LIMITED1 JO EPN TRITON 2016 BIWEEKLY ANALYTICAL REPORT Bi-Weekly No. 22, 21 Nov — 4 Dec 2016 (weeks 47 - 48), Ref.24 459/2016 9 Dec 2016 Key Points  As of 4 Dec 2016, 172 229 irregular migrants have been intercepted in the Central Mediterranean, which represents a ~16% increase compared to the same period of 2015.  Increasing number of arrivals in October and November compared to the same months in previous years.  Most of the incidents involved rubber dinghies and small wooden boats coming from Libya.  High number of Moroccans arriving in Italy in the reporting period.  The number of arrivals from Algeria in one single week represents ~20% of the total of arrivals from this country in 2016. Simultaneous departures from Algeria suggest a higher level of complexity and coordination by smuggling networks operating in this country.  Again the Libyan authorities are involved in smuggling activities.  First reported case where the criminal networks were smuggling migrants directly on a NGO vessel 1 Limited: “Information which is sensitive and limited for use within the European Union Institutions, other offices and agencies established by virtue of or on the basis of the Treaties, EU Member States and public administrations; Distribution on a need to know basis. Not for public dissemination”. LIMITED Main Trends During the period under analysis, 67 illegal immigration incidents were reported (26 incidents in week Figure 1: Number of arrivals in 2015/2016. In the red circle the peak in Oct and Nov 2016. 47 and 41 in week 48) involving the apprehension of 5 871 irregular migrants (3 025 apprehensions in week 47 and 2 846 apprehensions in week 48). In particular: 48 boats arrived from Libya involving 5 075  migrants 11 boats from Algeria involving 204 migrants on  board  4 boats from Turkey involving 550 migrants  3 boats from Tunisia with 13 migrants on board  1 boat from Greece with 29 migrants on board Thus far in 2016, the number of migrants apprehended in ing migrants’ lives. According to IOM1, the number of the Central Mediterranean totalled 172 229 which repre- fatalities in 2016 has increased by ~48% compared to sents a ~16% increase compared to the same period of the same period in 2015. For instance, on 21 November 2015 (147 913). As illustrated in Figure 1, the number of one incident involving two overcrowded rubber dinghies arrivals increased in October and November compared was reported; these boats had departed from Zawiya to the same months in 2015. Despite tough weather condi- (Libya). When the migrants were on the high seas, the tions during this period of the year, migrant arrivals con- smugglers who were escorting the migrant dinghies re- tinued unabated mainly from Libya. The smuggling net- moved the engines from the dinghies and forced the works are aware that the maritime assets are patrolling migrants to hand over the life jackets. Soon afterwards, close to the Libyan shore, and for that reason they are a huge wave hit both dinghies and the dinghies immedi- encouraging the migrants to sail even when the sea is ately capsized, with all the migrants falling into the rough because they will be rescued soon after their de- water with only a few surviving (Fig 2). In addition in the parture. In 2015, the average number of migrants in period under analysis, open sources2 reported that a each rubber dinghy was 108. Thus far in 2016, using the wooden boat carrying migrants was shipwrecked ap- same type of rubber dinghy, the average number of mi- proximately 15 km from the Libyan coast with dozens of grants has increased to 121 in each dinghy. By overcrowd- people feared missed (Fig 3). Two days later, Libyan ing the migrant boats and encouraging them to sail in open sources2 reported that dozens of corpses had been inclement weather the smugglers are further endanger- found on Libya’s coastline. Figure 2: One of the migrants’ rubber dinghies capsized. Source: Frontex. Figure 3: Shipwrecked wooden boat on 3 Dec approx. 15 km from the Libyan shore. Source: Facebook. 1 https://missingmigrants.iom.int/mediterranean 2 https://www.facebook.com/%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%A4%D9%86-%D9%81%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B7%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86-% LIMITED Once again Libya is the main country of departure with ~86% of irregular migrant arrivals during the reporting Figure 4: Incidents that occurred during the reporting period in the framework of the JO Triton 2016 period. Most of the incidents continue to involve rubber dinghies that had departed from Libya bound for Italy. Sabratah was the main place of departure but it is worth mentioning that again departures from Zuwarah were reported. It is especially noteworthy that one incident from Greece was reported after 14 weeks without arrivals from this country. In this specific case, 29 migrants managed to disembark undetected on mainland Italy. Even if this is an isolated case, is suggesting that travelling directly from Greece to Italy is an option for all those migrants stranded in Greece. It is worth nothing that there have been no arrivals from been migrants. As previously reported, with these Egypt since September. The Egyptian authorities are measures the Egyptian authorities are trying to tackle prosecuting two maritime inspection officials accused of smuggling activities in Egypt. 