UR: THE FUTURE OF ARLINGTON NATIONAL CEMETERY: REPORT ON THE INTERMENT AND INURNMENT CAPACITY 2017 ARLINGTON NATIONA CEIVIETERY . . . Generated 1n FIE-11D i Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... iv 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History........................................................ 1 2. Current Interment and Inurnment Capacity of Arlington National Cemetery.......................... 7 2.1 The Impact of Space on Arlington National Cemetery’s Capacity .................................. 8 2.2 The Impact of Eligibility and Veteran Demand on Arlington National Cemetery’s Capacity ........................................................................................................................ 9 3. Shaping the Future: Potential Options and Action Plan ......................................................12 3.1 Framework for Evaluating Options ...............................................................................12 3.2 Options to Explore: Legislative Actions and Non-Legislative Options that Ensure Arlington National Cemetery Does Not Reach Capacity Until Well into the Future .......14 3.2.1 Option 1: Redefining eligibility criteria for interment and inurnment at Arlington National Cemetery. ............................................................................................14 3.2.2 Option 2: Considerations for additional expansion opportunities beyond current boundaries of the cemetery. ...............................................................................20 3.2.3 Option 3: Other alternative approaches.............................................................23 3.3 Evaluating the Options and Courses of Action .............................................................27 3.3.1 Key findings and take-aways regarding the options for extending Arlington National Cemetery as an active cemetery ..........................................................27 3.3.2 Evaluating potential courses of action for the future of Arlington National Cemetery ...........................................................................................................28 3.3.3 Sample Course of Action 1 ................................................................................30 3.3.4 Sample Course of Action 2 ................................................................................32 3.4 An Action Plan for Shaping the Future of Arlington National Cemetery ........................36 Appendices A. B. C. D. E. Reference Documents ............................................................................................... A-1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................................... B-1 List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................ C-1 Historical Review of Arlington National Cemetery Eligibility ........................................ D-1 Comparing Eligibility at Arlington National Cemetery and the Department of Veterans Affairs Cemeteries (Most Common Eligibility Criteria) ................................................ E-1 F. Screenshot from the Center for Army Analysis Capacity Modeling Tool ..................... F-1 G. Stakeholder Engagement Register.............................................................................G-1 H. Definitions of Options to Extend Arlington National Cemetery as an Active Cemetery ...................................................................................................................H-1 I. Detailed Breakdown of Course of Action Analysis: A Framework for Evaluating the Sample Courses of Action ........................................................................................... I-1 ii Table of Figures Figure 1: Options included in sample COA 1 .............................................................................. vi Figure 2: Options included in sample COA 2 ............................................................................. vii Figure 3: Significant eligibility changes based on veteran status ................................................ 4 Figure 4: Projected capacity of first interments at ANC under current space and eligibility conditions .................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 5: Map of ANC depicting space for the Millennium Project (gold) and the proposed Southern Expansion Project (blue), 2015..................................................................... 8 Figure 6: Source: Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016). .................10 Figure 7: Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, National Cemetery Administration, Policy and Planning Service. (2015). National Cemetery Administration Summary of Veteran Interments: FY2000 to FY2014 [Data Set]. ....................................................11 Figure 8: Table of options (for detailed descriptions see appendix H) .......................................13 Figure 9: Description of criteria .................................................................................................13 Figure 10: Methodology for sample COA development .............................................................14 Figure 11: Source: Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016.) ...............15 Figure 12: Source: Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016.) ...............16 Figure 13: Forecast of available ANC space by veteran population and time ............................16 Figure 14: Key data for ANC expansion efforts (as of 2 Feb 2017)............................................20 Figure 15: Map of ANC with potential adjacent land expansion opportunities highlighted..........21 Figure 16: “Conceptual rendering of an early planning concept considered for the development of the Southern Expansion site.” Rendering from the ANC Southern Expansion Project Planning Charrette Report, 2016 .................................................................22 Figure 17: Evaluating options for extending ANC as an active cemetery ...................................29 Figure 18: Options included in sample COA 1 ...........................................................................30 Figure 19: Options included in sample COA 2 ...........................................................................33 Figure 20: Report Planning Process..........................................................................................37 Figure 21: History of eligibility changes at ANC ....................................................................... D-1 Figure 22: Screenshot of ANC Cemetery Planning (Capacity Modeling) Tool ......................... F-1 Figure 23: Definitions of options for extending ANC as an active cemetery ............................. H-1 Figure 24: Options included in sample COA 1 .......................................................................... I-1 Figure 25: Major phases, activities, and timeframes for sample COA 1 .................................... I-2 Figure 26: Options included in sample COA 2 .......................................................................... I-2 Figure 27: Major phases, activities, and timeframes for sample COA 2 .................................... I-2 iii The Mission of Arlington National Cemetery: “On behalf of the American people, lay to rest those who have served our Nation with dignity and honor, treating their families with respect and compassion, and connecting guests to the rich tapestry of the Cemetery’s living history, while maintaining these hallowed grounds befitting the sacrifice of all those who rest here in quiet repose.” 1 1 Army National Cemeteries Program Campaign Plan 2012. iv Executive Summary This report responds to Public Law 114-158 which directs that: “Not later than 180 days after the date of the enactment of this Act, the Secretary of the Army shall submit to the Committees on Veterans’ Affairs and the Committees on Armed Services of the House of Representatives and the Senate a report on the interment and inurnment capacity of Arlington National Cemetery, including— (1) the estimated date that the Secretary determines the cemetery will reach maximum interment and inurnment capacity; and (2) in light of the unique and iconic meaning of the cemetery to the United States, recommendations for legislative actions and nonlegislative options that the Secretary determines necessary to ensure that the maximum interment and inurnment capacity of the cemetery is not reached until well into the future, including such actions and options with respect to— (A) redefining eligibility criteria for interment and inurnment in the cemetery; and (B) considerations for additional expansion opportunities beyond the current boundaries of the cemetery.” 2 As the law indicates, Arlington National Cemetery (ANC) is at a crossroads. ANC honors our country’s rich history and generations of men and women willing to sacrifice their lives for our ideals. During its 152 year history, more than 400,000 people have been honorably interred or inurned at the cemetery, including heroes from every major American conflict. In particular, ANC has long been known as a hallowed burial ground for Service members who are killed in action and recipients of qualifying awards such as the Medal of Honor. ANC’s reputation is so unique and iconic that the demand for ANC continues to far outweigh capability and capacity. Today, the cemetery conducts between 27 and 30 funeral services each weekday and approximately 10 services on Saturday. In fiscal year 2016, ANC served more than 7,100 active duty Service members, veterans, and their family members. When one thinks of ANC, it is natural to envision it stretching on forever—not only in physical space, but in time. The truth is that ANC is running out of space. At current projections, the cemetery 2 House Reports 4336, Pub. L. No. 114-158, 130 Stat. 394 (2016) A bugler plays at a funeral service at ANC A United States Marine Corps firing party stands at attention Crape myrtles and petunias bloom near the Mast of the Maine Memorial A flag bearer stands among snow covered markers v will reach capacity in approximately the early 2040s. 3 This estimated date is based on the assumption of maintaining current eligibility standards and the cemetery’s current physical footprint. ANC and those it exists to serve must therefore confront the reality that, at some point in the future, the cemetery will no longer continue to operate as it does today. Most veterans from the recent wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the War on Terrorism will not have the option to be buried at ANC. Even our heroes who are killed in action or those who have earned the Medal of Honor will not be buried at ANC within approximately three decades due to the lack of space. What is our country’s vision for Arlington National Cemetery? How can we truly honor its legacy and preserve the cemetery as a unique cultural icon for future generations? If the American people wish to preserve it as an active burial ground, we must act quickly and decisively to shape the future direction. Every day and year that passes without a decision brings the cemetery closer to capacity. Extending ANC as an active cemetery well into the future (interpreted in this report as 150 years or more) requires difficult decisions or resource intensive actions. There are three key options to evaluate: • Option 1: Redefining eligibility criteria for interment and inurnment at ANC (requested by Public Law 114-158). 4 • Option 2: Considerations for additional expansion opportunities beyond current boundaries of the Cemetery (requested by Public Law 114-158). • Option 3: Other alternative approaches. Each option involves more complexity than might initially appear. Within each of the areas of study required by the law—eligibility and expansion—there are multiple methods that could achieve the end-state. Some methods would be successful at reaching the endstate independently, while others will need to be combined with other methods or solutions. While this report neither implies nor makes a decision at this time, it covers each of these options—and the possible solutions within—and provides a framework and criteria with which to evaluate them. There are no easy solutions, and each one carries significant trade-offs. As this report outlines, these options are complex and will require additional time to fully assess and consider the feedback and views of the stakeholders. Regarding Option 1, eligibility criteria for burial at ANC has changed at least fourteen times in the past fifteen decades, but there has not been a significant change since 1980. There are several options available to extend the life of the cemetery from the eligibility perspective. Any such change will require a thoughtful approach to ensure that any veterans who might be impacted by the change are aware of the challenges ANC faces in the near future, as well as the robust options available to them in other veteran cemeteries around the United States. 3 Center for Army Analysis. (2016). Arlington National Cemetery Planning Tool [Data Set and Modeling Tool]. 4 The Secretary of the Army, with the approval of the Secretary of Defense, shall determine eligibility for interment or inurnment in the Cemeteries. 10 USC 4722 (a)(1). vi Regarding Option 2, the recent 27 acre development of the cemetery, the Millennium Project, is the first expansion of the cemetery’s geographic footprint since 1976 at a budgeted cost of $81.7M. The Millennium Project will increase the cemetery’s capacity by an estimated 27,282 spaces. Although there are 448 acres of Federal land adjacent to the cemetery, there is currently only one additional expansion under consideration, the proposed Southern Expansion Project, which would add approximately 38 acres for conversion to cemetery use. Assuming that the proposed Southern Expansion Project moves forward, the first interment there would likely not take place before 2023. The current estimated remaining development cost of the proposed Southern Expansion Project is approximately $274M. While not specifically required by Public Law 114-158, the Army examined other potential solutions. Option 3 includes alternative ideas for maximizing the current space within the cemetery’s geographic footprint, including the potential use of new burial techniques or increased use of above-ground inurnments in various architectural options. It also discusses some options external to ANC. Importantly, the most feasible, acceptable, and suitable course of action is likely a hybrid of multiple options. This report includes examples of hybrids that combine multiple options to provide unique possibilities to achieve the end state (see figures 1 and 2). To reiterate, these example courses of action are not intended to be recommendations, but examples that demonstrate how phasing multiple options over time can also achieve the desired end-state. Figure 1: Options included in sample COA 1 Fly-over of World War II era aircraft in honor of disabled American veterans A blanket of snow covers Arlington National Cemetery President-Elect Trump lays a wreath, alongside Vice President Elect-Pence, at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier vii Figure 2: Options included in sample COA 2 As the steward of this national shrine, the Army is committed to maintaining Arlington National Cemetery as an active cemetery and extending its legacy for as long as possible. The Army is not presently taking action on the contents of this report, but acknowledges that decisions about the cemetery’s future should be made as part of a national dialogue in concert with stakeholders including Congress; the Federal Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery (the Advisory Committee); veteran service organizations and military service organizations; the uniformed Services; and the United States public. Additionally, the Army believes that any expansions or changes to the cemetery must preserve the iconic nature and standards that the American people have come to expect of Arlington National Cemetery. This report lays out key information needed to address these questions, including historical context; capacity data and projections; potential options; sample courses of action and an analytical framework with which to evaluate them; and lastly an action plan to ultimately determine the future of Arlington National Cemetery. 