JLASS-SP AY16

SITUATION UPDATE #1

AS OF: 4 January 2026

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USAFRICOM
MALI/MAURITANIA: OPERATION DESERT STRIKE
Increased Attacks Take Toll on Coalition Forces
A steady increase in violence in northern Mauritania and Mali continues to frustrate
Operation Desert Strike commanders as they struggle to counter a stubborn enemy.
According to a U.S. official, attacks in December 2025 were up a staggering 90% over
November – a trend which could produce, in January 2026, the highest number of attacks
since operations began in June 2022. “We are facing a tough and adaptive enemy,” said
Major General Roger Evans, the senior U.S. commander in the operation. “But this
coalition is tougher and more adaptive. We will continue to work with our partners to root
out and destroy al Qaeda. We are making progress, but it will take time.”
During a 23 December press briefing, C/JTF 990 spokesman Colonel Byron Scales
acknowledged that there were have been some recent setbacks and cited an influx of
foreign fighters into the region as the prime reason for the spike in violence. “The area of
operations is huge and the terrain is very rugged and difficult to control. We’re doing our
best to work with the nations in the region to control the flow of enemy fighters and
weapons into Mali, Mauritania and Algeria, but there simply are not enough forces to be
everywhere.”
Responding to questions, Colonel Scales stated that the coalition was intensifying efforts
to locate the U.S. Special Forces advisor, Sergeant First Class James Karney, who was
reported missing earlier this month following a 6 December ambush on Mauritanian
ground forces that was accompanied by two U.S. Special Forces advisors. The
Mauritanian unit was en route back to its base following a training exercise when it was
ambushed; one U.S. advisor was killed in the exchange and one is still missing.
Unconfirmed reports indicate the U.S. service member was captured by a group aligned
with AQIM.
Since Operation Desert Strike began on 15 June 2022, it is estimated that over 3,000
militants have joined AQIM from outside the Islamic Maghreb – a number that may
continue to grow. Alaya Allani, an analyst at the Center for North African Studies in
Chicago, believes the conflict in Northwestern Africa will continue to draw foreign fighters
in much the same way the wars in Iraq and the Levant did a decade or more ago. “The
call to jihad by the religious leadership of AQIM and reaffirmed by AQIM leader Mohamed
Saci is resonating with extremists. There are many who view the military operations by
the U.S. led coalition in the Maghreb as one more in a long line of insults towards Islam.”
(Source: AP News)

Suicide Bomber Kills 91 in Attack on Canadian Troops
On 24 December 2025, a suspected member of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)
detonated a massive car bomb near a Canadian military base in eastern Mauritania. The
vehicle, loaded with an estimated 300 kilograms of explosives, attempted to bypass a
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checkpoint at the gate leading into the
I Canadian military base in Nema. Soldiers
opened ?re on the vehicle but it managed to
reach within 20 meters of the gate before it

Mauritania



 

 

. I Lh? exploded.

 4517??  "Soldiers fired warning shots but the car didn't
rigidity: g_     stop. It exploded," said a security source who
?3153? asked not to be named but was at the scene

 in Nema, 1,200 km east of Nouakchott. The

 

security source could not confirm the identity of the attacker but said AQIM was believed
to be responsible.

Local media said that the blast caused tremendous casualties. The local market is directly
outside the Canadian military base and the square
was packed with mid-day shoppers and vendors.
Initial reports put the death toll at 83 civilians, with
over 300 wounded. The Canadian military has said
that 8 Canadian soldiers from the base were killed
and 15 more were wounded in the blast. It is unclear
how many of the Canadian casualties were outside
the base at the gate and how many were inside the
walls. Collapsed walls and damage to buildings could
clearly be seen inside the Canadian compound.

 

The attack in Nema was latest in a string of high-pro?le attacks by AQIM against coalition
forces. The bombing comes days after AQIM attacked a US. logistics convoy in northern
Mali, killing 7 US. soldiers and destroying over 20 trucks. It also follows AQIM's claim of
responsibility last month for the assassination of three Mauritanian government ministers
in response to a raid by Mauritanian troops against one of its bases in the Sahara desert.

AQIM, and groups linked to the militants have also carried out a wave of kidnappings of
foreign journalists and businessmen over the past six months, earning themselves
millions of dollars in ransom payments, say. (Source: Reuters)

Canadian Prime Minister Sticks by Pull-out Timeline

Speaking to reporters on 13 December 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Richard Baker
reaffirmed Canada's plans to withdraw its troops from Mauritania beginning on April 1,
2026. Mr. Baker said the country was not avoiding any duties by sticking to the timeline."
Canada has indeed given much of itself. It has sacrificed the lives of 52 Canadian soldiers,
one Canadian reporter, one diplomat and two aid workers since the Canadian military
deployed to Northern Africa in June 2022.? His comments come on the heels of an attack
on a Canadian military base in southeastern Mauritania that left 8 Canadian soldiers dead
and 15 wounded.

The conflict in Mauritania and Mali has consumed a large proportion of Canadian
international aid funding. The war has been increasingly unpopular in Canada as

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casualties have continued to rise. Despite Canada's appeals to other NATO membercountries to relieve it of some of the burden in the region, none have stepped up to the
plate as events in Europe have begun to draw their focus inward. Canada heads into a
general election on October 14, 2026. (Source: Multiple Media)

AU Requests US$145 Million to Take Over Fight against Al Qaeda
The African Union sent a request to the U.S. and Canada for US $145 million to properly
prepare and equip the Africa Standby Force (ASF) for its mission to relieve U.S. and other
coalition forces in Mauritania and Mali. The request, delivered by AU spokesman Barigye
Bahoku from the AU Directorate of Peace and Security, outlined the specific needs of the
12 contributing countries and highlighted the extreme measures the countries were taking
to prepare for this new mission. “The ASF does not have the funding necessary to
respond to this new mission,” Mr. Bahoku said after meeting with John McNamara, the
Deputy Chief of Mission in the U.S. Mission to the African Union. “The forces of the AU
are being pulled in many directions – from Somalia to Sudan. We have exhausted the
funding that is available and cannot continue without assistance. The AU emphasizes
that Africa wishes to develop the capability to handle our challenges regionally, without
outside intervention. This is just a very trying and difficult time.”
Mr. Bahokau acknowledged that the United States has already contributed US$110
million over the past five years to support the ASF, but emphasized that more help is
needed to respond in North Africa. (Source: The New York Times)

UN Calls for Calm, Cooperation, and Assistance
Secretary General Henry L. MacDonald returned from a recent tour of the Mali/Mauritania
counter-terrorism operations and from a visit to UN refugee camps along the Republic of
Sudan/South Sudan border. In a press conference held at UN Headquarters in New York
City, Mr. MacDonald acknowledged that there was still an unacceptable level of terrorist
violence against civilians in Mali, Mauritania and Algeria, but cited progress in a return to
normalcy and applauded the scheduled handover of responsibilities from the U.S. led
coalition in the region to the African Union’s Standby Force. The ability of the African
Community of Nations to intervene on behalf of the African people was cited as evidence
of the enormous progress the African Union has made over the last decade.
When questioned about the situation along the border between the two Sudans,
MacDonald offered the sympathies of the civilized world to those suffering from famine
and violence in South Sudan. He called upon the Republic of Sudan government to permit
the uninterrupted distribution of foreign food aid flowing into the country, and requested
the nations of the world reach deeper into their resources than ever before to provide
lifesaving food and medical supplies to the suffering masses in Sudan.
There have been increasing reports of attacks and interference against international aid
convoys and workers by both Republic of Sudan forces and Janjaweed militants working
as surrogates for the North. The end result is that relief supplies have been slowed to a
trickle and a looming humanitarian disaster is a very real possibility. “If we don’t come
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together as a community to ward off this potential disaster,” stated MacDonald, “millions
are in danger of perishing in South Sudan. If we do not stem the tide of violence and
hatred, hundreds of thousands are in danger of suffering the depredations of a protracted
war. If we sit idly by without coming to the aid of our brothers and sisters, future
generations will hold us accountable for the fates of all those at risk in Sudan.” (Source:
Multiple Media)

