CARBON DIOXIDE A Potential Emerging Global. Hazard Prepared by: J.F. Coates, Inc. For Edison Electric Institute January 1984 EDISON ELecmrq The assocmtuon ec ? 1!9m Slraei 00000 Inc companies EARBON DIOXIDE: POTENTIAL EMERGING GLOBAL HAZARD 3am 62C Jennifer :larratt i 72 J37 Joseph F. Coates UNIVERSITY LIBRARIES BLOOMINGTON DECEMBER 28, 1983 WASHINGTON. DC 20015 CARBON DIOXIDE: POTENTIAL EMERGING GLOBAL HAZARD Jennifer Jarratt Joseph F. Coates DECEMBER ?28, 1983 PREFACE Which is the carbon dioxide situation, a potential global disaster, a scientific false alarm or a great global opportunity? Since 1978, the U.S. government has spent $l00 million on scientific studies in the hope of finding an answer. As long as money continues to be available, the answer may well be that there are important problems to be investigated, because the scientifi- cally credible concern has spawned much useful work on climate models, for example. The issue has been building for nearly two decades. Introduced and investigated primarily by scientists and eventually alluded to in the popular press, it has even been the subject of Congressional hearings, front page news in the New York Times and on the date of this report the subject of a national television series. A distinguished scientist testified in 1982 that he saw a "truly Darwinian struggle for resources" impending as a result of climate changes caused in the future by increasing atmospheric car- bon dioxide. A listening legislator, seeing little room for maneu- ver on the issue, commented that it was difficult to believe a real problem was facing the world, dramatic climate changes over a single lifetime defied commonsense and, if it were true, it was probably futile to think we could adapt quickly enough. 0n the other hand, it is argued that humans can adapt readily to changes in temperature, that climate change will bring benefits as well as difficulties and that there is much that can be planned and discussed today to take advantage of the relatively long lead- time before any detrimental effects set in. Fulfilling its policy mission, the Environmental Program of the Edison Electric Institute sponsored this stock-taking study of the carbon dioxide question. The study was undertaken with the assumption that with an early start on this question there are positive anticipatory or damage limiting strategies for engaging this new issue, and that the implementation of such strategies could be beneficial to all of human kind. It was thought that relatively little attention had been given to the economic and social benefits of, or opportunies associated with, alternative strategies for coping with the effect of a climate changing increase in carbon dioxide, as, for example, agricultural planning, forestry adaptation, land use and water resource plan- ning and the stimulation of innovation in all areas affected by climate change. It was found in this first look that these wider concerns are just beginning to emerge and represent a new stage in a more adap- tive response to the issue. The benefits of the free rein given to us by our sponsors Robert Beck and Jerry Edgley of the Edison Electric Institute?s envi- ronmental programs we hope will be reflected as strongly in this report as it is in our appreciation. At J. F. Coates, Inc., the preparation of this report was the responSibility of Beverly Goldberg with the assistance of Flora Riemer, Bernice Mann and Diana Clark. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Preface Summary Carbon Dioxide in the Media I. Introduction II. A New Consensus Emerges Energy Growth and Its Importance in the Carbon Dioxide Debate IV. Effects on Global Climate V. What's Going On In Carbon Dioxide Research VI. Conclusion Abbreviations References Glossary of Energy Units EXHIBITS l. Timeline of Carbon Dioxide Events, Major Reports, Forecasts l800-2085 2. Diagram of the Climatic System 3. Effects of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil and Organic Fuel Sources 4. Diagram of the Carbon Dioxide Research Community 5. Forthcoming and Proposed Meetings on the Carbon Dioxide Question and related issues an.? e. - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Carbon dioxide is assumed to act as a blanket, retaining some of the sun's warmth that would otherwise be radiated into space. A higher concentration of that gas in the atmosphere is associated with a higher average temperature at the earth's surface. A stock- taking of the knowledge about the carbon dioxide question revealed the following points about the increase in carbon dioxide levels, the implications of that increase, and actions for dealing with the increasing carbon dioxide levels: Increasing Carbon Dioxide Levels Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have undeniably in- creased since they began to be measured regularly in l958. It is now believed they have been increasing since the be- ginning of the industrial revolution largely due to the burning of fossil fuels. Clearing of land for farming, cutting and clearing of forests made substantial contribu- tions in the past. Future releases of carbon dioxide from changes in the use of land are likely to be insignificant compared to fossil fuel combustion. The date when a doubling of the pre-industrial concentra- tion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will occur is fre- quently used as a convenient estimate of the time when changes in climate will become noticeable and significant. Progress towards doubling has been slowed, largely by changes in global energy growth. Doubling is still seen as inevitable, but not until about 2070-2085. Estimates of a doubling time depend on a number of uncer- tainties in connection with the future rate of fossil fuel combustion, the role of the ocean in absorbing carbon diox- ide and the potential effects of a number of trace gases in the atmosphere. Research is beginning to show that trace gases, by?products of industrial production and high alti- tude aviation are also greenhouse gases, producing effects in much lower concentrations than carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide emissions will not grow as fast as had been expected until the next century, when the world may be forced to rely more on coal and synfuels for a greater share of its energy supply. The production of carbon diox- ide is nearly a linear function of global population and at least a linear function of the average level of econo- mic prosperity. Implications of Increasing Carbon Dioxide Levels The debate over potential implications of increasing carbon dioxide concentration in the earth?s atmosphere has entered a more conservative phase in which earlier assertions are toned down. An important anticipated change will be an increase in glo- bal surface temperature. The several current estimates of warming over the next 100 years range from a conservative one to two degrees Celsius to a more drastic change of up to five degrees by the year 2l00. Scientists have not reliably detected that a warming of the earth's surface has already occurred. A warmer and dryer summer climate in the midwestern U.S. has been suggested as a probable effect of the global warming trend. Changes in rainfall and a potential for rising sea levels are recognized as other important components of any carbon dioxide?induced climate change. Over the next years a sea level rise of 70 cm (about 2 feet) could be expected as a result of the expansion of warming water and some melt- ing of the antarctic, arctic and alpine glaciers. A much greater sea level rise, perhaps l2 feet, could re- sult from a breakup of the West Antarctic icesheet over the next 300-500 years. From simple extrapolation of current trends, scientists have moved to more complex models of climate interaction, global energy demand, and the world carbon cycle. Many uncertainties remain. But the increasing sophistication has widened the range and pace of analysis and has begun to present some alternatives to climatic disaster. Dealing With Increasi?g Carbon Dioxide Levels Carbon dioxide represents a global issue which no country alone can solve. The knowledge base is improving; with new information, the issue becomes progressively less alarm- ing. To this point, scientists have defined the issue policy questions and indirect consequences of a warmer atmosphere have barely been considered. The potential effects of taxing or banning the use of fossil fuels have been explored. Unless the taxes are worldwide, the onset of any temperature change would not be delayed by more than five or ten years. Controlling carbon dioxide emissions by scrubbing stack gas, while technically possible, is not economically feasible. The control of emissions by collecting gas from the stack is not a solution to the global build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. New strategies, new ideas for solution, for adaptation and change are sure to be