1 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History Arlington National Cemetery (ANC) is an icon in our national consciousness. The cemetery is a hallowed shrine and active burial ground for our Nation’s heroes; a ceremonial space for the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and the Eternal Flame; and a living history that has evolved with our Nation since ANC was established during the Civil War over 150 years ago. Countless speeches, photographs, songs, and movies have depicted ANC over the decades and help to reinforce the symbolism of the cemetery within American culture and collective memory. American children learn about Arlington National Cemetery in school, with their impressions forever imprinted during field trips when they first glimpse the immensity of the rows of white headstones stretching to the horizon, a powerful symbol of patriotism, freedom, and the ultimate sacrifice. While this shared national consciousness binds us in our understanding of the cemetery, this cherished space also holds a deeply personal significance for many Americans. The cemetery is the final resting place of their loved ones, or perhaps they envision ANC as their own future place of rest. Whether attending a funeral service for a beloved family member, visiting the gravesite of a dear friend (either in person or online), or laying a wreath at the grave of a hero who died long ago, the cemetery takes on its own personal meaning for everyone. Because the cemetery is part of our national consciousness, how to preserve ANC for future generations is a question of national significance. Arlington National Cemetery is comprised of land that once belonged to George Washington Parke Custis, grandson of Martha Washington and step-grandson of George Washington. Custis spent his life commemorating Washington and built Arlington House on a hill overlooking the Potomac River as a memorial to the first president. In 1857, Custis willed the property to his daughter Mary Anna Randolph Custis, who married then United States Army Second Lieutenant Robert E. Lee in 1831. General Lee left Arlington House at the onset of the Civil War, giving way for the United States Army to occupy the property and build fortifications to defend the Nation’s capital. As casualties of the war began to mount, Brigadier General Montgomery C. Meigs, Quartermaster General of the United States Army, established a military cemetery on the grounds in May 1864. On May 13, 1864, Private William Christman, a Soldier of the United States Army 67th Many of our nation’s youth visit ANC on field trips or with their families An escort platoon accompanies a caisson during a funeral service Women in Military Service for America Memorial Arlington House today, formerly known as Lee Mansion 2 Pennsylvania Volunteer Infantry, was the first to be interred at the military cemetery. On June 15th of that year, Secretary of War Edwin Stanton issued an act to establish a 200 acre national cemetery on the Arlington House grounds. By the end of the war, the cemetery contained the remains of over 5,000 Service members. Today, the cemetery is the final resting place for more than 400,000 people. There are numerous monuments within the hallowed grounds of ANC, some with unique historical significance. The Civil War Unknown Monument, dedicated in 1866, was one of the first monuments erected at ANC. It serves as the final resting place for 2,111 Soldiers, likely from the Union and Confederacy, who died in the Civil War at the battle of Bull Run and the route to the Rappahannock. This monument was the first memorial at ANC dedicated to unidentified Soldiers who died in battle. Three years after the Civil War ended, Major General John A. Logan, the head of an organization of Union veterans called the Grand Army of the Republic, established “Decoration Day” in 1868. Decoration Day was started as a day for the Nation to decorate the graves of the war dead with flowers. The first large observance of Decoration Day was held that year at ANC when General and Mrs. Ulysses S. Grant presided over the initial ceremonies. Ever since 1868, a ceremony has been held at ANC at the official commencement of Decoration/Memorial Day. Decoration Day was expanded in the mid 1900s to honor those who have died in all American wars after World War I. In 1971, Memorial Day was declared a national holiday by an act of Congress, though it is still often called Decoration Day. 5 Today, as part of the ceremony, a small American flag is placed on each grave and the President customarily gives a speech honoring the contributions of the dead, and lays a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. Thousands of people attend the ceremony at ANC annually. 6 The growing importance of Decoration Day was a key factor that helped ANC gain national prominence and become the iconic place that it is today. 7 5 The sun sets as a sentinel patrols the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier Photo from the first Memorial Day at ANC Memorial Day remarks; reaganlibrary.archives.gov “The willingness of some to give their lives so that others might live never fails to evoke in us a sense of wonder and mystery. One gets that feeling here on this hallowed ground…” President Reagan May 31, 1982 United States Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Public Affairs, Memorial Day History (n.d.) Retrieved from http://www.va.gov/opa/speceven/memday/history.asp 6 History, 1868 Civil War Dead Honored on Decoration Day (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/civil-war-dead-honored-on-decoration-day 7 United States Department of Veterans Affairs, National Cemetery Administration. (2015). National Cemeteries Dates Established and First Burials [Fact Sheet]. Retrieved from http://www.cem.va.gov/docs/factsheets/establish.pdf. 3 In the years following World War I, Congress approved the entombment of an unidentified United States Soldier from the Great War in the plaza of the new Memorial Amphitheater. An unknown United States Soldier was selected in October 1921 from a cemetery in France. On November 11, 1921, the third anniversary of the end of World War I, President Warren G. Harding officiated the interment ceremony for the Unknown Soldier at the Memorial Amphitheater at ANC. Unknowns from World War II, Korea, and Vietnam were later interred to the west of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. However, the remains of the Vietnam Unknown were exhumed in 1998 and subsequently identified. The crypt that contained the remains of the Vietnam Unknown has remained vacant, and was rededicated to all those missing in action and prisoners of war of the Vietnam conflict. Sentinels guard the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. Tomb Guards, all volunteers, are Soldiers of the elite 3rd United States Infantry Regiment (called The Old Guard). Among the distinguished individuals buried at ANC are two United States presidents: William Howard Taft, who died in 1930, and President John F. Kennedy, who was assassinated on November 22, 1963. The nationally televised funeral procession and interment of President Kennedy at ANC became a turning point in the cemetery’s history, as visitors increased from approximately two million persons annually in 1962 to more than seven million during the 12 months following President Kennedy’s death. The burial plot of President Kennedy and his family remains one of the most visited sites at ANC to this day. In 1948, following World War II, eligibility for burial in ANC expanded for the first time from (with a few exceptions) only those killed in action and other active duty deaths to any veterans with active duty service and an honorable discharge. As a result of this and several other factors, including the burial of President Kennedy, the war in Vietnam, and a growing veteran population, ANC became one of the most hallowed final resting places for our national heroes. In fact, ANC became so desirable that it nearly reached capacity in the late 1960s. The decision was quickly made—within 2 years of the cemetery closing—to limit eligibility so that ANC could continue honoring our veterans. 8 The 1967 changes to eligibility criteria restricted burial at ANC to only those Service members killed in action and who died on active duty, retirees, and Medal of Honor recipients (later expanded to 8 President Kennedy at Arlington (jfklibrary.org) “…these memories, sad and proud, these quiet grounds, this cemetery and others like it all around the world, remind us with pride of our obligation and our opportunity…and to the dead here in this cemetery, we say ‘they are the race – they are the race immortal.’” President Kennedy, November 11, 1961 (va.gov) The Eternal Flame at President Kennedy's gravesite The sun rises on a misty morning at ANC The Secretary of Defense, McNamara, Robert S. (1966). MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT. [Memorandum]. Washington, DC: Department of Defense 4 include recipients of the Distinguished Service Cross, Silver Star, Distinguished Service Medal and the Purple Heart). While these changes did significantly reduce interments, they also made ANC even more desirable among those veterans who remained eligible. The renewed interest in ANC further contributed to making it a special place in the hearts of the American public. Congress recognized ANC’s unique and iconic stature among national cemeteries when passing the National Cemeteries Act of 1973 (Public Law 93-43). This law transferred from the Secretary of the Army to the Administrator of the Veterans Affairs Administration, jurisdiction and responsibility for all national cemeteries except ANC and the United States Soldiers’ and Airmen’s Home (SAHNC) in Washington, DC. 9 The motivation behind this change was to preserve ANC’s strict eligibility standards. According to the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), this law “reaffirmed that ANC and SAHNC should be excluded from the VA National Cemetery System (NCS), and that a more restrictive eligibility criteria should continue at ANC.” 10 Figure 3: Significant eligibility changes based on veteran status ANC did not start out as the iconic symbol that it is today; rather, the cemetery evolved over its 150 year history. ANC began as one of over 60 cemeteries created for those who died in the Civil War. A practical necessity to manage the unprecedented number of casualties during the war, the cemeteries were created to ensure proper burial for Service 9 National Cemeteries Act of 1973, Pub. L. No. 93-43, 72 Stat. 1117 (1973) United States Department of Veterans Affairs National Cemetery Administration. (2015). History and Development of the National Cemetery Administration [Fact Sheet]. Retrieved from http://www.cem.va.gov/cem/docs/factsheets/history.pdf 10 5 members whose families could not afford to bring the remains of their fallen loved ones home. Over time ANC grew to become unique among our national cemeteries and landmarks. Its iconic landscape of neatly lined white markers stretching across the rolling hillsides serves as a tribute to the service and sacrifice of every individual laid to rest within the hallowed grounds. Designated as an arboretum, ANC’s green hills are dotted with approximately 8,400 trees, many hundreds of years in age. 11 The grounds provide a sense of beauty and peace with an integrated landscape design of immaculate lawns and flowers. It is a serene place for military families and our Nation to mourn and honor their memories of loved ones, and for guests to explore. ANC has a distinctive public outreach mission, serving as one of the most visited tourist sites in the Washington, DC area. ANC welcomes an average of 11,000 visitors daily (34 million annually) and averages approximately 3,000 official ceremonies every year, including those for heads of state, schools, scouting troops, veteran groups, and Honor Flights. In addition, approximately 5,000 visitors attend major annual services for National Memorial Day and Veterans Day observances. 12 From the soldiers of The Old Guard stepping in solemn vigilance before the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, to the gravesites of war heroes and presidents, to the funerals for our veterans and families of ongoing conflicts and wars long past, the acres of neatly lined white markers serve as a vivid remembrance of the price many have paid to keep our Nation safe and free. 13 The remainder of this report lays out the impact and implications of various options to extend the cemetery’s capacity, including eligibility and expansion options. 11 Army National Cemeteries Program Campaign Plan 2012. ibid 13 ibid 12 6 Historical Timeline of Arlington National Cemetery Legend Key events that helped make Arlington iconic 7 2. Current Interment and Inurnment Capacity of Arlington National Cemetery In Public Law 114-158, Congress directed that the Secretary of the Army provide “the estimated date that the Secretary determines the cemetery will reach maximum interment and inurnment capacity.” 14 ANC’s interment and inurnment capacity is determined primarily by the following two factors: space, which involves the Cemetery’s physical footprint and acreage; and the eligible veteran population. Without additional physical expansions or changes to eligibility, Arlington National Cemetery is projected to reach maximum capacity in approximately the early 2040s. 15 This means that without any changes, ANC will reach capacity within roughly 25 years, and most veterans from the recent wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the War on Terrorism will not have the opportunity to be buried at ANC. This estimated date is based on the assumption of maintaining existing eligibility policies as well as the current physical footprint of ANC, with the addition of the new space provided by the Millennium Project. Section 2 discusses these two key factors to further clarify the cemetery’s current capacity. Figure 4: Projected capacity of first interments at ANC under current space and eligibility conditions ANC partnered with the Center for Army Analysis (CAA), to develop these projections. At ANC’s request, CAA developed the first version of a model in 2011 to forecast the remaining capacity for first interments at ANC. The model, which has been refined significantly over time and was most recently updated in 2016, allows CAA and ANC analysts to adjust different variables. For example, analysts can adjust the amount of 14 House Report 4336, Pub. L. No. 114-158, 130 Stat. 394 (2016) Center for Army Analysis. (2016). Arlington National Cemetery Planning Tool [Data Set and Modeling Tool]. 15 8 spaces available; eligibility criteria; operational factors; and burial type (in-ground interment/inurnment or above-ground inurnment), among others. The tool then projects the approximate year that ANC will reach capacity. This model pulls data from two key sources: ANC’s Interment Services System (ISS), which provides data about previous and scheduled interments/inurnments at ANC; and the Veteran Population Projection Model 2014 from the VA, which provides data regarding the veteran population and demographics. The model is an important tool for making data-driven decisions about ANC’s future, but is important to remember that it is only a model and projections should be considered as approximate based on the data available. Predictive modeling cannot account for unexpected high casualty rates, which could impact the projected timeframes. ANC and CAA will continue to refine the tool over time as additional options are discussed. For a screenshot of the CAA Capacity Modeling Tool, see appendix F. 2.1 The Impact of Space on Arlington National Cemetery’s Capacity The first major factor that impacts ANC’s capacity is its physical space. As of November 14, 2016, ANC had 78,901 spaces remaining for first interments—with that number decreasing daily. This includes 56,150 spaces for in-ground interment and inurnment and 19,751 spaces available for above-ground inurnment. Currently, ANC is finishing a major cemetery expansion effort, called the Millennium Project (shaded gold in the upper left of Figure 5). This project is near completion and will make an additional 27 acres operationally available to ANC. The Millennium Project site began construction in 2014 and has an estimated capacity of 27,282 spaces— 10,882 spaces for ground burial and 16,400 spaces for aboveground inurnment. Millennium Project space is expected to be available for services in summer 2017. Figure 5: Map of ANC depicting space for the Millennium Project (gold) and the proposed Southern Expansion Project (blue), 2015 Another expansion effort is in the planning stages. This effort, called the proposed Southern Expansion Project (shaded blue on the bottom of figure 5), includes a collection of three separate parcels of land totaling approximately 38 acres located at the southern boundary of ANC. The proposed Southern Expansion Project and the 9 Millennium Project combined represent the largest expansion of ANC’s geographic footprint in the last three decades. However, the proposed Southern Expansion Project is not included in current capacity projections for ANC as it is pending funding and resolution of land acquisition between Arlington County and the Commonwealth of Virginia. Prior to this, the last major geographic expansion occurred in 1976 when the cemetery’s footprint expanded to lands east of Eisenhower Drive formerly occupied by old Fort Myer. 16 However, the cemetery’s boundaries have shifted dozens of times in the past fifteen decades, so there is precedence for expansion, which is discussed in Section 3. The above-ground inurnment of cremated remains has also significantly increased the capacity of the cemetery without changing the geographic footprint. Overall, a growing number of United States veterans are selecting cremation rather than casketed burials, a trend which is discussed further in Section 2.2. At ANC, veterans who qualify for inground burial and elect to be cremated have the option of in-ground inurnment in a gravesite, or above-ground inurnment in a columbarium or niche wall. ANC opened its first columbaria in 1980 to accommodate these evolving veteran burial preferences and maximize space. This option is currently extended to any veteran with an honorable discharge. The construction of Columbarium Court 9, completed in 2013, contributed to ANC’s capacity by adding 20,292 niches. 17 Recently, ANC started building niche walls, which offer inurnment opportunities within walls on the perimeters of the cemetery. These options all show the potential to incorporate new designs and ideas to utilize existing space, while also honoring changing burial preferences and without expanding ANC’s footprint. Section 3 discusses this idea further under Option 3A, “Other Alternatives— Reimagining New Ways to Use Existing Space.” 2.2 The Impact of Eligibility and Veteran Demand on Arlington National Cemetery’s Capacity The second key factor that impacts ANC’s capacity is the veteran decedent population, which is shaped primarily by eligibility criteria for interment and inurnment at ANC, as well as veteran preferences. Figure 6 shows the total yearly interments at ANC from 2001 to 2015. There have been an average of nearly 7,000 services per year at ANC since 2004. 18 ANC conducts between 27 and 30 funeral services per weekday, with up to 10 funeral services on Saturdays for those not requiring military honors. This number is driven partly by ANC’s operational capacity, but also by the imperative to provide a private and dignified service for each veteran or family member laid to rest. Out of respect, ANC strives to make each service feel like the only one occurring that day. Additionally, ANC must ensure proper staffing, infrastructure, and route sequencing on the cemetery’s roads 16 Real Property Master Plan 2013, Arlington National Cemetery 2014 Reprint (December 22, 2014). Army National Cemeteries Program Campaign Plan 2012. 