\l I . Comelive. I. - electric climate? 4 There?s less housecleaning there. 1 LBE Ad Program for 1971 to Give Support to Local Marketing Efforts as It Focuses on ?Load Balancing? Electric Home Heating Theme will be ?The Electric Climate.? Electric . heating and water heaters will be featured . in the campaign; billion and a half consumer use i' I impressions are scheduled. THIS year?s Live Better Electrically Program?the advertising, publicity, and promotion?Will feature ?The Electric Climate.? Accent in the consumer ads will be on electric heating. The theme, ?The Electric Climate,? was developed from consumer research. Among many phrases tested, ?The Electric Climate? brought the most sig- ni?cant response in terms of electric heat, humidity control, air puri?cation, modernity, cleanliness and simplicity. Eighty?two percent of all those inter- viewed related this theme to all or total electric. This theme will be featured in all LBE consumer and trade advertising. It is ideally suited to local company advertising programs. It also lends support to industry eiforts to demonstrate that electricity is the answer to many environmental problems. The program will help to in?uence the kind of selective growth electric utilities need to: Provide service at the most reasonable cost. - Secure revenues needed for development of a better environment. t1 Saint College and Archabhcy put it into :1 new 107mm? square l'oor facility-and the faculty has been counting its blessings cxur Suml and .?rt?hahhey in Lalrc'lcl'tt'i'? tandem: One that unuid alien . .. - - .. - . - .v I I I Iorluturc welluslak(hum: nos Jilscleflm I I Win: 54ml treasurer. Kn Liana? I In In". l?UllLl ucl all the lg? . I I?ilcsicf Fin-?the l?casutl I I in "\tlt- and ?instructive ut Litminimal inninwnanrc that t: we, can) to dectdc h-r uni t. . I ?th homes. apartments and mu. ?t'uui' electric uttltu mil be glad in mm: all claim building: clct?trtc. heat the term tr?: DCl'lL?Llh the raw Ancihrr big reason tor choosing all was !lwl ?In In the new residence could have its own terns :\nd tenths-rs range in 31:: heart at the trim.ttnulush L'lL'k? true home then- ta. . tit-.ILE- 1110? .-., . . . -.-- . if Elli-cf,? Hug?. ?n?il'ltjli tm hunt .llht" unux mu a nu? kind trunk: (tin-Ilan an? .1 [hill-ll: In Full?? burnt? k' Ii ., . :1 ?.11h lit-lure nu: campus talk to - Hnurltl ll?'i l-lul-IHHL? ?dl In" I tuttr (tinlpu'l) and find out what the tin: heat. there's no wmhuatmn. .. . . .. 'l hut helps than. Result.? ?t'uu?ll llIlkl t'uu have mort- Live better electrically Move toward a cleaner world - :sn tins-d tut-u was 10"?17 unique advantages ol tritrn'mt :t . (an du t?ur \su hul blu?xlh all kl'lIl-IH- - Sm II t'nu?rt? to modernize. . I.. {if ., . Eta Citric ., . Climate ?wrth electric heating?will also be featured in this ad which will appear in college publications. . liy tinsel?I - trade ads of the Love Better toad- . .. ate" will he leatured In all consumer an with a balanced will focus on electric heating to provide electric utilities . 1971 15 o! ?n Come 1i in the The 0clean I Flameless electric heat is the heart of the most comfortable and clean home environment thereis . . .the electric climate. For when everything in your home is electric, starting with the heat, you enjoy a unique kind of warm comfort. You start your days brighter and live every day more enjoyably. The air in every room feels Live better electrically Move toward a better world. electric Minn: clean and fresh with electric heat. Why? Because instead of being heated by combustion, rooms are warmed flamelessly, by dependable electricity. Re- sult everything stays cleaner! That also means temperatures from floor to ceiling are even. No hot blasts. No sudden chills. Whether you plan to modernize, buy or build, Edison Electric Institute, 750 Third Avenue, New York, NY. 10017 IN TH HERE FBI-cent D. sis? of {ordl in!" ?rats lha The OhioEle See Page 14 The Emgo? g" etc-chic ll Wlh. Genm Ila air-WI: ?Ina {wail ?i'l'rbma 1g ?nnaumer' 9b a lute rtao by 8 it will pay you to learn more about the climate. The heating specialist at your clfL?l -, for homes, apartments, mobile homes, too. "Awarded to homes exemplifying clectricalexcellence?? Le necessary reinforce a main ounce, ell the ?gr )me heating .l deliver me It will sell country. It if he Electric .- rs as the are .1 Chicago, nd the mob, for ?The El 1 the compan liver rings on an ?vation incs inOakBrock, [or wings were cru- ngin :rs showed that all- iand engineers anngs ital syslems And ll :Imrical qullp- asull I m- k-ss space than ylu (s [y lo your serials BULLET Mobile home dealer, right, is reminded of ?The Electric Climate? through ads geared to the mobile-modular home market. There are 5 million mobile homes in use in America today. LBE ads are nationwide in scope, local in impact. They sell selectively to help the company improve the load factm'. I Consumer magamnes in which LBE ads ap- e?r are: Life, Louie, Better Homes {is Gardens and Amp-piggy. Home. These ads will feature only electric heating, and there will he a total of nearly 1V2 billion impressions. . In iL'tlrlitinll to the consumer magazines, ads Will be used in Time, News-week, U.S. News Wow; Report and Business Week. For the ?rst time, the schedule includes Harper's, The Atlantic and Salim-- d?y ?le-vigil: These three magazines were added for their balanced readership by those who are most aware of community problems and their responsi- bility to solve them. Electric Water Heaters Most electric water heaters are sold as replace- ments for old units, and frequent reminders are important to keep the advantages of electric water heaters constantly before home owners. Water heater ads will appear in Better Homes Gardens and its Home Improvement Ideas, Ameri- ican Home, House Beautiful and its Home Remodel- ing, House Garden, and its Remodeling Guide, Time, Newsweek, U.S. News World Report, and Living Now. The LBE advertising program is also designed to reach architects-engineers, schools and colleges, builders, mobile home consumers, restaurants, farms, and owner?managers. The publications which will be used for these efforts are: Record, Ar- chitectural Forum, Building Design Construction, Consulting Engineer, Actual Specifying Engineer, Heating, Piping Air Conditioning. Schools and colleges?Nation?s Schools and College and University Business. BLiilders??H0use Home, Professional Builder, NAHB Journal. Mobile Homes?~Mobile Home Park Management and Mobile Home Recreational Vehicle Dealer. Restaurants??Fast Foods, Nation?s Restaurant News, Food Service. (Continued on page 40) Electric water heaters also will be a major part of the LBE campaign. The successful LBE-manufacturer program will also be continued. JA FEBRUARY, 1971 The electric climate for mobile home dealers who want faster, i trouble??ee sales. - -. Ain- -- -L - Zl-v mm}. C. likus ll in because ht: seldom ?l NJ gels service cnll?haeks. II-JINII?i-rltl-n-d .iurnllivr \ltlii, A inmhean?rleriemlmess mnuncrmun um I n. hula-#11; her: he . rm cler- M. ?mum.- . un np-H-ll- - I businesses? a? Get ready for cold get a timeless electric water heater I All the hot water you want I Quiet. No flame. No pilot. No flue I Fits almost anywhere change In an electric water heater new?before Inc lie. Live better electrically Edison Electric Institute 750 Third Avenue, N.Y.. N.Y. 10017 The Electric Climate 18 for farmers who want better hvmg, more income. It?s a whole new wag \l hen the Wallis Hl' lun- it . in oflil't: for the Frank Wolffs. Harrington, Mass to at. it .- r..l i'rt'iilf a It doublet] their comfort tlectnr living,"tnts thingt m; min -. Ith '11: tit-Inn: at home and their milk to Wolff ii f-i ?mil: I- lit; production on the farm. ?For one thing I discovered! didn?t - -.. "pt: . -i.t have to clean house ume used to [hares plenty at hot l:l:ilt'l1' Mi water all the rind the heat is npt-mrii r. . Muf" smooth and steady. Quiet .is kitten, tool? at 4- at .. ieEJ i?li .: hi gut-J has the iarrnl Mr, Wolfh?iic 1" handle 70 ans now instead at to I And we?ve doubled our milk production to an orange til 2700 pounds :1 day "without hiring more helpl'l hat means. moic money in . . kitchens? elegantly The slogan appears again in farm ads. ,it-t. ,wuitiigu-nli ?iini-r .wr. 1..u!tiull.t. utiliti 1, Site um :I'Iil" i hull}; and llt'stia. I The electric climate 18 for engineers who want unlimited design ?exibilityMaintain the investor con?dence necessary provide needed capacity. The primary objective of LBE is to reinforce a help the local marketing program. The main ounce of this year?s advertising is to sell the ?gl- equalizer??load balancing electric home heating, However, LBE advertising also will deliver lite-a ingful messages to ?the in?uentials.? It will sell hu ness and civic leaders throughout the country. It .- carry the story of the bene?ts of ?The Electric mate? to such diverse decision-makers as the tire tect in Los Angeles, the engineer in Chicago, fast-food executive in Kentucky, and the miihi' modular home manufacturer in Indiana. LBE advertising also will be aimed at Inn,? builders, who are cornering an ever-increasing sh of local, residential, commercial and industrial e- struction. This kind of coverage would be expensi and dif?cult?if not impossible?for electric en panies to sponsor individually. With companies sharing the cost, LBE advertisi provides the most economical way for electric ii ities to communicate with important auction wherever they are. LBE advertising for ?The El tric Climate? is a good investment in the coroner: future in the new marketing climate. Here?s how it helped deliver important ?rst-cost savings on an 83,000 square foot reservation center for Eastern Airlines near Chicago. 0 rial sludt findingsolarchitects?engmenrs Holahird ii Roul at Chicago. showed that all- electric design was thr; way In gt: With all-electric design engineers sat-ed Eastern than u5t lIrSI-Eusl savings They sat-ed time and moncyi Electrical equipment is casicrunli to install than other system And ll mntinues I0 sari: money yearly since electrical cuulp~ docsn I I'qullrc a large maintenance Stall They saved space?Electrical uquipmenl Is 50 mm- paei it his almost illuwi'ltrc It takes lets spaci: than other 5) stems thurr: are no bulky lurnaces Talkie; our electric ultill) commnrand lind out how the min in: rliuiulr can add new llcxibilily in your next conurucllun assignment Eliminateslsoosallr i . I r, i_ f" 41L This builder ad shows the all-electric Eastern Airlines terminal in Chicago. EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE Mobile home dealer, right, is reminded of "The Electric Climate? through ads geared to the mobile-modular home market. There are 5 million mobile homes in use in America today. LBE ads are nationwide in scope, local in impact. They sell Selectively to help the company improve the load limb? . . . -. . Conwmw magamiies in which LBIS. ads writ ap- ear are: Lifer. Look, Belle-r iHl?l'il'leS r?r Gardens and Alttol'trmt Horne. These ads will feature only electric lienti?g- and there Will be a ?ital 0f nearly 11/: billion impresstuns. In addition to the consumer magazines, ads will be used in Tin-c. US. News 3; ?rm-lid Report and Business Week. For the ?rst; time. the schedule includes Harper?s, The Arlmmic and day Rel'lt?li'. These three magazines were added for their balanced reader-ship by those who are most aware of community problems and their responsi- bility to solve them. Electric Water Heaters Most electric water heaters are sold as replace- ments for old units, and frequent reminders are important to keep the advantages of electric water heaters constantly before home owners. Water heater ads will appear in Better Homes Gardens and its Home Improvement Ideas, Ameri- icon Home, House Beautiful and its Home Remodel- ing, House Garden, and its Remodeling Guide, Time, Newsweek, US. News World Report, and Living Now. The LBE advertising program is also designed to reach architects-engineers, schools and colleges, builders, mobile home consumers, restaurants, farms, and owner-managers. The publications which will be used for these efforts are: Record, Ar- chitectural Forum, Building Design Construction, Consulting Engineer, Actual Specifying Engineer, Heating, Piping Air Conditioning. Schools and colleges?Nation?s Schools and College and University Business. Builders?House Home, Professional Builder, NAHB Journal. MObile Homes?Mobile Home Park Management and Mobile Home Recreational Vehicle Dealer. Restaurants?Fast Foods, Nation?s Restaurant New-9. Food Service. (Continued on page 40) Electric water heaters also will be a major part of the LBE campaign. The successful LBE-manufacturer program will also be continued. 