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Foundations of Nuclear Power

EPRI OURNAL

ELECTRIC

POWER RESEARCH

INSTITUTE

JULY/AUGUST
1978

 EPRI JOURNAL is published by the
Electric Power Research Institute.
EPRI was founded in 1972 by the nation's
electric utilities to develop and manage a
technology program for improving electric
power production, distribution, and utilization.
EPRI JOURNAL Staff and Contributors
Brent Barker, Editor
Ralph Whitaker, Feature Editor
Stan Terra, Feature Writer
Jenny Hopkinson, Technical Editor
John Kenton, Nuclear Editor
Susan Yessne, Production Editor
Pauline Burnett, Copy Chief
David Dietrich, Copy Editor
Jim Norris, Illustrator
Barry Sulpor, Pat Streib (News Bureau)
Marie Newman (Washington)
Graphics Consultant: Frank A. Rodriquez
Robert A. Sandberg, Director
Ray Schuster, Assistant Director
Communications Division
© 1978 by Electric Power Research Institute, Inc.
Permission to reprint is granted by EPRI.
Information on bulk reprints available on request.
Address correspondence to:
Editor
EPRI JOURNAL
Electric Power Research Institute
P.O. Box 10412
3412 Hillview Avenue
Palo Alto, California 94303

Cover: The first four decades of nuclear power
recorded from the Navy's propulsion reactors
to today's electricity-generating reactors.

 EPRIJOURNAL

Volume 3, Number 6

Editorial

2

No Real Alternative

Features

6

The Birth and Early History of Nuclear Power
Technology is reviewed from its inception through a host of reactor
concepts to today.

Departments

July/ August 1978

16

Research Arms of Congress
Congress draws on four of its own agencies to supply information and
analyses for making energy decisions.

22

CO2 and Spaceship Earth
Scientists disagree over the long-range effects of increasing concentrations
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

28

The Electricity Future: What Can You Believe?
Renewable energy resources are costly to concentrate into generation
fuels. Making them competitive will take time.

32

Louis Austin: Down-Home Realist
The chief executive of Texas Utilities Company lets fly at some pet targets.

4
36
38
41

Authors and Articles
At the Institute
Project Highlights
Washington Report

R&D STATUS REPORTS

Technical Review
43

Fossil Fuel and Advanced Systems Division

50

Nuclear Power Division
Electrical Systems Division

54
58
61

Energy Analysis and Environment Division
New Technical Reports

 No Real Alternative

It took over six centuries from the invention of gunpowder in
China to the harnessing of explosives for useful purposes, such
as construction or mining. Yet it took only six and a half years
from the first nuclear explosion at Alamogordo on July 16,
1945, to the first generation of electricity by fission power on
December 20, 1951, by the experimental breeder reactor. We
should take pride in this swift forging of plowshares. But
perhaps it is just because we succeeded so quickly that
opponents of nuclear power are unable to separate the image and terror of the
mushroom cloud from the peacetime use of atomic energy to generate electric power.
We certainly have a better perspective today than two decades ago when many
were pushing atomic energy as a panacea. In the late 1950s, so favorable and
glamorous was the public image of nuclear energy that a Wall Street Journal reporter
observed, "All that a company had to do if it wanted to move its stock up a point or two
on the market was to issue a press release announcing that it had hired a nuclear
physicist-the reaction was automatic."
In the late 1970s we have departed so far from that point that we find some
people embarked on an antinuclear crusade, disrupting the orderly buildup of a proven,
needed technology that can generate electric power by the cheapest, cleanest means
available today. They overlook the fact that in the brief 24 years since the start of a
nonmilitary nuclear program, nuclear power has become an important contributor to this
nation's total electricity generation, contributing more than all our hydropower dams.
Further, during this period we have accumulated 275 plant-years of safe experience with
central-station-type civilian reactors.
We should now ask, what are our energy needs and will curtailment of nuclear
power development and use have disastrous effects on our country? Central to the
question is our large and growing dependence on foreign oil. Last year we imported $45
billion in oil to satisfy about one-third of our total energy requirements. This resulted in a
net imbalance of payments sufficiently high to seriously weaken the dollar in the
international money markets and to diminish our foreign policy independence. In effect,
jobs are flowing overseas in exchange for oil. At best this is a precarious balance, and
one effort to stabilize the situation has been a call for utilities to convert to alternative
fuels.
Should we delay, we aggravate the situation. Last year the Federal Power
Commission warned of the "distinct possibility" of electricity shortages as early as 1979
and "almost certainly" by the mid-1980s; Mitre Corp. foresees shortfalls that could
reach critical proportions in some regions by 1985. The demand for increased power
generation is already built in. Even if we strive for zero population growth, children
already born mean more households and increases in the labor force that in turn will
require more power. Inadequate power will mean fewer jobs; reduced income and
frustrated ambitions; curtailed and more costly transportation for people and for goods,
thus built-in rising prices for almost every commodity on the market. Proponents of
2

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1978

 nuclear power believe that without nuclear power the nation will face massive and
restrictive power shortages in coming decades.
To visualize this bleak projection, we need only remember the recent past.
What would have happened during the last two unusually harsh eastern winters if nuclear
power had not been available to help avert a crisis? When riverborne oil barges and utility
plant coal piles were frozen and the fuel shortage was compounded by the four-month
coal strike, it was the nuclear plants with their built-in year's fuel supply that helped to
save one-third of the nation from unheated homes in subfreezing weather, electrified
transport at a standstill, and hospitals without power.
Some ask why our increased energy needs can't be supplied by other new
technologies. Just three years ago Robert Seamans answered this question at the EEi
annual convention: "The public needs to know that there is not a viable alternative to
nuclear power. Too often we hear from a segment of the public that we ought to forgo
nuclear power and go directly to solar energy and fusion. The public must realize that
significant quantities of any of the options are at least several decades off, and further,
large additional funding of the programs now will not advance significantly the timetable.
Even with accelerated production, coal alone cannot be expected to satisfy the nation's
growing need for energy over the next several decades. The remainder of the need must
be filled by nuclear."
In order for nuclear to make up the energy deficit, certain measures are
urgently needed at this time. One is a demonstration of our ability to safely dispose of
waste. While it is true that we cannot yet point to a waste-vitrification facility in the
United States and say, "Look, here it is, it works, it's safe," we can say that about a
facility that has been operating for four years at Marcoule in France (where a second,
commercial-size plant went into operation last month). We too have the technology, but
because of the low priority assigned by the government, we have not been able to
demonstrate that technology.
Another problem is the delay in licensing. We must return to a rational lead­
time in building nuclear power plants. As an example of the time we are losing, only
three months ago an American reactor vendor started up a 1100-MW nuclear plant in
Japan 6% years after beginning the licensing process. A plant in the United States by the
same vendor is currently scheduled to start up after 13% years, 7% years behind the
original schedule.
Perhaps the most pressing need is an educational effort that recognizes the
reasons some fear atomic energy, explains the difference between military hardware and
the generation of electric power, and presents the evidence for our conviction that
nuclear power is the cleanest, safest, and cheapest form of energy among today's
technologies.

Milton Levenson, Director
Nuclear Power Division
EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

3

 Authors and Articles

F

or those of us who mentally catalog
nuclear reactors simply as PWRs or
BWRs, the utility inventory of nuclear
power plants is one of evident order. But
these grow on a family tree that has many
roots and has at times grown like a tan­
gled vine. Dozens of other varieties have
risen in scientific seedbeds, been grafted
and hybridized-only to be pruned by
technical or economic shears or to die
back from policy malnutrition.
In "The Birth and Early History of
Nuclear Power" (page 6), John Kenton
traces the development of our familiar
PWRs and BWRs, competitors since they
first raised steam for power only two
years apart. As the Journal's nuclear edi­
tor, Kenton easily comes by his knowl­
edge of this historical evolution. He was
an editor of Nucleonics from 1955 to 1967,
and also of Nucleonics Week from its begin­
ning until 1967. He followed the nuclear
power industry thereafter on the staffs of
Scientific Research and Nuclear Industry,
before coming to EPRI in 1976.

O

•

ne of the forces that nurtures the
various energy technologies is
national energy policy, conceived by the
White House but shaped and given au­
thority by Congress. That policy reflects,
among other things, the collected U.S.
political, economic, technical, and social
data housed in national libraries.
The "Research Arms of Congress"
(page 16) reach into these resources for
facts and digests, precedents and opin-

4

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1978

ions, and even for original research. Who
they are and what distinguishes the
strengths and skills of those congres­
sional agencies is explained by Marie
Newman of EPRI's Washington Office.

M

•

auna Loa volcano on the island of
Hawaii is speaking today in a
quiet voice that demands our attention.
There, on a slope 11,150 feet above the
Pacific and 2200 miles southwest of the
mainland United States, a meteorological
station registers the rising atmospheric
concentration of carbon dioxide.
The 20-year record is incontrovertible.
And it also exhibits a seasonal pulse.
Why? What mechanisms are at work?
How fast? What do they mean for civi­
lization? "CO2 and Spaceship Earth"
(page 22), by Stan Terra, surveys the
scientific facts and opinions that are
only now beginning to coalesce.
Before joining the Journal staff two
years ago, Terra spent 18 years interview­
ing scientific, business, university, and
government figures. He has reported for
Time and Business Week, and at one time
he covered government affairs from
Washington, D.C., for a group of daily
newspapers. In his research into CO 2,
Terra found scientists who differ in their
assessments. He also found uniform
recognition that CO 2 is a pervasive by­
product of worldwide energy uses and
agricultural practices. Mauna Loa's per­
sistent voice clearly calls for a new re­
search priority.

T

he oil barrel isn't empty, but other
resources will take time to develop,
and some of the new ones are going to be
expensive to concentrate into useful
form. Understanding these points influ­
ences one's view of national energy prior­
ities and the technological avenues to
follow. Chauncey Starr puts all of them
into the context of "The Electricity Fu­
ture: What Can You Believe?" (page 28),
which asks-and answers-a question
often put to utilities. Formerly president
and now vice chairman of EPRI, Starr
wrote the article as a speech before the
Commonwealth Club of California in
San Francisco last May.

W

hen EPRI's Board of Directors
convenes, its agenda is filled with
facts, policy options, and recommenda­
tions from EPRI management. When the
Board adjourns, that agenda has been
distilled into corporate resolutions that
sustain the lnstitute's R&D programs.
Whatever the agenda during the last
four years, it got the full attention of
"Louis Austin: Down-Home Realist"
(page 32). After leaving the Board last
May, the chief executive of Texas Utili­
ties talked at length with the Journal's
Stan Terra, stating opinions that some­
times register at a simmering tempera­
ture, sometimes at a boil, and occa­
sionally at the level of a Texas barbecue.

  

Kenton

Starr

 

Terra

EPRI JOURNAL July/August1978 5

 

 

 

L

by John E. Kenton

THJEJBIRTH
f5 JEARJLY
HISTORY OJF
NUCJLJEAR
JrOVVJER
A decade of work on nonmilitary uses
preceded the first token generation of
electricity by a reactor in the Idaho
desert in 1951. The technology has
since come a long way.

eicester, England, 1933. Sir Ernest
Rutherford, one of the greatest
contributors to our understanding
of atomic structure, stood before the
British Association for the Advancement
of Science and declared: "The energy
produced by the breaking down of the
atom is a very poor kind of thing. Any­
one who expects a source of power from
the transformation of these atoms is
talking moonshine."
Only 25 years later, Lewis Strauss,
second chairman of the U.S. Atomic
Energy Commission, asserted that nu­
clear power would make electricity so
cheap it would not be worthwhile to
meter it.
It appears that nuclear power has
been so fundamentally new to our ex­
perience that even experts are led into
extremes of thought and comment. Yet
in less than 50 years, nuclear generation
of electric power has been transformed
from "moonshine" into the source for
12% of the electricity used in the United
States. Following Lord Rutherford's
1933 statement, a series of interesting
and rapid technological and political
developments took place that gave us
the nuclear reactors in use today.
Fertile imaginations

The majority of the world's electric
power reactors are based on prototypes
developed by the U.S. Navy, whose
scientists were the first to grasp the
potential of the controlled use of nuclear
power. Ross Gunn, technical advisor to
the director of the Naval Research Labo­
ratory, saw the implications as far back
as January 1939, when Niels Bohr and
Enrico Fermi reported to the 5th Wash­
ington (D.C.) Conference on Theoretical
Physics the startling news that Otto
Hahn and Fritz Strassman in Berlin had
split the uranium nucleus, releasing a
significant amount of energy. Two
months later Fermi briefed the Navy

John Kenton is nuclear editor in the Communications
Division of EPRI.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

7

 In the remote desert of southern
Idaho, EBR-1 powered light bulbs
to demonstrate the first production
of nuclear power harnessed for
peacefu I purposes.

 Department. While most of the naval
staff present were thinking in terms of a
weapon, Gunn was pondering the feasi­
bility and potential of a nuclear propul­
sion engine that could power a sub­
marine. Because a nuclear engine would
require no oxygen, the ship would be
liberated from the surface, except for
reprovisioning.
On November 1, 1939, President
Roosevelt's Advisory Committee on
Uranium reported that a chain reaction
was possible. "If it could be achieved
and controlled," the report continued,
"it might supply power for submarines.
If the reaction should be explosive, it
would provide a possible source of
bombs with a destructiveness vastly
greater than anything now known."
Gunn immediately contacted Merle
Tuve of the Carnegie Institution, and a
program to study the idea of nuclear­
powered submarines was set up with
$1500 in Navy funds. In 1940 Tuve re­
ported that submarine propulsion ap­
peared more practical at that moment
than an atomic bomb.
The Navy maintained its interest in
propulsion throughout World War II,
even though early in the war the deci­
sion was made to go for the weapon
first. The atomic bomb project was as­
signed to the Army. In the summer of
1942, with General Leslie R. Groves in
charge, the A-bomb organization, code­
named the Manhattan Engineering Dis­
trict (MED), was established.
The story of MED and its feverish
race to fabricate an atomic bomb before
the Nazis has often been told. While
MED was concentrating the nation's
best scientific talent on the awesome
problems of mastering an unknown
science, the concept of harnessing nu­
clear power for peaceful purposes con­
tinued to occupy farsighted minds.
Fermi himself wrote that even as his
team of physicists was shutting down
the Stagg Field pile on December 2,
1942, the day the world's first controlled
chain reaction was achieved, "We all
hoped that with the end of the war em­
phasis would be shifted decidedly from

the weapon to the peaceful aspects of
atomic energy."
For about a decade following the
Stagg Field experiment, all reactors were
called piles. The original pile, built un­
der the west stand of the Stagg Field
stadium of the University of Chicago,
was exactly that: a stack of graphite
bricks piled in a large cube, with ura­
nium buttons spaced at intervals in each
layer. Later, as the configuration of
chain-reacting devices diverged increas­
ingly from the simple pile, the term
reactor was borrowed from the chemical
industry, where it denotes a vessel in
which a reaction is made to take place.
Earliest concepts

By 1944, a year before the war ended, at
least five major reactor concepts were
being considered.
Farrington Daniels, a University of
Wisconsin chemist working in Chicago
in MED's Metallurgical Laboratory (a
screen, as its work was mostly in nuclear
physics and chemistry), was planning a
high-temperature power pile cooled by
helium gas. On the recommendation of
General Groves's Advisory Committee
on R&D, Daniels and his team were later
moved from the Met Lab (forerunner of
Argonne National Laboratory) to Clin­
ton Laboratories (forerunner of Oak
Ridge National Laboratory).
Also at the Met Lab, Walter Zinn
conceived a reactor that would breed
more fissionable material than it con­
sumed. This rabbits-from-a-hat trick
would be accomplished by surrounding
the chain-reacting core of a reactor with
a blanket of natural uranium or thorium.
Neither the uranium-238 isotope, which
is the preponderant (99.3%) constituent
of natural uranium, nor thorium-232 is
fissionable; however, when exposed to a
field of free neutrons, the nuclei of both
uranium-238 and thorium-232 will
absorb a neutron. As a result of this
neutron capture, nonfissionable tho­
rium-232 is naturally transmuted to
uranium-233, which is fissionable; and
nonfissionable uranium-238 is trans­
muted to plutonium-239, also fission-

able. The hope was that during opera­
tion, more fissionable material would be
created in the reactor blanket than was
"burned" in the reactor core. Hence the
term breeder.
By the end of 1945 Zinn was deter­
mined to try to build a fast-neutron,
liquid-metal-cooled breeder pile, using
highly enriched uranium (mostly fis­
sionable uranium-235) in the core, with
a natural uranium blanket to breed
plutonium.
At Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory,
Philip Morrison was working up a pro­
posal to build a IO-kW fast-neutron pile
using plutonium fuel.
A fast-neutron pile is one that does
not use a moderator-the material
placed in the reactor core to cushion and
absorb some of the very high energy of
neutrons at the moment of their release
from a fissioned nucleus. With certain
nuclear fuels, omitting the moderator
increases the probability of further fis­
sions to maintain the chain reaction.
(Graphite was the moderator in the
Stagg Field pile and in other early piles.)
At Clinton Laboratories, a radically
different kind of pile was conceived-a
pile in which the fuel would be in a ho­
mogeneous state, such as a solution of
uranium-235 salts in water. Unlike the
more common heterogeneous pile in
which the fuel is in the form of discrete
metal strips, rods, or cartridges, and a
liquid or gaseous coolant is pumped past
it to pick up its heat and carry it to a
heat exchanger, the homogeneous pile
circulates the fluid fuel itself. The fuel is
allowed to become critical (i.e., chain­
reacting) in a spherical tank whose ge­
ometry permits enough of the fuel solu­
tion to gather to form a critical mass.
The reaction heats the solution, which is
pumped out of the tank through narrow
pipes in which it becomes subcritical, is
passed through a heat exchanger (which
boils water to steam), and is returned to
the tank. The Clinton group proposed a
10-MW demonstration of this type of
reactor, but it was to be 1950 before a
smaller homogeneous reactor pilot plant
was approved.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

9

 From the Naval Research Laboratory
(NRL) came still another pile concept;
this one used a novel metal coolant-a
sodium-potassium (NaK) alloy that is
liquid at room temperature.
The NRL concept was the subject of a
March 1946 report by Philip Abelson, a
civilian physicist with the Navy who had
shared Gunn's early vision of nuclear
propulsion. Abelson proposed building
a nuclear-powered submarine in two
years. Vague in many respects, his re­
port is nevertheless the first concrete
proposal in Navy archives for the con­
struction of a nuclear submarine. The
idea of using liquid metal as the heat
transfer medium caught the attention of
an engineering executive at General
Electric Co. and led to a proposal from
that company in May 1946 for a study of
a nuclear-powered destroyer.
So by January 1947, there had been
two years of work and activity on con­
trolled nuclear power.
First project

The first formal power reactor project
was the Daniels pile that was set up by
MED at Clinton Laboratories. In March
1946, Charles A. Thomas of Monsanto
Chemical Co., the operating contractor
for Oak Ridge, proposed that the Navy
participate in a joint government-indus­
try project to build the Daniels pile.
Also early in 1946 General Groves,
then still in charge of everything nu­
clear, suggested that the Navy assign a
few engineering officers to Oak Ridge to
learn the fundamentals of nuclear tech­
nology. This was to prove a key event.
In June 1946 a Navy team of five offi­
cers and three civilian physicists and
engineers arrived in Oak Ridge to learn
nuclear technology, work with the
Daniels group, and lay the groundwork
for a possible nuclear propulsion engine.
The senior officer in the group was an
electrical engineer, Captain Hyman G.
Rickover.
Although the Navy had intentionally
not named him officer-in-charge of the
group because of differences of view
among the leaders of the Navy's Bureau

10

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

of Ships, Rickover soon took charge by
sheer force of personality. The terms of
the team's assignment specified that
each of the five Navy officers would
report to the Army command at Oak
Ridge, but Rickover obtained authoriza­
tion to write his fellow officers' periodic
performance reports and thereby for­
malized his leadership of the team.
The Navy team soon learned that
several of the scientists at Oak Ridge
were unimpressed by the Daniels proj­
ect, primarily because the Daniels
group's technically ambitious plans in­
cluded little systematic effort to define
engineering problems. Rickover worked
tirelessly to master the details of the
arcane new science and insisted on relat­
ing nuclear physics and chemistry to the
specific engineering problems of putting
together a nuclear propulsion engine.
In 1946 Rickover's team heard Alvin
M. Weinberg, leader of the Clinton
physicists, suggest the possibility of
using water under high pressure both as
the heat transfer medium and as the
moderator of a power reactor. The Navy
men saw that for submarine application
a liquid would be better than a gas cool­
ant because it permits greater compact­
ness in the coolant and it eliminates the
bulk and weight of a graphite moderator
stack.
After much competition among con­
cepts and personalities and much project
infighting in MED and in the Navy, the
Daniels project was quietly abandoned
(as Rickover had predicted would hap­
pen). The Navy-with Rickover now
back in Washington, ceaselessly prod­
ding-shortly took action.
The Navy planned to develop and
build a land-based prototype and a sea­
going version of each of the two most
promising reactor concepts: the high­
pressure water type and the liquid­
metal-cooled type. A third type, helium­
cooled with direct-cycle gas turbine, was
also worked on under a contract with
Rickover but was eliminated by 1949.
The first submarine reactor project
was formally established in April 1948
at Argonne National Laboratory. This

was the high-pressure water project;
Westinghouse Electric Corp. was the
prime industrial contractor.
Never one to leave his ace uncovered,
Rickover continued working with Gen­
eral Electric Co. to develop the liquid­
metal reactor as an alternative to the
water reactor. However, the company
was more interested in nonmilitary elec­
tric power than in a nuclear-powered
submarine and wanted to build a liquid­
metal-cooled power breeder as a non­
military power reactor prototype. As the
company continued work on its power
breeder, there was less and less certainty
that the proposed design would indeed
reach threshold conditions for breed­
ing. After protracted negotiations, the
Atomic Energy Commission (successor
to MED) told General Electric in March
1950 that it would not authorize con­
struction. The next month AEC and
General Electric established the liquid­
metal-cooled submarine project, which
included a land-based prototype to be
built at West Milton, New York, and an
identical reactor to be installed in a
submarine.
First civilian power experiments

In 1949 AEC authorized construction of
Zinn's experimental breeder reactor
(EBR) at the National Reactor Testing
Station (now the Idaho National Engi­
neering Laboratory [INEL]), which it had
established in the Idaho desert. Con­
struction began late in 1949, and the
small liquid-metal-cooled fast-neutron
breeder reactor (LMFBR) was completed
in 1951. A 100-kW turbine-generator
was attached, and on December 20, 1951
-only 9 years, 18 days after Fermi's pio­
neering Stagg Field experiment-EBR
became the world's first reactor to pro­
duce net electric power in kilowatt
quantities.
Meanwhile, a group at Los Alamos,
working along the same lines as the Oak
Ridge homogeneous reactor group, built
a small demonstration reactor that was
called the water boiler because an aque­
ous solution of uranium salt was
brought to a boil (this should not be

 At the Idaho reactor testing station,
the prototype nuclear submarine
reactor was built in a simulated
submarine hull within a water tank,
tested, debugged, and proved
before its twin went to sea aboard
the Nautilus.
Nautilus, after sending her famous

message, "Under way on nuclear
power," steamed out of the Groton,
Connecticut , harbor on her first
sea trial-only 17 days past the
target date set 8 years earlier.

 The first core of uranium fuel
elements is lowered into the reactor
vessel at Shippingport. A scale-up
of the Nautilus reactor, this reactor
was originally intended as an aircraft
carrier propulsion plant but was
redesigned and developed for
utility use, becoming the first
commercial-scale nuclear power
plant in the United States.

 confused with today's boiling water re­
actors). In early 1950 AEC authorized
Oak Ridge to build a larger reactor of
this type. The homogeneous reactor ex­
periment (HRE) was completed and
started up in 1952.
By March 1952 the first catalog of the
world's nuclear reactors showed 33 hav­
ing been operated, in operation, or un­
der construction in Canada, England,
France, Norway, the Soviet Union, and
the United States. In addition, there
were plans for construction of reactors
in Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Canada,
France, Holland, India, Mexico, and
Sweden. However, most of these were
designed for plutonium production for
weapons, scientific research, or civilian
isotope production, and only a third or
fewer for the development of reactors
for central station power. A majority of
the reactors were graphite (with air or
gas coolant) or heavy water moderated.
One divergence in reactor design was
based on the fact that most of the
world's uranium-enriching capability
was in the United States. Consequently,
there was a great incentive in Europe
and Canada to use natural (unenriched)
uranium as fuel, which inherently fa­
vored larger reactor types. This led to­
ward a graphite moderator with gas
cooling (the choice of Britain and France)
or a heavy water moderated and cooled
unit (the choice of Canada). In the United
States, the availability of enriched ura­
nium made compact reactor types readily
feasible, and the submarine application
placed a premium on compactness.
Although EBR and HRE operated
successfully, Rickover obtained top
priority for the submarine projects, and
they received most of the attention and
available manpower during the early
1950s.
Inventing on schedule

In 1948 Rickover dared to set a target
date of January 1, 1955, for the first nu­
clear submarine to put to sea. The tech­
nological task that faced the engineers,
physicists, and metallurgists at Argonne
and at Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory

(which Westinghouse set up for the
Navy) to achieve Rickover's target was
immense.
An ideal metal to contain the uranium
fuel had to be found. The rare metal
zirconium had good corrosion resistance
and promised efficient use of uranium
(then still in short supply) because of
zirconium's low affinity for neutrons.
But it cost almost half a million dollars a
pound. Under Rickover's relentless driv­
ing, the Bureau of Mines developed a
less expensive method for producing ade­
quately pure zirconium, and Bettis
developed the alloy Zircaloy.
The problem of shielding the reactor
to protect the crew in the cramped con­
fines of a submarine had to be solved. A
reactor control material and a control
rod drive system had to be developed.
Special canned motor pumps to drive
the high-pressure water coolant through
the reactor had to be developed to meet
the no-leak, limited-access, low-mainte­
nance, no-lubrication requirements.
These are but a few of the many tech­
nological problems for which solutions
had to be invented on schedule for the
submarine program. Despite these hur­
dles, on January 17, 1955, only 17 days
past the target date Rickover had set
seven years earlier, the USS Nautilus
sent her famous message, "Under way
on nuclear power."
A year and a half before the Nautilus
left the dock at Groton, Connecticut, at
the reactor test station some 2200 miles
away in the Idaho desert, the twin of her
reactor was put through a simulated
submerged transatlantic crossing and
other rigorous shakedown tests. The
submarine thermal reactor (STR) Mark I
prototype first went critical (sustained a
chain reaction) on March 30, 1953, and
the following day generated several
thousand kilowatts of thermal energy. In
June the 100-hour simulated transatlan­
tic run at full power was held. The Mark
I thus became the world's first reactor
capable of producing practical amounts
of energy on a sustained and reliable
basis. This event first demonstrated to
naval strategists that a new era in ship

capability was beginning, a fact corrobo­
rated a year and a half later by the
Nautilus.
Surface ship reactor

The tremendous momentum generated
by Rickover's determination to get a
nuclear-propelled submarine was
shortly to carry over from the pressur­
ized water reactor to central station
power.
In July 1952 Rickover, acting in his
two-hat role as head of AEC's naval re­
actors branch and as assistant chief for
nuclear propulsion of the Navy's Bureau
of Ships, expanded the contract with
Westinghouse to include development
of a nuclear power plant to drive large
surface ships. At the close of FY53 the
military requirement for the large ship
reactor was eliminated. However, the
pressurized water reactor (PWR) design
that was to be scaled up from submarine
size held enough promise for central sta­
tion power that AEC decided to con­
tinue R&D.
Five in five

