Perspective on Greenhouse Issues EPRI OURNAL E L E C.T R I C POW E R R ES EA R C H I NS T I T U T E JUNE 1988 EPRI JOURNAL is published eight times each year (January/February, March, April/May, June, JulyIAugust, September, October/November, and December) by the Electric Power Research Institute. EPRI was founded in 1972 by the nation's electric utilities to develop and manage a technology program for improving electric power production, distribution, and utilization. EPRI JOURNAL Staff and Contributors Brent Barker, Editor in Chief David Dietrich, Managing Editor Ralph Whitaker, Feature Editor Taylor Moore, Senior Feature Writer Michael Shepard, Senior Feature Writer Pauline Burnett, Technical Editor Mary Ann Garneau, Production Editor Jean Smith, Program Secretary Kathy Kaufman (Technology Transfer) Richard G. Claeys, Director Corporate Communications Division Graphics Consultant: Frank A. Rodriquez © 1988 by Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Permission to reprint is granted by EPRI, provided credit to the EPRI JOURNAL is given. Information on bulk reprints available on request. Electric Power Research Institute, EPRI, and EPRI JOURNAL are registered service marks or trade­ marks of Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. Address correspondence to: Editor in Chief EPRI JOURNAL Electric Power Research Institute P.O. Box 10412 Palo Alto, California 94303 Please include the code number on your mailing label with correspondence concerning subscriptions. Cover: Scientists and policymakers fear that global warming from atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases may become the most problematic environmental issue civilization has ever faced. (Photo by Ron May) EDITORIAL Coping With Climate Change There is growing consensus in the scientific community that the greenhouse effect is real. Combustion-generated carbon dioxide may indeed cause significant warming of the atmosphere over the next half-century, and other heat-absorbing gases are expected to hasten the process. The environmental consequences of such global warming are not well understood but are hypothesized to include changes in aridity, agricultural practice, forest growth, and sea level rise.A t current rates of worldwide fossil fuel use, there is a possibility that such changes will disrupt the biosphere as we know it and force regions or nations to adapt to new climate patterns. Even more disconcerting is the possibility of destabilization of the earth's entire weather system, resulting in conditions that are not currently forecastable. These issues have raised the public awareness of global warming from the scientific workplace to the realm of international public policy. The increasing weight of evidence of warming, the timing required for modifications in energy use, and the difficulty in resolving sociopolitical implications have also made this issue much more visible to the various energy suppliers of the world. Meeting the worldwide requirements for energy consumption by shifting away from fossil fuel use is a prospect that seems impractical, given the heterogeneity of global economics and society's apprehension about alternatives, such as nuclear power. Thus, adaptability becomes the watchword in coping with the possibility of climate change. But adaptability will depend on the severity and rate of change of possible effects, and neither of these factors is predictable with any degree of certainty. The electric utility industry finds itself in a peculiar position in dealing with the potential of global warming. Utilities are said to be responsible, in some degree, for the problem because they burn fossil fuels; but at the same time, electricity wi!I be crucial to effective adaptation to projected changes. Thus the industry's involvement includes not only the question of emission reduction but also the incorporation of climate change in its long-term planning for electricity needs. EPRI has expanded its research program to develop an improved scientific basis for deciding such courses of action. S ince the U.S. government annually invests more than $100 million in climate research, our program must be highly selective in scope and contribution. We have elected to investigate three important areas: the key aspects of biologic interactions involving ocean and plant photosynthesis; the significance of a greenhouse gas, nitrous oxide, whose sources are emissions from power plants as well as natural causes; and the logistic and economic analysis of planning for electricity needs, should climate warming occur. By carrying out this program and closely monitoring the work of others, EPRI will be in a position to assist its members in creatively coping with climate as an important component of their environmental decision making. 1 A/«. A� George M. H idy Vice President, Enviro ment Division RESEARCH UPDATE 38 Lake Acidification and Fish Mortality Laboratory toxicity data can be combined with a new modeling framework to estimate the probability that particular fish species will thrive in a given body of water. 41 Amorphous Silicon T hin-Film Solar Cells Research on thin-film amorphous silicon is boosting the promise of low-cost multijunction photovoltaic cells for utility-scale power generation. 44 Expert System for Gas 'Turbines A new expert system gives the apprentice technician access to the knowledge and expertise of seasoned specialists in troubleshooting gas turbine problems. 22 Nuclear Power Plant Simulators 30 Hydro Generator Scanner 46 Competitive Factors and Assessment Methods Political, managerial, and technological perspectives form the basis of a new conceptual model for assessing competition in the utility industry. 48 Effects of Electric Fields on Animal Fetuses A study of fetal abnormalities in rats provides the strongest evidence yet that exposure to strong electric fields does not produce birth defects in animals . 50 Advanced S02 Waste Management Comprehensive studies have developed waste management design and cost information for five advanced sulfur reduction technologies. 52 Improving Nuclear Plant Technical Specifications A risk-based analysis methodology and a computer code provide technical justification for modifications in NRC's nuclear plant operation requirements. DEPARTMENTS 36 Tech 'n'ansfer News 56 Calendar 55 New Technical Reports 57 Authors and Articles EPRIJOURNAL Volume 13, Number 4 June 1988 EDITORIAL Coping With Climate Change COVER STORY 4 T he Politics of Climate As consensus builds that man is changing the earth's climate, policymakers are turning their attention to the issue and exploring potential responses. FEATURES 16 Building the Smarter Substation Integrated substation control and protection systems can deal with more data faster and cheaper and offer advanced O&M capabilities as a bonus. 4 Climate Change 16 Smarter Substations 22 Simulators: Tough Training for Top Operators Full-scale control room simulators, virtual duplicates of the real things, have become an essential part of nuclear plant operator training. 30 Early Warning for Hydro Generator Failure Coil failures in hydroelectric generators can be prevented by an internal scanner that keeps a constant lookout for telltale signs of distress. As consensus builds that man is changing the earth's climate, policymakers are turning their attention to the issue and exploring potential responses. 7 T he greenhouse effect, once a subject of purely scientific inquiry, is rapidly emerging as an important public policy issue. The U.S. Congress reportedly devoted more time in 1987 to hearings on climate issues than it did to acid rain. Last December the Global Climate Protection Act of 1987 became law, requiring the president, through the Environmental Protection Agency, to develop and propose to Congress a coordinated national policy in this area. The law also calls for the State Depart- ment to seek international cooperation in limiting climate change and to work within the United Nations to promote the early designation of an international year of global climate protection. Presi­ dent Reagan and General Secretary Gorbachev included in their December 1987 summit communique an initiative to "promote broad international and bilateral cooperation in the increasingly important area of global climate and en­ vironmental change." The World Mete­ orological Organizatio1:- and the United Nations Environment Program recently 1.· , -� ' ·_ . ·_I.1. � ......_____, i I decided to form a joint panel to study the potential impacts of and responses to climate change. And in a related area, 49 nations meeting in Montreal last September approved an interna­ tional protocol to limit production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons, chemicals that in addition to trapping heat in the atmosphere, destroy strato­ spheric ozone. As Steven Shimberg, minority coun­ sel for the Senate Environment Com­ mittee, puts it, "The scientists have caught the attention of the policy­ makers. Many members of Congress see this as the ultimate environmental issue." And as the history of environ­ mental regulation amply demonstrates, policymakers are quite capable of tak­ ing action on issues long before all the relevant scientific uncertainties are resolved. A sampling of comments from a Senate hearing held last December confirms Shimberg's view that at least some members of Congress take the matter seriously. Senator Mitchell: "The impacts of global climate change are of such consequence that we cannot af­ ford to wait for all the questions to be answered with certainty. We are behind in our efforts to begin policy analysis and development to respond to this threat." Senator Baucus: "The uncer­ tainty and potential magnitude of the impacts force us to begin to take re­ sponsible action now." Senator Chafee: "We must act on the information we have now. Each day of delay places us further down the path that threatens our very existence. We may be com­ mitting ourselves to environmental changes that are irreversible. By the time we have more information, it may be too late." Why are these politicians so con­ cerned about a problem that as far as the man on the street is concerned, has yet to appear? The basic reason is that they have been convinced by scientists studying the problem that if we con- 6 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 tinue on our present course we may substantially alter the earth's climate, with major economic, social, political, and environmental consequences. Be­ cause of the lag time in the earth's cli­ mate machine, we may have already set changes in motion whose full effects have yet to be felt. Although many uncertainties remain about the greenhouse effect, scientists are largely in agreement on the broad outlines. The concentration of heat­ trapping greenhouse gases in the atmo­ sphere is steadily increasing as a result of man's activities. The most important gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), respon­ sible for about half of the effect, and methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N20), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and tropo­ spheric (lower atmosphere) ozone (03), which are expected to have a combined effect equal to that of CO2• C enced in the Mesozoic era-the age of dinosaurs. The mercury wouldn't nec­ essarily stop there, either. Gas concen­ trations above a CO2 doubling could yield even greater warming. Some researchers believe that green­ house gas emissions to date have al­ ready committed the earth to a warm­ ing of 0.5 to 1.5°C. Recent analyses of temperature records over the past cen­ tury reveal an overall warming of about 0.5°C, with the three hottest years oc­ curring in the 1980s and five of the nine warmest since 1978. As EPRI Environ­ ment Division Vice President George Hidy puts it, "These observations do not prove a cause-and-effect link; tem­ peratures cycle naturally and are still in the range of normal variability. More­ over, the earth did cool from the 1940s to the 1970s, despite increasing green­ house gas concentrations. So while I'm not yet convinced that a greenhouse warming has begun, the warming trend over the past decade is certainly consis­ tent with the view that it has." omputer models predict that a buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere equivalent in heat-trapping capability to What to do a doubling of the preindustrial level of There are three basic positions in the CO2 will commit the earth to a rise in average temperature of 1.5 to 4.5°C (2.7 emerging greenhouse policy debate: more research is needed before we can to 8.l°F). Because of lags in the earth, respond effectively; climate change is air, and ocean cycles, global tempera­ inevitable, and we should prepare to tures may take some time to reach a new, higher equilibrium level. But once adapt; we should start immediately to mitigate the changes. the gases are emitted to the atmos­ Frederick Koomanoff, who directs the phere, the effects may be inevitable, Department of Energy's CO2 research according to current models. And the program, has long held that we need to effective doubling of atmospheric CO2 better understand the problem before is expected within 50 to 100 years. we adopt policies to mitigate or adapt Many scientists would agree that to the changes. "There's going to be because of uncertainties about key feed­ global warming," he says. "There's no back mechanisms, which could exacer­ question about that. That's physics. bate or dampen the warming, the actual But what are the regions in jeopardy? changes may fall above or below the What's going to happen where? That's range of predictions now being made. the key, and that we don't know. When Nobody knows for sure. But even the we run the models to see how well low end of the prevailing estimatesthey reproduce past climate conditions a l.5°C warming-would create the on a regional basis-say the size of the warmest conditions experienced in American grain belt-they differ so recorded history. A 4.5°C rise would create a temperature regime last experi- completely that we can't really use Emissions and Effects CO2 Around the World Worldwide emissions of CO2 more than tripled between 1950 and 1980, and the pattern of global contribution has been changing in parallel with the growth of industrialization. North America and Western Europe, together accounting for 68% of the CO2 in 1950, represented only about 43% of the expanded total 30 years later. In contrast, the portion attributable to the People's Republic of China and developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and southern Asia grew from 7% to over 20% of the world total. I USSR and centrally planned Europe • Japan and Australia Developing counties • Centrally planned Asia Other (3.9%) (1.4%) . .. ,, .............. (5.7%) � (2.8%) .. ' ' (23.4%) � • Source: Rotty and Masters, 1985. Total emissions: 5.1 billion t/yr carbon Total emissions: 3.1 billion t/yr carbon Total emissions: 1.6 billion t/yr carbon Western Europe 1980 1965 1950 • North America {5.2%). (5.?