1971 The electric climate is for mobile home dealers who want faster, trouble-free sales. C. Alatiricc Iuhnsun llkl'b it because he gets service call-hacks. At his cost 01'525 a call -back, that?s reason enough. list ready for cold get a timeless electric water heater or All the hot water you want In Quiet.? No flame. No pilot. No flue I Fits almost anywhere change an electric water heater now-helm it's too late. Live better electrically Edison Electric Institute 750 Third Avenue, N.Y., N.Y. 10017 The electric climate I ., . - .Iv? .. .- . It lets Clyde Smith milk Three years ago, milking and feed- and feed 75 cows unassisted, ing 75 cows was a mighty big iob for and Mrs. Smith Mr. Clyde Smith ofAlvort,Texas. But enjoys a more comfortable 512cc he sw1tched toLIteelectlizc climate .f too! (I at. means everyt mg?s in- home 1? 9: eluding the heat), he smg-le-handedly completes the milking and feeding in two hours. The electric climate saves him money, too, besides time and effort. "Awarded to homes excm plifying cleclrical excellence? Live better electrically Edison Third Avenue, Nev. York. Y. 100? And Mrs. Smith? She?s tickled p' overtheirnew flameless electric ho It has steady, even heat, lots of 11' water, and the whole house sta cleaner than ever before. I, Call your local electric utility let them show you how the rim? climate can make your farm operatic more efficient. '33 {5:9 The electric climate can do more than he . make your home less . It?s a superior indoor environment that can make a_ny kind of building cost less to it can help the outdoor environment, too! Consider what the bene?ts of the electric climate can mean to you as a homeowner. And as a cost?conscious, people-conscious executive. And as a civic-minded citizen. The human bene?ts of the electric climate: Flameless electric heat is the heart of the electric climate. It ?lls rooms with a soft, even warmth that can?t be matched for comfort. No draft}: corners. No sudden chills. Except for the comfort, you hardly know it?s there?whether you?re in your electrically heated home or of?ce or church or school. Think how much better people live and play and learn and work in such a pleasant environment. The dollar value bene?ts of the electric climate: The initial cost of ?ameless electric equipment that results in the electric climate is com- parable to or lower than other types. Requires little or no maintenance. And the cost of electricity remains a real bargain! The environmental bene?ts of the electric climate: Buildings with the electric cli- mate put nothing into the air around them. . .because electric- ityis the cleanest source of energy there is at its point of use. Gen- eration of electricity by combus? tion methods produces by? products that cause pollution, but these lay?products can be controlled at modern power plants. In fact, the electric utility industry is a pioneer in the de- velopment and installation of pollution control devices and, of course, is actively engaged in even further improving the tech- niques of control ef?ciency. The electric climate promises a better future. Find out more from your electric utility. You, your company and your community will bene?t. Live better electrically Move toward a better worldalt Norm. Dublin mlaldji 0' cm 1nd? Incoming Edison Electric institut Chairman She (center) is congratulated by outgoing :32: Mans?eld {right} as Frank War . ran, the new Harris, who is President antiE are his Power 8: Li in Co. 1hall'tarren. President of Portland General Elgomc (Izcimiugir: acted by the Institute'e Board of Directors at the EEI 35th Annual Convention in Cleveland. nating Co. The speakers included: First General Sess1on, Monday afternoon, June Bruce Mans- ?eld, EEI Chairman and President of Ohio Edison Thomas G. Ayers, President, Commonwealth Edison Co., and Chairman, EEI Research Division Executive Committee; and John W. Simpson, Presi- dent, Power Systems Co., Westinghouse Electric Corp. Second General Session, Tuesday morning June 8 ??William F. Butler, Vice President and Chidf Econ- omist, The Chase Manhattan Bank; Paul Hallingby Jr., Vice Chairman, White, Weld CO Hon. John A. lCarver, Jr., I Power Commission. I and the Commissioner, Federal Third General Session, Wednesday morning, June 9?Professor Carroll L. Wilson, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- ogy; Sir Stanley Brown, C.B.E., Chairman Central Electricity Generating Board, London, England' Dr Edward E. David, Jr., Science Adviser to the Presi?I dent and Director, Of?ce of Science and Technology. Fourth General Session. Wednesdav afternoon June Q?Miss Patricia Carbine, Editorial DirectorI McCall?s Magazine; and William F. Buckley Editor-in-Chief, National Relic-m. I In his keynote address, Mr. Mans?eld said ?If 136 our environmental problem is so serio a us th 'tion to plan a long-range program of sui viva] dictates no growth whatever, pill surVIval may be the best We can expect 33m ting. . . H?al . a declining standard of living and a loss z. a better future among millions of people,? ope ?But if living on this earth is to be the Simpson. in the third address of the nftev I q?id that the growth of electric power demand 1; all; ?irresistible force? over which we have little a. . ewal. . one 1980. almost half the families in the expeiience it I . . ple,? Mr Ma?ggefde :Oi?dnfreasmg numbers of have an income of more than $17,000 a - 31 we must pursue tee . lj?n'd'thi? will rise to an even higher level by 1990. logical solutions and we must know With I .l - ., .tninly means more air conditioners, W'isliel'v greater accuracy the real envnronmental p-w. T1115 - . . . - i - within 11' .c time . i . rs, television sets, and other appliances creating 1C We may safely t; I I leniand for electricity. progress for humanity.? ?mum? "This," he explained, ?means that adherenc . the concept of no growth is just as ultimately damaging as following a th for its own sake.? igren'tei? ?l belieVe that in the long run this con?ict be- tween the demand for power and our environmental 13 will be resolved mainly by the use of nuclear energy? Mr. Simpson said. ?However, we also will have to depend upon fossil fuels for a long time to till'tll'llnen?il' come, and these fuels present special problems of should: price. Supply. and environmental effect." pernicious and 601')? Of ?While solutions must he found for en Mr. Mans?eld said, ?the sulu no involve curtailm - I QUite to the itiflelhs: gig-tElFFlI'WiWr He went on, ?Our energy situation is receiving is the answer to environmental Hijfnerx? considerable attention these days, especially from increasing recognition in govern 8' here 3 the government. It has been made abundantly clear of the growing need for more that there is an urgent need for a coherent policy to waste products sewage govern our use of energy fuels.? He cited the Senate control, stack einission controls Interior and Affairs committee TaSk Force the internal combustion lives which is investigating such a policy and predicted ngine. that some kind of energy policy will be formulated intensified Research and Development for this country? Mr. Simpson summed up by saying, expect that we will lessen our dependence upon oil and gas be- cause of supply problems. Coal production must in- crease in the face of all the problems that now beset this industry. But above all, nuclear power is the Mr. Ayers, second speaker on Monday afternoon called for intensi?ed electric utility research and development to safeguard air, water, and land re- sources. ?Environmental pressures are upon us now,? he Said ?By being leaders 0th in cleanu - . search, we will gain public con?dence mOSt Important source Of an adequate Simply 0f In so doing, our industry Stands to become the . electricrty with minimal environmental effects for future energy managers of society.? this nation in coming decades. The Chicago utility executive said, ?Traditionally we have had a pluralistic approach to Research has been conducted independently and in various combinations by the equipment manufacturers utili- ties, and the Federal government. It is estimated that research expenditures by utilities and manu- facturers related speci?cally to electric utility equip- ment are running at more than $150 million a year.? suggest that the electric utilities must start thinking in terms of an commitment that represents a much larger cost of doing business. We must continue to improve present methods and achieve new methods of generating and transmitting electric power economically and reliably. And all of our facilities must be engineered and built with an to minimizing the impact on the natural environ- ment. Only in this way can we expect to become the energy managers for the future.? .Mr. Ayers pointed out that the six-year-old Elec? tric Research Council established an Goals TaSk Force last fall and said ?a clear de?nition of 113? search goals and priorities will put our industry 1'11 a .- . EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN The ?rst speaker Tuesday morning, Mr. Butler, Said that the economic situation for the next 12 to 18 months is better than it now seems. He explained, ?The major change next year will be a pickup in business investment with a 12 to 15 percent recovery in pro?ts this year, a better balance between capacity and output by the end of this year, and the continued need for modernization. All of these should combine to produce at least a 10 percent rise in capital ex- penditures next year.? He added, ?This, along with the continued strength in consumer markets, housing starts, state and local government spending, should make 1972 a good year for business, with real growth of 5 percent or so, as against less than 3 percent this year.? The bank economist predicted that short-term in? terest rates will ?uctuate around current levels in the near future, followed by a ?rming trend, while long-term rates will ?uctuate around a moderate downward trend from recent unusually high levels. Looking ahead at the remainder of the decade, Mr. Butler said, ?We see, generally, a balance in long-term interest rates over the second half of the 1970?s, and something in the range of, say, 6 to 61/2 percent.? Hallingby Speaks Mr. Hallingby was the morning?s second speaker. Referring to the longer-range market, he said, think the long rate will center around an 81/2 percent level, with occasional swings into the 9 percent area when in?ationary pressures are strong and into the seven-ish area when price structures seem to be relatively more stable.? He said that the common-stock market for electric utilities recently has been quite good, and that some very large new issues have been sold successfully at or even above last-sale prices. He added, ?So, all things considered, the capital markets seem to be giving quality issuers, such as your industry, a pretty fair shake. You just have to accustom your- selves to widely ?uctuating markets and to the costs of capital that prevail and make sure that investors have con?dence in the ?nancial integrity of your enterprise.? Commissioner Carver, the last speaker of the morning, discussed his belief that ?one-stop? certi?- cation procedures for plant siting may not work out in practice. He predicted that companies will come to see that there remains an advantage in dealing with people familiar with local needs. He said that hard ?nal decision in Albany, Raleigh, or Sacramento, it is likely to be quicker than getting one in Washington. Ashton B. Collins, left, Chairman of Reddy Kilowatt, Inc. presents the too award in the annual report competition to Herbert B. Cohn, Executive Vice President, American Electric Power Co., Inc ll? I OF It may take experience to teach them, but the Providing electricity ?necessarily involves some he I I?ief which I ?nd to exist in the Administration?s changes in the total environment," he said, "but this he Wile bill of committing Federal functions to state is almost a de?nition of civilization, and the changes 3" II. ??llies under Federal gliid?lnes arid allhject to are not necessarily unacceptable to an enlightened 31.31 vetoes will eventually he recognized by the public?even those with the highest standards? he [?lm industry as being quite antithetical to their provided always that suf?cient care is taken.? 1g tel-est in qlliCkEI' dECiSihn?r" M11 Carver said. In his address to the Convention, Dr. David re? he wumthuugh by the year 2000 we expect global ferred to President Nixon?s message on energy. By :11; mm] power output to be six times the present J'O?ining the President?s programs, he pointed out, =tll31 in not expect it t0 affect glnbal climatey the utility industry can continue to play its part in I ileveh :Irrofessm. 