles of journalism and free speech? published by the Herald Tribune on February 23. These are dark times in desperate need of a little light. I was particularly drawn to the point that discussed belief in the discipline of veri?cation. In the spirit of the article, I was wondering whether you would be able to provide me with some information regarding the ?Bias on the bench? series. I am wondering if you would be willing to provide a list of the experts consulted regarding your statistical techniques and whether you would provide a description of the protocols you used to process the data that is suf?cient to reproduce your result. By way of context, I sent a letter to the Herald Tribune soon after the series was published, but my letter was not published or answered. I sent the same letter to the Twelfth Circuit Court, and the court provided me with OBTS data for the Twelfth Circuit. This data is presumably part of the same data the Herald Tribune used to come to its conclusions (in particular, its conclusions regarding Judge Charles Williams). I have completed a preliminary analysis of the data and I am trying to interpret what my ?ndings mean with respect to the Herald Tribune?s series. Thank you for your consideration. Sincerely, Pat McDonald Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science 35 Dennis Menendez From: Patrick McDonald Sent: Friday, March 3, 2017 9:04 PM To: Dennis Menendez Subject: Re: Share Preliminary Findings with Office of State Courts Administrator Dennis, I would prefer that you communicate the following: 1. Including data involving cases where a plea bargain is accepted undermines any con?dence one might have in the inferences drawn regarding bias in the sentence attributable to the sentencing judge. 2. Inferences involving bias on the part of a sentencing judge that are based on data aggregated in felony degree risk treating strongly coupled events as independent. It is dif?cult to associate any con?dence to such inferences. Best, Pat On Fri, Mar 3, 2017 at 3:23 PM, Dennis Menendez wrote: Professor McDonald, Chief Judge Williams asked me to check with you to see if you would approve sharing the following two ?ndings from your preliminary report with OSCA to help combat the Judicial Bias Bill prior to the release of your ?nal report? 1. Including data involving cases where a plea bargain is accepted undermines any con?dence one might have in the inferences drawn regarding bias in the sentence. 2. Inferences involving bias on the part of a sentencing judge that are based on data aggregated in felony degree can carry no con?dence (because such aggregation treats each felony charge as an independent event). Dennis Menenrlez Chief Information Officer 12th Judicial Circuit ?our: of Florida DME-nsendez 931-851-7817 Dennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Thursday, March 9, 2017 12:10 PM To: Patrick McDonald Subject: Re: bias bills Fantastic. Thank you. On Mar 9, 2017, at 10:08 AM, Patrick McDonald <1ncdonald?nc?edu> wrote: Final edits today. Letter by the afternoon. Pat On Mar 9, 2017 9:48 AM, "Walt Smith" wrote: Hello: We wanted to forward this link (at the end of this email) to both of you to let you know that the Legislature is moving forward with what are being labeled as "judicial accountability? bills in both the House and Senate based upon the SHT series Bias on the Bench. When we spoke with Patrick last, he was going to put together a summary in the front of the report that provided your conclusions in plain (read: not statis1ical language. We can?t tell you how much we appreciate your unbiased work on this. If you can. please let us know when the report might be completed. We realize there are many things that can interfere with completion so a rough estimate would be great. Thanks again. Walt From: Charles Williams Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2017 8:47 AM To: Walt Smith Subject: Re: bias bills Pennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Thursday, March 9, 2017 12:10 PM To: Patrick McDonald Subject: Re: bias bills Fantastic. Thank you. On Mar 9, 2017, at 10:08 AM, Patrick McDonald wrote: Final edits today. Letter by the afternoon. Pat On Mar 9, 2017 9:48 AM, "Walt Smith" wrote: Hello: We wanted to forward this link (at the end of this email) to both of you to let you know that the Legislature is moving forward with what are being labeled as ?judicial accountability? bills in both the House and Senate based upon the SHT series Bias on the Bench. When we spoke with Patrick last, he was going to put together a summary in the front of the report that provided your conclusions in plain (read: not statistical 63) language. We can?t tell you how much we appreciate your unbiased work on this. If you can, please let us know when the report might be completed. We realize there are many things that can interfere with completion so a rough estimate would be great. Thanks again. Walt From: Charles Williams Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2017 8:47 AM To: Walt Smith Subject: Re: bias bills Preliminary Bias Analysis C. Dowdy, C. Ede/son, C. Leonard and P. McDonald February 12, 2017 Introduction Our criminal justice system is sustained by the belief that all citizens are to be afforded fair and equal treatment under the law. It is no secret, however, that our prison population is skewed by race: people of color are over-represented as a proportion of those incarcerated. Investigating why this is the status quo and how the status quo can be addressed is an important and difficult problem, one deserving careful attention. Recently, the Sarasota Herald Tribune ran a four part series addressing the issue of bias in the Florida Criminal Justice System. Their series, entitled "Bias On The Bench", lays the blame for the status quo squarely at the feet of Florida's judges. The series purports to be data-driven, the result of a year of work involving millions of cases. It names names: the series ascribes biased sentencing behavior to speci?c judges and in so doing impunges their credibility and the credibility of the system they represent. It does not provide the raw data from which the conclusions are drawn, it does not provide the algorithms or software used to clean and process the data, and it does not provide a clear discussion of how the processed data is being interpreted. Because the charge of bias is serious, it is essential that it be well-founded. In this note we review the data associated to two of the judges named in the Sarasota Herald Tribune series, Judge Lee Haworth and Judge Charles Williams. We provide both a description of the data used for our study and a link to the raw data. We provide a description of how we process the data and the software and algorithms we use. We provide a discussion of how we interpret the results of our processed data. Our report is thus fully reproducible: anyone who downloads the data can check the results we report. We have constructed the code to be reusable and we have provided an example for how those interested might use our tools to investigate data associated to otherjudges. Our main conclusions regarding Judge Charles Vl?lliams are visualized in Figures follows: - Contrary to what was reported in the Sarasota Herald Tribune, there is no evidence in the data we examined that, for defendents tried and found guilty of the same crime, Judge Williams assigns longer sentences to black defendents than to white defendents (see Figure 3). - The inclusion of data for which no trial occurs (for example, data involving cases where a plea bargain is accepted), runs the risk of greatly distorting the outcome of an analysis for bias on the part of the Sentencing judge (see Figures 1 and 2). New College of Florida Natural Sciences Division March 8, 2017 Chief Judge Charles Williams Twelfth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida Dear Chief Judge Williams, I write to report on the methodology used in the recent Sarasota Herald Tribune series entitled ?Bias on the Bench.? The series claims to have analyzed more than 84 million criminal records in reaching the conclusion that many judges in the Florida Criminal Justice System sentence black defendants to signi?cantly longer periods of incarceration than white defendants for the same crime. While an analysis of bias in the Florida Criminal Justice System is long overdue, I have concluded that the methodology employed by the Herald Tribune is deeply ?awed and their conclusions cannot be adopted with con?dence. What the Herald Tribune has done, however, has the potential to inform future work intended to identify and remove bias. Accordingly, I offer more detailed comments below. The Herald Tribune built'a database comprised of records obtained from the Florida Offender Based Tracking System (OBTS) and the Florida Department of Corrections (DOC) spanning the years 2004-2016. In making pronouncements regarding bias on the part of individual judges, they restricted attention to third degree felonies, where they produced rough statistical aggregates. My criticisms of their approach are primarily of two kinds: shortcomings involving transparency and shortcomings involving control. Because the charge of bias is leveled at individuals and is serious, it is essential that the methods by which conclusions are reached be transparent. As a minimum standard, the Herald Tribune should have provided 0 Access to the raw data used to come to the conclusion; 0 The software and code used to clean and analyze the data; 0 A discussion of how the results of the analysis are being interpreted; - A measure of confidence in their conclusions. Because the Herald Tribune did not provide this information, it is impossible to know precisely what they did, let alone check the validity and reproducibility of their results. Starting at the top, without access to the data it is impossible to assess the quality of the data, and the quality of the data limits the con?dence one might have in any subsequent conclusion. The data required extensive cleaning, a process that involves making decisions as to what part of the data is retained and interpreted as part of a judge?s sentencing record. Without a detailed description of how this was done, it is not possible to provide any measure of con?dence in what the record and without knowing the record it is not possible to assess in what sense it is biased. It appears that the Herald Tribune relied on some type of averaging, but without precise information of what constitutes a record, it is impossible to compute an average, let alone determine whether the particular average computed is a good representation of the behavior it purportedly describes. Each bullet point thus represents a serious problem that must be addressed in order for one to independently make sense of and assess the Herald Tribune?s claims. 