%)· �- (20.6%) (8.0%) .. ,.� ' (4.4%) �IJII.I (6.0%)fl (8.5%) {12.2%) Transportation (27%) � (5.8%) Domestic CO 2 Production About a quarter of the world's CO2 emissions are produced by the combustion of fossil fuels in the United States. T his U.S. contribution comes in approximately equal proportions from industrial processes, electric power production, and transportation, with homes and businesses playing a somewhat smaller role. U.S. electricity generation accounts for Electric power (28%) about 7.5% of total worldwide CO2 emissions. Decades of Change Researchers 0.30 believe that greenhouse gases will cause CFC-11 and CFC-12 slow but significant warming of the atmos­ phere over the coming decades. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been the predominant concern in the past, but the effects of such gases as methane (NH,), nitrous oxide (N20), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are expected to increase substantially in the future. T he projections (right), based on a single model, show the predicted tempera­ ture rise for each decade resulting directly 0 0.20 � Ql rn cu Ql Ql from the four groups of gases thought to be :i co a,Q_ model predicts a cumulative increase of only � most important to global warming. The about 1 °C over the next half century; how­ E 0.10 ever, these results do not include environ­ mental feedback effects, which can speed up or slow down the warming trend, or the accumulation of several other gases for which there are few data. Other models estimate a total temperature increase as high as 3 ° C for the same period. 0.00 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s to Stephen Leatherman, director of the them. There's always going to be un­ Laboratory for Coastal Research at the certainty. But at least we have to know University of Maryland, the earth's the direction of the changes in a given oceans have risen about six inches dur­ area, plus or minus, before we act." Koomanoff agrees, however, that cer­ ing the past century. As a consequence, 90% of U.S. beaches are eroding at a tain kinds of policy-related work do make sense right now. "We should start national average rate of slightly more than one foot per year, and many areas compiling data bases on the resources along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are that are out there-agricultural sys­ eroding three to five feet a year. Not tems, forests, fisheries, and their links only should roads and buildings be to the economy, and we need to de­ sited well back from eroding shorelines, velop methodologies to manipulate claims Leatherman, but communities these data so that we can identify should recognize that even moderate which regions are in jeopardy." rises in average sea level can allow de­ The Environmental Protection structive waves to reach much higher Agency, at the request of Congress, is ground during severe storms. doing some of this already. Focusing Rising seas and other results of a on four case study areas-Southeast, global warming couW have implications Great Lakes, California, and Great for utilities as well in areas ranging Plains-EPA is carrying out a major from plant siting to load profiles and assessment of the potential effects of the availability of hydro resources. EPRI climate change on forests, lakes, wet­ recently cofunded a study on possible lands, agriculture, human health, and impacts of climate change on utility other aspects of the environment. The operations. Although such changes, project also will identify policy options if unanticipated, could be very costly for adaptation to such changes and will to individual utilities, the study found flag key areas of scientific uncertainty. EPA expects final reports on these proj­ that the costs could be significantly reduced with appropriate planning. ects to be available by this autumn. Not everyone agrees that we have In many cases the uncertainty about enough information to start adapting to regional climate changes will prevent climate change. Barry Malac, technical researchers from drawing firm conclu­ director of the Woodlands Division sions about the effects on a given re­ of the Union Camp Corp. , is dubious source. For instance, without knowing about the dire predictions some re­ whether rainfall and soil moisture will searchers are making about the impact increase or decrease in a given area during the growing season it is difficult of climate change on the forest prod­ ucts industry. "These changes are likely to predict the impact on crop yields. to be extremely gradual, often imper­ W hat many of these studies will do then is to consider a number of climate ceptible, proceeding over decades or perhaps even centuries." Even for an change scenarios to define potential industry that routinely plans 20 to 30 ranges of effects. years ahead, as Malac explains, climatic These kinds of "what if" studies are useful for understanding what might be fluctuations measured in decades or at stake if climate does change and how centuries "are for all practical purposes adaptive responses might work. Coastal irrelevant to any reasonable resource and management planning." development planning, for instance, Comments like these reveal a wide should consider the possibility that a range of opinion on the implications of greenhouse-induced warming may raise the sea level a few inches to a few climate change and the urgency of the need to adapt. Where the debate really feet in the coming decades. According 8 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 A Multitude of Sources Greenhouse gases are produced by a broad range of natural and man-made processes. The burning of fossil fuels for transportation, elec­ tricity generation, and manufacturing adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, as does deforestation. Methane is produced in signifi­ cant amounts by rice paddies and wetlands and by the digestive tracts of farm animals and ter­ mites. Natural land emissions, fossil fuel com­ bustion, and the use of fertilizer all add nitrous oxide to the air. Chlorofluorocarbons, histori­ cally used as propellants for aerosol cans and in the manufacture of insulating and packaging foams, are now being phased out of many U.S. commercial applications. heats up, however, is in the discussion of what, if anything, should be done to ameliorate such change. Winners and losers fl Termites fl Industrial pollution fl Rice paddies Cattle v fl Deforestation Aerosols V Because the sources of greenhouse gases are so diverse, any effective ame­ lioration of global warming will require action by many nations. The task of reaching international agreement on mitigation strategies could be ham­ pered, however, by the perception on the part of some countries that they might be better off in a warmer world. Climate models predict, for instance, that rainfall over the midcontinents might shift northward, improving growing conditions in Siberia and Can­ ada but recreating the Dust Bowl in the American plains. Global rainfall would probably increase, harming nations in the path of more severe tropical storms but possibly helping arid regions like sub-Saharan Africa. Some changes, like more vigorous growth of plants ex­ posed to higher CO2 levels, might help many places, while other effects, like sea level rise, would be almost univer­ sally harmful. Most nations-especially large, geo­ graphically diverse ones like the U.S., U.S.S.R., and China-would probably receive some mix of benefits and costs. For instance, a welcome warming in Siberia might be accompanied by less desirable changes in the western Soviet Union. Although some nations may think they stand to gain, none can know for sure. They know some change is likely, but they don't know how fast it will arrive, how severe it will be, or how it will manifest itself locally. Moreover, many of the most profound effects may yet be unanticipated. Climate change may proceed gradually and almost im­ perceptibly or it "may come in sharp steps," as Columbia University geo­ chemist Wallace Broecker told a Senate committee last year. "If so, then we must begin to think in terms of climate EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 9 So far, the cooperative spirit appears surprises that may, without warning, to be prevailing as national, bilateral, cause shifts in temperature and rainfall and international dialogue on the patterns." Any government that gambled on be­ greenhouse issue accelerates. Later this year EPA is expected to complete a ing a net winner in the climate change sweepstakes thus would be playing study of climate-related policy options, with very limited information and for their likely ramifications, and their ef­ very high stakes. For climate is inter­ fects. EPA Administrator Lee Thomas led a U.S. delegation to Moscow last woven with the fabric of human soci­ ety; we have built our world around it. February that reached an agreement To change it markedly is to tinker with with their Soviet counterparts to set up a bilateral working group to explore something vast. greenhouse policy issues. In 1987 a sim­ As Mason Willrich, now executive vice president of Pacific Gas and Elec­ ilar bilateral arrangement was reached between EPA and the People's Republic tric Co., wrote in his 1975 book Energy and World Politics, "A substantial change of China. The Organization for Eco­ in the earth's climate would inevitably nomic Cooperation and Development recently stepped up its efforts to study force a worldwide political, economic, the environmental, energy, and socio­ and social upheaval. We can adapt economic implications of climate change comfortably to large seasonal tempera­ ture variations, and we can endure oc­ and the impact of potential control measures for greenhouse gases. And casional painfully hot, cold, wet, and dry spells. All human institutions rest, the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Pro­ however, on the underlying balance of the world's climate." grams are in the process of establishing an intergovernmental panel on climate Sir Crispen Tickell, ambassador to change to study all aspects of the issue, the United Nations from the United Kingdom, echoes Willrich's view. "With from the scientific uncertainties to so­ cial and economic impacts and potential climate change the cards of economic responses. advantage that we all take for granted would be redealt between countries, What is most notable about these with very interesting results. But the activities is that the issue is no longer biggest problem of all is change. In solely in the scientific realm. Major earlier times people could and did react scientific uncertainties clearly remain, to change with their feet-they just but the nations of the world-includ­ moved on to where conditions were ing many developing countries, as wit­ better. But with increasing population, nessed by the strong interest within the extreme population density, and re­ United Nations-are starting to ask, sources that are exploited to the max­ what should we do about this? imum, large movements of people would scarcely be possible. In our over­ How to slow the change stretched human world all change Many of the major policy options have means dislocation." already been articulated, and they cen­ ter on slowing the buildup of heat­ Without a doubt, it will be difficult trapping gases in the atmosphere. to achieve international cooperation to Specifically, the key options appear to mitigate climate change. But it may be easier to achieve in today's state of be reducing emissions of CFCs, reduc­ shared uncertainty about local and re­ ing and reversing tropical deforesta­ gional effects than it would be if na­ tion, and limiting combustion of fossil fuels. tions knew (or thought they knew) Proponents point to the Montreal who the winners and losers would be. 10 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 accords of last September, in which negotiators from 49 nations agreed on restrictions for CFCs as an important ex­ ample of how nations can reach agree­ ments on global environmental issues. The principal impetus was concern that CFCs are depleting the stratospheric ozone layer that shields us from harm­ ful solar ultraviolet radiation. But CFCs also act as greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. So if the Montreal agreement is ratified by at least 11 na­ tions representing two-thirds of global CFC production, it will also help ameli­ orate a greenhouse warming. Among the key provisions are a freeze in CFC production at 1986 levels to take effect in 1989 and a 50% cut in CFC use by 1999. T wo factors made agreement on CFCs easier than might be the case with other greenhouse gases. The negotiators per­ ceived a clear and present danger with regard to ozone depletion (higher risk of skin cancer and cataracts), and CFCs are used for specific commercial pur­ poses (like refrigeration and production of insulating foams) for which substitute compounds exist or are under develop­ ment. In other words, the costs to soci­ ety of reducing CFC use are not very high. New findings that ozone levels are falling worldwide-not just over Ant­ arctica, as had been previously thought -have some scientists and policy ana­ lysts calling for even stricter controls or an outright ban on CFCs. "The compo­ sition of the atmosphere may be chang­ ing far more rapidly than we had ex­ pected," comments Irving Mintzer, a senior associate at the World Resources Institute (WRI) . "Clearly the Montreal protocol is not enough to reduce the risk." Others argue, however, that the link between CFCs and the 5% worldwide ozone decline from 1979 to 1986 is not clear because ozone levels are thought Energy Use and Climate Change Because fossil fuel combustion contributes more than half of all greenhouse gas emissions, the rate of climate change may depend largely on future energy policies. T he results summa­ rized below convey the range of thinking on how energy use will change in the next several decades. Differing views on the potential for energy conservation are responsible for much of the difference in the scenarios. The World Resources Institute (WRI) study suggests that ambitious investments in conservation can keep energy use roughly constant over the next 30 years. The studies by the World Energy Conference (WEC) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (I IASA) predict that even with substantial conservation, world energy use will roughly double by 2020, with much of the increased supply coming from coal and nuclear power. 