18 CAA. (2015, March). Arlington National Cemetery – Southern Expansion Project (ANC-SEP) In Progress Review. Presented at the Federal Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery. 17 10 for the honor guards, caissons, and other logistical elements associated with the services. The cemetery’s limited physical space thus impacts its operational capacity. For these reasons, ANC is only able to serve between 0.7 and 1.0 percent of the total national veteran decedent population per year. Figure 6: Source: Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016). Veteran demand is directly influenced by ANC’s eligibility criteria, which differ from the criteria for the national cemeteries maintained by the VA National Cemetery Administration (NCA). Appendix E provides a simplified breakdown of the differences between some of the most common eligibility criteria at ANC and the VA national cemeteries. There are numerous details, exceptions, and additional qualifications for interment in both places, and this list is not exhaustive. For a detailed breakdown of eligibility criteria, please visit the ANC and VA websites, referenced in appendix E. In some ways ANC’s criteria is more restrictive than the VA’s, and in others it is less strict. The VA has the same criteria for both interment and inurnment, with eligibility for any active duty service member or veteran discharged under conditions other than dishonorable with at least 24 months of continuous service (starting in 1980 for enlisted and 1981 for officers). In contrast, ANC differentiates between criteria for in-ground and above-ground eligibility. ANC’s criteria for in-ground interment and inurnment is more restrictive than the VA’s, allowing only Service members killed in action, who die on active duty, retirees, and those with qualifying awards (such as the Medal of Honor, Silver Star, and Purple Heart, among others). On the other hand, ANC is less restrictive than the VA for above-ground inurnment. Any veteran with an honorable discharge and at least one day of active duty service (not for training) is eligible for above-ground inurnment at ANC. Any service member qualified for in-ground burial may alternatively choose above-ground inurnment at ANC. Both ANC and the VA also permit the interment of spouses and eligible dependents, with some variations in eligibility. At ANC, the veteran and his or her spouse and/or qualifying dependents are laid to rest in the same gravesite or niche. In consideration of this, burial plots and niches are 11 specifically designed to accommodate multiple decedents. This means that, when evaluating the cemetery’s space and capacity, the number of first interments/inurnments is the most appropriate factor to consider. The first internment/inurnment refers to the first member of the family laid to rest, which could be the veteran or his or her loved one. Any subsequent decedents are laid to rest in the same gravesite/niche. Roughly two thirds of ANC’s funeral services per year are for first interments/inurnments, which accounts for approximately 4,000 out of the roughly 7,000 services annually. Overall, veteran interments have been increasing since 2000, according to the VA NCA. This increase is due in large part to the aging population of veterans from the babyboomer generation. As depicted in figure 7, the NCA went from servicing just over 57,000 veterans in 2000 to over 81,000 in 2013. 19 This population increase will likely also increase demand for services at ANC over the next several decades. # OF INTERMENTS/INURNMENTS Total Veteran Interments/Inurnments at National Cemeteries (2000-2014) Casket Cremain 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - YEAR Figure 7: Source: Department of Veterans Affairs, National Cemetery Administration, Policy and Planning Service. (2015). National Cemetery Administration Summary of Veteran Interments: FY2000 to FY2014 [Data Set]. Furthermore, VA data also shows that veterans’ burial preferences have changed. While only 36 percent of veterans laid to rest in national cemeteries chose to be cremated in 2000, that percentage increased by 16 percent over the next 13 years, with 52 percent selecting cremation in 2013. 20 This means that by 2013, over half of the veteran population laid to rest in VA cemeteries preferred cremation. This trend could impact veterans’ future preferences at ANC, potentially driving the need for additional space or new designs for columbaria and other structures. However, it is over-simplistic to assume that veterans’ increasing preferences for cremation will necessarily save space. As of 19 Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Policy and Planning, Office of the Actuary. (2015). Veteran Population Model 2014. Retrieved from http://www.va.gov/vetdata/docs/Demographics/New_Vetpop_Model/VetPop2014Document.pdf 20 Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Policy and Planning, Office of the Actuary. (2015). Veteran Population Model 2014. Retrieved from http://www.va.gov/vetdata/docs/Demographics/New_Vetpop_Model/VetPop2014Document.pdf 12 2016, out of the approximately 7,000 interments/inurnments scheduled on average per year at ANC, roughly 30 percent are casketed and 70 percent are cremated. Approximately 40 percent of these interments/inurnments are above-ground (in columbaria or niche walls) and 60 percent are in-ground burials. This means that currently a large percentage of those opting for cremation still prefer in-ground inurnment, if they are eligible. In the future, if burial preferences continue to favor cremation, ANC should evaluate the impact of different space configurations and gravesite sizes on the cemetery’s capacity. When determining the future of Arlington National Cemetery and the best way to honor our Nation’s heroes, the two factors of ANC’s physical space and the eligible veteran population are critical to the discussion. ANC is projected to reach maximum burial capacity in less than 30 years, without changes to one or both of these factors. Section 3 discusses potential options for preserving the cemetery’s capacity well into the future. 3. Shaping the Future: Potential Options and Action Plan 3.1 Framework for Evaluating Options ANC’s future is a question of national significance that resonates deeply with a multitude of different stakeholder groups. This perspective has been affirmed through ANC’s recent stakeholder engagements (see appendix G). Diverse perspectives and voices add layers of complexity to the decision, including those of veterans and their family members; veterans’ groups; the uniformed Services; Congress; and the United States public. For example, the Advisory Committee and many other stakeholders agree that preserving ANC as an active cemetery is important, especially for those killed in action and recipients of awards like the Medal of Honor. Keeping ANC an active cemetery honors our war heroes and maintains and preserves it as a living part of American culture. Yet, based on ongoing discussion, some stakeholders have different ideas about the best way to achieve these goals. Shaping ANC’s future must be a process that honors these various perspectives, while also acknowledging the urgency of making swift and proactive decisions. Unfortunately, there are no easy answers or quick fixes. Resolution of this issue will require difficult dialogue, choices, actions, and national fortitude. Delaying a decision reduces the cemetery’s lifespan due to the numerous services held each day. This section provides an analytical framework and set of options for evaluating this issue, as well as an action plan for making a decision. This is a complex, multi-dimensional issue, and as such, this report does not lay out a specific solution. Rather, as requested by Public Law 114-158, it provides a set of legislative actions and non-legislative options that could help to extend the capacity of ANC well into the future. Some of these actions and options, presented in figure 8, might be used in combination to produce different outcomes. The most effective course of action could be a hybrid of multiple options introduced over time. 13 Figure 8: Table of options (for detailed descriptions see appendix H) When evaluating potential options, there are various criteria that factor into the decision, outlined in figure 9. Each of the columns in figure 9 represents criteria to be considered. Some of these naturally compete against each other, while others are complementary. This report evaluates how well each of the options depicted in figure 8 meets these various criteria (Section 3.3 discusses this analysis). Figure 9: Description of criteria 14 Figure 10 depicts the general methodology that ANC applied to determine feasible, acceptable, and suitable courses of action (COAs) that achieve the end-state required by Public Law 114-158. First, ANC began with the vision defined in Public Law 114-158 and then generated a set of possible options to achieve it. ANC and the Army then defined and validated the set of criteria proposed in this report, and worked with stakeholders to analyze the options using those criteria. Finally, ANC developed a set of two sample COAs which serve as a theoretical exercise to evaluate the potential impacts of two example combinations of options. This process and methodology are applied throughout the remainder of this report. In the future, ANC can use this same framework as a blueprint for evaluating additional options and new COAs that may arise. The COAs presented here are theoretical and do not represent a real decision point or plan of action. Figure 10: Methodology for sample COA development 3.2 Options to Explore: Legislative Actions and Non-Legislative Options that Ensure Arlington National Cemetery Does Not Reach Capacity Until Well into the Future This section discusses each of the three broad categories of options and how well they meet the criteria. 3.2.1 Option 1: Redefining eligibility criteria for interment and inurnment at Arlington National Cemetery. Mentioned in Public Law 114-158, one of the most significant factors that impacts ANC’s future capacity is eligibility policy. 21 Should the way-ahead for ANC include a change to eligibility policy, an ongoing national dialogue and the support of Congress will be vital. This option includes a number of potential scenarios for changing eligibility. It is important to note that many potential changes to eligibility would mean that some veterans who are 21 The Secretary of the Army, with the approval of the Secretary of Defense, shall determine eligibility for interment or inurnment in the Cemeteries. 10 USC 4722 (a)(1). 15 currently eligible will become ineligible for burial at ANC and must choose other burial options. NCA and other national or State veterans’ cemeteries offer burial services to veterans at the highest standards and provide highly dignified burials and perpetual care of the gravesites. These cemeteries exist to meet the needs of the veteran population and will continue to be a valued option for veterans and their families at their time of need. Section 2.2 discusses ANC’s current eligibility criteria. Figure 11 (in-ground) and figure 12 (above-ground) show the applicable eligibility category for veterans and dependents interred at ANC from calendar year 2004-2015. 22 * * Increase attributed to more effective data collection and metric analysis by ANC Figure 11: Source: Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016.) As depicted in figures 11-12, approximately 7,000 people were honorably interred or inurned annually at ANC from 2004 to 2015. Each year this included an average of 200 Service members who died on active duty, 240 veterans with qualifying awards (decorated veterans), approximately 4,000 retirees, and other veterans with honorable service and at least one day of active duty service. The other approximately 2,500 decedents were spouses, eligible dependents, or other qualifying groups. *Other – Decedents classified as Eligible Previous CFR, Disability (Legacy), POW, Same Grave Exception, Exception per the Secretary of the Army, Public Office Officials – Applies to figures 11-12 22 Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016). 16 * Increase attributed to more effective data collection and metric analysis by ANC Figure 12: Source: Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016.) As shown in figure 13, the retired veteran population is currently the most common category for ground burial at ANC, and includes retirees with qualifying awards. The percentage of veteran decedents with qualifying awards at ANC is relatively small and fluctuates between 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent of the annual national veteran decedent With Southern Expansion—Early. 2050s Without Southern Expansion—Early 2040s Figure 13: Forecast of available ANC space by veteran population and time 17 population. 23 The two largest groups of veterans impacting the rate of burials at ANC are veterans with an honorable discharge and at least one day of active duty service (not for training), and retirees. While honorably discharged veterans are limited to inurnment, retirees may choose either option as they desire. These two populations make up the majority of services at ANC. No options achieve the end-state of preserving ANC well into the future—required in Public Law 114-158—while also including these two groups without a change to current eligibility policy. Eligibility policy changes that include only one of these groups merely delay the closing of the cemetery until later this century. On the other hand, options that limit burials to only those most sacred of veterans’ groups—those who have died in service and/or received the highest awards—do achieve this end-state. Referencing the same chart, we find that restricting eligibility to those populations of the most highly revered veterans allows the cemetery to remain open well into the future—even without expansion of the cemetery’s geographic footprint. There is a precedent for policy changes that limit eligibility in such a way, most notably with the decision of Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara in the late 1960s. 24 The Army and ANC acknowledge that this is an extremely difficult and deeply personal matter for many veterans; however tough decisions are required if the Nation desires to keep ANC active well into the future. This section discusses the different eligibility scenarios and options available. 3.2.1.1 Option 1A—(non-legislative option): Maintaining current eligibility. The first option is to maintain current eligibility standards. However, as discussed throughout this report, the status quo is not a viable option if the goal is to extend ANC as an active cemetery well into the future. While this option does avoid disenfranchising some veterans’ groups, trend analysis shows that ANC is projected to reach capacity in the early 2040s without significant expansion or a change in eligibility policy. 25 Maintaining current eligibility does not meet the objectives defined in Public Law 114-158. 3.2.1.2 Option 1B—(non-legislative option): Adopting the Department of Veterans Affairs requirement for a 24 month active duty service minimum. Based on analysis of ISS data from March 2016, few veterans are laid to rest at ANC who do not also meet the basic VA eligibility requirement for time in service. Adopting this option would result in approximately 200 less services annually—or about 2 weeks of longevity of the cemetery for each year after this policy is enacted. Additionally, this option would also slightly shorten wait times for services at the cemetery for the remaining eligible population. This option alone does not achieve the end-state but could be adopted in combination with other options. 23 Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016). The Secretary of Defense, McNamara, Robert S. (1966). MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT. [Memorandum]. Washington, DC: Department of Defense. 25 Center for Army Analysis. (2016). Arlington National Cemetery Planning Tool [Data Set and Modeling Tool]. 24 18 3.2.1.3 Option 1C—(non-legislative option): Restrict eligibility criteria to retirement from the armed Services at certain lengths of service. Another option is to restrict eligibility to retirees with certain length of service (i.e., 25 to 30 years, etc.) Service members would still be eligible if they are killed in action, die on active duty, and/or receive qualifying awards, regardless of their length of service. This option would likely achieve the objective of extending ANC’s time as an active cemetery well into the future (depending on what the final decision is for length of service). However, it will exclude a large number of veterans who are currently eligible. Furthermore, restricting eligibility to those with specific lengths of service would likely disenfranchise certain veterans’ groups and be viewed negatively by the public—based on feedback received from active duty personnel, veterans, and military service organizations (MSOs) that ANC consulted in this analysis process. 3.2.1.4 Option 1D—(non-legislative option): Changing eligibility criteria for only those Service members killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or recipients of qualifying awards (Medal of Honor, Silver Star, Distinguished Service Cross, or the Purple Heart). This option, as well as Options 1E and 1F, involves restricting eligibility significantly. Only those killed in action, those who die on active duty, or decedents with qualifying awards would be eligible for burial at ANC. Based on casualty figures from the most recent United States conflicts and rates of active duty deaths (approximately 200 per year selected burial at ANC from 2004 to 2015), this option is projected to lengthen the lifespan of the cemetery by more than two centuries if implemented today—even without further expansion of ANC’s geographical footprint. However, if our Nation experiences a largescale conflict in the future and higher numbers of Service members were killed in action, it would directly shorten the projection. Realistically, this change could take up to 5 to 10 years to plan and implement due to the lengthy policy and/or legal processes required, operational planning, and any grace periods granted to veterans. During this time the cemetery would continue to conduct services and consume space at the current rate. As a result, the cemetery would remain active only until the mid to late-2100s. This option would have a positive impact on capacity and does achieve the end goal of keeping ANC open will into the future. However, it would exclude the large population of retirees and honorably discharged veterans, some of whom may already envision being laid to rest at ANC. 3.2.1.5 Option 1E—(non-legislative option): Changing eligibility criteria for only those Service members killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or recipients of the Medal of Honor. 