In 1953 AEC adopted the first coordi­
dinated central-station nuclear power
effort in the form of a five-year, five­
reactor program to prepare the way for
private industry to enter the field of nu­
clear power. In March 1954 Congress
approved a budget of $199 million. The
program was made possible by the
Atomic Energy Act of 1954, which
ended federal monopoly over the non­
military atom.
Included in this program were:
o PWR: the former large ship reactor
now adapted for the utility industry's
use, with an output of 60 MW. How­
ever, PWR development was still di­
rected within AEC by Rickover's naval
reactors branch, with little direct indus­
try access. (The PWR facility, located
west of Pittsburgh, is now known as
Shippingport Atomic Power Station.)
o SRE: sodium reactor experiment, a
graphite-moderated, liquid-sodium-

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

13

 cooled unit to be built in the Simi moun­
tains northwest of Los Angeles, with an
output of 5700 kW.
o HRE-2: a scale-up of Oak Ridge's
HRE, with an output of 300 kW.
o EBR-2: a follow-up of Argonne's first
EBR, complete with its integral fuel­
reprocessing plant, with an output of
16.5 MW.
o EBWR: experimental boiling water
reactor, a new entrant among reactor
types, to be built at Argonne National
Laboratory near Chicago with an output
of 4 MW. This was, most simply, an
unpressurized PWR. Not under high
pressure, the water coolant was allowed
to boil in the reactor vessel and was
piped directly into the turbine without
an intervening heat exchanger (steam
generator).
It is startling today to recall that AEC,
while billing the PWR as the first full­
scale central-station nuclear power plant
in the United States, regarded it as
"clearly of conservative design with a
poor long-term prospect for producing
low-cost atomic power." So great was
the value placed on high efficiency of
heat transfer that sodium-cooled sys­
tems were thought to have intrinsically
higher chances of yielding economic
nuclear power.
The champions of homogeneous re­
actors relied on HRE's inherent simplic­
ity: it was but "a pipe, a pot, and a
pump" (as was said at the time) and
avoided the heterogeneous reactors'
need for a fuel fabricated like a Swiss
watch.
Advocates of the breeder acclaimed
its more efficient use of uranium.
The EBWR was an attempt to simplify
the PWR by eliminating the heat ex­
changer. This had been suggested ear­
lier, but there were fears that boiling in
the core-entailing rising steam bubbles,
which constitute voids in the water
moderator-would cause continual
changes in reactivity and consequently
unstable operation. Another concern
was that impurities in the water acti-

14

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

vated in the core might deposit in the
turbine, making it too hot for contact
maintenance.
An Argonne nuclear engineer, Samuel
Untermyer II, proposed testing the first
assumption. A small boiling reactor ex­
periment called Borax was built at the
Idaho testing station in 1953 and tested
to destruction by imposing precipitously
high rates of power increase. It was
shown that the formation of steam in the
reactor completely quenched the nuclear
reaction before a dangerous temperature
was reached. The stable operation of the
BWR was proved, and a pilot plant in
utility configuration was included in the
five-year program. The EBWR went
critical in December 1956, supplied
part of Argonne's power for a decade,
and showed that carryover of radioactiv­
ity to the turbine was not a major
problem.
General Electric, whose power
breeder had not made much progress,
was still anxious to establish a position
in the beckoning field of central station
nuclear power. With Westinghouse
entrenched in PWR technology, General
Electric engaged Untermyer, built a
slightly larger version of EBWR in Cali­
fornia, and adopted the BWR concept.
By 1957 four of the five units in the
five-year program had started up (EBR-2
was not to do so until 1963), and all
operated successfully. However, HRE-2
had problems preventing uranium in the
circulating fuel from settling out. The
project was terminated after such a
plate-out of uranium on the inside of the
reactor vessel formed a hot spot and
burned a hole in it.
The next step was to translate the
results and successes of the five-year
program to commercial practice. Impa­
tient, AEC didn't await completion of all
five reactors. As early as 1955, only one
year after funding by Congress, it an­
nounced federal financial assistance for
utilities willing to invest effort and capi­
tal in building a nuclear power plant.
This was the first round of the Power
Reactor Demonstration Program, and
out of it came the Yankee Rowe ura-

nium-cycle and Indian Point thorium­
cycle PWRs, the Dresden-I BWR, the
Hallam sodium-graphite reactor, and the
Fermi fast breeder.
Sodium at sea

In 1955 General Electric's land-based
prototype of the sodium-cooled sub­
marine reactor started up; in 1956, pro­
pelled by its duplicate, USS Seawolf went
to sea. Although the Seawolf had corro­
sion leaks in the superheater of the
sodium-to-water heat exchangers and
could operate at only 80% of design
horsepower and 90% of maximum de­
sign speed, her reactor performed nota­
bly well. Seawolf steamed 71,600 miles
in 18 months on the first core, and during
that entire period no one entered the
reactor compartment-there was no
need to.
However, the Navy faced an embar­
rassment of riches. Nautilus had per­
formed so well that a successful effort to
solve Seawolf's heat exchanger corrosion
problem would have resulted in two nu­
clear propulsion modes requiring sepa­
rate systems for backup and spare parts
and separate training for the crew and
engineers. Because this was clearly im­
practical and uneconomical, the Navy
gave sodium-cooled reactors an honora­
ble discharge.
Other PWR challenges

By the middle of the 1950s, light-water
reactors-pressurized or boiling-were
the dominant type of reactors in use.
A few more reactor concepts appeared
but lacked staying power. AEC built a
pilot plant of an organic-moderated
reactor-essentially a PWR flowchart
using an organic (terphenyl) heat trans­
fer agent as coolant and moderator. The
municipal utility of Piqua, Ohio, built an
11.4 MW scale-up, but the terphenyl
tended to decompose in use. In another
venture, the molten salt reactor (MSR)
experiment, AEC tried to recapture the
basic simplicity of the homogeneous
type while avoiding its pitfalls by using
molten uranium fluoride salts as coolant.
Although two MSR pilot plants per-

 formed well at Oak Ridge, an industry
group has been unable to obtain support
for a utility-scale demonstration of the
molten salt concept.
Four small reactor experiments at
Los Alamos tested novel variations of
the homogeneous and gas-cooled types
but went no further. Utilities tried out
two other types: boiling water with inte­
gral· superheat and pressure tube with
heavy water moderator. These, too,
operated a few years but without fol­
low up.
The early lead of the PWR gave light
water reactors a lead that proved insu­
perable, despite Rickover's attempts to
protect military security by isolating
naval PWR technology from industry
and despite AEC's original low opinion
of PWR's commercial prospects.
Only one other concept really chal­
lenged the light water reactor concept­
the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor
{HTGR). Shortly after the United States
launched its five-year program, Britain
started up dual-purpose full-scale plants
for military plutonium and commercial
power. It was a shock to the United
States when Britain officially opened its
Calder Hall nuclear station amid much
fanfare on October 17, 1956, with
Queen Elizabeth throwing the switch.
Congressional leaders, afraid the United
States might be missing a good bet,
pushed hard for the gas-cooled concept
and insisted that AEC build an experi­
mental gas-cooled reactor (EGCR).
EGCR was almost completed at Oak
Ridge but was never started up.
A utility group meanwhile built an
improved version that operated at a
higher temperature and efficiency, the
40-MW Peach Bottom-I plant, which
ran successfully for eight years and was
retired in 1974 only because it was too
small to be economic. Peach Bottom-I
led to a 330-MW scale-up at Fort St.
Vrain, Colorado, and to the design of
770- and 1200-MW units. Several of
these units were ordered but were even­
tually canceled for a number of commer­
cial reasons, including a nationwide
utility financing crisis in 1974.

Economic nuclear power

Which reactor type would make nuclear
power economic was the overriding
question among those interested in nu­
clear power in the late 1950s. Cost pro­
jections were the rage, and endless pa­
pers analyzed the obstacles to reaching
the competitive goal of 6 mills/kWh.
Suddenly, economic nuclear power
was achieved. Yankee Rowe had been
constructed within budget and schedule;
Yankee Rowe, as well as Dresden-I and
Indian Point-I, had performed reliably
for two to three years under the scrutiny
of the nation's utility executives.
In 1963 Jersey Central Power & Light
Co. published an economic analysis
explaining its choice of nuclear over coal
for its next large generating station. This
analysis, which became widely known
as the Oyster Creek Report, caused a
sensation. Until that time, many utilities
had justified nuclear projects on the
grounds of preparing for the future, get­
ting in on the ground floor, and patrioti­
cally supporting a national effort. Now
for the first time a utility decision to go
nuclear had been made on strictly com­
mercial grounds, and the calculations
leading to that decision had been pub­
lished in detail.
The effect was like breaking a logjam.
In 1963, 3 other nuclear plants were
ordered; in 1965, 7; in 1966, 20; in 1967,
30; in 1968, 14. By the end of 1969, 91
units had been ordered. Also in 1969,
the units bought in 1963 came on-line
and utilities were able to begin judging
performance. By the end of 1972, 160
units had been ordered.
What finally made nuclear power
economic to the utilities was the scale
factor. It had been recognized early that
the chain-reacting device with power
conversion capability would favor large
units because of engineering design ef­
fects on capital cost. What perhaps had
not been expected was the pace of scal­
ing up. Yankee Rowe at 175 MW and
Dresden-I at 180 MW were the largest
reactors built or planned in 1960 when
two California utilities proposed build­
ing reactors that seemed huge by com-

parison-reactors of 300 and 360 MW.
In 1962 the Yankee group announced
plans for a second unit, Connecticut
Yankee, at 575 MW. The next year came
Oyster Creek at 650 MW. From there it
was but a small step to the first 1000MW reactors announced in 1966 by the
Tennessee Valley Authority for the
three-unit Browns Ferry station. Today
there are 11 nuclear units of 1000 MW
or slightly higher output in operation in
the United States. The 1300-MW
Biblis-B reactor in West Germany is
operating, and Electricite de France has
begun to build the first 2 of 18 PWRs
of 1300 MW each, which it has on order.
The LMFBR

All but 1 of the 70 power reactors oper­
ating in the United States today are
LWRs, and similar trends are emerging
in Europe. France and the USSR have
adopted the PWR; Britain may follow
suit; and Germany is now building and
exporting LWRs.
Aside from the HTGR, which is being
reevaluated, the LMFBR is the only type
still under serious consideration. The
Fermi fast breeder is the only commer­
cial LMFBR to have operated (intermit­
tently from 1963 to 1973), but it was
plagued by technical and institutional
difficulties because it was years ahead of
its time in design sophistication. Al­
though enmeshed in controversy today,
the breeder is felt by many to have a
vital role because it could extend the
energy content of uranium supplies by
60 times-making uranium a greater
energy resource than all other fuels
combined.
Much less has happened in nuclear
technology in the last 15 years than
in the previous 15. There have been
marked advances, to be sure. Fuel per­
formance and design have moved for­
ward. Protection against design-basis
accidents has become much more so­
phisticated. But fundamentally, the
world's selection of the LWR as the
predominant power reactor type was
probably determined by the success of
the USS Nautilus in 1955.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

15

 Research Arms of Congress
In making decisions on such com plex issues as
energy, Cong ress d raws on fou r of its own agenc ies to
supply i n formation and analyses .

C

onsider the decisions faced rou­

In the past decade, Congress has es­

tinely by a U.S. senator or repre­

tablished two new organizations to act

The General Accounting Office (GAO)

sentative. In the course of a single

as information and research support

is second in seniority. It was created by

staff of approximately 800 employees.

workweek, he or she may deal with is­

arms, and it has expanded the roles of

the Budget and Accounting Act of 1921,

sues as diverse as natural gas pricing,

two other organizations that were formed

which also established the Bureau of the

drug regulation, tax increases, and labor

in the early part of the century. In the

Budget (now the Office of Management

reform. Often complex and technical,

studies they conduct, the reports they

and Budget). It is often called the inves­

today's issues generate masses of infor­

prepare, and the services they provide,

tigatory arm of Congress. Initially that

mation from a multitude of sources. How

the four research arms reflect the current

meant audits of government accounts. It

does a legislator assemble and digest the

priorities of Congress, and in some cases,

has grown to include evaluation of gov­

information, unravel the complexities,

indicate future trends and interests.

ernment programs, both ongoing and

Who they are

5000 and is divided into 10 functional

and analyze the policy options?
There is no single source of support.

proposed. GAO now employs more than

Legislators have traditionally drawn on

The

Service

divisions and several support offices. It

agencies in the executive branch, uni­

(CRS) is the oldest of the support agen­

is directed by the comptroller general,

versities,

who serves by virtue of a IS-year presi­

Congressional

Research

constituent groups, interest

cies and dates back to 1914, when it was

groups, and research institutes and have

formed as part of the Library of Con­

dential appointment. Elmer B. Staats is

distilled

information

gress. At that time, its basic orientation

the comptroller at this time.

through the congressional hearing pro­

was toward library reference work. Sub­

The Office of Technology Assessment

cess. They have also relied heavily on

sequent legislation broadened that role,

(OTA) was mandated by the Technology

their committee staff who are expert in

emphasizing the importance of subject

Assessment Act of 1972. Its function is

specific areas.

specialists and in-depth policy analysis .

to help Congress anticipate and plan for

In recent years, however, Congress has

As it is presently organized, CRS per­

the long-term consequences of technol­

recognized the need to strengthen its in­

forms both quick-reference work for leg­

ogy applications.

dependent

and

islators and their staffs through the Con­

OTA has a staff of 130 and is orga­

policy analysis capability. In part, this

gressional Reference Division and policy

nized by subject area. It is governed

has been a result of limited staff re­

analysis through seven research divisions

by a bipartisan congressional board com­

sources and burgeoning information, and

and a group of senior specialists. Issue

posed of six senators and six representa­

in part, it has stemmed from a desire by

briefs, legislation digests, and computer

tives, evenly divided by party. An advi­
sory council composed of 10 citizens, the

much

of

their

information-gathering

Congress to match in key areas the ana­

information support are also provided.

lytic capability of various sections within

CRS Director Gilbert Gude, a former

comptroller general, and the CRS direc­

the federal government.

congressman from Maryland, heads a

tor also assists the agency. OTA's current

16

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

 director is Russell Peterson, former gov­
ernor of Delaware (1969-1973) and
former chairman of the White House
Council on Environmental Quality
(1973-1976).
The Congressional Budget Office
(CBO), the newest of the support agen­
cies, was formed by the Congressional
Budget and Impoundment Act of 1974,
the law that gave Congress the authority
to set budget targets for spending, tax­
ing, deficits, or surpluses. CBO was
formed to support Congress with budge­
tary expertise and fiscal and program
analysis. Among its functions are eco­
nomic forecasting, scorekeeping (keep­
ing track of how specific bills match ceil­
ing targets), costing, annual reports, and
special studies. Alice M. Rivlin, former
senior fellow at the Brookings Institution,
directs the CBO staff of 200 employees.
The energy connection

Reflecting the growing emphasis on
energy issues in Congress and in the
executive branch, all four of the con­
gressional support agencies have formed
energy analysis groups.
The largest is GAO's Division of
Energy and Minerals, under the direction
of Monte Canfield, Jr., commanding ap­
proximately 6-8% of the agency's

resources. "Energy," Canfield notes, "is
now the largest substantive issue area
in GAO."
It wasn't always that way. The group
has expanded markedly since 1974 when
Canfield arrived to spearhead a staff of
only 8 or 9. But by 1977 the unit had
grown to the point where it was elevated
to division status, reporting directly to
the comptroller general. Today it em­
ploys about 360.
The group is now striving for greater
professional diversity. Canfield estimates
that at least 75% of his staff have "tradi­
tional backgrounds" for GAO-account­
ing, auditing, business. He hopes to even­
tually have a 50-50 mix of traditional and
nontraditional disciplines represented,
adding more chemists, environmental­
ists, economists, and social scientists.
The second largest energy analysis
team is in CRS. Some 20 professionals
are regularly involved, explains Elizabeth
Yadlosky, associate director for research,
and the number may be augmented by
researchers from other disciplines when
needed. Senior Specialist Alvin Kaufman
labels this the "university" approach to
research. "We have a deep well of talent
that we tap for different studies," he
says. "The bulk of our projects are
cooperative."

Three CRS divisions deal directly with
energy: Science Policy Research, Envi­
ronment and Natural Resources Policy,
and Economics. Kaufman is a member of
yet another pool that contributes inter­
mittently-the senior specialists who are
nationally known experts. And finally,
the quick-reference teams in the Con­
gressional Reference Division answer
questions from legislators and their
staffs daily, often on a while-you-wait
basis. If a congressman needs to know
how much oil the United States im­
ported in 1970, for example, these CRS
researchers can provide the answer.
The Congressional Budget Office,
with only 8 employees specializing in
energy (mostly economists), plays a
much smaller and more selective role.
Raymond Scheppach, assistant director
for the Natural Resources and Commerce
Division, explains that many of CBO's
resources are in the "quick and dirty
budget-type things," such as scorekeep­
ing and budget estimating. The deputy
assistant director, Richard Morgenstern
adds that "relative to CBO's total intel­
lectual contribution to Congress, energy
is a small proportion." CBO is primarily
concerned with those items that have
large budgetary impact, he explains.
"The federal government's role in en-

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

17

 Monte Canfield, J r . , General Accounting Office

ergy is not a major budgetary drain as
compared to welfare or defense," he says.
"So quite naturally, CBO's resources are
more heavily placed in other areas."
The Office of Technology Assessment
currently devotes about 10% of its re­
sources to energy (13 employees and
nearly $1 million) . In fact, for FY79 more
money was requested for energy than for
any of OTA's other program areas. The
Energy Program, managed by Richard
Rowberg under the direction of Lionel
Johns, OTA assistant director, is heav­
ily staffed by individuals with technical
backgrounds, including several physi­
cists, a mechanical engineer, and a chem­
ist. However, Rowberg also has on board
a political scientist, an economist, and a
systems analyst. The concept behind
staffing, he says, is to have project teams
with technically oriented leaders, with
others responsible for specific impact ar­
eas (e.g., economic, social). The OTA en­
ergy staff, as in other programs, is aug­
mented by contractors and consultants.
How they differ

At first glance, it might seem that these
energy support groups, as well as their
parent agencies, overlap in function. On
closer examination, it is apparent they do
not. The four agencies strive to avoid it.

18

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

Raymond Scheppach, Congressional Budget Office

"We don't start a job here that we
haven't coordinated with the other agen­
cies," GAO's Canfield says. Others make
the same comment. All point out that
their studies on similar issues are from
different perspectives.
"We all did analyses of the National
Energy Plan, but we all did them from
different points of view," remarks Row­
berg from OTA
Yadlosky of CRS sees this as healthy.
"Congress should get the benefit of anal­
yses from different organizations. That
helps eliminate tunnel vision."
The different orientations that under­
lie the studies are a function of the fun­
damental differences in the type of ser­
vices the organizations provide to Con­
gress. The focus of CRS, for example, is
on short-term studies and quick answers
regarding issues Congress may be deal­
ing with at any particular moment.
"We're the kind of an organization
tapped on a short-run basis," Kaufman
explains. Quick-reference questions are
generally answered the day received and
longer studies seldom run beyond two
months.
"Our mission is perceived by most­
including the appropriations committees
-as being an aid to Congress with its
day-to-day work- expediting it, and

keeping it rolling," Yadlosky adds. "We
are response, service oriented. If you
want to know what CRS is doing, all
you have to do is look at the Washing/on
Post or The New York Times. Our work
closely parallels what's in the paper."
If the day-to-day, short-term work is
the domain of CRS, just the opposite is
true with OTA, whose studies average a
year or longer. Rowberg explains that
his organization seeks to give Congress
"as good an understanding as possible
of the long-term effects of what they do.
We go beyond the immediate outlook."
CBO has a specific focus in terms of
budgetary issues, even in the special
studies area. "We are concentrating on
issues that have budgetary impact as op­
posed to purely regulatory-type ques­
tions," Scheppach says. Average time for
CBO's studies is about four months.
However, the issued report is just the
beginning, officials note. "A report may
establish our credibility in a given area,
but where we make our impact is often
through subsequent briefings, memos, or
conversations with committee staffs,"
Scheppach explains.
GAO's focus, according to Canfield,
is on examining specific federal programs
and assessing them to ascertain if they
are in the national interest, efficient, ef-

 Richard Morgenstern, Congressional Budget Office

fective, and economic. This includes tra­
ditional audits, as well as evaluating the
pros and cons of ongoing, newly enacted,
and proposed programs, and making
conclusions and recommendations. "This
role of interpretative analysis is increas­
ingly important," he remarks. "Congress
has been very receptive to it."
GAO's energy studies run about 6-12
months. "We gear them to our planning
cycle and the legislative program year,"
Canfield states. "You know, it's no good
issuing recommendations when you can
see the train going down the track."
A clear distinction can be drawn be­
tween GAO and the other three agencies
by noting the practice of making or avoid­
ing explicit policy recommendations.
GAO makes them as a matter of course.
"We always show what the options are,
but we will definitely choose one if it
looks preferable to the others," says
Canfield. OTA, CBO, and CRS present
policy options but do not draw conclu­
sions or make recommendations.
"We outline the options, the alterna­
tives, the pros and cons, and some of the
pitfalls of certain choices," explains Kauf­
man of CRS. "We don't make value judg­
ments. Congress gets paid for making
those kinds of decisions, so we don't
tell them what they should do." OTA

Richard Rowberg, Office of Technology Assessment

and CBO operate under similar philos­
ophies.
Another key difference is the manner
in which the organizations conduct re­
search. For CRS, CBO, and GAO, it is
basically an in-house process, with only
selected use made of outside sources for
advice and analysis.
"Our studies are almost 100% in­
house," Scheppach says of CBO. How­
ever, he adds that information is drawn
from outside sources and that papers are
put out "for extensive review." Interviews
with utility executives, for example, are
being conducted as background for a
study on nuclear power licensing. Simi­
larly, Yadlosky of CRS explains, "We
value our professional contacts outside
CRS and we sometimes get a group of
people together for guidance on a study."
Canfield of GAO says his energy divi­
sion uses experts and consultants on a
limited basis, sometimes as extended
members of the staff and other times on
an advisory basis. "At times groups of
consultants may be brought in to review
work in several stages of progress," he
explains. "In such cases we don't ask
them to reach collective judgments or
show them our conclusions and recom­
mendations. These are solely the respon­
sibility of GAO."

It is with OTA that the most elaborate
and extensive network of outside advice
exists.
"We do call on the intellectual re­
sources of the country," comments OTA's
Public Affairs Officer Charles Wixom. He
explains that such a small staff could not
possibly cover all the aspects of a technol­
ogy assessment. The office relies heavily
on outside contractors and consultants to
prepare individual segments of its anal­
yses. An OTA project team monitors the
work, synthesizes the material, identifies
the major policies to be discussed, ana­
lyzes the impacts, and writes the final
report.
Each OTA study is further guided by
an advisory panel composed of persons
representing various interests pertinent
to the effort. For example, a current study
on residential energy conservation in­
cludes a panel of representatives from the
building industry, consumer groups, util­
ities, savings and loan institutions-"the
whole range of interests," Rowberg notes.
This preference for an extended orga­
nization helps to draw a clear distinc­
tion between OTA's analyses and those
of its counterpart agencies. Rowberg
says OTA's analysis of the National
Energy Plan was different in that "the
principal input came from the 100-plus

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

19

 Alvin Kaufman, Congressional Research Service

people brought in, formed into panels,
and asked to write issue papers." The
OTA staff edited and modified the work,
adding their own perspectives. RPne
Males, director of EPRI's Energy Analysis
and Environment Division, served on one
of the panels for this study, and Ralph
Perhac, manager of EPRI's Physical Fac­
tors Program, is serving on a panel for
a coal-use study now in progress.
One other major difference among the
organizations is the origin of the request
for their studies. GAO is unique in
that it can initiate its own work. "Most
of our work is self-generated," Canfield
says, emphasizing, however, that the
agency works closely with congressional
committee staffs to get a good feeling for
where their interests lie.
OTA can conduct studies only at the
request of a congressional committee
(through the chairman or ranking minor­
ity member), a member of the OTA gov­
erning board, or its director. Committee
request is most common. All assessment
projects must be approved by OTA's
board.
"The reason is to ensure that there
is broad enough support for doing the
study," Rowberg explains. "That's neces­
sary because of the long-term nature of

20

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

Elizabeth Yadlosky, Congressional Research Service

our studies and our limited resources."
In the CRS research divisions, the
service to committees has increased
because recent legislation has under­
scored that obligation. However, specific
projects are prepared for members, and
in addition, reports prepared for com­
mittees or in anticipation of interest by
Congress as a whole are available to
members and their legislative aides.
CBO also works at committee request,
through the chairman or ranking minor­
ity member. "By statute, our first respon­
sibility is to the House and Senate budget
committees," Morgenstern explains, "and
since much of the energy legislation lies
outside the purview of those committees,
we in the energy area have also been
working closely with the authorizing
committees."
Congressional concerns

A glance at the kinds of energy studies
being requested by Congress indicates
where the major interests lie.
At CBO, energy staffers are working
on an analysis of nuclear reactor plan­
ning and some of the policy questions in
the Nuclear Siting and Licensing Act
presently before Congress. The study
will be delivered to its requestor-the

House Interior Committee-sometime
this summer. CBO is also preparing an
assessment of federal R&D policy, in­
cluding identification of the particular
areas of scientific interest and the spe­
cific stages of the research process that
are most suitable for federal involve­
ment. In the past, CBO has issued re­
ports on uranium enrichment, financing
energy development, and nuclear repro­
cessing and proliferation.
At GAO, work is under way on a study
of the role of cogeneration in the national
conservation effort. A report on that topic
will be published in September. Other
studies under way are those reviewing
the status and potential for new fission
concepts (including EPRI's Ci vex pro­
posal for reprocessing), analyzing future
electricity demand requirements and ca­
pacity availability, and surveying DOE's
solar heating and cooling demonstration
programs.
OTA will release a major study this
fall on the direct use of coal. In the past,
the agency has issued assessments on coal
slurry pipelines, on-site solar systems,
nuclear proliferation and safeguards, and
prospects for enhanced recovery of oil.
CRS officials are strictly prohibited
from discussing studies in progress. And

 Lionel Johns, Office of Technology Assessment

once a study is completed, it is the prop­
erty of the committee or legislator who
requested it. CRS does not publish its
own studies. The reguestor can (and usu­
ally does) publish the report in the form
of a committee print or in the Congres­
sional Record. Published prints include
"Electric and Gas Utility Rate and Fuel
Adjustment Clause Increases, 1976";
"Energy and the Economy"; "The Struc­
ture of the U.S. Petroleum Industry"; and
"Alternative Energy Conservation Strate­
gies: An Appraisal."
In general, energy officials in these
agencies point to solar as the energy tech­
nology issue of prime interest to Congress
right now. Other interests include the
concept of a national electric grid; power
plant siting and reliability; the back end
of the nuclear fuel cycle and the breeder
reactor; supply issues, including synthe­
tic,fuels; and renewable resources.
A surprising observation from these
individuals is that energy, although defi­
nitely number one in congressional inter­
est this session, might not remain so in
the future. It will not decrease in impor­
tance, they stress, but it may in general
interest.
"It used to be maybe seventh in inter­
est, now it is first, but it may fall to third,"

Scheppach of CBO comments. "We will
probably maintain that, but it is not going
to be anywhere near as big as it is this
session."
"There are some energy issues that
conceivably could be decided once and
for all, like natural gas deregulation, if
that passes," adds Morgenstern. "I sus­
pect that energy is going to be around to
stay, but the crisis atmosphere that many
perceive to be in existence may go away."
"It's at the top of the list right now,
but this changes," says Kaufman of CRS.
"If something would happen to thrust
recombinant DNA into the limelight, for
example, energy would not be difficult
to replace as the top issue," says OTA's
Rowberg.
Canfield agrees. "After all the tremen­
dous gnashing of teeth and wills, it's pos­
sible people are very tired of energy."
Agencies to watch

The roles of CRS, GAO, OTA, and
CBO are evolving. Cumulatively, they
strengthen the capability of Congress to
analyze the information, make decisions,
and carry out its responsibility to the
electorate. In energy issues as well as in
other key areas, they are agencies to fol­
low with interest.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

21

 Heat radiation
em itted to
space

Heat radiation absorbed by CO,

CO2 and
)paCC!)hip
earth
by Stan Terra

Scientists disagree over whether
steadily increasing concentration of
atmospheric CO2 is causing a warming
trend that could radically alter climate and
lead to global physical and economic dislocation.