25 20 Ifill -111!18 , - - - - - - - - - - - --, Other I Hydro I I I Nuclear Biomass 1111111 Coal -:111111111111 PROJECTED I Natural gas ,... Oil Q) 15 >, >, 10 5 -- --- I I ,----_J I O '--------------------- -- 1980 (actual) 2020 (WRI study) to rise and fall in natural cycles, per­ haps associated with changes in solar activity. Ozone levels reportedly rose 4% in the 1960s. Deforestation is another important source of greenhouse gas buildup. When forests are leveled and the trees burned or left to rot, the carbon in the biomass is released as CO2. Conversely, growing plants absorb CO2 from the air and, through photosynthesis, fix the carbon in their tissues. There is a longstanding scientific debate about 2020 (WEC study) -----2020 (IIASA study) whether the world's biomass is now a net absorber of CO2 or whether defor­ estation and organic decay is proceed­ ing at such a rapid pace that plants are now releasing more CO2 than they are absorbing. One recent review article postulates that tropical deforestation adds between 0.4 and 1.6 billion tons of carbon to the atmosphere each year, which is about 10-30% as large as the 5 billion tons emitted by fossil fuel com­ bustion . W hatever the actual figure, a reduction in deforestation and an in- crease in reforestation would undoubt­ edly help to slow the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2. Much of the world's deforestation is occurring in developing nations. Trees are being cut to provide fuelwood and charcoal, to clear land for cattle ranch­ ing, roads, and settlements, and for lumber. Reversing this trend is difficult, as rural development specialists have learned in recent years. But progress is being made in a number of ways. Aid organizations have developed more-efficient stoves for villagers who use wood for cooking and heat. Low­ cost, efficient, liquid-fueled stoves are being developed to help reduce fuel­ wood demand. Reforestation programs have been launched. International lend­ ing institutions like the World Bank have started to link forest preservation requirements to the loans they provide for roads and infrastructure develop­ ment. Despite these efforts, forests in the tropics alone are being cleared at a rate of about 40,000 square miles a year (an area the size of Virginia), and ex­ perts maintain that far more resources will have to be devoted to this problem if it is to be brought under control. CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas with biologic origins. Some of the ni­ trous oxide being emitted to the atmo­ sphere comes from agricultural fertil­ izer, and much of the methane release comes from anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in flooded rice paddies, termite mounds, landfills, and the di­ gestive tracts of livestock. Researchers are just beginning to explore whether changes in fertilizer formulations and agricultural practices would have much impact on these emissions. Rice doesn't have to be grown in flooded ground, for instance; the flooding is principally for weed control. Some agronomists even argue that higher yields can be achieved without flooding. If this proves true, methane emissions could fall as a side effect of changes in cultivation practices aimed at increasing yields. EPRI JOURNAL June 1 988 11 EPRI Resolving N 2 0 U ncertainty E PRI's research budget in the area of climate change is modest, so the Institute tries to target its funding to resolve small pieces of the green­ house puzzle that are not being ad­ dressed by other research organiza­ tions. One example is the Institute's work on nitrous oxide (N20). N20 is a greenhouse gas with a very long (150-year) lifetime in the atmo­ sphere. Atmospheric concentrations of this gas are currently rising by about 0.25% per year. Roughly half of the emissions are thought to come from natural sources. The rest comes from combustion of fossil fuels and biomass and from agricultural fertil­ izer. Little is known, however, about the chemistry of N20 formation during fossil fuel combustion or the amounts being released from power plants. EPRI has three projects under way to resolve this uncertainty. Measurements of N20 are now be­ ing taken as a routine part of the Insti­ tute's NOx monitoring effort. George Offen, manager of the Air Quality Control Program, explains: "Current N20 emissions data are sparse and sometimes contradictory. We want to get a better handle on the emissions, as well as a better understanding of the impact of NOx controls on those emissions." To improve on the ex­ pensive, error-prone lab analysis ap­ proach, EPRI contracted with the Uni­ versity of California at Irvine to develop an instrument for on-line N20 monitoring. Offen believes that this method will provide more-reliable data and allow N20 emissions to be measured under a wider range of con­ ditions. The Irvine team will also use the instrument for bench-scale tests of the impact different NOx control tech­ niques have on N2 0 emissions. D 12 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 There is some hope, then, that biotic sources of greenhouse gases could be controlled somewhat, although the effi­ cacy of such measures remains highly uncertain. The largest single source (more than half) of greenhouse emis­ sions, however, is the extraction and use of fossil fuels in vehicles, buildings, factories, and power plants . Thus, the core of the debate about how to amelio­ rate a greenhouse warming ultimately comes down to issues of energy policy. Energy policy and greenhouse warming Because fossil fuel emissions contribute not only to the greenhouse problem but to acid deposition, urban smog, and stratospheric ozone depletion (N20 is implicated in the breakdown of ozone), proponents argue that greenhouse con­ trol measures that reduce the use of fossil fuels can yield multiple benefits. Greater emphasis on efficiency in en­ ergy supply and use is often men­ tioned. Specific measures that have been proposed include a carbon tax to discourage use of such high-COrreleas­ ing fuels as coal and coal-based syn­ fuels; stricter vehicle mileage standards; a requirement that the climate implica­ tions of projects be considered in en­ vironmental impact statements; and fuel-switching to natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and annually cycled biomass. The question of what can be achieved with energy conservation is the "jugu­ lar" of the issue, as WRI President Gus Speth puts it. His organization recently sponsored an international study, which concluded that an ambitious, cost-effective program of efficiency im­ provements in the energy sector could keep world energy consumption essen­ tially flat over the coming 30 years, while allowing for economic growth and population increase. For every low-energy scenario, how­ ever, there are others that are less opti- mistic about conservation's potential. EPRI President Emeritus Chauncey Starr points out that "on a per capita basis, citizens of developing nations use one­ ninth as much electricity as residents of the industrialized world. As poorer na­ tions strive for higher standards of liv­ ing in the coming decades, they will in­ evitably consume more energy." Citing a World Energy Conference study, Starr maintains that even with ambitious en­ ergy conservation efforts, global energy use will at least double and perhaps tri­ ple by the year 2060. Even if world energy demand were to stay roughly constant, the question arises as to what fuels will be used to supply that demand. Some analysts argue that policies should encourage a switch away from coal toward natural gas because natural gas releases only half as much CO2 per energy unit. And if the gas is burned in high-efficiency combustion turbines, electricity can be generated with only one-third the CO2 output of conventional coal combustion. E ven if there were enough natu­ ral gas available to displace much of the world's coal use, a point that Starr questions, he argues that such a policy would be ill-advised . "Coal will continue to be widely used, especially in the develop­ ing world because it is abundant and inexpensive. It is a pipe dream to think that poor nations will forgo the use of cheap energy resources to avoid some as yet unproven change in climate. Moreover, natural gas is too valuable as a petrochemical feedstock. I think it is almost a scandalous waste of natural resources to burn it to make electricity." EPRI President Dick Balzhiser differs on this point. "With the coal gasifica­ tion technology that is now available, we have the capacity to derive the same chemical building blocks from coal. I think one can argue that if natural gas is available today and it competes well with oil, coal, or any of the other op- Greenhouse Policies Emerge Although scientific understanding of man's impact on climate is incomplete and there is not much precedent for multilateral agreements on environmental issues, domestic laws and international pacts related to climate change are beginning to emerge and the pace of discussion is building. • Global Climate Protection Act of 1 987 Passed by the U .S. Congress last December, this law requires EPA to develop a coordinated national policy on climate change and charges the State Department to seek international cooperation in limiting such change. • Montreal Protocol on the Ozone Layer An international agreement approved by representatives of 49 nations last September to limit the production of chemicals that destroy stratospheric ozone: CFCs (also a potent greenhouse gas)and halons. To take force, the protocol must be ratified by at least 11 nations representing two-thirds of world consump­ tion of CFCs. If ratified, the protocol would freeze CFC production in 1989 at 1986 levels and require a 50% cut by 1999. As of mid May 1988, the United States and Mexico had ratified the protocol. • Bilateral Agreements with the USSR and China In the past few years, EPA has established bilateral agreements with the Soviet and Chinese governments to explore greenhouse policy issues. • UNEP-WMO Policy Initiatives T he United Nations Environmental Program and World Meteorological Organization, in conjunction with a number of nongovernmental institu­ tions, have sponsored several international conferences in the past few years to discuss the development of policies for responding to climate change. UNEP is considering establish­ ment of an intergovernmental committee this year to explore greenhouse policy options under U.N . auspices. tions for energy supply, it should be used." The gasification option also raises another possibility-that CO2 could be stripped from coal-derived syngas and stored or fixed chemically to prevent it from entering the atmosphere. Several studies have looked at the possibilities of disposing of CO2 by pumping it deep into the ocean, injecting it into depleted natural gas reservoirs, or expanding its use in tertiary oil recovery. Although these options are all technologically fea­ sible, some analysts doubt they would be cost-effective in many locations . Gordon MacDonald, vice president of The MITRE Corp., comments: "There are some very simple thermodynamic facts of life. Once you've combined car­ bon with oxygen (to make CO2), to stuff it back into the earth or otherwise dis­ pose of it you essentially have to use nearly the same amount of energy as you gained in the burning process to begin with. So it doesn't look as if it would be economic to remove CO2 even in principle." EPRI Vice President Dwain Spencer takes a different view. He admits that we do not yet know how to technically and economically fix and store large amounts of CO2 , but he believes that with adequate R&D, viable options could be developed . Such measures would inevitably raise electricity costs, though it is not yet clear by how much. Typical estimates for the currently con­ ceived approaches show cost premiums of roughly 30 to 100% . Natural and synthetic gas aren't the only supply options being proposed, however. Renewable energy supplies also hold promise for electricity produc­ tion in some settings and more widely for low-temperature applications like water and space heating. The contri­ bution of renewables to global energy supplies has grown steadily over the past 15 years