19 Option 1E, is a variation from Options 1D and 1F, which each seek to preserve ANC for some portion of the most revered of veteran populations. Option 1E differs from 1D in that it limits the criteria which would make a veteran eligible—establishing the Medal of Honor as the only qualifying award, in addition to remaining open for those Service members who are killed in action or who die on active duty. Even without physical expansion, this option would extend ANC’s capacity well into the future. However, it would exclude the vast majority of veterans, which is a point of concern for some stakeholders. As mentioned in Option 1D, ANC has served an average of approximately 200 Service members killed in action or on active duty per year in recent years. Less than 800 Service members have received the Medal of Honor since World War II. This population size is far less than the nearly 400,000 veterans who have received the other qualifying awards listed in Option 1D. So, by significantly restricting eligibility, this option would delay closure of the cemetery by roughly 150-200 years. It is important to note that most of those veterans—excepting those who have less than 24 months of service and the appropriate discharge—would retain their current eligibility for burial at VA cemeteries. The NCA has 135 national cemeteries across the United States which exist to serve this group and the rest of our qualified veteran population. While effective at expanding ANC’s longevity as an active cemetery, this option would have an immediate, dramatic impact on the number of interments at ANC. Potential impacts to cemetery operations and ANC’s iconic ceremonial nature would require evaluation. 3.2.1.6 Option 1F—(non-legislative option): Changing eligibility criteria for only those Service members killed in action and/or recipients of the Medal of Honor. The most restrictive eligibility option, Option 1F would allow only Service members killed in action and/or Medal of Honor recipients to be buried at ANC. This option is similar in benefits and risks to Option 1E. This option focuses the cemetery on the most sacred group of Service members: those who are killed in action and Medal of Honor awardees. As mentioned in Options 1D and 1E, these populations have been low based on casualty rates from recent conflicts and this option can be expected to result in delaying the closure of ANC for at least two centuries—unless our Nation experiences large scale conflict and higher numbers of Service members killed in action. 3.2.1.7 Option 1G—(non-legislative option): Changing eligibility for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment separately. Option 1G is a hybrid approach which would involve stricter criteria for in-ground burial, but leave eligibility for above-ground inurnment more open (though possibly still including some changes). For example, in-ground burial/inurnment could be restricted to those killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or recipients of qualifying awards, but the columbarium and niche walls could be open to retirees, or those with a certain length of 20 service. This option maintains inclusiveness for a larger group of veterans, while still preserving space for the most cherished populations of veterans. Of all the eligibility-based options, this option may be the most feasible, acceptable, and suitable. It not only achieves the objective of Public Law 114-158, but also meets many of the criteria in figure 9. This option does not create new capacity or expand the cemetery’s footprint in and of itself. However, it does ensure access to ANC for our most revered groups of veterans for many years to come while also ensuring that most or all currently eligible veterans remain eligible for above-ground inurnment until that capacity runs out. Under this option, ANC would remain active for ground burials for those most sacred groups of eligible veterans until the approximately the middle of the next century. All other groups of veterans would then remain eligible for above-ground inurnment. The risk associated with this option is that above-ground space—the columbarium and niche walls—would reach capacity far sooner than the remainder of the cemetery. In this case, niche or columbaria capacity would reach 100 percent in the late 2020s. While ANC could build additional space for above-ground inurnments, the cemetery would need to acquire additional land and carefully evaluate impacts to ANC’s iconic look and feel. The next section explores options to expand ANC’s physical space and geographic footprint. 3.2.2 Option 2: Considerations for additional expansion opportunities beyond current boundaries of the cemetery. The second option, to expand ANC’s current geographical footprint to provide more space, is mentioned in Public Law 114-158. Opportunities for expansion include State and local government, Federal Government, and privately owned properties adjacent to ANC. The majority of this land is developed and actively used by Government and private interests. This land consists of 448 acres of Government-owned land and 65 acres of privately owned land (see figure 15; all acreages listed are approximations). Figure 14: Key data for ANC expansion efforts (as of 2 Feb 2017) 21 The most recent expansion at ANC is the Millennium Expansion Project. Initial planning began in 2004 and the project will reach completion later this year— having taken 12 years to accomplish. This substantial project is predicted to extend the life of the cemetery by nearly 7 years given current eligibility policy. The next expansion ANC is pursuing is the proposed Southern Expansion Project (discussed also in paragraph 3.2.2.1). While the project is still in the planning stages, ANC estimates that the proposed project will extend the life of the cemetery for roughly 10 to 15 years. Expansion could be an effective option for increasing ANC’s future capacity, and this section describes several opportunities. However, acquiring land and completing the associated engineering Figure 15: Map of ANC with potential adjacent land expansion opportunities highlighted work to execute such options takes a substantial investment of time and resources (see figure 14), during which the cemetery moves closer to capacity each day. If a decision is made to expand ANC’s physical space, it is also important to consider any impacts on the iconic look and nature of the cemetery. 3.2.2.1 Option 2A—(legislative action): Solidify the land acquisition and fully fund the proposed Southern Expansion Project. The Army requests that Congress continue to support and fully fund the proposed Southern Expansion Project. Development of the proposed project site is the subject of ongoing negotiations, planning, and design. This project has not yet received funding or full concurrence of all parties involved. The new property would expand the southern boundaries of the cemetery adding approximately 38 acres of land adjacent to the United States Air Force Memorial. ANC’s intent is to develop the property in a manner that 22 represents the best use of the land with consideration for maintaining the iconic look and feel of ANC while also seeking to gain maximum burial opportunities. 26 ANC estimates that this proposed expansion will provide 40,000 to 60,000 first interment burial opportunities. It is critical to note that this estimated space is not figured into the projections for the capacity and lifespan of the cemetery discussed in Section 2. With land agreements and funding for the proposed Southern Expansion Project, ANC’s capacity could extend into approximately the early 2050s, based on current projections and assumptions. Figure 16: “Conceptual rendering of an early planning concept considered for the development of the Southern Expansion site.” Rendering from the ANC Southern Expansion Project Planning Charrette Report, 2016 3.2.2.2 Option 2B—(legislative action): Supporting transfer of adjacent Federal lands to Arlington National Cemetery. There are 448 acres of Government-owned land adjacent to the cemetery, including land currently owned by the National Park Service, Joint Base Myer-Henderson Hall, and the Department of Defense. The transfer of some of this land would expand the cemetery’s physical footprint and extend capacity by creating roughly 1,200 burial opportunities per acre. For every 4 acres of land, ANC would gain roughly 1 year of longevity. As an example, if the Henderson Hall (25.32 acres) portion of Fort Myer were transitioned to ANC use, the closing of the cemetery would be delayed 7 years. This option is highly effective at meeting many of the criteria in figure 9. However, the cost of these options is also an important consideration. Historically, even relatively easy transfers of land (those parcels already belonging to the Government such as the land ANC is using for the Millennium Project) and the subsequent transition of the property to cemetery use have taken a decade or more and cost the Government tens of millions of dollars per year of extended cemetery life (see figure 14). Another consideration is that all Government land adjacent to the cemetery is currently developed and there is a cost associated with relocating the functions that reside in those locations. 26 Real Property Master Plan 2013, Arlington National Cemetery 2014 Reprint 23 There are different ideas for how this land should be utilized in the future. Regardless, preserving the iconic look and nature of the cemetery must be a foremost concern in any new space. The impact of roadways and other infrastructure, traffic from vehicles and aircraft, and the overall viewshed and vistas must be considered in evaluating land for future use by ANC. 3.2.2.3 Option 2C—(legislative action): Establishing a new Department of Defense national cemetery in a new location. ANC, as it operates today, cannot endure forever in its current space. Looking 100-200 years into the future, how and where will we honor our Nation’s heroes? Another option, which the Army recognizes would represent a significant change, is establishing a new Department of Defense-run national cemetery in another location. This would mean building a new cemetery in a suitable place that would offer the same burial honors as ANC. While it is impossible to recreate the aesthetic appeal and history of ANC, this new cemetery could grow to become iconic over time, in the same way that ANC has gradually evolved over the past 150 years. Establishing a new cemetery could take decades to plan and implement. Planning considerations would include the need to procure land and locate the cemetery near an installation that has active duty Service members from all five branches of the military assigned; establishing new funeral honors teams, chaplains, cemetery operations and support staff; and building appropriate facilities for families, visitors, and cemetery staff, as well as for the horses and equipment used in the ceremonies and cemetery operations. Further consideration might be given regarding whether this ANC-like cemetery is managed by the Department of the Army or the Department of Veterans Affairs. As it stands, ANC personnel count against Army force structure whereas those positions might be used to fill requirements for a warfighting headquarters if the cemetery was managed by another department. If this option is desirable, it would be necessary to begin planning in the near future. Operating ANC as an active burial ground for as long as possible would allow a phase of overlap and continuity while establishing the new space. However, if the foremost priority and objective of Public Law 114-158 is preserving ANC within its current geographic location in the Washington, DC area, then this option would be undesirable. 3.2.3 Option 3: Other alternative approaches. In addition to the options already described relating to eligibility criteria and opportunities for expansion, there may be other creative, if non-traditional, approaches to extend ANC’s time as an active cemetery. 3.2.3.1 Option 3A—(non-legislative option): Reimagining new ways to use existing space. Depending on the vision and priorities for ANC’s future, one option could include reimagining ways to use existing space more efficiently. For example, this could include the expansion of above-ground inurnment capacity with additional columbaria and/or 24 niche walls or other new structures and designs. As discussed in Section 2.2, burial preferences in the United States are changing, and an increasing number of veterans are choosing cremation. ANC could find new ways to incorporate additional options for inurnment that would preserve the iconic view and nature of the cemetery while also creating more burial opportunities. There is already a precedence for this option at ANC, as shown by the creation of the initial columbarium in 1980 and the more recent use of niche walls throughout the cemetery. Additionally, especially for new areas such as the Millennium Project space, ANC is evaluating the impact of different gravesite sizes and configurations on capacity, aesthetics, and operations. For example, in addition to the traditional 5 foot by 10 foot or larger gravesites, ANC is exploring the use of 3 foot by 8 foot gravesites for in-ground inurnment and interment. New techniques—such as green burials–could provide innovative alternatives for burials at ANC. One green burial option, whereby a tree is planted above an in-ground burial site, could add some capacity (although only a small amount) by utilizing the space where future trees are planned. This would preserve the beauty of the green landscape, and also offer a burial choice that would be attractive to some veterans. Some VA cemeteries also offer memorial gardens, beautifully designed spaces where families can scatter their loved ones’ ashes. The veteran or family member is then typically commemorated with their name on a wall or plaque. Lastly, as burial preferences and practices change, newer options are emerging. Techniques like resomation, an eco-friendly waterbased alternative to cremation, could open up new possibilities in the future. While these alternative approaches are non-traditional, Option 3A shows that there are other creative ideas in addition to expanding or changing eligibility criteria. To further explore this idea, the Army requests that Congress support and fund a study in partnership with the VA to analyze veterans’ future burial preferences at both ANC and VA cemeteries. 3.2.3.2 Summer flowers and plants grow outside Columbarium Court 5 Joint committal service for six veterans from all branches of the Armed Forces during the dedication of Columbarium Court 9 Niche wall with the Washington Monument in the distance Option 3B—(non-legislative option): Preserving a set number of spaces for decedents killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or with qualifying awards. In this option, ANC could preserve a pre-determined number of spaces for certain groups of Service members, namely those killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or with qualifying awards such as the Medal of Honor. Eligibility criteria for the rest of the spaces could remain the same, as well as ANC’s current geographic footprint. Alternatively, eligibility criteria and/or Level II Arboretum: Virginia State CoChampion Pin Oak located near the Memorial Amphitheater 25 physical space could also change. In either case, this option offers a hybrid approach by preserving ANC for our national heroes well into the future, without disenfranchising certain veterans’ groups. However, the trade-off is that ANC’s overall capacity and timeframe as an active cemetery would be shorter than the option for limiting eligibility criteria only to those Service members killed in action, who die on active duty, and with qualifying awards (Option 1D). Using recent averages of combat and active duty deaths and burial rates of those with qualifying awards, for each 1,000 burial spaces preserved, ANC would gain approximately 2 years of burials for those Service members who are killed in action, die on active duty, or with qualifying awards. For example, if ANC preserved 20,000 burial plots, the cemetery would remain open for these groups of decedents for approximately 40 years beyond the date that the cemetery would close for first interments otherwise. 3.2.3.3 Option 3C—(legislative action): Prohibiting the future use of Arlington National Cemetery space for the purpose of erecting monuments other than those memorials containing individual or group remains. Throughout ANC there are numerous memorials erected to commemorate specific groups of veterans. One type of memorial exists to honor situations where multiple Service members or individuals perished as a group, and their remains are interred there. Another type of memorial that can be found at ANC is the individual memorial marker. Public Law 112-154 instructed ANC to use space not suitable for human remains to memorialize those Service members whose remains were never recovered due to being lost at sea, missing in action, or other causes. 