MOROCCO
A spokesman for the United Nations reported that two members of the United Nations
Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) were killed on 27 Dec 2025
when they came under fire during a routine patrol southwest of the Western Saharan city
of Smara. According to Stephan Ignu, the two Soldiers, serving as part of the Honduran
contingent of the MINURSO, and were making a scheduled patrol when their vehicle was
struck by small arms weapons fire. Two other occupants of the vehicle, a Nepalese police
officer and a member of the mission’s civilian staff, received minor wounds.
“We send our deepest sympathies to the
families of the UN troops who were killed in
this senseless act of violence,” said Ignu.
“These individuals were operating under the
auspices of the United Nations in order
monitor the ceasefire between Morocco and
the Frente POLISARIO and this act shows
a great disregard for the cause of peace and
dialogue.”
Royal Moroccan Army forces responded to
the reports of gunfire but arrived after the
individuals responsible for the attack had
fled. To this point no group has claimed
responsibility for the attack but many in the
Moroccan government suspect the work of
al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) –
likely aided by the POLISARIO.
“This is one more example of the growing indication of cooperation between the
POLISARIO and al Qaeda [AQ] and other terrorist groups,” stated a spokesperson from
the Ministry of the Interior. “We are seeing many fighters coming out of the Tindouf
Polisario camps in Algeria. Some go to Mali and Mauritania to fight, but others are being
trained to come to Morocco. This has been going on for many years, but it has reached
a crisis point with the resurgence of AQIM.”
The Tindouf camps in extreme southwestern Algeria, are home to between 150,000200,000 Sahrawi refugees who fled the conflict between Morocco and the Polisario Front
beginning in 1975 after Spain withdrew from the “Spanish Sahara.” The November 1975
Madrid Accords, an agreement between Spain, Morocco and Mauritania, ended Spanish
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presence in the area and divided the territory between Morocco and Mauritania. The
Polisario Front, a Sahrawi rebel movement supported by Algeria, opposed the Accords
and waged a guerrilla war for an independent Sahrawi state against both Mauritania and
Morocco. In 1979 Mauritania relinquished all rights to any area in Western Sahara and
Morocco immediately claimed this area vacated by Mauritania.
Throughout the mid to late 1980s, in an attempt to guard against Polisario troops,
Morocco built a large 2700km berm across Western Sahara. Over the past 30 years,
Moroccan forces have controlled west of the “wall” while the Polisario has controlled the
east. In 1991 the UN brokered a cease-fire and a UN peacekeeping mission (the
MINURSO) has been in place.
Western Sahara is one of the world’s longest frozen conflicts. Throughout the years,
numerous diplomatic attempts have been attempted to reach a negotiated settlement,
most notably 20 years ago by UN special representative and former U.S. Secretary of
State James Baker. All have met with failure.
The Tindouf refugee camps have long been pointed to as an incubator for extremism and
terrorists. Harsh environmental and living conditions, few prospects for advancement and
an acute dissatisfaction with efforts to diplomatically reach a settlement have created a
ready pool of angry young men ripe for recruiting by AQ. The government of Morocco has
waged an ongoing campaign to combat terrorism. Unfortunately, they are faced with an
increasingly aggressive external threat and, many say, a level of robust cooperation
between AQ and the Polisario that will require resolve and innovation to defeat. (Source:
Reuters)

SOMALIA
Terrorist Groups Related to al Qaeda Establish Training Camps in Somalia
Although Somalia has remained relatively calm since the completion of the French-led
European Defense Initiative (EDI) operations in 2018, reports have begun to surface that
several al Qaeda related terrorist groups have formed training camps in the western
frontier areas of Somalia. Little information is available to define the location of these
camps, but international Jihadist web organizations have hosted blog postings recruiting
“warriors to Somalia to aid in the resistance of the western influences in Africa.”
While not recognized by any nation, Somaliland has made remarkable progress in
attaching itself to the civilized world. Several nations including Japan, Australia, Egypt,
Great Britain, and Italy have all established informal “legations” in the capital, Hargeisa.
Somaliland has been particularly helpful to nations pursuing counter-terrorism goals in
the region, allowing basing and sharing intelligence. (Source: The Economist)

Kenya Attacks Al-Shabaab Camps in Somalia
On 13 December 2024, Kenyan troops backed by warships destroyed two al-Shabaab
training camps near Kisimayo as Kenya intensified their crackdown on the militant groups
in southern Somalia. A military spokesman said the Kenya Defense Forces (KDF), along
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with soldiers from the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia, destroyed the training
facility that is used by foreign terrorists such as al Qaeda to train al-Shabaab fighters.
The Kenyan military says it has secured some areas of southern Somalia and is urging
aid agencies to come back to the country to help those in need. Kenya's Foreign Ministry
says it is also trying to win international approval for African Union forces to join the fight.
Kenyan officials insist that Kenya’s forces were at war
with Somali al-Shabaab militants who threaten
Kenya's heavily tourist-dependent economy and its
national security, and not with the Somali people
themselves.
Over the past two years, the militia group has
abducted twenty-four foreigners from inside Kenya,
but these kidnappings are more likely meant to
discredit the Kenyan government rather than to raise
funds through ransom. Security analysts believe like
al Qaeda, al-Shabaab's main sources of funding may
be legitimate businesses in Nairobi and Mogadishu,
from which the group draws funds to keep its
operations running.
Al-Shabaab has been fighting since 2008 to topple the weak central government of
Somalia. The group has been in and out of the capital, Mogadishu, over the past decade
and still controls large sections of southern and central Somalia. The insurgent nature of
the group prevents a set-piece battle and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in southern
Somalia has forced the Kenyan troops to focus mostly on securing relief supplies as
opposed to engaging in real battle against the group. Kenya is home to the Dadaab
refugee camp, the world’s largest with up to 450,000 refugees – most of whom are
Somalis who have fled the violence in their own war-torn country.
The attacks by Kenya came as refugees from Somalia say a large number of Ethiopian
troops have crossed into Somalia to join the military operation against al-Shabaab. News
reports quoted Somali elders as saying the Ethiopian troops moved into western Somalia
in armored vehicles. The Ethiopian government would not confirm the reports, but
Ethiopian officials have maintained that they would like to support Kenya's operation
against al-Shabaab and al Qaeda. (Source: Al Jazeera)

BOTSWANA
A Stable Nation
One of the jewels of sub-Saharan Africa, Botswana has enjoyed stability, security and
relative prosperity for more than two decades. Principle industries include tourism
(especially eco-tourism) and cattle farming. In the last decade, the beef industry in
Botswana has flourished, becoming the world’s third largest net exporter of beef, behind
only Argentina and Brazil. The majority of this growth has been to booming Asian markets
fueled by continued economic growth in Japan, Korea, and China. Botswana has
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successfully fought through outbreaks of hoof and mouth disease and has developed
effective livestock management practices to prevent the disease and control any
additional outbreaks. (Source: Official Government Press Release)

SUDAN
UN Strongly Condemns Bombardment of Refugee Camp
Lisa Le Grande, the UN’s Humanitarian Aid Coordinator in South Sudan, strongly
condemned the aerial bombardment by Sudan which struck a camp for displaced persons
and refugees in South Sudan.
On the afternoon of 20 December 2025, five bombs hit the area of Yida, in Unity State,
with two shells falling directly inside the shelter site. One shell fell near a small tin building
that is being used as a school. The number of casualties has yet to be confirmed.
“The 20 December attack in Yida has put innocent civilians at extreme risk,” said Ms. Le
Grande. “Many of the people in Yida have travelled miles to escape violence and are in
a highly vulnerable condition. The bombing in Yida has severely disrupted the
humanitarian operation and comes at a time when we should be scaling up our effort.”
The World Food Programme (WFP) and implementing partners have been forced to
suspend emergency food distributions, and humanitarian personnel have been
evacuated from the area in the wake of the attack.
A small number of humanitarian workers remain to ensure essential assistance continues,
including the provision of medical care, water and sanitation, and the distribution of
airlifted food. Humanitarian workers plan to resume assistance missions following a
security assessment. Alternative sites to support the refugee and displaced population
are also being prepared further south in South Sudan. (Source: UN Press Release)