H

uman beings are carrying out a
large-scale geophysical experi­
ment of a kind that could not
have happened in the past nor be re­
peated in the future," scientist Roger
Revelle stated in 1957.
The eminent marine geologist and
former director of Scripps Institution of
Stan Terra is feature writer for the EPRI Journal.

22

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

Oceanography went on to explain,
"Within a few centuries we are returning
to the atmosphere and oceans the concen­
trated organic carbon stored in the sedi­
mentary rocks over hundreds of millions
of years. This experiment . . . may
yield far-reaching insight into the pro­
cesses determining weather and climate."
Central to this "geophysical experi­
ment," in progress since the start of the

industrial revolution, is the widespread
burning of oil, natural gas, and coal­
fossil fuels "stored in the sedimentary
rocks over hundreds of millions of
years," which have served as the major
energy sources of the modern industrial
world. Eighteen years after his statement,
Revelle headed a panel of leading scien­
tists in an investigation of the effects of
energy use on climate. The report of the

 taking of a worldwide comprehensive
research program that "should include
studies of the carbon cycle, climate, fu­
ture population changes and energy
demand, and ways to mitigate the effects
of climatic change on world food
production."
Thomas Malone of Butler University,
a cochairman of the NAS Geophysics
Study Committee under which the Energy
and Climate panel did its work, has said
that conclusions in Energy and Climate
should not be taken as a red light on coal
use, but rather as "a flashing yellow
light."
Growing concern

two-year study, Energy and Climate, spon­
sored by the National Academy of
Sciences (NAS), was published in 1977.
"The principal conclusion of this
study," the report noted, "is that the
primary limiting factor on energy pro­
duction from fossil fuels over the next
few centuries may turn out to be the
climatic effects of the release of carbon
dioxide." The panel urged the under-

Carbon dioxide (C02 )-an atmospheric
trace gas given off whenever matter con­
taining carbon burns, decays, or other­
wise oxidizes-is transparent to the sun's
incoming shortwave radiation but ab­
sorbs the longwave radiation outgoing
from the earth's surface. Consequently,
an increase in atmospheric CO2 concen­
tration results in greater absorption of the
longwave radiation and reradiation back
to earth, leading to a rise in the earth's
temperature. This is commonly called
the greenhouse effect, the glass in a
greenhouse being analogous to CO2 .
Scientists recognize that there are other
atmospheric gases and particles that may
also be important to the net balance of
radiation heat in the earth's atmosphere.
Among these is nitrous oxide (N2 0),
released when the nitrogen in fertilizers
combines with bacteria in the soil. As
agricultural productivity intensifies to
meet the food needs of the world's grow­
ing population, N2 0 concentration in the
atmosphere may increase and thereby
affect the earth's warming.
Also to be noted is the probable in­
crease in cloud formation caused by
greater evaporation as earth temperature
rises. More cloud cover would tend to
cool the earth and could counteract the
warming.
The greenhouse effect may lead to a
global warming trend; a change in climate
and rainfall patterns, with consequent

dislocation of established agricultural
zones and attendant economic disrup­
tion; a melting of sea ice, or in the ex­
treme, of the polar ice caps, which could
flood coastal regions. These possible con­
sequences have prompted concern and
study in the scientific community and re­
search support from the federal govern­
ment.
According to George Woodwell, direc­
tor of the Ecosystems Center at the
Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods
Hole, Massachusetts, "The carbon diox­
ide problem is one of the most important
worldwide environmental issues." The
U.S. government has shown a marked
interest in the CO 2 issue since the 1972
Stockholm Conference on the Human
Environment. The U.S. Office of Naval
Research examined the problem in its
Symposium Series in Oceanography in
1976. The Dahlen Conference in Biogeo­
chemistry, held in West Berlin in 1976,
also considered the matter and was fol­
lowed last year by an ERDA (now DOE)
conference in Miami on the world CO 2
problem and a meeting on the world car­
bon content in Ratzeburg, West Ger­
many. A workshop on CO2 , climate, and
society, cosponsored by the World Mete­
orological Organization, the United Na­
tions Environment Program, and the
Scientific Committee on Problems of the
Environment, was held in Geneva in Feb­
ruary of this year under the auspices of
the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis.
DOE has launched a long-range, multi­
million dollar program designed to ex­
plore the uncertainties of CO2 effects.
The DOE effort, under the direction of
Lester Machta, head of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administra­
tion's (NOAA) Air Resources Laboratory
and a respected veteran meteorologist,
will examine the carbon cycle, especially
the storage and exchange mechanisms
working in the world's forests, oceans,
and humus (decomposed plant and ani­
mal matter forming the organic portion
of the soil). Attention also will be given
to the social and economic consequences

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

23

 of climatic changes resulting from an
increase in atmospheric CO 2 and what
might be done to lessen or prevent such
changes.
A national climate bill, coauthored by
California Congressman George Brown
and Illinois Senator Adlai Stevenson, is
being considered by Congress. (At this
writing, the bill is expected to pass and be
signed by President Carter.) The measure
is intended to coordinate federal climate
research efforts, with emphasis on sup­
plying data to users of climate informa­
tion (e.g., farmers, planners, scientists).
Research on CO 2 effects is also included
in the proposed legislation.
Theories and uncertainties

Scientists who have studied the problem
agree that the volume of CO 2 in the at­
mosphere has been steadily increasing.
The level in preindustrial 1860 has been
estimated at 293 parts per million (ppm).
Since 1958, the atmospheric CO 2 con­
centration at the Mauna Loa volcano in
Hawaii has been continuously recorded
at a monitoring station set up by Charles
Keeling, a Scripps oceanographer. Data
collected at this station and at another
station at the South Pole (both operated
by NOAA) indicate a steady rise in CO2
concentration from 315 ppm in 1958 to
about 334 ppm in 1977. Over one-quarter
of the 41 ppm increase since 1860 has
come in the last 10 years. Some scientists
believe that if the present 4% growth rate
of fossil fuel use is continued, a doubling
of atmospheric CO 2 could occur in the
next 30-50 years. That, in turn, could
result in a global temperature increase of
2-3 °C, a 2% increase in average relative
humidity, and 7% higher average rainfall.
In theory, most of these changes would
take place in the Northern Hemisphere,
where industrial concentration and CO 2
emissions are the greatest.
Scientists disagree, however, on the
long-range effects these changes would
bring. Theories range from "a major
disaster [owing to] a rapid 5-meter rise in
sea level caused by deglaciation of West
Antarctica" as seen by J. H. Mercer of the
Institute of Polar Studies at Ohio State

24

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

University, to the "wait and see" position
of Helmut Landsberg, a well-known cli­
matologist and emeritus professor at the
University of Maryland. "I think the tem­
peratures in the recent decade have been
fairly level," says Landsberg, whose
long-term observations indicate to him
that no definitive changes-either toward
warming or cooling-can be documented
from the climatic record, and so are not
"projectable."
"The critical question is not what will
happen on a global scale," Landsberg
says, "but rather what would happen in
Iowa if world temperature rose one or
two degrees. Would Iowans still be able
to raise corn? What would happen to the
rainfall in Louisiana and California?
Would the Indian monsoon season be
better or worse? We cannot answer these
specific questions with the models we
now have." Landsberg adds, "On top of
that, we don't know what nature is do­
ing independently. You see, nature has a
cussed habit of crossing up predictions.
As Fourier (19th century French mathe­
matician and physicist) said, 'Nature
doesn't give a damn how much trouble
she gives mathematicians.' As a meteo­
rologist, I'm quite sensitive to that. We
just don't know all the feedback mech­
anisms."
The most widely accepted theory holds
that man-induced influences on the
atmosphere-mainly, the generation of
CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion-will
cause a significant rise in global tempera­
tures over the next 25-200 years.
William Kellogg of the National Center
for Atmospheric Research, a leading
proponent of this position, has been
conducting an ambitious study of the
cumulative impact on climate of society's
environmental modifications.
"It now appears," says Kellogg, "that
we are becoming a significant factor in
the climate balance." He estimates that
the level of CO 2 in the atmosphere will
increase to 400 ppm by the year 2000 and
then double that by 2040. "This rate of
warming will be appreciably larger than
any change of mean surface temperature
we have seen in the last 1000 years,"

Kellogg predicts, "and could roll the
clock back to 4000-8000 years ago when
the earth was warmer than now." He sug­
gests that such a warmer earth might
well be a more desirable place to live
because rainfall patterns would be more
favorable to the world's population than
they are now. This could result in the
increased fertility of wider regions in the
Northern Hemisphere and population
shifts from crowded areas to newly desir­
able, more spacious locations.
A position that tends to reconcile the
extremes is that held by J. Murray
Mitchell, senior research climatologist
with NOAA. As Mitchell sees it, nearly
20 billion tons of CO 2 are released to the
atmosphere annually through the burn­
ing of fossil fuels. This amounts yearly to
about 0.7% of the total CO 2 already in
the atmosphere, which is now some 13%
greater than it was 100 years ago. A dou­
bling of the current level of CO2 would
raise mean world temperatures by about
3 °C. What would all this mean to future
climate?
"If we rely for very long on fossil fuels
to meet our energy needs, the conse­
quences to climate are likely to become
noticeable by the end of this century,"
Mitchell predicts. "On the longer, geo­
logic time scale, consumption of the bulk
of the world's known fossil fuel reserves
would plunge our planet into what
Wallace Broecker of the Lamont-Doherty
Geological Observatory has described as
a 'super-interglacial' era (warm period),
the likes of which the world has not
experienced in the last million years."
Mitchell warns that if we wait until signs
are clear that a warming trend has begun
before we start phasing out our fossil fuel
use, the damage will already have been
done in the 50 or so years it would take
for a fuel transition. And the conse­
quences, he says, "would endure for
thousands of years after the fossil fuels
have been consumed!"
Forests seen as source

Scientists engaged in projecting global
climatic conditions rely on data gener­
ated by various mathematical models. In

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Annual Change [ppm/yr- 1 )

This record by NOAA's Mauna Loa Observatory on the island of Hawaii indicates monthly average
concentration of atmospheric CO,. Seasonal oscillations result when CO, is removed from the
atmosphere by photosynthesis during the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere and
subsequently released in the fall and winter. The graph shows a rise in average atmospheric CO 2 of
more than 5% since 1 958. Current rate of increase is 1 ppm/yr (2.3 x 1 0 1 5 grams of carbon).
Source: Charles Keeling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

'

 EPRI LOOKS INTO CO2 PROBLEM

So far, EPRI has funded two studies
of the CO 2 problem: a state-of­
knowledge study by John Laurmann
of the mechanical engineering depart­
ment at Stanford University and a
more comprehensive investigation by
Radian Corp.
Laurmann states in his report that
projections of the extent of global
climatic change from fossil-fuel­
generated CO 2 "are uncertain and
controversial, due in large measure to
ignorance of the physical mechanisms
involved." He notes, however, that
the apparent evidence "suggests the
need for the immediate introduction
of remedial measures to bring about
a smooth transition to noncarbon­
based energy sources in the next SO
years." But he adds that because the
uncertainties in climate change pre­
dictions are extremely large, actual
climate change "may be negligible or,
to the contrary, more critical than the
most probable estimate indicates."
Laurmann goes on to say, "Since
we can assign economic costs to the
potential climate change impacts and
to energy-use strategies designed to
reduce them, a cost-benefit study
based on decision analysis under risk
can be carried out that would indicate
an optimum energy-use strategy as
well as the cost of delay in putting it
into effect."
The Radian study assesses the
implications of increased CO2 emis­
sions and their control for the country
as a whole and for the utility industry
specifically. Radian's report notes that
the United States contributed 28% of
the world's CO2 from fossil fuel com­
bustion in 1973 and that predictions
point to a 19-28% U.S. contribution
by 2025. Global CO2 emissions by
2025 are projected at 3-6 times the
1973 level. "However, if the U.S.
emissions were totally eliminated,"
the report states, "the world's CO 2
emissions from fossil fuels would still
be 2-5 times that of 1973."
It is further noted, 'The largest

contributors to CO 2 emissions in the
United States are the utility, transpor­
tation, and industrial sectors. In 1974
their contributions were 26, 27, and
38%, respectively." Projections to the
year 2000 place the relative contribu­
tion at 30-40%, utilities; 26-30%,
transportation; and 15-17%, industry.
"To put the utility sector contribution
in perspective," the report states,
"at no time will the United States be
the major global contributor of CO 2
to the atmosphere when compared to
the other regions of the world. In fact,
if emissions were entirely eliminated
from the United States, global CO 2
emission levels would still be pre­
dicted to rise considerably. Depend­
ing on the energy mix of the future,
annual global CO 2 emissions are
predicted to increase by 105-362%,
even if the entire United States
burned no fossil fuels."
Among the Radian study's conclu­
sions are:
o The United States alone cannot
solve the potential problem by unilat­
erally decreasing or eliminating CO2
emissions. An international effort will
be required.
o Reducing CO2 emissions from the
utility industry alone will not solve
the U.S. or the worldwide CO 2
problem.
o Removal of CO2 from flue gases
does not appear feasible because of
prohibitive costs and lack of disposal
methods.
o Non-CO 2 -generating energy
sources are needed for worldwide use
in underdeveloped as well as in in­
dustrialized nations.
o There is no effective control strat­
egy that could be applied quickly on
a global scale to reduce CO2 emis­
sions significantly.
o The only control measure imme­
diately available is energy conservation.

Mitchell's view, since "no model is alto­
gether realistic in its description of the
real climatic system and because some of
the physical processes that operate in the
real climatic system cannot yet be simu­
lated, it cannot be asserted that a dou­
bling of carbon dioxide would have the
same effects on real climate as a simu­
lated doubling has on 'model climate."'
He adds, however, "Our experience with
climate models suggests that their use
leads to results that are likely to approxi­
mate reality fairly closely. Alternatives
to our reliance on climate models do not
really exist, unless we prefer the alterna­
tive of 'wait and see."'
What is needed, Mitchell explains, are
models that simulate "climatic change,
including transients from one time to
another as the carbon dioxide levels
change. We don't have that yet. It's those
transients that are going to influence the
course of mankind and our decisions over
the next 100-200 years."
A common assumption by CO 2 inves­
tigators that the steady increase of CO2 in
the atmosphere has been caused mainly
by the combustion of fossil fuels is now
thrown into question by new evidence
reported by ecologist George Woodwell.
There are strong indications, according to
Woodwell, that the world's forests, com­
monly thought to be a sink for CO 2 , are
actually a source of atmospheric CO 2 .
Data from the monitoring stations not
only have shown an increase in CO2 but
a variation in winter and summer, with a
minimum in late summer and a maxi­
mum in late winter.
"Recently it has been recognized,"
reports Woodwell, "that the primary
cause of the seasonal change is most
probably the pulse of photosynthesis in
forests of the middle latitudes." He ex­
plains that "the emphasis is on forests
because they are extensive in area, con­
duct more photosynthesis worldwide
than any other type of vegetation, and
have the potential for storing carbon in
quantities sufficiently large to affect the
carbon dioxide content of the atmos­
phere."

 10

.....��--'���-'-���-'-���-'-���"--��--''--�---'
-75

- 1 50

- 1 25

-50

- 1 00

- 25

Today

Time ( 1 000 yr)
A cooling trend leading to a new ice age might be expected in the next several
thousand years if the pattern of the last interglacial is repeated- unless the
warming effect of CO2 induces a "superinterglacial'.' In that case, the next ice age
would have to wait a thousand years or more- until this warming had run its
course. Source: J. Murray Mitchell, Environmental Data Service, NOAA,
March 1 9 77.

The variation in the extent of the differ­
ence between the late winter and late
summer CO2 concentration is consistent
with this hypothesis. Woodwell relates
that the difference ranges from about
5 ppm at Mauna Loa to more than 15 ppm
in central Long Island, New York. The
difference decreases toward the tropics,
where the seasonal pulse of metabolism
is either less evident or absent, and there
is less difference at higher elevations in
all latitudes. Further, it is substantially
less in the Southern Hemisphere, pre­
sumably because the smaller landmass
limits the forest area. "The clear conclu­
sion," says Woodwell, "is that the forests
of the earth have a pronounced influence
on the short-term carbon dioxide content
of the atmosphere."
Woodwell further notes that new evi­
dence shows there is probably a substan­
tial release of CO 2 from the earth's biota
(the totality of living matter). "The clear
assumption that the increase in the car­
bon dioxide content of the atmosphere
has been the consequence of burning
fossil fuels, without regard to possible
changes in the biota," he says, "has led to
what now appears to be a serious mis­
calculation of the world carbon budget."

As the forests of the world have gradually
been cleared to make way for agriculture
and other uses, Woodwell explains, this
process of forest depletion has triggered
a release of the carbon stored in the trees.
This carbon, absorbed as CO 2 from the
atmosphere by the trees in the photosyn­
thetic process, is then returned to the
atmosphere as CO 2 •
Another apparent miscalculation has
been found in the oceans' ability to ab­
sorb atmospheric CO 2 • Again, recent evi­
dence indicates that the oceans are less
of a sink for CO 2 than had been believed.
Theoretically, the oceans have more than
ample capacity to absorb the CO 2 that
would result from combustion of all the
known reserves of fossil fuels. But only
a relatively shallow, well-mixed surface
layer about 100 meters deep can react
quickly enough to take up the CO 2 • And
as Wallace Broecker says, this surface
layer "is already saturated with carbon
dioxide." Broecker explains that CO 2 can
combine with water molecules and with
the carbonate ions that are part of the
salt in the oceans. But there is a limited
amount of these carbonate ions in any
given volume of seawater.
"For every 10% of carbon dioxide

taken up by the surface water, the car­
bonate concentration decreases 10%,"
Broecker points out. "So the effectiveness
for reacting with more carbon dioxide is
thereby diminished." The carbonate ions
in the surface layer are replenished by
a natural mixing process from the deeper
ocean waters. This process of "ventila­
tion" has been found to occur very slowly
and is not well understood. Recent calcu­
lations suggest that the circulation is not
fast enough to significantly increase the
capacity of the world's oceans to absorb
the steady increase in atmospheric CO 2 •
Although Keeling and his colleague
Robert Bacastow at Scripps disagree that
the ocean's capacity to absorb CO 2 has
diminished (Bacastow noting that the
ocean covers three-fourths of the earth's
surface), they emphasize that "the
world's oceans cannot be expected to re­
move a major fraction of the industrial
carbon dioxide from the air for a long
time in comparison with the lifetime of
human institutions." They add, "It is
probably prudent to expect the concen­
tration of atmospheric carbon dioxide to
persist above twice the preindustrial
level for at least several centuries."
Will it be too late?

NOAA's Mitchell feels strongly that
"ours is the generation that must come
to grips with the carbon dioxide problem
and mount a vigorous research effort to
allow us to understand all of its ramifi­
cations for the future." Woodwell says,
"There is almost no aspect of national
and international policy that can remain
unaffected by the prospect of global cli­
matic change. Carbon dioxide, until now
an apparently innocuous trace gas in the
atmosphere, may be moving rapidly to­
ward a central role as a major threat to
the present world order." And Kellogg
warns, "If we wait to let the atmosphere
perform the carbon dioxide experiment,
we will finally learn how well our models
have served in making the predictions of
climate change-but then it will be too
late to do much about it if a warmer
earth should prove to be a sadder earth."

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

27

 The Electricity
Future: What
Can You Believe?
by Chauncey Starr

28

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1978

Distin g u ishing the elements
and time d i mensions of o u r
energy problem h i g h l i g hts t h e
need for many energy
tech no log ies.

 W

ith gasoline flowing from the
pumps, newspapers writing of
an oil glut, and a complacent
public getting all the energy it wants
(even though at a substantially higher
price than in the past), it is reasonable
to ask if there really is an energy problem.
The answer is not a simple yes or no.
There are, in fact, two separate problems.
The most urgent is our highly visible
dependence on foreign oil. The other, a
less visible problem, is our eventual ex­
haustion of mineral fuel resources. What
meaning do these problems hold for en­
ergy technology in general-and for
electricity in particular? When so much is
uncertain, especially actual resource in­
ventories and the predictions that flow
from them, what can you believe?
Oil politics today

Ever since the 1973 oil embargo made
our dependence on overseas suppliers
obvious, that dependence has risen
markedly. We now import about 45% of
our crude oil, and the problem today
takes two forms. First, because the Arab
cartel is using oil supply for policy pur­
poses as well as for economic gain, we
have undoubtedly lost a measure of for­
eign policy independence. Second, be­
cause of high prices for Arab oil and the
associated increases for other fuels, we
have suffered a substantial dislocation of
our domestic economy, not to mention
the adverse effect on our foreign trade
balance.
For these near-term issues there is only
one immediate solution-major reduc­
tion of oil imports, presumably by cut­
ting overall oil consumption through in­
tensive conservation across the board,
substitution of other energy resources,
or severe restraint of highly oil-depen­
dent but deferrable end-use activities,
such as recreational travel by auto and
air.

Chauncey Starr, EPRl's founding president, was
named to the new post of vice chairman in May of
this year.

As a nation we have not been asked to
make these kinds of adjustments. The
administration is obviously gambling
that the long-term self-interest of the
Arabs will preclude another embargo or
excessive price demands. Still, the risk
of another embargo is recognized, and
the federal government has initiated a
national strategic oil reserve as a partial
answer.
How big is the oil barrel?

The visible near-term problem is often
confused with a much less obvious long­
term issue over which there is some
professional doubt that a problem truly
exists. Public concern has nevertheless
been stimulated by the eventual deple­
tion of worldwide mineral fuels and by a
potential increase in the environmental
impacts of growing worldwide energy
use-two generalizations that are pre­
dictive truisms.
These issues are quantitatively very
speculative because of our limited fact
base, but the uncertainty itself has given
rise to much emotional rhetoric about
doomsdays to come. For example, our
near-term problem of rising oil imports
has been presented to the public as part
of a worldwide acceleration of oil re­
source depletion. Yet, there is no indica­
tion that we are approaching the bottom
of the world's oil barrel, if we are willing
to pay higher prices. Oil cannot be found
without looking for it, and this depends
on the price incentives to do so.
Oil policy for what?

Interestingly, many of those who are pes­
simistic about future oil findings are, in
contrast, optimistic about finding ura­
nium ore. Proven U.S. reserves of ura­
nium are just adequate for the lifetime
needs of the commercial nuclear power
plants now built and under construction.
For this reason the electric utility indus­
try has urged the development of the
breeder reactor, which uses uranium
about 60 times more effectively than
present nuclear plants. The administra­
tion has taken the position that ample

uranium will be found and that the
breeder may therefore be delayed, ap­
parently on the premise that luck is an
American heritage.
Unfortunately, most of the projected
energy scenarios, whether doomsday or
otherwise, are based on selective assump­
tions of what is likely to happen. Each
scenario is shaped by the philosophic
objectives, social values, and time per­
spective of the playwright involved. Does
the playwright speak for the haves or for
the have-nots? for continued growth in
economic productivity or for the redistri­
bution of incomes? for the day laborer
or for the established professional? Is the
playwright a believer in increased mate­
rial benefits for people or is he more con­
cerned with preservation of the natural
ecology? Does he believe that resources
should be used for the benefit of the
present generation or should they be
preserved for future ones? In short, de­
pending on one's views, it is easy to
select assumptions so that the picture
of the future is optimistic or pessimistic.
The playwright may even use an en­
ergy scenario to support social doctrines
such as the present administration's ap­
parent preference for government regu­
lation over individual market choice,
centralized over dispersed responsibility,
and a lifestyle of modest expectations.
Therefore, we should not confuse dra­
matically publicized hypothetical sce­
narios (such as those surrounding the
recent national gala Sun Day) with pre­
dictions reliable enough for sound policy
making. As a student of the history of
energy and resource development, I know
that predictions made many decades ago
concerning the future of these matters
for the United States did not turn out to
be valid.
Fueling electricity growth

Let us now consider the role of electricity
in our total energy structure. Electricity
generation is an intermediate link that
converts fossil fuel or uranium ore (or
any other energy resource) into a versatile
and available form of energy. Electricity

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

29

 use has grown at about twice the rate of
total energy use in most industrial coun­
tries. It has always been more expensive
on a pure energy basis than the primary
fuels from which it is made, but the effi­
ciency with which electricity is used and
the unique convenience of its use has
been its biggest contribution to the con­
sumer, making it competitively desirable.
If electricity use continues to grow in
the next 25 years as it has in the past, we
will be producing almost four times as
much electricity annually as we are today,
and roughly half of our primary fuel en­
ergy will be going into the manufacture
of electricity. With much more modest
expectations, three times present produc­
tion levels is a conservative planning tar­
get for 25 years hence.
To approach such high growth will
require every electricity production op­
tion available to use. Consider what those
options might be. Right now we have hy­
droelectric power, oil, gas, coal, nuclear,
and some geothermal. Assuming that
the oil and gas increments remain about
constant, that hydroelectric grows some­
what, and that the alternative sources
such as geothermal and solar develop,
approximately 80% of all U.S. electricity
produced 25 years from now will have to
come from a combination of coal and
nuclear resources. Arbitrarily splitting
this equally so that 40% comes from coal
and 40% from nuclear, coal production
will have to be almost four times as much
as it is today-an enormous though not
impossible target. The number of nuclear
plants needed can be built with the manu­
facturing facilities we have today, so nu­
clear capacity would not be plant-limited,
but the uranium ore supply remains un­
certain and the breeder would have to
be part of such a system.
New energy fuels

But what about the innovative electricity
technologies that are based on renewable
energy sources? Direct solar radiation,
the temperature variations of ocean
waters, winds, waves, biomass, and the
earth's heat-all these are fantastically

30

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

challenging because the total energy re­
sources around the earth's surface are far
beyond any foreseeable needs of the
human race.
Unfortunately, they all have a similar
difficulty: they are dilute and therefore
involve large-area installations to collect
their energy content for electricity gener­
ation. For example, there is an enormous
amount of geologic heat stored in the
earth's mantle, but the only fraction that
is easily available to us is that from a
few geothermal steam wells. Even these
are geographically limited and not easy
to exploit, although they have been an
electricity source since 1904. The heat of
the earth's rock may some day be tapped,
but so far the engineering problems are
large.
Solar electricity has similar problems.
For example, solar-thermal electric
plants collect and concentrate energy
from the sun to operate a heat engine
that is functionally similar to the equip­
ment in a fossil- or nuclear-fueled power
plant. But the capital cost of the solar
collection surface area is an additional
major component, analogous to the costs
of fuel and the fuel delivery system of a
conventional plant.
The difference between the costs for
dilute and concentrated resources is
basic. That is, the quantities of material
required for dilute energy collection are
large, and they are not likely to be much
reduced, primarily because of the land
surface area that must be covered. How­
ever, although solar electric plants will
be more expensive than fossil- or
nuclear-fueled plants, higher fossil fuel
costs may eventually justify their entry
into power networks to displace some
intermediate-load plants.
The feasibility for most of the dilute
energy resources has not yet been estab­
lished. The challenge is not simply to
demonstrate technical feasibility; work­
able systems must also be economically
feasible. In the United States, we now
apply about one-sixth of our annual bus­
iness investment to the electric utility
industry. Any multiple increase in util-

ity investment would dramatically affect
both the cost of electricity and the avail­
ability of capital for other U.S. indus­
tries. Neither prospect is likely to be
acceptable.
The role ol time

There is general professional agreement
on the basic building blocks that will
structure our energy future during the
next 25 years. These building blocks
exist today, and it takes a long time
to change any of them substantially,
whether they are political, economic,
social, or technical. Physical systems
such as housing, transportation, and fac­
tories take decades to replace. And un­
less a new technical system or process
is ready to go commercial now, it is likely
to play only a minor role in the next
quarter century.
It is on this subject of societal and
technical lead time that we are most often
misled by the glib urging of panaceas and
miracle cures for our energy problems.
Expectation of a technical miracle is an
easy excuse to defer a difficult decision.
But by confusing what might be avail­
able 25 years down the road with what
is available today, some of our political
figures often describe "pie in the sky"
as though it is about to come out of the
oven and be ready to eat at any moment
-and, in effect, say there is no urgency
for choosing from the current menu. Un­
fortunately, if the pie in the sky takes
longer to bake, malnutrition will result.
Today's ready fuels

The possibility of energy malnutrition
motivates the electricity industry in its
support of the nuclear power option.
The industry believes that nuclear power
is an available and economical electricity
source, and the one with least environ­
mental impact. This latter point startles
many, but the fact is that in either its
measured or its projected impacts on
ecology, public safety, and health, nu­
clear power is without question the safest
and cleanest of all our energy sources,
including hydroelectricity.