27 ANC currently has several sections of the cemetery dedicated to this purpose—and expects to continue to find small portions of land suitable for this honorable purpose. In contrast, there are monuments that do not contain any remains, and exist specifically to represent a particular group. This collection of monuments does occupy space in the hallowed grounds which could otherwise become the final resting place or memorial marker for our war heroes. These types of monuments could be erected in other places throughout our Nation’s capital and still honor those groups in a meaningful way. ANC would request that Congress prohibit the placement of any monument on ANC grounds for any group or individual which does not commemorate remains and is not considered to be a memorial gravesite for a service member. This option alone would not solve the existing dilemma, but would help preserve the space for the future and for its intended sacred purpose, just as the Commemorative Works Act of 1986 has done for the core of our historic capital city. 28 27 28 House Reports 1627, Pub. L. No. 112-154, 126 Stat. 1165 (2012) House Reports 4531, Pub. L. No. 99-625, (1986) 26 3.2.3.4 Option 3D—(legislative action): Partnering with Congress and the Department of Veterans Affairs to enhance the Department of Veterans Affairs services. There are also options that are external to ANC, but which could meet the intent of providing desirable choices for our veterans in other places. This view advocates that perhaps the country would benefit from more than just an “All Arlington Solution.” For example, Congress and the Army could partner with the VA to enhance the level of service at VA funerals, making them more like the ceremonies at ANC. While VA cemeteries have a similar iconic look as ANC, with the orderly rows of white headstones and columbaria, one of the major differences is that ANC offers services such as full military honors. These services, currently offered at ANC for those eligible, include a bugler; escort platoon; military band; caisson; and riderless (Caparisoned) horse and cannon or gun salute for some officers. By providing the appropriate level of additional funding and resources for the VA, the Nation could extend these services at VA cemeteries as well, and standardize the level of service afforded to all veterans across the country. While it would require garnering the view of the VA, time, careful planning, and significant resources, it may be worth studying other alternative ways of honoring our veterans external to ANC. The Army recognizes that there could be other creative ideas to address the future of Arlington National Cemetery, and the Army and Congress should solicit feedback from the various stakeholder groups and the public. This process may illuminate new ideas to honor the iconic nature of ANC in an innovative and respectful way. 27 3.3 Evaluating the Options and Courses of Action 3.3.1 Key findings and take-aways regarding the options for extending Arlington National Cemetery as an active cemetery The options in this report cover a wide range of possibilities. Using the framework discussed in Section 3.1, it is clear that there are no options that provide an easy decision; each has benefits and risks. The criteria are subjective and stakeholders will prioritize them differently. Figure 17 provides a summary evaluation of each of the options discussed against the criteria: Overall, this evaluation yields several general conclusions: 1. In order to significantly extend ANC’s capacity well into the future, changes to either eligibility criteria and/or expansion of the cemetery’s geographic footprint are required. 2. The most effective course of action is likely a hybrid solution with a combination of different options. 3. This decision must be a national dialogue and stakeholder feedback will be critical to making the best decision for the country. 4. Expansion: In order to increase capacity, the Secretary of the Army and ANC request funding and approval for the proposed Southern Expansion Project, as well as consideration of future expansion into adjacent Federal lands. It is the intention of the Army to develop any additional parcels in a manner consistent with the iconic look and feel of ANC today. 5. Eligibility: Any choice to change eligibility at ANC is difficult and personal for many veterans. The Army and ANC do not desire to disenfranchise or adversely harm any particular group of veterans. At the same time, difficult decisions and bold choices are required if the Nation wishes to extend ANC as an active burial ground well into the future. The Secretary of the Army respectfully requests that the Secretary of Defense and Congress support the Army as difficult eligibility decisions are debated. 6. Other Alternatives: There may be other viable and acceptable alternatives that could be combined with eligibility changes and/or expansion. For example, ANC could explore new approaches for using existing space, which also accommodates changing burial preferences. As stated earlier, this is a highly complex issue and there are no easy options. Each one presents potential benefits, risks, and trade-offs. While some options can be implemented relatively quickly, others will take far longer. Some options will result in little public dialogue, while others will likely involve strong and emotional feedback from the United States public about how we see our iconic national cemetery evolving into the future. In terms of efficacy, there are some options that, individually, would achieve the objective of Public Law 114-158, yet others would only have a slight impact on the overall longevity of the cemetery. Most notably, the options that would have the greatest impact 28 on extending ANC’s longevity on their own are also likely to be the most difficult in terms of public opinion. 3.3.2 Evaluating potential courses of action for the future of Arlington National Cemetery As discussed above, the most feasible, acceptable, and suitable solution is likely a combination of several options into a COA that both gains the support of the Nation and also achieves the objective of preserving ANC as an active, iconic shrine for all to honor, remember, and explore the devotion of our war heroes to a greater cause. While a number of different combinations of options could achieve the objective, this report discusses two sample courses of action. While they are only meant to be examples, these two sample COAs are achievable. The intent of this section is to provide a method, framework, and ideas for evaluating these two sample COAs, as well as others that the Army, ANC, Congress, and the other stakeholders involved, including veterans, may propose in the future. This section includes an overview of the following items: • A description of the options included in each sample COA and the major high level activities for each, by phase (See appendix I for a detailed breakdown of the sample COA analysis). • Impacts of each sample COA on the capacity of the cemetery over time. • The key advantages and disadvantages involved with each sample COA. • An overall summary and analysis of each sample COA. In the context of this report, each sample COA provides additional details that describe what type of action will occur; when the action will begin; where the action will occur; why the action is required According to Joint Publication (purpose); and how the action will occur. In addition to 5-0, Joint Operation Planning, providing this information, the report also estimates the a COA is a potential way results of the combined impacts of options within each (solution, method) to sample COA. Each sample COA also contains a brief accomplish the assigned summary of considerations that may be taken into mission or end-state. account if the sample COA is selected for action or future action through legislative or non-legislative means. Sections 3.3.3 and 3.3.4, as well as appendix I, provide additional detail on the two sample COAs presented in this report. To reiterate, these example courses of action are not intended to be recommendations, but examples that demonstrate how phasing multiple options over time can also achieve the desired end-state. Option 1: Eligibility Option 2: Option 3: Other Expansion Alternatives Evaluating Options for Extending ANC as an Active Cemetery Kev Criteria I?tisitivr. Impact Negative Impact Neutral Impact 29 Emit? ?pad?, for Ensures access for certain Aw?: til I nchisin; Maintain: Maintains ANC Expansion with ?rst lmermentej groups for as long ?5 within its current lnummants POHIMB KM.- physical space Maintain current eligibility Adopt VA's requirement for 24 month active duty senrice minimum Retirees at or above certain of service Killed in action, who die on .ilcliw: qualifying awards Killed in action, who die on active duty, 5 Medal 01 only Killed in action it. Medal nl only Change eligibilityI tor in- grouncl burials only Proposed Southern I-xpansion l?rnjircl adjacent Government Lands Establish new Department nl' Delense run national cemetery New ways to use existing space ?Preserve" set number of spaces for killed in actiun, clic: rm Heliutr duty and Medal ul lionoi Prohibit use oi AME space for erecting monuments Enhance VA services to mirror ANC's *Manv ofthese options are not mutuallv exclusive and the best course of action may,r he a combination oi options .0. . a. -. Figure 17: Evaluating options for extending ANC as an active cemetery {Mil-{rig certain merw? groups itnnic bolt mm?; land Minimal time to lmhmenl 30 3.3.3 Sample course of action 1 Sample COA 1 achieves the end-state required by Public Law 114-158 by phasing several options over time for a combined effect. Sample COA 1 favors minor expansion of the cemetery’s footprint and major eligibility changes, phased in over a long period of time. (Note: Years listed are only an approximation. Phases in this sample COA will typically not begin until a preceding phase is complete.) Immediate actions (1-3 years): • Option 1B, adopting the VA’s requirement for a 24 month active duty service minimum. • Option 2A, solidify the land acquisition and fully fund the proposed Southern Expansion Project. Mid-range actions (3-10 years): • Option 1G, changing eligibility for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment separately. Far-term actions (10-20 years): • Option 1F, changing eligibility for inurnment or interment to those killed in action or who have received the Medal of Honor. Active-duty, non-hostile decedents will be laid to rest in VA cemeteries. Figure 18: Options included in sample COA 1 3.3.3.1 Major activities for sample course of action 1 If sample COA 1 were to be selected in the future, Phase 1 would begin upon notification to the Secretary of Defense of the details of the COA. The initial action during this COA would be the decision by the Secretary of the Army (or Congress—if legislated) to adopt 31 the VA’s requirement for a 24 month active duty service minimum. A Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) change shall be implemented as soon as reasonable. Phase 1 ends upon both the completion of land acquisition suitable for the accepted design of the proposed Southern Expansion Project and the project being fully funded. Phase 2 begins upon the funding of the proposed Southern Expansion Project and ends upon decision by the Secretary of the Army to modify burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment at ANC. Phase 3 begins when the Secretary of the Army completes implementation of the modified burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment, and ends upon the decision by the Secretary of the Army to preserve the remaining cemetery space for our Nation’s Service members who are killed in action and recipients of the Medal of Honor. Policy implementation should occur no later than fiscal year 2038. For a more detailed discussion of the options, activities, and timelines for this sample COA, see appendix I. 3.3.3.2 Summary of analysis for sample curse of action 1: disadvantages Key advantages and Key advantages: Sample COA 1 offers a feasible and suitable approach to extending ANC as an active cemetery for our most revered groups of veterans, those who are killed in action or recipients of the Medal of Honor, until roughly Sample COA 1: the year 2265. When combined with the services offered Key Take-Aways by the VA, and the phased nature of the sample COA, the sample COA becomes more publically acceptable. In the This sample COA: short-term, sample COA 1 standardizes eligibility criteria • Preserves the cemetery well by adopting the VA’s 24 month active duty service into the future (approximately minimum, which would reduce confusion for veterans the year 2265) for those killed regarding eligibility criteria, and also make more spaces in action and Medal of Honor and services available at ANC for veterans with longer recipients service periods. Additionally, rather than taking effect immediately, sample COA 1 offers an incremental, long- • Allows for a gradual shift in policy changes in order to term approach to phase in eligibility changes, giving educate the public on the need veterans and their family members time to plan and adjust. for such a change and give Sample COA 1 also includes extending ANC’s physical space to provide additional burial opportunities via the veterans time to plan proposed Southern Expansion Project, which is currently • Balances conservative land the most cost effective and operationally viable option for expansion with eligibility expanding the cemetery’s physical footprint using changes contiguous space. Given that most of the land surrounding ANC is currently in use, selecting a sample COA that minimizes the need for expansion will also reduce the burden on the taxpayer associated with future expansion efforts. 32 Key disadvantages: Sample COA 1 does offer some disadvantages, namely that by the end of Phase 3, the vast majority of veterans would be excluded from burial at ANC. It is important to note, however, that ANC will close to burials for all veteran populations regardless by mid-century, unless significant changes are made. Another potential risk of sample COA 1 If nothing is done to preserve occurs in Phase 2, when the large population of retired Arlington National Cemetery, it veterans would only be eligible for above-ground will close by mid-century. ANC inurnment in the columbaria or niche walls. This change will not have remaining space would generate significantly increased demand for for any veteran, even those above-ground space, resulting in columbaria and niche who exhibit extraordinary valor walls running out of space more quickly than in-ground or who make the ultimate space. This scarcity could in turn generate greater public sacrifice for our country. demand for additional above-ground space, and any new designs—specifically, proposed Southern Expansion Project designs—would require careful consideration to avoid altering the iconic look and nature of the cemetery. Lastly, careful coordination and planning would be required to ensure that the VA is prepared to serve the additional veterans who would no longer be laid to rest at ANC. For a more detailed list of the benefits, risks, assumptions, and constraints for this sample COA, see appendix I. 5.3.3.3. Summary and analysis of sample course of action 1 Sample COA 1 achieves the end-state of the law by preserving the cemetery well into the future. Recalling figure 9 it is important to note that the options selected for sample COA 1 accomplish most of the criteria. Overall, the sample COA creates new capacity at the cemetery through the proposed Southern Expansion Project; ensures access to the cemetery for our Nation’s Service members who are killed in action and Medal of Honor recipients; maintains the iconic look of the cemetery; limits the need for future land expansion beyond the proposed Southern Expansion Project; and can be implemented as quickly as the Secretary of the Army deems necessary. Unfortunately, this option does run the risk of disenfranchising a large portion of our veteran population. However, by nature our veterans are a population that may value the need and self-sacrifice required to preserve space for our future fallen heroes and those who are commended for their valor in the most trying of circumstances. Provided that veterans are given the complete and accurate information to make this decision, they may also support this sample COA example. 3.3.4 Sample course of action 2 Sample COA 2 achieves the end-state required by Public Law 114-158 using a phased, holistic approach. Sample COA 2 offers some overlap with the options proposed in sample COA 1, but this sample COA example also favors more aggressive land expansion, more moderate eligibility changes phased in over time, and exploration of other alternative approaches to expanding ANC’s capacity. (Note: Years listed in projections for this sample COA are only an approximation.) 