called for. They are likely to re- semble what should be done anyway to make agriculture and other systems more flexible and resilient. For example, agricultural scientists have reported the U.S. capable of adaptation to moderate temperature increase and changes in rainfall patterns. Adaptation rather than prevention stands out as the most fruitful way of looking at the issue. Including climate as a dynamic factor in all long-range planning may be the most positive way of approaching the needs for innovation and adaptation by public and private organizations in connec- tion with the forests, industry, agriculture, land use planning, civil engineering, facilities siting and most other activities. .7 . ML CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE MEDIA - TWO FUTURE NENSCLIPS Before jumping into a systematic treatment of the potentiai for carbon dioxide becoming a giobai hazard Tet us move some years ahead and see what couid happen. IMAGINE THE FRONT PAGE OF A MIDNESTERN FARM JOURNAL IN 1997 AFTER TEN YEARS OF DROUGHT IN THE CORN COUNTRY OR IN ANOTHER VISION OF THE FUTURE, SCAN THE SAME JOURNAL AND COME ACROSS A BACK PAGE REFERENCE TO AN ISSUE YOU REMEMBER AS HAVING BEEN IMPORTANT, BACK IN THE EIGHTIES THE IOWA CORN JOURNALr-September 19, 1997--p.1. NO END SEEN T0 DROUGHT U.S. Corn Belt hard hit, Canada enjoys _recreation boom Blame the "greenhouse effect" for ten years of drought in the corn belt, weather expert John Barley told an Iowa state fair audience, Thurs- day. Barley spoke to 300 members of the farmers and homeowners group, Save Our Corn From Cee 0h Two (SOCCOZ), fighting for U.S. irrigation relief funding. He saw no hope for more rain and a return to good growing conditions of the 1950's to 1970's. "It's going to be real dry here from now on and you are all going to get a lot warmer," Barley promised. If they thought conditions were bad, they should visit Africa, as he had. Asked why Canada was having such good weather and plenty of rain, Barley said some parts of the world were benefiting from the greenhouse effect. Canada has had its best summer in years, he said. "Tourism and recrea- tion are booming up there." "That's not our problem," shouted a voice from the crowd when Barley told the group they should be worried about the danger of floods along the U.S. coast. The greenhouse effect was warming the ocean and melting sea ice bringing fears of gradually rising sea levels. The group demanded to know why the U.S. government had not acted to protect its cornbelt. Barley said scientists in the 1980's believed the greenhouse effect would not be a problem in the next 100 years. "We didn't know then the effect all the other waste gases would have in speed- ing things up and we were taken by surprise when everyone started using coal after the Middle East oil crisis in 1985-6.? For a full THE IONA CORN ber 19, 1997, p. 25. GREENHOUSE EFFECT--THE NO-SHOW DISASTER Predictions of a Warmer Earth Unfounded A group of scientists who say the famed "greenhouse effect" predicted in the 1980's was just a scare story, have challenged climate experts to produce evidence that the earth is warmer or admit they were wrong. "After almost 40 years of looking for it, we should be shown some evi- dence that the greenhouse effect really exists," John Barley, leader of Scientists for Public Policy, claimed Thursday. "The truth is that the greenhouse effect was a good theory that just happened to be wrong. In the 1980's, we didn't know enough about how the carbon cycling worked. We don't know now and we should say so.? Urged to respond to Barley's flung glove, a Federal government climate expert who refused to be named countered, "Barley doesn?t know what he is talk- ing about. The greenhouse effect is there alright, but it is happening more slowly than we thought and we have not felt it yet. After all, who would have allowed for the fact that by the end of the century almost every? one will be using rooftop power cells, or for the world agreement on limit- ing use of certain gases." He went on to say that changes, if there were any, were likely to be benign. The ocean . These two newsclips, page 1 and page 25 of the Iowa Corn Journal in 1997, illustrate how the media's reporting might de- velop in a worst and a best case. Page one reflects a situation similar to the worst case described in the EPA's recent report, Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?, in which the greenhouse effects of trace gases multiply those of carbon dioxide, speeding up climate change. An oil crisis has forced us to burn more coal; sea level appears to be rising faster than expected; there are threats of flooding; the loss of crops for several hot dry summers has fanned public alarm and brought fears of climate catastrophe. Even in the worst case, however, somebody benefits. Canada gains a warmer, more pleasant climate and brings in thousands of tourists. 0r nothing drastic happens -- the issue fizzles. Again it is assumed major changes could occur in less than 25 years and solar energy could in that time take a huge bite out carbon dioxide emissions worldwide. There is a possibility that by the end of the century emissions of trace gases might not be as great as they are now, but the likelihood of a worldwide agreement limiting them is doubtful. If first certain detection of global warming has not occurred by 1997, and few, if any, climate effects can be traced to carbon dioxide, the issue may yet be swept off the public agenda. The most probable developments, the most likely cases, lie somewhere in the middle. The amount of carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere after a fraction has been absorbed by oceans and vegetation is accumulating year by year in gigatons. A gigaton is a thousand million tons. Reliable time-period detection of a warming trend is expected between now and 2000. Some climate changes are probable by then, although perhaps only minor ones. In this report the shape of the current debate on carbon dioxide is outlined, and the emerging issues discussed, including the conclusions of a global energy model. I. INTRODUCTION By 1997 the carbon dioxide issue cou1d be up front on page one as it was in 1983 in the New York Times when the Environmenta1 Protection Agency's report, Can We De1ay A Greenhouse Warming} (1) was 1eaked to the press. Or it cou1d be downp1ayed at the bottom of page 25 - depending how the many uncertainties surrounding the issue eventua11y sort out. The picture being drawn today, by the scientific community, the EPA report notwithstanding is a more cautious, conservative1y sketched and 1ess a1arming one than a few years ago when increa- sing carbon dioxide was expected to have an ear1y and disastrous effect on c1imate. The know1edge base on the issue has expanded considerab1y as the assessment pub1ished in 1983 by the Nationa1 Academy of Sciences (2 shows a rapid1y increasing rate of carbon dioxide emissions from fossi1 fue1s has s1owed as g1oba1 energy demand s1acked off. New understanding of the dynamic ro1e of the ocean in absorbing airborne carbon dioxide adds to our know1edge of ocean atmosphere interactions. The (1983) NAS report, Changing C1imate, wrote of caution, not panic and ca11ed for more research, carefu1 monitoring, and periodic assessments. The EPA report ca11ed for a nationa1 po1icy of adaptation to a changing c1imate. A1though the EPA authors drew conc1usions much the same as those of the NAS report, their intent was to spur action on po1icy and to p1ay a 1arger ro1e in the mak? ing of it. Front page coverage of EPA's conc1usions in the New York Times a few days before the NAS report was due created a f1urry of anxiety. The government's 1ead agency on carbon dioxide, the Department of Energy, reviewed its po1icy and decided major ana1ysis of societa1 impacts was premature. Research was more important. The conc1usions and recommendations of the NAS wi11 prevai1 at 1east for a time. Because the media paid attention to the EPA's dramatic entry into the carbon dioxide debate, however, the idea of climate change and the useful concept of adapting to it will percolate in the public's mind. Electrical utility industries have been racked by steady rounds of surprises and pain associated with public concerns and governmental regulations over environmental is- sues. Particulate emissions, and SOX gas emissions, and now acid rain, not to mention the mare's nest of controversy over nuc- lear power, have repeatedly caught the industry off guard. To its credit, industry is increasingly aware of the need to anticipate problems and the value of a proactive, positive approach to the management of environmental issues. The steady accumulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere seemed to be a likely candidate for becoming a major environmental issue affecting the electric utility industry. Scientific and technological evidence is steadily growing that the