SAN JUAN COUNTY DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 135 Rhone Street, PO Box 947, Friday Harbor, WA 98250 (360) 378-2354 I (360) 378-2116 I FAX (360) 378-3922 cdp@saniuonco.com MEMO TO: County Council Planning Commission CC: Mike Thomas, County Manager Colin Maycock, AICP, Planner IV Nick Peihl, GIS Program Coordinator FROM: Erika Shook, AICP, Director, Linda Kuller, AICP, Planning Manager, SUBJECT: 2036 Comprehensive Plan Update: Draft Land Capacity Methodology DATE: October 12, 2017 BRIEFING: Council: October 16, 2017 Planning Commission: October 20, 2017 ATTACHMENTS: Draft Land Capacity Analysis Methodology Issue: Briefing on the draft Land Capacity Analysis Methodology, Appendix 1 of the Comprehensive Plan. The briefing will include a story map demonstration using Eastsound Urban Growth Area as an example. Background: The Growth Management Act (GMA) allows counties to exercise discretion in their comprehensive plans and to make choices on how they plan to accommodate growth over the twenty-year planning horizon. Conducting a land capacity analysis is an important step in determining how and what growth can be accommodated through the year 2036. The land capacity analysis will help determine if the County?s land supply aligns with the 2036 population growth projection of 19,423. The primary purpose of the LCA is to determine the capacity of Urban Growth Areas for balancing urban development with adequate and cost-efficient urban services. However, because the majority of development in the County occurs outside of the the LCA will help the County evaluate the development potential of rural and natural resource lands. The LCA is also used to determine whether the County will have sufficient developable land to meet the GMA housing goal. This goal encourages the availability of affordable housing to all economic segments of the population, promotes a variety of residential densities and housing types and encourages preservation of existing housing stock. RANGE Cnmp_Plan\Public Recordland Capacityland Capacity The draft LCA methodology includes a high level overview and detailed descriptions of the LCA steps and assumptions. It identifies how data and calculations will be documented and mapped. Briefing Purpose: To receive comments on the draft methodology. Public Comments: We welcome comments on the draft. How to Comment: 1. Marking up a copy of the section needing revisions or additions, or 2. Sending specific written comments. For example: I Page X, Line should read or . Please add to page X, Line after the second sentence. Send Comments: To or Drop them off at DCD, 935 Rhone Street, or Mail them to: SJC Dept. of Community Development, Attn. Linda Kuller: Land Capacity Methodology, PO Box 947, Friday Harbor, WA 98250 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Recon?Land Capacity-\Land Capacity COMPREHENSIVE PLAN Appendix 1 LAND CAPACITY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY October 11, 2017 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Record\Land Capacity\Land Capacity Analysis\2017-10? Draft Land Cap_Methodology.docx TABLE of CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction 3 2.0 Terms 4 3.0 Methodology Overview 5 4.0 Land Capacity Methodology 4.A Prepare the LCA County Land Base and Gross Developable Land Inventory 7 4.3 Prepare An Inventory Of Net Developable Land 13 4.C Calculate Existing Floor Area Ratios, Summarize Development Trends, Assign Assumed Densities and FAR, and Calculate Pending Development Capacity 15 4D Calculate and Map Gross Housing and Development Capacity 18 4.E Calculate Final Capacity 21 TABLES Table 1. Land Capacity Categories: Thresholds Assumptions 8 Table 2. Basic Achieved Density Calculations by Development Type 16 Table 3. Achieved Density by Land Use Designation 16 Table 4. Pending Development Capacity 17 Table 5. Grows Housing Capacity by Land Use Designations 19 Table 6. Gross Commercial and industrial Land Capacity 20 Table 7. Gross Mixed-Use Capacity 20 2 RANGE Record\Land Capacity\Land Capacity 1 l?Ii?nu?tr?Ir?Av?tu?t MN HO 1.0 Introduction San Juan County?s 2036 Comprehensive Plan update process includes a Land Capacity Analysis (LCA). The Land Capacity Analysis methodology is described in this document. The Growth Management Act (GMA) allows counties to exercise discretion in their Comprehensive Plans and to make choices on how they plan to accommodate growth over the twenty-year planning horizon. Conducting a Land Capacity Analysis is an important Step in determining how and what growth can be accommodated through the year 2036. The Washington State Department of Commerce (Commerce), indicates that the Land Capacity Analysis methodology is used to determine: I The amount of vacant, partially-used, under-utilized lands, and redevelopment potential of built properties needed to accommodate growth, and I If the existing or potential Urban Growth Areas can accommodate twenty years of urban growth. The Land Capacity Analysis will help determine if the County?s land supply aligns with the 2036 population growth projection of 19,423. The primary purpose ofthe Land Capacity Analysis is to determine the capacity of Urban Growth Areas for balancing urban development with adequate and cost-efficient urban services. However, because the majority of development in San Juan County occurs outside ofthe Urban