 The publicized nuclear power issues,
such as reactor safety, radioactive waste
disposal, and nuclear proliferation, are
issues that have clear technical solutions
with extremely low hypothetical risks. In
30 years there has never been an instance
where nuclear power or any of its activi­
ties has adversely affected public health.
In nuclear power the utility industry sees
a system that meets all the requirements
we seek today-namely, low-cost elec­
tricity and minimal environmental im­
pact.
This is not to say that the other pri­
marily available option-coal-is not
acceptable also, but the combustion of
coal produces effluents that are con­
trolled only with difficulty. There are dif­
ferences of professional opinion as to
whether these effluents are now being
sufficiently removed to be acceptable.
However, compared with those from
nuclear power plants, coal combustion
effluents represent real environmental
issues rather than hypothetical ones,
and they are key factors in the design
and construction of coal-burning power
plants.
The basis for utility R&D

Where does all this leave us in judging
what would be a wise national energy
policy? Those of us who share the re­
sponsibility for delivering energy do not
have a crystal ball that permits us to
lay out a single, simple course. Perhaps
we know too much. We recognize all the
uncertainties, and for this reason most
of us believe that the nation should in­
voke a multiplicity of energy supply
options. First and foremost, of course,
we must learn to use energy more effi­
ciently. I think we are already well
embarked on that course and we can
probably save about 20% of our future
needs by such technical conservation.
But the rest of our energy supply will
have to come from the development of
everything we have-finding more oil
and gas, recovering oil from shale, de­
veloping coal resources and converting
them to gas and liquid fuels, using nu-

clear power (including the breeder re­
actor), and commercializing any renew­
able resource that can be made credibly
competitive.
Certainly we should try to prove out
all the advanced technologies. Some of
them may have to await a scientific dis­
covery to bring them into the realm of
either engineering or economic feasibil­
ity. Nuclear fusion is an example. Also,
we must recognize that as energy from
conventional sources increases in cost,
we can justify the use of resources that
previously were too expensive. The best
example of this is shale oil, an indige­
nous resource with enormous rockbound
reserves, but one where costs and envi­
ronmental problems associated with re­
covery are so far a seriously inhibiting
factor.
Cooperation to resolve uncertainty

In summary, we face a situation with
so many uncertainties that nobody-and
I underscore the term -nobody has the
knowledge to choose a single course for
the future, especially not an unproven
one. It is easy to enthuse about pie in
the sky if one does not have to be around
to deliver it. However, it is socially irre­
sponsible leadership that simultaneously
worships the sun and exorcises the atom,
that generally disapproves of the energy
sources we can expand now, while prais­
ing those that have not been developed.
We face important energy supply deci­
sions now, and political diversions can
only serve to delay meeting our real
needs.
We cannot pursue the long-term ap­
proaches to energy issues without wide­
spread cooperation, but false hopes
prevent the formation of support, distort
understanding, and destroy faith in any
professional authority. The energy issue
will be with us for a long time, and it
is social and political as well as techni­
cal. Meanwhile, the energy industry
needs to develop all available options be­
cause the alternative-restricted activity
-means forfeiting the use of abundant
energy to open new societal frontiers.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

31

 Louis Austin: Down-Home Realist
The chief executive of Texas Util ities Company lets fly
at some pet targets : overreg u lati o n , activist l awye rs,
interference with the free m arket, ivory tower researc h , and

L

ouis Austin was born i n Tennes­
see, educated in Alabama, and
rose to prominence in Texas. He
learned about coal underground as a
summer laborer in a Pennsylvania coal
mine while a student of mining engineer­
ing. And he got the hang of how to run
a power plant as chief engineer aboard
a Navy destroyer in World War II.
As chairman and chief executive of
Texas Utilities Co. in Dallas, Austin's
southern origins, hands-on experience,
pragmatic values, and disarming down­
home charm have served him well. As
a member of EPRI's Board of Directors
(his term expired in May), Austin was
always well prepared-and usually heard
from at Board meetings.
Austin joined Texas Utilities in 1953
to head its coal operation, became pres­
ident of Texas Power & Light Co., and
rose to his present post in 1975. Besides
the three operating electric utility com­
panies that form Texas Utilities, the
system includes a service ·organization,
a fuel company, a generating company,
a coal and uranium mining operation in
New Mexico, and a company engaged in
the development of energy resources and
technology.
The system serves about four million
people, roughly one-third of the state's

32

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

population, in an area that stretches from
the sandhills of the far west to the piney
woods of the east and from the Red River
on the Texas-Oklahoma border to the
center of the state. It's a region colorful
in history and robust in growth-frontier
drama, oil booms, and now throbbing
centers of commerce and industry-that
has come to depend on reliable, low-cost
electric power.
Symbolic of the area's economic vigor
are such landmarks as the sprawling, ul­
tramodern Dallas-Fort Worth Regional
Airport; Dallas's SO-story Reunion Tower
with its lighted geodesic dome housing
a revolving restaurant and observation
deck; and the sleek, gold-tinted glass­
sheathed 2001 Bryan Tower building,
where Texas Utilities has its offices. In his
roomy, quietly decorated corner office on
the nineteenth floor, Lou Austin sat com­
fortably in sport coat and slacks and
shared some of his views with the Journal.
Decries overregulation

One of those views (though not to be
taken literally) is written, framed, and
prominently displayed in Austin's office.
It's a line from Shakespeare's Henry IV,
Act 4, Scene 2: "The first thing we do,
let's kill all the lawyers." Austin believes
that "endless debate over such questions

as 'How safe is safe?' and 'How clean is
clean?' is stopping us from developing
our best available energy sources." He
quickly adds, "We have too many law­
yers in our society. And lawyers have
always gotten paid for debating."
Austin is convinced that "technologi­
cally, we have the brains and the creative
minds in this country to design and build
safe nuclear power plants and to mine
and burn coal in an environmentally
acceptable way." In his view, "Human
law that inhibits strip mining, coal burn­
ing, nuclear construction, marketplace
pricing, and slurry pipelines is counter­
productive to keeping the price of energy
down. It is a crime against the con­
sumer." Austin makes the point that
"geologic law dictates that coal and
nuclear be our future energy sources."
Austin is on the board of a new
California-based environmental group
called Resolve, whose aim is to settle en­
vironmental disputes through mediation
and thus avoid the traditional, time-con­
suming adversary proceedings. "Human
law that creates formats where technical
decisions are required to be made in ad­
versary proceedings is wrong," he con­
tends. "Courtroom adversary proceed­
ings were created by society to preserve
our freedoms and to see that justice is

 Louis Austin (right)
and Power Superin­
tendent John Carlson
(center) discuss the
intricacies of the
scrubber control room
of Texas Utilities'
Martin Lake (Unit 1)
lignite-fueled power
plant with Texas
Congressman James
Mattox.

a ripoff of the public, because it's the

done. But we must find a better way to

in there behind the draglines and fill in

make

technical decisions," he says. "The

the holes and sow wheat or grass,"

customer that ends up paying for these

very nature of adversary procedures is to

Austin explains. He likes to compare

controls."

create delay. And as lawyers maneuver

strip mining and reclamation to human

Austin goes on to say, "Now we've

(with their fee meters ticking away),

surgery. "Just as a skilled surgeon can

even got something they call BACT -

the poor consumer catches the whole

make an incision, remove a tumor, and

best available control technology. Every

burden."

sew you up again like new," says Austin,

time somebody comes up with a better

Austin recognizes that "a monopoly

"we take the skin of the earth, make a

way to control flue gas, you've got to use

has to have some regulation." But his

skilled incision, take out the coal, and

it- so you're never meeting the stan­

blood pressure rises from what he con­

then put the land back together so it can

dards." He offers an analogy: "It's like

siders overregulation. For example, he

be farmed in a year or so." The company

trying to meet standards for a clean shirt

sees the latest federal strip-mining act

now leases the reclaimed land to farmers

while better detergents are being de­

passed last August as "nothing but a

and eventually will sell these holdings.

veloped. You've got to wash the shirt

relief and retirement program for activist

"The environmentalists are right in in­

over and over again. Why, you end up

lawyers." Says Austin, "We don't need

sisting we shouldn't 'rape' the land,"

wearing the damn thing out just washing

this strip-mining law because everybody

Austin admits. "But they're wrong when

it." He makes clear, "I'm for the envi­

is reclaiming now. The country should

they say we shouldn't mine it at all. We

ronment. My grandkids and I have to live

look after its environment and we should

ought to mine the coal, but we ought to

in the environment like everybody else.

mine it right."

But I'm against this

be regulated to reclaim. But it's all the

overregulation. The

rules, procedures, delays that I object to."

Then there's the Clean Air Act. "Clean

Texas Utilities Generating Co. has filed

air standards should be set by the doctors

suit against the Secretary of the Interior,

in the National Health Service, not by

as have several others, challenging the

laboratory technicians and lawyers in

Nuclear licensing delays

the Environmental Protection Agency,"

Regulatory changes, together with infla­

Austin believes.

tion, have substantially increased the

new strip-mining regulations.

Good reclamation record

"And the standards

ought to apply to ambient air levels,"

environment will be so clean it'll make
you sick."

estimated

cost of constructing Texas

Texas Utilities has a commendable rec­

he adds. "Then it should be left to the

Utilities' Comanche Peak Unit 1 nuclear

ord of restoring surface-mined land to

individual company to decide how it's

power plant, which will be the first

productivity. Under way for more than

going to meet those standards, rather

nuclear plant in Texas when completed

six years, its reclamation program has

than the EPA or some other agency or­

in 1981 (a second 1150-MW unit is

transformed mined-out coal seams into

dering companies to put in scrubbers and

scheduled

wheat fields and grasslands. "We just go

all that," he says heatedly, "which is just

"Nuclear is one of the biggest areas of

for

completion

in

1983).

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

33

 Winter wheat is grown on land reclaimed from
the Big Brown lignite strip mine operated by
Texas Utilities. Dragline on an operating mine
can be seen at upper right.

Louis Austin at a Texas Utilities briefing and
Q&A session with selected employees, who
will act as conference leaders in the com­
pany's series of information programs on such
matters as employee benefits and alternative
energy sources.

overregulation," Austin says, "and we
don't intend to build another nuclear
power plant, at least until I retire."
He notes, "You can't blame all this on
the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
They've been forced into some of their
delaying action by intervenors. And all
of this has come about because of the
laws written by Congress. What it has
done is to create so many uncertainties
for the nuclear industry that there is no
way to accurately estimate the cost of
a plant."
Austin complains that the rules keep
changing for licensing nuclear plants. He
would like to see the NRC come up with
a standard, approved design for nuclear
plants that the industry could build to
and thereby be assured of licensing
"without having hearings on it."
As for the revised procedures for li­
censing nuclear plants that the Carter ad­
ministration has submitted to Congress,
Austin has a set of project management

34

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1978

flowcharts for construction of the Co­
manche Peak Unit 1 plant that show
graphically how the proposed new proce­
dures actually complicate and prolong the
process. And what especially riles Austin
about the proposed regulations is a pro­
vision for public funding of citizen inter­
venors. But he says hopefully, "We plan
to work with those who are considering
the new legislation in an effort to make
changes so we can live with it."
Ahead in fuel conversion

Texas Utilities has been ahead of the
regulators in converting its energy
sources from oil and natural gas to coal.
As recently as 1971, the system's entire
kilowatthour generation was fueled by
natural gas. Last year, natural gas ac­
counted for about 66% of its kilowatt­
hours, while lignite was used to produce
33% and oil, just under 1%. Lignite is ex­
pected to fuel 50% of the kilowatthours
generated this year.

Texas Utilities was the first to use lig­
nite as a fuel in a major power plant,
firing a utility boiler with lignite in 1926.
But lignite, a low-grade coal that abounds
in eastern Texas, could not compete in
price with natural gas that was being
flared as a waste product in the 1930s and
early 1940s. Although natural gas fueled
the Texas industrial economy into the
early 1970s, Texas Utilities held onto its
lignite leases. And by the mid-1960s
when the price of natural gas had risen to
about 20¢/106 Btu, Texas Utilities found
it could mine lignite at a competitive
price. It began building power plants at
the mine sites, producing lignite for about
14¢/106 Btu (now 40-50¢ /10 6 Btu).
The company has since won national
recognition for its construction of lignite
plants to reduce dependence on natural
gas. It was described as "having an eye
to the future, a future that came sooner
than expected" by the National Society
of Professional Engineers in naming

 Monticello Units 1 and 2 among the
10 top engineering projects of 1976. The
first of four 750-MW units at the Martin
Lake plant was completed last year.
When the fourth unit goes on-line in
1983, Martin Lake will be the largest
known lignite-fueled power plant in the
world. Other lignite plants scheduled
for construction through 1985 will add
some 5400 MW to the system's capacity.
"Conversion to lignite has meant
increased rates for our customers be­
cause we had to build more expensive
plants," Austin notes, "but having now
switched to coal and gotten over the
crunch of investing in new plants, we
are better off than if we were still using
all that gas." And the conversion to
lignite has since saved customers of the
Texas Utilities system millions of dollars
in fuel costs, he points out.
Praise and caution

Austin was one of three EPRI Board
members who directed a year-long study
of the Institute's effectiveness (com­
pleted last November), an experience
that sharpened his insights into EPRI.
"To my knowledge, there has never been
any operation that has come so far in so
few years," Austin observes. "You just

have to say that all those people out
there are really top-notch. But, there are
some things we need to guard against."
Austin is adamant about EPRI staying
out of specific research that is already
being done by manufacturers. "EPRI
should leave the free market alone," he
insists, "and do only the research that
nobody else is doing or nobody else
wants to. If a manufacturer is doing his
own research, then EPRI shouldn't touch
it with a IO-foot pole." Nor does Austin
want to see all the industry manufactur­
ers "dump their research on EPRI." He
believes that vendors still should be
doing their own major hardware
research. "What I don't want to see
happen in this country is a situation
where, 20 years from now, the only
turbine design available here will be an
EPRI design."
Austin believes the approach that
will most benefit the industry and its
customers is for EPRI to continue to work
closely with utility representatives
through the Institute's advisory structure
of committees and task forces. "There is
a potential weakness out there at EPRI
that the Institute will become an ivory
tower, bureaucratic, university-type re­
search outfit that would do 'interesting

research' its staff would like to do, but
wouldn't be worth a damn," he says.
"Sure, it's slow and it's time-consuming
and there are confrontations, but the only
way the industry can keep its reins on
EPRI so it does the practical, hardnosed
research that is needed is to keep this
industry advisory setup in force."
Austin adds, "EPRI's Board must have
guts enough to maintain a strong hold
on what research is done or not done,
but still be sensitive enough to listen
to what the Institute's Advisory Council
has to say." (EPRI's Advisory Council is a
panel of prominent scientists, educators,
environmentalists, business executives,
and regulatory commissioners that pro­
vides EPRI with viewpoints from outside
the utility industry.)
Homespun team worker

Just below the line from Shakespeare
that hangs on Austin's office wall, is
another graphic rendering of a view he
holds. Its legend says, "None of us is as
smart as all of us." Austin believes in
teamwork, in collective wisdom, in peo­
ple pulling together to achieve their com­
mon goals-the utilities, the regulators,
Congress, the consumers, EPRI. And the
lawyers1 too.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

35

 At the Institute

Groundbreaking for
Coal Liquefaction Plant

federal government that it will surely
need liquids, preferably of domestic ori­
gin, synthetic or natural, to supply fuel
for the 200,000 MW of electric generating
capacity that will still require oil or gas in
1990," Culler pointed out.
He cited an estimate that the utility
industry's need for liquid fuels in the
next 10 years will reach about three mil­
lion barrels of oil a day. "After 1985 there
is a possibility that this will level off, but
only if plans for generating capacity em­
ploying different fuels are initiated now,
with the assurance that other fuels-coal
and nuclear, in particular-will be ap­
proved by the various federal and state
regulatory bodies."
Unfortunately, Culler noted, these
alternative fuels are not now clearly ac­
ceptable. "Without substantial quantities
of domestically produced coal liquids,
we shall have to import ever-increasing
quantities of oil," he said, adding that
prudent planning urges a strong commit­
ment to the coal liquids option.

EPRI's largest individual research com­
mitment, a $40 million contribution to the
effort to produce liquid fuels from coal,
entered a new phase in mid-May with
groundbreaking ceremonies for a coal
liquefaction pilot plant in Baytown,
Texas. Other sponsors of the $240 million
research program are DOE, The Carter
Oil Co. (an Exxon affiliate), Phillips
Petroleum Co., Atlantic Richfield Co.,
and the Japan Coal Liquefaction Develop­
ment Co., Ltd., a group of 11 Japanese
companies.
The project is scheduled to run until
mid-1982 and is being managed by Exxon
Research and Engineering Co. It involves
the construction and operation of the
pilot plant, which will be capable of liq­
uefying 250 tons of coal a day, as well as
bench-scale and engineering research.
The plant will use the Exxon Donor
Solvent process, a product of work begun
independently by Exxon in 1966. In this
process coal is liquefied in a noncatalytic
reactor at moderate temperature and
Projected Increase in Coal
pressure. The hydrogen required for the
Demand Challenges Utilities
liquefaction reaction is supplied both in
gaseous form and by transfer from a "A continued growth in electricity con­
donor solvent, an internally generated sumption and a projected decrease in the
coal stream liquid that is catalytically availability of oil and natural gas for
hydrogenated in a separate reactor before electricity production mean that coal
must remain the keystone of utility en­
being mixed with the coal feed.
According to EPRI President Floyd ergy fuels," said EPRI's Richard Zeren at
Culler, Jr., who spoke at the ground­ the Electro/78 Electronic Show and Con­
breaking ceremonies, the electric utility vention in Boston in late May.
industry will continue to need clean,
Zeren, manager of Program Integration
storable liquid fuels in the years ahead. and Evaluation in EPRI's Fossil Fuel and
"The utility industry recently advised the Advanced Systems Division, said the
36

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

projected increase in coal use will chal­
lenge utilities to obtain approval for the
design and construction of
power plants while complying with in­
creasingly stringent environmental
lations and ensuring adequate
supplies.
To help meet this challenge,
said, EPRI has placed a major emphasis
on improving coal-fired power plants.
For example, EPRI is surveying utility
experience with lime/ limestone
oxide scrubbers and has issued guide­
lines for the improved design and opera­
tion of scrubber components that most
often fail. In another effort, EPRI is work­
ing on a coal combustor that will help
reduce nitrogen oxide pollutants by con­
trolling the combustion temperature and
the air-fuel mixture.
Zeren also reported on a high-intensity
ionizer developed under EPRI contract,
calling it "a major advance in the control
of ash particles in power plant stack gas."
The ionizer puts a high electric charge on
the ash particles so that conventional
electrostatic filters can collect them
efficiently.
In addition to improvements in con­
ventional plants, new systems will be
required as environmental restraints on
burning coal become more severe. "Ad­
vanced coal-fueled power systems being
developed by EPRI, such as fluidized-bed
combustion and gasification-combined­
cycle systems, may allow utilities to work
within the restraints at costs competitive
with or below those of conventional coal
plants," Zeren said. EPRI is also develop­
ing a range of clean, storable coal-derived
fuels, both solid and liquid, for use in

 peaking and intermediate-load generat­
ing plants.
"The projected role of coal for electric­
ity generation justifies a multiple-path
research and development strategy to
provide utilities with options for using
this resource," Zeren asserted. He added,
however, that the great bulk of electricity
consumed before the year 2000 will be
from conventional nuclear and coal-fired
power plants with improved emissions
control technology. "Other power­
generating options cannot make a sub­
stantial commercial impact before then."

CEGB Director Visits EPRI
David Silverleaf, director o f research planning
for the Central Electricity Generating Board
(CEGB), United Kingdom, met with EPRI divi­
sion representatives recently to review various
aspects of the EPRI-CEGB technical informa­
tion exchange p rogram. Through his visit,
Dr. Silverleaf obtained a better understanding
of EPRl's programs and objectives, while also
exploring the possibility of new cooperative
activities with EPRI. As part of the EPRI-CEGB

program, technical information is exchanged,
both formally and informally. In addition, a
CEGB employee was on loan at EPRI, and at
least two EPRI divisions are now funding proj­
ects at CEGB facilities. Pictured here with
Dr. Silverleaf (center) are Robert Uhler (left),
director of the Energy Analysis Department,
and Walter Esselman (right), department
manager of Program Plans and Technical
Assessment.

Walter Piulle, EPRI project manager (left), and
Donald Teixeira, manager of the EPRI Air
Quality Control Program (right), use a model
to explain the design of the Emissions Control
and Test Facility to Joseph Palomba, Jr., tech­
nical secretary of the Colorado Air Pollution
Control Commission and p resident of the Air
Pollution Control Association. Palomba was at
EPRI recently to get better acquainted with the
EPRI staff and the EPRI research program.

The Emissions Control and Test Facility is a
$4.5 million facility located at the Arapahoe
Steam Electric Generating Station of Public
Service Co. of Colorado. The purpose of the
facility is to provide utilities and their sup­
pliers with a major facility to support the devel­
opment and demonstration of equipment for
better collection and measurement of particu­
lates from fossil-fuel-fired power plants.

Compressed-Air Storage
Symposium Held

During a recent symposium in Pacific Grove,
California, Harro Lorenzen of KBB, Inc., Wash­
ington, D.C., described the construction work
his firm is performing on the salt cavern for the
Huntdorf, West Germany, compressed-air
storage (GAS) project. Sponsored by EPRI,
DOE, and Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laborato­
ries, the meeting p rovided a forum for GAS
specialists from industry, universities, and
government to exchange information on the
state of the art and on new development and
research needs of GAS technology. The
Huntdorf project is being funded and managed
by the Nordwestdeutsche Kraftwerke Aktien­
gesellschaft of West Germany.

Correction
The first German nuclear cargo ship, NS
Otto Hahn, was designed and planned by
the Gesellschaft fur Kernenergieverwer­
tung in Schiffbau und Schiffahrt (GKSS:
Society for the Utilization of Nuclear
Energy in Shipbuilding and Navigation),
not the Institut fiir Werkstofftechnologie
(Materials Technology Institute) as stated
on page 28 in the June issue of the Journal.

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1978

37

 Project Highlights

New Approach to Solar Conversion
A novel approach to the conversion of
sunlight into electricity is being investi­
gated for use in solar power plants.
This approach involves the use of
thermophotovoltaic (TPV) converters,
which are related to the conventional
photovoltaic solar cells that have been
used for 20 years to provide electric
power to space satellites.
Solar cells convert sunlight directly
into electricity by transforming energy
from sunlight into electric charge motion,
causing an electric current. In a solar TPV
converter, however, a metallic heating
element- a radiator-is heated by con­
centrated sunlight and serves as an inter­
mediary between the sun and the cells.
This heating element radiates primarily
infrared light, to which the cells are most
responsive.

Interest in TPV conversion dates back
to the early 1960s, when the U.S. Army
considered using it for silent, fossil­
fired portable generators. Interest waned
in the early 1970s, however, because sys­
tem performance failed to reach expected
levels .
The recent work of a Stanford Univer­
sity research group directed by Richard
M. Swanson indicates that TPV devices
have the potential to perform well
enough to be used in solar power plants.
The group, which is under contract to
EPRI, has achieved efficiencies of 26%
in converting incandescent light into
electric energy-up from 12% a year ago
- and has outlined a program with strong
prospects for reaching 35% conversion
efficiencies. Efficiencies that high will
probably be required to make the use of

the devices in large power plants eco­
nomically feasible, explains EPRI Project
Manager Edgar DeMeo.
Swanson has succeeded in recycling
infrared energy unused by the TPV cells,
which has led to the attainment of the
high conversion efficiencies. Because of
these encouraging results, EPRI plans to
initiate projects addressing other key
technical issues in TPV power plant
development, including a conceptual de­
sign of the overall system. In addition,
discussions between EPRI and DOE are
expected to identify TPV program areas
for joint research efforts.
R&D funding for EPRI's Solar Program
is expected to total $25-$30 million over
the next five years.

ments, the report says, could lead to an
energy shortage in the free world and
substantially higher oil prices.
Such a scenario is unlikely, however,
according to the report. Instead, during
these years economic growth will prob­
ably slow down significantly from the
post-World War II rate, and there will
probably be substantial increases in the
production of nonoil energy resources as
well as more efficient energy use. Rather

than an oil shortage, the free world can
expect a gradual transition from oil to
nonoil resources to meet energy needs.
According to EPRI Project Manager
Thomas Browne, researchers at the Pe­
troleum Industry Research Foundation,
Inc., and the University of Arizona ex­
amined the free world oil situation for
the periods 1976-1990 and 1990-2005
under different combinations of world
economic growth and energy conserva-

Oil Shortage Unlikely
A global oil shortage may be avoided
for the rest of the century, according to
Outlook for World Oil Into the 2 7 st Century
(EA-745) .
The most vulnerable period will be
from the late 1980s to 2005, when an oil
shortage could occur if there were rapid
world economic growth, extended delays
in the development of other energy re­
sources, and little or no improvement
in energy conservation. These develop-

38

EPRI JOURNAL July/August 1978

 tion. The analysis was based on eco­
nomic, technical, and natural resource
factors; it did not consider political
factors.
The report forecasts that if there is
moderate world economic growth and
moderate improvement in energy con­
servation, the free world will need 32.8
million barrels of OPEC oil a day by
1985 and 35.8 million by 1990. It will

need about 36.6 million barrels a day
by 1985 and 43.1 million by 1990 if there
is rapid economic growth and moderate
improvement in energy conservation,
and about 41.1 million barrels by 1985
and 51.7 million by 1990 if there is rapid
economic growth and no significant im­
provement in energy conservation.
U.S. oil import requirements are fore­
cast to increase from the present 8

million barrels a day to 9.4-12 million
by 1985 and to 10-14.5 million by 1990.
Browne emphasizes that the study
assumes the United States will continue
to expand its efforts to produce domestic
oil and gas and to develop synthetic fuels
from shale and coal. He warns that fail­
ure to do so "could result in a poorer
oil supply situation in the 1990s than
the one foreseen in this study."