333d In Wednesday mm-nmg'g 1mprov1ng the quahty of American hfe 1n the years i ?rst addres? ahead. He explalned that the Pres1dent?s message l, K. E. BOWEN E. CORETTE He added, however, that power output over cities 3101?s to an accieratlon of pro?le?? at: .53., I gagging; $246521- Illinois giggn?an alga .udoeS already create ?heat islands? and. as these grow 9 kel? to 13013 adequate gower an 6 ean 311? an i?q Co. Efeiliile??ii and Philadelphia Electric?gt. larger. the): mar here'jresional climatic effects and water In the decades 3 ea - f. .. .i the? Should be Stumed' New Federal Initiatives ht I The MIT professor said. ?It is likely that the prin- . h- icipa] impact in terms of c?mate change will arise, I Dr. Dav1d outllned a range of'new Federal 1n1t1a- n" I if it dues. the combustion Of hydrocarbons. If a t1ves and commitments to help insure clean energy . I I wnsensus arose that we had to limit or curtail the Supp'hes? Contalm? 11} the .PreSldent 5. mess-age He j- i- i use m- hydrocarbons bacause of their impact on the cautioned that it 1mphes reliance on prlvate-lndustry e_ I c?mnte, the implications would be enmmous. our for major The message prov1ded for: only present alternative wguld be nuclear power and 1. New leasing programs to make available the 3, I an soc1ety. I I . resources on Federal lands. In dlscussmn .Of Garb?? dlomde the almos' 2. Initiation of the Cascade Improvement Pro- a" 31?. Pherle? PrOfessor Wllson sand that ,a'll CombuStlon 0f gram at gaseous di?usion plants to insure . SHEARON HARRIS A. v. HARTL fowl..me hpfiogucis? carbgn .deld?' He.0b,served an adeqnate supply of nuclear fuel. T: Chairman/President, President, p?lR-Ld JR- B. that if we a 0 op pro ucmg carbon d10x1de, no 3 New measures for ener conservation (gaging) Power Otter Tail Power Co. Didi: glider Co. iz?gtgial?e?anss coal, 011, or gas could be burned, and all modern 3'societies would come to a halt? 4: call for prompt. actlon on the lg I ?It does seem to me an era both of problems and Eon power?plaht b11l. . It: Special Opportunities for this great industry. New 9. I A reaf?rmatlon of the des1rab111ty of the sulfur II I options will open up as fuel costs and environmental charge' constraints change your choices. Gas turbines, d-c 6- A requeSt for support 0f the Department Of - ll transmission lines, and Off_sh0re power Stations on Natural Resources, which will consolidate all im- I - the surface 01. submerged must enter your plan- portant energy resource development programs. 2: I. ning,? Professor Wilson declared. - ?The President?s energy message,? Dr. David said, 1' Experience in United Kingdom ?commits the nation in three priority energy I: areas?sulfur oxide control technology, the liquid- ?Experience in the United Kingdom demonstrates metal fast breeder, and coal gasi?cation. In this lf I R. G. MACDONALD 3313137 mind quite emphatically that With care effort, the government?s participation will be great- If iireg?egciyfgimm, Th - I gha?-TnELR??leiiE} a$d?5A$ I he IS COHSldel?ably less nnfaVOl?able ImPaCt 0n the est in the research and pilot plant stages. Industry?s DetrOTt Edison Co. gingiapw? Southwestern Electric Tia-w?icgfm ellVHOnmeht by the DYOVISIOH 0f necessary energy share will increase as commercial demonstration ap- 3 ea 0w? Yla the electrical 1?0th3 than by any other,? the morn' preaches. Industry must provide the major support ?195 Second speaker, Sir Stanley Brown, said. for demonstration plants.? 1' . ?Electl'iCity iS in fact the Only totally non-pollut- Miss Carbine reviewed the changes in employment {1 Eng fuel Other than pure hydrogen,? he emphaSiZE?d, and education among women as re?ected in the 1970 and Opponents ?60 the Changes inVOlVed in its 111- Census. more educated consumer, be it of ideas le creased generation ShOUld remember that the use or appliances, is going to ask tougher questions. She of the eleCtFiCitY SO generated mUSt be less P0111115ng needs straight, lucid information. She needs to than any alternative fuel.? understand possible malfunctions, as well as the The British utility executive stated that provision funCtionS Of a prOdUCt- She parts With her douar .g of electrical energy at the increasing 1evels de_ more carefully as in?ation trims its value. And as mended by an advancing civilization is not incom_ her daily life becomes more and more complex, she patjble with avoidance of pollution and the reserva- thinks of respite and deepens her concern I ?g . g) Gas and States THOMPSON 0f he de?ned as pleas'antq Electric Association Lrigliatnggohs Power Utilities Co. Of In all aspects, Inelu Ylsual eauty, landscape value, and architectural merit. She suggested explalning to the press and the T38 EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN T971 139 1 OLLOWING in the footsteps of such illustrious men as Bruce Mans?eld, Al Aymond, Bob Gerdes, and those before them is a tremendous responsibility which I undertake with considerable?even if un- characteristic?humility. I cannot accept this chairmanship from Bruce without ?rst using the occasion to pay my most sincere personal tribute to Bruce for his indefatig? able energy, his superb appreciation for the humani? ties involved in this assignment, his understanding of the issues, his unshakable courage, and the intel- lectual erudition of a true scholar. His demonstrated devotion during a year as Chairman of EEI sets a truly challenging example. It would be redundant indeed to review the Con? vention or repeat the consensus of high appreciation for a Wisely conceived and skillfully executed pro- gram. I simply salute one and all who had a hand in its planning and execution. Keen Awareness of Problems Needless to say, we are keenly aware of the prob- lems confronting us. Hopefully, this Convention has made us more determined than ever to ?nd their solutions. Perhaps we will arrive at some new variations on the old themes, but basically the coming year within Edison Electric Institute will be devoted to striving for and realizing goals that have already been clearly set by past deliberations. One of the great of the Institute is con? tinuity. While the Chairman may change, we are fortunate to have a continuing staff, headed by Pres- T42 Acceptance Remaiilg LIFTINC INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CALLED PRIMARY MISSION ident Don Crawford, coordinating today?s e?ort with yesterday?s policy that will be tomorrow?s During my in-training period as Vice Chairman, I have had occasion to observe from a closer vantage point the good fortune of our industry to, have the services of an extremely competent and devoted In- stitute staff. Priority on Unity of Purpose A great industry needs a great trade organization, and we have it in the Institute. The job of enlisting. the diverse attributes of individual members into a united front, speaking with a single voice, is a task which, in my opinion, we are handling with increas- ing success year after year. Our future challenges put a high priority on unity of purpose. During the next Institute year, we will be n'Ul'k? ing on many major challenges and a myriad 0f lesser ones. All of this effort will be directed toward our basic objective: an abundant electric energy supply at reasonable cost and compatible with app?? priate environmental considerations. Of course, W5: must ?nd the magic solutions to such opportunitia?' as siting problems and everybody else?s attempt ?solve? those problems, tight capacity position?. staggering construction and ?nancing programsr fuel supply, adequate earnings during in?ation?s slaught?and on and on?we all have some of them" However, lest we become so distracted by putti?g out brush ?res on a daily crisis basis that we dew? too little e?ort to some of our big long-range 0?1" portunities, I have concluded that the mission of leadership period should be an attempt to lift PM EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE Ninwn'ur of our industry in. the ?eld. of research am! dwarzirmntent. . our minds and imaginations have been stimulated at this Convention, particularly on Tom Ayers and this morning by Dr. Edward David. Allow me to lead you through an- other Step in re?ecting on some of the major in- hibiting or retarding forces and how we may unlock a powerful forward thrust in In the American free enterprise industrial frame- work, the most powerful force for stimulating has been the incentive of pro?t. In the case of regu- lated utilities no such incentive is present. To the calm-art; due to the emphasis on our national policy expressed in the concept of ?low-cost electric energy" there has been at least a counterproductive atmos- Phere? or, as my engineer associates hare recently taught me to say, there has been a negative in~ centiVe. Who Profits from Who pro?ts from that makes better use of fuel resources, that reduces the environmental im- pact of electrical facilities, or that improves the quality of life? Not the common stock investor or the management of the company. The one who gains is the user, the consumer, our public. We must ?nd an acceptable way to let those calcu- lated to enjoy the bene?ts of in the production, transmission, and distribution of electricity claim those bene?ts which are rightfully theirs. A signi?- cant be-ginning has been made in the work of the Goals and Finance Task Forces of the Electric Research Council. The concept of a surcharge, which has been suggested, to be applied voluntarily by each electric supplier with approval of regulation is a sound approach and I shall give it my most enthusi? astic and dedicated support. We do not need to be apologetic about our past level of commitment to research and development. The issue is not whether we should have done more but the issue is what needs to be done now and how Should We do it. The electrical equipment manufacturers have per- formed important which has been supported by our eCluipment purchases and this should continue. The Electric Research Council does not and should never displace their work. I suggest that the func- {ion of the ERC is in that part of the ?eld that Involves undertakings requiring resources beyond the interest and capability of individual manufac- turers or companies. I do suggest that the-re are four speci?c areas re- quh?ing attention now that will make claim upon the 1111mid effort of the utility industry, manufacturers, and government: Desulphurization of fossil fuels, the near-term I?0ute to making 1,000 years? supply of coal available for use without ecological degradation, 1971 The fast-breeder reactor, a longer-range route to energy conversion ef?ciencies on the order of 50 to 75 times today?s light-water reactors. A signi?cant step forward toward achieving useful power from thermonuclear fusion. This technology holds promise for solution of many of our fuel and environmental problems of the future and deserves commitment now, if we want to have it ready for use 30 years from the time we make such a commitment. 0 Underground transmission technology, a need that becomes increasingly pressing as power requirements grow. This by no means completes the catalogue of our research and development goals. These are areas in which we should succeed eventually in balancing the economic needs for electric energy with the environ- mental ideals of the Good Life. While such efforts move toward realization, we need also to perfect communications which convince the public?all our customers?that we are the heroes, not the villains, of this ev?er-so-popular en? vironmental scenario. We will deliver all the elec- tricity this and future generations need, with a sane energy-environment balance. On Monday, Tom Ayers termed a modern equivalent of one of the labors of the mythical hero Hercules. will be indeed a Herculean task, but we will eschew the methods of our hero of old. We will clean whatever Augean stables need cleaping, but we will not ?ush the pollution into any River Alpheus. To be a hero today, Hercules would need a new approach! Clear and Convincing Communications Until we haVe the job completed, we must rely upon clear and convincing communications with the public to refute today?s ill-advised, emotionally charged alarmists. Some of them would have us stunt the growing boy for fear he will outgrow his present pants! ?Zero growth? calls for ignoble retreat into the primitive past. Our commitment is made not only to today?s America, but, more important, we are obligated to the millions of new Americans of to- morrow. Even conservative demographers estimate that our population will grow to at least 265,000,000 by the year 2000. At the population growth rate of the Sixties, we would pass the 300,000,000 mark before the year 2000. Rather than deny these Americans the comforts and conveniences of clean energy, our industry is obligated to provide the supporting power for their economic, social, and physical well-being. Earlier I said unity of purpose deserves a high priority. The position