Growth Areas, the Land Capacity Analysis will help the County evaluate the development potential of rural and natural resource lands. The Land Capacity Analysis is also used to determine whether the County will have sufficient developable land to meet the Growth Management Act housing goal. This goal encourages the availability of affordable housing to all economic segments of the population, promotes a variety of residential densities and housing types and encourages preservation of existing housing stock (RCW This report defines terms, provides a high level overview ofthe Land Capacity Analysis methodology and details the Steps and assumptions of the Land capacity Analysis. It identifies deliverables of the various Steps ofthe analysis and documentation ofthe necessary calculations through the use of GIS maps, metadata, and Excel tables. RANGE Recordland Capacityland Capacity y?I 2.0 TERMS. The following terms are used in this methodology: Vacant means property with minimal or no building improvements. Re-developable means a parcel that has a land use designation that allows uses that would be more intensive than an existing use a single family home on a parcel with a commercial land use designation). Partially-used means residential property occupied by a use allowed by its land use designation which contains enough land to be further subdivided or developed a single? family home on a very large lot). Fully developed means property that is assumed to have no further development capacity. Floor Area Ratio (FAR) means the total building square footage divided by total lot square footage. RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Recordland Capaciiyland Capacity UJUJDJUJUJUJUJLDUJN ooqunbwlin-oxo ONO 4:3- h-h-P-lk-h-ih 3.0 Methodology Overview The bullets below provide a high level overview of the Land capacity Analysis methodology: Prepare the Land Capacity Analysis County Land Base and Develop a Gross Developable Land Inventory (GDLI) and GIS Map Layers Assessing land supply begins with the identification of all parcels within the County that are fully developed, vacant, partially-used, re-developable, or public, utility conservation. The Gross Developable Land Inventory includes parcels which are vacant, partially used or re?developable and are potential candidates to accommodate future growth. This parcel based inventory is based upon the Assessor?s land use codes and data from March 3, 2017, the most current information. All parcels are categorized. Two map layers (GIS shapefiles) are produced: I The first layer categorizes all parcels as fully developed, public/conservation, vacant, partially-used, or re?developable. This layer is the Land Capacity Analysis Land Base. I The second layer identifies all parcels categorized as vacant, partially used or re- developable and are assumed to have further development capacity. The second map layer of potentially developable land is the Gross Developable Land Inventory. Prepare an Inventory of Net Developable Land for Residential and Commercial, Industrial and Mixed-use Lands The net developable land inventory is determined by deducting areas with reduced development potential such as critical areas and their buffers from the Gross Developable Land Inventory. Gross Developable Land Inventory - Critical areas, buffers and other undevelopable areas Net Developable Land Deliverables: Two map layers (GIS shapefiles): I The first layer depicts the net developable residential land. I The second layer depicts the net developable Commercial, Industrial and Mixed- Useland. These layers show the [and expected to be available to accommodate future growth before other deductions are made. This information is provided by island, and land use designations. RANGE Comp_Plan\Puinc Recordland Capacilyland Capacity \om?qmu?thD?l UJUJ 00 545-5 43-5-53 OOKJON Calculate Existing Floor Area Ratios, Summarize Development Trends, Assign Assumed Densities and FAR, and Calculate Pending Development Capac?y. This section provides analysis of past development trends in order to provide a basis for estimating future development capacity; to determine if development is occurring consistent with Comprehensive Plan densities; and to calculate pending development. The information gathered in this Step will be used in the capacity calculations. This Step will: I Analyze recent development history, achieved densities and assign assumed densities; I Provide data necessary to convert available land into capacity in terms of dwelling and square feet of building on each parcel; and I Calculate pending development capacity. Calculate and Map Gross Housing and Development Capacity The Net Developable Land Inventory (in acres) is converted into capacity for housing units for residential land and building square feet for commercial, industrial, and mixed-use land. This work is conducted in GIS and Excel. This results in tables and GIS map layers showing capacity by parcel. The purpose of this exercise is to graphically display capacity at the parcel level. The capacity calculated in this Step will not be the final capacity because it is not converted to population and does not include deductions for public uses, market factors, and seasonal/recreational home factors. Deliverables: I Net Developable Land Inventory maps for residential land categorized into housing capacity ranges (dwelling