33 Immediate actions (1-3 years): • Option 1B, adopting the VA’s requirement for a 24 month active duty service minimum. • Option 3C, prohibiting the future use of ANC space for the purpose of erecting monuments other than those memorials containing individual or group remains. • Option 2A, solidifying the land acquisition and fully funding the proposed Southern Expansion Project. Mid-range actions (3-10 years): • Option 3B, preserving a set number of spaces for decedents killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or with qualifying awards. • Option 2B, supporting transfer of adjacent Federal lands to ANC. • Option 1G, changing eligibility for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment separately. Far-term actions (10-20 years): • Option 3A, reimagining new ways to use existing space. • Option 2B, supporting transfer of adjacent Federal lands to ANC. Figure 19: Options included in sample COA 2 34 3.3.4.1 Major activities for sample course of action 2 In sample COA 2, Phase 1 would begin upon the notification to the Secretary of Defense of the details of the COA. The initial action during this COA is the decision by the Secretary of the Army (or Congress—if legislated) to adopt a 24 month active duty requirement for eligibility for ANC Phase 1 ends upon both the completion of land acquisition suitable for the accepted design of the proposed Southern Expansion Project, as well as receipt of full funding for the project. Phase 1 also includes the passing of a law or policy regarding new monuments at ANC. Phase 2 begins upon the funding of the proposed Southern Expansion Project and ends upon the decision by the Secretary of the Army to modify burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment at ANC. During this same timeframe, Phase 2 also includes the preservation of approximately 20,000 burial locations for those Service members who are killed in action or who receive the Medal of Honor, as well as planning for the transfer of adjacent Federal lands to ANC. Phase 3 begins when the Secretary of the Army completes implementation of the modified burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment, and ends upon the completion of the transfer of Government lands adjacent to the cemetery for cemetery use. For a more detailed discussion about the options, activities, and timelines for this COA example, see appendix I. 3.3.4.2 Summary of analysis for sample course of action 2: Key advantages and disadvantages Key advantages: Sample COA 2 offers a holistic approach that includes options from all three of the major categories of options (eligibility, expansion, and other alternative approaches). Like sample COA 1, sample COA 2 offers a feasible and suitable approach to extending ANC as an active cemetery for our Service members who are killed in action or recipients of the Medal of Honor, until roughly the late 2190s. While this timeframe is shorter overall than that achieved by sample COA 1 (which is estimated to extend ANC for these groups until roughly the early 2290s), sample COA 2 leaves a broader population of veterans eligible for ANC, including Service members who die on active duty, as well as recipients of other qualifying awards. Like sample COA 1, sample COA 2 also standardizes minimum eligibility criteria with the VA in the short-term by adopting the 24 month active duty service minimum in Phase 1, while gradually shifting to more selective eligibility criteria starting in Phase 2. This provides time for stakeholders, including veterans and the VA, to plan and adjust well in advance of upcoming changes. One of the major differences from sample COA 1 is that sample COA 2 relies more heavily on land expansion into adjacent Federal lands to increase the cemetery’s physical footprint. This expansion serves to increase the overall space, capacity, and longevity available to ANC, balanced with more moderate eligibility changes. Overall, greater land 35 expansion makes it possible to serve a broader veteran Sample COA 2: population than sample COA 1 well into the future. Lastly, Key Take-Aways sample COA 2 includes the possibility of exploring other alternatives to using existing space. This could include This sample COA: the adoption of new designs for columbaria and niche • Is a holistic approach walls; a different ratio of above-ground versus in-ground • Preserves ANC well into the space in new areas of the cemetery; and/or innovative future (approximately 2198) for approaches that could become more technologically those Service members killed feasible and socially acceptable in the future, such as the in action, on active duty, or use of memorial gardens for scattering loved ones’ ashes, with qualifying awards or new techniques such as resomation. While not • Balances phased eligibility currently included in ANC’s capacity projections, if changes with aggressive land adopted this option could offer a way to potentially expand expansion ANC’s capacity and longevity even further in the future. • Opens the door for new alternative approaches to Key disadvantages: As a whole, sample COA 2 is more above-ground space, which complex than sample COA 1, which means that it carries could further extend ANC’s a somewhat higher level of risk for planning, coordination, public outreach and messaging. Since several of the capacity and longevity in the options selected overlap in both of the sample COAs, future sample COA 2 and sample COA 1 offer some of the same • Allows for a gradual shift in disadvantages. By the end of Phase 3, similar to sample policy changes in order to COA 1, the large population of veterans would not have educate the public on the need an opportunity to be inurned at ANC, due to lack of for such a change and gives available above-ground space. This is because sample veterans time to plan COA 2 proposes a shift in eligibility policy for aboveground versus in-ground space. This will likely generate increased demand for above-ground space, which is projected to run out in roughly 2077 in sample COA 2. Careful planning and coordination with the VA are required to ensure it is prepared to serve a greater number of veterans with the level of service they have come to expect. Sample COA 2 also offers some unique disadvantages. First, by taking a more aggressive approach to expanding ANC into adjacent Federal lands, sample COA 2 carries a number of risks. At a high level, some of these risks include, among others: a long timetable for planning and greater potential for expansion efforts to fall through; reliance on lengthy political and legal processes for procuring approvals and funding; potential disruptions to the surrounding community; and unintended political and social consequences that may arise from shifting land usage. Additionally, we note that the cost of expansion may increase during this implementation timeline. As stewards of our Nation’s resources we should be mindful of this cost—and of the point where this cost may become excessive to such a degree that taxpayer support wanes. The other key disadvantage that is specific to sample COA 2 relates to the idea of reimagining new ways to use existing space. By nature, this option is uncertain, as it leaves room for innovative new options that could arise in the future as a result of evolving 36 burial technology and changing social norms and burial preferences. While this option has the potential to significantly increase ANC’s capacity, it could also represent a major shift in the way that some stakeholders have traditionally viewed ANC, including its iconic nature and look. For this reason, this option could be seen as controversial for some stakeholders. For a more detailed list of the benefits, risks, assumptions, and constraints for this sample COA example, see appendix I. 3.3.4.3 Summary and Analysis of Sample COA 2 Sample COA 2 does achieve the end-state of Public Law 114-158 by preserving Arlington National Cemetery well into the future. Like sample COA 1, the options selected for sample COA 2 accomplish most of the criteria laid forth in this report in figure 9. It is a holistic approach. In summary, sample COA 2 ensures access to ANC well into the future for our Service members who are killed in action or on active duty, as well as recipients of the Medal of Honor; creates new capacity for the cemetery by completing the proposed Southern Expansion Project and also expanding into adjacent Federal lands; introduces phased eligibility changes over time and ultimately leaves a broader population of veterans eligible than sample COA 1; and leaves room to pursue innovative new alternatives for reimagining existing unused space and expanding capacity in the future. On the other side, unfortunately, this option does run the risk of disenfranchising a portion of our veteran population by making them no longer eligible for ANC, or by changing their eligibility from in-ground to above-ground. Sample COA 2 carries significant potential risks and costs to the taxpayer regarding expansion into adjacent Federal lands; and could potentially impact the cemetery’s traditional iconic look and nature, depending on how the options are implemented. If this sample COA were to be selected, Army and ANC leaders would need to identify and evaluate any potential impacts in these areas, as well as others that may arise, and maintain an open dialogue with stakeholders. As discussed, these sample COAs are presented as a theoretical exercise to demonstrate how some of the options in the report could be combined to achieve a solution that is feasible, acceptable, and suitable while achieving the desired end-state. They do not represent a real decision point or plan of action at this time. Regardless of the course of action ultimately chosen, the American public should view this decision-making process as a positive opportunity to participate in our democracy—just as they did through their elected Congress by requiring this report from the Army. This process will spur our Nation to truly analyze what Arlington National Cemetery means to us as a people—a people that honor our war heroes who symbolize the same profound ideals of patriotism and selfsacrifice that brought us all together as a Nation in 1776. Section 3.4 discusses the next steps for continuing this process of national dialogue and decision-making. 3.4 An Action Plan for Shaping the Future of Arlington National Cemetery ANC’s capacity shrinks with each passing day, so it is imperative to act quickly and decisively in order to proactively shape its future. In the 1960s, ANC was only two years away from closing before the issue received attention at the national level. Today, we have the opportunity to act far sooner. This report lays out a set of legislative actions and 37 non-legislative options for addressing this challenge, as well as two sample courses of action and a recommended framework and criteria for evaluating them, and others that will arise. The Army and ANC request the support of Congress as difficult decisions regarding eligibility changes and expansion options are considered. It is critical to facilitate an inclusive process that honors the different voices and perspectives at stake. Since Public Law 114-158 was signed, ANC has employed a vigorous engagement strategy in order to involve stakeholders in the discussion and gain a sense of the attitudes toward this issue. ANC staff has met with a variety of groups including many veteran service organizations (VSOs) and military service organizations (MSOs) who serve our veteran and active duty populations, congressional staff, and the Advisory Committee. For a list of the stakeholders that ANC has engaged thus far, see appendix G. During these important meetings, the ANC staff has discovered a wide range of beliefs regarding the purpose of ANC and how to keep the cemetery active well into the future. Yet, however wide-ranging these views are, a few common threads do exist that represent a solid starting point for discussion. First, stakeholders feel that ANC should remain a viable and active cemetery for our Service members who are killed in action or who die on active duty—not only for the near-term, but for many years to come and for conflicts we have yet to imagine. Second, a change in eligibility at ANC raises a number of concerns with some VSOs/MSOs. Some feel that ANC should exhaust expansion options first before pursuing eligibility change options. Finally, many stakeholders believe that, at minimum, eligibility for ANC and the VA cemeteries should be the same. More dialogue and engagement are needed over the coming months and years in order to shape the future of ANC and how we honor our Nation’s war heroes. Discussion on these options and courses of action should continue at a series of open meetings whereby stakeholders can voice their opinions and raise key issues for debate. Figure 20: Report Planning Process 38 In order to make informed decisions throughout this process, the Army will continue to refine capacity projections over time. As discussed in Section 2, some of these questions will require further study. For example, to further understand veterans’ needs in the future, ANC would benefit from additional data that is currently unavailable, such as more detailed information about veterans’ burial preferences (burial or cremation, attitude toward green burials, etc.) by age group and other demographics. As an icon in our national consciousness and an important part of national culture and history, the future of Arlington National Cemetery is a matter that impacts the entire Nation. In particular, it personally affects our armed Service members and their loved ones, especially those who make the ultimate sacrifice for their country and deserve to be laid to rest with the utmost honor and respect. Deciding the future of Arlington National Cemetery must therefore become part of a continued national dialogue. What is the vision for ANC? What are the most important factors in determining how long ANC should remain an active cemetery? Which of the options and criteria, or a combination of them, represent the best solution for our veterans and the country? Lastly, knowing that Arlington National Cemetery cannot continue forever in its current state, how will we honor our war heroes and veterans over the next 100-200 years or more? A-1 A. Reference Documents DOCUMENT Army National Cemeteries Program 1 Campaign Plan 2012 (January 1, 2012) USE ii. Mission Statement 2 Executive Summary 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 House Report 4336, Pub. L. No. 114-158, 130 Stat. 394 (2016) Center for Army Analysis. (2016). Arlington National Cemetery Planning Tool [Data Set and Modeling Tool]. The Secretary of the Army, with the approval of the Secretary of Defense, shall determine eligibility for interment or inurnment in the Cemeteries.10 USC 4722 (a)(1). United States Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Public Affairs, Memorial Day (n.d.) History Retrieved from http://www.va.gov/opa/speceven/memday/his tory.asp History, 1868 Civil War Dead Honored on Decoration Day (n.d.). http://www.history.com/this-day-inhistory/civil-war-dead-honored-ondecoration-day United States Department of Veterans Affairs, National Cemetery Administration. (2015). National Cemeteries Dates Established and First Burials [Fact Sheet]. Retrieved from http://www.cem.va.gov/docs/factsheets/estab lish.pdf. The Secretary of Defense, McNamara, Robert S. (1966). MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT. [Memorandum]. Washington, DC: Department of Defense. National Cemeteries Act of 1973, Pub. L. No. 93-43, 72 Stat. 1117 (1973) United States Department of Veterans Affairs National Cemetery Administration. (2015). History and Development of the National Cemetery Administration [Fact Sheet]. Retrieved from http://www.cem.va.gov/cem/docs/factsheets/ history.pdf SOURCE Arlington National Cemetery Public Law Executive Summary Center for Army Analysis Executive Summary United States Code 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History United States Department of Veterans Affairs 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History History.com 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History United States Department of Veterans Affairs 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History United States Department of Defense 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History 1. Arlington National Cemetery: An Icon of Living History Public Law United States Department of Veterans Affairs National Cemetery Administration A-2 Real Property Master Plan 2013, Arlington National Cemetery 2014 Reprint (December 22, 2014). CAA. (2015, March). Arlington National Cemetery – Southern Expansion Project (ANC-SEP) In Progress Review. Presented at the Federal Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery. Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services System (2016). 2.1 The Impact of Space on ANC’s Capacity 14 Department of Veterans Affairs, National Cemetery Administration, Policy and Planning Service. (2015). National Cemetery Administration Summary of Veteran Interments: FY2000 to FY2014 [Data Set]. 2.2 The Impact of Eligibility and Veteran Demand on ANC’s Capacity 15 Department of Veterans Affairs, Office of Policy and Planning, Office of the Actuary. (2015). Veteran Population Model 2014. Retrieved from http://www.va.gov/vetdata/docs/Demographic s/New_Vetpop_Model/VetPop2014Documen t.pdf House Report 1627, Pub. L. No. 112-154, 126 Stat. 1165 (2012) House Report 4531, Pub. L. No. 99-625, (1986) 2.2 The Impact of Eligibility and Veteran Demand on ANC’s Capacity 11 12 13 16 17 2.2 The Impact of Eligibility and Veteran Demand on ANC’s Capacity 2.2 The Impact of Eligibility and Veteran Demand on ANC’s Capacity 3.2.3 Option 3: Other Alternative Approaches 3.2.3 Option 3: Other Alternative Approaches Arlington National Cemetery Center for Army Analysis Arlington National Cemetery, Interment Services United States Department of Veterans Affairs National Cemetery Administration United States Department of Veterans Affairs Public Law Public Law B-1 B. Terms of Reference TERM DEFINITION Capacity Caparisoned Center for Army Analysis (CAA) Capacity Tool Columbarium Availability of locations to support a first interment or inurnment An ornamental or decorative covering for a horse Analytical modeling tool built by the CAA to assess capacity at ANC The Advisory Committee Decedent Eternal Flame First Interment or Inurnment Green Burial Honor Flight Interment Interment Services System (ISS) Inurnment Memorial Garden Millennium Project Niche Wall The Old Guard Qualifying Awards Resomation Southern Expansion A room, building, or wall with niches for funeral urns to be perpetually stored for decedents who are laid to rest The Federal Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery established by the Federal Advisory Committee Act Individual person who passes away and is interred or inurned Iconic site at ANC. A natural gas-fed torch commemorated at President Kennedy’s grave site that is specifically designed to continuously light regardless of inclement weather The first, or initial, interment or inurnment of a veteran, spouse, or dependent into an available burial or niche space An interment or inurnment with minimal environmental impact that aids in the conservation of natural resources, reduction of carbon emissions, protection of worker health, and the restoration and/or preservation of habitat Conducted by a non-profit organization dedicated to transporting United States military veterans to see memorials in Washington, DC at no cost to the veterans The act of burying a deceased individual. Includes both casketed burials and in-ground burial of cremated remains ANC’s system of record for electronic decedent records To entomb or to place cremated remains in an urn. At ANC, inurnment can be in-ground or above-ground in a columbarium or niche wall A space designed