phenomenon is real. The time is ripe, therefore, for the industry, particularly its principal association, the Edison Electric Institute, to look to the future to determine whether there are positive anticipatory strategies to be followed in engaging this new concern. This re- port covers an independent evaluation of the status of the issue and its implications for the industry. A section on effects of a global warming trend describes the range of potential effects on temperature, oceans, plant life, and human health. A diagram of the potential spread of effects is in- cluded. A reconnaissance of the agencies and scientific organizations carrying out carbon dioxide research, primarily in the U.S., was done and the results included in a section on what is going on in the field. A list of upcoming national and international meetings is part of this section. . The global nature of the issue, the limitations of control strategies and the adaptation opportunity are emphasized in the conclusion. -10- The amount written, scientific and otherwise, on the carbon dioxide issue is prodigious. William C. Clark, of the Institute for Energy Analysis at Oak Ridge, who contributed his own mite by editing the 469 pages of the Carbon Dioxide Review: l982, estimates that about 50,000 pages a year are being generated. Casual references to the greenhouse effect and the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as accepted facts occur rou- tinely in newspapers and magazines. This report was prepared from information drawn from many sources: a Major reports on carbon dioxide and the atmosphere, such as the National Academy of Sciences report, Changing Climate; Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? by the Strategic Studies Staff of the Office of Policy Analysis, the Environmental Protection Agency; and the Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, edi- ted by William C. Clark. 0 A literature search emphasizing recent publications and publications discussing potential impacts and strategies for solutions, adaptation, and mitigation. This was carried out with the help of the Carbon Dioxide Information Center at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Interviews with members of the scientific community active on carbon dioxide. What Follows Chapter II summarizes the latest findings of the scientific community on carbon dioxide trends; Chapter discusses the re- lationship between carbon dioxide emissions and future energy needs; Chapter IV outlines potential global and regional effects of an at- mospheric carbon dioxide increase; Chapter describes the structure of carbon dioxide research in terms of which governmental agencies are involved and Chapter VI concludes the report. -11- EXHIBIT 1 TIMELINE OF CARBON DIOXIDE EVENTS, MAJOR REPORTS, FORECASTS 1800 - 2085 C02 est. at 290 1800 1899 Chamberlain Independently propose the . possibility of C0 -induced 1903 Arrhenius climate change 2 1938 Callender estimated carbon dioxide had 315 380 002 est. at 600 ppm, double the level of pre-industrial globe 1958 1977 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1'9'85 1990 2025 2050 2060 2070- 2085 increased 10%, based on crude data Continuous monitoring of levels begun NAS, Revelle report, Energy Climate NAS, Charney report, Carbon Dioxide Climate, "incontrovertible evidence of atmospheric change" JASON report predicts high future release of carbon dioxide Energy Security Act passes, NAS study funded by OSTP, NSF, DOE Research agenda set in Revelle's report, Environmental Societal Consequences CEQ, Speth report, Global Energy Futures the Carbon Dioxide Problem, ?the ultimate environmental dilemma" NAS interim report, Carbon Dioxide Climate IEA, Carbon Dioxide Review, "emerging consensus" NAS report, Changing Climate, a major reassessment EPA report, Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? DOE, major reports on CO2 research First detection of carbon dioxide warming trend possible Doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in atmosphere occurs (forecast of Gordon McDonald for MITRE, 1978; IIASA workshop, 1978) Doubling occurs (CEQ forecast, 1981) Doubling occurs (EPA forecast, 1983) Doubling occurs (1982, 1983 forecasts, Carbon Dioxide Review, IEA, NAS) ii. A NEW CONSENSUS EMERGES First Detection?-- a turning point In March, 1982. James Hansen of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Goddard Space Flight Center, testified be- fore a Congressional Subcommittee hearing on carbon dioxide and climate that the global temperature has increased 0.4 degrees since 1880. (3) In May, l982, James Hansen was one of the scientists taking part in a workshop on first detection sponsored by the U.S. Depart- ment of Energy. Despite Hansen's previous assertion, Michael McCracken of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory concluded in his summary of the 546 page report of the workshop that although the climate should be warmer by several tenths of a degree, this warming had not yet been reliably detected. (4) Noise, i.e. false signals and background created by normal vari- ations in climate, hinders the detection of a carbon dioxide in- duced warming. It is confidently expected that at some point per- haps five, ten or 20 years in the future, the clear signal of a carbon dioxide warming will rise above the noise. What constitutes that noise, and other factors affecting climate such as thermal in- ertia of the oceans, volcanoes, dust, and variations in solar radia- tion, make up the uncertainties preoccupying the scientists re- searching first detection. Early detection of a warming trend is considered important to developing public understanding of the relationship between carbon dioxide and climate, as well as confirming that changes are actually occurring. There is an unspoken assumption in the scientific com- munity that unless the public is presented with proof, no action can be taken. Further, some scientists warn that if first detec? tion of warming lags the actual trend by many more years we will have lost valuable time to prepare for change. the uieanhouse tfiatt . disturbing the natural balance hn intiexse ni tuthH in lha ealih's atmosphere er~ ails whai ls netted a greenhouse affeti. analogy is good but uni entirely A oreanhnnae betnmes warm because ihe alas: aiinwe the warming rays of snniiuhl to enter but pre- vents the wximed all and waier vapor from escaping. An increasing tnntenlraiinn of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere acts as a blanket. disinihinu the radiallnn balance of the earth. lheimel equilibrium at the earth's surface is reached by an esthanue between Incumlno radiation from the sun and radiation re- fieilad bath from the earth. Mediation reflected back from the earth is partly absorbed by oases such as carbon dioxide. by clouds and hy some dust particles. it is generally believed an increaee in the nf tarhon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead even- tually to a warming of the earth's surface temperature and thus to a long-term change In climate. lhle snmmarlaea a complex process briefly. be said that the earth's atmosphere may be expected to respond more quickly to increases in the concentration of carbon dioxide than The oceans. and the snow in general, it may may other parts of the climatic system. and ice masses. may be expected to respond more slowly. and the rock. soil and sediments of the earth more slowly still. Effects on the plant. animal and human life of the earth may be expected to occur as a result of changes in climate. Changes in climate and its effects on plant and animal life. as well as on life in the oceans may induce complex changes in the water cycles of the earth. in rainfall. evaporation. cloudiness. and circulation of the oceans. the. Many aspects of the carbon dioxide issue are hotly debated but it is agreed that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide -14- have increased since regular measurement began in l958. Graphs drawn from analysis of sampling at Mauna Loa plot a steeply rising curve from 3l5 parts per million by volume (ppm) in l958, through the oscillations of the seasons, to 338 in l980. Carbon diox- ide concentrations in the early l9th century were estimated in the range of 285-305 ppm, although lower estimates have been made. The Carbon Cycle -- overbalancing the budget Carbon is stored and released in endless transfer between air, water, plants and earth, forming the global carbon cycle. Until studies of the climate in ancient eras revealed that this was not the case it was assumed carbon dioxide was a constant in the atmosphere over the long term with seasonal variations each year as vegetation grew and died. Man was the overbalancer of the carbon budget, releasing gigatons of carbon to the atmosphere by clearing and burning forests and burning fossil sediments for fuel. Studies of core samples of polar ice, for example, have begun