EPRI Negotiates 43 Contracts

Number

Title

Duration

Funding

($000)

Contractor/
EPRI Project
Manager

Fossil Fuel and Advanced Systems Division

Title

RP1 1 85-1

Evaluation of Turbine
Blade-Root Designs to
Minimize Fatigue Failure

1 year

98.6

Rochester
Institute of
Technology
J. Parkes

RP1 1 95-2

Effects of Acid Addition
for Scale Control on
Geothermal Field and
Plant Systems Operation

3 months

22.0

Systems,
Science &
Software
V. Roberts

RP1 258-2

Absorption/Steam
Stripping - R ESOX
Engineering

20 months

333.5

StearnsRoger, Inc.
S. Dalton

RP1 265-1

Failure Cause Analysis
i
- Pulver zers

64. 7

KVB, Inc.
J. Dimmer

RP1 274-1

Utilization of Heat
Rejected From Ma1or
Transformer Substations

Mossbauer Effect Spectroscopic Study of
Pyritic Sulfur in Coal

1 5 months

67 .0

General Electric Co.
W Slaughter

RP779-1 6

Coal Structure and Coal
Liquefaction

6 months

1 0 .0

Pennsylvania
State University
W Rovesti

RP779-1 7

Evaluation of Letdown
Valve Materials for Coal
Liquefaction Systems

7 months

45.0

Battelle,
Columbus
Laboratories
J. Stringer

RP835-2

Effects of NH 3 -Based
NO, Control on Air
Preheaters

9 months

RP979-2

Fluidized Bed
Combustion-CorrosionErosion Tests

1 year

21 9 . 0

RP1 030-4

Engineering and
Economic Evaluations of
Coal P reparation
Concepts

1 year

30.0

Kaiser Engineers, Inc.
K. Clifford

R P494-3

R P 1 030-5

Conceptual Design for
Coal-Cleaning Test
Facility

3 months

42.0

Birtley Englneering, a
division of
Sverd rup &
Parcel and
Associates,
Inc.
K. Clifford

RP1 083-1

Analysis of Advanced
Compressed-Air Storage
Systems

13 months

95.5

Air
Preheater
Co., Inc.
D. Giovanni
National Coal
Board
J. Stringer

Central
Electricity
Generating
Board
T Schneider

Contractor/
EPRI Project
Manager

Number

RP267-2

1 0.0

Funding

Duration

1 year

($000)

1 6 months

284.5

Evaluation of Feedback
Between Coolant Heat
Transfer and Cladding
Swelling

5 months

25.0

Rowe &
Associates
Inc.
R. Oehlberg

RP620-27

Liquid Metal Fast
Breeder Reactor Plant
Design

5 months

21 0. 0

Stone &
Webster
Engineering
Corp.
G. Baston

R P623-4

Evaluation of Alternate
Steam Generator Materials
and Designs Under
Varied Water Chemistry
Conditions

3 years

354.5

Combustion
Engineering,
Inc.
S. Laskowski

RP695-2

Review of Advanced
Analytic Method
Developments

9 months

1 2 .0

Banerjee &
Associates
Consultants.
Inc.
L. Agee

20.3

Department of
Energy
0. Ozer

City of Seattle,
Department of
Lighting
E. Ehlers

Nuclear Power Division

RP1 1 3 1 -1

Particulate and Trace
Element Emission
Characteristics of OilFired Utility Boilers

4 months

710

Consolidated
Edison Co. of
New York, I n c.
M. McElroy

RP707-2

Sorbent Requirements
for a Gulf Coast LigniteFired Atmospheric
Fluidized-Bed
Combustion Power Plant

4 months

1 2 .0

Westinghouse
Electric
Corp.
C. McGowin

Evaluation of Heavy
Actinide Cross-Section
Data for Evaluated
Nuclear Data File

6 months

RP1 1 79-1

RP894-4

Limiting-Factor Analysis
of High-Availability
Nuclear Plants

1 year

EPRI JOURNAL

340.0

Combustion
Engineering,
Inc.
R. Swanson

July/ August 1 978

39

 Duration

Number

Title

RP960-1

Evaluation of ThermalHydraulic Effects on
Power Distribution in
BWRs

5 months

Steam Generator Code
Development

1 year

Steam Generator Code
Development

3 months

R P 1 066-1

R P 1 066-2

Funding
($000)

49.9

1 96.0

1 1 .4

Contractor/
EPRI Pro1ect
Manager

Nuclear
Associates
International,
Inc.
A. Long
Cham of North
America, Inc.
J P. Sursock
Combustion
Engineering,
Inc., Power
Systems
Group
J P. Sursock

RP1 1 60-1

Basic Investigation
Qualification of SingleChannel Countercurrent
Flooding Models

1 year

39.0

University of
California at
Be rkeley
B. Sun

R P 1 1 66-2

Evaluation of Ginna
Steam Generator Tube

4 months

49.0

Westinghouse
Electric
Corp.
J Mundis

R P 1 1 73-1

Applications of FiberOptics Links Between
Plant Multiplexed
Instruments and Control
Computer System

1 year

1 07.0

E-Systems,
Inc.
R. Swanson

R P 1 230-1

Effects of Steam
Generator Performance
on PWR System Safety

9 months

1 00 . 6

lntermountain
Technologies
Inc.
R. Whitesel

Number

Title

Duration

R P1 289-1

Transformer Life
Characteristics

33 months

607.0

General
Electric Co.
8. Bernstein

RP1 289-2

Basic Research on
Transformer Life
Characteristics

1 8 months

458.5

Westinghouse
Electric Corp.
8. Bernstein

RP7872-1

Cable Oil Study

25 months

490.0

General
Electric Co.
S. Kozak

1 5 months

342.9

University of
Denver
J Searls

Energy Analysis and Environment Division
RP1 1 05-1

Integ rated Supply
Analysis System for the
U ranium Mining and
Milling Industry

RP1 1 57-1

Animal Toxicologic
Studies on I nhaled
Metal-Sulfite
Ae rosols

3 years

243.5

New York
U n iversity
Medical
Center
J Mccarroll

R P 1 22 1 -1

New Coal-Using Techniques and Their Effects
on Coal Markets

1 year

99.9

ICF
Incorporated
J Karaganis

RP1 224-1

Optimization of Aquatic
Microcosm Designs for
Pollution Impact Studies

2 years

203 . 5

RP1 298-1

Analysis of Decision
Methodology Relative to
Adoption of New
Technology

1 year

43.0

MicroEconomic
Associates
A. Halter

RP1 304-1

Determining the Feasibility of Integrating
Water Resource
Constraints Into Energy
Models

7 months

47.5

Stanford
U n iversity
R. Richels

RP1 306-1

Modeling of Dry
Deposition of SO, and
Sulfate Aerosols

8 months

9 1 .3

Aeronautical
Research
Associates of
Princeton, Inc.
G. Hilst

RP1 309-1

Comparison of Indoor
and Outdoor Concentrations of Atmospheric
Pollutants

20 months

490.0

GEOMET, Inc.
R. Perhac

Electrical Systems Division
RP281 -4

Prototype Fault Current
Limiter

2 years

736.7

Gould Inc.
R. Kennon

RP993-2

Vacuum Arc
Commutating Switch

1 3 months

1 1 7.0

Gould Inc.
A. Kennon

R P 1 285-2

Detection of HighImpedance Faults on
Distribution Circuits

1 5 months

207.0

Hughes
Research
Laboratories
H. Songster

RP1 287-1

Development of
Improved Boring
Equipment for Installing
Underground Distribution Cables and
Conduits

724 . 1

Flow
Industries,
Inc.
T. Kendrew

40

EPRI JOURNAL

1 year

J u ly/ August 1 978

Contractor;
EPRI Project
Manager

Funding
($000)

University of
California at
Berkeley
R. Kawaratani

 Washington Report

Nuclear Waste Management: Looking for the Cure
"Sure, nuclear power sounds like a good

What is the United States doing to

idea. It's clean and has a good track rec­

solve the waste management problem?

power will continue to play an important

ord for safety. But what about the wastes?

Formation of a national policy and plan

role in meeting our energy needs."

ward ensuring that commercial nuclear

What are we doing to dispose of them?"

for disposing of nuclear wastes is a re­

The original DOE task force pointed

From high school students to U.S. con­

sponsibility of the federal government.

out that in addition to DOE input a suc­
cessful nuclear waste management policy

gressmen, questions about nuclear waste

At the present time, attention is focused

management are being asked with in­

on a group that represents 15 federal

should reflect the views of other govern­

creasing frequency and concern when

agencies that have varying degrees of re­

ment agencies, Congress, the states, in­

conversations turn to the topic of nuclear

sponsibility for the problem. Called the

dustry, and the concerned public. In line

power. The issue has high visibility and

Interagency Review Group (IRG), the

with this recommendation, the president

engenders intense public interest. Two

team was established by President Carter

expanded membership in the IRG to

states-California and Maine-have al­

on March 15 of this year as the successor

include the Environmental Protection
Agency, the Office of Management and

ready placed laws on the books prohibit­

to a task force composed primarily of

ing the construction of nuclear plants

DOE officials who reviewed waste man­

Budget, the Council on Environmental

until the waste

agement functions.

Quality, the Office of Science and Tech­

disposal

problem

is

solved. Other states are considering sim­

As described by John Deutch, Director

nology Policy, the National Security

ilar measures. The "Achilles' heel of nu­

of DOE's Office of Energy Research and

Council, the Domestic Policy Staff, the

clear power" is the way

Christian Science

a central figure in both study teams, the

National Aeronautics and Space Admin­

Monitor writer Robert C. Cowan has de­

first group produced the "diagnosis" of

istration, the Arms Control and Disar­

scribed the waste management aspect,

the waste management problem and the

mament Agency, and the departments of

implying that if any one issue may render

IRG will "prescribe the cure." The IRG

State, Interior, Transportation, and Com­

nuclear power unacceptable, waste man­

report is expected on October 1 of this

merce. The Nuclear Regulatory Commis­

agement may be it.

year.

sion was invited to participate as it
deemed appropriate.

The dimensions of the problem can't

Deutch appeared recently before the

be denied. High-level nuclear wastes

House Subcommittee on Fossil and Nu­

Six working groups were established

have accumulated from 35 years of mili­

clear Energy Research and affirmed the

within the IRG to define issues and exam­

tary weapons and naval reactors. Al­

commitment by both the Carter admini­

ine options.

though far less in volume, spent fuel

stration and DOE to meet the waste man­

from the nation's 69 licensed commercial

agement issue head-on.

o Alternative technology strategies

reactors is building up and being stored

"The formation of a credible and

o Federal involvement (licensing, stan­
dards, criteria)

temporarily at reactor sites across the

broadly accepted nuclear waste man­

country. With the administration's deci­

agement policy is a matter of highest

o Defense waste

sion to defer reprocessing of spent fuel

importance," Deutch stated. "There is

and with the National Energy Plan calling

legitimate public concern over our deter­

o Spent-fuel storage/ charges

for increased use of light water reactor

mination to deal with these wastes. An

technology, many utilities face the pros­

effective and responsible nuclear waste

o Transportation issues
o International issues

pect of running out of spent-fuel storage

management program that meets these

To broaden opportunity for input from

capacity.

public concerns is an essential step to-

the public and key groups, the IRG is

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

41

 conducting meetings throughout the
country for discussion of alternatives and
issues. Small group discussions for in­
depth consideration of specific view­
points are being held in Washington,
D.C., with utilities; industry; state and
local governments; environmental, con­
sumer, and other interest groups; the
academic community; Indian tribes; and
Congress. Larger, public meetings are
being held in San Francisco, Boston, and
Denver.
The end product of IRG's work will be
a national radiation waste management
work plan that (according to Deutch)
"will establish procedures and specific
milestones for both programs and legis­
lative action." The work plan will de­
termine how federal agencies will pro­
ceed to dispose of spent-fuel, high-level,
and transuranic wastes; low-level wastes;
uranium mill tailings; and decontamina­
tion and decommissioning wastes.
Once the policy is formed, DOE will
implement it. Specifically, the job will
fall to the newly formed Office of Nu­
clear Waste Management headed by
Robert L. Morgan, who for the past five
years has served as deputy manager of
DOE's Savannah River Operations Of­
fice. As part of a recent reorganization
of the Office of the Assistant Secretary
for Energy Technology and in response
to a specific recommendation of the orig­
inal DOE task force, the waste manage­
ment function was elevated to the status
of a technical program office within En­
ergy Technology. (Previously, the direc-

42

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

tor of the Waste Management Program
had reported to the director of Nuclear
Programs. Now, the head of the office
will report directly to the Assistant Secre­
tary, a change that gives the function
greater visibility and support.) The Of­
fice of Nuclear Waste Management is
responsible for the planning, develop­
ment, and implementation of defense
and civilian nuclear waste processing and
isolation; for spent-fuel storage and
transfer; for the transportation of nuclear
waste materials; and for decommission­
ing and decontamination.
One of the key projects managed by
the office is the proposed waste isolation
pilot plant (WIPP). The facility, which
may be constructed in an underground
salt formation 25 miles east of Carlsbad,
New Mexico, is intended to provide for
the permanent disposal of transuranic
nuclear waste produced by the defense
programs and for experimentation with
other types of waste. Transuranic wastes
are articles contaminated with trans­
uranic elements, such as plutonium,
which remain radioactive for thousands
of years. The March DOE task force re­
port noted that although only a small
quantity of transuranic waste is being
generated by the nuclear power industry,
significant quantities have accumulated
from DOE operations. Some 4 million
cubic feet are expected to have been
stockpiled by 1985, the report states,
enough to cover 94 acres to a depth of 1
foot.
What else WIPP may be used for is

a matter under consideration by DOE
and the IRG. The DOE task force rec­
ommended that the WIPP mission be
expanded to include the demonstration
of disposal on a retrievable basis of up
to 1000 spent-fuel assemblies. This rec­
ommendation is being reviewed and has
been discussed at public meetings in
New Mexico. It is possible that WIPP
may also be used for the permanent dis­
posal of high-level wastes from the de­
fense program. This would require a
formal licensing review, an environ­
mental review, approval of an amend­
ment to the operating license issued by
NRC, and concurrence by the state.
DOE recently announced that a tech­
nical support contract would be nego­
tiated with Westinghouse Electric Corp.
to assist in developing the design of WIPP
and to aid in preparing the required envi­
ronmental and licensing documentation.
If the decision is made to construct WIPP,
DOE has the option to extend the con­
tract to include technical support for
managing the construction and planning
the operation.
Although disposal of nuclear wastes in
a geologic medium (primarily salt) has
been the major focus of U.S. thinking for
waste technology, DOE's Deutch has
recommended that a broad-based R&D
program be maintained "to determine the
viability and practicality of other op­
tions." Among those alternatives, at the
recent House subcommittee hearing he
listed basalt, shale, and granite; seabed
repositories; and space disposal.

 R & D Status Report
FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION
Richard E . Balzhiser, Director

GASIFICATION-COMBINED-CYCLE
POWER PLANTS
Integrated coal gasification-combined­
cycle (GCC) power plants provide the elec­
tric utility industry with a technology option
tor generating electric power at high thermal
efficiency and, at the same time, complying
with stringent environmental control regula­
tions. A recent engineering and economic
evaluation of gasification-combined-cycle
power systems conducted by Fluor Engi­
neers and Constructors, Inc., has shown
these systems to be economically competi­
tive with coal-fired power plants that have
stack gas scrubbers.
Gasification of coal provides a convenient
mechanism for the removal of sulfur prior to
combustion of the resultant fuel gas. The
gasification process converts most of the
coal 's sulfur to hydrogen sulfide, which can
be readily scrubbed out of the fuel gas by a
number of commercially available l iquid
absorption processes. I n similar fashion, the
nitrogen component of coal is converted i nto
ammonia and elemental nitrogen during
gasification . Ammonia can be removed f rom
the gas, reducing the concentration of fuel­
bound nitrogen compounds in the gas and
thereby reducing the postcombustion NOx
emission problem. Finally, l imited data from
small-scale pilot plants i ndicate that as crude
fuel gas is subjected to many stages of liquid
scrubbing - generally at elevated pressure­
nearly all entrained particulates are removed
from the gas prior to combustion . Therefore,
coal gasification provides the electric utility
industry with a technology option for the
production of an extremely clean fuel gas
that can be tailored to meet stringent envi­
ronmental emission requirements.
A n u mber of options exist fo r utilizing the
clean fuel gas for electric power generation.
S uch options range from burning the gas in
an existing boiler to constructing highly
integrated GCC power plants. The purpose
of this report is to emphasize the results of

economic evaluations of GCC power plants.
Work is under way to evaluate the potential
incentives for burning the clean fuel gas
in existing boiler and/ or combined-cycle
equipment.
A series of economic screening studies
(AF-244, AF-41 6, and AF-531 ) indicate that
the most economically attractive option for
utilizing coal gasification in electric power
generation is the integrated GCC power
plant.
An integrated GCC plant is represented
by three major subsections -a coal gasifica­
tion section; a gas-cleaning module for the
removal of particulates, sulfur compounds,
and nitrogen; and a combined gas turbine­
steam turbine power plant.
The general flow schematic of an inte­
grated oxygen-blown GCC power plant
shows the extent of integration between the
gasification plant and the combined-cycle
power system (Figu re 1 ). Although essen­
tially all the subsystem components shown
in Figure 1 have been operated at commer­
cial scale, they have never been operated i n
the integrated GCC mode. An extensive
program is under way to demonstrate the
operability and control characteristics of
integrated GCC systems for electric power
production. EPRl's progress in this area was
summarized in the EPRI Journal, November
1 977, p. 33.
Two key questions need to be add ressed
before the potential benefits associated with
the development of integrated GCC systems
for electric power production can be de­
termined.
o How does the cost of electricity generated
from GCC plants compare with that from
alternative baseload fossil options (e. g . ,
coal-fired boilers with stack gas scrubbers)?
o From an economic point of view, are cer­
tain specific gasifiers better suited to i nte­
grated GCC power production than others?
In an attempt to address these questions,
EPRI sponsored an economic evaluation

by Fluor (AF-642). The project has devel­
oped estimates of the capital and operating
costs for a number of GCC plants based on
a variety of gasification technologies. Air­
blown Lu rgi gasifiers were chosen to repre­
sent current commercial technology,
whereas air- and oxygen-blown, two-stage
entrained high-pressure devices; repre­
sented by the Foster Wheeler concept, were
chosen to represent highly advanced third­
generation options. Second-generation
options, defined as those gasifiers that are
well into the pilot plant stage, were repre­
sented by an oxygen-blown single-stage
entrained Texaco system; the British Gas
Corp. (BGC)-Lurgi moving-bed, slagging­
bottom technology; and Combustion. Engi­
neering Inc. 's atmospheric pressure two­
stage entrained gasifier.
Flowsheets for complete grass roots
plants were designed for all six gasification
options mentioned above, and major equip­
ment items were sized. All plant capacities
were in the range of 1 000 MW, and site con­
ditions were chosen to be representative of
a Chicago location.
Plants of this capacity would be highly
modular, containing approximately four to
six gasification trains, three or fou r gas­
cleaning trains, six to nine gas turbine-heat
recovery steam generator sets, and a single
steam turbine.
All cases studied were based on Illinois
No. 6 coal, with the exception of the Lurgi
case, in which a western subbituminous coal
was used. The power blocks for all six sys­
tems were based on advanced combustion
turbines having combustor outlet tempera­
tures of 1 31 6 ° C (2400 ° F) and pressure
ratios of 1 7: 1 . Steam conditions of 1 0 , 100
kPa/482 ° C /538 ° C (1 450 psig/900 ° F/
1 000 ° F) were employed for all cases. Per­
formance and cost estimates for all six power
blocks were provided by Westinghouse
Electric Corp.
Performance and cost estimates for the
GCC systems studied are summarized in
EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

43

 FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT
Figure 1 Flow schematic of an oxygen-blown gasification-combined-cycle power plant.

Air Coal

Coal
preparation

--

Air
separation
plant

Gasification
plant

l

Gas
cooling

-

1
Particulate
removal

I ntermediate-pressure steam

-- - - - - - - - - - - - -,

I
I

f-----+

Gaseous streams
---

Solids containing streams

I
I
I

Ash

Steam turbine

I
I

� igh-pressure steam _.L _ _ _ _ _ _

___J

--

--

L_ _ _

- - _ _ I ntermediate-pressure steam

------

_ _ - >Boiler feedwater_ _ _ _ _ _
Low-pressure steam

,--- - - - - - - -,-[
I
+
Ammonia
removal

Sulfur
removal

Steam and boiler feedwater

-

-

Generator

--+t

Heat
recovery
steam
generator

Combustion
gas
turbines

Stack

--

Generator

Air --�
Waste
water
treatment

Table 1 . Included for comparison are the
costs for a new coal-fired power plant with
stack gas scrubbers. Plant investment costs
for the coal-fired power plant were taken
from a Bechtel Corp. study (AF-342) and
were adjusted to be consistent with the GCC
cases evaluated by Fluor. Sulfur emissions
for all systems investigated were limited to
a maximum of 0.54 kg (1 .2 lb) S0 2 per mil lion
Btu of coal fired. Costs of electricity reported
in Table 1 are based on delivered coal costs
of $1 / 1 0 6 Btu, a capital charge rate of 1 8% ,
and an operating load factor of 70% .
The results shown i n Table 1 indicate that
(in general) GCC-based power plants are
expected to be cost-competitive with con­
ventional coal-fired power systems. Key
factors contributing to this conclusion are
the i mproved heat rates and lower costs of
sulfur removal associated with GCC-based
plants. It is also to be expected that as envi­
ronmental restrictions become more strin­
gent and as the cost of coal increases, the
economic advantages of GCC systems will
be even g reater than is shown in Table 1 . 11

•

44 EPRI JOURNAL July/August 1 978

Ammonia
Sulfur

Sulfur
recovery

is also of interest to note that GCC power
plants require substantially less water than
their coal-fired counterparts. This feature of
GCC-based systems could become an im­
portant factor in establishing future siting
requirements for baseload power plants.
In comparing the different gasification
technology options for GCC power plants, it
is of interest to note that the avai lable Lurgi
option provides the most expensive elec­
tricity, whereas the highly specu lative air­
blown Foster Wheeler concept results in the
lowest-cost system. The second-generation
options, such as the Texaco system and the
BGC slagger, are intermediate in cost. Lurgi
costs tend to be high primarily because of
low gasifier capacity and the production of
such by-products as tars, oils, and phenols,
which are costly to collect and handle in an
environmentally acceptable manner.
The Combustion Engineering option ap­
pears to be expensive when operating in the
combined-cycle mode primarily because of
the high cost of fuel gas compression (the
Combustion Engineering gasifier operates at

Tail
gas
treatment

Stack

atmospheric pressure). If lower-cost fuel
gas compressors could be developed, the
Combustion Engineering GCC option would
improve considerably.
The BGC slagging-bottom gasification
technology appears to be attractive for
combined-cycle power generation, judging
from the results of the Fluor study. However,
it must be kept in mind that the performance
data supplied by EPRI to Fluor for this study
were based on an extrapolation of pi lot
plant data accumulated in Westfield, Scot­
land, on a 350-1/d device fired primarily with
a Scottish coal . The results of the Fluor study
presuppose that the slagger can be success­
fully scaled u p , that it will operate as esti­
mated on I l l i n ois coal , and that coal fines and
tar products can be recycled to the gasifier.
The results of this study concerning the
BGC slagger must be confirmed on a full­
scale gasifier using eastern coking coal.
From the results of this study, the Texaco
oxygen-blown coal gasification technology
appears to be well suited to combined-cycle
power generation. The gasifier is based on

 FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT

Table 1
PERFORMANCE AND COST COMPARISONS

Coal Type

Oxidant

Net Heat Rate
(Btu/kWh)

Water Requirement
(gal/ min)/GW (m 3 /s)/GW

Total Capital
Requirement
($ / kW)''

Cost of Electricity
(mills/kWh)t

Lurgi

Western

Air

9,762

7,905

0 .48

906

41 .2

Texaco

Illinois

Oxygen

8,81 3

7,950

0.49

81 6

37.2

BGC
Slagger

Illinois

Oxygen

8,41 0

6,71 6

0.41

71 1

32.8

Foster
Wheeler

Illinois

Air

8,428

6,622

0.40

705

32.5

Foster
Wheeler

Illinois

Oxygen

8,876

7,034

0.43

739

34.1

Combustion
Engineering

Illinois

Air

8,959

7,596

0.46

931

41 .4

Coal-fired
plant with
stack gas
scrubber

Illinois

Air

9,928

- 1 2,000

- 0.74

838

40.9

*Mid-1976 dollars, Including allowance for funds during construction, startup costs, working capital, contingencies, royalties, and initial catalyst and chemicals.
tFirst-year costs based on coal at $1 / 1 0 ° Btu and a 70% operating load factor.

Table 2
COST OF GCC PLANT SECTIONS
(% of total plant cost)

Coal
Handling

Oxidant
Feed

Gasification
and Ash
Handling

Gas
Cooling

Acid Gas
Removal and
Sulfur Recovery

Waste Water
Treating
1 0.03

Fuel Gas
Compression

Steam,
Condensate,
and Boiler
Feedwater

S upport
Facilities

Combined
Cycle

7. 1 3

1 0.44

39.45

0.1 4

8.91

49.10

Lurgi

4.36

3.25

1 7.00

3.25

5.09

Texaco

3.56

1 8.95

3.92

1 0 .81

4.61

BGC
Slagger

2.63

1 0.23

8.76

1 .58

4.1 5

5.50

0.36

1 0.25

56.54

Foster
Wheeler
(air-blown)

5.41

3.96

7.88

5.93

6.72

1 .81

0.30

1 1 .42

56.57

Foster
Wheeler
(oxygenblown)

5.39

1 2.30

6.55

3 . 57

5.01

1 .4 1

0.51

1 0.58

54.68

Combustion
Engineering

6.88

0.31

1 3.06

2.05

3.55

0.12

8. 1 6

40.29

Texaco's 30 years of oil partial-oxidation
experience fo r synthesis gas generation. A
1 5 t/d coal gasification pilot plant has been
operated in Montebello, California, for the
past four years. This pilot operation has
demonstrated that the Texaco partial­
oxidation technology can be successfully
applied to coal. The gasifier appears to be
extremely flexible and has been operated
successfully on a large variety of coal feed­
stocks. A 1 50 t/d coal-fired Texaco gasifier

has been constructed and started up in
Germany for the commercial production of
chemicals. This development is being fol­
lowed closely by EPRI.
Because of the advanced stage of devel­
opment of the Texaco gasification process
and the economic incentives indicated by
the Fluor study for Texaco-based GCC
power plants, demonstration of an integ rated
Texaco GCC plant for utility power genera­
tion is now the primary goal of the Clean

25.58

Gaseous Fuels Program. To further the
achievement of this goal , the Advanced
Fossil Power Systems Department is funding
a $2 million experimental pilot plant program
at Texaco's Montebello test facility, a num­
ber of system control and modeling studies
(summarized in the November 1 977 EPRI
Journal p. 33) , and ongoing system con­
figuration and economic studies of the
Texaco technology (RP239, RP986, and
TPS78-773).