units), and I Net Developable Land Inventory maps for commercial, industrial and mixed use lands categorized into building capacity ranges (square feet). I Excel tables of the Preliminary Housing and Development Capacity calculations summarized by island, land use designation, and urban growth areas. Calculate Final Housing and Development Capacity The summary tables of the preliminary housing and development capacity calculations created in the previous Step are the basis of the Final Capacity Calculations. Public use, market and seasonal/recreational home factors are deducted from the preliminary housing and development capacity. After these deductions, the following are calculated: - Total Occupied Housing Units by Land Use Designation - Total Population Capacity - Employment Capacity (square feet of building) RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Recordland CapacilytLand Capacily p?4 mm 3-D.) UJLJJ WU.) #b-b-h-b-h-D-Aw 4.0 Land Capacity Analysis (LCA) Methodology Prepare the Land Capacity Analysis County Land Base and Gross Developable Land Inventory Assessing land supply begins with the categorizing of all parcels within the County as fully developed, vacant, partially used, and re-developable, or public, utility, and conservation as identified in Table 1. This results in the Land Capacity Analysis Parcel Base GIS layer. The subset of this layer consisting of all vacant, partially?used and re?developable parcels is the Gross Developable Land Inventory. The Gross Developable Land Inventory is calculated by deducting all parcels categorized as fully developed from the Land Capacity Analysis Parcel Base. LCA Parcel Base - Fully developed parcels - Public, utility and conservation parcels Gross Developable Land Inventory The San Juan County Assessor?s county?wide parcel data in shapefile format and the associated attribute data including improvement value and land value from March 3, 2017 (the latest data update) is used. Parcels with structures existing on March 3, 2017 are considered developed. Structures proposed, built, or occupied after that date are counted in future capacity calculations. GIS shapefiles for each island, Lopez Village and Eastsound the Town of Friday Harbor, and all of the County land use designations are used. Steps A.1. Create a GIS layer that consists of all county parcels and includes fields for area, assessor land use code, assessed value of improvements, land use designation, Comprehensive Plan density and Land Capacity Analysis category. A.2. Consistent with the assumptions in Table 1. Gross Developable Land Inventory: Thresholds and Assumptions and using the Assessor?s land use codes and Comprehensive Plan land use designations categorize each parcel as: I Fully developed residential; I Fully developed industrial, commercial or institutional; I Fully developed mixed?use; I Public and conservation lands; I Vacant and subdividable residential; I Vacant non-subdividable residential; I Partially-used residential; I Vacant industrial or commercial; I Vacant mixed-use; RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Recordland Capacilyland Capacity I I Re?developable industrial or commercial; or 2 - Re-developable mixed-use. 3 4 A3 All parcels categorized as fully developed or public/conservation lands are deducted from 5 the LCA Land Base. The result of this initial cut is a collection of all the parcels in the 6 County that are vacant, partially?used or re?developable. This is the Gross Developable 7 Land Inventory. The Gross Developable Land Inventory is the base from which additional 8 acreage is deducted to account for various physical and regulatory constraints on future 9 development. 10 1] Gross Developable Land Inventory GIS layer of all parcels that are not fully developed. l2 13 This map layer depicts categories ofthe County?s parcels and includes fields for land use 14 and density designation, the Assessor? land use codes, improvement value, and land area. 15 i9 Table 1. LCA Categories: Thresholds and Assumptions LCA CATEGORY DEFINITION THRESHOLDS A. Land Use Designations Fully Developed . Residential Agricultural Resource (AG) Parcels In these land use desngnations are (No further development Forest Resource (FOR) considered fully developed if the followmg potential) Conservancy (C), Rural Residential criteria apply: (RR), Rural Farm Forest (RFF) a The assessed improvement value is Village Hamlet $10,000; Em ReSIdentIal, (HR), Lopez Village Residential (LVR) b. The ratio of allowed density to parcel Eastsound Residential (ER) size is 051% Eastsound Rural Residential (ERR) Eastsound Rural c. Site developed with multi-family use Village Residential/lnstitutional (Assessor code 1200-1300) in any Olga Hamlet Residential (OHR) designation and the building to land Deer Harbor Hamlet Residential value ratio) is >1'0 (DHHR) Orcas Village Residential (OVR) B. Fully Developed Industrial, Assessor's land use codes Parcels in these Assessor's codes are fully Commercial 1400-1488 Accommodations developed if the following criteria apply: (No further development 1600 Hotels/motels potential) 1700 Institutional lodging a. The site is developed with existing 2100 Food and kindred products industrial, commercial or non- 2200 Textile Mill Products residential use per the Assessor?s codes; 2400-2403: Lumber/wood products 2500: Furniture/fixtures 2600: Paper and Allied products b. The ratio of building value to land value 2700: Printing and publishing ratio) is 2800: Chemicals 2900: Petroleum refining/ related c. Existing development, such as gas 3100: Rubber misc. plastic products stations, quarries or uses preclude 3200: Stone, clay and glass significant additional development on 3300: Primary metal industries the site, regardless of ratio. 