and is expected to in­ crease in importance in the future. One of the most interesting energy EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 1 3 What's at Stake for Utilities? I f the earth's climate does change markedly in the next century, soci­ eties and institutions will have to adapt. Foresight and planning can help make this adaptation easier. The electric utility industry took a step in this direction recently by conducting a preliminary "what if" study to explore how utility operations might be af­ fected if greenhouse-induced climate changes do occur. Cosponsored by EPRI, the Environ­ mental Protection Agency, Edison Electric Institute, and the New York State Energy Research and Develop­ ment Administration, the study con­ cluded that climate change may entail significant capacity and cost impli­ cations for utilities. Conducted by ICF Inc., the study looked at only two of the possible ways that utilities might be impacted: the effects of projected temperature rises on heating and air conditioning loads, and the implica­ tions of reduced stream flow on hy­ droelectric resources. The work exam­ ined two case studies: a southeastern utility and the member companies of the New York Power Pool. Focusing on the year 2015, a point well within utility planning horizons, the analysis suggests that temperature increases of slightly under 1 °C would increase the need for new generating capacity in both service territories by 10 to 20%, leading to hundreds of mil­ lions of dollars in increased electricity production costs. The study also looked at the im­ plications of alternative planning as­ sumptions made by the utilities with regard to climate change. If the south­ eastern utility planned for and phased in new combined-cycle generating ca­ pacity in anticipation of a warming that never occurred, it would find it- 14 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 self with excess capacity, costing an estimated $11 million in the study year of 2015. If, however, the utility did not plan for the warming and it did occur, the costs of hurriedly adding rela­ tively expensive short-term supplies like oil- and gas-fired turbines and purchased power were shown in this analysis to be even more expensive­ about $55 million for the year 2015. In this scenario, then, the risk of not an­ ticipating the warming is five times as great as the risk of planning for it and having it not occur. Whether or not the numbers in this scenario are accurate, it is a useful ex­ ercise to evaluate in even a qualitative way what might be at stake for the industry, maintains Richard Richels, manager of EPRI's Risk Management Program: "Bear in mind that we looked at only two utilities in a single year and have considered only two of the ways that climate change could affect utility operations. Once we in­ tegrate across many years, many im­ pacts, and many utilities, we may find that the cost to the industry and its customers of guessing wrong about climate change may be very high indeed." Acknowledging that this study was only a "preliminary cut at the prob­ lem," Richels suggests that future im­ pact assessments should consider more of the pathways by which cli­ mate change can affect utilities, such as demographic shifts, changes in pumped irrigation loads, changing storm patterns, and the implications of a rising sea level for coastal plants. He also maintains that the methodol­ ogy can be improved and that the im­ pacts need to be assessed regionally across the country to give a more bal­ anced and comprehensive view. D supply issues in the greenhouse debate centers on nuclear power. Nuclear sup­ porters have long argued that if the greenhouse effect is indeed a serious problem, nuclear power can help solve it by displacing fossil fuel consumption. (Nuclear fission releases no greenhouse gases.) Some nuclear critics are starting to reexamine their positions along these lines. Senator Tim Wirth, a prominent envi­ ronmentalist not generally considered a nuclear proponent, made the following comments at a recent Senate hearing on the greenhouse issue: "This is counter­ political-there's a kind of nuclear mea­ sles in this country where people want to quarantine anything that relates to nuclear-but if [we're] serious in this area it seems we ought to be doing more with nuclear and less with coal." Even the World Resources Institute, firmly grounded in the environmental community, argues halfheartedly that we should preserve the nuclear option. Limited research on simpler, safer reac­ tor designs should continue, comments Speth, "although in the 15 to 20 years that it is likely to require to design, test, and build this new technology, many safer and more economic alternatives are very likely to become available." Who should lead? Whatever energy policies are chosen, the United States cannot solve the greenhouse problem alone. It is a global issue. The United States pro­ duces about one-quarter of global CFC emissions and a similar proportion of man-made CO2 emissions. Of the U.S. contribution to CO2 loading, about one­ quarter comes from electric utilities; the remaining three-quarters comes from automobiles, factories, and other com­ bustion sources. U.S. and Western European fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been fairly sta­ ble since the early 1970s, but emissions from the eastern bloc, China, the Pacific Rim, and developing nations are rising. been treated in the last two decades. A little bit of information is extrapolated into the worst-case scenario in order to whip up a lot of interest. "I think the responsible position for industry leaders is to stay informed and wait until the facts are in . If the consen­ sus within EPRI and other groups work­ !though the United States cannot unilaterally reverse ing on the science is that we really do the trend in greenhouse gas have an urgent and serious problem emissions, Rafe Pomerance and that the industry has to face up to of WRI argues that it can provide much it, I think the industry would. The leadership is there. It's a question of needed leadership in this area. "The Montreal accords [on CFCs] would persuasion." EPRI's Balzhiser comments, "We have never have been reached without con­ sistent American pressure on the world always been urged by our Board and community over a 10-year period. We executives in the industry to give them should be proud of our role in develop­ the scientific fact base they need to ing that agreement, and we should make judgments, and that means an show the same kind of foresight and early warning alert on any issue, what­ ever its implications. We've been lim­ perseverance in convincing the world ited in what we can do on this issue by to control greenhouse gas emissions. resource constraints, but the events of "The U.S., the U.S.S. R., and China the past year and the growing politici­ control more than 80% of the world's coal. Here is an issue in which the fate zation of the issue may require that we of the planet in some sense rests in the increase our attention to our timetable for work in this area." hands of large continental powers and the leadership that they exhibit on this Mason Willrich of Pacific Gas and question." Electric Co. echoes Balzhiser's senti­ ments: "The institutional and policy is­ Pomerance maintains that the gov­ ernment will not act alone, however. sues that are emerging in this area are absolutely imperative for the country to "If the industrial leadership isn't there, this problem won't be solved. It has to address. And the industry needs to come from industry, which has to agree take a leadership role in that process." that this is a serious threat, has to be The challenge of establishing the facts part of the solution, be out there lead­ and informing decision makers extends ing the charge." well beyond the bounds of the utility Not everyone believes the situation is industry. Ambassador Tickell explains so urgent, however. "That's such a typ­ that government leaders throughout the world will not readily make hard ical argument for any environmental issue," says Bill Harrison, formerly political choices to address the green­ senior vice president of Southern Com­ house issue. "They will ask three basic pany Services, and chair of the electric questions: Can you prove it? What will utility industry's Clean Air Act issues happen and when? What should be group. "The advocates always think done about it?" nobody is taking them seriously In addition to calling for stepped-up enough, and everybody ought to rally research on the scientific uncertainties, behind their cause. My skepticism­ the potential effects, and the available and I suspect that many in the industry policy options, Tickell has a further share my view-is based on the way suggestion. "If government leaders that a lot of environmental issues have are to be persuaded to take actionEmissions from developing nations, in particular, are expected to grow sub­ stantially with population growth and industrialization. China, for instance, is drawing heavily on its coal reserves to fuel its development efforts. A and remember that most of them are not scientists-then some catalyst in the form of a commission or panel of people, distinguished in political as well as scientific life, might be created. I see the function of such a body as threefold: to draw up an inventory of the causes of warming and the corre­ sponding remedies; to draw up a code of good international behavior to act as a reference framework around which consensus could be built; and last, to examine the possibility of a network of agreements that might sooner or later have more-binding characteristics. "Each stage represents an ascending order of difficulty. It would also rep­ resent a progression in time so that each could reflect the needs of the problem as it and public awareness of it develop. "We live on a vulnerable planet. The multiplication of our own kind and the way we've changed the land, sea, and air around us require us to follow through the logic of what we've done and to manage the consequences. We should start before it is too late." • Further reading Potential Effects of Climate Change on Electric Utilities. Fi­ nal report for RP2141-11 prepared by ICF Inc. Forthcoming. Chauncey Starr. "Global Climate Change and the Electric Power Industry." Presentation to the National Climate Pro­ gram Office Strategic Planning Seminar, January 5, 1988. (Available from Dr. Starr's office at EPRI.) Congressional discussion on the Global Climate Protection Act of 1 987. Congressional Record, S18195 to S18198, De­ cember 16, 1987. J. Goldemberg, T. Johansson, A. Reddy, and R. Williams. Energy for a Sustainable World. Washington D.C .. World Resources Institute. September 1987. Irving M intzer. A Matter of Degrees: The Potential for Con­ trolling the Greenhouse Effect. Washington, D.C.: World Re­ sources Institute. April 1 987. Jessica Mathews. "Global Climate Change: Toward a Greenhouse Policy." Issues in Science and Technology, Vol. 3, No. 3, Spring 1987, pp. 57-68. This article was written by Michael Shepard with back­ ground information from three EPRI Vice Presidents, George Hidy, Dwain Spencer, and Kurt Yeager. Additional informa­ tion was provided by a number of EPRI staff members: Stephen Baruch, Leonard Levin, Michael Miller, George Offen , Ralph Perhac, Richard Richels, Ian Torrens, and Thomas Wilson. EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 15 ?wan-5.3.3.; .tli Building the Smarter Substation Integrated substation control and protection systems are the perfect complement to modern solid-state relay equipment -the new digital technology can deal with more data faster and cheaper and offers advanced O&M capabilities as a bonus. W hen lightning causes a flashover on a transmis­ sion line or bus, or a fault develops in a high-voltage transformer, the affected equipment is isolated from the rest of a utility system by circuit breakers in a transmission sub­ station. Many of these circuit breakers are still controlled by electromechanical protective relays, but over the last 20 years, solid-state electronic relays have become increasingly popular. Now, thanks to long-term EPRI research, the control and protection functions of a transmission substation can be inte­ grated into a digital, microprocessor­ based system that is less expensive, of­ fers lower operations and maintenance costs, and provides a new level of oper­ ating flexibility. W hat this means for a utility consid­ ering construction of a new substation or connection of a new transmission line to an existing substation is a probable 1020% saving in the cost of relay and con­ trol equipment. In addition, several new functions that were previously too ex­ pensive for routine operations will be available automatically, including esti­ mation of fault location, self-checking of equipment operations, capability for re­ mote adjustment of relay settings, and detailed on-line collection of data from disturbances. Over the long term the availability of such equipment may result in further savings by allowing utilities to operate transmission lines and transformers closer to their performance limits and thus avoid capital costs associated with adding new equipment. Advanced on­ line equipment diagnostic capability is also within reach. "Until recently, digital systems for automation of substation operations would have been too expen­ sive," says Narain Hingorani, vice presi­ dent of the Electrical Systems Division. "As digital electronics became more powerful and less expensive, however, it became feasible to place microprocessors at various pieces of equipment and to link them together in an integrated sys­ tem . We recognized the potential of this technology about nine years ago and be­ gan to push development of automation systems that are now being introduced as commercial products ." Less wiring, more data The economic and technical advantages of microprocessors