to draw a different picture, one in which carbon dioxide concentra- tions in the atmosphere fluctuated with or occurred before great swings in world climate over thousands of years. During the last glacial period about l8,000 years ago carbon dioxide levels were only two thirds that estimated for the pre-industrial atmosphere of the l9th century. When the climate went through a warm phase about 6,000 years ago, carbon dioxide climbed to levels above those of today. (6) 0f the two major additions to the carbon budget contributed by man -- land use changes and fossil fuel combustion -- the second is now considered by far the more important. The clearing of land to support farming in the late l9th cen- tury is believed to have sent a surge of carbon dioxide into the How much carbon dioxide will be released from land atmosphere. One group of resear- clearing now and in the future is disputed. chers believes forest clearing, especially in the tropics, is and -15- will be a substantial source driven by population growth until the world's forests disappear in the early let century. (7) Forests and vegetation have powerful effects on the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide, this group argues, which are shown in the fluctuations caused by seasonal growth and decay. Further, plants can fix more carbon dioxide than is now available to them. given enough sun, water and nutrients. The potential exists for adjusting the atmosphere by global plant and forest management. Other researchers consider this point of view overstated. Any source of atmospheric carbon dioxide from forest clearing, no matter how large, will soon be submerged in the greater volume of release from fossil fuels. Atmospheric management by reforesta- tion is considered impractical. Recent discussions of the global carbon cycle noted that in earlier epochs the earth's climate has changed slowly and at other times moved quickly to different stable levels of carbon dioxide. In the case of a sudden jump to a new level -- over a few hundred years vegetation would adapt itself to the new growing condi- tions with or without man's intervention. The Doubling Date Early studies of the carbon dioxide issue set as an arbitrary benchmark at date when carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmos? phere would be double those of the estimates for the pre-industrial times. These studies estimated an atmospheric concentration of 600 would be reached by about 2025, or earlier, in some cases. More recent studies have pushed the doubling date ahead to 2070 or 2085. (2) In the absence of a reliably detected warming trend, the doub- ling date, and when it might occur, has become a useful way of talking about when carbon dioxide climate changes might be expec- ted to begin. In truth, climate changes could occur well before doubling, or long after. The date of actual doubling may be no more than a convenient focal point for discussion. -16.. 0 Earlier studies assumed a much greater growth in the world's future demands for energy than is now assumed to be probable. The growth rate of carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning averaged more than 4.5% a year from 1950 to l973. The rate has dropped since then to less than 2.5% a year. Energy forecasts for the next 30 to 50 years now tend to assume a growth rate of about 2% a year, at most 3% and at least 0 An emerging consensus among scientists estimates the temper- ature increase caused by doubled carbon dioxide levels at 2 - 3 degrees Celsius. Braked by the thermal inertia of the oceans, this increase may lag the doubling date by several decades. Prospects are for slow, gradual warming of about 0.1 degrees Celsuis each decade until 2000 and not more than half a degree each decade thereafter. (8) The airborne fraction, that amount of carbon dioxide not readily taken up by the oceans or by vegetation, was earlier assumed to be about half (0.5 - 0.6) of the total emitted. It is now suggested the airborne fraction may be less than half, more like 0.4. This amount and the accuracy of the estimates could change over time in ways involving the com- plexities of the global exchange of carbon. A smaller air- borne fraction would lengthen the time before doubling occurs. (9) This is a more conservative perspective on the issue than ear- ly proponents of dire climate effects from man's fossil fuel burn- ing and forest clearing would have thought acceptable. The new knowledge implies a general cooling down of the debate. At the same time as the greenhouse effect comes to seem some- what more benign, more gradual and less immediately threatening, new research begins to suggest other important determinants of climate changes, trace gases, for example. Ramanathan in l980 con? cluded that trace gases arising from the use of fossil fuels, the use of fertilizers, emission of refrigerants and propellants might contribute as much as 40% of the total surface warming by 2025 due to the blanketing effect of these gases and of carbon dioxide. (l0) If trace gases figure into the picture as strongly as the authors of Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming? suggest, the possi- bility exists for a global warming of 3-4 degrees over the next l00 years and a sea level rise of about 70 cm (2 feet or more). (1) -17- ENERGY GROWTH AND ITS IMPORTANCE IN THE CARBON DIOXIDE DEBATE A key feature of the carbon dioxide debate is the increasing sophistication of the energy portion of the discussion. Four important questions to be answered are: How big is the remaining store of fossil fuel on earth? How rapidly will this store be used? 3. What are the probable patterns of use -- rapid exploita- tion, conservation, introduction of alternative fuels? 4. Can our use of fossil fuel be managed in some way so as to delay, limit or prevent the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere? Some early studies of carbon dioxide related climate change used currently accepted estimates as simple answers to the first two questions, assumed a fixed pattern of use and ignored question Their intention was presumably to draw attention to the po- These 1. 2. four. tential for climate change and in this they succeeded. studies produced some of the highest projections of carbon dioxide emissions. A section of the NAS report, Changing Climate, was devoted to reviewing forecasts of future carbon dioxide emissions and to es- tablishing more solid ground for projecting global energy use into the next century. (l2) The authors, Jesse H. Ausubel and William Nordhaus, concluded that the initial assumption about question one was too high in some of the early studies and the estimate of ener- gy growth at 4.5 percent/year was no longer valid as prospects for demand continued to decline. In the more complex, and recent, energy models, including Nordhaus' own work for the NAS report, market forces and varying energy mixes are brought into play. The estimates of energy growth and future levels of emission tend to be substantially lower. It becomes much less likely to assume we would, or could afford to use the entire pool of fossil fuel down to the last piece of coal before introducing alternative forms of energy. However the -13- 9101331 energy model of the Institute for Energy Analysis at Oak Ridge Associated Universities which is one of the most widely used and respected models does assume that in the next century the use of shale and produced fossil fuels will become eco- nomically and technically possible and be introduced as a means of extending the life of the fossil fuel system, thus accelerating the pace of carbon dioxide emissions, at least in the developed countries. The other major factor increasing fossil fuel combus- tion is rising world population. The amount of fossil fuel the rest of the world will use de? pends on price and the control of supply exercised by the devel- oped nations. In their exploration of policy options which might delay or prevent the build-up of carbon dioxide, the IEA modelers discovered that taxing fossil fuels in the U.S., or in developed countries alone, would lower energy prices to the rest of the world and raise the global level of emissions. A ban on the use and export of coal by the U.S. would have some effect because the U.S. holds one of the world's major coal reserves. A global ban on the use of coal would be more effective; however, the world's other large coal resources are in the U.S.S.R. and China. Even large scale near-global action of this kind involving international agreements on taxation and bans of fossil fuels would not delay the date of carbon dioxide doubling by many years because of the inexorable pressure exerted by growing population. In the coming years, U.S. responsibility for the lion's share of fossil fuel derived carbon dioxide emissions will dwindle as its energy system becomes more efficient, less reliant on fossil fuel -- and because the rest of the