Deteriorating Situation along Sudanese Border
The head of United Nations Peacekeeping Operations urged the governments of South
Sudan and Sudan to refrain from aggressive actions and statements that could lead to a
further deterioration in their relations following recent border incidents.
“Only the two parties, working together, can efficiently and effectively manage security at
their common border. The United Nations stands ready to support them in this respect,”
said Hervé Valencies, Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, in a
briefing to the Security Council.
Mr. Valencies said that on 28 December 2025 the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS)
sent a verification team to Yida in South Sudan’s Unity state which confirmed that at least
five bombs were dropped on a refugee shelter there the preceding week. Four bombs
exploded, but the fifth, which landed on a school compound, did not. Eyewitnesses told
the team that the bombs were dropped by a white Antonov aircraft from Sudan, an
allegation denied by Sudan. They said that members of the ethnic Nuba community who
fled Yida refugee camp following the bombing are now going back. Mr. Valencies also
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confirmed that a bombing took place in Quffa in Maban county of Sudan’s Upper Nile
state on 21 December, with at least four bombs dropped there.
The African Union has convened a meeting between the governments of Sudan and
South Sudan to attempt to defuse this crisis and support the consolidation of peaceful
relations between the two countries. The meeting will address unresolved issues that
have lingered since the 2011 split between the two countries. The meeting will take place
in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, from 11-12 January 2026 and will be a prelude to
a much larger UN-sponsored meeting scheduled for 2 February 2026 in Malta. The
African Union hopes that the Addis Ababa meetings will lay the groundwork for
meaningful dialogue a month later in Malta.
Mr. Valencies stated, “I would like to urge both governments to demonstrate the
necessary flexibility and commitment in the upcoming negotiations in Addis Ababa, and
agree swiftly on a package of measures that will be discussed at Malta in order to resolve
remaining differences on financial and other transitional arrangements, Abyei and border
demarcation.” He said he has also received reports of an increasingly strengthening
military alliance between rebel movements in Darfur and the Sudan People’s Liberation
Army-North (SPLA-North) had been formed with the stated aim of toppling the Sudanese
Government.
“This represents a step further in a pattern of escalation that is counter-productive. The
United Nations continues to stress that all parties to the different conflicts between the
Government of Sudan and its peripheries need to return to the table of negotiations and
resolve their differences through political dialogue.” (Source: BBC)

OCHA UPDATE – SITUATION IN SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN
3 January 2026

SOURCE: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)
HIGHLIGHTS
- The number of refugees and people reported to have been uprooted from their homes
due to insecurity reached over 2,229,000 by the end of November 2025.
- Rapid assessments and surveys confirmed that many areas in the south have
malnutrition levels well above the WHO emergency thresholds.
- Without international intervention, the likelihood of a humanitarian catastrophe is
exceedingly high.

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SITUATION OVERVIEW
The humanitarian situation in Sudan is a cause for grave concern. Increased military
action by the Government of Sudan against various ethnic groups in Sudan and South
Sudan has led to further displacement to the south in recent months. Security constraints
hamper the ability of people to move freely and hinder humanitarian aid.
The areas of Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue
Nile are the focus of extensive UN-led humanitarian
efforts since 2024 and will continue into 2026. Over
the past weeks, greater levels of conflict have
erupted in Abyei and Southern Kordofan leading to
additional
large-scale
displacements.
The
international humanitarian response in both the
Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South
Sudan will need to expand in response to these
crises. The situation in Southern Kordofan is taking place in both the lean season when
local populations are at their most vulnerable.
Across Sudan, the humanitarian situation is complicated by displacement caused by
conflict and insecurity. In Darfur approximately 1.9 million people remain displaced. In
addition, approximately 112,000 people have fled the Abyei area to South Sudan. In
Southern Kordofan, more than 70,000 people were internally displaced by the fighting
that erupted in January 2024. The situation remains volatile, with many civilians
potentially needing expanded humanitarian aid in the months ahead. In addition, there
are estimated to be 900,000 southerners still residing in the north, primarily in and around
Khartoum, who may decide to return to South Sudan in the coming months to flee the
increasing repression and ethnic violence.
The drought during the past year has devastated the indigenous agricultural capabilities
throughout the southern states. In November 2025, the Sudan Meteorological Authority
(SMA) projected another below-normal rainy season for South Sudan and extremely
below-normal rainfall in Sudan part during the period June to September 2026.

CONGO
Unexplained Disappearances Cause Concern
Mission to Mankind missionaries, Dr. Jake and Sherry McPherson, reported to officials in
Kinshasa on 4 January that, during their journey down the Congo River from the Stanley
Falls Region, they encountered three villages burned to the ground with no sign of life in
the vicinity. Their guide advised them not to go ashore, as a sinister force was at work
there. They stated that their observations correlated reports from some of their patients
that entire villages have disappeared. They could not cite a specific cause and their
patients were openly agitated about what they see as “a great evil” afoot in the African
interior. (Source: International Herald Tribune)

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NIGERIA
Boko Haram Rampage in Northern Town
On 18 December 2025, more than thirty members of the radical fundamentalist group
Boko Haram went on a rampage in the northern Nigerian town of Damataru, killing more
than 100 people in a coordinated series of bombings and gun attacks. Many of those
targeted were Christians, but police stations and mosques deemed "insufficiently Islamic"
were also attacked.
Boko Haram, which translates from the local Hausa as “Western education is outlawed
(or sinful),” has been a significant threat in Nigeria since 2009. From 2010-2013, the group
conducted a violent campaign in the northern
Nigerian states of Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno,
Kaduna, Kano and Yobe. From 2013-2014, the
Nigerian government mounted a significant military
offensive against Boko Haram and succeeded in
killing or capturing many of the group’s leaders and
dislodging most of the operational cells. The
majority of the Boko Haram members either melted
into the countryside or fled into neighboring Chad
or Niger.
Over the past eight years, Boko Haram, has reemerged as a well-organized insurgency
responsible for hundreds of attacks in Nigeria and beyond. Its signature attack is a driveby shooting from a motorbike, but the group has increasingly begun resorting to
spectacular and extremely deadly suicide vehicle attacks. It is estimated that over 6900
people have been killed in attacks by Boko Haram since 2016. Many Christians in northeastern Nigeria have fled their homes as the violence has worsened this year. Boko
Haram's targets include police outposts and churches, as well as places associated with
“western influence.”
The growing boldness of Boko Haram is of great concern to Nigerian authorities and its
growing reach and strength worries neighboring states as well as the U.S. Africa
Command – particularly with the ongoing fight against AQIM by U.S. and coalition forces
in Operation Desert Strike. Over the past three years, Boko Haram has expanded its
attacks throughout Nigeria, including the capital city of Abuja in central Nigeria. In 2025
alone the group carried out twelve suicide bombings in the city – attacking the National
Police head-quarters twice. In June 2025, in a significant escalation of its campaign, Boko
Haram carried out a suicide car bombing against the U.N. headquarters in Abuja, killing
43 and wounding hundreds more. The U.N. attack, officials believe, was likely an attempt
by Boko Haram to embarrass the Nigerian government.
The north-eastern city of Maiduguri is at the center of the Nigerian government’s fight
against the insurgent group. In the city there is a heavy military presence with security
checkpoints, sandbagged military positions and the scars left by bomb attacks. Houseto-house searches are common and gunfire can often be heard on the outskirts of town.
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A senior Nigerian military officer reported that the government has deployed over 20,000
troops to Maiduguri and surrounding towns, but admitted that Maiduguri remained a
dangerous place, with Boko Haram slipping across the nearby borders with Chad and
Niger. (Source: CNN)