in which our industry stands today leaves us little occasion to indulge in ?prima (Continued on page 206 we kill cedures being formulated for developing and ?nanc? ing new research, and with the cooperative efforts through the Electric Research Council of both the investor-owned and government sectors, it seems clear that the motivation and framework exist to ?nance and carry out many of the increasing re- search requirements of our industry. What Benefits Might Be Expected? Now let?s examine the ?fth question?what bene- ?ts might be expected from an intensi?ed program? There are three broad areas in which a greater commitment to promises to pay off. The ?rst is environmental compatibility?that is, in improving the advantage which electricity already holds as the cleanest form of energy. The economics and technology of controlling pol- lution favor large, centrally located generating facilities. Accelerated will further enhance the environmental compatibility of central station power. This will occur as research overcomes such problems as sulfur removal from stack gases, coal gasi?cation, improved thermal ef?ciencies, better ways of dissipating waste heat, and cleaner methods of production, including fuel cells, breeder reactors, and fusion. The second major category in which intensi?ed promises dividends is in making optimum use of our limited fuel resources, both fossil and uranium. It appears that nuclear power offers the best op- portunity for reconciling our nation?s energy needs with its environmental goals. It also appears that the fast breeder reactor will be essential to achieving the full potential of nuclear power. The late Com- missioner Theos Thompson of the AEC used to say that there is enough uranium in this country to keep water reactors going for 40 years, but, with the breeder, the same uranium resources will last a thousand years. This, to our way of thinking, should place breeder development in the forefront of na- tional research priorities. Looking at the near term, the liquid-metal fast breeder holds the most promise. With over six years of successful operation of EBR II, with SEFOR at full power, with the operations at Fermi, with par- allel achievements abroad, and with the Atomic Energy Commission component development and testing program, adequate technology and experi? ence exist to warrant going ahead with the liquid- metal breeder. The next step, it seems to me, should be the construction of at least two and preferably three demonstration plants in the 300-megawatt electrical range, with the ?rst plant committed for construction in the immediate future. The feasibility and timing of the second and third plants depend primarily on the availability of adequate funds. The step up from the 300-megawatt level to a commer- cially feasible breeder in the LOGO?megawatt size is 160 a reasonable one. Two or three demonstration would promote ef?ciency through competition nelp build a viable industrial fast-breeder comm the United States. This would also Spread . technical risk and see that the job is done right It. . done on time. The biggest obstacles to going ahead with demonstration plants are raising the money, alln ing the ?nancial risks, and satisfying environmen requirements. I am not optimistic about the utili?; and manufacturers by themselves closing the gap tween promised funds and projected costs. The hu, initial cost estimates for the demonstration plan- together with the risks of cost overruns and came: . unavailability, impose special problems for tho, I breeder demonstration plants. The Federal go.on ment will have to provide a much larger share 0ft funding, if these plants are to be built in the near future, and must take responsibility for envim?. mental compliance. Looking toward the end of this century, intensi?ed- should lead to new and more ef?cient metho?a. of generation. For example, new strides are being, made in controlled fusion. Chairman Seaborg of the ABC has said: ?Because fusion power plants (Will)- operate at high conversion e?iciences?60 percent or higher?they will greatly reduce problems asso. ciated with waste (and) what waste heat they do produce could be more readily used because such plants could be located in the very center of urban complexes.? Fusion also would provide an un- limited source of power and greatly minimize the problem of radioactive waste disposal. The third area of expected payo? is in get- ting answers to some of the di??icult high-technology engineering problems. This might include higher- capacity overhead and underground a-c and d-c transmission, miniaturized components, cleaner fossil fuel boilers, and possibly cryogenically cooled generators. Such advances would minimize the en- vironmental impact and improve the ef?ciency and economics of our systems. The bene?ts would accrue to all utilities, large and small alike. Why Commit Now? Turning to the ?nal question?why commit now? Why is this the time of decision for intensi?ed First, with a 7 percent compound growth rate of electric energy expected over the next 10 to 20 years, more research needs to be done on new and improved ways of generating, transmitting, and distributing power. Our industry must meet its responsibility to provide an adequate supply of reliable electricity. We simply cannot afford to defer lest we ?nd ourselves in the position of doing ?too little, too late.? Second, our nation now has to face up to the ?nite- ness of its fuel reserves. We must do our utmost not (Continued on page 168) EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN anon? John W. Simpson Preside? a must pursue the philosophy that electric power is a ?source vital to our social and economic well-being; we Ecrmc on Power Systems Co., Westinghouse Electric Corp. 5t use wisdom in the management of our fuel supplies; ?In the industry and the manufacturers that serve it must take steps to keep the costs of this important resource to the ultimate consumer as low as possible. all heard a lot of talks about the future of electric poorer?some of them at EEI conventions in the past. But I think today, in the light of 1971, we can take another look at electric power?s future, and perhaps the ball will tell us a few things we couldn?t have seen last year. I believe that all of us here?most of us, anyway ??are dedicated to the proposition that growth is not a dirty word. But some people in this country believe otherwise. Those notorious ?doubling to ?80; 1980 to ?90. Twice the kilowatt-hour consumption in 1980 than last year; four times the consumption in 1990. One billion, three hundred million kilowatts of electric capacity in 1990. These are ?horror sta- tistics? to those kinds of people who think that all power polluters. There have been solemn recommenda~ tions that we must slow down on the use of electric power and other forms of energy before our little planet becomes unl-ivable. But the growth of electric power demand is an irresistible force over which we have little control. Our population will grow by 55 million between now and 1990. Many of those who will be getting jobs and setting up homes in the decades ahead are al- ready born. Their standard of living will be con? siderably higher. By 1980, almost half the families in the US. will have an income of more than $15,000 a year and this will rise to an even higher level by 1990. This certainly means more air conditioners, Washer-dryers, television sets, and other appliances Creating a greater demand for electric power. Electricity powers industrial output. The nation itheolutely cannot expand the economy and I'Educe unemployment without a corresponding increase in An address before the 39th Annual Convention 0f Edison Electric Institute, Cleveland, Ohio, June 7, 1971. 1971 power consumption. Increased farm and crop pro? duction will demand more electric power because, as someone said recently, they?re just not printing any more land. A host of other forces in the category of national social goals also will push up the demand for power: a cleaner environment, redevelopment of blighted areas, expanded and improved health services, full employment, mass rapid transit, cleaner air, pure drinking water, streams and rivers free from wastes, and the recycling of waste products. We know that the demand will rise tremendously, and we know we must supply the pOWer to keep this country on an even Social and economic keel. Yet as the pendulum of environmental and ecological activ- ism swings further from the equilibrium of rea? soned approaches to the problem, we are ?nding it increasingly di?icult to meet that demand for power. Environmental Evangelists Those environmental evangelists who fret about how electric carving knives and toothbrushes are adding to pollution think they can curb the demand for power by cutting down on the supply. Thus you have intervenors causing extended and expensive delays during hearings, or calling for moratoria on nuclear plants or promoting legislation to curb the use of electric power. In some cases, utilities have been pushed by en- vironmentalists to installing costly equipment to re? duce radionuclide emissions or thermal effects whether such equipment is actually needed or not. It was recently calculated that as a result of installing cooling towers at a typical nuclear plant we could justi?ably assign a value of about $1,200 per pound to protect the ?sh in the cooling lake. That makes for very expensive ?shing. Those who advocate that we freeze electric power 161 til 15Figure 1 consumption or cut back on its use haven?t con- sidered all the implications. Do they realize that such measures would constitute economic and social repression? Freezing our consumption or cutting back would be tantamount to sentencing the millions of disadvantaged and underprivileged people in this country to those very conditions they are struggling to rise above. Freezing electric power use would freeze the number of jobs in the economy; with no more power, we could buy no more appliances; with- out additional power, we cannot clear away the ghettos and develop adequate low-cost housing, and we could not provide the schools and services we must have to achieve our social goals. These limousine liberals apparently aren?t aware that such conservation measures would repress and discriminate against those millions of people whose lot in life they should be trying to improve. I propose that electric power-Hin increasing amounts?is essential to maintain and improve not only the natural environment in this country, but our total environment??the total environment re? flecting such things as our standard of living, the quality of our housing. the comfort of our surround- ings, freedom from time-consuming chores, the quality of our leisure, proper health care, and modern transportation and in formation systems. Technology as a Villain Technology has come under attack as a villain that is despoiling our planet, but technology is not a force that can be made subject to moral judgments of good or load. right or wrong. Technology is only a tool, and it is a tool that has served mankind well. More than anything else, technology sets man free. It frees us from constant preoccupation with the search for food and the battle against the elements. In setting us free, it has allowed us at the same time to elevate to the highest levels those social and hu? man values that so many people seem to believe are lacking in today?s society. Some currents of opinion condemn the generation of electricity for its alleged sins against the environ? 