world's share will be larger. It is worth noting that the authors of the EPA report, Can we Delay a Greenhouse Warmingg, using basically the same global energy model indeed it is the only available global model which attempts to predict future emissions of carbon dioxide -- came up with a dif- ferent conclusion that bans and taxation would have little effect -19- because of the contribution of trace gases to the greenhouse effect. A worldwide ban on coal by the year 2000 would delay a 2 change in global temperature by only ten years. The EPA re- port's best guess forecasts a global warming of 2 degrees by about 2040, a doubling of carbon dioxide levels by 2060 and a warming trend approaching 5 degrees by 2100. In Changing Climate, the NAS estimates a warming of between l.5 and 4.5 degrees by about 2050. with a best guess in the lower part of the range. If trace gases increased the greenhouse effect the warming trend would occur ear- lier. An observed slump in the demand for energy, and the views of such "soft path" advocates as Lovins (ll) have influenced energy forecasters by making them more cautious of extrapolating any one trend far into the future. However the views of Lovins on an ear- ly transition to renewable forms of energy and of the future as a conserving, low energy society are regarded by the authors of Changing Climate's energy chapters as "wishful." (l2) Nevertheless the potential for innovation, more conservation, greater efficiency, higher costs and a developing mix of energy resources including everything from re-engineered nuclear power to photovoltaics are nowadays stirred into the energy forecasting pot. To some extent, energy forecasts can be said to have tempo- rarily solved the carbon dioxide problem by nudging the doubling time into the latter part of the next century. Using modeling to develop the earlier work of Rotty (l3) at Oak Ridge, the IEA prepared their global energy and carbon diox- ide forecasts for the Department of Energy's carbon dioxide re- search program. The interpretation of global energy futures assumes improve- ment of the current energy system, a demand per capita not very different from today's -- although with a larger population base and conventional sources of power, including nuclear, dominat? ing. (14) -20.. The key elements of IEA's model include the following: (15) l. Carbon dioxide emissions will be less than previously expected until about 2025. A shifting energy mix is expected to produce slow growth of carbon dioxide emission rates until 2000. This represents the maximum development of hydroelectric power, use of nuclear generating capacity and continued use of oil and gas, fuels which emit less carbon diox? ide than coal. The rate of carbon dioxide emissions will increase rapidly after 2025. More use of coal and shale after the year 2000 could increase carbon dioxide emissions dramatically by the year 2050. Coal will by then provide 62% of all fossil energy. By this time gas is producing only 9% and oil 29%. The development of technologies to mine shale and process synfuels will add significantly to carbon dioxide emissions, and along with more use of coal, account for an increase in emissions. This assumes the mining of shale and processing of synfuels will be the technologies next in line to become economically and technically feasible, thus making them available to be moved into the energy system. 3. In the next century the responsibility for the largest share of carbon dioxide emissions will shift from the U.S. and Europe to less developed countries. During this period, the developed world, with its greater efficiency and more sophisticated mix of energy sources, will reduce its contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from more than two-thirds to over one-half. 4. A severe cutback of fossil fuel use in the U.S. would lower world energy prices and increase the relative car- bon dioxide emissions from less developed countries. 5. Action by the U.S. alone, to reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide emissions, will not alter the_pace of increas- ing global concentrations substantially. The U.S. is a major source of world coal supply. Banning coal exports from the U.S. did tend to reduce coal available to the rest of the world and thus cut back the release of carbon dioxide. However, even when a severe U.S. tax on emissions was assumed as well, the estimated date of doubling of carbon dioxide concentra- tions was moved ahead by less than five years. 6. A global tax on carbon dioxide emissions would_push the doubling window less than ten years beyond current esti- mates. The IEA modelers concluded that they were dealing with a global problem, one which no one nation, even one making as large a contribution as the U.S., could signi- ficantly affect by acting alone. Given current politi- cal realities, they did not believe a worldwide ban on coal use was realistic or possible. However, they ran the idea through their model and were chagrined to dis- cover that even a global tax on carbon dioxide emissions gained the world less than ten years over their earliest estimate of a doubling date. The IEA assumed energy consumption will grow at 2.5% each year until 2000, increase to 2.6% over the next 25 years and fall to 2.4% by 2050. An estimate of 6 gigatons per year of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 is the low end of a 6-45 GT range forecast. It was based on -22- optimism about the introduction and development of non-carbon diox- ide producing fuel sources, such as nuclear fusion, solar and re- lated technologies, including relatively cheap power obtained from photovoltaics, and pessimism on economic growth. An optimistic view of oil shale and synfuels, expecting them to be commercially viable by 2025, produced the high end of the forecast, 45 gigatons per year. In l98l fossil fuel combustion accounted for 5.3 giga- tons (5,300,000,000 tons). -23- IV. EFFECTS ON GLOBAL CLIMATE Accumulation of carbon dioxide can be expected to alter the composition of the atmosphere, affecting the climate of the earth in significant ways. Numerous Potential effects of a change in climate have been Suggested in the scientific literature. Studies of warmer climatic periods, millions of years ago, are providing useful comparisons and a basis for speculation on the nature of these effects. This chapter describes the generally accepted climatic effects suggested by present day scientific theory and observation. Exhibit 2, the world's climate system, shows the major areas of exchange, for example in the precipitation and evaporation of ocean water. Key areas where climate affecting changes may occur are shown, such as a change in atmosphere caused by waxing or waning of solar radia- tion, or a change in atmosphere composition caused by the addition of carbon dioxide. Exhibit 3 diagrams global and regional effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. Some effects would tend to neutralize each other at some new balance point, as for example, increases in both cloudiness and evaporation. Others, such as changes in ocean circulation and composition, would build and increase the potential for changes in wind patterns and currents. Increased global temperature would vary by latitude and hemi- sphere, leading to variation in the climatic changes expected in different areas of the globe. Vegetation would be stimulated worldwide by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. A small sea level rise could be predicted from an overall warming 01? the planet. The potential regional effects have been divided in Exhibit 3 by assumptions about the amount of temperature_change. Least change is expected in the tropics, therefore effects on crops and living conditions might be marginal. The greatest temperature change would be expected in northern latitudes, bringing the possibility of much greater regional effects. -24- Climate changes in the southern hemisphere may be fewer because of the cooling effect of larger ocean areas. Beyond these middle-range effects occurring over the next 50?100 years, the possibility exists, as depicted in Exhibit 3, of longer range changes coming as a result of a continued warming trend. These include a greater sea level rise and the loss of coastal cities and low-lying land. Temperature Changes An increase in global average temperature is associated with the date of carbon dioxide doubling. An estimate of temperature increase in the range of 2 - 3 degrees Celsius is proposed by the editors of the Carbon Dioxide Review: 198g_ and used here as representative of an emerging consensus.* The Review lists 34 estimates of probable global average surface air temperature changes made since 1956 on information from one, two and three dimen- sional climate model results.