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USCENTCOM
Iran Blames West, Gulf Allies for Decades of Suffering
Tehran (AP) During his Friday sermon, Iran’s Ayatollah Larijani vehemently blamed the
United States and its Arab partners in the Middle East for what he called “decades of
suffering, destruction, humiliation, and despair” throughout the region. He also took aim
at Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), for the
subjugation and persecution of Shia Muslims, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
“Saudi Arabia, by surrendering to the American
crusaders and Zionists, has abandoned its
responsibility to the Community of Believers,” he
said. “The royal family has abdicated its special
responsibility for the stewardship of our most
precious and sacred places. It has enslaved itself
to the evils and dalliances of the West, and puts the
comfort of hedonistic Westerners above the needs
of its own people. Everything America has touched
is in ruins, even though the Great Satan promised
peace. The Land of the Two Rivers is a killing field. Syria still struggles against the
terrorist threat. The bravest martyrs in Yemen are caged like dogs in the desert, waiting
to die. The Martyrs of Ali suffer everywhere, but I tell you all to stand fast. The day of
reckoning is coming from within and from without. Allah will avenge these decades of
suffering and the slaughtering of so many innocents.” The Ayatollah’s rhetoric also
targeted the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, the Government of
Yemen and Israel, blaming them all for the tragic situation of Syrian and Palestinian
refugees and for the rise of the Global Islamic Caliphate (GIC). He even accused several
of the royal families of providing financial support to the very groups they are now fighting.
Middle East analysts were taken aback by the Supreme Leader’s rhetoric against Saudi
Arabia and its regional allies, which one expert described as “the most hostile in years.”
Saudi Arabia and Iran are political, economic, and now nuclear rivals, and Tehran has
long resented Riyadh’s leadership in the region. Tehran’s power and influence, however,
have grown with the lifting of economic sanctions and its critical role (along with Russia
and Syria) in fighting the GIC. One analyst commented, off the record, that while
depressed oil prices are likely contributing to the high level of friction “there is probably
more to it than that. There seems to be a window of opportunity opening up in the Middle
East that we haven’t seen in a long time. American leadership is in question and Iran is
in a position to drastically change the status quo. We really are depending on the GCC to
keep a lid on things, but these messages are resonating. We’ve got as much human
suffering on the ground as ever, but now there’s military capacity they didn’t have before.
The Russians, Iranians, Iraqis and GCC are all a different story from what they were ten
years ago.”
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Iran’s Supreme Leader Congratulates Military
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates (Reuters) In observance of the national holiday
commemorating the Demise of the Prophet Muhammad and Martyrdom of Imam Hassan,
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sedeq Larijani commended all members of Iran’s Armed
Forces on their military and technical achievements. In a holiday video message
circulated to the military, the Ayatollah said that “Today, through the grace of Allah and
the diligence of our people, we can do things today that no one would have imagined.
Our necks are no longer under the boot of the Great Satan.”
Highlighting ongoing operations, including those against the Global Islamic Caliphate, he
said “We fight alongside our brothers in Syria and in Iraq. We plan and lead joint
operations with our partners from the world’s most sophisticated command center in
Baghdad. We defend vital maritime traffic against lawless pirates and other intruders. We
fly the newest fighter jets to destroy terrorists, and we will destroy anyone who flies over
our country without our permission.” Over the past decade, Iran has revitalized its military
with new weapons, especially from Russia, and learned to integrate them into real-world
operations.
The Ayatollah also commended strategic programs, including an apparent reference to
cyber warfare and Iran’s ability to receive intelligence from its own space-based imagery
satellites and from their partners, including Russia. “We see the enemy and know their
plans, and we are prepared.” He also referenced Iran’s growing offensive missile
program, which threatens cities and military bases throughout the Middle East. “Our
underground ballistic missile units are ready to strike should our enemies make a mistake.
We will erupt like a volcano from the very depths of the earth,” he said, likely referring to
the Iranian-produced Emad missile operated by an elite unit of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard.
Iran’s neighbors are especially wary of the
missile threat, given the lack of transparency in
Iran’s nuclear program. Under the terms of the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or
JCPOA, Iran agreed to eliminate its stockpile
of medium-enriched uranium, drastically
reduce its stockpiles of low-enriched uranium,
and reduce its number of centrifuges.
However, experts assessed years ago that
Iran’s longest-range ballistic missiles are designed to deliver nuclear warheads, and
ongoing upgrades and testing of these missiles have only served to reinforce those
judgments.

Stealth Networks, New Green Movement Keep Regime Atrocities in
Media’s Eye
(Spiegel.de) While the international community often speaks of the need to hold Iran
accountable for crimes against its own citizens, one small group of brave Iranians is
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already taking action. Iran’s New Green Movement (NGM) –
a handful of social media and information-technology savvy
“webizens” hopes to capitalize on what they describe as a
rapidly deteriorating quality of life for the average Iranian and
widespread disappointment regarding President Ghalibaf’s
inability to fulfill campaign promises. In Iran and abroad, NGM
members have built a communications network to spread the
word on what is really happening in their homeland.
The frustrations of average Iranians – that is, those without
connections to the regime and its privileged class – have
morphed into anger. NGM blogger SisterNeda, who keeps her true identity a secret,
reports from Tehran that “We can’t even gather in cafes or city squares anymore without
being watched. If too many of us get together at once, the Basij show up and, if we are
lucky, just make us go home. The regime says they help provide law and order during
these dangerous times, but they are nothing more than common criminals and thugs. It’s
hard to believe things have actually gotten worse, but they have.” This brave blogger,
who also writes of her affinity for the latest tech gadgets and Western fashions, has a
wide following among young Persians at home and abroad. “We just want a future. We
want jobs, even if our families aren’t “connected.’ We want to be able to save money and
have it be worth something. We respect our religion and our culture, but we want to be
treated like adults, not enemies of the state.”
Word of these developments is getting out to the rest of the world in spite of the regime’s
ongoing clampdown on internet and cellular communications. During protests, the volume
of Iranian internet and cellular traffic declines dramatically as a result of authorities moving
quickly to squeeze known network choke points. However, activists have adapted by
using independent satellite communication networks, VPNs and special software to hide
their true identities and locations and circumvent official networks. 1 No one knows for

1

Tor (previously an acronym for “The Onion Router”) is free software for enabling online anonymity and
resisting censorship. The software directs internet traffic through a free, worldwide, volunteer network to
conceal a user's location and usage from anyone conducting network surveillance or traffic analysis. Using
Tor makes it more difficult for Internet activity to be traced back to the user: this includes visits to Web sites,
online posts, instant messages, and other communication forms.
The term “onion routing” refers to application layers of encryption, nested like layers of an onion, used to
anonymize communication. Tor encrypts the original data, including the destination IP addresses, multiple
times and sends it through a virtual circuit comprising successive, randomly selected Tor relays. Each relay
decrypts a layer of encryption to reveal only the next relay in the circuit in order to pass the remaining
encrypted data on to it. The final relay decrypts the innermost layer of encryption and sends the original
data to its destination without revealing, or even knowing, the source IP address. Because the routing of
the communication is partly concealed at every hop in the Tor circuit, this method eliminates any single
point at which the communication can be de-anonymized through network surveillance that relies upon
knowing its source and destination.
For more info see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tor (anonymity network).

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sure, but it is estimated that thousands of Iranians inside the country’s borders may be
running “Mega-ToR” software, connecting them to supporters in the outside world.
NGM, Iran’s banned political reform movement, lives underground in Iran and has its
unofficial headquarters in Sweden. From his home in Stockholm, exiled former Iranian
Presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, now 83 years old, says he has no idea how
his followers communicate. But he also denied they were behind recent denial-of-service
attacks against Iranian government websites, which appear to be well-coordinated efforts
to shut down official servers by flooding them with traffic. Tehran’s response to the attacks
has been to accuse Washington of “more interference in not just Iranian, but Islamic
affairs in general. We will certainly not tolerate any kind of interference or invasion –
physical or virtual – on Iranian soil.”
While Mousavi is likely playing coy, rumors of Iranian authorities tampering with social
media traffic are rampant. Many bloggers are speculating that the government finds social
media useful as a way of monitoring protesters, gathering data on them and even tracking
them down. There are also signs that the Iranian government may be infiltrating social
media networks by spreading misinformation or otherwise manipulating it to its own
advantage.
These constant games of cat and mouse drag on out as many innocent Iranians are
suffering, if not losing their lives. We can only hope that the brave cyber warriors of the
New Green Movement – if that’s who our secret heroes really are – will be able to rally
the peaceful nations of the world to finally force meaningful change.