162 Figure 2 ment. Rather than allow electric power to be ad_ judged a sinner, we must promote its message as a savior, which has played a major role in bringing to mankind a new freedom and the resulting possibili. ties for further enhancement of the cultural and humanistic aspects of our society. I believe that in the long run this con?ict between the demand for power and our environment-a1 goals will be resolved mainly by the use of nuclear energy, However, we also will have to depend upon fossil fuels for a long time to come, and these fuels present special problems of price, supply, and environmental e?eot. There is an impending energy fuels crisis. We don?t face the crisis now, in 1971, but if steps aren?t taken formulate our fuels policy, serious de?cits between the demand and the supply of fuels for power generation could develop in the latter 70?s and in the 1980?s. At present, coal for 58 percent of all steam electric power generation in this country: the share for natural gas is 28 percent, and oil's share is 12 percent (Fig. 1). But we can look for dramatic changes to take place in this fuel mix in the coming decades. We have abundant reserves of coal, in the ground. The problems at the present with coal, as you know, lie in the areas of transportation, production, and environmental eiiects. We are largely dependent upon railroads for the transportation of coal. and the problems that face this industry will certainlyr affect the cost and availability of coal in the future. The Mine Health and Safety Act of 1969 is begin- ning to have effects within the in- dustry, with the result that prices and pruductio" are seriously ail?ected. Demands for higher wages and a declining labor force will further push up prices and affect availability. We have projected a price of $10.90 a ton in 1985 compared to $3.92 in 1968. But the price delivered to the power plant does not re?ect the true cost of using coal to generate electric power. The public has long been paying the hidden costs of the environmental effects of mining EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN Figure 3 and burning coal, and now this cost is being trans- ferred to the utility in the form of emission control equipment. Ultimately the cost shows up in the con- sumer?s electric bill. To meet air quality regulations, many utilities have scrambled for residual oil and natural gas. But each of these alternatives is faced with serious Supply problems in the future. I believe that there is unanimous agreement within the gas industry that there is a serious short- age of natural gas production in the country. Figure 2 shows total net production as compared with new gas additions from 1946 up to the present. Note that in 1968 production began to substantially exceed new additions as the discovery rate sharply declined. Figure 3 shows gas demands projected over do- mestic production and imports up to 1985. The de?cit in 1985 is about 10 trillion cubic feet a year. The importation of liqui?ed natural gas and im- port-s from Canada and Alaska cannot solve the supply problem, because demand will be even greater than total supply including these sources. Figure 4 shows our projections of the price of gas to utilities, and it doubles between 1970 and 1985, assuming the producers would be willing to take on new utility customers. There are exceptions, how- ever, in the states of Texas and Oklahoma. TOTAL POWER GENERATION I980 a Figure 5 I971 Gas Price i/mcf 4B 44 GAS PRICE PROJECTIONS 404, new 321 a 244 Figure 4 Vl?ith demand for natural gas growing at a yearly rate of 4.2 percent, double the growth in production, with discovery rates at disastrously low levels, with prices to utilities expected to double, and the demand for gas in more essential applications growing, we have concluded that natural gas will not be a signi?- cant boiler fuel for future generation additions and will cease to be a factor altogether in the utility in- dustry by 1990. Our projections indicate gas drop- ping from 28 percent of total power generation to- day to 10 percent in 1980 and down to about 4 per- cent in 1990. (Fig. 5). What, then, is the outlook for oil? Total demand for petroleum in the U.S. will rise steeply between now and 1990, with transportation and industrial demands accounting for the large majority of total consumption. Consumption now is 15 million barrels a day; by 1990 it may be as high as 32 million barrels a day (Fig. 6). Figure 7 compares domestic spare capacity and total imports in the U.S.?and it shows that, for many years, we had su?icient spare capacity to take care of whatever contingency arose with petroleum imports. Since 1967, however, we have been import- ing more petroleum to meet our demand with the result that there is a widening de?cit between pro- ductive capability and total consumption. Domestic O-ll COHSUHPIIOH Figure 6 163 v- ti t1 St SPARE PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY OF 0.3? PETROLEUM INDUSTRY 3 manna . mm! plum ILL CAPACITY Figure 7 production cannot meet total demand, and we must rely upon imports. Let?s look at one facet of the petroleum picture? residual oil, which is important as a fuel for electric power generation. With no import restrictions on residual -oil on the east coast, utilities have turned to imported low-sulphur residual to meet ever-tighten- ing air quality standards. Residual fuel oil consumption by U.S. utilities in- creased 190 percent from 1965 to ?70 and is forecast to increase 103 percent over the period 1970 to ?75, leveling off with an 18 percent rise between 1975-80 to a total consumption of 800 million barrels yearly (Fig. 8). This represents generating capacity equiv- alent to over 100,000 megawatts, about two-thirds of which will be located along the eastern seaboard. I question the wisdom of allowing that much capacity to become dependent upon foreign sources for its fueL Our energy situation is receiving considerable at- tention these days, especially from the government. It has been made abundantly clear that there is an urgent need for a coherent policy to govern our use of energy fuels. The Senate Interior and Insular Affairs Committee, for instance, has established a special task force to investigate such a policy and Figure 9 164 TOTAL U.S. ELECTRIC UTILITY . RESIDUAL OIL CONSUMPTION 106 3mm: i IND 1965 1970 Figure 8 determine what direction it might take. I think we can predict safely that some kind of energy policy will be formulated for this country, and I further believe that it is possible to at least outline the over- all direction of such a policy. Looking into the ball, I see four major steps that could be taken. One: Strong encouragement will be given to in- creased production of natural gas, because demand for this fuel is rising steeply in such essential uses as residential heating and industrial processes. The increased use of natural gas to generate electric power will not be encouraged because alternative fuels are available, and gas will be out of the market as a boiler fuel. Two: In the interest of national security, steps will be taken to curb our dependence upon imports of petroleum from foreign sources, especially from countries with immature or unstable governments. Domestic production of oil will be stepped up to make the country as self-suf?cient as is possible. However, in the case of power generation, the eco- nomics of domestic re?nery production and the lack of adequate desulphurization facilities in the U.S. prevent domestic sources from supplying anywhere near the demand for residual oil that we have ANNUAL COAL CONSUMPTION BY ELECTRIC UTILITIE Figure 10 EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN Figure 11 projected. At the present, east coast utilities depend on foreign sources for 93 percent of all residual oil consumed for power generation. Residual oil will diminish in importance as restrictions grow tighter on such imports. The same probably will hold for imported low-sulphur crude oil. The next points involve, of course, nuclear power and coal. Figure 9 is our latest projection of generating capacity additions by fuel type from now to 1990. Note that the intermediate-type generation accounts for about 40 percent of total additions or about 400 gigawatts. Also note that coal takes a major share or 258 gigawatts of the intermediate total. This estimate differs substantially from other projections, which assign a much greater share to gas and oil. This projection indicates to me that coal, contrary to what many have said, has a very bright future before it?if, however, the industry can solve its production problems and make coal meet air quality standards (Fig. 10). New Technology for Coal I believe that there is a tremendous opportunity for the development of new technology for mining and transporting coal (Fig. 11). One of the solutions ?50 fossil-fuel environmental problems?and Westing- house projects a tremendous market here?is the use of combined-cycle intermediate load plants used in conjunction with a coal gasi?er. We are presently developing such a concept, and we believe that such plants can all but eliminate the problem of gaseous and particulate emissions and reduce thermal eifects SUbstantially as compared with a conventional coal plant on a kilowatt basis. The point to be made with respect to a coal policy in our future energy mix is that we should look for Ways to improve the combustion of coal to remove Stack gases, or to develop the concept of gasi?cation, and for ways to increase production. We must have InOre coal and cleaner coal. NOW we come to nuclear power. Westinghouse, ?1 just the last month, increased our estimate of nuClear?s share of total additions in the next two 1971 mummy-cuss Metastases Plan: Figure 12 decades by some 140 gigawatts because of our analysis of these problems with fossil-fuel supply and production. You have heard warnings that uranium may be in short supply in the decades ahead. Westinghouse?s assessment of the uranium reserve and supply situa- tion is that this fuel will be available in suf?cient quantities well up into the 1990?s when we expect the fast breeder reactor to come into play as a source for nuclear fuel. The breeder reactor, which pro- duces more fuel than it consumes (Fig. 12) will save the industry an estimated $21 billion over a 35-year period, assuming introduction of the breeder in 1985. But if we are to realize the tremendous bene?ts of the breeder reactor, we must move quickly to begin construction of competitive breeder reactor demon- stration plants. Adequate funding must be secured for at least two such plants, and these funds must be committed soon. A national energy policy with regard to nuclear power would stress the great im- portance of the breeder reactor program and the necessity of keeping nuclear power on its timetable. If nuclear power is allowed to slip, we will face serious energy de?cits that cannot be met with alternate fuel sources. And speaking of nuclear power, Westinghouse re- cently announced a new development that I feel will help keep nuclear on its schedule?the platform? mounted nuclear reactor (Fig. 13). We have formed a division to develop this concept, in which a full-size nuclear power plant would be built on a concrete and steel barge and towed to an offshore location for installation in a utility?s specially constructed site. A breakwater would be built to protect the plant, and power would be transmitted to shore?a couple of miles?by underwater cable. The platform re- actor, I am con?dent, will help tremendously with the siting problem, and will contribute to signi?cant nuclear capital cost reductions. To sum up, then, I expect that we will lessen our dependence upon oil and gas because of supply prob- lems (Fig. 14). Goal production must increase in the 165 them from anarchy. . . All the particular circum- stances which tend to make the state of a demo- cratic community agitated and precarious enhance the general propensity and lead private persons more and more to sacri?ce their rights to their tranquility.? Another thread, or common theme, is that there has been no settling-in, no shaking-out, no process of accommodation and adjustment. Social Security, Agricultural Adjustment, Resettlement, even NBA, and a lot of other new and untried programs were added to the responsibilities of the Federal bureauc- racy in an earlier decade, with less disruptiveness. Jet transportation, national press and national TV, the Xerox machine, and national, electromagnetic of power systems hadn?t yet come about, so things had a better chance to adjust. Proposed laws then tended to be more brief, and one had the impression then, as one does not have now, that witnesses advocating legislation had read and understood it. Congress itself was less likely, then, to pass bills which were mutually contradic- tory. Administrations seemed more chary of recom- mending that some bills be supported on exactly the same grounds urged for the defeat of others. I Speak, in this connection, of the underlying philoso- phy of the plant siting bill of the Administration as wholly inconsistent with its attitude about the Con- gressional alternative to its own revenue-sharing proposaL Reliability, Environment, Siting It was a utility executive, as I?ve already indi- cated, who simpli?ed the issues accurately to three ?re1iability, environment, and expediting siting de- cisions. Reasonable men di?er about the two sub- stantive issues. In the case of reliability, you and I have both argued that in the last ?ve years?and the subject was barely recognized as a problem before November 1965, and the Northeast blackout?the industry has an outstanding record using the voluntary route. As to environment, we have both argued that special environmental rules for the electric utility industry are not needed, and would be counterproductive. The matter of delay presents not a substantive, but rather an adjective, issue. There, your shoes pinch, and you are willing?some of you?to seek government help. How many examples have you out- lined in your testimony tending to show that Federal regulatory activity can speed state decisional proc- esses? I can name examples where quick-taking and eminent domain legislation can supplant state ac- tion, but even there it would have to be admitted that the social pressures for getting on with a war effort probably deserved more of the credit than the Federal legislation, In more recent years, the laws, rules, and regulations under the Federal interstate highway program have had to step in to resolve some 178 state siting impassea, but the fall-out of ill-will i such cases deserves to be evaluated by those who would rely on that precedent. All this boils down to my telling you that ?me, stop? certi?cation procedures may not Work out in practice. I was rather blunt about it in a speech I recently gave to a utility executives? conference Chicago, so I see no reason to be less so here. In thatwspeech, I predicted that companies wm come to see that there remains an advantage in {lea}, ing with people familiar with local needs. Translated, this means that as hard ?ne] de, cision in Albany, Raleigh, or Sacramento, it is like],r to be quicker than getting one in Washington. It. ll'lay take experience to teach them. but the mischief which I ?nd to exist in the Administration?s siting bill of committing Federal functions to state agen- cies under Federal guidelines and subject to Federal vetoes will eventually be recognized by the utility in, dustry as being quite antithetical to their interest in quicker decisions. The head of the Committee on Power Plant Siting of the National Academy of Engineering testi?ed before the House Committee on May 12th. The Com- mittee program, he said, was to help resolve the con- flict between those who wish to increase the produc- tion of power and those who wish to preserve the environment. Passing the opportunity to use that sentence as an excuse to quote again the aphorism attributed to Paul Appleby to the effect that it is the mark of the public man to see the essential am- biguity in every public question, I can accept Dr. Deming Lewis?s next sentences with more grace: in ?We fully recognize that the resolution of this con?ict must involve many processes including those of law, education, public discussion, and legislation. But the process of resolution must be based upon what is technologically economi- cally feasible, in other words, upon matters in- trinsic to engineering.? (Emphasis mine.) Here, again, I will quote myself: ?It is possible that the ecological crusade has caused us to take our eyes off the main target. Con- cern with only one aspect of the problem?the lo? cation of generating and transmission capacity?- diverts attention from such issues as transmission technology, industry structure, intercorporate re- lationships, and public-private cooperation which lie at the root of service reliability.? In Dr. Lewis?s frame of reference, looking to the Federal government as a broker to resolve the dif?- culties associated with obtaining an adequate power supply, as well as protecting our environment, has a cost, too. I have believed, and said, that a collegial body like the Federal Power Commission can handle the con- (Continued on page 198) ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN ibi?mou AND THE WORLD Fuel Choices in the 213t Century By Professor Carroll L. Wilson Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Although by the year 2000 we cape-ct global thermal power output to be six times the present level. we do not expect it to affect global climate. it is Iniger that the pruncrpal Impact in terms of climate change Will arise. If It does, from the combustion of hydrocarbons to which our only present alternative would be nuclear power. IT is a privilege and pleasure to have the op- portunity to speak again to the representatives of this great industry. My last appearance before you was in 1948. My topic then was the prospects for nuclear power. I was at that time General Manager of the Atomic Energy Commission. It was a time when there were many estimates of the advent and cost of nuclear power. In 1948 the General Advisory Committee to the Atomic Energy Commission felt pressed to make their forecast of the prospects as they then saw them. They said at that time that they expected that at the end of 20 years perhaps as much as half of the new electric generating capacity being ordered would be nuclear. You can judge how accurate this forecast was, If we imagine the end of their 20 years to be in 1967, perhaps their estimate was fairly close. The position, however, may be less optimistic in 1971. I shall be dealing with futures again, but of a different kind. It may sound presumptuous to choose a title such as ?Fuel Choices in the 21st Century,? but let me remind you how near the year 2000 is. My granddaughter, born last month, will be only 29 in the year 2000. She can expect to live to the year 2050 if current actuarial expectations hold good. But will they? A planning horizon of 30 to 50 years has be- Come essential for reasons I will try to explain. My focus will be on global critical environmental problems. I emphasize global because however acute an environmental problem may be locally or region- ally, my focus will be on environmental impacts Which are global and change the climate or the Oceans or terrestrial ecosystems. I shall also not be Concerned with the direct effects on man?s health. An address before the 39th Annual Convention of Edison Electric Institute, Cleveland, Ohio, June 9. 1971- 1971 My reason for a focus on global questions is that many others have been much concerned and devoting great attention to local and regional problems but relatively little attenton has been put on global changes as a result of man?s activities. Again turning to the time horizon, let us suppose that the combustion of hydrocarbons had a high probability of producing major climate changes in the next 30 to 50 years, let?s say, if we projected hydrocarbon usage at a 4 percent compounded growth rate. Such changes might, for example, be the result of carbon dioxide heating up the globe through the greenhouse e?ect or a cooling-off as a result of an increasing particle load in the atmos- phere. Also, the e?ects might be more severe in the northern hemisphere than elsewhere because now and in this short horizon of 30 to 50 years it is likely that at least three-quarters of the hydrocarbon com- bustion will be in the northern hemisphere. Another factor is that a change of only 2 degrees centigrade, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, if sustained, either plus or minus, can start a warming or cooling trend which over time could have substantial e?ects. We?ve heard about the icecaps melting and raising the oceans three or four hundred feet or a new ice age beginning. Such effects, even if started, will take a long time, but nonetheless we know too little about the synergistic e?ects of cooling once started ac- celerating the phenomenon or warming likewise. It is likely that the principal impact in terms of climate change will arise if it does from the com? bustion of hydrocarbons. If a consensus arose that we had to limit or curtail the use of hydrocarbons because of their impact on climate, the implications would be enormous. Our only present alternative would be nuclear power and an electric energy 179 ANNUAL MEAN VALUES OF C02 Swedishflights Mauna Lot: (:25 Anlud?it 5?3 Baum-av, Alaser Figure 1 society. Obviously, the implications for the electric power industry are enormous. Furthermore, this is not merely a U.S. problem, it is a global problem. Even though the US. in the year 1980 or the year 2000 might still account for 25 per- cent of the world?s energy consumption, it wouldn?t be enough that we switched to nuclear power to avoid producing Climate change, Other users would have to do likewise. Thus, for these reasons, too, this is a global problem. Somewhat over two years ago it seemed to some of us that it was timely to conduct a study of critical global environmental problems. This decision arose partly in anticipation of the United Nations Confer- ence on the Human Environment scheduled for June 1972. We enlisted the support and participation of 12 government agencies, three national laboratories, six major industrial ?rms, and four foundations and as- sembled about 40 people for 30 days at Williamstown last summer under the auspices of MIT. We had atmospheric chemists, meteorologists, oceanog- raphers, ecologists, economists, lawyers, engineers. About 40 people spent a full 30 days at this task and 40 others were there part-time. We considered these global environmental prob- lems: Climatic e?ects of increasing carbon dioxide con- tent of the atmosphere and of the increasing particle load in the atmosphere. Climatic effects of contamination of the tropo- sphere and stratosphere by subsonic and super- sonic aircraft. Ecological effects of DDT and other persistent toxic pesticides and of mercury and other toxic heavy metals. Ecological effects of petroleum oil in the oceans and of nutrients in estuaries, lakes, and rivers. For these topics the following general questions were addressed: What can we now authoritatively say on the sub- ject? 180 POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC CAREON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS Annual Emm- 1olu1 0 Add-0d inn-in Add-d Ow kulIon by Annual In hull '1"in Volun- Amw For Imam Mod.- mm fppm'l (ml In Mammy," 1WD 15300 MI 150 I 10? 5? 1000 21.000 135.000 334 . 10* 52 1990 31.330 1am 353 1.75 It 51 100} 45.500 373.006 379 2.95 It 5? Figure 2 What are the gaps in knowledge which limit our con?dence in the assessments we can now make? What must be done to improve the data and our. understanding of their signi?cance so that better aSSessments may be made in the future? What programs of focused research, monitoring, and/or action are needed? What are the characteristics of the national and/or international action needed to implement the recommendations of the study? I shall review the ?ndings and recommendations which are most relevant to the electric power in- dustry. I shall indeed omit quite a few ?ndings and recommendations that are relevant to you as global inhabitants but it will take all my time to discuss those of particular relevance to this industry. In dis? cussing these ?ndings I shall be quoting from the summary of the Study of Critical Environmental Problems (SCEP) Report which represented the product of much labor to condense our conclusions into a brief statement. Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere as to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, we had the following to say: ?All combustion of fossil fuels produces 002. It has been steadily increasing in the atmosphere at 0.2 percent per year. Half of the amount man puts into the atmosphere stays and produces this rise in concentration. The other half goes into the biosphere and the oceans, but we don?t know the partition in uptake, as between these two reservoirs. ?The amount of 002 from fossil fuels is a small part of the natural 002 which is constantly being exchanged between the atmosphere/oceans and the atmosphere/forests. We have very little knowledge of such amounts. ?The projected 18 percent increase resulting from fossil fuel combustion to the year 2000 might in- crease the surface temperature of the earth 0.5 a doubling of the 002 might increase mean annual sur- face temperatures 2 C. Surface temperature changes EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN OF TOTII. ENERGY REQUIREMENTS I'Oll U. 5. ONLY . In? Gun-1h Ital. Duh of Int- your 1m 0.. 2000 mm It lull nu It'll! [gnu-um] 9000 Us, July 1000 1.3 July 106- 3.2 15.8 a: ?at 1.1 14.1! 3.1 Mar im .15 16.? 1 I 4.51 1m,? 1m 1? its 13 5111 Q31 Figure 3 of 2 could lead to long-term warming of the planet. These estimates are based on a relatively primitive computer model with no consideration of important motions in the atmosphere, and hence are very un- certain but they are the best we have. ?If we had to stop producing 002, no coal, oil, or gas could be burned, and all modern societies would come to a halt. The only possible alternative is nuclear energy, whose by-products may cause serious environmental effects. Also, we don?t have electric motor vehicles to be propelled by electricity from nuclear energy. believes that the likelihood of direct cli- mate change in this century resulting from 002 is small, but its long-term potential consequences are so large that much more must be learned about future trends of climate change if society is to have time to adjust to changes which may be necessary.? Figure 1 (refers to Fig. 1.1, page 47 of SCEP Report) shows annual mean values of 002 as measured in four parts of the world. The top curve is based on Swedish ?ights. The next lower curve is based on measurements in the Antarctic. The top three dots re?ect measurements at Point Barrow, Alaska. It seems clear that the 002 content of the atmosphere is practically uniform around the world and that the level has been steadily rising during the decade since IGY when we ?rst beg-an to make measurements. Figure 2 (refers to Table 1.2, page 54 of SCEP Report) shows an estimate of possible carbon dioxide concentrations to the year 2000. The ?rst column is the years?1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. The second column is the amount added through combustion of fossil fuel in millions of tons per year. The third column is the cumulative additions. The fourth col- umn is the parts per million-arising from 321 to 379. The ?fth column is the total amount of CO2 in the atmosphere?rising from 2.50 million million tons to 2.95 million million tons. The last column to the right is the percentage of the annual addition Which stays in the atmosphere?is not transferred to the oceans or forests. We are very uncertain about 1971 this number and whether half of the annual addition of CO2 will continue to be removed by absorption in the biosphere. If 100 percent remained in the atmos- phere our forecast of a global temperature rise of 0.5 by 2000 could become 1.0 and amount to half of the 2.0 change which may trigger a long-term warming trend. Figure 3 (refers to Table 7.2, page 291 of SCEP Report) shows all of the forecasts by others which we were able to assemble last summer. There are seven shown here for the year 1980 and four for 2000. They are for the United States only. I shall not spell out what each set of initials stands for but refer you to the footnotes on page 291 of the SCEP Report. We could ?nd only one projection for the world to 1980 broken down by types of fuel. It seems to me that the electric power industry could make a valuable contribution in this area by sponsoring studies which reach beyond the forecasts you now make both in time?at least to 2000?and in scope to include all forms of energy. Recommendations on CO2 Our recommendations as to what to do about 002 were as follows: Improvement of our estimates of future com- bustion of fossil fuels and the resulting emis? sions. Study of changes in the mass of living matter and decaying products. Continuous measurement and study of the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere in a few areas remote from known sources? speci?cally four stations and some aircraft ?ights. We particularly recommend that the existing record at Mauna Loa Observatory be continued inde?nitely. Systematic study of the partition of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere and the oceans and biomass. Development of comprehensive global com- puter models which include atmospheric mo- tions and ocean-atmosphere interaction to study: circulation, clouds, precipitation and temperature patterns for expected CO2 levels; and effects of stratospheric cooling.? I should note here that the data available and the projections, let?s say to the year 2000, are indeed meager and incomplete. Also, the state of existing computer models is primitive and hence our con- clusions are no better really than the models now accessible. In what I have said above about carbon dioxide and will say later about other products of combus- tion, one may ask why we know so little and why our models are so primitive. The real reason is that no one has cared. Meteorologists on the whole were concerned with short-term weather forecasts. Cli- mate and its changes interested only a few, such as 181 .paleontologists or those who study ice cores from glaciers. We know there have been swings in climate over the last thousand years and that it must be a pretty stable system; nonetheless we understand very little about the delicate feed-back effect of changes, indeed changes that can be of great signi?- cance for the inhabitants of this globe. We believed that four stations are needed to monitor trends, but that 12 stations would be needed to provide data to improve our understanding. Fine Particles in the Atmosphere As to ?ne particles in the atmosphere, we had the following to say: ?Fine particles change the heat balance of the earth because they both reflect and absorb radiation from the sun and the earth. Large amounts of such particles enter the troposphere (the zone up to 40,000 feet) from natural sources such as sea spray, wind-blown dust, volcanoes, and from the conversion of naturally occurring gases?$02 and hydro- carbons?into particles. ?Man puts large quantities of sulfates, nitrates and hydrocarbons into the atmosphere Which become ?ne particles and include special species, such as urban smog. ?Particle levels have been increasing as observed at stations in Europe, North America, and the North Atlantic, but not over the Central Paci?c. ?We do not know enough about the optical prop? erties (re?ection versus absorption) of particles to know whether they produce warming or cooling of the earth surface.? One of the surprising discoveries was that we didn?t really know Whether the effect of particles was to cool or to warm the surface of the globe. It had been Widely assumed that particles had a net cooling effect and, indeed, if one kept in nice balance the net warming effect from 002 and the net cooling e?ect fro-m particles, there was nothing to worry about. We discovered that the ignorance of the optical properties of ?ne particles was so great that they could either have a warming or cooling effect depending upon these characteristics. This had a bearing on our recommendation-s which were as folloWs: Studies to determine optical properties of ?ne particles, their sources, transport, and amounts in both troposphere and strato- sphere, and their effects on cloud re?ectivity. Extending and improving solar radiation measurements. Study of feasibility of satellite measurements of particle concentration and distribution. Monitoring from ground and aircraft?ten ?xed long-term stations and 100 stations for short-lived particles. Develop atmospheric computer models which include particles.? 182 Maine". MW mam-nude? in I I THERMAL powm GENERATION A CLIMATICALLY SIGNIFICANT AREA IN THE u.s. c. II AREA: East, North Central Sim?, and Middle Atlantic SlamFigure 4 We considered two other questions of signi?cance to this industry. The ?rst was thermal pollution and we had this to say: ?Although by the year 2000 we expect global thermal power output to be six times the present level, we do not expect it to a?ect global climate. Over cities it does already create ?heat islands? and as these grow larger, they may have regional cli- matic e?ects and they should be studied.? Figure 4 (refers to Fig. 1.4, page 66, SCEP Re- port) shows an estimate of thermal power genera- tion in climatically signi?cant areas in the United States?the East North Central states?Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio; and the Middle Atlantic states of New York, New Jersey, and The assumptions are that electric power waste heat 2 30 percent of all power; that electrical capacity increases tenfold 1970-2000; and that all other energy doubles 197 0-2000. You will see that by 2000 the total thermal power produced in this region may reach 4 percent of the absorbed solar energy. We really don?t know the effects this may have on climate in this region?or indeed in far larger areas 'of the northern hemisphere. We also considered atmospheric oxygen and Whether it might be depleted by the continued com- bustion of fossil fuels. We considered this a non- problem and said the following: ?Atmospheric oxygen is practically constant. It varies neither over time (since 1910) nor regionally and is always very close to 20.946 percent. Calcula- tions Show that depletion of oxygen by burning all the recoverable fossil fuels in the world would reduce it only to 20.800 percent. It should probably be measured every ten years to make sure that it is remaining constant.? These were our observations on the products of fossil fuel combustion. We had neither time nor data for a comparable examination of the environ- mental effects of nuclear power, including fuel proc? essing. There is one other ?nding and recommenda- tion which is relevant because it relates to oil in the oceans. Because of the importance of oil as energy EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN input. for the electric power industry, it is appro- 1-iate to report our ?ndings on this topic, which were as follows: ?It is likely that up to 1.5 million tons of oil are introduced into the oceans every year through ocean Shipping, offshore drilling, and accidents. In addi- tinn, as much as two to three times this amount could eventually be introduced into waterways and eventually the oceans as a result of emission and wasteful practices on land. ?Very little is known about the effects of oil in the oceans on marine life. Present results are con?icting. The effects of one oil spill which have been carefully observed indicate severe damage to marine organ- isms. Observations of other spills have not shown such a marked degree of damage. Different kinds of damage have been observed for different spills. ?Potential effects include direct kill of organisms through coating, or contact poisoning; direct kill through exposure to the water-soluble toxic components of oil; destruction of the food sources of organisms; and incorporation of sub? lethal amounts of oil and oil products into organ- isms, resulting in reduced resistance to infection and other stresses or in reproductive successes.? Recommendations on Oil We then had the following recommendations to make on this point: Much more extensive research is required to determine the effect of oil in the ocean. Future oil spills should be systematically studied be- ginning immediately after they occur so that a comprehensive analysis of the e?ects can be developed over time. Sites of previous spills should be re-examined to study the effects in sediments. Political and legal possibilities should be ex- plored which would accomplish the conversion to Load-On-Top techniques by that 20 percent of the world?s tankers which do not use this method. The possibility of recycling used oil should be explored.? Time will not permit me to report on What we found and could say and didn?t know about the effects of subsonic and supersonic jet aircraft. It was predictable that what we would say on the SST would be of greatest interest to the press and indeed it was. Using the FAA data and estimates of 500 operating seven hours a day in 1985, we tried to predict how much water vapor and particles they Would dump into the stratosphere at 65,000 feet, how long it would stay there, what the cumulative build-up would be, and whether one could estimate the effects on climate change. We identi?ed a num- ber of areas of profound ignorance and expressed uneasiness at the prospect. It now seems likely that 1971 other factors may affect whether we have any such ?eet of ?ying in 1985. Having identi?ed what we could say and what our areas of ignorance were, we devoted considerable attention to measurement and monitoring of things needed so our estimates in a few years would be much better than we can make now. We drew a clear distinction between measurements which, let?s say, were one-time surveys to ?nd out the state of a?airs and monitoring, which is a long?time, continuous ob- servation of conditions. There is need now for a good deal of survey measurement and only on a few things can we say much about monitoring today. What we did say in the introduction on this subject, written by the SCEP Work Group chaired by G. D. Robinson of the Center for Environment and Man, is worth saying here: ?When the miner?s canary died, it was time to get out of the mine. The canary ?monitored? the mine air and gave an indication of potential disaster due to odorless, invisible methane. The immediate action necessary was clear; long-term solutions could be considered later. ?But when we are concerned with a global en- vironmental problem, this type of monitoring is insu??icient. Because we cannot escape from the earth, we must have more than a sentinel to sound an alarm if a critical threshold is passed; we must know What it is that kills our ?canary,? Where it comes from, and how to turn it off at the source. ?Accordingly, we think ?monitoring? is best con- ceived of as systematic observations of parameters related to a speci?c problem, designed to provide information on the characteristics of the problem and their changes with time. The parameters and problems with which we have been concerned are those of the global environment. And though any monitoring program will provide information useful to dealing with local and regional problems, our con- cern has been with identifying existing and potential monitoring systems capable of securing the informa- tion necessary to deal with the critical global prob- lems identi?ed by the Study of Critical Environ? mental Problems (SCEP). ?For every one of the global problems that have been identi?ed, we ?nd we have insu??icient knowl- edge of either the workings or the present state of the environmental system (see reports of Work Groups 1 and 2). This hinders us as we attempt to design monitoring that will not only warn us of change but also provide information upon which we can base rational and efficient remedial action. In most instances we can suggest a likely analogue of the canary, but we do not know what action would be best once our bird shows up sick. Further, we are persuaded by our colleagues that global systems both physical and biological are so complex that the ulti- mate consequences of any disturbance cannot at present be predicted with con?dence. ?For these reasons our report is concerned not l83 ?a JJQIQRonly with monitoring in its sense of providing warn- ing of critical changes but also with measurements of the present state of the system (the ?base line?) and with measurements in support of research into the workings of the system. We mention the need for this research where it is apparent to us; we have not attempted to provide a complete assessment of research needs. In general, however, we have agreed that research is most needed in providing a closer speci?cation of the present state of the planet and in developing a more complete understanding of the mechanisms of interaction between atmosphere, ocean, and ecosystem.? Now, nearly a year later, it is fair to ask what was the consequence of this study. First of all, we wrote a book during the four weeks of July and pre- sented the ?ndings and recommendations to the press and to the heads of agencies on the 30th and 31st of July. The manuscript was delivered to the MIT Press at the end of August and on the 15th of October the ?rst printing of 10,000 copies began to come off the press. To date 16,000 copies have been sold, a couple of thousand have been given away, and there has been a Russian translation prepared by the Soviet Academy of Sciences. It has been widely used by government agencies, the President?s Council on Environmental Quality and other organizations, and by parts of the United Nations system. I should emphasize that in our ?ndings and recom- mendations we focused on what should be done and what capability it took to do it and strictly abstained from saying who, that is, what organization should do what. Thus, others better ?tted to make these de- cisions could make them and during the past six or eight months many agencies have taken steps to implement the recommendations. L\n The Next Step We then considered what the next step should be. As stated earlier, the global signi?cance of potential climate change from the combustion of fossil fuel is so signi?cant that an international consensus is clearly needed. We therefore have organized a sum? mer study to be held in Stockholm this June 28th for three weeks which will bring together the best at- mospheric chemists, meteorologists, and climatolo- gists in the world. They will address the same questions in terms of the effects on climate change. A report will be written which should carry global authority on these issues. In the months since last summer there has been debate about some of the ?ndings and some of the data used in the SCEP study and we are trying to bring together in Stock- holm this month critiques by those who were not there but who will take part in the study this sum- mer of those parts of the SCEP Report dealing with climate and monitoring. Findings and recommend-a- tions of this study will be presented to the press and leading authorities on the 15th and 16th of July and again we expect a book out by the middle of 184 September. The study this summer will again be under the auspices of MIT. hosted in Sweden by the Swedish Royal Academy of Science?the Swedish Royal Academy of Engineering Sciences. We have had acceptances from 35 of the leading scientists in these ?elds from 15 countries. In addition, we expth a strong Soviet delegation in the study. I am aware that the impact of environmental is. sues on the electric power industry in the last few years at the local and regional levels has been sharp and growing. This has certainly been re?ected in increasing public pressure relating to power sites, 802, Ox and particles, thermal pollution, and transmission lines. I am sure those here can identify other topics including those which cluster around nuclear station proposals. It does seem to me an era both of problems and special opportunities for this great industry. New options will open up as fuel costs and environmental constraints change your choices. Gas turbines, d-c transmission lines, off-shore power stations on the surface or submerged must enter your planning. Era of Opportunity This era of opportunity for the electric power in- dustry will permit you to attract into this ?eld some of the best engineering graduates and management graduates who until very recently would have had their attention focused on other industries. When- ever there are problems and troubles it spells op- portunity and I expect each member of this industry is well aware that you have troubles and problems of a new and different kind. This should also spell a special opportunity for Edison Electric Institute on behalf of this industry to support research on a wholly new scale and to give consideration to some of these long-range topics I have discussed. My clos- ing remarks are again taken from the SCEP Report and are as follows: ?Man doe-s not yet threaten to annihilate natural life on this planet. Nevertheless, his present actions have a considerable impact on ecosystems, and his future actions and numbers will certainly have even more. The critical issue is the danger that we may curtail an environmental service without being able to carry the loss or that we may irreversibly lose a service that we cannot live comfort-ably without. ?An intractable crisis does not now seem to exist. Our growth rate, however, is frightening . . . the risk is very great that we shall overshoot in our environ- mental demands (as some ecologists claim we have already done), leading to cumulative collapse of our civilization. ?It seems obvious that before the end of the century we must accomplish basic changes in our relations with ourselves and with nature. If this is to be done, we must begin now. A change system With a time lag of 10 years can be disastrously in- effectual in a growth system that doubles in less than 15 years.? EDISON ELECTRIC INSTITUTE BULLETIN i?WEn SUPPLY AND ENVIRONMENT IN GREAT BRITAIN By Sir Stanley Brown, C.B.E. chairman, Central Electricity Generating Board Experience in the United Kingdom demonstrates quite em- hatically that with proper care there is consrderabiy less unfavorable impact on the environment by the provision of necessary energy via the electrical route than'by any other. Electricity is in fact the only totally non-polluting fuel other than pure hydrogen. IN introducing this paper, I cannot resist the temp- tation to read the following order to the Sheri? of Surrey: ?To proclaim that all who wish to use kilns in the town of Southwark (in London) shall make their kilns of brushwood or charcoal and shall not use in any way sea coal under pain of heavy for- feiture, as the king learns from the complaint of prelates and maignates of his realm (who fre- quently come to London for the bene?t of the commonwealth by his order) and from the com- plaint of citizens, that the workmen in the town aforesaid now burn them and construct them of sea coal from the use of which an intolerable smell diffuses itself throughout the neighboring places and the air is greatly infected to the annoyance of the magnates, citizens and others there dwell- ing, and to the injury of their bodily health.? That proclamation was made in the year 1307, so you will see that regulations on the environment and on the use of low-sulphur fuels are not exactly new. So there is a history behind this problem of en- vironment and, since the Industrial Revolution began in the United Kingdom in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, we possibly have the dubious honour of being in the forefront of industrial despoliation, but I think history will also show that we realised the error of our ways at an early date and at least made a start in clearing up the mess (Figs. 1 and Legislation can only cover part of the problem, but it is signi?cant that the Act setting up my own Board in the United Kingdom puts a statutory fie- An? address before the 39th Annual Convention of Edison Electric Institute, Cleveland, Ohio. June 9, 1971. I971 sponsibility on the Central Electricity Generating Board?not only to provide an ef?cient supply of electricity to consumers, but also to take into ac- count any effect that our proposals may have on the natural beauty of the or on ?ora, fauna, geological and physiographical features of special interest, and so on. Again, I think history will show that this concern has in fact been practised by the power industry in Britain well before it became a legal duty. Never- theless, we now have a dual responsibility at law and the onus for arriving at a proper balance between economic power and environmental protection lies ?rmly on us. Between the two extremes of ?the cheapest possible electricity? and ?conservation at any price? lie a wide range of possible solutions, and the task of making the correct decisions rests in the ?rst place with my Board, although, of course, our decisions are subject to examination by many inter? ested bodies. The substance of this address is to explain how we have gone about the task of reconcil- ing these two interests which so easily con?ict. Doing our main job, while having a regard for the environment, involves two distinct categories of in- terest. the control of physical pollution?eof air, water, and land and including control of nuisance from noise; secondly, the preservation of that which we in Britain sum up in the word ?amenity,? the pleasantness of our surroundings in all aspects? visual beauty, landscape value, architectural merit, and so on (Figs. 3 and 4). The distinction between the two is that pollution control is mainly objective?a question of facts which are capable of being treated scienti?cally rather than emotionally. Amenity is subjective in character and concerns matters of opinion rather than fact, but in Britain is of high importance be- 185 illCome live in the electric climate: 7 "ls-ll ll? The electric climate can do more an give you more room for living. . . I 1 It?s a superior indoor environment that can make my kind of building cost less to it can help the outdoor environment, too! Consider what the bene?ts of the electric climate can mean to you as a homeowner. And as a cost-conscious, people?conscious executive. And as a civic-minded citizen. The human bene?ts of the electric climate: Flameless electric heat is the heart of the electric climate. It ?lls rooms with a soft, even warmth that can?t be matched for comfort. No drafty corners. No sudden chills. Except for the comfort, you hardly know it?s there-whether you?re in your electrically heated home or of?ce or church or school. Think how much better people live and play and learn and work in such a pleasant environment. The dollar value bene?ts of the electric climate: The initial cost of ?ameless electric equipment that results in the electric climate is com? parable to or lower than other types. Requires little or no maintenance. And the cost of electricity remains a real bargain! The environmental bene?ts of the electric climate: Buildings with the electric cli- mate put nothing into the air around them. . .because electric- ity is the cleanest form of energy there is at its point of use. Gen? eration of electricity by combus- tion methods produces by- products that cause pollution, but these by-products can be best controlled at modern power plants. In fact, the electric industry is a pioneer in the de? velopment and installation of pollution control devices anda_ of course, is actively engaged In even further improving the tech- niques of control. The electric climate promises a better future. Find out more from your electric utility. You, yOl'll' company and your communlty will bene?t. Live better electrically Move toward a better world. Edison Electric Institute, 90 Park Avenue, New York, New York 10016