3400: Fabricated metal products 3500: Prof. Scientific Instruments USEILONG RANGE Comp_PIan\Public RecordtLand CapacilytLand Capacity Analysis\2017-10-1 LCA CATEGORY DEFINITION THRESHOLDS 3900: Misc. Manufacturing 4100: Railroad and Transit 4200: Motor vehicle transportation 4300: Aircraft transportation 4400: Marine transportation 4600: Automobile parking 4700 Communications 4900: Other transportation 5000: Non-residential condos 5100: Wholesale trade 5200: Building hardware farm 5300-5320: General merchandise 5400-5403: Retail food 5500-5503: Retail-auto, marine, aircraft 5600: Apparel 5700-5708: Retail furniture and home furnishings 5800: Retail- Eating and drinking 5900: Other retail 6100: Finance, insurance real estate 6200-6220: Personal services 6300: Business services 6400-6402: Repair services 6500-6503: Professional services 6600 Contract construct. services 6900-6902 Miscellaneous services 7100: Cultural activities 7200-7202: Public assembly 7300: Amusements 7400?7420: Recreational activities 7500: Resorts and group camps 7900: Other recreational 8100-8328: Agriculture 8400: Fishing and related services 8500: Mining activities 8600: Marijuana grow operation 8900: Other resource production RANGE Comp__Plan\Public RecordtLand Capacityland Capacity LCA CATEGORY DEFINITION THRESHOLDS Public, Utility Conservation (No further development potential) Assessors Land Use Codes: 7600: Parks 4800?4820: Utilities 6800-6820: Educational services 6700-6793: Governmental services 9240: Open space with conservation easement 9243: Open Space with conservation easement and clock 9520: Current Use Timber land with a conservation easement 4820: Utility with conservation easement 6820: Educational services with conservation easement 7420: Recreational activities with conservation easement 8120: Agriculture with Conservation Easement 4500: Highway right-of-way 7400-7420: Recreational activities 8800-8820: Designated forest land Parcels are considered fully developed public, utility and conservation lands if the following criteria apply: a. Properties with land uses listed by the Assessor?s codes as Public, Utility and Conservation; o_r b. The parcel is on the GIS layers of public lands and County Parks and Open Space Vacant and Sub-dividable Residential Land Use Designations Agricultural Resource (AG) Forest Resource (FOR) Conservancy (C) Rural Residential (RR) Rural Farm Forest (RFF) Village Residential (VR) Hamlet Residential, (HR) Lopez Village Residential (LVR) Eastsound Residential (ER) Eastsound Rural Residential (ERR) Eastsound Rural Village Residential/Institutional Olga Hamlet Residential (OHR) Deer Harbor Hamlet Residential Orcas Village Residential (OVR) *With several densities Parcels in these land use designations will be considered vacant and sub- dividable if they meet the following criteria: a. The assessed improvement value is $10,000; b. The ratio of allowed density to parcel size is 5 0.5. RANGE Comp_Plan\Publirz RecordlLand Capacityland Capacity LCA CATEGORY DEFINITION THRESHOLDS Vacant Non-Subdividable Land Use Designations: Parcels in these land use designations Residential Agricultural Resource (AG) will be considered vacant but not sub- FOFEST Resource (FOR) Conservancy dividable if they meet the following (C) criteria: Rural Residential (RR), a. The assessed improvement value I age es: en la Hamlet Residential, (HR) '5 510?000? Lopez Village Residential (LVR) Eastsound Residential (ER) b. The ratio of allowed density to Eastsound Rural Residential (ERR) parcel size is 05? Eastsound Rural Village Res/institutional Olga Hamlet Residential (OHR), Deer Harbor Hamlet Residential (DHHR) Orcas Village Residential (OVR) *With several densities F, Partially-Used Residential Land Use Designations Agricultural Resource (AG) Forest Resource (FOR) Conservancy (C) Rural Residential (RR) Rural Farm Forest (RFF) Village Residential (VR) Hamlet Residential, (HR) Lopez Village Residential (LVR) Eastsound Residential (ER) Eastsound Rural Residential (ERR) Eastsound Rural(ER*) Village Residentia /lnstitutional Olga Hamlet Residential (OHR) Deer Harbor Hamlet Residential (DHHR) Orcas Village Residential (OVR) *With several densities Parcels in these land use designations are considered partially-used if they meet the following criteria: a. The assessed improvement value 2 $10,000;? b. The ratio of allowed density to parcel size is 0.5. 