EPRI JOURNAL

J uly/August 1 978 45

 FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT

Another i mportant result of the Fluor eco­
nomic evaluation is shown in Table 2, which
i ndicates the percentage contribution to
total plant investment of each major section
of the GCC plants evaluated. This table
demonstrates that the gasification section of
each plant rarely represents a major portion
of total plant cost. indicating that it would be
more cost-effective to develop advanced
equipment for other sections of GCC plants
(i.e. , heat exchangers for hot, d i rty gases;
air separation plants; advanced power cy­
cles; and so on) than to develop a variety of
i mproved gasifiers for combined-cycle appli­
cation . Concentration of Clean Gaseous
Fuels Program funds on the Texaco gasifier
development is consistent with this phi­
losophy. Program Manager: Michael J.
Gluckman

CONDENSER
BIOFOULING CONTROL
Biofouling, or slime accumulation, in con­
denser tubes is a natural phenomenon that
occurs in every power plant. Operators must
take frequent action to control it, relying
mainly on their ingenuity. Pending EPA
limitations threaten to nearly eliminate the
traditional means of control (chlorination)
and hence cause significant reduction in
plant performance. Several projects are
under way and more are planned to provide
solutions to biofouling-an elusive and com­
plex biological-physical-chemical phenome­
non. Efforts are proceeding along three
avenues: understanding what causes bio­
fouling and how different control measures
work, developing instruments for quantifying
the extent of slime-induced problems, and
evaluating chemical/ physical alternatives
to chlorination.
Any trout fisherman who wades i n flowing
streams knows what a problem slime films
covering rocks can be. Slimes form naturally
on any solid surface, whether in a pristine
mountain stream or a polluted estuary. Ele­
vated temperatures and constant flow over
the surface seem to exacerbate the problem
of microbial growth , which produces sticky
molecules that hold particulate matter and
microbial "groceries. "
I t ' s quite understandable that most power
plant operators are fam i liar with the prob­
lems that slime causes. The i nsides of con­
denser tubes are an ideal environment for
slime growth, except that algae don't g row
here, as they would in a stream bed. The
problem is that slime films reduce heat trans­
fer between the condensing steam and

46

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1978

cooling water and thus indi rectly diminish
the power extracted per u n it of fuel con­
sumed. The rate of biofouling, or slime accu­
mulation , varies with season (accumulation
is generally more rapid in summer) , location
(which determines water quality - mainly the
supply of microbial n utrients and energy, as
wel l as particulate matter), and control mea­
sures (either active or passive).
The preferred active control measure,
which has evolved since the 1 930s, is chlori­
nation, in spite of the fact that it is unknown
how this measure controls biofouling. Other
oxidants, biocides, and - l ately- disper­
sants have been actively promoted by chemi­
cal vendors. Sponge rubber balls (Amertap),
brushes (M.A. N .N. ) , and thermal-hydraulic
shocks are other active, on-line control
measures available. A variety of mechanical­
chemical off-line measu res complete the list
of active cleaning approaches.
Passive measures incl ude control of con­
denser-related factors, such as water veloc­
ity, tube skin temperature, and alloy toxic­
ity, which may influence biofouling rate.
Biofouling can also be passively controlled
by regulating the source water characteris­
tics, such as the presence of toxins or solids
that are of sufficient mass and density to
scour the tubes.
The salient problem in biofouling is the
difficulty of quantifying its characteristics
and effects. The slime films are thin but cover
a large area; they are inaccessible; they
accumulate g radually; and they represent
one of many factors that may affect con­
denser performance and steam back­
pressure. In order to apply active control
measures on an as-needed basis, operators
urgently need an on-line sensing device
with adequate sensitivity and rapid response
time.

Project No.

Title

RP902

Biofouling Film Developmen
and Destruction

RP1 1 32

Biofouling Control:
Practice and Assessment,
Phase I
Biofouling Control:
P ractice and Assessment,
Phase I I

RP733

Ozone Dosage and Conta
for Biofouling Control

RP1 372

Alternatives to Chlorination

RP1 261

Treatment of Circulating
Cooling Water

RP2808

Biofouling Control
Symposium

EPA limitations
It appears that chlorine is the major con­
stituent in power plant cooling-water dis­
charges that the EPA has targeted for con­
trol, if not outright elimination. Informally,
EPA has indicated that the limit will be set at
0.02 mg/I of total residual chlorine at the
point of discharge for all facilities, beg inning
in 1 984 (the preliminary draft of the l i m ita­
tions is expected to be proposed in the Fed­
eral Register next January). EPA's tentative
plan is to mitigate limitations on an individual­
plant basis. If the utility believes that the
limitation on chlorine discharge seriously
threatens its control of biofouling, it must
demonstrate to EPA that it has minimized the
use of chlorine. Exactly what factor is to be
minimized has not been defined -total mass
of chlorine used per time period and u n it

(where mass/time = concentration X flow
rate); mass of total residual chlorine dis­
charged; or mass of free residual chlorine
discharged. This situation poses a real di­
lemma: utilities are expected to fine-tune a
control procedure, but no one actually un­
derstands how chlorine or its alternatives
function as control measures. Additionally,
there are no methods available for ade­
quately quantifying the degree of condenser
biofouling.
Several projects are under way, and more
are contemplated, to attempt to meet indus­
try needs in dealing with the problem of
understanding and controlling biofouling i n
condensers (Table 3).

 FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT

Table 3
CONDENSER BIOFOULING CONTROL PROJECTS

Objectives

Focus

Sponsors

Contractors

Time

Evaluate alternative filmsensing devices
Define variables that affect
film development
Evaluate alternative
methods at film destruction

Laboratory study
Fresh water

EPRI

Rice University

September 1 976March 1 978

Document utility problem
and control practice (basis
and instrumentation)
Develop model to relate cause
and effect

Full-size condensers
Once-th rough cooling
All-quality waters

EPRI

NUS Corp. and
Marine Research, Inc.

March 1 978April 1 979

Conduct biotouling control
optimization program with
seven utilities
Test model
Produce guidelines

Full-size condensers
Once-through cooling
All-quality waters

Not yet
determined

Not yet determined

Not yet
determined

)etermine minimum 0 3 for
�antral
::valuate contactor design
::valuate cost

Pilot-scale condensers
Once-through cooling
Fresh and b rackish
water

EPRI , Public
Service Electric
and Gas Co., and Foster
Wheeler Energy Corp.

Public Service Electric
and Gas Co. and Rutgers
University

May 1976
(continuing)

::valuate continuous
ow-level Cl2
:valuate dechlorination
oxicity
)ptimize biofouling control
:valuate toxic coatings
:valuate ozonation

Pilot- and full-scale
condensers
Once-through cooling
Brackish water

New England
Power Co., Northeast
Utilities, Boston Edison Co.,
The United I lluminating Co.,
Vermont Yankee
N uclear Power Corp., and
EPRI

Marine Research, I nc.

June 1 976May 1977

�antral biofouling,
caling, and corrosion
levelop system design
•rocedures
'roduce system operation
ottware
ievelop operation
uidelines

Pilot-scale condenser
(portable test facility)
Closed-cycle cooling
All-quality waters

EPRI

Not yet determined

J uly 1978September 1979

1form utilities of
isearch , new control
ptions, and instrumentation
1form researchers of
tility experience ,
roblems, and
Jnstraints

Condenser biofouling
control

EPRI

Marine
Research, Inc.

March 1 979

Biofou ling cause and control

There are several reasons why we know so
little about biofouling and its control .
o Biofou l ing is a very complex biological­
physical-chemical phenomenon that has not
yet been systematical ly studied under con­
trolled conditions.
o No one has yet attempted to collect, cor­
relate, and analyze the i nformation that
utilities have from their vast experience in
dealing with biofou ling.
o The myths that have filled this gap in
knowledge have greatly confused the issues.
The first two projects listed in Table 3 are
d i rected toward replacing myth with fact.

Laboratory studies were in itiated at Rice
University in 1 976 (RP902) using three dif­
ferent highly instrumented loops that circu­
lated water containing soluble organic
matter and mixed bacterial seed. Bulk water
temperatures (27-40 ° C ; 82-1 04 ° F) and
velocities (0.9-2.0 m /s; 3-7 ft/s) were
controlled to simulate a condenser. Several
conditions of this research should be noted
because they may affect the applicability of
these laboratory results to actual condens­
ers; subsequent experiments may deter­
mine the importance of the conditions.
o Only glass and acrylic su rfaces were used.
o The bacteria were not exposed to heat flux

across the slime film and the associated
temperature g radient.
o No particulate matter was added.
o Most of the experiments were done essen­
tially as batch reactions.
o The organic carbon source was g lucose,
which is soluble and h ighly biodegradable,
unlike the predominantly particulate, non­
biodegradable organics found in su rface
water.
Some attempts were made to compare the
laboratory-developed slime films to real
films, but since results were inconclusive,
caution is suggested in using the results.
EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

47

 FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT
A generalized curve shows slime accumu­
lation inside an initially clean tube in the
absence of chlorination (Fig ure 2 ) . Also
shown are the effects of major condenser­
related variables (temperature and water­
side velocity) and water quality parameters
that were investigated. In practical terms,
growth rate is of greatest i nterest. Labora­
tory experience shows that control mea­
s u res (short of brushing and chemically
cleaning) probably remove only a portion of
the slime film. The decision on how often
treatment is needed -which is the operator's
proble m - depends on growth rate, treat­
ment effectiveness, and film reduction. The
data summarized in Figure 2 qualitatively
support the seasonal variations in fouling
that many operators experience (increased
fouling in summer) but also suggest that the
only way to control biofouling by passive
measu res is to design for it.
A series of experiments was conducted
on the destruction of biofilm by chemical and
physical means. Some interesting conclu­
sions were reached, but their relevance to
actual biofilm control depends on establish­
ing comparability of the laboratory biofilms
and actual biofilms by further study. It was
found that c h lorin e controls the films mainly
by oxidizing the slimelike structural fibers
(presumably bacterial extracel l u lar poly-

saccharides) and that shear stress from
water flow induces erosion and sloughing of
the weakened material. (This effect could
open numerous avenues for control on both
existing and new facilities.)
It is disconcerting to find that biofilms may
regrow at an accelerated rate after chlorine
treatment (Figure 3). This is consistent with
the general finding that ch lori ne treatment
removes only a portion of organic material
and bacteria. Rapid reg rowth could be ex­
pected on an inocu lated surface that has a
ready su pply of "groceries" surrounding
the surviving bacteria. The practical implica­
tion is that once a film has accumulated and
chlorine has been applied, the frequency of
treatment must be increased. The films
were fou nd to consume between 0.06 and
0.30 milligram of chlorine per milligram of
film removed.
Limited laboratory experiments were
done with other oxidants, but ozone was
found to be far su perior. It was the only oxi­
dant that appeared to strip the surface clean.
A test involving regrowth will need to be con­
ducted to formulate a valid comparison,
however.
For new facilities and some existing ones,
physical treatments such as temperature
excu rsions and flow reversal might be ap­
plied . Both treatments were tested and found

to eliminate 30-90% of the film. Tempera­
ture excursions (to 50-60 ° C for more than
30 min) were the more effective means , and
they appear to g reatly retard regrowth . Some
pr.o mising combined physical-chemical
approaches are suggested.
Plans are to continue laboratory investiga­
tions, with emphasis on simulating real con­
denser conditions, incorporating particulate
effects, and studying slime film destruction
and control . This will be tied in with projects
being conducted at power plants (RP1 1 32)
to ensure focus on realistic problems.
A project was initiated i n March to deal
directly with biofouling on a power plant
scale (RP1 1 32). Through the cooperation
of many utilities and the EEi Power Station
Chemistry Subcommittee, a valuable infor­
mation base has been compiled that summa­
rizes available information on facilities,
biofou ling problems, and control practices.
EPR I and cooperating uti lities will select
seve n cities where detailed work will be
conducted on cause and control of biofoul­
ing. The goal is to produce industry guide­
lines by 1 981 that will allow selection of a
workable biofouling control prog ram on a
site-by-site basis while also min imizing ad­
verse aquatic effects. It is antici pated that
interim results will identify solutions to partic­
ular classes of foul i n g .

Induction

Growth

Equilibrium

Time of induction

Growth rate

Maximum thickness

• Decreases with supply
of organic matter
• Is typically 5-1 0 d
• Ranges from 0 . 5 to 1 0 d

• Increases with bacteria
nutrient supply
• Reac hes maximum at
temperature of 35 ° C and
water velocity of - 1 .5 m/s
• Ranges from 2 to 60 d

• Increases with bacteria
nutrient supply
• Decreases above 35 ° C and at
water velocity greater than
0.9-2.0 m/s
• Is typically 0. 1 -0.2 mm
• Ranges from 0.06 to 0.90 mm

---

Time (since beginning flow in clean tube)

Figure 2 Biofilm development under laboratory conditions is divided into three distinct periods: induction, growth, and equilibrium. Within these periods
are listed the major variables that determine the exact shape of the curve.

48

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

 FOSSIL FUEL AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT

Several New England util ities initiated a
project on control in the early 1 970s, and
EPRI became a participant in 1 976. An in­
terim finding is that ozone is a very effective
biofouling control in fresh water but is not a
good choice in brackish water because of
residual toxicity.
Instrumentation for
biofouling measurement
Biofouling control would probably be rou­
tine if its effect on condenser and plant
performance could be quantified rapidly
and accurately. A second but less desirable
approach is to develop instrumentation that
will d i rectly measure the extent of biofilm
accumulation in a condenser tube. A third
approach is to d ivert a slipstream through
an instrumented device that facilitates
measurement of biofouling, but with this
approach there is a risk that the measure­
ment will not acc u rately reflect fou ling that
would actually occur in the condenser.
All three of these avenues are being pur­
sued in various combinations of the projects
listed in Table 3, and additional work is be­
ing contemplated. The laboratory project
(RP902) was di rected at identifying ap­
proaches useful for research as well as for
actual condenser applications. N ine mea­
sure ment methods were investigated - four

thickness-measurement approaches, two
optical methods, two fluid frictional resis­
tance methods, and one heat transfe r
method. The optical and frictional resis­
tance methods seemed to offer the g reatest
promise.
Three identical model condensers are
being used at Public Service Electric and
Gas Co. (PSE&G), and the rate of fouling in
the models will be compared with that in the
condensers at the PSE&G Bergen Station,
New Jersey, starting this summer ( R P373) .
Several alternative sl i pstream approaches
are to be tested at B rayton Point, Massa­
chusetts (RP1 372) . Also, Wisconsin Electric
Power Co. has developed an innovative
method by making measurements on a few
tubes extended through the outlet water
box, but results of this research have not yet
been published.
Alternatives to chlorination
Results of ozonation and laboratory studies
of physical means have been discussed. The
testing of ozone on model condensers will
begin shortly at two PSE&G stations to com­
pare ozone effectiveness with that of chlo­
rine. A cost analysis will also be performed.
Other efforts are planned to evaluate physi­
cal and physical-chemical means of control .

Project Manager: Roger Jorden

c-

0.10

E

0.08

ro 0.06
Q)
Q)

0.04

m

0.02

•

o y:•
0

o Chlorinated tube
• Clean tube

10

20

30

40

50

60

Time (d)

Figure 3 For biofilm samples collected at Houston Lighting & Power Co.'s Deepwater plant, tests indicated
a much higher rate of biofilm buildup in a condenser tube that had been chlorinated (after a growth experi­
ment) than in an originally clean tube.

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

49

 R &D Status Report
NUCLEAR POWER DIVISION
Milton Levenson, Director

WORKSHOP ON BWR
PIPING INSPECTION M ETHODS
Thirty specialists in the fast-moving field of
nondestructive inspection met recently to
exchange ideas. The occasion was a four­
day workshop (January 1 6 - 1 9), which was
sponsored by EPRI, hosted by Batte/le,
Columbus Laboratories, and attended by
quality assurance engineers from utilities,
in-service inspection companies, and NRC.
Southwest Research Institute (SWRI) and
General Electric Co. collaborated with
Batte/le-Columbus in organizing the work­
shop. The lecture demonstrations were sup­
plemented by opportunities for every person
attending to inspect real B WR pipe samples,
using each procedure and item of equip­
ment.
The workshop centered on the use of re­
cently developed equi pment and procedu res
for early discovery of intergranular stress
corrosion cracking (IGSCC) in stainless
steel piping. Nine samples of pipe were
provided, ranging from 10 to 65 cm (4-26
in) in diameter.
The main detection methods stressed in
this workshop were new aspects of u ltra­
sonic technique, including several new
transducer types. Radiographic inspection
and dye-penetrant procedures were also
discussed and demonstrated.
Recent experience with the cracking of
1 0-cm (4-in) bypass with 25-cm (1 0-in) core
spray l ines in BWRs has heightened interest
in i mproved methods of detecting and ana­
lyzing these flaws during maintenance in­
spections and in discovery of the cause and
cure.
The problems associated with in-service
inspection for such cracks were evaluated
in a recent technical planning study (TPS75609) and reported in the April 1 976 and Au­
g ust 1 977 issues of the EPRI Journal. As a
result of this study, a three-year project
(RP892) was initiated in 1 97 7 to i mprove the

50

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

overall process of u ltrasonic inspection for
detecting and analyzing IGSCC in stainless
steel piping, using practical methods that are
code-acceptable. The technical planning
study indicated that some of the most effec­
tive equipment and procedures for detecting
IGSCC were not generally available . Hence,
one goal of the EPRI project is the rapid
and efficient transfer of such technical i nfor­
mation to practitioners in the field. This is the
first of a series of workshops planned for
that purpose.
The major objectives of the series of work­
shops are to:
o Replace the "art" and mystique of detect­
ing IGSCC in stai nless steel piping with a
systematic approach to i nspection
o Provide the industry with supplementary
nondestructive inspection procedu res , such
as field radiography, to improve the overall
capability of the inspector
o Transmit the combined knowledge of
leading specialists to the util ity industry i n
a rapid, efficient manner
New equipment and procedu res were de­
scribed and demonstrated each day. Then
the partici pants, in groups of three, used
the equipment on the samples provided, re­
corded the data, and analyzed and inter­
preted the results. Comparison of the results
from the 1 O groups was instructive. Partici­
pants were encou raged to use their own
test equipment and procedures on the speci­
mens provided and to compare the results
with results from the equipment (primarily
transducers) developed in R P892.
The workshop was intended for personnel
working in n uclear in-service i nspection
who already had considerable experience
with ultrasonic, dye-penetrant, and radio­
graphic testing. The participants were:
o Qual ity assurance or inspection engineers
from EPRI member utilit ies

o Inspectors from nuclear steam system
suppliers or from in-service inspection
groups that supply services to EPRI member
utilities
o Code committee and government regula­
tory research representatives
Attendance at the workshop was restricted
to 30 participants because of limitations on
the number of specimens, i nstruments, and
staff. Of the 30 participants, 21 were util ity
representatives, 8 were representatives from
in-service inspection agencies, and 1 was an
NRC representative.
The highlight of the workshop was the
hands-on i nspection of several 1 0-, 25-,
and 65-cm ( 4-, 1 0-, and 26-in) diameter
pipe specimens that contained many n atural
reflectors and internal flaws. The ultrasonic
responses from these specimens were
chosen as being typical of the detection
problems faced in field i nspections of n u­
clear piping systems. The reflectors con­
tained in the pipe segments included IGSCC,
weld defects, and geometric reflectors.
Some nonflawed specimens were also used.
This kept the partici pants from expecting
cracks at each pipe station and emphasized
the difficulty in reflector discrimination when
a crack-no-crack decision had to be made.
The specimens at each station (laboratory
bench) were mounted on wooden blocks,
and the pipe ends were covered to discour­
age participants from looking at the inside
of the pipe. The pipes were actual plant
specimens and were mildly radioactive (less
than 30 mrem at the surface). The 25-cm
(1 0-in) pipe segments had been used previ­
ously in EPRl-sponsored round-robin in­
spections, and the extensive characteriza­
tion of the defects in the segments is
described in an EPRI special report ( N P436-SR). The 1 0-cm ( 4-in) pipe segments
came from General Electric's environmental
simulator. These had stress corrosion cracks
that had been induced in the laboratory

 without radioactivity. A section of a 65-cm
(26-in) diameter specimen also came from
General Electric. The cracks in this speci­
men were produced by using a chemical
method (Strauss solution) that roughly simu­
lates environmental cracks.
Prior to the workshop, all pipe specimens
were tested with fluorescent penetrant and
radiographed using X-ray and gamma-ray
techniques. Most of the specimens were
radiographed by means of a double-wall
field technique with and without water i n
the pipe. The double-wall radiographs were
made as described in the ASM E Boiler and
Pressure Vessel Code, Section V.
The workshop activities consisted of a
series of lectures, demonstrations, and
hands-on activities. The lectu res were de­
signed to give background information on
pipe welding, systems design, stress anal­
ysis of welds, n uclear code regulations and
requi rements, and state-of-the-art inspec­
tion techniques, as well as to present spe­
cially prepared procedures to be used in the
workshop.
The lectures were given by representa­
tives of in-service inspection agencies, lab­
oratories conducting nuclear-related re­
search, code and regulatory agencies, and
vendors of n uclear systems and subsystems.
The speakers were considered to be leaders
in their fields. The workshop was coordi­
nated and directed by Battelle-Colu mbus
with assistance from General Electric, EPR I ,
and SWRI. A l l these laboratories are pres­
ently working as part of RP892.
The ultrasonic test procedure was demon­
strated i n the laboratory prior to the round­
robin inspection by the participants (Figure
1 ) . Other demonstrations were given of
state-of-the-art fluorescent-penetrant tests
and X-radiography. The improved sensitivity
to IGSCC of the SWRI dual transducer (as
compared with standard transducers) was
demonstrated. The laboratory hands-on ex­
ercises were;
o Round-robin ultrasonic inspection of pipe
segments and reading of available radio­
g raphs
o Detailed reexamination of pipe segments
to complete data
o Reexamination of pipe segments after
viewing penetrant indications and welds on
the i nside of the pipe
o Individual studies of hardware and pro­
cedures, including feedback from results
obtained by others
The outsides of the pipes were covered
except in areas of transducer placement.

Figure 1 Hands-on ultrasonic examination of a stainless steel pipe sample that is similar to a BWR bypass line.

Cotton and rubber gloves were worn during
the examination of the pipe to protect the
participants and to simulate field conditions.
After the ultrasonic round-robin exercise,
radiographs of the pipes were read in a sep­
arate room with five viewing stations. The
participants were asked to make evaluations
based only on the radiographic examina­
tion . These eval uations could then be combined with the ultrasonic results for a final
decision on the presence of a crack and its
location in a pipe segment. The pipes were
available for additional evaluations as
requested .
The covered areas of the pipe were even­
tually revealed, and penetrant indications
were give n , along with detailed explanations
of the history of each pipe segment. The
pipe segments were made available for re­
examination by ultrasonics so that each
participant could examine regions of partic­
ular interest.
A critical evaluation of the workshop has
been requested from each participant. In
addition, the test data and results from each
inspection team are being reviewed to deter­
mine the effectiveness of the workshop de­
sign and to define where additional work
may be needed in technique development,
data analysis methods, and inspection
procedures.
As a direct result of the workshop, the
dual transducers developed by SWRI were
requested by a number of the utilities and

inspection groups for trial use in the field.
EPRI has agreed to supply these transducers
and has requested that data obtained be
made available to EPRI to aid in evaluating
the transducers' effectiveness and !imitations. An optimized transducer design with
well-defined capability is expected to be
available for the next series of plant inspec­
tions in fall 1 978. Project Manager: Eugene
Reinhart
INTERPRETING THE
CHARPY TEST FOR USE
I N REACTOR SURVEILLANCE
Of paramount importance in nuclear steam
supply systems is the maintenance of the
integrity of the primary pressure-retaining
boundary, which contains the coolant tor
the nuclear reactor core. Although there are
secondary containment systems designed to
accommodate a rupture, integrity of the
primary system is necessary tor proper func­
tioning of the plant and tor public safety.
One key element in the structural integrity
analysis of reactor pressure vessels is the
fracture toughness of the construction mate­
rials throughout plant lifetime. The Charpy
impact test is presently used in the surveil­
lance programs of L WRs to assess the ef­
fects of fast-neutron bombardment on frac­
ture toughness. The Charpy test is an
extremely simple one to perform, and yet
the results are very difficult to interpret in

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

51

 NUCLEAR POWER DIVISION R & D STATUS REPORT

terms of quantitative fracture toughness.
This research project develops a procedure
for estimating fracture toughness from
Charpy results for irradiated materials.
To demonstrate integrity of the primary
pressure boundary, requisite material prop­
erties must be known , and changes i n
properties d u e t o operational factors (e.g . ,
irradiation) must b e accounted for during
plant lifetime. The material su rrounding the
nuclear core is exposed to appreciable fast­
neutron bombardment. Neutron bombard­
ment embrittles the material to some degree.
This embrittlement is manifested by a loss
of ductility, a reduced resistance to fracture,
and an increase in the brittle-ductile transi­
tion temperature. These manifestations may
significantly affect the ability of some n uclear
plants to meet technical specification limits,
possibly encumbering future operation. It
should be emphasized that such encum­
brance can result from inadequate or inap­
propriate radiation data, even though the
reactor vessel may actually be well within
safety limits.
One of the principal design criteria need­
ing revision in the current treatment of radia­
tion damage is the use of an inappropriate
materials test-the Charpy impact test - i n
radiation surveillance programs.
The Charpy test, developed in 1 91 2, uti­
lizes a three-point-bend steel specimen , 1 0
mm square and 40 mm long with a 2-mm­
deep notch in the midsection that acts as a
stress concentrator. The specimen is broken
in a weighted-pendulum machine, and the
principal test result is the amount of total
kinetic energy absorbed during specimen
separation . Charpy tests on reactor vessel
materials are conducted at a n umber of dif­
ferent temperatures to capture the shape
and position of the brittle-to-ductile transi­
tion characteristic of low-alloy ferritic mate­
rials. The maximum amount of energy, gen­
erally referred to as the C harpy upper-shelf
energy, is absorbed in the temperature
region where the specimen is fully ductile.
The Charpy test, when i ncorporated into
the present reactor surveillance program,
does not di rectly measure the property de­
sired (fracture toughness) for fracture anal­
yses. This test is qualitative and requires
supplementary testing and service experi­
ence to differentiate between acceptable
and unacceptable energy levels for safe
operation. Fracture mechanics tests do
measure fracture toughness, and the results
are directly useful for design purposes and
safety assessments. Presently, only tenuous
correlations are available for predicting frac­
ture toughness from Charpy impact energy.

52

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1978

In summary, the Charpy test has these
assets: It requires only a very small speci­
men, is a simple test procedure, is amenable
to hot cell testing, indicates fracture transi­
tion , and defines relative fracture resistance.
It has the following l iabil ities: It has limited
design value; does not measure fracture
toughness and therefore only i ndi rectly sup­
ports inferences on allowable flaw sizes; can
be very sensitive to test procedures and
specimen preparation; can be oversensitive
to grain size, orientation, and so on, when
compared with the fracture mechanics test;
and is sensitive to yield strength when com­
pared with the fracture mechanics test.
Nevertheless, the conventional Charpy
test is the standard technique for measuring
radiation damage. Minimum levels of frac­
ture toughness are being established from
test results that do not directly measure
fracture toughness.
An analytic correlation between Charpy
energy and fracture toughness that takes
into account the hardening effect of radiation
would be useful in refining toughness esti­
mates fo r vessel materials in operating reac­
tors. The complexity of the test has been
the primary deterrent to such an analysis
in the past.
I n summer 1 976, it was decided that Law­
rence Livermore Laboratories' work on
RP603-1 should be redirected to address
the Charpy interpretation problem. The proj­
ect was initially structured to apply a ductile
fracture model (developed with Department
of Defense funding) to the analysis of the
upper-shelf, intermediate-vessel fracture

tests conducted under the auspices of the
NRG-funded Heavy-Section Steel Technol­
ogy Program at Oak Ridge National Labora­
tory. The fracture model was capable of
predicting crack i n itiation and growth u nder
fully ductile conditions - a difficult task. The
model was to be calibrated for reactor ves­
sel steel through the detailed simulation of
actual laboratory tests of the material (Figure
2). Once the model was calibrated, essen­
tially any structural test could be simulated
on the computer. This required a large com­
puting capacity, and Lawrence Livermore
has one of the largest in the world.
Because of the importance of radiation
embrittlement surveillance for operating nu­
clear plants, it was decided that the focus
should be on analysis of the C harpy test by
means of the calibrated damage model
and on development of an analytic correla­
tion between Charpy energy and fracture
toughness.
Therefore, the new primary objective is
to thoroughly analyze the standard Charpy
test. The analysis permits the separation of
total energy into i nitiation energy, energy
associated w ith extraneous plastic deforma­
tions, propagation energy, and energy trans­
mitted to the test machi n e . Only initiation
energy is important to the correlation with
fracture toughness. After the first analysis,
it was possible to determine why the existing
empirical correlations were unsuccessful.
Only 1 0% of the total test energy is con­
sumed at the point of crack initiation. The
analysis of the test contin ued until a sma l l
but finite propagation existed. Results from

Figure 2 Computer simulation of a tensile test superimposed on a photograph of an actual test specimen,
showing characteristic nonuniform deformation prior to failure.