for families to scatter the ashes of their loved ones, with the individual typically commemorated on a wall or plaque Expansion project near completion (2017) that will provide 27 contiguous acres to ANC. Located to the northwest of current ANC grounds. Estimated capacity of 27,282 spaces (10,882 spaces for ground burial and 16,400 spaces for above-ground inurnment) A walled structure within or on the perimeter of a cemetery with niches to perpetually store funeral urns for decedents who are laid to rest The Third United States Infantry (The Old Guard) is the ceremonial unit assigned to the Military District of Washington. They are a fully trained infantry unit and perform a variety of ceremonies Veterans who are recipients of specific awards are eligible for interment/inurnment at ANC. These awards include the Medal of Honor, Distinguished Service Cross, Navy Cross, Air Force Cross Distinguished Service Medal, Silver Star, and or Purple Heart A new water-based alternative to cremation A proposed expansion of ANC’s southern boundaries with approximately 38 acres of contiguous land adjacent to the United States Air Force Memorial. ANC estimates the expansion will provide between 40,000 and 60,000 first interment burial opportunities C-1 C. List of Acronyms ACRONYM ABMC ANC ANMC CAA CFR COA DoD GIS HVAC ISS MSO NCA NCS PMESII PSM SAHNC SVAC VA VSO EXPLANATION American Battle Monuments Commission Arlington National Cemetery Army National Military Cemeteries Center for Army Analysis Code of Federal Regulations Course of Action United States Department of Defense Geospatial Information System United States House of Representatives Committee on Veterans’ Affairs Interment Services System Military Service Organization National Cemetery Administration National Cemetery System Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information Systems Professional Staff Member, United States Congress United States Soldiers' and Airmen’s Home National Cemetery United States Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs United States Department of Veterans Affairs Veterans Service Organization D-1 D. Historical Review of Arlington National Cemetery Eligibility Figure 21 History of eligibility changes at ANC D-2 Timeline of ANC Eligibility Changes • May 13, 1864 – ANC became one of the first 12 national cemeteries established – Original standard of “…soldiers who shall die in the service of the country.” • 1948 - 1951 – codified in 24 USC 281 – Interment of the following classes of persons: all members or former members of the armed Services whose last service terminated honorably; any citizen who served or who hereafter serves with the armed forces of an ally and whose service terminated honorably; the spouse, minor children and, with the discretion of the Secretary of the Army, unmarried adult children of those named in the first two categories – First publishing of eligibility rules in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 32 CRF part 553 (27 Nov 1951) • 1952 – Prohibited persons convicted of certain crimes • 1956 – Amended CFR – Interment of members of the Reserve components, the Army or Air National Guard and ROTC whose death occurs, in general, while in an active duty status or authorized inactive duty status or while being hospitalized • 1967 – Amended CFR – Limiting interments to members of the active duty Armed Forces, retired members of the Armed Forces, Medal of Honor recipients and elected officials or high level appointees who had served on active duty in the Armed Forces and had been honorable discharged • 1970 – Amended 1952 crime language – Been convicted of a crime, the result of was the loss of the United States citizenship, a sentence of death, a sentence of imprisonment for five years or more, or more or any sentence for offenses involving subversive activities • 1973 – National Cemeteries Act – Moved the majority of the National Cemeteries from the Department of the Army to Department of Veterans Administration (VA) with the notable exception of Arlington National Cemetery and United States Soldier’s and Airmen’s Home National Cemetery – Repealed 24 USC 281. However, the law specifically stated; “…nothing in the law shall be deemed to affect in any manner the functions, powers, and duties of the Secretary of the Army with respect to those cemeteries…” not transferred from the Army to the VA. Public Law 93-43 • 1977 – Formal Rule Making – Adding recipients of the Distinguished Service Cross, Distinguished Service Medal, Silver Star and Purple Heart to those eligible for interment at ANC. 32 CFR part 553 D-3 • 1980 – Columbarium opens / CFR is amended (current) – Allowing for inurnment of Service members, Veterans and their eligible family members. The Army, through formal federal rule making, allowed for inurnment of all honorable discharged Veterans who served on active duty for other than training • 1994 – Authorizes interment former POWs under certain criteria • 1997 – Persons who have been convicted of certain capital crimes and die after – January 1, 1997 are denied eligibility for interment or inurnment at ANC. This law is codified at 38 USC 2411 • 2011 – Authority of the Secretary of the Army – Given specific statutory authority to determine eligibility for interment and inurnment at Arlington National Cemetery – Approval from the Secretary of Defense required – Formal notice and comment rulemaking required – Codified at 10 USC 4722 (Public Law 112-81) • 2013 – Tier III Sex Offenders – Persons who have been convicted of certain sex offenses and die after January 10, 2013 are denied eligibility for interment or inurnment – 38 USC 2411 (Public Law 112-260) • May 20, 2016 – Amendment to Section 2410 of title 38 USC – Provide for the inurnment in Arlington National Cemetery of the cremated remains of certain persons whose service has been determined to be active service – A person whose service has been determined to be active duty service pursuant to section 401 of the GI Bill Improvement Act of 1977 (Public Law 85-202; 38 USC 106 note) • The remains of a person that are not formally interred or inurned as of the date of the enactment of the this Act; and • A person who dies on or after the date of the enactment of this Act. E-1 E. Comparing Eligibility at Arlington National Cemetery and the Department of Veterans Affairs Cemeteries (Most Common Eligibility Criteria) Key:  = Eligible X = Ineligible Eligibility Criteria* Arlington National Cemetery VA National Cemeteries In-Ground AboveIn-Ground Interment/ Ground Interment/ Inurnment Inurnment Inurnment Veterans with active duty service beginning before September 7, 1980 for enlisted; service beginning before October 16, 1981 for officers    Killed in action and active duty    Qualifying awards (Medal of Honor, Distinguished Service Cross, Navy Cross, Air Force Cross Distinguished Service Medal, Silver Star, Purple Heart)    Any retired member of the Armed Forces X   Type of Discharge: Honorable discharge Length of service: at least 1 day of active duty service X X  Type of Discharge: Greater than a dishonorable discharge, but less than an honorable discharge (i.e. general discharge under honorable conditions, other than honorable discharge (OTH), bad conduct discharge) Length of Service: any length of service X X X Type of Discharge: Dishonorable discharge Length of Service: Any length of service Veterans with active duty service beginning after September 7, 1980 for enlisted; service beginning after October 16, 1981 for officers Killed in action and active duty    Qualifying awards (Medal of Honor, Distinguished Service Cross, Navy Cross, Air Force Cross    Distinguished Service Medal, Silver Star, Purple Heart) Any retired member of the Armed Forces    Type of Discharge: Honorable discharge Length of Service: Between 1 day to 24 months of X  X active duty service Type of Discharge: Greater than a dishonorable discharge, but less than an honorable X X  discharge (i.e. general discharge under honorable conditions, other than honorable discharge (OTH), bad conduct discharge) Length of Service: At least 24 months of active duty service Type of Discharge: Greater than an dishonorable discharge, but less than an honorable X X X discharge (i.e. general discharge under honorable conditions, other than honorable discharge (OTH), bad conduct discharge) Length of Service: Less than 24 months of active duty service Type of Discharge: Dishonorable discharge Length of Service: Any length of service X X X Family Members of Qualifying Veterans Spouse of service member (based on service member’s eligibility)    AboveGround Inurnment      X    X  X X  E-2 Dependents (minor child or dependent adult child incapable of self-support due to physical or mental condition) Dependents (unmarried adult child who is under 21 years of age or who is under 23 years of age and pursuing full-time course of instruction at an approved educational institution) Other exceptions and qualified populations*             *There are numerous exceptions and other qualified groups eligible for interment and/or inurnment at ANC and VA National Cemeteries. For full eligibility criteria and exceptions, visit the Arlington National Cemetery website at http://www.arlingtoncemetery.mil/Funerals/Scheduling-a-Funeral/Establishing-Eligibility/ and the VA National Cemetery Administration website at http://www.cem.va.gov/burial_benefits/eligible.asp F-1 Figure 22: Screenshot of ANC Cemetery Planning (Capacity Modeling) Tool F. Screenshot from the Center for Army Analysis Capacity Modeling Tool G-1 G. Stakeholder Engagement Register Purpose: Arlington National Cemetery is engaging various stakeholders in discussions about the cemetery’s current capacity and the options available to extend the life of the cemetery well into the future. Some of these stakeholders include: Service members; veterans and their family members; Veterans Service Organizations and Military Service Organizations; the United States Congress; the Department of Defense; and the United States public. This Stakeholder Engagement Register provides a list of the stakeholders that the cemetery has engaged to date to obtain feedback and questions on the ANC Interment and Inurnment Capacity Report to Congress. This list does not constitute an endorsement of this report; it only means that ANC has engaged the stakeholder to begin a dialogue. ANC will continue to engage stakeholders after publishing the report and as part of the process of making final decisions on the cemetery’s future. STAKEHOLDER (As of December 13, 2016) DATE ENGAGEMENT OCCURRED Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery 23 August 2016 Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery 6-7 September 2016 National Military Family Association 21 September 2016 Military Officer’s Association of America 21 September 2016 Commissioned Officers Association of the US Public Health Service 21 September 2016 US Army Warrant Officers Association 21 September 2016 Air Force Sergeants Association 21 September 2016 Vietnam Veterans of America 21 September 2016 Fleet Reserve Association 21 September 2016 Association of the United States Army 21 September 2016 Non-Commissioned Officers Association of the USA 21 September 2016 Staff Member, Committee on Veterans’ Affairs, United States Congress 27 September 2016 Staff Member, Subcommittee on Disability Assistance and Memorial Affairs, United States House of Representatives 27 September 2016 MSO/VSO Roundtable – United States Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs (SVAC) and United States House of Representatives Committee on Veterans’ Affairs (HVAC) Staff Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery 19 October 2016 24-25 October 2016 ANMC-NCA-ABMC Joint Working Group 9 December 2016 SVAC and HVAC Professional Staff Member (PSM) update briefing 15 December 2016 SVAC and HVAC PSM update briefing Advisory Committee on Arlington National Cemetery 10 January 2017 23-24 January 2017 H-1 Figure 23: Definitions of options for extending ANC as an active cemetery H. Definitions of Options to Extend Arlington National Cemetery as an Active Cemetery I-1 I. Detailed Breakdown of Course of Action Analysis: A Framework for Evaluating the Sample Courses of Action This section is a continuation of Section 3.3 and provides a more detailed analysis regarding the two sample courses of action (COAs) presented in this report. This section explores the major activities for each phase, as well as the key benefits, risks, assumptions, and constraints. These sample COAs are presented as a theoretical exercise to show how some of the options in this report could be combined, and to provide a blueprint for evaluating future COAs and recommendations. These sample COAs and the corresponding analysis do not represent a real decision point or plan of action at this time. Sample COA 1: Figure 24: Options included in sample COA 1 If sample COA 1 were to be selected in the future, the following section provides a phaseby-phase breakdown of the high level activities that would be associated with that example COA. This is a theoretical exercise and should not be interpreted as an action plan at this point. Overview of Major Activities for Sample COA 1 by Phase Phase 1 Phase 1 begins upon notification to the Secretary of Defense of the details of the COA. The initial action during this COA would be the decision by the Secretary of the Army (or Congress—if legislated) to adopt a 24 month active duty requirement for eligibility for ANC. A CFR change shall be implemented as soon as reasonable. Phase 1 ends upon both the completion of land acquisition suitable for the accepted design of the proposed Southern Expansion Project, as well as receipt of full funding for the project. I-2 Option 1B involves adopting the VA’s requirement for a 24 month active duty service minimum. Changing eligibility standards to match the VA’s service-length requirement will reduce confusion with eligible veterans and their families at their time of need—and when planning for that occasion. This change is not intended to impact the type of discharge and character of service requirement for ANC; ANC will continue to require an honorable discharge. The cemetery currently serves a small number of veterans annually who would not also qualify for a VA cemetery due to the VA’s requirement for 24 months of active duty service. These veterans would need to make alternative arrangements. To clarify, this scenario does not apply to Service members who are killed in action with less than 24 months of active duty service. Option 2A involves solidifying the land acquisition and fully funding the proposed Southern Expansion Project. The most immediate parcel of land available to expand ANC is the land formerly occupied by the Navy Annex and intended for transfer to the Army for use as cemetery grounds. Due to the need to arrange for the transfer/acquisition of land with Arlington County and the Commonwealth of Virginia, the re-routing of public roadways, and land usage agreements, this project has required a significant amount of negotiations. Upon reaching an agreement on the land acquisition, the Army will request funding to complete the expansion. Cost estimates for this expansion are available in figure 14. Phase 2 Phase 2 begins upon the funding of the proposed Southern Expansion Project and ends upon the decision by the Secretary of the Army to modify burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment at ANC. Option 1G involves changing eligibility for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment separately. During phase 2, the Secretary of the Army will direct ANC to provide inground, first interment honors (either casketed or cremated) to Service members who are killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or are recipients of qualifying awards. ANC will continue to serve the retiree population by providing above-ground inurnment opportunities until above-ground capacity is reached, or until Phase 3 policy changes occur. Those veterans who received an honorable discharge and who also served at least 24 months of active duty service will remain eligible for VA cemeteries. Implementation of Option 1G should occur 24 months following the start of Phase 2. This purposeful delay will provide time for the VA to prepare to support an increased number of services for those retired veterans who might choose ground burial at a VA cemetery rather than inurnment at ANC. Phase 3 Phase 3 begins when the Secretary of the Army completes implementation of the modified burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment, and ends upon the decision by the Secretary of the Army to preserve the remaining cemetery space for our Nation’s Service members who are killed in action and recipients of the Medal of Honor. Policy implementation should occur no later than fiscal year 2041. I-3 Option 1F involves changing eligibility for interment or inurnment for those Service members who are killed in action or who have received the Medal of Honor. Active-duty, non-hostile decedents will be laid to rest in VA cemeteries. I-4 The chart below visually depicts the major phases, activities, and timeframes that would be associated with sample COA 1, as discussed in the section above. Figure 25: Major phases, activities, and timeframes for sample COA 1 I-5 Considerations for Sample COA 1: Analysis of Benefits, Risks, Assumptions, and Constraints The following table explores a number of considerations that are important to take into account, if sample COA 1 were to be selected. The benefits, risks, assumptions, and constraints are evaluated according to their impacts in the following dimensions: political, military, economic, social, information, and infrastructure. This type of analysis is known and the PMESII model, which is used extensively in military planning. Considerations for Sample COA 1 • • • • • • • Benefits • • • • • Risks • • Preserves ANC well into the future for veterans who are killed in action and/or recipients of the Medal of Honor (Military, Social, Political) Maintains a balance between expansion and eligibility changes (Political, Economic) Provides veterans and family members time to plan and adjust to eligibility incrementally over a long