11 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Record?xLand Capaciiyland Capacity LCA CATEGORY DEFINITION THRESHOLDS Vacant Industrial and Commercial Land Use Designations: Rural Industrial (RI) Island Center(lC) Rural Commercial (RC) Orcas Village Transportation (OVT) Orcas Village Commercial (OVC) Rural General Use (RGU), Village Commercial (VC) Village Industrial (VI) Hamlet Commercial (Hamlet Industrial) Service Light Industrial (SLI) Service Park (SP) Country Corner Commercial Eastsound Marina (EM) Eastsound Airport (EA) Olga Hamlet Commercial (OHC), Olga Hamlet Community Cntr. (OHCC) Deer Harbor Commercial (DHC) Deer Harbor Industrial (DHI) Parcels in these land use designations are considered vacant if the: Assessed improvement value is $10,000. Vacant Mixed?Use Eastsound Village Commercial (EVC) Lopez Village Commercial (LVC) Parcels in these land use designations are considered vacant if the assessed improvement value is $10,000. Re-Developable Industrial and Commercial An assumption is that existing use may be demolished and new project developed over the planning period. Industrial, Commercial, Institutional Rural Industrial (RI) Island Center(lC) Rural Commercial (RC) Orcas Village Transportation (OVT) Orcas Village Commercial (OVC) Rural General Use (RGU) Village Commercial (VC) Village Industrial (VI) Hamlet Commercial (Hamlet Industrial) Lopez Village Institutional (LVI) Service Light Industrial (SLI) Service Park (SP) Country Corner Commercial Eastsound Marina (EM) Eastsound Airport (EA) Olga Hamlet Commercial (OHC) Olga Hamlet Community Center (OHCC) Deer Harbor Commercial (DHC) Deer Harbor Industrial (DHI) Parcels in these land use designations are considered re-developable if they meet the following criteria: a. The ratio of building value to land value is 1.0; They are occupied by a single family residence (Assessor?s codes 1100-1199). Re-Developable Mixed-Use Eastsound Village Commercial (EVC) Lopez Village Commercial (LVC) Parcels in these land use designations are considered re-developable if one of the following conditions are met: a. The ratio of building value to land value is 51. The parcel is occupied by a single family residence. (Assessor?s codes 1100-1199). RANGE PROJECTSIPCOMPL-17-UOO1 Comp_Plan\Puinc RecordILand Capacilyland Capacity Analysist2017-10-1 B. Prepare an Inventory of Net Developable Land 2 3 The Net Developable Land Inventories are obtained by deducting critical areas, buffers, and ?51 other areas with reduced development potential from the Gross Developable Land Inventory. 6 Gross Developable Land Inventory 7 - Critical Areas and areas with reduced development potential (Residential) 8 Residential Net Developable Land Inventory 9 10 Gross Developable Land Inventory 11 - Critical areas, buffers and areas w/reduced development potential (Commercial, Industrial) 12 Commercial, Industrial and Mixed-Use Land Inventory 13 14 There are two layers because different deductions from the Gross Developable Land Inventory 15 will be taken to create each layer based on the following assumptions: 16 17 Critical area buffers will not affect future capacity on residential parcels and are not 18 deducted because the San Juan County development regulations allow for reasonable 19 use exceptions and flexible development of residential properties with critical areas on 20 them. 21 22 Critical area buffers are not be developable on commercial, industrial and mixed-use 23 parcels because development regulations for these uses are more restrictive. These uses 24 are also more intensive than residential uses. 25 26 St_ep_s 27 28 3.1. Create the Critical Area Deduction GIS layer (shapefile) consisting of all critical area 29 deductions described as follows: 30 31 Critical Area Deductions 32 33 Wetlands: The County?s possible wetland inventory. 34 35 Streams: The County?s base stream dataset with stream centerlines and an assumed 36 35 feet of non-buildable area on either side of the centerline, corresponding with 37 Tree Protection Zone 1 (TPZ 1) per SJCC Table 18.35.130?2. 38 39 Steep Slopes: Areas with slopes greater than 50 percent which are considered Category 40 1 geo-hazards. Development in these areas is limited per SJCC 1835.065. 41 42 Flood Plain: Land located within loo-year floodplains as shown on the Federal 43 Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), April 2017, Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS. 44 45 Other Undevelopable Areas: Mitigation and old dump sites that are not available or suited 46 for development. 47 13 USEILONG RANGE Comp_PIan\Public Recordland CapacityILand Capacily 1 B.2. Create the Total Net Developable Land Inventory by deducting critical areas from the 2 GDLI. In GIS, overlay the Critical Area Deduction layer on the Gross DeveIOpable Land 3 Inventory and clip the Gross Developable Land Inventory. The result will be the Gross 4 Developable Land Inventory with critical areas removed. This layer is the Total Net 5 Developable Land Inventory. 6 7 8.3. Create the Residential Net Developable Land Inventory by selecting residential vacant, 8 partially used and re-developable parcels from the Total Net Developable Land Inventory. 9 The layer resulting from this selection is the Residential Net Developable Land Inventory. 10 11 3.4. Create the Critical Area Buffer Deduction GIS layer (shapefile). Create a GIS layer of 12 critical area buffers as follows: 13 14 a. A 150 foot wetland buffer because most of the County?s wetlands are Class or Class 15 IV and industrial and commercial uses are designated high intensity uses (SJCC 16 18.35.095 and Tables 18.35.100?2 and and 17 18 b. The following Tree Protection Zone buffers on parcels with a shoreline FWHCA (SJCC Tables 18.35.100-2 GD 21 i. 110 feet from the centerline for Type (Type 2 or 3) streams and ponds 22 designated as FWHCAs (assuming an 8 foot wide stream); 23 II 110 feet from the Ordinary High Water Mark (OHWM) for marine shorelines 24 containing FWHCAs and ponds, excluding parcels subject to the Eastsound 25 Waterfront Access Plan or parcels within approved master planned resorts; 26 50 feet from the bank full width for Type Np (Type 4) streams; 27 IV. 30 feet from the bank full width for Type Ns (Type 5) streams; and 28 30 feet from the bank full width for un-typed streams. 