5800 Bay Shore Road I Sarasota, Florida 34243-2109 941-487?4370 I Fax: 941-487-4396 In addition to problems of transparency, there are a number of problems involving control, a technical term that refers to the extent to which the measurements (sentence length) can be attributed to a variable of interest (individual judge?s bias). My most serious objections to the Herald Tribune?s methodology from the point of view of control are 0 Failure to control for confounding by plea deals; 0 Failure to control for time dependent guidelines and sentencing norms; - Failure to control for strong coupling of charges in the computation of aggregates. Each point above describes a well-known feature of the criminal justice system. For example, it is well known that upwards of 95% of all sentences involve no trial and in the overwhelming majority of such cases a plea deal has been reached independent of the judge in whose court the plea is formally accepted. Not controlling for this variable and subsequently ascribing bias to the judge in their sentencing is at face value a very bad idea: at best it misconstrues how the criminal justice system works; at worst it lays the blame for possible bias on the part of other agents in the criminal justice system at the feet of the judge who happened to be the last stop in the criminal justice system before incarceration. In both cases, the net outcome may well be a failure to recognize where reform would do the most good. The other two bullet points similarly undermine con?dence in conclusions: in the case of time dependent guidelines and sentencing norms, it is well-known that the war on drugs took/takes a disproportionate toll on different ethnic groups with different intensities over the course of the last twenty years. Comparing records that terminate in 2004 with records that terminate much later therefore introduces a confounder that undermines con?dence. These concerns are not just theoretical, nor are they exhaustive: I have examined the OBTS data for the Twelfth Circuit and witnessed instances where each of the above problems (and a number of others) surfaced g. the data includes missing ?elds and incorrect entries, the data required extensive cleaning, the structure of the distribution for felony charges by degree and race are completely different when accounting for plea data, cases involving multiple charges versus cases involving a single charge, examples where judges whose record terminates in 2004 compared to judges active from 2004-2014, small sample problems when seeking to determine the same or suf?ciently similar crimes, etc.). These observations undermine con?dence in the Herald Tribune?s conclusions, and, in particular, the charge of individual bias is unsupported. While the claims in the ?Bias on the Bench? series are unsupportable, it is clear that the Herald Tribune has done a valuable service in calling attention to the existence of bias in the criminal justice system and in putting together a database intended to address the problem. Hope?illy, the latter could be used as a springboard to provide a more comprehensive, methodologically sound investigation of the Florida Criminal Justice System with an toward improving the status quo. Sincerely, i i ?.de A ?Vs-t Patrick McDonald Director of Data Science Professor of Mathematics 5800 Bay Shore Road Sarasota, Florida 34243?2109 941?487-4370 Fax: 941?487-4396 Dennis Menendez From: Walt Smith Sent: Friday, March 10, 2017 9:16 AM To: Nikita Bagley Subject: RE: Letter from Pat McDonald re. "Bias on the Bench" Thank you, Nikita. Will you ask Patrick if we can put this on our web site along with the other responses from other sources, and also if he will send us a revised (if he wants) version of his last report that contained the statistical analysis and what was done in the New College analysis that we could also put on our web site? Thanks. Walt Walt Smith 12th Circuit Court Administrator Judge N. Silvertooth Judicial Center 2002 Ringling Blvd. Sarasota, FL 3423 7 941-861-7800 941-861-7904 (fax) wsmith @judl 2. flcourts. org From: Nikita Bagley Sent: Friday, March 10, 2017 8:40 AM To: Walt Smith Subject: Letter from Pat McDonald re. "Bias on the Bench" Good morning, Please see attached letter from Pat McDonald. Best, Nikita Bagley Nikita Bagley Data Science Program New College of Florida 5800 Bay Shore Road, PMD I 1 7 Sarasota, FL 34243 - 2109 nbai r/e edu ph: (941) 487 4103