Estimated State Funding Amounts under Current Law compared to Graham‐Cassidy
(Amounts in millions of dollars)
State
Total
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Current Law
          150,426
                  879
                  443
               3,541
               2,185
            32,478
               2,473
               2,114
                  619
                  487
               7,980
               2,234
                  711
                  422
               5,208
               2,857
               1,157
                  350
               3,362
               4,172
                  409
               3,341
               2,913
               5,335
               2,622
                  404
               1,282
                  762
                  390
               1,589
                  608
               4,624
               1,825
            14,690
               3,494
                  425
               5,865
                  642
               3,358
               6,768
                  486
               1,049
                  128
               1,104
               4,336
                  524
                  378
               1,625
               3,241
               1,206
               1,159
                  170

Calendar Year 2020
Proposed
Change
% Change
          148,800              (1,626)
‐1%
               1,028                   149
17%
                  703                   260
59%
               3,361                  (180)
‐5%
               2,075                  (111)
‐5%
            30,831              (1,647)
‐5%
               2,347                  (125)
‐5%
               2,007                  (107)
‐5%
                  588                    (31)
‐5%
                  462                    (25)
‐5%
               8,327                   347
4%
               2,493                   258
12%
                  675                    (36)
‐5%
                  461                     38
9%
               4,944                  (264)
‐5%
               2,712                  (145)
‐5%
               1,098                    (59)
‐5%
                  421                     71
20%
               3,191                  (170)
‐5%
               3,960                  (211)
‐5%
                  433                     24
6%
               3,172                  (169)
‐5%
0%
               2,923                     10
               5,065                  (270)
‐5%
               2,489                  (133)
‐5%
                  521                   116
29%
               1,414                   132
10%
               1,177                   415
55%
                  426                     36
9%
               1,508                    (81)
‐5%
                  577                    (31)
‐5%
               4,390                  (234)
‐5%
               1,732                    (93)
‐5%
            13,946                  (745)
‐5%
               3,694                   200
6%
                  645                   219
52%
               5,568                  (297)
‐5%
                  752                   110
17%
               3,188                  (170)
‐5%
               6,425                  (343)
‐5%
                  461                    (25)
‐5%
               1,176                   126
12%
                  489                   361
282%
               1,294                   189
17%
               5,134                   798
18%
                  578                     54
10%
                  359                    (19)
‐5%
               1,745                   121
7%
               3,077                  (164)
‐5%
               1,145                    (61)
‐5%
               1,259                   100
9%
                  356                   186
109%

Current Law
          211,647
               1,230
                  622
               5,008
               3,074
            45,663
               3,477
               2,973
                  875
                  686
            11,168
               3,127
               1,002
                  591
               7,325
               4,022
               1,627
                  490
               4,731
               5,865
                  572
               4,700
               4,120
               7,503
               3,707
                  566
               1,794
               1,070
                  546
               2,234
                  855
               6,499
               2,568
            20,877
               4,888
                  598
               8,255
                  898
               4,724
               9,518
                  683
               1,468
                  179
               1,545
               6,067
                  733
                  534
               2,273
               4,560
               1,696
               1,621
                  238

Calender Year 2026
Proposed
Change
% Change
          193,200            (18,447)
‐9%
               3,589                2,360
192%
                  388                  (234)
‐38%
               4,573                  (436)
‐9%
               2,387                  (687)
‐22%
            24,933            (20,730)
‐45%
               2,658                  (819)
‐24%
               1,428              (1,545)
‐52%
                  459                  (416)
‐48%
                  353                  (333)
‐49%
            13,905                2,737
25%
               6,873                3,746
120%
                  550                  (452)
‐45%
               1,105                   514
87%
               6,980                  (345)
‐5%
               3,943                    (80)
‐2%
               1,632                        5
0%
               1,637                1,147
234%
               3,167              (1,564)
‐33%
               3,473              (2,391)
‐41%
                  823                   251
44%
               2,303              (2,397)
‐51%
               2,909              (1,212)
‐29%
               6,113              (1,390)
‐19%
               2,511              (1,197)
‐32%
               2,530                1,964
347%
               3,635                1,841
103%
                  624                  (446)
‐42%
               1,037                   491
90%
               1,824                  (409)
‐18%
                  460                  (394)
‐46%
               3,931              (2,568)
‐40%
               1,745                  (823)
‐32%
            11,704              (9,173)
‐44%
               6,973                2,085
43%
                  331                  (267)
‐45%
               6,759              (1,496)
‐18%
               2,641                1,743
194%
               2,426              (2,298)
‐49%
               6,628              (2,890)
‐30%
                  562                  (121)
‐18%
               3,322                1,853
126%
                  470                   291
162%
               4,539                2,994
194%
            18,818             12,751
210%
               1,492                   759
103%
                  278                  (256)
‐48%
               3,757                1,484
65%
               3,535              (1,025)
‐22%
               1,303                  (393)
‐23%
               2,935                1,314
81%
4%
                  248                     10

These estimates reflect the following assumptions for the Graham‐Cassidy state‐by‐state allocations:
1)
The allotments to states do not reflect any net effects for the population risk, coverage value, or state specific population adjustments. It is possible that the application
          of these adjustments could shift states in or out of the various categories.
2)
$6.8 billion of the $10 billion reserved funds from section 4(C) are assumed to be allocated in 2020 and the remaining $3.2 billion are assumed to be allocated in 2026.
3)
The $6 billion in 2020 and $5 billion in 2021 contingency fund for low‐density and non‐expansion states are included in the allotments.
4)
The total allotment by year in billions of dollars is $149 in 2020, $151 in 2021, $157 in 2022, $168 in 2023, $179 in 2024, $190 in 2025, and $193 in 2026.
5)
The allocations by state in 2026 are based on their share of the population with incomes between 50% and 138% of the Federal Poverty Level.
6)
The current law projections are based on our estimates of the 2018 Mid‐session review budget.
7)
The 2020 estimates reflect our current law projections reduced proportionately to the allotment level.  It is possible that the method specified in the law for determining 
          the 2020 allotments could lead to some differences from our approach but not in a way that we think is significant for this evaluation.
8)
The estimate does not include any effects of the short term stability funding.

CMS / Office of the Actuary