WASHINGTON STATE Wire Survey of Likely Voters City of Seattle – 2017 Mayor’s Race Fielded June 15-18, 2017 Survey conducted by Wilson Strategic on behalf of the Washington State Wire WASHINGTON STATE Wire Methodology: This survey was conducted from Thursday June 15 to Sunday June 18, 2017. It used IVR polling technology on a random population of voters in the City of Seattle that had voted in three of four primary and general elections held in 2015 and 2013. Only land lines were called. Respondents were asked to express their intent to vote in the August primary. If they were unsure about their intent to vote, or declared an intent to note vote in the primary, the call was terminated. With 475 completed calls, the responses have a +/- 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence rate. This poll was conducted by Wilson Strategic, a strategy and public affairs firm, on behalf of the Washington State Wire. This survey asked about 6 candidates among 21 in the race: Cary Moon, Mike McGinn, Nikkita Oliver, Jenny Durkan, Jessyn Farrell, and Bob Hasegawa. They were asked in order of their appearance on the primary ballot. Conducting a survey about the details of all candidates was prohibitive due to the nature of IVR polling and declining respondent participation rates as the length of IVR surveys grows. Given the complex nature of a 21-person race for the Seattle Mayor, this survey should be used as one data point among others to determine with high confidence the direction of Seattle voters ahead of the August primary. Summary of findings: 1. Jenny Durkan has a solid lead among candidates heading into the primary. She was viewed favorably by 49.7% of the respondents, and was named the first choice of 30.1% of voters. Only Bob Hasegawa was viewed favorably by a comparable amount of respondents (40.0%). 2. The field to be the second candidate through the primary is wide open. Bob Hasegawa is the first choice among voters with 8.8%, ahead of Mike McGinn with 6.3% and Cary Moon with 4.0%. Among respondents, 28.4% were “unsure” about their first choice for mayor, and 16.6% did not answer. Combined, that is 45% of respondents that are unwilling to publicly voice support for a candidate. 3. If Ed Murray were to get back in the race, and no other candidates were to exit the race, he would likely make it through the primary. Among respondents, 21.5% said they would switch their vote from their first choice to Ed Murray in the primary. 4. If Nikkita Oliver were to exit the race ahead of the primary, 27% of her voters say they would switch to Mike McGinn. That amount appears to be enough that McGinn would make it through the primary over Bob Hasegawa, though the difference is within the margin of error of this poll. WASHINGTON STATE Wire COMPLETE POLL TOPLINE RESULTS Seattle Mayor’s Race Survey – Likely Voters Total Completions: 475 Margin of Error: +/- 4.0%, 95% confidence Conducted June 15-18, 2017 Good evening. My name is XXX and I’m with WashingtonStateWire.com, a political news site for Washington State. We’re conducting a poll on the Seattle Mayor’s race, and I was hoping to get your feedback. My questions will take about 4 minutes of your time, and I would be happy to share our results with you by email. Would you be willing to answer 4 minutes of questions for me on the mayor’s race? Press any button to continue, or you can hang up if you’d like. 1. First, let me ask, do you plan to vote in the August primary election for Seattle mayor? A. B. C. D. Yes No Unsure Didn’t Answer 90.5% 4.8% (terminate) 3.6% (terminate) 0.8% (terminate) Great. Let’s move on. There are 21 candidates running for Seattle mayor this year. I want to ask you about 6 of those candidates. Tell me if you have a positive or negative opinion about any of these candidates. 2. First, Cary Moon is a small business owner and advocated against the waterfront tunnel. Press 1 if you have a favorable opinion of Cary Moon, 2, if you have an unfavorable opinion of Cary Moon, or 3 if you have no opinion or are neutral. A. B. C. D. Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Didn’t Answer 20.6% 24.2% 41.1% 13.7% 3. Mike McGinn is a former mayor and advocate for increased environmental stewardship. Press 1 if you have a favorable opinion of Mike McGinn, 2, if you have an unfavorable opinion of Mike McGinn, or 3 if you have no opinion or are neutral. A. B. C. D. Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Didn’t Answer 26.7% 46.1% 12.4% 14.5% WASHINGTON STATE Wire 4. Nikkita Oliver is a community advocate and educator focused on issues affecting low and middle-income households. Press 1 if you have a favorable opinion of Nikkita Oliver, 2, if you have an unfavorable opinion of Nikkita Oliver, or 3 if you have no opinion or are neutral. A. B. C. D. Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Didn’t Answer 21.9% 24.4% 38.7% 14.7% 5. Jenny Durkan is a former US Attorney who worked on police reform at the City of Seattle. Press 1 if you have a favorable opinion of Jenny Durkan, 2, if you have an unfavorable opinion of Jenny Durkan, or 3 if you have no opinion or are neutral. A. B. C. D. Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Didn’t Answer 49.7% 12.4% 22.9% 14.7% 6. Jessyn Farrell is a former legislator and advocate for multi-modal transportation solutions. Press 1 if you have a favorable opinion of Jessyn Farrell, 2, if you have an unfavorable opinion of Jessyn Farrell, or 3 if you have no opinion or are neutral. A. B. C. D. Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Didn’t Answer 15.8% 20.8% 48% 15.2% 7. Bob Hasegawa is a current state senator and advocate for working families and labor reform. Press 1 if you have a favorable opinion of Bob Hasegawa, 2, if you have an unfavorable opinion of Bob Hasegawa, or 3 if you have no opinion or are neutral. A. B. C. D. Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Didn’t Answer 40% 12% 32.2% 15.6% 8. If the election were held today, who do you think you would vote for? If you would vote for Cary Moon, press one. If you would vote for Mike McGinn, press 2. If you would vote for Nikkita Oliver, press 3. If you would vote for Jenny Durkan, press 4. If you would vote for Jessyn Farrell, press 5. If you would vote for Bob Hasegawa, press 6. If you are unsure how you would vote or if you would vote for a different candidate, press 7. A. B. C. D. Cary Moon Mike McGinn Nikkita Oliver Jenny Durkan 4% 6.3% 3.4% 30.1% WASHINGTON STATE Wire E. F. G. H. Jessyn Farrell Bob Hasegawa Unsure Didn’t Answer 2.1% 8.8% 28.4% 16.6% 9. If your first choice were not on the ballot for some reason, which candidate would be your second choice? If your second choice is Cary Moon, press one. If your second choice is Mike McGinn, press 2. If your second choice is Nikkita Oliver, press 3. If your second choice is Jenny Durkan, press 4. If your second choice is Jessyn Farrell, press 5. If you would vote for Bob Hasegawa, press 6. If you are unsure how you would vote or if you would vote for a different candidate, press 7. A. B. C. D. E. F. G. H. Cary Moon Mike McGinn Nikkita Oliver Jenny Durkan Jessyn Farrell Bob Hasegawa Unsure Didn’t Answer 5.3% 10.5% 4.4% 9.9% 6.7% 9.7% 35% 18.3% 10. As you may know, Ed Murray has decided not to run for re-election as mayor of Seattle. If he were running for re-election in the August primary, would you vote for Ed Murray? If you would vote for Ed Murray in the August primary instead of your previous choice, press 1. If you would stick with your previous choice, press 2. If you are unsure, press 3. A. B. C. D. Ed Murray Previous Choice Unsure Didn’t Answer 21.5% 45.9% 13.5% 19% 11. This is our last question. Can you tell me who you voted for in the 2016 presidential race? If you voted for Hillary Clinton, press 1. If you voted for Donald Trump, press 2. If you voted for a third-party candidate, press 3. If you didn’t vote or don’t want to share, press 4 A. B. C. D. E. Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Third Candidate Didn’t Vote/Not Sharing Didn’t Answer 61.5% 6.9% 4.6% 6.7% 20% 12. Thank you. That is all we need. If you would like to receive the results of this survey, I would be happy to send the results to you by email. Please tell me your email address, spelling it out for me. Thank you. This completes our call. 35 WASHINGTON STATE Wire Cross-tab analysis from Question 9 above. Cary Moon Mike McGinn Nikkita Oliver Jennyr Durkan Jessyn Farrell Bob Hasegawa Unsure/No Answer Cary Moon 7.1% 0.0% 35.7% 7.1% 0.0% 50.0% Mike McGinn 13.0% 13.0% 13.0% 17.4% 21.7% 21.7% Nikkita Oliver 18.2% 27.3% 0.0% 9.0% 18.2% 27.3% Jenny Durkan 5.0% 18.2% 3.3% 14.0% 20.7% 38.8% Jessyn Farrell 11.1% 11.1% 22.2% 0.00% 22.2% 33.3% Bob Hasegawa 8.1% 13.5% 10.8% 16.2% 18.9% 32.4% Unsure/No Answer 13.2% 28.9% 7.9% 28.9% 2.6% 18.4%