result from their abil­ ity to handle large amounts of informa­ tion with fewer components. In a substa­ tion, for example, a few microprocessors can handle input from several sources more or less simultaneously. Data can be passed from one processor to another, thus eliminating the need for much re­ dundant equipment and wiring. The trick is to sample currents and voltages digitally from various sensors at a high frequency (16 times per cycle has been chosen for the system) instead of having individual analog signals distributed over separate wires. The main technical challenge addressed by EPRI research on transmission substation automation was how to organize numerous control and protection components into an inte­ grated system. A type of organization, or system architecture, was needed that would balance cost reduction and en­ hanced performance, while providing sufficient redundancy to enable the sys­ tem to perform even if any single com­ ponent failed. The microprocessors used in this project are similar to those in per­ sonal computers . The system architecture chosen in­ volves three levels of microprocessors and associated electronics that are linked hierarchically. At the lowest level are data acquisition units, which serve as an interface between the power system and the control system. Analog input data from individual power equipment are converted into the digital form and passed up the hierarchy for processing. Commands from microprocessors higher up in the control system are, in turn, con­ verted in data acquisition units into a form that causes some action, such as tripping or closing a circuit breaker. The data acquisition units represent the most expensive portion of the inte­ grated protection and control system, ac­ counting for approximately 40-60% of the total system cost. The high cost is be­ cause these units require a large number of discrete circuits, which must be elec­ trically isolated from high voltages and physically protected from damaging electromagnetic fields or heat. Signals from the data acquisition units are re- EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 i7 Integration for Better Control Microprocessors similar to those in personal computers are the key to new integrated control and protection systems for transmission substations. The microprocessors are linked together in a three-tiered architecture, beginning with data acquisition units (DAUs) that monitor equipment status at critical points throughout the substation . Digital signals from the DAUs are transmitted through fiber-optic cables to i ndoor protection clusters, which coordinate the i nformation and decide when to open and close circuit breakers. Coaxial cable connects all the protection clus­ ters, serving as a data highway for linkage to the top level of control-the station computer. The computer coordinates action among the clusters, stores data on power system events, and is a communication connection to a utility's offices or central dispatcher. Data links to central dispatcher � !-- � � - - ----------- ----- - - - , I I I I I I I I I Fiber-optic links I I I I I I I L _ ________ ________ ______ _ I- - - - - -·· ' - 1 .... - 1: ------·�- Station computer Yard data acquisition unit 1 8 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 Protection cluster and data acquisition unit in one enclosure ceived by a protection cluster, the second level of the architectural hierarchy. Each cluster coordinates the information gath­ ered by the data acquisition units under its command and, in turn, controls the opening and closing of circuit breakers. Computations to locate faults in the power system are also executed at this or the next higher level of the hierarchy. A single protection cluster and the data acquisition units attached to it con­ stitute a stand-alone unit that can be added to existing substations without creating a fully integrated system. A new transmission line, for example, could be protected by using such stand-alone units at existing substations on either end. (The same hardware and software modules are used in both the integrated system and stand-alone units.) The highest level of the micropro­ cessor hierarchy for control of an entire substation is the station computer, which coordinates actions among multiple pro­ tection clusters and stores data captured from events on the power system. This computer has a large memory, which can be used, for example, to capture enough data from a fault to produce an oscillo­ graphic record of the current and voltage changes that occurred . Because substa­ tions are often unmanned, the computer also provides the capability of having a communication connection to a utility's offices or a central dispatcher. The substation computer and all protection clusters share information through a data highway-physically, a coaxial cable with multiple connection points. During normal operation, the data highway enables the substation computer to poll each protection cluster once every 100 milliseconds for some data and about once a second for other data. In addition, the operation of the data highway will continue for critical functions even if the substation com­ puter fails. Usually, the substation computer and all protection clusters would be located inside a single control house. Commu- Dialog on the Data Highway Interactive digital communication among the Data link to head office new system 's microprocessors allows faster analysis and mitigation of problems than do conventional systems, and it also provides a continuous record of each incident as it develops. In the example below, the control and protection system m ust deal with the failure of Circuit Breaker A to shunt off a fault current. 1. on the line. �-----·· 2. 1. Cluster A, I still sense a large current --· The fault current is lasting too long, so Breaker A must be inoperative. Cluster B, open appropriate breakers. Station Computer, I've experienced a breaker failure and have instructed Cluster B to act. 4. - - ---.. ,- 3. Station Computer, I have opened Breakers B and C. The breakers operated correctly. 4. Head Office, we had a fault current and failure of Breaker A. Breakers B and C were tripped. The fault current has been taken care of, but investi- gation of the breaker failure is still needed. - ( \ Demonstration at Deans In one of several EPRl/utility-sponsored demon­ strations, Public Service Electric & Gas is testing a fully integrated Westinghouse protec­ tion system at its Deans substation, with a com­ patible stand-alone protective relay terminal from General Electric soon to be added. T he new technology is currently being demonstrated in an open-loop (monitor only) mode but will eventually phase into full operation, including activation of the protection equipment. nication between the protection clusters and the data acquisition units distributed throughout a switchyard is provided by optical-fiber links. Glass or plastic fibers, easier to install than heavy wire cables, provide less-expensive installation be­ cause one fiber cable can replace a num­ ber of wire cables. The fiber links also provide electrical isolation between units and immunity to interference from the electromagnetic fields found near high­ voltage equipment. Precision and flexibility Compared with conventional substation control and protection equipment, the new integrated system offers several ad­ vantages, including greater precision and stability. Each time the system ob­ tains voltage, current, and equipment status data, signals are received from all parts of the switchyard at virtually the same instant (plus or minus 25 micro­ seconds). By sampling such data 16 times per cycle, the system compiles a con­ tinuous record for the substation as a whole and can react to emergencies more quickly on the basis of more information. The digital system offers increased availability, for example, when dealing with system faults. An internal fault oc­ curs on a transmission line being pro­ tected by the system, and an external fault occurs on some other transmission line in the utility network. Given today's highly interconnected power grids, both 20 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 kinds of fault are likely to cause a sudden power surge that would be detected by protection equipment. The correct re­ sponse for such equipment is to open cir­ cuit breakers for an internal fault-thus isolating the damaged line from the rest of the system-but to keep them closed for an external fault. Both the conven­ tional and the new digital protection equipment discriminate between the two types of fault by processing current and voltage values at both ends of a given line and making comparisons of the pro­ cessed information. In this way they can determine whether the fault lies between them or on some external line. Once breakers have been correctly opened, they are often required to reclose auto­ matically once a fault has been cleared. (In the case of a fault caused by lightning, such clearing may occur within fractions of a second.) Conventional systems have individual relay devices dedicated to opening and reclosing particular breakers. These de­ vices must be set, checked, and main­ tained periodically during on-site visits by service personnel. The digital equip­ ment, however, is self-checking, and its response settings can be made remotely by using the built-in communications link. If a circuit board were to fail in one of the microprocessors, for example, for many types of failure the system could alert the central office with a very precise message on an operator's console, such as, "Replace board 17 of bus protection cluster." One of the important factors impeding more-intensive use of power systems is the lack of detailed, accurate data con­ cerning network behavior during faults. Collecting such data with conventional systems requires adding yet another sep­ arate piece of equipment, whereas the integrated systems send sequence-of­ events messages automatically to remote operators after a fault and can then pro­ vide detailed oscillographic data on request. Such information will provide utilities with a more complete under­ standing of how their particular systems respond to disturbances. Automatic fault location also offers utilities a potential cost saving in mainte­ nance. Suppose lightning strikes a trans­ mission line tower in a remote location, causing a current-to-ground fault on one line and possibly damaging an insulator. The fault could be cleared quickly, but doubts would remain about how long the insulator might remain functional. Ordinarily, a utility might send a helicop­ ter crew along the line looking for dam­ age, possibly a considerable time after the event. By locating the fault within a mile or so, the new substation control system would enable a maintenance crew to go directly to the few towers that might have received the lightning strike. Under EPRI sponsorship, Westing­ house Electric has developed both fully integrated and stand-alone protection systems, and General Electric has devel­ oped a compatible stand-alone system. The system is being evaluated by Public Service Electric & Gas (PSE&G). Because of the modularity and compatibility of this equipment, utilities will have great flexibility in adding automated systems to either new or existing substations. "EPRI has committed nearly $10 million and a decade of engineering support to substation automation," says Stig Nils­ son, program manager for transmission substations. "I think we are very close to commercialization of these systems, and I'm particularly pleased by the number of utilities wishing to participate in demon­ stration projects. Without EPRI's help, such systems would have evolved more slowly and in a variety of directions. Our participation brought utility interest to bear on getting systems that would ad­ here to accepted industry standards for reliability and communication system compatibility." Demonstrations The first demonstration of the new tech­ nology began in 1984 under EPRI spon­ sorship at PSE&G. Since that time, two stand-alone terminals-one from each of the manufacturers involved in the pre­ vious development work-have been operating in an open-loop demonstra­ tion at PSE&G's Branchburg substation. (In this mode, the terminals monitor in­ puts from a 500-kV transmission line but do not actually operate any breakers.) Open-loop demonstration of a fully inte­ grated Westinghouse system began re­ cently at the Deans substation, where a stand-alone General Electric terminal has also been delivered. This unit is expected to be integrated with the Westinghouse system during the first half of 1988. This demonstration program is divided into four phases: field acceptance tests, open-loop monitoring activity, staged fault tests, and phase-in to full operation. During the work carried out so far at Branchburg, the terminals have sensed and correctly responded to all faults on the PSE&G system-signaling protective action for the one internal fault that oc­ curred on its own line, while ignoring numerous external faults. 