(8) The editors noted that the lower estimates were based on models that left out important features of climate interaction. Higher estimates are available but have not been entered into the debate by being published in the open scientific literature. The Review editors concluded that even if we burned all the fossil fuels we could recover from the earth we could probably not increase the global average temperature by more than six degrees. The temperature change may lag the doubling date because of thermal inertia in the oceans. *See page l9 for estimates made their 1983 reports. -25- EXHIBIT 2 DIAGRAM OF THE CLIMATIC SYSTEM changes of solar SPACE radiation 1 A ATMOSPHERE .O .CO .0 .ctc. 2 2 2 2 3 precipitation, dust particles evaporation air-ice coupling A heat exchange wind stress ICE changes of atmos- i?g?g atmosphere-ocean coupling OCEAN phzric composition A changes of land features. EARTH orogxaphy. vegetation. albedo, ctc. changes of ocean basin shape. salinity, clc. =9 internal processes external processes Source: 1. M. Smith, Carbon dioxide - emissions and effects, IEA Coal Research, London, 1982, p. i4. -25- EXHIBIT 3: EFFECTS (I: CARBON DIOXIDE FOSSIL AND (RCMIC FUEL SOJRCES 0 EFFECTS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS FROI FOSSIL 8 ORGANIC FUEL SOURCES IN THE I WARMING OF THE CHANGES IN OCEAN ERATURE 8 COMPOSITION INCREASE IN INCREASE IN WATER VAPOR CLOUDINESS SEA LEVEL RISE THERMAL EXPANSION AND GLACIAL MELT ABOUT 2 FEET GLOBAL VEGETATION STIMJLATED EFFE TS 0N BY INCREASED . OCEAN CLRRENTS ALBEDO . CIRCULATION 2 3 RISE EFFECTS WINDS GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CARBON DIOXIDE GREATEST TEMPERATURE INCREASE AT POLAR LATITUDES VODEST INCREASE IN AT NORTHERN LATITUDES LEAST TEMPERATIRE CHANGE AT I REGIONAL EFFECTS REGIONAL EFFECTS REGIONAL EFFECTS (NORTHERN LATITUDES) (TEMPERATE ZONE) (SUB-TROPICAL 3 TROPICAL) . LONGER GROWING SEASONS . LESS VARIABILITY . PURE RAINFALL . BELT MOVES NORTH TO LESS FERTILE SOIL . INCREASED PRODUCTION . INCREASED CROP OF SOME CROPS YIELDS (RICE) . FORESTRY PRODUCTION (LETTUCE, TOMATOES) I DECREASE PESTS PROL I FERATE . DECREASED CROP YIELDS (HHEAT, SOVBEANS) DECREASED CROP YIELDS (CORN, . COASTAL EROSION . EXPANSION OF TEMPERATE LIVING AREAS . LESS RAINFALL, POTEN- TIAL FOR DROUGHT CHANGES, . CHANGES IN WATER PATTERNS, RIVER FLOWS . RECREATION INDUSTRY BOOVI . DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, . COASTAL EROSION REGIONAL EFFECTS . REDUCTION OF FISH YIELDS HEMISPHERE) . PESTS TROPICAL DISEASES SPREAD . ASSLMED SIMILAR EFFECTS AS IN NORTHERN LATITUDES. ALLWING FOR COOL- ING EFFECT OF LARGER OCEAN AREA . DECREASE IN LABOR PROUJCTIVITY . I GRAT I ON I POTENTIAL FOR SEA LEVEL RISE BREAKUP OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET OO SOO YEARs) LOSS OF COASTAL . POTENTIAL FOR GLOBAL . FLORIDA CLIMATIC ARISES . BANGLADESH . LONDON REGIONAL EFFECTS GLOBAL EFFECTS GLOBAL EFFECTS YEARS -27- A higher global temperature could promote evaporation, enhanc? ing the greenhouse effect. Increasing cloudiness could increase planetary reflectivity'or alternatively damp down the greenhouse re? sponSE. As was pointed out by one scientist in conversation, globally averaged temperatures are interesting, "but nobody lives at the glo- bal mean." A three dimensional model build at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Labara- tony (GFDL) suggests that the increase in temperature at high alti- tudes will be two or three times that in the tropics. Results from the GFDL model imply the warming could be unbalanced, greater at the Arctic than at the Antarctic. The Arctic may develop warmer summers and much warmer winters (16). Sea Level Rise The potential breakup of the Nest Antarctic icefield has been raised as a dramatic and alarming possibility in some recent studies. There were visions of sudden sea level rise, drowning ports, beaches lost, river deltas and major cities flooded. Herman Flohn, of the University of Bonn, contributed a paper to the Carbon Dioxide Review on a threshold event, one which would trigger sudden changes. He asserted a rapid melting of arctic sea ice, if it occurred, would unbalance the global climate seriously, moving warm, dry, desert conditions north to the latitude of Washington, D.C. (6) Glaciologists find the disaster model of rapid shrinkage uncon- vincing, according to Professor Charles Bentley, of the University of Wisconsin. In a report for the published by the Department of Energy in April 1982, he recommended further research. (17) Exactly how much the sea level may be expected to rise and over what number of years is open to challenge. A slow warming and expan- sion of upper ocean waters added to water melting from glaciers in alpine regions and at the poles will add up to about 70 cm (about two feet) over the next 100 years, according to Revelle in Changing Climate, (l8) Bentley has estimated that the Nest Antarctic icesheet would not break UP and disintegrate Within 300 years, at a minimum. Reviewing his recent work, the NAS noted that this would mean a sea level rise of 2 meters/100 years beginning about 2050. On the positive side, melting glaciers and pack ice could bring an ice-free arctic at least part of the year, opening up the area for oil and gas exploration as well as other human activity. The Environmental Protection Agency's Strategic Studies staff sponsored a conference in 1983 on the potential for a sea level rise. Scenarios were developed indicating a sea level rise of as much as 370 centimeters or as little as 50 centimeters by 2100. A second round of sea level scenarios is being prepared at EPA and by NASA for presentation in early 1984. The first scenarios were based on an esti- mate of the thermal expansion to be expected and an analysis of the ways in which sea level has risen in past climatic changes as a re- sult of melting glaciers. Since this recent conference, the con- cept of at least a moderate rise in sea level has formed part of the discussion at EPA on strategies to adapt to climate change. (19) The NAS notes that the U.S. has not had to pay much attention to sea level variations. Adaptation to a change could bring new technolo- gies in dike and seawall protection as well as coastal planning that takes sea level into account as a dynamic rather than a static factor. It is worth noting that the Utility Data Institute database does not include elevation data for power plants, even those sited on the coast or on estuaries. Oceanic Alteration The oceans are a major sink for carbon dioxide. As a basis for discussion, it has been assumed that as they grow warmer at the sur- face, the oceans will gradually accept less carbon dioxide for mixing to the deep layers. Decreased wind patterns, circulation, and currents begin to paint a picture of an increasingly warm, semi-stagnant, saturated and sterile body of water, reduced in its capacity to act as a global climate regulator. Many of the oceans' functions as climate regulator and carbon sink are not well understood. The following are speculations on changes -29- which might occur: . A loss of ocean capacity to take up carbon dioxide from the air because of higher global sea surface temperatures; . Diminishing wind patterns affecting wind driven ocean currents as a consequence of higher global temperatures; 0 Decrease in ocean circulation resulting from an increase in temperature at polar latitudes; Decrease in nutrient supply with slowing of ocean circula- tion affecting plankton and fisheries; 0 An alternative suggestion, to the effect that nutrients might actually increase, promoting the growth of algae and increase albedo and cooling.(20) and Greenhouse Benefits An increase in carbon dioxide stimulates in plants and trees, proving sufficient light, water, and nutrients are avail? able. If this occurs globally, the process would tend to increase the amount of vegetation available to absorb carbon dioxide. Reforestation on a global scale has been suggested as a way of absorbing excess carbon dioxide. Though to be effective, every man, woman, and child on the planet would have to plant a tree a day for 1,000 years. (21) An increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide may prove beneficial to at least some food crops. Many studies have been done in greenhouse con- ditions, usually for commercial reasons, of the effects on crop yields of a carbon dioxide enhanced atmosphere. In these conditions, the toma- toes bear more heavily, roses bloom earlier and lettuce grows faster.