 Figure 3 Computer simulation of the Charpy impact test superimposed on a reproduction of the midsection
of the actual test specimen. The predicted crack extension and contours indicating percent of damage are
shown.

20%

•

300

•

E
z
6
� 200

a.,
C
.c
Ol
::J

i2

�

;]

g 1 00
u:

5

10

15

20

Charpy Initiation Energy (J)

Figure 4 Analytically developed correlation (solid line) for relating fracture toughness to Charpy upper-shelf
energy. The data points are experimental determinations.

interrupted Charpy tests confirmed the ac­
curacy of the analysis (Figure 3).
A second phase of this correlation is to
take the developed computer model and
simulate a fracture toughness speci men.
Thus the model will provide a d i rect ana­
lytic correlation between the Charpy energy
(the available information) and the fracture
toughness (the desi red i nformation). The
fracture specimen simu lation will also be
confirmed by interrupted fracture toughness
experiments.
As mentioned before , fast-neutron i rradia­
tion alters the flow properties of the material
as well as altering the fracture toughness.
Both of these manifestations affect the
Charpy test results. One objective in the
research is to sort out the two effects and
correct for the altered flow-property effect.
Though desirable, it was impractical to
work with irradiated material to test the
correlation developed on the uni rradiated
material. Therefore, the flow properties and
fracture toughness were altered by different
heat treatments. This did not simu late radia­
tion damage but provided additional material
states with which to evaluate the correlation
and the model.
Analysis of the materials with increased
yield strength clearly demonstrated that the
fraction of the total Charpy energy associ­
ated with crack initiation increased with yield
strength. This observation has g reat signifi­
cance for the interpretation of Charpy prop­
erties of irradiated material in terms of frac­
ture toughness. If a minimum level of fracture
toughness is specific for unaffected opera­
tion of a nuclear plant, the corresponding
level of Charpy energy would be less in the
radiation-hardened condition than in the
uni rradiated condition .
In order to establish the cred ibility of this
analytically developed correlation , most of
the existing data on fracture toughness and
Charpy energy were evaluated . The range of
yield strengths extended below and above
the range of interest for reactor surveillance
pu rposes. The correlation is much more
effective in relating Charpy energy to frac­
ture toughness than were the previous em­
pirical correlations (Figure 4) .
The next phase in the research will be to
finish the Charpy test simu latio� by com­
pleting fai l u re of the specimen. This will
entail developing a capability for analyzing
shear-dominated failure. With this capability,
the entire test can be simulated and the
total test energy estimated.
In addition , samples of the test material
will be i rradiated in a test reactor to evalu­
ate the correlation for i rradiated mate rials.
Project Manager: Theodore Marston

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

53

 R &D Status Report
ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS DIVISION
John J. Dougherty, Director

UNDERGROUND TRANSMISSION
Comparing pipe-type
and self-contained cables
Nearly all u nderground transmission cables
in this country are of the high-pressure o i l­
filled pipe type. A few major installations of
self-contained cables exist, but pipe-type
cable is the overwhelming choice for
general-pu rpose transmission. The situation
is equally unbalanced elsewhere in the
world , except that it is the self-contained
type that is dominant. In both i nstances, the
total cost of installation and operation is
given as the prime reason for choosing one
cable type over the other. Thus the U.S.
electric util ity industry is faced with the ques­
tion, " Is self-contained cable an economic
alternative for u nderground transmission in
this country?"
To attempt to answer this question, Power
Technologies, Inc . , made a comparison of
installed costs for self-contained and pipe­
type cables (RP7849). The p roject results
produced generalizations as guidance for
the industry, while showing that individual
site specifics tended to negate many gener­
alized assumptions. This limitation should be
recognized when the study is used in deci­
sion making . The study points in a general
direction, and precise answers can be found
only when site-specific assumptions are
integrated .
The following tentative conclusions are
drawn from the draft final report on the study:
o Material costs for pipe-type cables and
self-contained cables of equal conductor
area are about equal.
o Installation costs for pipe-type cables and
self-contained cables are nearly equal
under certain ass umptions about installa­
tion practices.
o The self-contained cable has a higher
ampacity than a pipe-type cable of equal
conductor area, and the differential in­
creases as circuit voltage increases.

54

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

o Some factors not evaluated in the study
(such as open-market conditions and long­
term familiarity of a utility with a cable type)
may override all other known variables in a
choice between cable types.
This last conclusion is important: while the
facts seem to support self-contained cable
as an economic choice, only an individual
evaluation for each transmission circuit will
clearly answer the question of economics.
Project Manager: John Shimshock
Losses in pipe-type cables
Accu rate information on losses in pipe-type
cables is of considerable importance i n
cable design and operation. The most widely
used methods for calculating these losses
are based on the 1 957 AIEE Transactions
Paper The Calculation of the Temperature
Rise and Load Capabilities of Cable Systems
by J . H. Neher and M. H . McGrath.
The empirical factors introduced in the
Neher-McGrath equations were based on
copper-conductor cables rated as high
as 1 38 kV. Over the past 20 years, manu­
facturing techniques have been refined,
and voltage ratings have increased to
the 765-kV level. Because of the many
changes in cable design, it became neces­
sary to verify the applicability of the Neher­
McGrath equations to modern cables. An
EPRI project, jointly funded with DOE and
General Cable Corp., was initiated to verify
these equations (RP7832).
Measurements of ac/dc resistance ratio
were made on cable systems rated 1 1 5-765
kV. Most measurements were made on ca­
bles with 1 0 1 5-mm 2 conductors of aluminum
or copper. The copper cond uctors were
made up of wires with various metal and di­
electric coatings. Measurements were also
made on cables with 1 776-mm 2 tin-coated
copper conductors and with 2385-mm 2 and
2690-mm 2 aluminum conductors. All were
conventional three-phase systems i n
carbon-steel pipes, a n d measurements were

made over a temperature range of 201 1 5 0 C . One interesting result from these
tests is that thermal cycling increases the
ac/dc resistance ratio of cables that have
copper conductors made of bare or metal­
coated strands. The increase occurs almost
entirely duri ng the first thermal cycle. This
effect is attributed to a decrease in electrical
contact resistance between strands due to
displacement of oil from the interstrand
space.
Preliminary work has also been carried
out by the University of Windsor, Ontario,
Canada, u nder subcontract to General
Cable, on the development of a computer
program based on the fundamental elec­
tromagnetic equations. The results of this
project i ndicate that the Neher-McGrath
equations are applicable to today's pipe­
type cable systems; however, certain empiri­
cal factors have been corrected to permit
accu rate calculations. A follow-on project
will be initiated in the near future to establ ish
the ac / de resistance ratios of very-high­
capacity pipe-type cable systems that em­
ploy low-loss pipes i n single-phase and
three-phase configurations. Project Man­
ager: Felipe Garcia
SUBSTATIONS
EHV reactor/capacitor switch
Through a recently concluded development
project, a line of switches has been devel­
oped for EHV reactor and capacitor switch­
ing functions (RP655). These switches
employ puffer-type, SF6 i nterrupters and
incorporate resistors to reduce in-rush
cu rrents that result from back-to-back
switching of capacitor banks. Also, these
resistors curb high-frequency transients
that arise from deenergization of shunt
reactors.
Phase 1 of this project resulted in the de­
velopment and testing of a prototype inter­
rupter, establishing a satisfactory 600-A

 Figure 1 EHV reactor/capacitor switch to be field­
tested al 550 kV on Bonneville Power Admin istra­
tion's system.

resistance value can be chosen to suit any
specific requirement.
This switch is expected to be installed
on BPA's system in July for a fu l l field eval­
uation, and a report will be issued covering
the field test program. Project Manager:
Vasu Tahiliani
Arc interruption in gas flow

switching performance. During the project's
second phase, a three-phase switch was
built and laboratory-tested for 550-kV appli­
cations. This switch requ i res two i nter­
rupters in series to perform the switching
function satisfactorily (Figure 1 ) .
Transient network analyses were con­
ducted to study a specific application on
the Bonneville Power Admin istration (BPA)
system. They showed that a resistor of 75 Q
will effectively l imit the in-rush currents for
back-to-back switching of capacitor banks
rated 325-500 MVAR. However, the h igh­
frequency transients generated while de­
energizing shunt reactors require large
l i miting resistors (300-400 Q). A compro­
mise value of 1 50 Q was selected for the
design of a single switch that would perform
both switching functions. This switch is
capable of limiting the in-rush currents to
approximately 20% for capacitor switching
and can limit the overvoltages to approxi­
mately 1 .5 per u n it for reactor switching.
The projected performance relates to this
specific application with a chosen resistor
value. However, for general application, the

Phase 1 of General Electric Co. 's fu nda­
mental i nvestigation of arc i nterruption in
gas flow is now complete (RP246) . This work
attacks the greatest problem in gas i nter­
rupters-thermal reign ition of the arc im­
mediately following cu rrent zero that results
from short-line faults. This problem in­
creases in severity as fault duties become
larger.
The results of Phase 1 (EL-284) provided
a better understanding of the basic design
parameters for the nozzle and electrode
geometry and for the interrupter gas. The
results wi l l be applicable to the design of
more efficient gas interrupters.
The second phase of the project continues
the basic investigation of the thermal inter­
ruption region close to cu rrent zero. More
i nformation is needed on arc properties,
such as size, temperature, and form, in the
near-zero period . This information will lead
to better analysis of the arc-cooling process
requ i red for interruption. Improved diag­
nostic techn iques have been developed and
used that will provide more accurate arc
data. High-speed framing pictures, taken at
rates as high as two pictures per microsec­
ond, are providing better information on arc
size and form. These pictures cover the
interruption and reignition process, where it
occurs.
Improved techniques have been devel­
oped for precisely measuring the very small
postarc current. Such data will facilitate a
better understanding of arc power loss and
arc cooling during this period. Studies of the
characteristics of segments of the arc along
its axis will show the effectiveness of the gas
flow on the interruption process in various
sections of the nozzle.
Other topics being studied are double­
flow interrupters, thermal interruption model
calculations, the transition period between
thermal recovery and dielectric recovery,
and correlation of model interrupter test data
with performance data from ful l-size inter­
rupters. Project Manager: Glenn Bates
Transient recording systems
The i ndustry is taking a g rowing i nterest i n
the nature of switching surges, particularly
as they affect equipment design . For in­
stance, insulation requi rements are often

determined by switching-su rge stresses;
ultrahigh-speed relays of the future will
have to discriminate between nonfault and
fault surges; control devices for cu rrent
limiters will have to respond q u ickly to faults
in the l'lmiting zone; new arresters of the
highly nonlinear type may be subjected to
surges at their operating levels more fre­
quently than conventional arresters are. All
of these problems require a better under­
standing of the nature and frequency of
switching surges. EPRI is therefore conduct­
ing a project with Westinghouse Electric
Corp. that will develop an instrumentation
system capable of recording transients of
the switching-su rge type (RP751 ). The sys­
tem is presently being tested and debugged
at Westinghouse's H 'r gh Voltage Laboratory.
Two i nstrumentation systems will be built.
They are expected to be shipped for instal­
lation in Florida Power & Light Co. substa­
tions in August. One system will be installed
in a 500-kV substation, and the other system
will be installed in a 1 38-kV substation, both
located in the Fort Lauderdale area. Each
instrumentation system comprises the fol­
lowing major components:
o Three 500-kV high-frequency current
transducers
o Six 500-kV capacitive voltage dividers
o Three 5-A h igh-frequency cu rrent trans­
ducers for measurement of cu rrent in cur­
rent transformer secondaries
o Three 1 1 5-V high-freq uency transducers
for measurement of voltage in potential
transformer secondaries or cou pling-ca­
pacitor voltage transformer secondaries
o One 1 5-channel digital recording system
for the transducers mentioned above
The instrumentation system, which is
built for unattended operation, is capable of
recording transients with a frequency con­
tent of 2-1 00 kHz. A surge automatically
tr'r ggers the recorder, which stores 81 92
samples per channel d uring each recording
interval. Hence, at the fastest sampling rate ,
it can record about one full cycle (60 Hz)
each time it is triggered. However, in order
to conserve memory space, the recorder
will automatically switch between two select­
able sampling rates, which cou ld extend the
recording interval to 1 s or more if l ittle high­
frequency content is present in the transient.
The signal path within the recording system
is shown in Figure 2.
We expect that this i nstrumentation sys­
tem should collect the information needed
to better understand surges. It is possible
that a worst-case surge that is needed for

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

55

 ELECTR ICAL SYSTEMS DIVISI ON R&D STATUS REPORT
Figure 2 Digital recording system for high-frequency transients that occur during switching surges. A surge
will trigger the recorder, which will store 8 1 92 samples per channel during each recording interval. Its
maximum sampling rate is 1 sample every 2 1,s.

Signal
____,,!--------from transducer

Analog-to­
digital
converter

Signal-conditioning
unit

Trigger a--l
Data transfer
controller
�-

design of equipment may not be recorded
during the entire monitoring period, but
this does not mean that such a surge can
never occur. The value of the system lies in
its ability to incorporate empirical results
that will augment theoretical development
work. This could lead to im proved fault mod­
els that are necessary for the successful
deve lopment of ultrahigh-speed relays. The
simple models that have been used in the
past may no longer be adequate, and the
dynamic behavior of the fault may have to be
included in the model. The transient errors
of current and voltage transformers may
have adverse effects on both control devices
for fault current limiters and u ltrahig h-speed
relays. However, it should be possible to
estimate these errors using recorded data.
The resultant data base of power system
transients can also be used for testing or
verifying digital , protective-relay algorithm·s
and may, in addition, provide statistical in­
formation of importance to su bstation equip­
ment designers. Project Manager.· Stig
Nilsson
DISTRIBUTION
Load forecasting
Load forecasting for small areas is a neces­
sity for the distribution planner, since his
plans deal with specific feeders and substa­
tions, both of which serve li mited areas. The

56

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

-

-

0
�

Magnetic
tape

need for a small-area forecasting capability
is further reinforced when growth rates vary
within the service area. Two methods for
forecasting distribution load have been
developed during Phase 1 of this project
(RP570). Both methods forecast load for
small areas, typically by quarter sections
(1 60 acres).
All forecasts require appropriate data. The
two forecasting methods, time series trend
analysis and multivariate spatial analysis,
require different amounts of data. There is
also a striking contrast between the types of
data required by each model . Consequently,
the trend model produces a load extrapola­
tion or projection , and the multivariate
model produces a true load forecast.
The time series trend analysis model is a
tool familiar to load forecasters. However,
the conventional " log-of-load versus time"
plot rarely matches actual growth when
applied to small areas. In order to overcome
this deficiency, three curve shapes have
been made available to the planner- the
" load versus time" curve, the " log-of-load
versus time" curve, and the "S" curve. Tests
using Salt River Project data from the
Phoenix area and Pacific Gas and Electric
Co. (PG&E) data from the Fresno area indi­
cate that the "S" curve follows closely the
growth observed in many areas. However,
other options are provided that permit the
planner to select from a total of 1 2 possible
curve fits.

The major advantage of the trend model
is that data requirements are min imal . It has
been determined that from 7 to 1 0 years of
historical growth data for each small area are
sufficient to produce valid load projections.
The accuracy of these projections is sensi­
tive to the area size. Typically, the trend
model generates accu rate load projections
by quarter-section areas for the following 3
years. In order to gain similar accuracy for
load projections for 5 years and beyond , the
area size must be increased to about 38.8
km 2 ( 1 5 mi 2 ) .
Two constraints may b e applied t o the
trend model to i mprove the accuracy of
medium- and long-range load projections:
(1 ) the load projection for the individual small
area may be set at a load level that corre­
sponds with a definite point in time, such as
the horizon point, and (2) the sum of the
forecast smal l-area loads in a large area may
be set at a specified yearly value.
The trend model should be attractive to
utilities that have limited distribution data
and limited computer hardware and software
facilities .
The multivariate spatial analysis model is
a true load-forecasting model. For input, this
model requi res factors that are responsible
for load growth rather than a load history.
Fewer years of data are required than for
the trend model. However, the amount of
data needed to derive the correlated varia­
bles is greatly increased. The correlative
data (control variables) are largely demo­
graphic, covering land use, census informa­
tion, job classifications, and so on. The input
to the model starts with the historical load
data and control data for the urban area.
Typically, these historical data are required
for two points in time, such as 1 970 and
1 975. The forecasting algorithm then pre­
dicts the control variables for the years to be
forecast, such as 1 980, 1 985, and 1 990. The
data needed to derive the control variables
may not be readily available to the distribu­
tion planner but can usually be obtained
from urban planning agencies. Otherwise,
data must be obtained from studies per­
formed by the utility, which may have to
develop and i mplement an u rban model .
The mu ltivariate model i s obviously more
data-intensive. It rewards the distribution
planner with small-area forecasts in which
he can have great confidence. Again , tests
using Salt River Project data and PG&E data
indicate that the multivariate model is accu­
rate. Historical load data and control varia­
bles for 1 970 and 1 975 were used to pro­
duce a 1 976 load forecast for the Fresno,
California, area. This year was selected for
forecast because 1 976 was the last year of

 ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT

accurately known load. The forecast for the
Fresno area produced by the multivariate
model was within 2% of actual load. The
average error for the small areas was less
than 1 00 kW per area, with more than 1 000
small areas considered.
It should be emphasized that the above
test only established the accu racy of the
model. However, it shows that accurate fore­
casts are possible, but they depend on the
accu racy of the input data.
This project has resulted in load forecast­
ing models that can be used with a range of
computer hardware. The trend model should
be attractive to the small util ity that has lim­
ited computer capability. For the utility with
a large computer capability that can handle
factors responsible for load growth, the
multivariate model is available. This choice
between developed forecastin g models is
available to the distribution planner for the
first time.
The multivariate model is flexible and will
accept as many control variables as the user
wishes. Each user utility must establish
which variables contribute to the forecast
accuracy and must limit the variables to
those that have substantial impact on the
forecast. Both forecasting programs (the

time series trend analysis and the multi­
variate spatial analysis) and their respective
user manuals will be available to the industry
after the completion of this project in Octo­
ber 1 978. Project Manager: William Shula

SYSTEM PLANNING
AND OPERATION

Synchronous machine models
For over half a century, the parameter values
of synchronous machine models have been
based on calculations performed by ma­
chine designers. Various conventional mod­
els, with their calculated parameters, have
been used i n computer analyses to simulate
the behavior of the synchronous machine
under dynamic operating conditions. In
recent years, a number of investigators have
shown that the computer results do not
correlate well with test results. Accord i ngly,
fou r EPRI contractors will determine the
value of model parameters through test
methods and will use these parameters with
both conventional and new models in com­
puter studies simulating dynamic machine
behavior (RP997-1 , -2, -3, and -4).
C. A. Parsons & Co., Ltd . , will determine

model parameters by shop and field tests,
develop model structure, and validate model
performance. Ontario Hydro will determine
model parameters by field tests of system
behavior, validate model performance, and
evaluate model adequacy. Power Technol­
ogies, Inc., will determine model parameters
by the deMello method (based on the abrupt
opening of breakers), validate model per­
formance, and evaluate model adequacy.
Westinghouse Electric Corp. will determine
model parameters by shop and field tests
and by field tests of system behavior and will
validate model performance. The Parsons,
Ontario Hydro, and Westinghouse efforts
all involve frequency response testing
procedures.
Tests have been performed by each con­
tractor on one or more large synchronous
machines (over 450 MVA) to determine the
values of many of the parameters required
in conventional models. Studies are pro­
gressing to determine the various models
that will be used in the computer simulations.
The next six months of the project should
produce meaningful data for evaluation.
The project commenced in April 1 977 and
is scheduled for completion in the fall of
1 979. Project Manager: Don Bewley

EPRI JOURNAL July/August 1 978

57

 R & D Status Report
ENERGY ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENT DIVISION
Rene Males, Director

RESIDENTIAL HVAC SYSTEMS
Accurate assessment of the performance
and energy requirements of various heating,
ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC)
systems is important to electric utilities,
regulators, builders, and the public. Analysis
of HVAC system choice has been hampered
in the past by inadequate analytic tools and
incomplete and inappropriate data, particu­
larly field test data.
Ohio State University conducted a major
study that resulted in a mathematical model
and a computer program for calculating the
energy required to heat residential housing
units on hourly, daily, monthly, and seasonal
bases (RP1 37). Further work is being under­
taken to validate the model for different US.
climatic conditions, to simplify it for ease of
application, and to calculate thermal effi­
ciencies of differen t modes of residential
space heating (RP1 364).
Uncertainty about the load and use char­
acteristics of residential heat pumps and
about the impact of their use on electric
utility system loads motivated a large-scale
data collection and analysis effort by West­
inghouse Electric Corp., Advanced Systems
Technology (RP432). A follow-on study by
Gordian Associates Inc. is using the data
developed by Westinghouse to assess the
impact of residential heat pumps on electric
utility system loads (RP1 1 00).
Field testing
residential HVAC systems
The choice and sizing of HVAC systems is of
importance to utilities' kWh sales, load pro­
files, and capacity requ i rements. Analysis of
HVAC system choice has been hampered in
the past by inadequate analytic tools and by
i ncomplete and inappropriate data. In partic­
ular, there has been a lack of field test data
comprehensive enough to use for engineer­
ing analysis. The distinction between bench
test data and field test data is important,
since the real world corresponds to field
tests but decisions currently being made are
normally based on bench tests - hence, the
58

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

importance of developing accurate field test
data. EPRl's Demand and Conservation
Program, through its technical performance
and measurement subprogram, is attempt­
i ng to improve the quality and quantity of
data and the quality and usefulness of ana­
lytic approaches.
The Demand and Conservation Program
stops short of designing and testing new
end-use technology. This type of activity is
undertaken by the Energy Utilization and
Conservation Technology Program and the
Solar Program (Fossil Fuel and Advanced
Systems Division) . It is clear that analyzing
the use characteristics of HVAC systems
and testing the effects on utilities are closely
related to these programs' research inter­
ests. The Demand and Conservation Pro­
gram staff coordinates its research in this
area with the FFAS Division. (The relation­
ships between these programs are de­
scribed in the EPRI Journal, October 1 976,
p. 25.)
Residential heating
EPRI contracted with Ohio State University
to conduct a major study that resulted in the
development of a mathematical model and a
computer program for accurately calculating
the energy required by residential housing
units on hourly, daily, monthly, and seasonal
bases (RP1 37). The model is general
enough to be applied to any type of residen­
tial structure in any climate, given the appro­
priate i n put data. A detailed version of this
model has been tested in Columbus, Ohio.
The general mathematical model is designed
for application to various types of single- and
multifamily dwelling u n it s, (i.e . , units con­
structed and i nsulated with different mate­
rials, units located in different climatic
zones of the continental United States, and
units with all-electric or fossil-fuel heating
systems).
The computer program developed in the
study was produced by consolidating two
widely accepted building heating and cool­
i ng load programs (not heretofore applied

to residential structures) and several new
programs.
The energy requirements model was
verified by extensive calculations and field
measurements made on four identical two­
story frame houses (one of which was un­
occupied throughout the project), a ranch­
style house, a split-level house, and three
townhouse apartments. In order to study
variations in energy consumption of different
systems, researchers changed heating and
cooling equi pment in two of the frame resi­
dences during the project. In addition to
the monitoring of the houses themselves,
researchers collected data on dry-bulb
temperatures and on di rect and indirect
solar radiation. Other weather information
was obtained from the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administratio n .
In the course o f validating the energy
requirements model , calculations were
made of the end-use distribution of energy
necessary to satisfy the thermal loads for
gas furnaces, electric furnaces, electric
baseboard heating, and air-to-air heat
pumps. While the samples were quite small
in a statistical sense, the instrumentation of
the houses was complete enough to sug­
gest how energy is used in various systems
in different climatic zones. Results from
Columbus, Ohio, are shown in Table 1 .
I n addition to collection and analysis of
energy consumption characteristics of the
Columbus sites studied by Ohio State, data
were gathered from 48 homes in six utility
service areas, which represent a wide range
in the annual n umber of heating degree­
days. ''' These data will be analyzed in an-

''A degree-day is a unit measuring the extent to which the
outdoor mean (average of maximum and minimum) daily
dry-bulb temperature falls below (in the case of heating)
or rises above (in the case of cooling) an assumed base.
The base is normally taken as 65"F unless otherwise
designated. One degree-day is counted for each degree
of deficiency below (for heating) or excess over (for
cooling) the assumed base, for each calendar day on
which such deficiency or excess occurs.

 Table 1
ENERGY USED IN HEATING SYSTEMS
(% end use)

Central Gas
Furnace
(2 houses)
Stack losses (estimated)

Central Electric
Furnace
(2 houses)

Electric
Baseboard
Heating
(1 house)

25

Furnace cycling and
jacket losses

2-4

0-1

Air distribution losses

2 1 -35

22-32

Pilot light losses

2-3

Energy to satisfy
heating load

35-47

1 00

66-78

8

(.)
·c:
QJ

a,

x

=

Energy saved
(heat pump vs. electric furnace)

QJ

u
C:

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Heating Degree-days (October-March)

Figure 1 Residential heating energy requirements (in index form) are plotted against the number of heating
degree-days between October and March. Heat pumps use much less energy than electric furnaces in cli­
mates that average approximately 5000 degree-days over a six-month period (examples of cities in this heat­
ing degree-day range are Philadelphia and Albuquerque). In climates where the six-month seasonal load
exceeds 5000 degree-days, electric resistance heating is needed with increasing frequency as a backup to
heat pump systems, and the energy savings decline.

other study (RP1364 ), which has as its ob­
jectives the validation of the Columbus
results for a wide variety of climatic zones, a
simplification of the present general model ,
and further assessment of the comparative
performance of various heating systems.

