This Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted by telephone May 9-14, 2017, among a random sample of 1,602 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including landline and cell phone respondents with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 points. The error margin is six points among the sample of 351 likely Democratic voters in the Democratic primary for governor, and seven points among the sample of 264 likely Republican primary voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Cambridge, Mass. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) RV=Registered voters LV=Likely voters 1. First, do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as governor? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 5/14/17 8/14/16 -------- Approve ------NET Strongly Somewhat 49 19 30 53 22 31 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 25 11 14 31 13 18 No opinion 26 16 Compare to: Bob McDonnell: 9/22/13 5/2/13 9/16/12 5/2/12 5/4/11 RV RV RV RV RV -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 49 13 36 64 19 44 58 24 34 58 18 40 64 23 41 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 39 22 17 27 14 13 27 13 14 36 19 16 26 12 13 No opinion 11 9 15 7 11 Tim Kaine: 5/4/11* 10/25/09 LV 10/7/09 LV 9/17/09 LV 8/14/09 9/21/08 RV 10/8/07 All 10/12/06 LV -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 58 24 34 58 23 35 60 25 36 59 27 33 56 21 34 66 NA NA 63 77 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 30 14 15 38 17 21 37 19 19 38 17 22 36 18 18 25 NA NA 25 19 No opinion 12 4 2 2 8 9 12 4 *2011: “Thinking back to when Tim Kaine was governor, would say you approve or disapprove of the way Kaine handled his job as governor?” Mark Warner: -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 80 NA NA 76 NA NA 10/26/05 LV 9/9/05 RV ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 17 NA NA 22 NA NA No opinion 3 2 Jim Gilmore: ---------Approve--------NET Strongly Somewhat 62 25 37 57 NA NA 70 25 45 10/25/01 LV 8/23/01 RV 8/27/00 RV --------Disapprove-----NET Strongly Somewhat 33 18 16 36 NA NA 20 8 12 No opin. 5 7 10 George Allen: 10/21/97 9/16/97 RV ---------Approve--------NET Strongly Somewhat 66 NA NA 67 NA NA --------Disapprove------NET Somewhat Strongly 27 NA NA 26 NA NA No opin. 6 7 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 5/14/17 -------- Approve ------NET Strongly Somewhat 36 20 16 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 59 8 52 No opinion 5 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 53 10 43 No opinion 5 Compare to national: -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 4/20/17* 42 27 15 *Washington Post-ABC News 3. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following this year’s governor’s race in the state of Virginia: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all? 5/14/17 10/27/13 9/22/13 5/2/13 10/25/09 10/7/09 9/17/09 8/14/09 8/14/09 10/26/05 9/9/05 9/9/05 8/23/01 8/27/00 RV RV RV RV LV LV LV LV RV LV LV RV RV RV ---- Closely ----NET Very Smwt. 56 15 40 79 33 46 68 25 44 48 10 38 89 39 50 87 33 54 84 34 51 67 25 42 48 17 32 87 31 56 73 20 53 59 15 44 60 16 44 61 21 40 ---- Not closely ----NET Not so At all 44 20 24 21 10 10 31 19 12 52 27 25 11 9 2 13 11 2 15 12 4 32 23 9 51 30 21 13 10 2 27 20 7 41 26 15 39 26 13 38 25 13 No opinion * * * * * * * 1 * * * * 1 * 2 6/23/94 RV 74 27 47 27 18 9 * 2/3/94 73 27 46 27 18 9 * 9/93 RV 68 21 47 31 21 10 * *2009 and earlier: Would you say you are following this year’s governor’s race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? 4. (AMONG DEMOCRATIC-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances you will vote in the Democratic primary election for governor in June - are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 5/14/17 RV Certain to vote 53 Probably vote 24 Chances 50/50 15 Less than that 6 Don't think will vote (vol.) 1 Already voted (vol.) * No op. 1 5. (AMONG REPUBLICAN-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS) I’d like you to rate the chances you will vote in the Republican primary election for governor in June - are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 5/14/17 RV Certain to vote 46 Probably vote 22 Chances 50/50 20 Less than that 9 Don't think will vote (vol.) 3 Already voted (vol.) 0 No op. * 6. (AMONG DEMOCRATIC-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS) If the Democratic primary election were held today and the candidates for governor were (Ralph Northam) and (Tom Perriello), for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 5/14/17 RV 5/14/17 LV Ralph Northam 29 38 Tom Perriello 35 40 Other (vol.) 1 1 Neither (vol.) 7 3 Would not vote (vol.) 2 0 No opinion 27 18 7. (AMONG REPUBLICAN-LEANING REGISTERED VOTERS) If the Republican primary election were held today and the candidates for governor were (Ed Gillespie), (Corey Stewart) and (Frank Wagner), for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 5/14/17 RV 5/14/17 LV Ed Gillespie 37 38 Corey Stewart 12 18 Frank Wagner 13 15 Other (vol.) 1 * None (vol.) 7 5 Would not vote (vol.) 4 0 No opinion 26 24 [Order of questions 8 and 9 randomly rotated] 8. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Thinking about the general election for governor in November, if the candidates were (Ralph Northam, the Democrat) and (Ed Gillespie, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Northam, the Democrat) or toward (Gillespie, the Republican)? 5/14/17 RV Ralph Northam 49 Ed Gillespie 38 Other (vol.) * Neither (vol.) 2 Would not vote (vol.) 2 No opinion 9 3 9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How about if the candidates were (Tom Perriello, the Democrat) and (Ed Gillespie, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Perriello, the Democrat) or toward (Gillespie, the Republican)? 5/14/17 RV Tom Perriello 50 Ed Gillespie 37 Other (vol.) * Neither (vol.) 2 Would not vote (vol.) 2 No opinion 9 10. (AMONG LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS) Thinking about Democratic primary candidates (Ralph Northam) and (Tom Perriello), who do you think (ITEM)? 