Syria to Apply for CSTO Membership
New York (AP) According to diplomatic sources, Russia has
convinced its longtime client Syria to apply for membership
in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO.
CSTO, a Russian-dominated military alliance that some say
has evolved as a counter to NATO, holds annual military
exercises that have traditionally emphasized anti-terrorism
missions.
Syria’s accession into CSTO would formalize the long-standing Russian-Syrian security
relationship, extend the organization’s reach to NATO’s southern flank, and increase the
stakes of an attack on Syrian soil. While the CSTO charter perceives aggression against
one signatory as aggression against all members, the decision to use force is reportedly
made on the basis of a ballot among member states. Current CSTO members are Russia,
Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

By the year 2025, the ToR user community is extremely agile and diverse, resulting in a family of highly
evolved “Mega-ToR” software.

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UAE Renews Call to Take Islands Dispute to Hague
ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates (Reuters) – On 29 December 2025, the Foreign
Minister of the UAE announced his country will take its dispute with Iran over Abu Musa
and the Greater and Lesser Tumb islands to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in
The Hague. The confirmation of new oil reserves in the area of Abu Musa – and Iranian
plans to begin drilling – have cast a new sense of urgency to this disagreement.
This territorial dispute between Iran and the UAE
has been brewing for over five decades. After
Britain announced in 1968 that it would
relinquish its hegemony in the Persian Gulf, Iran
moved to reclaim Abu Musa and several other
islands. In November 1971, one of the emirates
that would become part of the UAE and Iran
agreed to give some sovereignty to the former,
but allow the latter to station troops on the island.
The agreement also divided the island's energy
resources between the two signatories. In 1992,
Iran further increased its control by expelling
foreign workers who operated the UAEsponsored school, medical clinic, and powergenerating station.
Today, Iran administers Abu Musa as part of the province of Hormozgan. There are no
more than 2,500 inhabitants on the island, all of whom are Iranians.

Commercial Imagery Reveals “North Korea-Like” Conditions at Houthi
Internment Camp
(DigitalGlobe.com) Digital Globe, in conjunction
with Human Rights International, has documented
some of the most deplorable conditions on the
planet at the Al Hazm Internment Camp in Yemen.
This prison camp is administered by the
Government of Yemen, which was returned to
power by a Saudi Arabian-led coalition of Arab
nations. The Yemeni government insists that each
one of the over 60,000 Houthi prisoners at Al Hazm
is a “war criminal who presents a grave danger to
the security and stability of the state.” Citing these
security concerns, no independent organization
has ever been authorized access to the camp and no prisoner has ever been released,
making it nearly impossible to gather reliable information.
While the legal status of the prisoners has never been resolved in any international forum,
the conditions at the camp are inarguably in violation of international norms. Human
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Rights International, working with our experienced analysts, has determined the
infrastructure for water, food, sanitation, and shelter are inadequate to support human life
for the prisoners and identified mass graves in close proximity to the camp. What little
infrastructure exists at Al Hazm mainly supports the prison guards and administration.
For a full view of our findings, please visit our gallery at Digital Globe.com.

Saudi Arabia Conducts Routine Missile Readiness Drill
(Haarettz.com) Saudi Arabia conducted
an apparent missile readiness drill from
27-31 December. The exercise, which
was augmented by Pakistani technical
teams associated with Pakistan’s own
missile programs, tested the logistics,
security, and command and operational
procedures of the Royal Saudi Arabian
Air Force’s 96th Missile Wing, which is
based in Saudi Arabia’s central desert.
The 96th Missile Wing is equipped with
the Shaheen II medium-range ballistic
missile (also known as the Hatf-6), which was developed by Pakistan’s National Defence
Complex. The Shaheen II is a two- stage, road-mobile solid-fuel ballistic missile with a
range of 2500 kilometers. The Pakistani version of this missile is nuclear-capable, but
Saudi Arabia refuses to comment on speculation that it may have an arrangement with
Pakistan to either receive nuclear warheads for Saudi Arabian missiles or, alternatively,
have Pakistan deploy nuclear- equipped missiles on its behalf.
The Saudi Arabian Air Force acquired its fleet of Hatf-6/Shaheen II missiles sometime
during the mid-2010s. They replaced fifty 1980s-vintage Chinese-manufactured CSS2/DF-3s, which were believed to have been equipped with 2500 kilogram
conventional/high explosive warheads and capable of ranging 2,400 kilometers.

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USEUCOM
RUSSIA
Putin Announces Extension of Seabed Sovereignty in Arctic Region
On 26 December 2025 Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his country’s
intention to extend sea bed claims in the Arctic to include the entire Lomonosov Ridge.
The Lomonosov Ridge is an undersea structure running across the Arctic Ocean beneath
the pole, which Russia claims as a geological extension of the Russian region of Siberia.
In 2017 Moscow constructed a permanent scientific research platform in the Barents Sea
outside the polar ice cap to bolster its territorial claims. In a related press conference, the
Russian Energy Ministry announced the licensing of Russian oil and gas exploration
company, Rosneft, to conduct oil
exploration operations in the Arctic
Ocean. This announcement follows on
the heels of Russian patents which
claim to have perfected under-ice
drilling
and
seabed
pipeline
technology. If successful, these
technologies would enable year-round
Arctic petroleum exploitation. From
the UN to Greenpeace, reaction by
global environmentalists has been
overwhelmingly negative. Some fringe
groups
have
issued
internet
statements vowing to intervene in
spectacular fashion to prevent further
destruction of the environment.

Russians Flex Strategic Air Capabilities over the Arctic
(Washington Free Beacon, December 28, 2025) Russian strategic nuclear bombers
threatened U.S. airspace near Alaska earlier this month and NORAD jets responded by
intercepting the aircraft taking part in unannounced large-scale arctic war games,
according to defense officials. U.S. and Canadian F-22 and F-35 jets were involved in the
intercepts that took place near the Air Identification Zone surrounding Alaskan airspace
over the northern Pacific. According to the defense officials, the arctic bomber exercises
are part of Russian efforts to assert control over vast areas of the arctic circle that are
said to contain large mineral and oil deposits. In light of President Putin’s recent claim of
extended seabed sovereignty along the Lomonosov Ridge, analysts believe that these
Russian offensive military exercises in the arctic are aimed at Moscow’s efforts to
“emerge as the dominant arctic power by default.”

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Civil Unrest Surfaces in Kaliningrad
Kaliningrad, although an ethnic Russian exclave, over time has increasingly felt isolated
and ignored by Moscow. Throughout the last decade, public sentiment has grown that the
province is valued by Russia only for its military significance and the access to Baltic Sea
resources (Russia’s GAZPROM is active in large drilling activities in the Baltic). Although
the defense and energy sectors have provided employment stability in Kaliningrad,
Moscow has not invested in infrastructure, governance or public services. Often feeling
isolated by their separation from Russia proper, the people of Kaliningrad have looked
with increasing envy to the newly found prosperity the Baltic States and Poland have
realized since the end of the Soviet Era.
As government services languished, Kaliningraders have given voice to their
dissatisfaction through internet blog postings, letters to the editor and op-ed pieces in
local newspapers, and, beginning in the late summer and early fall of 2022, peaceful
street demonstrations. By the close of 2024, demonstrations organized by the recently
formed New Baltic Republican Party (NBRP) drew as many as 21,000 participants. The
NBRP is led by General (Retired) Grigor Altikov, the former Army Forces Commander in
Kaliningrad. General Altikov led the NBRP into the November 2025 regional elections
under the slogan, “Kaliningrad-The Fourth Baltic State.”
Exacerbating this unrest is the perception that Kaliningraders are being left behind while
the standards of living rise in the neighboring EU countries of Poland and Lithuania.
Outdoor protests have become more common and the media more open in their criticisms
of the central government. A special source of irritation continues to be incidents involving
garrison soldiers and Baltic Fleet sailors. Instead of addressing the source of the unrest,
Moscow has responded by placing tighter controls on the media and other methods of
public expression. It is widely believed that Moscow engineered frequent maintenance
interruptions on the Kaliningrad-Berlin EU gauge rail line during the summer months to
demonstrate its control over Kaliningrad. (Source: Strana Kaliningrad)

2025 Russian Elections
Distracted by activities in the Caucasus, Moscow was surprised by the results of the
November 2025 Kaliningrad Oblast Duma (or parliament) elections. In a public show of
dissatisfaction with their situation, Kaliningraders gave the NBRP a substantial majority
in the Duma. Wise in the ways of Moscow’s thinking, General Altikov ensured that the
NBRP closed out 2025 in a peaceful and low key manner, while beginning to work behind
the scenes for a 2026 initiative to break with the Russian Federation. Russian President
Vladimir Putin has sent stern warnings to the General and key NBRP leaders that any
talk of autonomy or independence is unacceptable. With the Duma investiture scheduled
in late January, tensions among Kaliningrad’s citizens remain high. (Source: RIA Novosti)

Russia’s GAZPROM Increases Drilling in Baltic
Russian oil giant GAZPROM increased drilling operations on platforms off the coast of
Kaliningrad despite loud protests from the Baltic States. In the past 10 years, environ20
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mental accidents resulting in oil pollution near the Kaliningrad enclave have become
regularly recurring events. Many in the region, particularly Lithuania, argue these
incidents have not been given due attention. Russia is benefiting from strong demand for
oil exports, but has not invested in the technology to prevent and clean up spills. Despite
this lack of environmental disaster preparedness and protests from the region, President
Putin gave GASPROM the green light to increase drilling and to speed up delivery of
crude to the Mazeikiai Crude Oil Refinery on the coast of Lithuania. (Source: RIA Novosti)

POLAND
PAL Suspected of Cyber Attack in Poland
The EU finance network was subjected to a DDOS (distributed denial of service) attack
causing internet banking operations to be disrupted for several hours. At 12:30 a.m. on 2
Jan 2026, suspected PAL cyber terrorists pulled off what might have been the perfect
computer crime. Beginning early that morning and continuing for nine hours, customers
who visited the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) website to pay bills on-line made
unexpected visits to computer servers in Latvia. The customers did nothing wrong; many
followed a bookmark or even typed in the web address manually, as security experts
advise. NBP, who represents Poland in the European System of Central Banks within the
EU organization, didn't violate any security protocol either. The company's computers
weren't hacked. Instead, criminals hijacked all traffic headed for the bill-paying service by
tricking the Internet's domain name server system, which links common website names
to their numeric equivalents. As a result, the NBP on-line bill paying website had to
suspend operations to over 5 million customers until the problems were corrected.
Customers will also be notified by mail that they might have been victims of identity theft,
though the number of visitors actually affected by the scam was probably closer to 1
million, according to Poland’s National Office of Privacy Protection. (Source: Der Spiegel)

Poland Continues Plans to Host Spring NATO Exercise Series
On 29 December, the Polish Defense Ministry confirmed that plans are progressing to
host exercises with the NATO Response Force in March and April 2026. While details
about the scope of the exercise have not been released, unidentified sources indicate
that this will be a brigade level exercise with air elements and interface with a likely
accelerated BALTOPS Naval Exercise. While allied planners in Belgium have minimized
this event as “routine training operations,” Russian and Belarusian officials have
characterized the plans as unnecessarily provocative, and have vowed to watch
developments closely.

Russian Gas Exports to Poland Curtailed
Just as the harsh Polish winter settled into Warsaw, an unexplained disruption of natural
gas supplies from the Russian Energy Giant GAZPROM occurred on New Year’s Eve.
GAZPROM indicated that technical difficulties from a distribution hub near the
Poland/Belarus border restricted deliveries by as much as 40%. With average January
temperatures of -4C, many Warsaw residents are facing an uncomfortably cold New Year.
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The Polish government has filed an official protest at the Russian embassy over what it
sees as a breach of contract in the delivery of vital energy resources. The Russian Energy
Ministry has issued a statement that the interruption was due to mechanical issues that
were being corrected as quickly as possible with the emphasis being on the safe
restoration of service.
Poland has worked for years to reduce its dependence of Russian energy resources, and
this incident has led many in Europe to speculate that Moscow is flexing its energy muscle
to demonstrate the power it holds over key NATO/EU countries. Some in the defense
communities have even proposed that Moscow was making a very material statement on
its displeasure over the continued, vibrant role that NATO plays in Europe. Officials in
Belarus had no comment on the situation, citing it as a Russia/Poland problem.

LITHUANIA
Government to Challenge Russian Baltic Oil Exploration
On 3 December 2025 the Foreign Minister announced plans to challenge Russian drilling
in the Baltic on grounds of ecological damage, excessive pumping and border
encroachment. As significant portions of Baltic Sea oil are processed through facilities in
Lithuania, many see this as a move by Lithuania to seek energy price concessions and
improved royalty sharing from the Russian Energy Ministry.
The Lithuanian transportation industry announced on 20 December 2025 a €10billion
bond issue for infrastructure improvements, including modernization of rail lines which
connect Kaliningrad to Russia through Belarus. (Source: Lithuanian government press
releases)

BELARUS
Hunger Relief Assistance Needed
The Center on Hunger and Poverty, headquartered at The Heller School for Social Policy
and Management, Brandeis University, has identified Southern Belarus as one of the
three neediest areas on the European land mass for hunger relief assistance. About onefifth of Belarusian land (principally farmland and forests in the southeastern provinces)
was ruined by radiation fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster and the health
and economic impact on inhabitants of these areas has been slow to recover. President
Lukashenka’s state-controlled economy has been unable to provide enough welfare
support to improve conditions significantly. (Source: RFE/RL)

BALKANS
Severe Weather Forecasted
On 28 December 2025, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather (ECMWF)
released an updated forecast for south-central Europe. Meteorologist Dr. Nigel DixonMarshall, head of forecasting, reported the high probability of unusually heavy snowfall
over the next several across the entire Balkans region as well as the mountainous regions
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in Romania and Bulgaria. Dr. Dixon-Marshall said the daily snowfall amounts could
exceed 35-60 centimeters for several days at a time.
The ECMWF has detected a developing winter storm pattern that would result in weekly
multi-day blizzard-like snowfall for as long as four-to-six weeks before conditions might
improve. Snowfalls of this sort would exceed the record snowfall of the winter of 2017 that
resulted in numerous deaths attributed to the snowfall followed by catastrophic springtime
flooding in the Balkans. Updates to the ECMWF storm prediction model made in 2020
have greatly increased the accuracy of snowfall predictions leading regional leaders to
express concern over the possibility of a devastating spring flooding season. (Source:
Sarajevo Times)

ARMENIA/AZERBAIJAN
Incidents Increase along Line of Contact
The relative quiet that had persisted over the past few months along the usually volatile
line of contact between Karabakhi-Armenian forces and the Azeri army was broken on
the morning of 1 January 2025 by a protracted firefight along the southern section of the
line east of the town of Fizuli. The incident lasted nearly two hours and consisted mainly
of small arms fire. The Azeri news media reported the death of three Azeri soldiers, with
five more wounded in the altercation. Armenian news accounts did not cite any casualties
on the Karabakhi side.
This incident was followed two days later by a more severe incident along the Line of
Contact east of Agdam. While this incident began with small arms fire, it quickly escalated
into an artillery exchange that lasted almost an hour. This time there were reports of
casualties on both sides of the line, however specific figures were not made public.
The representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France and the United States –
released a statement calling for calm and promised to visit the region to “help ensure that
there is not a reoccurrence of these provocative incidents.” Representatives of the
governments of Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States joined other nations in calling
for an immediate return to negotiations to resolve this ongoing conflict. Representatives
of Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan blamed each other for initiating the incidents;
however given the lack of neutral observers along the line of contact, it is almost
impossible to identify how these incidents began.
Although this conflict has been confined within the bounds of a fairly stable cease-fire
agreement since 1994, it is well known that each side continues to advance their
entrenchments toward each other along the entire length of line of contact, and incidents
of this type occur on a fairly regular basis, although mostly at a low-level. It has been rare
that they escalate to the point that artillery or other heavy weapons are employed. While
they acknowledge that this is pure conjecture, a few prominent Caucasus analysts are
beginning to speculate that senior elements in the Azeri military might be spoiling for a
fight. (Source: RFE/RL)