0 ur senior management has been very supportive of what we're doing. We see this as the direction the industry will go," says Howard Petrie, assistant chief controls and electrical engineer at PSE&G. "EPRI did an excellent job coordinating the development work, especially in en­ suring equipment compatibility, which is vital to a utility." Additional EPRI-sponsored demon­ stration programs are also getting under way at Northern States Power, Phila­ delphia Electric, and Tennessee Valley Authority. Empire State Electric Energy Research has funded additional research on the basic EPRI design and made up­ graded terminals available for its own demonstration projects. One such sys­ tem is now operating in an open-loop demonstration on a major interconnec­ tion between Rochester Gas and Electric and Niagara Mohawk Power. Another system is being installed on an under­ ground cable of Consolidated Edison, serving New York City. Future prospects Because all the functions of the new sys­ tems are controlled by software, they can easily be modified with minimal hard­ ware changes. As a result, utilities will be able to add new functions and tailor sub­ station control and protection to meet their specific needs. Several EPRI-devel­ oped monitoring devices for incipient fault detection, for example, could be at­ tached with only minor adaptations in the control system. Such devices include partial discharge detectors for trans­ former monitoring and gas density mon­ itors for gas-insulated substation equip­ ment. "There's virtually no substation moni­ toring or control function that couldn't be included," says Project Manager Larry Manko££. "We're just beginning to ex­ plore the possibilities of this technology. Already it's less expensive than conven­ tional devices, but the biggest potential saving is likely to come in long-term avoidance of capital costs for new lines and transformers." Manko££ explains that at present, rat­ ings for such power equipment are often set on the basis of worst-case analysis. The amount of current that can be carried by ii transmission line, for example, may be limited by air temperature-a line is more likely to overheat on a hot day. By using an actual line-temperature monitor attached to an integrated substation con­ trol system or an accurate model, current could safely be increased above normal rating levels during periods of unusually large demand. Having fostered development of the technology and encouraged equipment compatibility among the leading ven­ dors, EPRI is now focusing on bringing substation automation into full commer­ cial use. In addition to sponsoring some demonstration projects and assisting in others, the Institute has formed a utility users group for the exchange of informa­ tion on system operations. The group, which meets three times a year, consists of utilities that have either installed the new equipment or placed orders for it. Although few new substations or transmission lines are now being added to utility networks, the need for both is expected to increase over the next few years as wheeling of power from one part of the country to another continues to grow. "Utilities may not replace existing analog equipment with the new digital systems," says Manko££, "but as the de­ mand for new lines and substations rises, I expect these highly automated systems will become the technology of choice." • This article was written by John Douglas, science writer. Technical background information was provided by Narain Hingorani, Stig Nilsson, and Larry Mankoff, Electrical Sys­ tems Division. EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 21 Simulators: Tough Trainin for Top Operator S I M U LATED W hen a steam generator tube ruptured at Virginia Pow­ er's North Anna station (Unit 1) on the morning of July 15, 1987, the operators on duty knew exactly what to do. Within five minutes of the first indications of the rupture, the operators had manually tripped Unit 1 and were on their way to isolating the failed tube and bringing the plant to a safe, cold shutdown. Since there have been only six steam generator tube fail­ ures in the history of commercial nuclear 22 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 power operations around the world, it might be suprising to learn that all the North Anna operators had successfully handled such incidents dozens of times before. "Granted, during 19 years of duty on U.S. Navy and civilian reactors I had never seen an actual tube rupture before," says Tom Porter, assistant shift supervi­ sor at North Anna during the incident. "But, I had seen the procedure for re­ sponding to tube rupture performed many times on our plant simulator." Full-scale simulators that allow nuclear reactor operators to learn and practice normal, abnormal, and emergency oper­ ating procedures in a realistic setting have become fixtures in the United States nuclear power industry. These huge, $10 million-$15 million systems combine high-speed computers with nearly exact, full-scale replicas of power plant control rooms, providing utilities with an unpar­ alleled tool for operator training. Simula­ tors allow operators to train on an inter­ active system that offers the authentic Full-scale control room simulators, virtual duplicates of the real things, l'lave become an essential part of nuclear plant operator training. �ow researchers are using the simulator as a laboratory for studying equipment, procedures, and modes of human performance. ACTUAL look and feel of the power plant's con­ trols, as well as accurate, real-time feed­ back on the results of their actions. As the centerpiece of rigorous new training programs that have been developed and implemented in the industry since the TMI-2 accident in 1979, the plant simula­ tor has become a focal point for opera­ tional excellence at many utilities and a symbol of operator professionalism and pride. While helping to transform the nature of operator training in the nuclear power industry, the plant simulator has also emerged as a valuable analytic tool. By monitoring training sessions or tempo­ rarily dedicating a simulator to labora­ tory experiments, utilities can gauge the effectiveness of new control room equip­ ment, validate new procedures, and con­ duct research on operator reliability for use in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and evaluation of design alterna­ tives. "The plant simulator can enhance the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants in many different ways," says David Worledge, manager of EPRI's Risk Assessment Program. "Simulator training can reduce scrams and accidents by improving the proficiency of the oper­ ator, and it can also provide us with im­ portant insights into larger questions about the human interface in the nuclear plant control room and the reliability of the operator." Evolution of the technology As plant simulators have become more capable and their value more apparent to EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 23 utilities and regulators, the number of simulators in use in the industry has grown from only 4 generic, vendor­ owned simulators in existence in the early 1970s to 10 vendor simulators and nearly 70 utility-owned systems in ser­ vice today. Most utility reactors or reactor complexes now have their own simula­ tors that model individual control rooms and are programmed with data on condi­ tions and responses to operator actions that are specific to each plant. In addi­ tion, these simulators can be continually reprogrammed to account for plant mod­ ifications and new technical data on plant conditions that may become available. Different forces have helped drive the acceptance of simulator technology by the nuclear power industry, beginning with a shortage of qualified reactor oper­ ators that was first felt by utilities in the early 1970s. "Before the development of simulators, operators trained somewhat like surgeons, looking over the shoulders of other operators," says Jean-Pierre Sur­ sock, manager of EPRI's Safety Control and Testing Program. "Sometimes small test reactors or units that were shut down or operating at low power were used for training, but these were not al­ ways available and couldn't offer practice on abnormal conditions or emergencies. With so many new and different plants coming on-line in the 1970s, utilities be­ gan to look for a better way to train the large numbers of operators that they were going to need." During the 1970s plant simulators evolved from generic tools for teaching principles of reactor operation to systems capable of modeling actual plant condi­ tions in real time with great detail and accuracy. These changes followed from advances in computer technology that increased processing speed and reduced the size and cost of hardware, as well as from the greater availability of plant tech­ nical data for simulator programming that accrued as more plants came on-line. Generic vendor-owned training simula­ tors were developed first, followed by 24 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 Simulator Training in Action T he plant-specific simulator at Pennsylvania Power & Light's Susquehanna plant is the anchor for a rigorous program of operator training that has helped the two-unit BWR achieve one of the outstanding operating records in the industry. As a central component . of both initial and ongoing requalification training for operators, the Susquehanna simu­ lator includes a state-of-the-art 32-bit computer and a nearly exact replica of the plant's control rooms. Operating crews learn from classroom instruction, h ands-on practice with the controls, and instructive dialogue with trainers and training supervisors, w h o are th e m selves licensed operators. an .H .u .l Flips I I H. :1 3. . vendor-owned simulators that refer­ enced particular plant designs, and then, eventually, by utility orders for plant­ specific systems. By the late 1970s, nearly a dozen pioneering utilities had commit­ ted to plant-specific systems. The industry seemed on its way to gradually adopting simulator training, a progression that was accelerated by the 1979 accident at TMI-2. Operator error was identified as an important contrib­ uting factor to the accident, which was followed by a call from NRC and several independent study groups for exami­ nation and improvement of operator training across the industry. The result­ ing changes in regulations established a new set of qualifications for operators, including the requirement that they pass simulator tests as part of their initial li­ censing exams and undergo requalifica­ tion training on a regular schedule . The new regulations, together with steadily improving computer technology and a growing awareness in the industry of the importance of operator training in ensur­ ing reactor safety, motivated dozens of other utilities to order plant-specific sim­ ulators after TMI-2 and to develop train­ ing programs to go with them. Formation of the Institute for Nuclear Power Operations (INPO) by U . S . nu­ clear utilities in 1980 has also bolstered and improved simulator training across the industry. As part of its program to promote improved safety and reliability in U . S . nuclear power plants, INPO pub­ lished a widely used guideline to help utilities design and implement simulator training programs. Following this guide­ line, utilities can be assured that their simulator training programs meet the cri­ teria established in ANS 3.5, a standards document approved by NRC. INPO also reviews and evaluates training programs as part of the periodic technical evalua­ tions it conducts at the nuclear plants of its member utilities. In addition, in 1985 INPO formed the National Academy for Nuclear Training, an organization that evaluates and grants 26 EPRI JOU RNAL June 1988 accreditation to utility training and quali­ fication programs, including operator training both in the classroom and on plant simulators . To grant and renew ac­ creditation, technical experts from the academy regularly visit member utilities to evaluate simulator training programs and make recommendations for changes in their format and scope. "We have a cooperative and instructive relationship with the INPO staff, and they've made some helpful suggestions that we've worked into our training," says Ray Raguse, training manager at Common­ wealth Edison's LaSalle plant, an accred­ ited member of the National Academy. "When you're committed to a high stan­ dard of excellence in training and oper­ ator performance, you need to be con­ stantly interested in improving your program." As they work with INPO on operator training, many utilities are exploring re­ cent advances in computer technology that can enhance the capabilities of their plant simulators. Equipped with the lat­ est generation of high-speed 32-bit com­ puters, today's most capable simulators can model virtually any plant condition or malfunction that can exist physically. In addition, the most functionally pow­ erful modern systems can model tran­ sients as they develop over long periods of time and as they are influenced by operator interventions. This gives oper­ ators the chance to gain control of a simu­ lated accident over a period of several hours, just as they might do in a real­ world situation. T he state of the art in simulator technology also includes a high level of detail in the physical modeling of the control room. Most plant simulators currently are equipped with replicas of control panels that stand behind or apart from main panels, telephone hookups to technical support centers and emergency response facilities, and models of plant CRT­ equipped systems, such as the safety parameter display system (SPDS). During a simulator training session, operators often make the same kinds of phone calls they would during a real transient, re­ questing consultation from plant manag­ ers or making requests for equipment checks or adjustments on plant systems not under automatic surveillance or control. Training for excellence For the reactor operators, senior reactor operators, shift supervisors, and shift technical advisers who compose a con­ trol room crew, the plant simulator figures as an important, although by no means the sole, component of their ini­ tial and requalification training . Oper­ ators at Pacific Gas and Electric's Diablo Canyon plant, for one example, prepare for their initial licensing exams in a 56week course that consists of classroom training, instructional tours of the plant, observation of the actual control room, and simulator training on a wide range of normal and abnormal operating condi­ tions. This course prepares the operator candidate for the NRC's three-part licens­ ing exam, which includes oral questions and answers during a plant walk­ through, a