3 belonging to the smuggling network that was involved in During weeks 47 and 48, irregular migrant arrivals were the most recent incident where a fishing boat capsized also reported from Algeria, Turkey and Tunisia, with the off the coast of Egypt in September. Furthermore, the following locations being identified as the main departure Egyptian authorities have reported the discovery of a net- areas/points in each country; Annaba in Algeria, Sfax and work which is accused of illicit international trafficking in Kerkenah Islands in Tunisia and Izmir in Turkey. human organs4. Apparently, some of the victims have Main Nationalities Thus far in 2016, the most common nationalities re- Figure 5: Main nationalities from 1 Jan to 4 Dec 2016/2015 ported within the framework of the JO Triton have been from the following countries: Nigeria, Eritrea, Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, the Gambia, Senegal, Mali, Sudan, Bangladesh and Somalia. During the reporting period the majority of the migrants arrived from Western and Central African countries, but it is worth highlighting the significant presence of Moroccan migrants arriving from Libya and Iraqi and Pakistani migrants arriving from Turkey. In terms of the price paid by migrants to be smuggled from 500 – 800 USD, which was the regular price in previ- from Libya to Italy, the amount varies depending of the ous months, to 1 500 – 2 300 USD to travel aboard a rub- specific deal agreed between the migrant and the smug- ber boat. This suggests that the demand for smuggling gler. However, according to intelligence gathered through services is high which allows the smuggling networks to debriefing activities it turns out that in some cases the increase the price for certain nationalities without a de- average price paid by certain nationalities, namely mi- crease in the number of migrants wanting to be smuggled grants from Horn of African countries, has increased to the EU. 3 http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-migrants-egypt-idUSKBN13S0MC 4 http://en.aswatmasriya.com/news/details/18112 LIMITED Main Findings Syrians using Libya as the last departure country Figure 6. Route Syria-Jordan-Sudan-Libya-Italy As previously mentioned, the overall increase in the number of detections in 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 is directly related to the increase in the number of arrivals in October and November. According to the figures obtained from JORA, the number of arrivals in October and November 2016 is the highest ever recorded in these months in the Central Mediterranean route since the beginning of Frontex joint operations. From amongst the migrants that arrived in the Central Mediterranean during the reporting period, it is worth mentioning that 68 Syrian nationals reached the Italian coast. Some of them sailed directly from Turkey towards Italy by boat but most of them used Libya as the last country of departure. Of these Syrians, many had been established in Libya for several years and, due to bad living conditions they decided to try to reach Italy. According to the information gathered during the debriefing activities, the Libyan government has imposed strict re- USD for the whole trip from Syria to Libya and 1 000 USD strictions on banks and these measures are preventing to cross from Libya to Italy. It is not possible to deter- foreigners from withdrawing their savings from their bank mine how many Syrians have recently arrived in Italy us- accounts, which is leading many migrants to leave the ing this route and how many of them decided to leave country. Libya after living there for several years. With this route On the other hand, and as mentioned in previous reports, Syrians are using the route Syria-Jordan-Sudan-Libya (Mitiga airport in Tripoli) by aeroplane (Fig. 6) and further by boat to reach Italy . Syrians are paying ~8 000 Moroccans The number of Moroccan nationals continues to increase. Information collected during debriefing activities suggests that Moroccan migrants are aware that they will not be immediately returned to Morocco and once the registration process is completed, they can continue their trip to their final destination country, which in many cases, is