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NATO
Announcement of a Late Winter BALTOPS
NATO’s 3 January announcement of a late winter start to the annual BALTOPS Maritime
Exercise, startled many observers. This combined Maritime/Air/Amphibious exercise has
traditionally been conducted in warmer months. Though originally planned for a MarchApril timeframe, during a press conference at SHAPE Headquarters, Admiral Giovanni
Garibaldi (ITN) explained, “NATO must maintain the ability to respond at any time and in
all climates. This year’s BALTOPS is designed to exercise the ability of the Alliance to
operate in the harsh winter climates experienced by so many members.”
Russian and Belarusian reaction to the announcement have been limited to an expression
of interest in exchanging military observers. When questioned, the Belarusian Defense
Minister indicated no plans to react defensively, but stressed that the annual Zapad-262
combined military exercise with Russia was in its final planning stages. (Source: NATO
Press Release)

2

Stikipedia Notation on the ZAPAD Exercise Series: Exercise Zapad (Russian: Запад, literally meaning "west")
was the largest military exercise ever to be carried out by the Soviet Union. It was a joint operation including elements
from all Soviet service branches. The exercise was first and foremost a show of force with extensive propaganda tapes
made of the large scale offensives and the final victory parade. Additional Zapad Exercises were conducted in
1999 and 2009 and included large forces from both Russian and Belarusian militaries. Advertised as “nonpolitical” events, the exercises have frequently been scheduled to coincide with large scale NATO events.
The Zapad series became institutionalized in 2015 and frequently includes elements from other former
Soviet republics. Traditionally, the Zapad exercises have been held in Belarus, although in 2016 and 2017
the exercise was held in Russia near Belgorod, a move largely interpreted as an attempt to influence
Ukraine’s push for EU/NATO membership.
The exercise typically involves 5,000-6,000 Russian servicemen and 7,000-8,000 Belarusian servicemen,
as well as up to 40 aircraft.

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USPACOM
North Korea
Biochemical Threat
The South Korean Defense Ministry stated in a
report issued on 10 January that North Korea
maintains a stockpile of 2,500 to 5,000 tons of
chemical-warfare agents and 13 pathogens with
the potential to be weaponized. According to a
report to lawmakers, Pyongyang is among the
major national holders of biological and chemical
weapons. Among the viruses and germs alleged
to be in the North's arsenal are smallpox, cholera,
yellow fever and typhoid fever.
As the world's attention focuses on Pyongyang’s nuclear program, analysts are worried
the international community will miss the more imminent threat posed by the country's
biochemical arsenal. Analysts say at least 30% of North Korea's missile and artillery
systems are capable of delivering such weapons. With each successive test, they warn,
the regime’s missiles improve in accuracy and range. (Source: The Chosun Ilbo)

North Korea Port Expansion Supports China Trade
North Korea’s largest port, Nampho, plans another
expansion to handle trade with China. The state-run
Nampho Port Authority expects to build another new
container pier by 2026 to more than double container
cargo volumes. (Source: The Pacific Times)

China
China and Cuba Exchange Military Advisors
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Cuban
Revolutionary Armed Forces (CRAF) announced
recently plans to expand joint basing and training.
Chinese military advisors are working with the Cuban
Revolutionary Armed Force at their bases in Santiago
de Cuba and Bejucal, and in a rare event open to
international press, a company of the CRAF Army
boarded a Chinese transport plane to conduct two
months of training with the PLA in Mongolia.

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Chinese State Oceanic Administration detains Japanese Captain and Crew
In an unprecedented move, and with the implicit blessing and protection of the Japanese
government, Teikoku Oil shifted its operations from one of persistent geological
exploration dedicated to documenting oil resources in the East China Sea, to establishing
the first production well in the area. Teikoku Oil dispatched its state-of-the-art production
drill ship, Chikyu, despite an ongoing dispute with China over the exact layout of the
Exclusive Economic Zones in the area.
As the Chikyu approached the drill site, three Chinese fishing vessels attempted to block
its progress. The actual chain of events remains unclear; however, an altercation broke
out between the Chinese vessels and the Chikyu. Two Chinese State Oceanic
Administration vessels in the vicinity received the Chinese call for aid and responded by
detaining the Japanese captain and the entire crew.
The Chikyu is a deep-sea drilling vessel belonging to the Japan Agency for Marine- Earth
Science and Technology. (Source: FNN News TV, Tokyo)

Guanxi Autonomous Region Growing
The Guangxi autonomous region borders Vietnam.
Sometimes called the Shangri-La of China, it's a
place of rivers, rice terraces, and fog- enshrouded
mountains. Home to a large population of ethnic
minorities, Guangxi is one of China's poorest
regions. And yet the capital city of Nanning
(population nearly 3 million) has a skyline dotted
with construction cranes. Giant apartment towers
rise up everywhere and the downtown streets are
full of new shops.
Investment money rains down on Guangxi from the central and local governments for
highways, port development, power plants and airport construction. The area is thriving
since a free-trade agreement was enacted between China and the ASEAN nations
(including Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Indonesia), turning Guangxi into a prospering
trade corridor. Migrants are flocking to the capital Nanning for work. The successful ones
swapped their plots of land in the country for apartments in those empty towers.
However, Guangxi has difficulties sustaining a growing middle class. There's some
industry here – metal fabrication, auto parts, machinery – and a few cash crops like
tobacco and sugar. But Guangxi accounts for a tiny proportion of China’s overall
production. And these low-skilled production jobs are being squeezed by a flood of illegal
immigrants from the area around Hai Phong, Vietnam. As claims of discrimination of the
Hoa, ethnic Chinese living in Vietnam, rise, they are increasingly looking north across the
border for better conditions in China.
A possible recent border altercation and increased political tensions between China and
Vietnam, over the Spratly and Paracel Islands, threaten the continuation of the free trade
pact. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)
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Upstream Dams Threaten Mekong River
China is building the world’s highest arch dam on
the Lancang River (the Chinese name for the
Mekong River) in Yunnan Province. The Xiaowan
Dam is scheduled for activation in April of this year
and will create a 15 billion cubic-meter reservoir
over an area of more than 190 square kilometers.
Construction was originally scheduled for
completion in 2023 but was delayed several times
as Vietnam petitioned China to contribute to
funding for an automatic dike system to control
water flows.
Environmentalists claim this new dam, in conjunction with other recently constructed
dams in China, will create environmental and agricultural disaster along the length of the
once-mighty Mekong River. The water capacity of Xiaowan Dam equals the total volume
of all the natural lakes of Southeast Asian countries, according to a United Nations report
released in 2022 The dam is being built to supply energy at a cost of US$2.7 billion for
the Xiaowan hydropower plant which will be able to generate more than 4,000 megawatts
of electricity. (Source: The Wall Street Journal)

Japan
New Foreign Minister Speaks of More Muscular Security Role
Last week, in a speech focused on China’s growing energy demands, Japan’s new
foreign minister Taro Agawa argued for greater “normalization” of Japanese foreign
policy. By normalization, he means Japan should better protect its energy interests by
taking on a more robust security role even if it requires amending or at least reinterpreting
Japan’s pacifist constitution. (Source: Asahi Shimbun Daily News)

Indonesia
Merchant Vessel Beset by Pirates
On January 20th, a merchant vessel was boarded by pirates and diverted from its course
through the Strait of Malacca (SOM) to a small port along the coast of Sumatra. By the
time Indonesian authorities arrived, the pirates already offloaded several crates
containing small arms and explosives before abandoning the ship, leaving it adrift with
the crew bound and locked in a compartment. The Indonesian government initiated an
investigation, but has not linked the incident to any known group. As founding members
of MALSINDO, both Indonesia and Malaysia publically stated they have the ability to
eliminate piracy in the SOM. Moreover, any U.S. intervention would be considered an
infringement of their sovereignty. (Source: The Strait Times)

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Taiwan
Taipei Requests International Assistance for Upcoming PRC Exercise in
the Strait of Taiwan
Taipei is calling China’s intent to establish a
Maritime Operations Zone in the Strait of Taiwan
(SOT) an attempt to place a strangle- hold on
Taiwan and bring it to its economic knees.
Taiwan is requesting international assistance to
prevent China from interrupting free flow of
commerce in the SOT during its April military
exercise. The PLAN claims the shutdown of the
SOT is necessary to provide safety during a livefire missile exercise. Taipei is reaching out to
trade partners to speak out at the UN about the risk to regional, and possibly, world peace
if China conducts this major live-fire exercise. (Source: Taiwan Daily)

Recent Local Elections Have National Significance
Winter elections for municipal executives and councils were a significant boost for both
the Chinese New Party (CNP) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), both of which
are making great gains at the expense of the Kuomintang (KMT) party. The CNP openly
supports direct reunification with the PRC. The DPP, while not directly supporting
reunification as a platform position, consistently shows majority support for reunification
in internal polls. The outcome of the winter elections served as an important indicator of
the relative electoral strength of these two new leading parties and the direction of the
ongoing national political transformation. (Source: CNN)

India
Security Increased at Indian Nuclear Sites
Indian nuclear installations in the states of Uttar
Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra were placed on
high alert after the January 15th arrest of a suspected
Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group member at the Indira
Gandhi International Airport, Zee News reported. An
intelligence advisory notice said Bhabha Atomic
Research Centre near Mumbai may be a primary
target. Security has also been increased in the coastal
states. (Source: The Indian Times)

India and Taiwan Look to Enhance Bilateral Trade
Stating that the bilateral trade potential of the two nations had not been fully tapped,
Taiwan’s Ambassador to India Tuesday said both India and Taiwan should join hands in
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the field of IT/software, hardware, electronics, automotive components, food processing,
agri-technology and education to build international brands.
“We are working with the Indian government for working out an Economic Cooperation
Agreement (ECA), on the lines of free trade agreement (FTA), to pep up the trade
volumes and economic cooperation between the two nations. We have the capital and
hardware and can work hand in hand with Indian IT and software companies to build an
international brand for India. We have great strengths in the food processing sector and
India needs induction of technology in this areas as nearly 40 per cent of its fruits and
vegetables go waste after harvesting. We could also help India in the field of agriculture
with higher yields per acre. Taiwan has one of the highest per acre yields and this is
especially important in light of the Food Security Bill passed by Indian Parliament which
could entail enhanced food grains output.”
The Abassador said Taiwan had a strong education base and the cost of education was
almost half to what one has to pay in US and European countries. “We have universities
which are recognized among the top 100 institutions of the world. We feel India as a huge
nation and its strategic location provides massive opportunity. We want to make India as
a major manufacturing hub working through each other’s strengths,” he added. (Source:
The Hindu Times)

India Announces April Naval Exercise
An Indian government official made a public statement. The statement indicated India
would hold a major air and naval exercise off the Andaman Islands near Burma in April
and requested participation from the United States, Australia, Singapore, Malaysia, and
Thailand. While not unprecedented, this may be the largest deployment of Indian forces
this far to the east in the last ten years. (Source: NDTV)

China Angered over Indian PM Border Visit
On Tuesday China expressed anger over a recent visit by the Indian Prime Minister to a
border region China claims as its own. “China is strongly dissatisfied with the visit to the
disputed region by the Indian leader, who disregarded China's serious concerns,” a
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said in a statement.
Analysts report the lesson for the West and India is that China is now watching every
Indian official action in eastern India with the same intensity it watches any outside
measures judged as enhancing the independence of Taiwan. (Source: The Indian Times)

Myanmar
Officials Concerned over Possible North Korean Nuclear Materials in Burma
Officials in the International Atomic Energy Agency are concerned that nuclear material
has been transferred to Myanmar from North Korea. For several years, suspicions have
swirled about the nuclear intentions of Myanmar. Myanmar was thought to be cooperating
with North Korea on possible nuclear procurements. Myanmar’s ties to North Korea, and
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apparent eagerness to procure high technology goods, make a convincing case that they
have procured nuclear material. (Source: Institute for Science and International Security)

Malaysia
Middle East-Malaysian Financial Links may be Funding Terrorist Activities
U.S. intelligence officials suspect Malaysian front companies are being used to funnel
money from the Middle East to terrorists in Southeast Asia. This would not be the first
occurrence in recent history. Prior to 11 September 2001, al Qaeda funneled funds
through the country to procure weapons and bomb-making material. During the initial few
years after 9/11 these financial front companies, when discovered, were disassembled
by the Malaysian government. However, there was never any lasting resolve to disrupt or
prevent future occurrences. With the Malaysian government lifting or easing travel and
financial restrictions over the past several years, terrorist networks found they could
reestablish bases of operations with little government resistance. (Source: Honolulu Star
Advertiser)

Thailand
On January 17th, a suicide bomber killed 13 and injured
34 in The American Club on Soi Happy, Phuket. Police
report a young male entered the popular night club and
immediately walked onto the dance floor where he
shouted “Allahu Akhbar” and activated a vest bomb. Of
the 13 killed, four were U.S. service members and
seven were U.S. civilians. (Source: DOD Press
Release)

Vietnam
Vietnam, United States to Expand Military Links
On 22 January, the United States and Vietnam agreed to further expand their defense
links, specifically establishing routine port visits, conducting naval exercises, and sending
Vietnamese military officers to the U.S. Naval War College. This is seen as a logical step
in the maturing relationship between these two countries.
Since the normalization of relations in 1995, the two countries have taken steps on
defense cooperation, including visits by U.S. Navy ships to Vietnamese ports, as both
eye the rise of Chinese influence in the region. According to a Pentagon statement,
“shared previous successes in demining, military medicine and operations related to
missing U.S. service members have already contributed to moving forward with
expanding cooperation in peacekeeping, search and rescue, humanitarian assistance
and disaster relief.”
However, Peter Kurrimane, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International
Studies in Washington and a former president of the U.S.-Association of Southeast Asian
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Nations (ASEAN) Business Council, cautioned on Sunday’s broadcast of “Meet the
Press” that “The United States and Vietnam must move slowly toward further defense
cooperation in part because of their history and also to avoid antagonizing China.” He
further warned, “You don’t want to provoke the Chinese.” The U.S.-ASEAN Business
Council seeks to advance trade links between the United States and ASEAN nations.
(Source: The Washington Post)
Possible Border Incursion between China and Vietnam
A video is circulating on the popular Vietnamese video sharing site, Clip.vn, of what
appears to be troops and light vehicles of China’s People’s Liberation Army exchanging
fire with the Vietnam People’s Army near their mutual border. Neither Vietnam nor the
Chinese issued official statements regarding the altercation, and the video is not
independently confirmed by any local authorities. (Source: CNN)

Terrorism
Statement by Jemaah Islamiyah Spiritual Leader
A videotaped statement by Jemaah Islamiyah’s (JIs) senior
spiritual advisor, Abdullah Bayar, was broadcast by a regional
Muslim television network in late December. In the video Abdullah
states the ultimate goal of JI is a Greater Islamic Caliphate in
Southeast Asia and he appeals to all followers of Islam to join the
effort to rid the region of the western infidels. Further, Abdullah
clarifies that the only way to drive out evil foreign influence is to
“increase their bloodshed both physically and economically.”

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