5/14/17 – Summary Table among Democratic likely voters Ralph Northam a. Has the best chance of winning against a Republican in the general election b. Has higher personal and ethical standards c. Would do more to stand up against Donald Trump d. Would do a better job working with Republicans in the state legislature e. Would do a better job handling the state economy f. Better reflects the core values of the Democratic Party Tom Perriello Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion 36 36 3 1 25 31 32 6 1 30 30 38 10 2 21 38 31 2 2 27 33 36 1 1 29 32 35 6 1 26 11. (AMONG LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS) Thinking about Republican primary candidates (Ed Gillespie), (Corey Stewart) and (Frank Wagner), who do you think (ITEM)? 5/14/17 – Summary Table among Republican likely voters a. Has the best chance winning against a Democrat in the general election b. Would do the most to support Donald Trump c. Best represents your views on whether Virginia should keep statues honoring Confederate Civil War leaders Ed Gillespie Corey Stewart Frank Wagner All (vol.) None (vol.) No op. 60 7 9 1 1 22 37 14 12 1 3 34 26 11 8 * 1 54 [Order of questions 12 and 13 randomly rotated] 12. (AMONG LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS) As you may know, Vermont and Massachusetts Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have endorsed Tom Perriello, for governor. Does this make you more likely or less likely to support Perriello? 5/14/17 LV More likely 57 Less likely 15 No difference (vol.) 23 No opinion 5 4 13. (AMONG LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS) Governor Terry McAuliffe and nearly all Virginia Democrats in Congress and the state legislature have endorsed Ralph Northam for governor. Does this make you more likely or less likely to support Northam? 5/14/17 LV More likely 50 Less likely 17 No difference (vol.) 27 No opinion 5 14. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think it is appropriate or inappropriate for candidates for governor to accept campaign contributions from Dominion Power, Virginia’s main electric company? 5/14/17 RV Appropriate 26 Inappropriate 66 No opinion 8 15. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you support or oppose the bill passed by Republicans in Congress last week that replaces parts of the 2010 health care law known as the Affordable Care Act or Obamacare? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 5/14/17 RV ---------Support--------NET Strongly Somewhat 34 19 15 ---------Oppose---------NET Somewhat Strongly 58 10 49 No opinion 8 16. (AMONG THOSE IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA) How would you rate the Metro rail subway system in the Washington D.C. region? 5/14/17 -----Positive-----NET Excel. Good 43 5 38 -----Negative-----NET Not so Poor 45 28 17 Never use 9 No op. 3 Compare to: I would like you to rate some types of public transportation available in some parts of the greater Washington area. If you have NEVER USED this type of public transportation, just tell me and I will move on. Generally speaking, how would you rate the Metrorail subway system: Trends among Northern Virginia residents: 6/23/13 3/29/10 1/31/05 -----Positive-----NET Excel. Good 73 14 59 75 15 60 69 20 49 -----Negative-----NET Not so Poor 14 10 4 15 12 3 9 7 2 Never use 12 10 21 No op. 1 * * 17. Thinking about the Metro rail subway system in the Washington D.C. area...Metro and many elected officials say the agency needs more funding to make the rail and bus system safe and reliable. Would you support or oppose [ITEM]? 5/14/17 – Summary table among Northern Virginia residents a. Increasing funding for Metro from Maryland, Virginia and D.C., paid for by raising taxes or cutting other programs b. Increasing fares for riding Metro trains and buses c. Reducing the frequency of Metro trains and buses d. Creating a new sales tax in the D.C. region that Support Oppose No opinion 45 42 22 48 52 69 7 6 9 5 would directly fund Metro e. A new property tax on buildings and homes located close to Metro rail stations 53 40 8 34 57 9 5/14/17 Summary table among all Virginia residents*: Support Oppose No opinion a. Increasing funding for Metro from Maryland, Virginia and D.C., paid for by raising taxes or cutting other programs 38 51 10 d. Creating a new sales tax in the D.C. region that would directly fund Metro 57 30 13 *items b, c and e not asked statewide; items a & d of Northern Virginia and a half sample statewide Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or what? 5/14/17 10/30/16 8/14/16 10/27/13 9/22/13 5/2/13 10/26/12 9/16/12 5/2/12 Democrat 34 30 31 32 33 28 31 32 31 Republican 24 24 21 24 24 26 23 24 25 Independent 33 36 37 31 33 33 36 35 36 Other 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 5 5 No op. 3 5 3 7 5 4 3 4 2 ***END*** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government. The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish and is a random sample of Virginia adult residents. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact they appear in this document. Voter registration, demographics, religious questions and religious attendance are not shown. If a question was asked base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the order as identity of a reduced group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by “RV” indicate results among registered voters, with “LV” indicating likely voters and other results are among adults overall. A dual frame landline and cellular phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures. Interviewers called landline and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 641 interviews completed on landlines and 961 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 530 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users according to National Health Interview Survey commonwealth-level estimates for Virginia. Results are also weighted match the demographic makeup of the population according to the latest 6 Current Population Survey Social and Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education and region of the commonwealth. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.3 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All adults Registered Registered Registered Likely Dem Likely Rep voters Democrats/Lean Dem Republicans/Lean Rep primary voters primary voters Unweighted sample size 1,602 1,395 654 567 351 264 Error margin +/- 3 points 3 4.5 4.5 6 7 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. 7