ATTACHMENT B: No Growth Scenario Summary • • • Climate change is at the worst end of consideration: -6 weeks peak, 50% combined flow and ET impacts; Demand growth rate is zero; current treated water demand of approximately 3,500 acre-feet continues through 2065; Flow adjustment factors are at their expected values; Total shortages Below are the shortages to Aspen and instream flows, relative to Aspen’s annual treated water demand Annual Shortages 12,000 10,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Hydrologic year Annual shortage to Aspen Annual instream flow shortage Aspen's estimated demand 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 - 1970 Acre-feet 8,000 Municipal Shortages Municipal and Industrial (M&I) water refers to the portion of Aspen’s water system that is diverted to supply its residential, commercial and industrial customer needs. Assuming M&I is the higher priority and instream flows take the first “hit”, there are still M&I shortages in 15 of 25 years. Number of years with M&I shortages Number of years M&I shortage exceeds 100 acre-feet Number of years M&I shortage exceeds 1000 acre-feet Number of years M&I shortage exceeds 2000 acre-feet Number of years M&I shortage exceeds 3000 acre-feet Number of years M&I shortage exceeds 5000 acre-feet 15 10 1 0 0 0 Instream Flows The following graphic summarizes instream flow levels that either meet or fall below instream flow decrees, over the 1970 to 1994 hydrologic period of record. The combined flows of Castle and Maroon Creek should total 27.3 cfs to meet instream flow levels (13.3 cfs for Castle Creek; 14.0 cfs for Maroon Creek). Impacts to the creeks increase in severity with darkening colors. KEY <=0 Combined 0.01-5 Castle/Maroon 5.01-10 Flow 10.01-15 in 15.01-20 20.01-27.3 CFS CY Wk WY Wk 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 1 5 19 19 20 19 17 17 17 19 21 28 36 48 62 90 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 75 ## ## 67 45 28 21 19 18 13 21 15 39 50 33 20 17 21 21 22 21 22 21 22 21 23 26 33 49 81 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 67 87 ## 87 63 53 43 28 25 18 15 21 25 23 11 7 3 6 18 19 19 19 17 17 17 18 21 27 38 61 89 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 55 25 14 3 -2 -6 1 -1 -0 -2 -2 5 1 4 1 2 18 20 17 16 16 15 14 13 17 21 28 42 61 89 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 81 ## 62 ## 76 62 47 30 35 36 23 20 16 13 10 4 2 4 19 18 18 18 17 16 15 15 17 21 31 45 69 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 51 27 8 8 4 5 5 -0 -5 -9 -7 -9 -9 ## -6 18 16 16 17 16 16 17 15 18 24 29 45 58 88 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 80 92 68 45 62 ## ## ## 54 47 34 27 19 12 11 10 6 1 1 17 16 17 17 16 16 18 17 20 25 34 50 72 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 84 35 26 27 13 9 4 10 4 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -1 3 15 14 14 13 12 12 12 12 14 18 24 37 54 84 ## ## ## ## ## ## 93 ## 83 22 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 10 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 17 22 34 50 77 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 93 60 58 54 29 24 11 7 -0 -3 -0 -3 -5 -7 -5 13 12 13 12 13 13 13 13 16 20 27 42 60 88 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 85 ## 98 79 78 69 53 42 44 25 15 11 3 0 -1 1 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 20 25 32 47 62 89 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 75 54 34 26 27 20 19 14 12 13 18 6 4 6 21 20 18 16 15 15 14 14 16 20 27 40 57 84 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 88 26 7 3 -1 -5 -6 -5 -6 -5 -8 -6 -1 -0 -4 -6 -3 9 10 12 16 17 17 16 19 22 25 32 42 60 89 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 91 94 80 66 65 72 74 47 44 30 22 22 21 25 26 26 20 20 21 20 19 19 19 20 22 27 36 54 76 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 86 67 98 93 64 49 44 33 16 11 7 11 23 22 20 22 22 22 22 23 24 29 35 55 82 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 74 74 70 59 47 34 30 27 28 34 32 32 32 30 30 29 29 29 36 46 68 89 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 96 80 66 51 55 47 31 23 22 28 24 23 18 18 26 26 26 25 25 24 23 25 27 35 48 74 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 77 63 49 44 41 38 48 40 32 34 25 26 25 26 25 24 21 21 21 22 21 23 34 39 58 75 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 64 31 27 17 13 20 28 29 20 26 12 11 3 1 -0 2 20 20 19 18 19 20 20 22 26 31 37 60 94 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 89 54 32 16 -1 -7 -7 5 -0 -3 -1 -2 -2 1 1 -1 1 17 16 18 19 19 17 19 21 20 22 33 50 78 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 90 67 39 43 29 10 26 25 14 10 1 -4 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 12 12 11 12 13 13 14 16 20 24 31 47 73 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 75 46 27 18 2 -3 -2 -5 -2 -6 -8 -4 -9 -4 -5 1 16 15 15 13 13 14 14 14 16 20 26 39 55 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 52 54 39 26 17 19 12 6 1 2 8 13 8 2 9 18 17 18 16 16 17 18 19 21 24 34 51 78 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 79 73 59 42 36 33 18 21 15 20 12 14 15 12 2 6 5 5 20 21 23 21 22 22 23 25 28 33 43 62 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 79 63 76 71 51 44 37 35 27 19 12 12 23 20 21 19 16 19 18 20 21 25 31 42 61 85 ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## ## 97 42 24 8 2 0 7 5 4 -1 -1 6 -1 -2 -3 Oct 41 42 2 3 3 16 15 27 3 18 4 25 1 14 -6 9 0 15 -0 13 ## 2 -7 7 -1 14 4 19 -4 12 19 31 9 23 25 35 20 30 22 34 1 16 -2 11 -4 10 1 14 4 16 2 16 12 26 43 4 15 26 17 22 13 10 14 11 2 8 14 17 11 27 21 34 28 31 16 9 8 13 14 15 23 44 5 23 33 25 28 22 21 23 19 12 17 22 26 21 33 31 40 36 39 27 19 17 22 24 26 32 45 6 22 32 24 25 21 20 22 18 11 17 22 25 19 30 30 38 35 36 25 18 16 21 23 25 30 Nov 46 47 7 8 22 21 30 27 23 21 23 21 20 19 20 20 21 20 17 16 10 10 16 15 20 18 22 21 18 17 27 25 27 26 36 34 32 31 32 30 21 19 18 18 16 16 18 18 22 21 22 21 28 26 48 9 20 27 21 20 18 19 18 15 10 15 17 21 16 25 25 34 31 29 19 17 15 17 21 20 25 49 10 18 25 20 19 18 20 18 16 9 14 17 21 15 23 24 33 29 28 18 16 15 16 21 20 23 Dec 50 51 11 12 18 18 24 23 19 18 20 19 18 17 18 18 18 17 15 15 9 9 15 15 15 15 21 20 15 13 22 22 23 21 33 32 26 26 27 25 16 20 17 17 14 13 19 15 19 20 19 20 22 20 52 13 17 22 17 18 18 17 18 15 10 14 15 21 10 19 23 33 26 24 19 17 12 15 19 21 22