(22) In the near term American agriculture will readily adapt to modes? temperature increases by ingenuity and the ability to shift major growing zones as well as by breeding adaptable species, according to the NAS report, Changing Climate. Irrigated farmlands may be more susceptible if climate changes alter soil moisture and rainfall as well as temperature. In other parts of the world where agriculture is more marginal and less flexible the effects may be more damaging. Current methods of plant breeding are sufficient to adapt plants to the changes expected in the next few years. Beyond lies the alternative of altering the genetic structure of a plant so that it is able to fix more carbon dioxide and use the available water more efficiently. -30- The threat of climate change may spur new work on the adaptation of piants and trees, "0t an important focus of agricultural research. other Water Consequences We Impacts on water will develop as a prime issue hiany climate change. Alterations in rainfall, in river flows, in coastal erosion, floods, drought, new needs for irrigation, should be considered in iong-range planning concerning water and its supply and storage. The Office of Strategic Studies of the Environmental Protection Agency is organizing a conference on the effects of carbon dioxide on forests and trees. They will invite representatives of the for- estry and wood products industries to meet in June, l984, to discuss how to adapt forestry to changed climate. Experimental work in agriculture has been on the response of single species rather than on ecosystems. A report for the EPA as- sessing this work noted that aquatic ecosystems may be more sensi- tive to concentrations of carbon dioxide above 600 and should therefore have first priority in research. (23) Human Health People who stay home, go everywhere in an enclosed car, or work indoors have spent most of their lives in an environment high in carbon dioxide. With this observation the NAS comments in Changing Climate that there is no evidence or any basis in theory for di- rect effects on human health of a doubling, or even trebling of at- mospheric carbon dioxide. The effects of summer heatwaves on human health are already known. A European study noted the following possible effects on humans of climate change: 0 The portion of earth with relatively comfortable temperatures for humans would increase; a Loss of labor productivity resulting from temperature increases at the workplace might occur; 0 The range of parasitic diseases now confined to the tropics and subtropics might be increased. (24) (USDA), and the Nationa] Sci a the U.S. enc Tbe Carbon Dioxide work With the Nationai Ciimat DEPartme nt - Foundation. 0f Agmcu?ture . Pr agency body SEtt'lng priorities Egram Office in NOAA a mu'lt. an coordinat' 1- ing the governmen spending on climate research as DOE spreads its reSearch net ($140 - $150 many uncertainties of the issue to trap some of the Contractors have incTuded the following. Of hard, Scientific data' 0 ghe Institute for Energy AnaTysis at Oak Rid rookhaven Nationai Laboratory 9e, Tenn. Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Lawrence Berkeiey Laboratory The Argonne Nationai Laboratory Scripps Institute of Oceanography The American Association for the Advancement of Science Twenty U.S. Universities Severai studies at overseas at the University of Berne, conferences and stu Carbon Dioxide Division intends orts presenting a state of the the giobai carbon cycie, universities (ice core studies Switzeriand, for exampie) dies are routinely Reports on projects, However in 1985 th set of five or six rep The reports cove detection, effect and an overaii st pubiished. to pubiish a science summary. ciimate modeis and firs ciai report on sea Tevei ris on vegetation, a spe- atement of findingS EXHIBIT 4 DIAGRAM 0F TH CARBON DIOXIDE RESEARCH COMMUNITY NAT. CLIMATE. . . rInCIpaI Researchers \i INST. FOR ENERG ANALYSIS. Carbon Dioxide Info, Ctr. PROGRAM BEELPPS INST. OF DEPARTMENT OF OGRAPHY BROOKHAVEN LAB. ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY I BERKELEY Other Study Grougg 1 AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF SCIENCE UN WORLD CLIMATE PROGRAM LANRENCE LIVERMORE LAB. ARGONNE NATL. LAB. NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE TRATION U.S. UNIVERSITIES RESEARCH RESEARCH OUTSIDE U.S. OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY . -33- in basic science intended for the interested layperson. which un- certainties remain, and what to do about them, will be discussed in this report. In l983, DOE opened an Office of Mitigation, Preven- tion and Adaptation at the Argonne National Laboratory. A major report from this office is not expected before l986. DOE and NOAA cooperate on carbon dioxide studies, exchanging projects and funds where necessary. The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration NOAA's budget for carbon dioxide research is about $2 million/ yr. which funds two major programs, 0 Climate modeling - attempting to establish the effects of carbon dioxide on global climate, at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton. 0 Monitoring of global carbon dioxide atmospheric levels, at Mauna Loa, for example. The National Academy of Sciences NAS has undertaken several independent assessments of the car- bon dioxide question. The most recent, Changing Climate, a substan- tial report prepared on a budget of about $300,000 published in DC- tober, l983, has William Nierenberg, director of Scripps Institute of Oceanography, as its chairman. In l974 and 1975 Roger Revelle was chairman of a group which produced a NAS report on Energy and Climate, a report which was largely responsible for the funding of the DOE program in carbon dioxide research. NAS was later asked to do a rapid reassessment of the issue. It responded with Carbon Dioxide and Climate (The Charney Report) in 1979, assessing the results of current climate models. In l982 the Academy issued Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Second Assessment (The Smagorinsky report) bringing up to date the Charney report. Changing Climate, issued in l983, is the reassessment required -34- by the Energy Security Act, 1980, to provide information and recom- mendations CHI the impacts on the atmosphere of fpssil fuel combus- tion, coal-conversion and fuels activities authorized by the Act. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency spends about $300,000/ yr. on carbon dioxide related research. The Office of Strategic Studies recently sponsored a mini-assessment by SRI International of direct biological effects of carbon dioxide increases. In l983, the EPA published its report, Can We Delay a Greenhouse Narming?, aimed, according to one reviewer at gaining a larger policy role on the issue. The Carbon Dioxide Information Center, at Oak Ridge, notes the following as having funded, or having an interest'hu,information on carbon dioxide projects: 0 Electric Power Research Institute U.S. Department of Defense USDA (U.S. Department of Agriculture) U.S. Geological Survey National Bureau of Standards Gas Research Insitutue (sponsored a conference in conjunc- tion with DOE) Exxon Corporation a The World Climate Programme The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) Norld Cli- mate Programme compiles information on carbon dioxide studies and aims to coordinate international activity in carbon dioxide and climate research. No substantial funding is behind this effort, however. An inventory on on-going and planned climate studies published in March, l983, by UNEP included 69 studies on the impact of in? creased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Fifty were being done in the remainder in Austraii the a, Austria and India. Sweden, uK, Argentina, Canada, January l984 I985 1985 (late) -36- EXHIBIT 5 RECENT AND-FUTURE MEETINGS ON THE CARBON DIOXIDE QUESTION AND RELATED ISSUES Event Global Carbon Cycle. Analysis of the Natural Cycle and Impli- cations of Anthropogenic Alter? ations for the Next Century, Oak Ridge, Tenn. Rising Carbon Dioxide Chang- ing Climate, Forest Risks and Opportunities International Forum on Science and Policy, Austria Global Carbon Cycle International Assessment of Carbon Dioxide Issue Austria Conference on Climatic Vari- ability and Agricultural Productivity Sponsoring Organization DOE, EPRI, GRI NSF, NOAA EPA, Forestry Wood Products Industry IIASA IEA et al HMO, NCP Indian Science Con- gress, Indian National Science Academy Comments International meeting, 250 participants First major meeting for this industry group on carbon di- oxide effects Invitational meeting In the proposal stage An interim assessment meeting was held Sept. '83 International meeting in the planning stage VI. -37- CONCLUSION The major points: 1. Increasing atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide are pro- duced worldwide, primarily by the burning of organic and fossil fuels. No one country acting alone, or group of countries acting together, can by cutting their carbon dioxide emis- sions or reducing them, affect the long term impact to a substantial degree. Carbon dioxide is given off as a by-product of man's activities worldwide, related closely to the growth of agri- culture, industrialization and population. In the debate this far, no one suggests regulating emissions. The idea was dismissed by one researcher as "ludicrous." In any event, recent energy studies using modeling demonstrate how