29 30 3.5. Create the Commercial, Industrial and Mixed-Use Net Developable Land Inventory as 31 follows: 32 33 a. Select vacant, partially used and Re-developable Commercial, Industrial and Mixed? 34 Use parcels from the Total Net Developable Land Inventory created in 3.2. 35 36 b. Overlay the Critical Area Buffer Deduction layer over this selection and clip to remove 37 the critical area buffers. The resulting layer will be the Commercial, Industrial and 38 Mixed Use Net Developable Land Inventory. 39 RANGE Comp_PIan\Puinc RecordILand CapacitylLand Capacity p? 45-h .5). C. Calculate Existing Floor Area Ratios, Summarize Development Trends, Assign Assumed Densities and Floor Area Ratio and Calculate Pending Development Capac?y This section provides analysis of past development trends in order to provide a basis for estimating future development capacity; to determine if development is occurring consistent with Comprehensive Plan densities; and to calculate pending development. To calculate future capacity on vacant, partially-used and re-developable parcels, the Land Capacity Analysis must use assumptions about how much development is expected on each parcel in the future. Analysis of existing built conditions, achieved densities, and development trends provides the data necessary to forecast future development. This analysis will also account for pending development which is a more accurate predictor of future densities. Later, achieved densities and building intensities will be used to calculate the future capacity of available land. . Analyze recent development history and achieved densities and assign assumed densities, . Convert information into dwelling units per acre and building intensity Floor Area Ra?o,and . Calculate pending deveIOpment capacity C.1 Calculate Existing Building Floor Area Ratios by Land Use Designation One method to calculate future capacity on Commercial, Industrial and Mixed Use parcels is to assume future Floor Area Ratios will be similar to Floor Area Ratio as past development. This information will be used in Step C3 to determine future assumed Floor Area Ratio. For commercial, industrial and mixed-use parcels, Floor Area Ratio is good measure of how much building capacity exists on a parcel. Floor Area Ratio is a good measure because it accounts for parking, sewage disposal and other site improvements that affect capacity but vary widely by use and from site to site. The capacity of a commercial, industrial or mixed?use parcel is the assumed future Floor Area Ratio multiplied by the area ofthe parcel. The following are the Steps to calculate the average existing Floor Area Ratio by land use designation: a. Select all parcels from the Land Capacity Analysis Land Base layer that are fully developed and are Commercial, Industrial or Mixed-use land as defined by Table 1. Add a field for Floor Area Ratio for each parcel. b. Using Assessor building improvement information for the parcels selected in Step A, calculate the ratio of total building square feet to lot area for each parcel. This results in a floor area ratio for each parcel. 15 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Record\Land Capacilymand Capacity i?Iy?Iu?Ir?db?de?aHs?AvFAR Total building area (square feet) Parcel area (square feet) c. Average the floor area ratio for each land use designation and export to an Excel table. C.2 Summarize Recent Development Trends The results of Step C.1 above will provide an average Floor Area Ratio for all Commercial, Industrial and Mixed-Use parcels as of March 3, 2017. This average will include buildings constructed under many different land use and building regulations, and therefore may not be accurate for forecasting into the future if regulations have changed and significantly altered the amount of development that is allowed. In order to check the reliability ofthe averages developed in CI, the Land Capacity Analysis must also evaluate development that occurred within the recent past to see if there are other development trends to consider. Ten years of County development history (April 1, 2005 April 1, 2015) is evaluated to determine the actual densities achieved in all land use designations and Urban Growth Areas Department of Community Development staff performs this analysis using permit files. Table 2. Basic Achieved Density Calculations by Development Type DeveIOpment Type Achieved Density Calculation Single Family Residential Plats Number of Lots Plat Area Multi-family Building Permits and Plats Number of Units Site Area Mixed-Use Building Permits Residential Portion Number of Units/ Residential Portion of Site Mixed?Use Building Permits Commercial Portion Commercial Floor Area Commercial Portion of Site Commercial and Industrial Building Permits Total Floor Area (main building)/ Site Area Create an Excel table and compile data from permit files as follows: Table 3. Achieved Density by Land use Designation Parcel Land Use Permit Plat area or Pending lots Pending Pending building Achieved Achieved Designation lot site area (Number of lots housing units square feet FAR Density (SF) approved) (Number (5F approved) (DU/acre) approved) Source: DCD permit data April 1, 2005- 2015 16 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public RecordILand Capacilyland Capacity Analysis\2017-10-1 NM \000 *Assign Assumed Density and Floor Area Ratios (FAR) Each land use designation will be assigned an assumed density for the purposes of calculating capacity. For residential capacity, the Comprehensive Plan land use designations and densities are the future assumed densities. For commercial and industrial building intensity, existing average Floor Area Ratio by land use designation will be used. For mixed-use intensity, an assumed density and Floor Area Ratio will be used based on achieved densities. Different assumptions may be used ifthere is a clear and compelling rationale for deviating from these designations. The following factors would be considered in deviating from the assumed densities: recent achieved densities; land use goals and policies; local circumstances such as development plans and pending development; and any other local market or policy conditions that are likely to impact future development densities. C.4. Calculate Pending Development Capacity This Step accounts for pending development which is a more accurate predictor of future density than assumed densities. It involves compiling parcels with approved multi-family permits, commercial and industrial binding site plans, and preliminary and final plats that were not constructed by March 3, 2017 (last date of Assessor?s update). This includes Master Planned Projects that are not completely built out but that have received preliminary approval for a number of dwelling units or commercial and industrial square footage. These developments will be considered pending capacity and will be added to the final land capacity for each parcel during the final capacity calculations. For this analysis, the development records for all multi-family, commercial, industrial, binding site plans, and preliminary and final plats approved since January 1, 2010 that were not finalized prior to March 3, 2017 are compiled including: 0 Residential preliminary and final approved plats and short plats; Multi-family building permits; 0 Assessor?s county-wide parcel data in shapefile format; and 0 Commercial and industrial building permit activity and binding site plans. Create an Excel table and compile data as follows: Table 4. Pending DeveIOpment CapacityParcel Land Use Permit if Plat area or Pending lots Pending Pending building Achieved Achieved Designation lot site area (Number of lots housing units square feet FAR Density (SF) approved) (Number (SF approved) (DU/acre) approved) Source: DCD permit data April 1, 2005-2015 and GIS shapefiles 17 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public Recordland Capacilyland Capacity p??p?I u?no GUI .rsmm 0000 43.43- #43 ADJ 4543A \?lChL/x Deliverables: Excel tables that summarize the following by land use designation and island: 0 Achieved densities; - Achieved floor area ratios; 0 Existing floor area ratios; 0 Recommended assumed densities to be used in Step and 0 Pending development capacity to be used in Step D. D. Calculate and Map Gross Housing and Development Capacity The purpose of this Step is to graphically display capacity at the parcel level. This work is conducted in GIS and producesmaps showing capacity by parcel. The Net Developable Land Inventory (in acres) is converted into capacity for housing units on residential land and building square feet on commercial, industrial and mixed?use land. The capacity calculated in this Step will not be the final capacity because it will not be converted to population and will not include deductions for public uses, market factors, and seasonal/recreational home factors. Those deductions will be taken to obtain final capacity in Step E. The following conversion factors as modified by Step C3 are used in this Step: a. Density allowed by Comprehensive Plan land use designation for residential, and b. Average existing floor area ratio for fully developed commercial and industrial by land use designations. Determine Gross Housing Unit Capacity Gross Housing Unit Capacity is derived from the Residential Net Developable Land InventOry developed in Step 8.3. The output will be total dwelling units of capacity available on each parcel. These calculations use: I The Residential Net Developable Land Inventory; Assumed densities for residential land use designations; and Pending development capacity. 0.1 Using GIS, multiply the net developable acres of residential developable land on each parcel by the assumed density (DUs/acre) for each land use designation. The output will be the Total Dwelling Unit Capacity available on each parcel before accounting for existing development on partially-used and re?developable parcels. 