period of time (Military, Social) Standardizes ANC’s eligibility standards more closely with those of the VA, reducing confusion for veterans (Political, Military, Social) Provides time for the VA time to adjust to ANC’s eligibility changes and to prepare to serve a larger population of veterans (Political, Military) Helps to preserve ANC’s iconic nature (presuming columbaria is a balanced approach) (Infrastructure, Social) Is relatively cost effective compared with other options (Economic, Infrastructure) • Supports the proposed Southern Expansion Project, which is currently the most operationally feasible expansion option being considered • Avoids significant future costs to the taxpayer by not pursuing additional land expansion for the foreseeable future • Minimizes disruption to surrounding communities, roadways, and Government installations by avoiding future contiguous land expansion efforts Preserves space for any unanticipated increases in active duty deaths due to future military conflicts (Military, Information) Makes more space available for veterans with greater than 24 months of honorable active duty service (Military, Social) Should the COA be stopped at any phase, there is still a residual benefit to capacity (Political, Social) Some veterans, including the large retiree population, may feel disenfranchised by the change to above-ground only eligibility (Social, Military) The long-term, phased concept could provide an opportunity to “over-analyze” the problem and promote indecisiveness, while ANC capacity diminishes every day (Political, Information) Some stakeholders may not understand the urgency or full impacts of the problem (Social, Information) Mid-term eligibility changes may place pressure for more columbaria expansion, which could alter the iconic look and nature of ANC (Infrastructure, Social) I-6 • • • • • • Assumptions • • • • • • • Constraints • • • If the proposed Southern Expansion Project is not funded, then ANC will have to rely on eligibility and/or other alternative approaches to address the capacity problem Political pushback could cause Congress to legislate ANC’s eligibility standards, which would make future legal changes/evolutions more difficult and complex (Political) Some eligibility criteria are currently based in law (for example, Public Law 114-158), while others are not (Most of ANC’s eligibility policy is currently determined by the Secretary of the Army) (Political, Social) • In the future, there could be unintended benefits given to some groups based on the current legal exceptions, and not others (i.e. if the Secretary changes ANC eligibility policy, Congress would have to overturn the current laws granting certain groups access, or allow those specific groups to continue being eligible) Stakeholders desire to preserve space at ANC for those veterans who are killed in action or who are recipients of the Medal of Honor well into the future (Social, Military) Stakeholders desire to preserve the iconic nature and look of Arlington National Cemetery (Social, Infrastructure) The proposed Southern Expansion Project effort will continue forward as planned (Infrastructure) • Land and construction agreements with Arlington County will be established and/or remain in place • Congress will fund the proposed Southern Expansion Project The VA will support and have the capability to absorb the increased population of veterans (Political, Economic, Infrastructure, Military) The rate of veterans served by ANC will remain consistent based on recent yearly averages and operational capacity (Information) Congress will support the policy and legislative changes needed to extend ANC’s capacity well into the future (Political, Economic) Those veterans who are killed in action and/or are recipients of the Medal of Honor and their families will prefer in-ground burials (Social) Time is a key constraint (regarding the cemetery’s capacity and longevity, decision-making, implementation, etc.) (Political, Economic) Some eligibility criteria are currently based in law, while others are not (Most of ANC’s eligibility policy is currently determined by the Secretary of the Army) (Political, Social) Physical: contiguous space near ANC is finite and costly (some land is currently in use and all of it is owned by different Government agencies or other groups) (Infrastructure, Economic, Political, Social) Funding amounts and/or limits will constrain expansion options (i.e. for the proposed Southern Expansion Project) (Economic) ANC’s operational capacity constrains the rate of interments/inurnments (Infrastructure, Economic, Social) Decisions and changes must be acceptable to stakeholders I-7 Sample COA 2: Figure 26: Options included in sample COA 2 If sample COA 2 were to be selected in the future, the following section provides a phaseby-phase breakdown of the high level activities that would be associated with that example COA. This is a theoretical exercise and should not be interpreted as an action plan at this point. Overview of Major Activities for Sample COA 2 by Phase Phase 1 Phase 1 begins upon notification to the Secretary of Defense of the details of the COA. The initial action during this phase is the decision by the Secretary of the Army (or Congress—if legislated) to adopt a 24 month active duty requirement for eligibility for ANC. A CFR change shall be implemented as soon as reasonable. Phase 1 ends upon both the completion of land acquisition suitable for the accepted design of the proposed Southern Expansion Project, as well as receipt of full funding for the project. Option 1B involves adopting the VA’s requirement for a 24 month active duty service minimum. Changing eligibility standards to match the VA’s service-length requirement will reduce confusion with eligible veterans and their families at their time of need—and I-8 when planning for that occasion. This change is not intended to impact the type of discharge and character of service requirement for ANC; ANC will continue to require an honorable discharge. The cemetery currently serves a small number of veterans annually who would not also qualify for a VA cemetery due to the VA’s requirement for 24 months of active duty service. These veterans would need to make alternative arrangements. To clarify, this scenario does not apply to Service members who are killed in action with less than 24 months of active duty service. Option 3C prohibits the future use of ANC space for the purpose of erecting commemorative monuments other than those memorials containing individual or group remains. As ANC has few monuments that do not mark remains and foresees no negative impact to the individual veteran or family as a result of this change. This option may be accomplished concurrently with Option 1B if the Secretary of the Army or Congress desire. This change will directly result in the preservation of space for individual “in memory of” markers—as required by law. Option 2A involves solidifying the land acquisition and fully funding the proposed Southern Expansion Project. The most immediate parcel of land available to expand ANC is the land formerly occupied by the Navy Annex and intended for transfer to the Army for use as cemetery grounds. Due to the need to arrange for the transfer or acquisition of land with Arlington County and the Commonwealth of Virginia, re-routing of public roadways, and land usage agreements, this project has required a significant amount of negotiation. Upon reaching an agreement on the land acquisition, the Army will request funding to complete the expansion. Cost estimates for this expansion can be found in figure 14. Phase 2 Phase 2 begins upon the funding of the proposed Southern Expansion Project and ends upon the receipt of funding for expansion of the cemetery into adjacent Government lands. Option 3B preserves approximately 20,000 burial locations throughout the cemetery for those who are killed in action or who have received the Medal of Honor. However, ANC will not begin using these plots until the cemetery otherwise reaches capacity for inground burials. Option 2B asks that Congress support the transfer of adjacent Federal lands to ANC for cemetery use. During Phase 2 the Government will determine the parcels of adjacent Government land that will be transferred during Phase 3. Option 1G involves changing eligibility for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment separately. During Phase 2, the Secretary of the Army will direct ANC to provide inground, first interment honors (either casketed or cremated) to Service members who are killed in action, who die on active duty, and/or are recipients of qualifying awards. ANC will continue to serve the retiree population by providing above-ground inurnment opportunities until above-ground capacity is reached. Those veterans who received the I-9 proper discharge and who also served at least 24 months of active duty service will remain eligible for VA cemeteries. Implementation of Option 1G should occur 24 months following the start of Phase 2. This purposeful delay will provide time for the VA to prepare to support an increased number of services for those retired veterans who might choose inground burial at a VA cemetery rather than inurnment at ANC. Phase 3 Phase 3 begins when the Secretary of the Army completes implementation of the modified burial policy for in-ground burials and above-ground inurnment, and ends upon the completion of the transfer of Government lands adjacent to ANC for cemetery use. Option 3A, reimaging new ways to use existing space, will occur concurrently with other options—and possibly prior to Phase 3, if leadership desires. ANC cannot currently provide data on this option due to the various possibilities and their impact on cemetery capacity. It is most likely that new ways to use existing space will involve inurnment and or green burial techniques, rather than interment. This would therefore help prolong the cemetery’s above-ground capacity so that ANC can serve a larger population of retired veterans. I-10 The chart below visually depicts the major phases, activities, and timeframes that would be associated with sample COA 2, as discussed in the previous section. Figure 27: Major phases, activities, and timeframes for sample COA 2 I-11 Considerations for Sample COA 2: Analysis of Benefits, Risks, Assumptions, and Constraints The following table explores a number of considerations that are important to take into account, if sample COA 2 were to be selected. Similar to COA 1, this section evaluates the COA based on the PMESII model. Considerations for Sample COA 2 • • • • • • • • • Benefits • • • • • • Preserves ANC well into the future for veterans who are killed in action and/or recipients of the Medal of Honor (Military, Social, Political) Balances the need to reserve space for those who are killed in action and/or recipients of the Medal of Honor, while still considering options that may extend the cemetery’s longevity for other veteran eligibility groups, such as retirees (Social, Political, Military) Standardizes ANC’s eligibility standards more closely with those of the VA, reducing confusion for veterans (Political, Military, Social) Makes more space available for veterans with greater than 24 months of honorable active duty service (Military, Social) Provides time for the VA to adjust to ANC’s eligibility changes and prepare to serve a larger population of veterans (Political, Military) Provides veterans and their family members time to plan and adjust to eligibility changes incrementally over a long period of time (Military, Social) Maintains a balance between expansion and eligibility changes (Political, Economic) Helps to preserve ANC’s iconic nature (presuming columbaria is a balanced approach) (Infrastructure, Social) Balances preservation of the traditional nature of the cemetery while considering new innovative approaches (Social, Political, Infrastructure) Preserves ANC as an active cemetery at near-operational capacity for a longer amount of time • Ceremonies contribute to ANC’s iconic nature (Social) • Ceremonies and the constant presence of active duty Service members build respect for the military (Military, Social) • Offers an economic benefit from tourism (Economic) Promotes legislative and legal consistency and impartiality (Political) Provides an extended period of decision making time for future considered efforts (Political, Social) • Should the COA be stopped at any phase, there is still a residual benefit to capacity (Political, Social) Preserves space for any unanticipated increases in active duty deaths due to future military conflicts (Military, Information) Opens the possibility for creative alternative options for above-ground space in the cemetery in the future (Infrastructure, Social, Information) • Potential for significant increase in capacity of above-ground space Preserves space that is not currently suitable for burial, in case of changes in burial technology or other operational uses (utilities, infrastructure, etc.) (Infrastructure) I-12 • Reduces the level of effort spent on monument requests for Army and cemetery staff, keeping the focus on ANC’s primary mission (Economic, Political, Information) • Some veterans, including the large retiree population, may feel disenfranchised by the change to above-ground only eligibility (Social, Military) The long-term, phased concept could provide an opportunity to “over-analyze” the problem and promote indecisiveness, while ANC capacity diminishes every day (Political, Information) Some stakeholders may not understand the urgency or full impacts of the problem (Social, Information) Expansion efforts could be costly (Economic, Infrastructure) Expansion efforts could disrupt the surrounding land and environment (Infrastructure, Social, Political) • Some lands identified for expansion are currently in use; expansion could cause disruption (Infrastructure, Social, Political) • Shifting land usage could have unintended social consequences (acquiring adjacent land) (Social, Political) Eligibility changes may place pressure for more columbaria expansion, which could alter the iconic look and nature of ANC (Infrastructure, Social) Some veterans may view new alternative new above-ground options as less desirable compared to traditional in-ground burial options at ANC (Social) If the proposed Southern Expansion Project is not funded, then ANC will have to rely on eligibility and/or other alternative approaches to address the capacity problem (Infrastructure, Economic, Political) Political pushback could cause Congress to legislate ANC’s eligibility standards, which would make future legal changes/evolutions more difficult and complex (Political) Some eligibility criteria is currently based in law (for example, Public Law 114158), while others are not (Most of ANC’s eligibility policy is currently determined by the Secretary of the Army) (Political, Social) • In the future, there could be unintended benefits given to some groups based on the current legal exceptions, and not others (i.e. if the Secretary changes ANC eligibility policy, Congress would have to overturn the current laws granting certain groups access, or allow those specific groups to continue being eligible) COA 2 is complex, consisting of a broad range of options; this makes it more difficult to explain and gain support (Information) • • • • • Risks • • • • • • • Assumptions • • • Stakeholders desire to preserve space at ANC for those veterans who are killed in action or who are recipients of the Medal of Honor well into the future (Social, Military) Congress will support the policy and legislative changes needed to extend ANC’s capacity well into the future (Political, Economic) Stakeholders desire to preserve ANC’s traditional iconic nature (Social) Congress and the public will support and fund additional expansion efforts (Political, Economic) A threshold of acceptability exists regarding the cost of expansion efforts (Economic) I-13 • • • • • • • • • • • • • Constraints • • • The proposed Southern Expansion Project effort will continue forward as planned (Infrastructure) • Land and construction agreements with Arlington County will be established and/or remain in place (Political, Infrastructure) Adjacent Government lands will still be available for negotiation and acquisition when needed in the future (Political, Economic, Infrastructure) Future expansion efforts or projects will follow historic planning factors and trends (Information, Infrastructure, Social) Stakeholders value burial space over the construction of monuments which do not commemorate an individual (Social, Political) Alternative methods and structures for burial will be desirable for veterans and families (Social) The VA will support and have the capability to absorb the increased population of veterans (Political, Economic, Infrastructure, Military) The rate of veterans served by ANC will remain consistent based on recent yearly averages and operational capacity (Information) The rate of those who are killed in action will not change significantly (Military, Information) Burial trends and preferences will remain consistent with historic averages (Social, Information) Those veterans who are killed in action and/or are recipients of the Medal of Honor and their families will prefer in-ground burials (Social) Time is a key constraint (regarding the cemetery’s capacity and longevity, decision-making, implementation, etc.) (Political, Economic) Some eligibility criteria is currently based in law, while others are not (Most of ANC’s eligibility policy is currently determined by the Secretary of the Army) (Political, Social) Physical: contiguous space near ANC is finite and costly (some land is currently in use and all of it is owned by different Government agencies or other groups) (Infrastructure, Economic, Political, Social) Funding amounts and/or limits will constrain expansion options (i.e. for the proposed Southern Expansion Project) (Economic) ANC’s operational capacity constrains the rate of interments/inurnments (Infrastructure, Economic, Social) The available technology limits the options for interment/inurnment at ANC (i.e. burial operations, burial techniques, potential developments over time) (Information, Economic, Social)