written examination, and test­ ing on a simulator. Operators who re­ ceive their licenses will then dedicate one week out of six for the remainder of their careers to requalification training, in­ cluding nine hours of simulator practice during each requalification week. A typical requalification session on the simulator will include a mix of different exercises. These range from practice on normal operating procedures, such as plant startups and power reductions, to preparation for unlikely emergency situ­ ations, such as station blackouts or breaks in large pipes and loss of coolant. During regualification, most utilities de­ sign simulator exercises to parallel class­ room instruction given during the same day or week. Following a classroom re­ view on a particular accident or category of accidents, the operators move to the simulator for hands-on practice in the lessons learned. The operators know what type of procedure they will be prac­ ticing but are usually not prebriefed on the particular developments (failures of specific pumps or valves, for example) that they will be asked to handle as the event unfolds on the simulator. This training structure helps operators de­ velop a true understanding of the prin­ ciples at work in the reactor, while also preparing for the many different even­ tualities that may occur within a category of accidents. The interactive features of plant simu­ lators provide some unique training op­ portunities. On most systems the trainer can speed up a transient or accident se­ quence so operators can watch it de­ velop, freeze the sequence at a critical point to discuss the control room indi- Practice Makes Perfect During initial and requalification training, operators practice a wide scope of normal, abnormal, and emergency procedures on the plant simulator, sharp­ ening their skills and establishing the patterns of communication that they will count on in the control room. T ypical of the challenges served up in simulator training is the one cited in simplified form below, where operators must close a stuck-open BWR safety relief valve (SRV) in two minutes or else scram the reactor to avoid operation without a fully functional safety system. 0:00 minutes. An acoustic alarm in the simu­ lator rings, just as it would in the control room, indicating that the SRV is stuck open. 0:00-0:20. Immediately responding to the alarm, operators follow off-normal procedures and check the valve tail pipe temperatures and main power indicators to confirm that the valve is indeed open. 0:20-0:50. T he valve is confirmed as stuck open. In accordance with procedures, one of the licensed operators attempts to automatically close, or cycle, the valve. 0:45-0:50, T he troublesome valve, however, does not respond to the controls. The shift supervisor orders the operators to prepare for a reactor scram. 0:50-1:45. In preparation for the scram, in­ house power loads are transferred to off-site. Oil pumps are started to lubricate the main turbine. One of the crew telephones the utility's power control center to inform distribution personnel that the plant is coming off-line. 1 :50. T he shift supervisor orders a manual scram of the reactor. T he reactor is scrammed, and the crew begin actions to bring the plant to a cold shutdown over the next several hours. Methodology for Simulator Qualification I n April of this year NRC announced that as of 1992 utilities will be re­ quired to qualify their simulators as part of the operator qualification pro­ cess. Anticipating these regulatory changes and responding to utility needs for guidance on the technical evaluation of their simulators, in 1985 EPRI completed the Analytic Simulator Qualification Methodology (NP-4243). Using the methodology, utilities evaluate their simulators on the basis of their training objectives. In a step­ by-step fashion, the utility demon­ strates the accuracy or fidelity of the simulator in modeling control room functions and plant conditions. The utility also demonstrates that the sim­ ulator has the necessary range of capa­ bilities or scope to model the many different normal, abnormal, and emergency procedures used in a train­ ing program. The overall process can establish that a simulator meets the criteria for fidelity and scope outlined in ANS 3.5, an NRC-approved stan­ dards document. The methodology guides utilities in the use of both plant data and engi­ neering codes, such as the EPRI­ developed RETRAN, to establish simu­ lator fidelity. Because actual plant data on conditions during hypothetical ac­ cident scenarios are not always avail­ able, computerized tools like RETRAN can play an important role in the de­ velopment, validation, and qualifica­ tion of simulator programs for model­ ing accidents. D 28 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 cators and correct procedural response, and then replay the entire sequence with the operators now encouraged to take ac­ tion at the appropriate time. If operators make diagnostic or procedural errors at any point in a training session, they can later examine recorded data or replay the simulated plant response to identify their errors and learn from their mistakes. In other cases, trainers may call a spe­ cial lab session on the simulator to famil­ iarize operators with a plant modification or emerging operational issue. In gen­ eral, simulator training sessions usually proceed somewhat like the making of a movie, including both intense periods of operator activity and frequent interrup­ tions from a trainer to discuss what has occurred and what will happen next. Communication is an important ele­ ment in simulator training: operators learn to work together as a team, reading out loud from control panel instruments and receiving oral orders to follow de­ tailed procedures. A senior member of the crew typically takes the lead role dur­ ing a transient or emergency, reading from documented procedures that are based on plant indicators or symptoms. Following the completion of each step or series of steps in the procedures, the reader waits for word from the other operators on the plant's response before identifying and ordering the next step. The plant simulator gives operators the chance to practice this process and de­ velop the communication skills they need to effectively function as a team. The simulator as laboratory Lessons learned from use of the plant simulator can benefit utilities in ways that go beyond improvements in the skills of individual operators and crews. The simulator can also function as a labo­ ratory for safely testing new procedures, new control room equipment, and that most complex of all systems employed in a nuclear power plant-the human. The question of human reliability and its part in determining the risks of reactor operation looms especially large in the aftermath of the core-disruptive accident at TMI-2 and the far more destructive re­ activity accident at Chernobyl, both of which included operator error as contrib­ uting causes. Now that lessons learned from TMI-2 have been incorporated into improved training and operations across the U.S. nuclear power industry, researchers in an EPRI-sponsored series of operator reli­ ability experiments (ORE) are using plant simulators to quantify operator perfor­ mance and develop more-realistic mod­ els of human reliability. During ORE, researchers are keeping score during requalification training at six reactor sites in the United States and two training facilities in France, measur­ ing operator performance in the realistic settings that plant-specific simulators provide. In the course of ORE, project in­ vestigators will note the degree of suc­ cess of operator crews in bringing a range of simulated accidents under control within predetermined time intervals. Sci­ entists will then use these data points to improve human reliability computer models, which in turn will be used in PRAs and in the design of future nuclear power plants. An important goal of ORE is to support the development of PRAs that will ac­ count for both the positive and negative roles that operators are likely to play in various accident sequences. "In widely used risk assessments, such as WASH1400, the operator is considered largely in terms of the probability of his making a mistake and adding to plant risks," ex­ plains David Worledge. "Through ORE we hope to build models that will also allow for the probability that operators will take effective action to avert core damage during an accident." In addition to making quantitative measurements of operator performance, researchers in the ORE project will ob­ serve and document such factors as the patterns of communication in the control room, the use of specific types of dis- The Value of Practice Simulator Training Takes Off Data gathered in EPRl's Operator Reliability Experiments show that operators performing frequently practiced, or skill-based, actions are quickest in correctly responding to accident conditions. These data suggest that some utilities might improve human reliability factors by putting a greater emphasis on skill-based training and procedures. Orders for full-scale nuclear plant simulators by utilities and nuclear steam supply system vendors increased rapidly following the TMl-2 accident in 1979, when new regulations made simulator training part of the operator qualification process. Today there are 10 vendor-owned systems and nearly 70 plant-specific utility systems in service or on order. 14 - 12 - :a ro .g 10 [I! 0.1 a, rJ) C: 0 C. rJ) a, 0 z 0 "' C ::J C 0 - � � C :::, LL >- oy � cii (/) Allowed Out-of-Service Time Surveillance Test Interval Analysis A Analysis B The methodology was successfully demonstrated in a case study of the emergency care cooling system (ECCS) and containment heat removal function STls and AOTs for the Hatch-2 plant. Hatch-2 plant models were developed to identify and evaluate trade-offs. Projected costs or cost savings associated with each proposed specification change were also developed and integ rated i nto an optimization model . From the many combinations possible, the process led to the identification of a proposed set of optimal STls and AOTs for those Hatch-2 systems. The proposed set o f STI a n d AOT changes can be characterized as follows. o Three STls were to be tightened from three months to two months, while 24 STls and AOTs were to be extended . o Operating costs would be reduced by doing fewer tests, thus avoiding unneces­ sary plant shutdowns, improving repair of fai led equipment, causing less wear on equi pment, and reducing diversion of plant personnel. o Plant safety would be unchanged by en­ suring that the combined effects of the final proposed STI and AOT changes do not de­ crease safety (Figure 1 ) . Because Hatch-2 is a representative BWR plant, application of the same methodology 54 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 to other BWR plants can be expected to lead to the same type of STI and AOT improve­ ments. The methodology can also be ap­ plied to the analysis of other reactor func­ tions (e. g . , containment isolation) and to evaluations for temporary technical speci­ fication rel ief on short notice. In the latter evaluations, other trade-offs (e. g . , addi­ tional testing during the extended AOT) may be made to justify continued plant opera­ tion. The study will be reported in an EPRI report on reliability- and risk-based techni­ cal specification improvements to the ECCS and the contain ment heat removal system at Hatch. This demonstrated risk-based analysis method is now ready for wide utility applica­ tion , and it shou ld play a significant role in the i mplementation of new technical speci­ fications that will resu lt from the industry and NRC reform efforts now under way. Achievement The methodology can be used for optimiz­ ing individual techn ical specifications and for considering multiple specifications on a single system or multiple specifications on multiple systems. The process has proved useful for optimizing STls and AOTs and for evaluating the need for trip set points. In add ition , the method is appl icable to evalu­ ation of permanent changes in technical specifications, or it can be used for tempo­ rary relief from a specification requirement that might otherwise require a shutdown. New Techn ical Reports Requests for copies of reports should be directed to Research Reports Center, P 0. Box 50490, Palo Alto, California 94303; (41 5) 965-4081 . There is no charge for reports requested by EPRI rnernber utilities, U.S. universities, or government agencies. Others in the United States, Mexico, and Canada pay the listed price. Overseas price is double the listed price. Re­ search Reports Center wil l send a catalog of EPRI reports on request. For information on how to order one-page surnrnaries of reports, contact the EPRI Technical Information Division, P.O. Box 1 0412, Palo Alto, California 94303; (415) 855-241 1 . ADVANCED POWER SYSTEMS Proceedings: 12th Annual EPRI Contractors' Conference on Fuel Science and Conversion AP-5460-SR Proceed ings; $55 EPRI Project Manager: H. Lebowitz Development of Beta Batteries for Utility Application AP-5575 Final Report (RP1 28-7); $40 Contractor: General Electric Co. EPRI Project Manager: R. Weaver Development of Beta Batteries for Utility Application AP-5576 Interim Report (RP128-7); $32.50 Contractor: General Electric Co. EPRI Project Manager: R. Weaver Downwell Pump Reliability: Geothermal Experience Update AP-5600 Final Report (RP2559-1); $32.50 Contractor: Radian Corp. EPRI Project Manager: J. Berning Repowering Options Study AP-561 1 Final Report (RP2565-1 1 ) ; $32.50 Contractor: Florida Power & Light Co. EPRI Project Manager: H . Schreiber Erosion-Corrosion of Materials in Coal-Water Slurries AP-5628 Final Report (RP2048-9); $25 Contractor: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory EPRI Project Manager: W Bakker COAL COMBUSTION SYSTEMS Strategy for Fossi