little effect on global change even severe bans on the emission of carbon dioxide would have. Although the U.S. is at present the greatest emitter of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion, its share will eventually decline as developing countries with fas- ter growing populations increase their use of fossil fuels and the U.S. becomes more efficient and sophisticated in its methods of energy supply. (25) The knowledge base on the issue is improving. The global nature of the carbon dioxide issue has en- couraged scientists to share information across disciplines and cooperate in interdisciplinary studies. The issue has served to focus attention on the large systems of the globe, the range of world ecosystems, for example, or the -38.. complexities of the planet's carbon cycle. Each new study brings a piece to fit into the jigsaw puzzle, modifying and developing what is known. What is known today is less alarming than what was known yesterday. The issue has been cast almost wholly in scientific terms. The carbon dioxide question was raised by scientists, investigated by scientists, reported on by scientists and funded as scientific research. Questions of policy and im- plications have barely been raised. Scientists testifying in Congressional hearings have tended to present the issue as an intractable problem promising widespread disaster to the planet if sufficient research funds are not advanced for further study. (26) The NAS report, Changing Climate, shifts ground by proposing an emphasis on climate change rather than on a carbon di- oxide problem. This opens the way for consideration of climate as a dynamic rather than static factor in long-range planning and puts adaptation at the top of the agenda. 4. Almost anything we might think about doing to prepare for a carbon dioxide induced climate change, we probably ought to be doing anyway. Building greater flexibility in systems such as agri- culture, putting climate on the planning agenda of major engineering projects, such as dams, and drainage, adapting society to meet the challenge of a changed climate -- these are all activities which would increase the ability of nations to respond to social or environmental changes from whatever cause. Putting climate change on the planning agenda is be- coming a reality for executives in forestry and wood pro? ducts corporations, in utilities, and in government agen- cies. -39.. Control of emissions by the collection of gas from the stack is not a solution to the global build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The Department of Energy, EPRI and others have com? missioned studies of control technologies which would remove carbon dioxide from the stack and either store or use it in a way which would prevent its early emission to the atmos- phere. Ideas which have been investigated include: pumping carbon dioxide directly from the stack into the deep ocean. It has been speculated that one way of doing this would be to float generating plants over deep water. 0 burying the gas in old mine galleries a pumping the gas into depleted oil wells to enhance recovery of the remaining oil. This is being at- tempted in Texas, where a private contractor has built his processing plant beside a generating sta? tion. He buys the stack gas from the utility, pro- cesses out the carbon dioxide and pumps it to an oilfield a few miles away. (27) collecting the gas for commercial uses, such as dry ice, or circulating it through greenhouses clus- tered around a power plant. No hard figures are available on the costs of these control efforts, although work has been done on estimating them. What is immediately apparent however, is that while one or two of the ideas present, opportunities for entrepre- neurs to process and resell some small portion of the car? bon dioxide from fuel combustion, none of these are econo- mically attractive on a significant scale to slow atmospher- ic buildup. And except for burying the gas in the deep ocean, all of the strategies only delay the emission of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, they do not prevent it. CEQ DOE EPA EPRI GFDL GRI IEA IIASA NAS NASA NOAA NSF ORAU UNEP USDA WCP -40- ABBREVIATIONS 'The American Association for the Advancement of Science Council on Environmental Quality U.S. Department of Energy Environmental Protection Agency Electric Power Research Institute Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Gas Research Institute Institute for Energy Analysis, ORAU International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis National Academy of Sciences National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Science Foundation Oak Ridge Associated Universities United Nations Environmental Programme U.S. Department of Agriculture World Climate Programme, UNEP 10. 11. Stephen Seidel and Dale Keyes, Can We Delay a Greenhouse Narmin Strategic Studies Staff, Office of Policy Analysis, office of Policy and Resources Management, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., Sept. 1983. National Research Council, Changing Climate, report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1983. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: The Greenhouse Effect, Hearing before the Subcommittees on Natural Resources, Agriculture Research and Environment, and Investigations and Oversight, of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, March 25, 1982, p. 84. Proceedings of the Workshop on First Detection of Carbon Dioxide Effects, Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assess- ment Program, Office of Energy Research, U.S. Department of Energy, May 1982, p. 37. Irene M. Smith, Carbon Dioxide -- Emissions and Effects, Coal Research, Institute for Energy Analysis (IEA), London, June 1982, p. 20. Hermann Flohn, "Climate Change and an Ice?Free Arctic Ocean,? Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, Oxford University Press, New York, p. 145. National Research Council, Changing Climate, p. 235. William C. Clark, ed., Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 3?44. William C. Clark, ed., Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, p. 16. Irene M. Smith, Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Effects, p. 20. Amory B. Lovins, et al., Least Cost Energy, Solving the Carbon Dioxide Problem, Brick House, Andover, Mass., 1981, p. -42- National Research Councf], . p. 64. Rotty, and ture\m?9\g\ 13- - from Fossi] Fuels, ak uction of on . ssoci . . ioXide for Energy Oak Ridge. TenhF?dlggivers?hes/Institute earch Re Ort 1932? Institute 14' gszociated UniverSitie or - 5, Oak Ridge, Tnegof AnalySis John - - ae EdmondS and y, 0 a1 Ener and Carb 15- $0 the Year 2059. a working Aszgg1ated1Universities, pubiished in June 3 p- a tit ed: "810ba1 Ener' 111 to the Year 2050" 9y UC on 6 Clark, ed., Carbon Dioxide Review: 1 . Bentley. "Response Ice Sheet to 17. Cha;1:50ioxide Induced Warming," Carbon Dioxidei?fects Car Orch and Assessment Program, Environmenta] and SoCietai Resea ences of a Possibie Carbon Dioxide Inducedinimate consegu V01. 11, Part 1, Office of Energy Research,LLS. of Energy, 1982- Of the Nest - tionai Research Counci], Chan in Ch?mate, DD. 433-448. 18. a I ate conversation with John Hoffman, Sept. 8,1383 19. Priv I cal . . . "d ectslil?220 23. 24. 25. 26. 27. heric Carbon Increased Atmosp _1 5? ?wa Of 1982, pp- A The Direft B;giog&? Internat10"a]? SEptember Dioxide eve through A-12- a . l, - p. 76. and Effects, Carbon Dioxide -- EmiSSion Smit Irene M. 30. . 10. to the Year 2050, Greenhouse Effect. 'de and Ciimate: The Carbon Diox1 . Dec. 1983. 1 ersation with M1Chae Private COHV ~43. tion . WBritish Thermal Um't . . 5 (Btus . Btu units 1n System? ar?etge ba_51c energy needed to ra15e one pound of Water tn :5 the energy farenhe1t. one degree - James (J) are the basic ener - . Joule- system. One joule 0.0009 1n the metr1c tionS bbre?na . - tt?yea . ons of Coal 333d: 10?1?3 1c Feet of Gas: gugzglent mtce 103 "99304) 106 5193(5); 109 Terra 10 0.995 106 Btus 1-0 EJ 0.995 Quads 1?0 kNy 31$51? ?33 _3 1312523 gas 1.06 10 GJ Nh(e) means watt-hours of e1ectr1?ca1 energy 5 me Environmenta1 Protection Agency ou . . . -43- GLOSSARY OF ENERGY UNITS Definitions Btu: British Thermal Units (Btus) are the basic energy units in the English System. One Btu is the energy needed to raise one pound of water one degree farenheit. Joule: Joules (J) are the basic energy units in the metric system. One joule 0.0009 Btus. Abbreviations Watt- hour: Nh* Barrel of Oil Equivalent: boe Natt- -yea55w Metric Tons of Coal fEguivalent: mtce Quad: Btus Cubic Feet of Gas: gas Prefixes 3 6 9 Kilo(k): lu Mega(M) 10 Giga(G): 10 Terra (T): 1012 Deta(D): 1015 Exa(E): 1018 Conversions 6 1.0 GJ 0.995 10 Btus 1.0 EJ 0.995 Quads 1.0 kNy 31.5 GJ 1.0 31. 5 Ed 1.0 mtce 29.2 23 1.0 b0 .1 1.0 935 1.06 10 3 GJ Wh(e) means watt-hours of electrical energy Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency