4 MASON-DIXON POLLING STRATEGY WASHINGTON. DC - 202-548-2680 JACKSONVILLE, FL - 904-261-2444 MASON-DIXON VIRGINIA POLL SEPTEMBER 2017 PART II: CONFEDERATE MONUMENTS VIRGINIANS OPPOSE REMOVAL OF MONUMENTS A majority of Virginia voters oppose removal of Confederate monuments and believe they are an important part of American history. Statewide, 52% oppose removing statues of Confederate generals, such as Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson, and 62% oppose removing local monuments to Confederate soldiers who served or died during the war. When asked if they associated these monuments more with American history or with the glorification of racism and resistance to civil rights, 55% said history and 37% said racism. But, a majority of state voters (54%) also support efforts to provide additional interpretation and context to existing Confederate monuments to tell a more inclusive story of their history. Opinion on these issues divides sharply along racial lines. A majority of AfricanAmerican voters support removal of statues of Confederate leaders (57%) and believe Confederate monuments represent racism and civil rights resistance (65%). However, slightly less than half (49%) support removing statutes honoring common soldiers. But there are also areas of agreement across racial lines. When it comes to expanding the removal of statues to other historical figures, who are not tied to the Confederacy but owned slaves before the Civil War (such as George Washington and Thomas Jefferson), opposition is extremely high across the board-- 86% statewide and 77% among black voters. Voters across racial lines also agree that removing the statues is not a good use of public money (67% statewide & 58% among blacks) and that the local governments who decide to remove statutes should be responsible for shouldering the cost (60% statewide & 53% among African-Americans). 3 HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from September 10 through September 15, 2017. A total of 625 registered Virginia voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election. Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Virginia voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping. 4 QUESTION: In the wake of the tragedy in Charlottesville last month, there has been a call for removal of monuments in Virginia that honor Confederate leaders such as Robert E. Lee and Stonewall Jackson. Do you support or oppose removal of such monuments? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 35% 52% 13% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 43% 33% 36% 34% 28% 26% 40% 56% 51% 50% 64% 67% 17% 11% 13% 16% 8% 7% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 30% 39% 59% 46% 11% 15% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 50+ 40% 31% 47% 56% 13% 13% RACE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED White Black 29% 57% 58% 29% 13% 14% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 59% 16% 24% 22% 79% 62% 19% 5% 14% STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women PARTY ID Democrat Republican Independent 5 QUESTION: Throughout Virginia, there are also monuments in cities and towns honoring Confederate units and common soldiers from those regions who served in the Civil War. Many specifically honor those who died in the war. Do you support or oppose removal of these monuments? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 24% 62% 14% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 32% 17% 27% 31% 12% 12% 46% 69% 63% 53% 82% 83% 22% 14% 10% 16% 6% 5% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 21% 27% 67% 58% 12% 15% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 50+ 29% 20% 54% 68% 17% 12% RACE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED White Black 17% 49% 70% 35% 13% 16% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 30% 13% 15% 49% 80% 71% 21% 7% 14% STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women PARTY ID Democrat Republican Independent 6 QUESTION: Which one of the following statements comes closer to your view: (ORDER ROTATED) - Confederate monuments are an important part of American history - Confederate monuments glorify racism and resistance to civil rights HISTORY STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women 55% RACISM 33% 65% 57% 55% 67% 78% 58% 26% 36% 35% 28% 17% HISTORY RACISM 59% 52% HISTORY <50 50+ 46% 62% RACE HISTORY White Black 66% 18% Democrat Republican Independent 37% HISTORY AGE PARTY ID RACISM 33% 40% RACISM 41% 34% RACISM 29% 65% HISTORY RACISM 23% 90% 59% 66% 7% 32% 7 NOT SURE 8% NOT SURE 9% 9% 7% 10% 5% 5% NOT SURE 8% 8% NOT SURE 13% 4% NOT SURE 5% 17% NOT SURE 11% 3% 9% QUESTION: Although the removal of these monuments has generated considerable media attention, less attention has been paid on the cost of removing and storing these monuments, which often costs hundreds of thousands of dollars. Do you think this is or is not good use of government money? YES, IT IS STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women 24% NO, IT IS NOT 31% 23% 24% 26% 16% 13% 55% 73% 66% 64% 76% 81% YES, IT IS NO, IT IS NOT 19% 29% YES, IT IS <50 50+ 27% 22% RACE YES, IT IS White Black 23% 29% Democrat Republican Independent 67% YES, IT IS AGE PARTY ID NO, IT IS NOT 73% 62% NO, IT IS NOT 65% 68% NO, IT IS NOT 73% 58% YES, IT IS NO, IT IS NOT 37% 13% 19% 46% 84% 77% 8 NOT SURE 9% NOT SURE 14% 4% 10% 10% 8% 6% NOT SURE 8% 9% NOT SURE 8% 10% NOT SURE 4% 13% NOT SURE 17% 3% 4% QUESTION: Do you think that local governments that decide to move Confederate monuments do or do not have an obligation to pay for moving them to other locations, like museums? YES, THEY DO NO, THEY DO NOT NOT SURE 60% 27% 13% YES, THEY DO NO, THEY DO NOT NOT SURE 55% 56% 63% 58% 65% 69% 34% 31% 25% 25% 23% 18% 11% 13% 12% 17% 12% 13% YES, THEY DO NO, THEY DO NOT NOT SURE 62% 58% 24% 29% 14% 13% AGE YES, THEY DO NO, THEY DO NOT NOT SURE <50 50+ 54% 65% 33% 22% 13% 13% RACE YES, THEY DO NO, THEY DO NOT NOT SURE White Black 62% 53% 25% 35% 13% 12% YES, THEY DO NO, THEY DO NOT NOT SURE 59% 66% 56% 29% 24% 26% 12% 10% 18% STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women PARTY ID Democrat Republican Independent 9 QUESTION: Do you support or oppose efforts to provide additional interpretation and context to existing Confederate monuments to tell a more inclusive story of their history? SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 54% 32% 14% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 55% 52% 49% 52% 58% 59% 32% 37% 37% 29% 31% 27% 13% 11% 14% 19% 11% 14% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 52% 56% 35% 29% 13% 15% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED <50 50+ 50% 57% 31% 33% 19% 10% RACE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED White Black 60% 34% 27% 47% 13% 19% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 45% 58% 62% 39% 26% 29% 16% 16% 9% STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women PARTY ID Democrat Republican Independent 10 QUESTION: In addition to Confederate monuments, there has also been talk about removing monuments to other historic American figures like George Washington and Thomas Jefferson, because they owned slaves. Do you support or oppose removal of monuments to other American historical figures? SUPPORT OPPOSE 7% 86% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 12% 4% 4% 7% 6% 3% 77% 91% 87% 90% 87% 93% 11% 5% 9% 3% 7% 4% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 3% 10% 90% 83% AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE <50 50+ 10% 5% 82% 89% RACE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED White Black 5% 12% 89% 77% 6% 11% SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED 12% 3% 5% 75% 97% 88% 13% 7% STATE REGION Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest SEX Men Women PARTY ID Democrat Republican Independent 11 UNDECIDED 7% 7% 7% UNDECIDED 8% 6% DEMOGRAPHICS PARTY REGISTRATION: Democrat Republican Independent or Other 246 (39%) 198 (32%) 181 (29%) 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Refused 114 (18%) 164 (26%) 194 (31%) 147 (24%) 6 (1%) White/Caucasian Black/African American Hispanic Other Refused 435 (70%) 117 (19%) 35 (6%) 27 (3%) 11 (2%) Male Female 299 (48%) 326 (52%) Northern Virginia Shenandoah/Piedmont Richmond Metro Hampton Roads Lynchburg/Southside Roanoke/Southwest 170 (27%) 95 (15%) 90 (14%) 125 (20%) 75 (12%) 70 (11%) AGE: RACE/ETHNICITY: SEX: REGION: 12 VIRGINIA POLL REGIONS NORTHERN VIRGINIA: Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties and the independent cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas and Manassas Park. SHENANDOAH/PIEDMONT: Stafford, Spotsylvania, King George, Caroline, Louisa, Fluvanna, Albemarle, Nelson, Greene, Orange, Madison, Culpepper, Fauquier, Rappahannock, Clarke, Frederick, Warren, Shenandoah, Page, Rockingham, Augusta and Rockbridge counties and the independent cities of Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Winchester, Waynesboro, Staunton, Buena Vista and Lexington. RICHMOND METRO: Chesterfield, Henrico, Hanover, Powhatan, Goochland, New Kent and Charles City counties and the independent cities of Richmond and Colonial Heights. HAMPTON ROADS: Accomack, Northampton, Northumberland, Westmoreland, Lancaster, Middlesex, Mathews, Richmond, Essex, King & Queen, King William, Gloucester, James City and York counties and the independent cities of Williamsburg, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk. LYNCHBURG/SOUTHSIDE: Isle of Wight, Sussex, Surry, Southampton, Greensville, Dinwiddie, Prince George, Brunswick, Mecklenburg, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Amelia, Prince Edward, Cumberland, Buckingham, Appomattox, Amherst, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania, Henry, Franklin and Bedford counties and the independent cities of Petersburg, Hopewell, Franklin, Emporia, Danville, Martinsville, Lynchburg and Bedford. ROANOKE/SOUTHWEST: Highland, Bath, Alleghany, Botetourt, Roanoke, Craig, Montgomery, Floyd, Patrick, Giles, Pulaski, Carroll, Grayson, Wythe, Bland, Tazewell, Smyth, Washington, Buchanan, Dickenson, Russell, Wise, Scott and Lee counties and the independent cities of Roanoke, Salem, Radford, Covington, Galax, Norton and Bristol. 13