l Plant Life Extension at Niagara Mohawk's Huntley-67 CS-4780 Final Report (RP2596-3); $500 Contractor: Niagara Mohawk Power Corp. EPRI Project Manager: D. Broske Remaining-Life Estimation of Boiler Pressure Parts, Vol. 2: Miniature Specimen Creep Testing CS-5588 Final Report (RP2253-1 ); $400 Contractor: Combustion Engineering, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: R. Viswanathan Effects of Selected Water Treatments and Cathodic Protection on Corrosion and Embrittlement of Condenser Tubes CS-5589 Final Report (RP1 689-3); $300 Contractor: Ocean City Research Corp. EPRI Project Manager: B. Syrett Engineering Assessment of Condenser Deaeration Retrofits for Cycling Fossil Plants CS-5601 Final Report (RP1689-13); $32.50 Contractors: Burns and Roe Enterprises, Inc.; Bechtel National, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: J. Tsou Multitechnique Corrosion Monitoring in Flue Gas Desulfurization Systems: Phase 1 CS-5605 Interim Report (RP1871-14); $200 Contractor: Corrosion and Protection Centre I ndustrial Services EPRI Project Manager: B. Syrett Sampling and Analytic Protocol for Advanced S02 Control By-products CS-5625 Final Report (RP2708-1); $47.50 Contractor: ICF Tec hnology Inc. EPRI Project Manager: D. Golden Fossil Unit Performance: 1965-1984 CS-5627 Final Report (RP1266-31); $32.50 Contractor: The S. M. Stoller Corporation EPRI Project Manager: T. McCloskey ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS Optimization of Reactive Volt-Ampere (VAR) Sources in System Planning, Vol. 2: User's Manual EL-3729-CCM Computer Code Manual (RP21 09-1 ); Vol. 2, $32.50 Contractor: Scientific Systems, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: N. Balu Advanced Power System Security Analysis Concepts, Vol. 3: New Security Measures and Multiple Contingency Selection Methods EL-4522 Final Report (RP1 999-1 ); $40 Contractor: Michigan State University EPRI Project Manager: M. Lauby TLWorkstation Code: Version 1.1 ; Vol. 8: DYNAMP Manual EL-4540-CCM Computer Code Manual (RP2546-1); $25 Contractor: Georgia Institute of Technology EPRI Project Manager: R. Kennon Reliability Evaluation for Large-Scale Bulk Transmission Systems, Vols. 1 and 2 EL-5291 Final Report (RP1530-2); Vol. 1, $55; Vol. 2, $32.50 Contractor: Power Technologies, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: N. Balu Mathematical Decomposition Techniques for Power System Expansion Planning, Vols. 1-5 EL-5299 Final Report (RP2473-6); Vol. 1 , $32.50; Vol. 2, $32.50; Vol. 3, $25; Vol. 4 , $25; Vol. 5, $25 Contractor: Stanford U niversity EPRI Project Managers: M. Pereira, N. Balu Gas-Insulated Substations: Reliability Research Program, Vols. 1 and 2 EL-5551 Final Report (RP1360-7); Vol. 1 , $10,000; EL-5551-CCM Computer Code Manual, Vol. 2, $10,000 Contractor: Ontario Hydro Research EPRI Project Manager: V Tahiliani Distributed Fiber-Optics Hot Spot Sensor EL-5568 Final Report (RP2308-6); $25 Contractor: Battelle, Columbus Division EPRI Project Manager: J. Stein Proceedings: 1987 EPRI PCB Seminar EA/EL-5612 Proceedings (RP2028); $55 EPRI Project Managers: V. Niemeyer, G. Addis Development of Expert Systems as On-Line Power System Operational Aids EL-5635 Final Report (RP1999-9); $25 Contractor: University of Washington EPRI Project Manager: M. Lauby Knowledge-Based Systems for Electric Utility Operation Using the PROLOG Language EL-5666 Final Report (RP2473-8); $32.50 Contractor: Union Electric Co. EPRI Project Manager: M. Lauby ENERGY MANAGEMENT AND UTILIZATION Demand-Side Management, Vols. 4 and 5 EA/EM-3597 Final Report (RP2381 -4); Vol. 4, $ 1 000 Vol. 5, forthcoming Contractors: Battelle-Colurnbus Division; Synergic Resources Corp., Enviro-Managernent and Research, Inc. EPRI Project Managers: W. Srnith, C Gellings, 0 . Zimmerman, A . Faruqui FORECAST MASTER, User's Manual, Version 2.1 EM-5309-CCM Computer Code Manual (RP2279-2); $32.50 Contractors: Business Forecast Systems; Quantitative Economic Research, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: R. Squitieri Water-Loop Heat Pump Systems: Assessment Study EM-5437 Final Report (RP2480-2); $150 Contractor: Joseph A. Pietsch, P.E. EPRI Project Manager: M. Blatt Sealed Lead-Acid Electric Vehicle Battery EM-5471 Final Report (RP221 6-1 ); $25 Contractor: Jet Propulsion Laboratory EPRI Project Manager: B. Spindler EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 55 Energy Use and Conservation in the Commercial Sector, Vols. 1 and 2 EM-5578 Final Report (RP21 52-1 ); Vol. 1 , $32.50; Vol. 2, $32.50 Contractors: Applied Econometrics, Inc.; Temple, Barker & Sloane, Inc. EPRI Project Managers: P. Hanser, J. Wharton Implicit Discount Rates in Residential Customer Choices, Vols. 1 and 2 EM-5587 Final Report (RP2547-1); Vol. 1 , $32.50; Vol. 2, $25 Contractor: Cambridge Systematics, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: S. Braithwait EMPS-2.1 Computer Program for Residential Building Energy Analysis-Engineering Manual EM-5610 Final Report (RP2034-16); $32.50 Contractor: Arthur D. Little, Inc. EPRI Project Managers: G. Purcell, J. Kesselring DSM: Market Research Issues and Methods EM-5632 Final Report (RP2548-1); $1000 Contractors: Xenergy, Inc.; Opinion Research Corp . ; Battelle, Columbus Division EPRI Project Managers: W. Smith, L. Lewis DSM Commercial Customer Acceptance, Vols. 1 and 2 EM-5633 Final Report (RP2548-1); Vol. 1 , $1000; Vol. 2, forthcoming Contractors: Xenergy, Inc . ; Battelle, Columbus Division EPRI Project Managers: W. Smith, L. Lewis ENVIRONMENT Demand-Side Management, Vols. 4 and 5 EA/EM-3597 Final Report (RP2381 -4); Vol. 4, $1 000 Vol. 5, forthcoming Contractors: Battelle-Columbus Division; Synergic Resources Corp., Enviro-Management and Research, Inc. EPRI Project Managers: W. Smith, C. Gellings, 0. Zimmerman, A. Faruqui Groundwater Assessment Modeling Under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act EA-5342 Final Report (RP2070-1); $40 Contractor: Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories EPRI Project Managers: P. Ricci, R. Wyzga Urban Power Plant Plume Studies EA-5468 Final Report (RP2736-1); $40 Contractor: TRC Environmental Consultants, Inc. EPRI Project Managers: G. Hilst, G. Beals Proceedings: EPRI Air Quality Modeling Contractors Meeting EA-5571 Proceedings (RP1 630-21 ) ; $32.50 Contractor: SRI International EPRI ProJect Managers: G. Hilst, P. Mueller Chemical Spill Exposure Assessment Methodology EA-5572 Final Report (RP2634-1); $40 Contractor: CH2M Hill EPRI Project Manager: A. Silvers 56 EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 Proceedings: 1987 EPRI PCB Seminar EA/EL-5612 Proceedings (RP2028); $55 EPRI Project Managers: V Niemeyer, G. Addis Review of Selenium Thermodynamic Data EA-5655 Final Report (RP2020-3); $25 Contractor: Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories EPRI Project Manager: D. Porcella NUCLEAR POWER Experimental Study of Diversion Cross-Flow Caused by Subchannel Blockages, Vol. 2: Two-Phase Flow NP-3459 Final Report (RP1378-1 ); Vol. 2, $62.50 Contractor: Ecole Polytechnique de Montreal EPRI Project Manager: M. Merilo Application Guidelines for Check Valves in Nuclear Power Plants NP-5479 Final Report (RP2233-20); $47.50 Contractor: MPR Associates, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: B. Brooks Decommissioning U.S. Reactors: Current Status and Developing Issues NP-5494 Final Report (RP2759-1); $32.50 Contractor: Pentek Inc. EPRI Project Manager: C. Welty Radwaste Generation Survey Update, Vols. 1 and 2 NP-5526 Final Report (RP1557-26); Vol. 1 , $5000; Vol . 2, $5000 Contractor: Analytical Resources, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: P. Robinson Evaluation of High-Energy Pipe Rupture Experiments NP-5531 Final Report (RP2176-2); $32.50 Contractors: Structural Integ rity Associates, Inc. ; S. Levy, Inc. EPRI Project Manager: A. Singh Remote Calibration of Resistance Temperature Devices (RTDs) NP-5537 Final Report (RP2254-1); $40 Contractor: Oak Ridge National Laboratory EPRI Project Manager: J. Weiss Tubesheet Expansion Improvements NP-5547 Final Report (RPS303-29); $32.50 Contractor: Westinghouse Electric Corp. EPRI Project Manager: A. Mcllree NDE and Mechanical Removal of Sludge in PWR Steam Generators, Vols. 1 and 2 NP-5563 Final Report (RPS403-2, -4, RP2755-2-1 1 ) ; Vol. 1, $32.50; Vol. 2, $55 Contractors: Anco Engineers, Inc; Babcock & Wilcox Co.; Combustion Engineering, Inc.; Dominion Engineering, Inc.; Foster-Miller, Inc. ; LN Technologies Corp.; Westinghouse Electric Corp. EPRI Project Manager: L. Williams CALENDAR For additional information on the meetings listed below, p lease contact the person indicated. AUGUST 9-10 Harmonic Effect on Large Induction Motors Albany, New York Contact: Jan Stei n (415) 855-2390 11-12 Workshop: Appendix K Relief, Using Best-Estimate Codes Cambridge, Massachusetts Contact: Pal Kalra (415) 855-2414 30-September 1 2d Conference on Cycle Chemistry in Fossil Fuel Plants Seattle, Washington Contact: Barry Dooley (415) 855-2458 SEPTEMBER 15-16 5th Annual Workshop Sponsored by NSAC and Operational Reactor Safety Engineering and Review Groups San Diego, California Contact: Bill Reuland (415) 855-2977 19-21 3d National Conference: Environmental and Public Health Effects of Soils Contaminated With Petroleum Products Amherst, Massachusetts Contact: Mary Mclearn (415) 855-2487 or Gordon Newell (415) 855-2573 21-23 2d International Symposium: Probabilistic Methods Applied to Electric Utilities Oakland, California Contact: Dick Kennon (415) 855-2311 OCTOBER 4-6 FASTCHEM and FOWL: Codes for Modeling the Release, Transport, and Fate of Inorganic Chemicals in Groundwater Washington, D.C. Contact: Dave McI ntosh (415) 855-7918 13-15 Fuel Supply Seminar Kansas City, Missouri Contact: Jeremy Platt (415) 855-2628 Authors and Articles Hidy Mankoff Spencer Yeager Sursock Hingorani Edmonds Nilsson T he Politics of Climate (page 4) was written by Michael Shepard, senior feature writer, who consulted with three EPRI vice presidents and their technical staff members. George Hidy, director of the Envi­ ronment Division since May 1987, was formerly president of the Desert Re­ search Institute of the University of Nevada. Earlier, he directed environ­ mental laboratories for Energy Re­ search and Technology (nine years), Rockwell International (six years), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (six years). Dwain Spencer, director of the Ad­ vanced Power Systems Division since 1979, came to EPRI in 1974 from the Caltech Jet Propulsion Laboratory, where he had worked for 16 years, the final 2 years on loan to the National Science Foundation, designing a pro­ gram of solar energy research. Kurt Yeager, director of the Coal Combustion Systems Division since 1979, joined EPRI in 1974 after two years with the EPA Office of Research, where he was director of energy R&D planning. He had previously been associate head of environmental sys­ tems research at The MITRE Corp. • B uilding the Smarter Substation (page 16) was written by science writer John Douglas, assisted by three Electrical Systems Division staff members. Narain Hingorani, director of the division and an EPRI vice president, came to the position 2 years ago, hav­ ing been director of the Transmission Department since 1983 and an Insti­ tute staff member since 1974. He was formerly with the Bonneville Power Administration for 6 years, and before that he spent 11 years in research, teaching, and consulting on the facul­ ties of three British universities. Stig Nilsson, long-time manager of the Transmission Substations Pro­ gram, has been with EPRI since 1975. He was briefly with Boeing Computer Services in the early 1970s, and before that he was with Sweden's ASEA for 11 years, coming to the United States in 1967 to install and test control equipment on the Pacific Northwest­ Southwest HVDC Intertie. Lawrence Manko££ is a project manager specializing in protective re­ laying and controls. He joined EPRI in April 1987, after 38 years with General Electric, the last 18 years as manager of engineering for power systems. • S imulators: Tough Training for Top Operators (page 22) was writ­ ten by Jon Cohen, science writer, aided by two program managers of EPRI's Nuclear Power Division. David Worledge works in safety technology, particularly in accident risk assessment. He has been with EPRI since 1981. Worledge was pre­ viously with the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority for several years, first in fast reactor studies and eventually as head of the UKAEA systems reliability service. He also worked for two years in fast reactor studies at Sandia Laboratories in Los Alamos, New Mexico. Jean-Pierre Sursock has managed a program of reactor safety control and testing since August 1984. He came to EPRI as a project manager in 1976 after three years in nuclear power en­ gineering with General Electric. • E arly Warning for Hydro Gener­ ator Failure (page 30) was written by John Douglas, science writer, with guidance from two staff members of EPRI's Electrical Systems Division. James Edmonds, a project manager in the Plant Electrical Systems and Equipment Program since 1978, fo­ cuses on problems of physical stress in generator components. He was for­ merly with American Electric Power Service for eight years, becoming staff electrical engineer for all rotating ma­ chinery on the AEP system. J C. White manages the Plant Elec­ trical Systems and Equipment Pro­ gram. He has been with EPRI since 1979, following 32 years in electrical machinery engineering with General Electric at Schenectady, New York, where he became manager of product engineering. • EPRI JOURNAL June 1988 57 E L E C T R I C P O W E R R ES E A R C H I N ST I T U T E Post Office B o x 1 0 4 1 2 , P a l o A l t o , C a l i fo r n i a 9 4 3 0 3 NONPROFIT ORGAN IZATION U.S. POSTAGE PAID PERMIT N U M BER 60 SUNNYVALE, CALIFORNIA EPRIJOURNAL ADDRESS COR RECTION REQUESTED c... C :::! CD (0 co co