Heat pump data collection and analysis
Although manufacturers have provided a
great deal of test data on the performance of
residential heat pumps, little has been known
about actual performance of heat pumps
installed in residences. EPR I and the Asso­
ciation of Edison Illuminating Companies
(AEIC) sponsored a study of the load and
use characteristics of electric heat pumps i n
single-family residential housing units.
The primary objective of this study per­
formed by Westinghouse, Advanced Sys­
tems Technology was the compilation of a
data file on 1 20 residences in 1 2 widely
varying degree-day zones (RP432). Data
on heat pumps, di rect and indirect solar
radiation, and dry-bu lb temperatu res were
recorded at 1 5-min intervals for two heating
seasons and one cooling season. In addi­
tion, 43 of the heat pump installations had
automatic timers that bypassed the heat
pump on alternate days, thus effectively
making them electric resistance fu rnaces.
By comparing the energy used i n resistance­
heat-only operation with the energy used
by the heat pump during normal operation,
estimates of seasonal performance factors
were made for each of the two heating
seasons.
In addition to the seasonal performance
factor calculations , load profiles were devel­
oped for the alternate-day systems. The
calculations resulting from this study tended
to confirm a number of widely held views
about heat pumps and illustrated several
other points, which while less obvious, are
consistent with conventional ideas about
heat pumps. As expected , the seasonal
performance factor declined as the number
of heating degree-days increased for a given
six-month period . That is, in colder climates
the heat pump compressor alone could not
handle the entire heating load, and backup
resistance heating was necessary. In terms
of total energy savings, however, the maxi­
mum savings compared with resistance
heating occurred at approximately 5000
degree-days for a six-month season , with
savings tapering off as the n umber of heating
degree-days increased (Figure 1 ). It should
be pointed out that the selection of a six­
month season does not show that additional
savings could be realized in colder climates
because of longer heating seasons. Also not
s hown is the likelihood that heat pumps
could handle the parts of the heating season
EPRI JOURNAL J uly/ August 1978

59

 ENERGY ANALYSIS AND ENVIRONMENT DIVISION R&D STATUS REPORT

before October and after March more effec­
tively than they could the midwinter portion
of the heating season shown in Figure 1 .
Hourly load profiles tended to peak i n the
m idmorning for daily average temperatures
up to 1 6 ° C (60 ° F) . For warmer tempera­
tures, the heating load shifted to a cooling
load with normal afternoon peaking.
This study has provided important data
and analysis on individual residences and on
group data. It is not know n , however, how
the load and use characteristics of heat
pumps will affect utility system load profiles.
In an investigation of this topic, Gordian
Associates will endeavor to simulate the
effect of various levels of heat pump satura­
tion on system loads for d ifferent types of
utilities, as characterized by climate and the
level of sales accounted for by residential,
commercial, i ndustrial , and other customer
classes (RP1 1 00). Through the development
of simulation models that can be used by
individual util ities, it will be possible for com­
panies to assess the effects that residential
heat pump saturation would be likely to have
on thei r system loads.
The following types of information were
collected in RP1 37 and RP432: energy used
by the heating system, total electrical load
for the house, and indoor temperatures. I n
the energy requirements study (RP1 37),
flow meters were used to measure natural
gas consumption, and several major appli­
ances were monitored. In the heat pump
study (RP432), compressor load for heating
and cooling, energy used by the indoor fan,
and the backup resistance heating mode
were monitored separately. Both studies
collected data on direct and indirect solar
radiation and dry-bulb temperatures in the
vicinit y of the homes that were being moni­
tored. All the data were recorded on mag­
netic tape at 1 5-min intervals and translated
to be computer-readable.
In addition to the magnetic tape data,
extensive surveys were made to develop
data on building and household characteris­
tics for each residence monitored, and AEIC
conducted a survey of customers' attitudes
and their experiences with heat pumps.
Program Manager: Robert Crow
MODEL VERIFICATION
AND ASSESSMENT

Recently developed energy system models
are an important resource for energy studies
and policy evaluations. Model verification
and assessment are required, however,
before EPRI and the industry can have con­
fidence in the application of these models.

60

EPRI JOURNAL July/ August 1 978

For a model to be fully understood and eval­
uated, it must be run by someone other
than the modeler. Such a verification can
reveal the deficiencies as well as the
strengths of the model and ensure that the
modeler's description is complete and ade­
quate for the needs of the user. The purpose
of RP1 0 1 5 is to develop a trial model verifica­
tion and assessment facility for evaluation
of selected energy system models.
The electric power industry has been
building and using models for a long time i n
planning f o r capacity expansion and i n
scheduling existing generation capacity to
satisfy customers' energy demand at mini­
m u m cost. The industry, through such or­
ganizations as the Edison Electric Institute,
the American Public Power Association, and
EPR I , has recently provided support for
developing large-scale models that encom­
pass the i nteractions between the electricity
sector of the economy and the rest of the
energy-economy system. In addition, there
are a n umber of i mportant models not used
directly by the electric power industry that
play a role in dete rmining public policies of
i nterest to the industry. Sponsors of these
more general models include the National
Science Foundation, private foundations,
and government agencies.
Models that are of value to the electric
utility industry include the Baughman­
Joskow Regionalized Electricity Model
(REM), the Wharton Macroeconomic Energy
Model, the Hudson-Jorgenson Macroeco­
nomic Energy Model, the Manne ETA and
ETA-MACRO models, the Pilot Energy­
Economic Model, the Gulf-SRI Energy Sys­
tem Mode l , the Brookhaven Energy System
Optimization Model, and the FEA Project
Independence Evaluation System . Each of
these models i n cludes an explicit represen­
tation of the electric power sector, and (to
varying degrees) each model is being used
in technology assessment and/or policy
analysis relevant to the electric power in­
dustry. It is i mportant for electric utilities to
be certain that such models accurately
represent the real world. This is the basic
rationale for sponsoring the model verifica­
tion and assessment project being con­
ducted at the M IT Energy Laboratory
(RP10 1 5) .
The model assessment laboratory set u p
in this project provides two types of evalua­
tion. One type is an overview assessment of
selected models whose strengths and weak­
nesses EPRI needs to determine before
using them in connection with new technol­
ogies or for making policy analyses. Such

overview assessments are also used to iden­
tify models for which a more detailed assess­
ment is required. The other type is a critical
assessment of models that EPRI intends to
use extensively. C ritical assessments pro­
vide an i n-depth analysis of model formula­
tion, data development and integrity, and
appropriateness of statistical estimation
techniques. These evaluatlons also include
replications of statistical estimation and
simulation results and sensitivity studies of
critical points. A key distinction between an
overview assessment and an in-depth as­
sessment is that the latter includes the com­
plete assimilation of the model on the model
assessment laboratory's computer system.
The project is a major step toward devel­
oping effective procedures for the indepen­
dent evaluatio n of e nergy models. I ndepen­
dent model assessment is a critical element
in making models more accessible and use­
ful in technology assessment and policy
analysis. Such thi rd-party assessments
identify the weak points of a model's theoret­
ical structure, empi rical techniques, and
implementation procedures. This informa­
tion can be used to i mprove the effectiveness
of the existing model and to help direct the
development of future models.
I ndependent assessment is most effective
when undertaken as a cooperative venture,
not as an adversary proceeding, with sup­
po rt from and dialogue with the modeler.
Independent assessment can increase con­
fidence not only in a particular model but
also in the credibility of the model developer,
who has an expert role to play in technology
assessment and policy analysis.
During its first year, MIT's model assess­
ment laboratory undertook overview assess­
ments of the Baughman-Joskow REM and
the Wharton Macroeconomic Energy Model.
It is now completing an in-depth assessment
of the REM. The results of these studies will
be available in an EPRI report this fall. The
research thus far has been successful and
has played an important role in shaping
EPR l ' s use of the REM and the Wharton
model. Thi rd-party verification and assess­
ment have e nabled EPRI to better under­
stand the strengths and deficiencies of the
models and to improve model utilization in
planning the research and i n making studies.
Efforts are under way to arrange cofund­
ing with DOE for the second year of the
model assessment laboratory. An in-depth
assessment will be made of a model of mu­
tual interest to EPRI and DOE - a model that
would be used to analyze sign ificant elec­
tric utility industry issues. Project Mana­
ger: Richard Richels

 New
Technical
Reports
Each issue of the JOURNAL includes summaries
of EPRI 's recently published reports.
Inquiries on technical content may be directed
to the EPRI project manager named at the end of
each summary: P . O. Box 10412, Palo Alto, Cali­
fornia 94303; (4 1 5) 855-2000.
Requests for copies of specific reports should
be directed to Research Reports Center, P.O. Box
1 0 090, Palo Alto, California 94303; (415)
961-9043. There is no charge for reports re­
quested by EPRI member utilities, government
agencies (federal, state, local), or foreign organi­
zations with which EPRI has an agreement for ex­
change of information. Others pay a small charge.
Research Reports Center will send a catalog and
price list on request.
Standing orders for free copies of reports in EPRI
program areas may be placed by EPRI member
utilities, libraries of U.S. national, state, and local
government agencies, and the official representa­
tive of any foreign organization with which EPRI
has an information exchange agreement. For de­
tails, write to EPRI Communications, P.O. Box
1 04 1 2 , Palo Alto, California 94303.
Microfiche copies are available from National
Technical Information Service, P.O. Box 1 553 ,
Springfield, Virginia 22151 .

permanently installed in the substation, this cali­
bration must be done on-site.
A prototype field calibration system for CCVTs
has been developed by the National Bureau of
Standards in the form of a compact mobile unit
that is comparatively easy to use. Only a two-man
crew and minimal support from the local utility are
required to assemble and operate the modular
system at the test site. EPRI Project Manager:
Stig Nilsson

information in a form that is often unsuitable for
study purposes. The objective of this research by
Westinghouse Electric Corp. is to develop an
alternative to time-domain simulation for damping
studies. This alternative involves the use of a
linearized system model and the calculation of only
those natural frequencies of oscillation and damp­
ing factors in the system that are most intimately
related to generator rotor motions, EPRI Project
Manager: Paul Anderson

Surge Behavior of UD Cable Systems

Far-infrared Inspection of Cable Insulation

EL-720 Final Report (RP795-1)
In this project, McGraw-Edison Co. investigated
the behavior of surges that enter an underground
distribution system. The industry has accepted, for
the most part, that the margin of protection pro­
vided by a typical distribution arrester installed at
the overhead-underground junction of a 15-kV
underground system will be adequate to protect
the distribution equipment. However, this margin of
protection is diminished as the distribution voltage
is increased to 25 and 35 kV.
Two principal conclusions were drawn from the
results of this project. First, underground distribu­
tion cables shorter than 9 1 0 m (3000 ft) do not
atten uate surges enough to significantly influence
the margin for insulation coordination. Second,
multiple arresters are necessary to achieve ac­
ceptable margins of protection for 25-kV and 35-kV
underground cables.
The report provides m odels and techniques
needed by the distribution engineer to design the
appropriate surge protection system. EPRI
Project Manager: William Shula
Extremely High Strength Porcelain

ELECTRICAL SYSTEMS
Electrochemical Treeing in Cable

EL-647 Final Report (RP133)
The purpose of this work by Phelps Dodge Cable
& Wire Co. was to establish the influence of various
electrical, thermal, and chemical parameters on
the rate of growth of electrochemical trees in
polyethylene (PE), cross-linked polyethylene
(XLPE), and ethylene-propylene rubber (EPR).
The main conclusions from this work are that:
the rate of electrochemical tree growth is strongly
influenced by voltage stress and frequency; both
XLPE and EPR exhibit substantially lower tree­
growth rates than PE; the lower tree-growth rate in
XLPE is attributable primarily to the presence of
catalyst by-products of the cross-linking reaction,
principally acetophenone; and electrochemical
trees decrease the dielectric strength of PE, XLPE,
and EPR. EPRI Project Manager: Felipe Garcia
A Prototype Field Calibration
System for Coupling
Capacitor Voltage Transformers (CCVTs)

EL-690 Final Report (RP134-1)
In recent years, the CCVT has come into wide use
for 0.3%-accuracy EHV revenue metering in
interties between utilities; this metering has been
performed fo r many years by the inductive poten­
tial transformer (PT). Whereas the PT has been
thoroughly proven in this application, the CCVT
has not. Considerable user experience has raised
doubts about its adequacy and has suggested the
need for periodic calibration. Since the CCVT is

EL-722 Final Report (RP427-1 )
McGraw-Edison Co. has developed a high­
strength electrical porcelain with inexpensive raw
materials and standard porcelain manufacturing
methods. The porcelain is reinforced at the glassy
phase with strong needle-shaped crystals of mul­
lite, which are grown during the firing cycle. Addi­
tional strength is gained by decreasing the closed
porosity of the fired material to nearly zero.
The electrical properties of this material are
approximately equivalent to those of standard
porcelain. The cost is approximately 5% higher
than standard porcelain because of increased
costs of raw materials and a small additional labor
cost. The use of high-strength porcelain can lead
to smaller and lighter insulators, less chance of
breakage, increased safety, and a subsequent
savings in total cost to the utility. EPRI Project
Manager: E. R. Perry
Frequency-Domain Analysis of
Low-Frequency Oscillations
in Large Electric Power Systems

EL-726 Interim Report (RP744-1)
When major electric power systems are intercon­
nected through ties of relatively small capacity,
low-frequency intersystem oscillations are likely to
be troublesome under some operating conditions.
The potential for unstable oscillations must be
considered in planning bulk generation and trans­
mission systems, in designing control systems for
turbine generators and de line terminals, and in
planning system operations.
Present practice depends almost entirely on
time-domain simulation for large-system analysis,
with computing costs that are relatively high and

EL-738 Interim Report (RP794-1 )
United Technologies Research Center studied the
feasibility of real-time, in-process detection of
voids and contaminants in the polyethylene insula­
tion of power cables. The detection technique in­
volved far-infrared laser scattering f rom defects
embedded in the insulation. The project included
demonstration of noncontacting, nondestructive,
real-time detection of voids and contaminants in
thin slabs of polyethylene and cross-linked poly­
ethylene materials, in a stationary 25-kV power
cable, and in the same cable in motion. EPR!
Project Manager: Joseph Piscioneri
SF.·Dielectric Fill-Gas Gage

EL-747 Final Report (RP656-1)
The use of SF6-gas-insu/ated equipment in sub­
stations is gaining wide acceptance. For reliable
operation, however, a gage for continuous moni­
toring is necessary to ensure that gas density is
maintained within design limits and that the gas is
not contaminated. The gage should be able to
detect leaks of more than 1 -2% per year and gas
contaminants of significant levels.
Conventional gages measure only total gas
pressure, so gas density measurements are de­
rived indirectly from pressure and temperature
measurements. In this project by Nucleonic Data
Systems, Inc., a prototype gage demonstrated that
it is feasible to directly measure both the density of
SF6 gas and the gas humidity. EPRI Project
Manager: Stig Nilsson

ENERGY ANALYSIS
AND ENVIRONMENT
Environmental Effects of Right-of-Way
Management on Forested Ecosystems

EA-491 Final Report (RP103-3)
WestVirginia University made studies of ecological
parameters in electric transmission corridors to
determine the impact of vegetation management
practices. Repeated broadcast herbicide spray­
ings produced a low plant cover dominated by
sedges, grasses, ferns, or herbicide-resistant
woody species. Selective herbicide treatment, in
which shrubs and small trees were avoided in the
spraying, caused a gradual increase in communi­
ties of woody plants.
The studies showed that infrared photography
offers promise as an aid in routing new transmis­
sion lines, mapping right-of-way vegetation , zoning
transmission corridors into management units,
determining the amount of bare and eroding soil,
appraising the completeness of herbicide cover­
age after broadcast and selective spraying, and
identifying dead and dying edge trees. EPA/
Project Manager: Robert Goldstein

EPRI JOURNAL July/August 1 978

61

 NEW TECHNICAL REPORTS

FOSSIL FUEL
AND ADVANCED SYSTEMS

The Dynamic Behavior
of a Mirror Fusion Reactor

ER-521 Interim Report (RP547-1 )
This report by the University of Michigan describes
one of the plasma physics models being used as
part of a project to investigate the interface of
fusion power systems with future electric utility
systems. The scope of the project covers issues
related to plasma physics, the fusion reactor,
balance of plant, and the utility grid. Interactions
between these issues are being defined and
analyzed in order to identify useful directions in
fusion R&D.
In particular, this report describes a simplified
but accurate representation ot a burning
deuterium-tritium plasma contained in a magnetic
mirror fusion reactor. Parametric relationships
between the plasma characteristics and engineer­
ing design elements are described, including, for
example, the impact made on fusion power density
by changes in neutral-beam injection energy and
angle, magnetic mirror ratio, value of magnetic
field, and other variables EPRI Project Manager:
Noel Amherd
Solar-Thermal Conversion to Electricity,
Utilizing a Central Receiver,
Open-Cycle Gas Turbine Design

ER-652 Final Report (RP475-1 )
Black & Veatch prepared a conceptual design for
a commercial-scale solar-electric power plant
that uses an open-cycle gas turbine as the prime
mover. The design employs an elevated central
receiver surrounded by a field of 7000 heliostats.
There are four receiver cavities at the top of the
tower, one facing each quadrant of the heliostat
field. Energy storage, both buffer and long-term,
is provided by fossil fuels. The fuel, either oil or gas,
is burned in combustors that are in a parallel
arrangement with the solar receivers.
The turbine inlet gas temperature is 9821066 0 C. Because these temperatures preclude
the use of currently available metals tor the heat
transfer surface, ceramics are employed. Each of
the four receiver cavities contains about 70
U-tubes made of silicon carbide. Although many
of the properties of silicon carbide are well docu­
mented, the material has never been used in an
application of this type. The next activity in this
program is the design , fabrication , and testing of a
bench-model solar receiver with silicon carbide
tubes. EPRI Project Manager: John Cummings

with high residuum concentration in the reactor.
Solid-liquid separation by antisolvent precipitation ,
high-vacuum distillation, and hydrocloning was
demonstrated. EPRI Project Manager: Jerry Fox
Development of Sodium-Sulfur
Batteries for Utility Application

EM-683 Interim Report (RP 1 28-4)
In a project conducted by General Electric Co.
between May 1 976 and September 1 977, mate­
rials, components, and designs anticipated for
commercial hardware were specified and demon­
strated on small (30-Wh) laboratory cells. These
small cells demonstrated a life of over 1 000 cycles
(nearly half the goal for utility application) and
sustained capacities exceeding 80% of theoretical
capacity for over 250 cycles. Degradation of in­
ternal glass seals was the major failure mech­
anism. Because of the success of these small
cells, scale-up to the full-scale, 300-Wh cell will
be initiated. Manufacturing and cost studies pro­
ject that this battery system will have a selling price
below the goal of $40 / kWh tor electric utility
application . EPRI Project Manager: James Birk
Development of High-Efficiency,
Cost-Effective Zinc-Chlorine
Batteries for Utility Peak-Shaving

EM-71 1 Interim Report
(RP226-2 and RP226-1 -2)
During 1 976, Energy Development Associates
tested two full-scale cells (about 1 .5-kWh capacity)
and initiated testing of a 1 0-cell (20-V) 20-kWh
battery. I nstrumentation and control difficulties
limited testing of these systems. Design, manu­
facturing, and cost studies suggest an estimated
selling price below the goal of $40 /kWh for utility
application. EPRI Project Manager: James Birk
Assessment of the
Tokamak Confinement Data Base

H-Coal Integrated Pilot Plant

ER-71 4 Final Report (RP920-1 )
In a 1 977 survey of the tokamak physics data base,
Science Applications, Inc., identified the important
tokamak physics characteristics necessary for
developing a fusion reactor. An aggressive survey
was then carried out to establish the range of
relevant parameters that has been achieved in
tokamak experiments, the diagnostic techniques
and their reliability in determining these param­
eters, and the state of understanding of the basic
physical laws that cause performance limitations.
The findings are detailed in this report, along
with an overview of the tokamak fusion reactor
program and suggestions that will help expand the
data base. A brief status report of the mirror fusion
reactor research is included. EPRI Project
Manager: Robert Scott

AF-681 Final Report, Vols. 1 and 2 (RP238-1 )
The H-Coal process catalytically converts coal to
oil in an ebullated-bed reactor. In addition to
flexibility of operation, this process offers the
advantage of constant catalyst activity through
on-line addition and withdrawal of catalyst and
reactor backmixing, which allows low tempera­
tures for the reactor feed streams.
Hydrocarbon Research, Inc., designed a 200600-t/d coal liquefaction pilot plant. In a laboratory
program to support this design, a 3-t/d process
development unit was operated to demonstrate
operation with heavy boiler fuel oil, operation at
commercial reactor gas velocities, and operation

FP-735 Final Report (RP835-1 )
A potential approach to the control of nitric oxide
(NO) in utility boilers and to the modification of the
combustion process is the selective homogeneous
gas-phase reduction of N O with ammonia. A
laboratory study was conducted by KVB, Inc., at a
scale of 3 x 1 0 6 Btu /h to evaluate the applicability
of ammonia injection for the reduction of NO in
coal-fired power plants. Four coals were tested to
determine achievable levels of NOx reduction and
by-product emission . EPRI Project Manager:
Donald Teixeira

62

EPRI JOURNAL July/August 1 978

Noncatalytic NO, Removal With Ammonia

Sodium-Antimony Trichloride Battery
Development Program for Load Leveling

EM-751 I nterim Report (RP1 09-3)
Research conducted from January 1 976 to July
1 977 by ESB Inc. demonstrated a lifetime of 500
cycles for 20-Wh laboratory cells. Failure of the
electrolyte, seals, and current collector has typi­
cally resulted in short cycle life for these laboratory
cells. Manufacturing and cost studies show that
there is a low probability the sodium-antimony tri­
chloride battery will achieve the cost targets for
electric utility application. EPRI Project Manager:
James Birk
Economics of Texaco
Gasification-Combined-Cycle Systems

AF-753 Final Report (RP239)
This report presents the results of an economic
screening study for air-blown Texaco coal gasifica­
tion coupled with combined-cycle power genera­
tion. The objective of this study by Fluor Engineers
and Constructors, Inc., was to determine whether
the economic advantages of an air-blown Texaco
gasifier are greater than those of an oxygen-blown
Texaco gasifier. EPRI Project Manager: Michael
Gluckman
Survey of Feed Pump Outages

FP-754 Final Report (RP641 )
The emergence of power plant availability as a
critical parameter for electric utilities motivated an
investigation by Energy Research & Consultants
Corp. into the reliability and failure mechanisms of
feedwater pumps. An industrywide survey was
made to provide data that would help identify
reasons for loss of availability . The report sum­
marizes specific design , operation , and mainte­
nance deficiencies and system-related problems
responsible for most outages that result from feed
pump failures.
It is concluded that feed pump problems require
more of the high-technology e ngineering that is
now being applied to many other types of rotating
machinery. Also, it is concluded that less emphasis
is needed on maximizing pump efficiency at full
load and more is needed on operating perfor­
mance over the entire load range. Recommenda­
tions are made for improving feed pump reliability.
EPRI Project Manager: John Dimmer

NUCLEAR POWER
Engineering Aspects of the
Pool-Type LMFBR, 1 000 MW (e)

NP-645-SY Final Report,
Vols. 1 , 2, and 3 (RP620-21 and RP620-22)
LMFBR development in national programs here
and abroad has established that both loop-type
and pool-type primary coolant systems should be
considered as viable options for an LMFBR power
plant of practical size. Since the technological
base in the United States for the pool-type plant is
significantly smaller than that for the loop type, this
study by Rockwell I nternational Corp. and Bechtel
Corp. of a 1 000-MW (e) pool-type plant concen­
trated on those areas of the plant unique to the
pool concept in order to establish a wider basis
for reassessment of this concept. The work indi­
cates that the pool concept is feasible with respect

 NEW TECHNICAL REPORTS
to design, construction, and licensing practice in
the United States. EPRI Project Manager: Joseph
Matte
A Study of Zircaloy-4-Steam
Oxidation Reaction Kinetics, Part 2

NP-734 Final Report (RP249-2)
Experimental studies have been performed at
Worcester Polytechnic Institute to evaluate the
oxidation of reactor-grade Zircaloy-4 tubing in
steam throughout the 649-982 ° C temperature
range. Oxidation behavior in this temperature
range was found to be substantially different from
that predicted by either the Baker-Just equation or
extrapolation of oxidation data from temperatures
above 982 ° C. EPRI Project Manager: Howard
Ocken
Planning Support Document for the
EPRI LWR Fuel Performance Program

N P-737-SR Special Report
The progress made in 1977 by EPRl's LWR fuel
performance projects is reported. The basic goal
of these projects is to develop a comprehensive
fuel performance data base with verified predictive
models and codes to improve fuel rod reliability
and hence increase plant availability. EPRI
Project Manager: Adrian Roberts
UCB Reflood Program:
Experimental Data Report

N P-743 Inte rim Report (RP248-1 )
I n this report by the University of California at
Berkeley, experimental results are presented for
the quenching of a vertical 3.66-m tube by the
bottom injection of water at temperatures of about
21 ° C and 66 ° C and at rates that gave water
velocities at the tube inlet of 25-1 80 mm/s. Thirty­
two combinations of initial tube temperature, water
velocity, and water temperature were examined,
and the results include the variation of tube wall
temperature, the equivalent height of the water
in the tube, the flow rates of the exiting liquid and
steam, and the temperature of the exiting fluid.
Local heat fluxes and apparent heat transfer
coefficients in the region above the quench front
are also presented. EPRI Project Manager:
K. H. Sun
Nondestructive Evaluation of
Steam Turbine Rotors

NP-744 Interim Report (RP502-2)
The discontinuities present in large steam turbine
rotor forgings and their growth during service
are of major concern, since failure of these rotors
is extremely expensive in terms of potential loss
both of lives and of revenues. I n-service inspection
of rotors is thus a significant part of electric utilities'
quality control programs to assure the safe and
continued operation of power generating stations.
This report by Ba11elle, Columbus Laboratories
reviews nondestructive evaluation processes
used for rotor inspection , describes the types of
internal indications that are considered technically
relevant from a stress distribution viewpoint, and
recommends ways of improving rotor examina­
tion. EPRI Project Manager: Floyd Gelhaus
Probabilistic Safety Analysis I l l

NP-749 Interim Report (RP767-1 )
In continuing work on probabilistic methods devel-

opment and application, Science Applications,
I nc., studied anticipated transients without scram
and analyzed external fuel-cycle risk. The codes
developed have application both in fault tree
assessment and in accident consequence estima­
tions. A study of earthquake frequency was also
made. EPRI Project Manager: Gerald Lellouche
Major Outage Trends in LWRs

NP-755 Interim Report (RP705)
This report by Science Applications, Inc., is a
summary of major outages that occurred in LWRs
from January 1 97 1 through June 1 977. Only
outages of greater than 1 00 hours' duration (ex­
clusive of refueling outages) are included. The
outage trends related to various reactor systems
and components are presented as functions of
plant age and calendar year. The principal con­
tributors to major outages are ranked by their
effect on the overall outage time for PWRs and
BWRs. In addition, the outage history of each
operating nuclear plant greater than 1 50 MW (e)
is presented, along with a brief summary of those
outages lasting more than two months. EPRI
Project Manager: William Lavallee
SUNYAB-EPRI Combined
Injection ECC Program

N P-757 Inte rim Report (RP341 )
After the test facility and test runs are described,
preliminary analyses of results of experiments
undertaken by the State University of New York at
Buffalo are given both for reflooding and for com­
bined reflooding and top injection . Characteristic
flow oscillations observed during the experiments
are also described. EPRI Project Manager:
Romney Duffey
Proceedings: Workshop on
EPRI Availability Engineering

NP-759-WS
EPRI held a workshop on availability e ngineering
methods in Albuquerque, New Mexico, October
1 7-19, 1 977. The workshop evolved from an
eight-month study by Holmes & Narver, Inc., on
assessment of methods for implementing avail­
ability engineering in electric power plants. The
1 01 workshop participants represented 32 utilities,
14 architect-engineers/consultants, 5 equipment
manufacturers, and 6 other organizations. Partici­
pants divided into small working groups to address
various issues and concerns pertaining to in­
creased application of availability engineering
methods in utilities and related industries. Sum­
maries of the working groups' recommendations
and conclusions are included in the report. EPRI
Project Manager: William Lavallee
Pipe Stress Intensity Factors and
Coupled Depressurization and
Dynamic Crack Propagation

N P-763 Annual Report (RP231 -1 )
This report describes predictive models developed
by the University of Washington for the initiation
and propagation of cracks in pipes and presents
the numerical results obtained during the second
year of the study. Crack initiation was studied by
evaluating stress intensity factors under static
conditions for a series of representative flaws.
EPRI Project Manager: John Carey

EPRI JOURNAL

July/ August 1 978

63

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