France. As a result of not being returned immediately is fast becoming one of the main ‘pull factors’ encouraging them to reach Italy. Typically, Moroccans use Tunisia as a transit country to reach Libya, and not the African route in the Sahel. open and being relatively safe due to the fact that most of the trip is done by aeroplane where Syrians arrive at Mitiga airport in Tripoli, an increasing number of Syrians arriving from Libya using this route cannot be ruled out. Figure 7: Moroccan nationals arrived in the Central Mediterranean in 2015 and 2016 At the beginning of 2016, Da’esh’s presence was reported Taking into account that migrants from Morocco are cur- in the north-western region of Libya. At that time, many rently facing difficulties in entering the EU via the West- of the foreign fighters in Da’esh in Libya were Tunisian ern and Eastern Mediterranean routes, they are now en- who, taking advantage of the lack of border controls at tering Tunisia and continuing further to Libya in order to the Tunisian-Libyan border, crossed the border from Tuni- enter the EU. This route has recently become the best sia to Libya and vice versa. alternative route into the EU for Moroccans. For that reason the land border between Tunisia and Lib- It is worth mentioning that the overall flow of Moroccans ya was at the beginning of 2016 and flights between both in 2016 remains stable compared to the same period of countries were operating under strict security measures 2015. with the result that the number of Moroccans decreased Figure 8. Route by aeroplane Casablanca-Tunis-Tripoli in the following months . According to the intelligence gathered, recently flight connections between Tunis and Mitiga airport (Tripoli) were reopened, being the main reason for the increasing number of Moroccan nationals detected in the Central Med. Simultaneous departures from Algeria Thus far in 2016 the number of arrivals from Algeria mation gathered, the number of boats departing at the has increased by ~440% compared to the same period in same time was much higher than the number of boats 2015. which successfully reached Italy. Some of the migrant In the reporting period, a total of 204 migrants arrived boats were intercepted by the Algerians authorities but, from Algeria in 11 incidents, which represents ~20% of by launching many boats at the same time the smug- all arrivals from Algeria in 2016. Of these, 11 boats ar- gling networks were assuring that dozens of migrants rived in Italy, 10 of which were intercepted on 2 and 3 would successfully reach Italy. December. After the debriefing activities, it was possible The change of modus operandi with the smuggling net- to determine that the smuggling networks were perform- works performing simultaneous departures from Algeria ing simultaneous departures from the area of Annaba in suggests a higher level of complexity and coordination by order to make it difficult for the Algerian authorities to the smuggling networks operating in Algeria. intercept the migrants’ boats. According to the infor- Arrivals from Turkey Even though during most of 2016 migration pressure from The main reason for the increasing trend has to be Turkey has remained lower than last year, in August found in the situation that thousands of migrants are 2016 the flow started to increase and reached a peak facing on the Greek Eastern Aegean Islands, where they during November 2016 (the highest number since Janu- remain stranded with little possibility of reaching the ary 2015). Greek mainland. As an alternative, people smuggling networks operating from Turkey are offering migrants different alternatives to reach the EU:  Through Sudan, flying from Istanbul to Sudan and Figure 9. Arrivals from Turkey in 2015/2016 them from here to Libya by land or air route.  Directly from Turkey by sea to Italy, mainly aboard sailing vessels and to a much lesser extent aboard wooden/fishing boats and yachts. Libyan local authorities involved in the smuggling activities As mentioned in previous reports, some members of Lib- highlighting that this has been reported several times by ya’s local authorities are involved in smuggling activi- the Italian Coast Guard and EUNAVFORMED. For in- ties. Some of the migrants that recently arrived in Italy stance, they have reported the presence of skiffs with a stated that they had been smuggled by criminal net- few people on board pretending to be fishermen but works with Libyan smugglers wearing uniforms. Some suspected of being involved in smuggling activities. of the interviewed migrants gave a description of the the reporting period, one of the supposed fishermen was uniforms worn by the smugglers as “grey and black with again wearing the uniform of the Libyan police with the the word “police” or ”‫(“الشرطة‬police in Arabic) written person being photographed by one of the EUNAVFORMED across the back. In light of the foregoing, it is worth aerial assets. First reported case where the criminal networks were smuggling migrants directly on a NGO maritime vessel It is also worth highlighting that during the reporting peri- or disposal of the migrants’ boats are crucial steps in od and, according to the Italian authorities, during a SAR tackling and curbing smuggling activities in the Central operation, which was being carried out by two NGOs ves- Mediterranean. sels Minden and Topaz Responder, there was a small fibreglass boat in the area displaying a Libyan flag with persons pretending to be fishermen. At a certain point, this fibreglass boat approached one of the NGO vessels ‘Minden’ and transferred two Libyan citizens from the small boat to the EU vessel claiming that they were migrants. The NGO vessel took them aboard and let the Libyan boat leave the area. After the debriefing activities, the migrants stated that the crew aboard the small Libyan boat were the people smugglers. This is the first reported case where the criminal networks directly approached an EU vessel and smuggled the migrants directly into Europe using the NGO vessel. Identification, and arrest of smugglers as well as seizure Figure 10: Libyan smugglers approaching the NGO vessel to transfer the two Libyan migrants. Source: MOAS Main trends by country of departure in 2016 In 2016, the breakdown by migratory routes in the Central Mediterranean shows an increasing trend (~16%) of arrivals from Libya which has remained the main country of departure. Moreover, the number of arrivals increased from Egypt, Turkey, Tunisia and Algeria but decreased from Greece. The following map shows the volume of the migratory flows by country of departure since the beginning of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015 LIMITED For the Debriefing Teams:  Continue with the deployment of the joint debriefing teams and joint screening teams to the landing areas.  Acquire information about migrants stranded in Libya and the situation in the main departure areas along the west coast of Libya, as well as from the main areas of departure in Egypt. In the case of migrants stranded for months in Libya, the reasons behind this delay in their departure.  In relation to the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Iraq try to gather as much information as possible.  Gather information regarding the participation of Libyan law enforcement or military personnel in smuggling activities.  Western and Central African migrants: if they chose to cross Mali instead Niger towards Algeria and further Libya. The reasons behind this decision.  In the incidents arriving from Egypt: - Try to gather information about the route from the Horn of African countries, the crossing of the SudaneseEgyptian border.  - The situation in Aswan - The measures (if any) taken by the Egyptian authorities in Egypt to tackle the illegal immigration. In those incidents arriving from Turkey try to get information about the offers and advices done by the smugglers to the migrants.  Obtain information with regard to people smuggling networks operating in the EU involved in the smuggling of migrants from Italy to other EU Member States.  Increasing number of Moroccans. Reasons behind this increasing flow. Modus operandi mainly focused in those arrived in Libya a few weeks/months ago.  In the case of migrants settled in compound safe houses, obtain information about the MO, the smuggling network and geo-coordinates in google maps (or similar application).  Please remember that processing personal data collected during the interviews is limited to personal data regarding persons who are suspected, on reasonable grounds, by the competent authorities of the Member States of involvement in: - cross-border criminal activities (CBC), and/or - illegal immigration activities or in human trafficking activities (THB) For the Screening Teams:  Pay attention when screening Horn of African migrants because of cases involving Ethiopian and Sudanese migrants claiming to be Eritrean (nationality swapping) in order to avoid repatriation.  Pay attention also, to those migrants claiming to be Syrian — some migrants of other nationalities are claiming to be Syrian.  Focus on female minors from sub-Saharan countries trying to pose as adults or young females being accompanied by adult males posing as their husbands or fathers (possible case of trafficking in human beings).  Difference Sudanese from South Sudanese during the screening process. LIMITED Statistics 2016 (1 January — 4 December) The JO Triton 2016 was launched on 1 February 2016 and it is planned to finish on 31 December 2016. Frontex Operations Division Risk Analysis Unit Warsaw, Poland Reference number: 24459/2016