02 Subtract existing dwelling units on partially-used and re-developable parcels by land use from the capacity calculated in the previous Step so that existing units are not counted as part of partially-used or parcel capacity 18 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public RecardtLand Capacilyland Capacity Nh?l p?an?nb?I D.3 Earlier in the process, parcels with pending developments were set aside. These parcels D.4 included preliminary or final plats, permits, and binding site plans for developments that have received preliminary approval but have not been constructed by March 3, 2017. Master Planned Projects that have not been completely built out but have received approval for a certain number of dwelling units are also included. The estimated capacity in these developments is more accurate than calculated theoretical capacity. Add these pending housing units to the parcels on which they occur. Using GIS and the Residential Net Developable Land Inventory, calculate capacity for each parcel using the following fields and export to Excel table: Table 5. Gross Housing Capacity by Land Use DesignationsParcel Area Land Use LCA Category Comprehensive Plan Existing Pending Housing Capacity Number Designation Density (assumed Housing Housing (Housing Units) (Vacant, Re- density) Units Units deveIOpable, Partially used (We) - OR G-F (if pending Determine Commercial and Industrial Land Capacity Capacity to accommodate future commercial or industrial growth is derived from the net developable area in commercial and industrial land use designations. This work requires the following data: The Commercial and Industrial Net Developable Land Inventory created in Step 3.5; Assumed Floor Area Ratio values for commercial and industrial designations created in Step Assessor?s data for re?developable parcels; and Pending commercial and industrial development from Step C4. D5 Multiply net acres of commercial and industrial land in each land use designation by the D.6 D.7 assumed Floor Area Ratio for each land use designation. The output will be the Total Square Footage Capacity available in each land use designation before accounting for existing development on re?developable parcels. Summarize total existing commercial and industrial building square footage on parcels by land use designation. Subtract this square footage from the totals from the previous Step so that existing buildings are not counted as part of re-developable parcel capacity. Earlier in the process, parcels with pending developments were set aside. These parcels included commercial and industrial permits or binding site plans for developments that have received preliminary approval but had not been constructed by March 3, 2017. Master Planned Projects that have not been completely built out but have received 19 RANGE Comp_Plan\Public RecordtLand Capacilyland Capacity 1 approval for a certain amount of commercial/industrial square footage are also included. 2 The estimated capacity in these developments is more accurate than calculated 3 theoretical capacity. Replace theoretical capacity on each parcel with actual capacity 4 from Step C4. The output will be total commercial and industrial square footage capacity 5 available in each land use designation. 6 7 Deliverables: 8 9 I Map layers (GIS Shapefiles) of the Net Developable Land Inventory parcel map of 10 commercial, industrial, and mixed-use lands including the following fields in the attribute 11 table: 12 13 Table 6. Gross Commercial and Industrial Land CapacityParcel Area Comp Plan LCA Category Assumed Existing Pending Floor Building Number Land Use (Vacant, re- Floor Area Total Floor Area Capacity Designation developable Ratio Area (Square Feet) etc.) OR (If pending>0) 14 15 . Net Developable Land Inventory parcel map of mixed use lands including the following 16 fields in the attribute table: 17 18 Table 7. Gross Mixed-Use CapacityParcel Area Land use Category Assumed Comprehen Existing Existing Pending Pending Building Housing Capacity designation (Vacant, Floor sive Plan total Housing Floor housing capacity (Housing Units) redevelop- Area Density or floor Units Area units (Square able etc.) Ratio Achieved area Feet) Densities OR OR J-H (if pending>0) (if pending 19 20 21 Excel Tables for County?Wide Capacity and Capacity for Each Island Depicting: 22 23 1. Totals of residential acreage and capacity (housing units) by land use designation; 24 25 2. Totals of residential acreage and capacity by category (vacant, partially used etc.) and 26 by land use designation; 27 28 3. Totals of commercial and industrial acreage and capacity (building square feet) by 29 land use designation; 30 31 4. Totals of commercial and industrial acreage and capacity by category (vacant, partially 32 used etc.) and by land use designation; 33 20 RANGE Comp_Flan\Public RecordlLand Capacityland Capacity Totals of mixed-use acreage and capacity (building square feet) by land use designation and category (vacant, partially used etc.); and 6. Totals of mixed-use acreage and capacity (housing units) by land use designation and category (vacant, partially used etc.). M395 1. Residential Net Developable Land Inventory with parcels categorized in housing capacity ranges; 2. Commercial and Industrial Net Developable Land Inventory parcel maps with parcels categorized in building capacity ranges; 3. Mixed Use Net Developable Land Inventory maps of mixed use lands with parcels categorized in building capacity ranges; 4. Mixed Use Net Developable Land Inventory maps with parcels categorized in housing capacity ranges. E. Calculate Final Capacity Conduct the Final Capacity calculations using the Excel tables created in Step D, Gross Capacity. Add a new column to the tables to include the Final Capacity numbers. The Final Capacity column reflects the gross capacity from Step minus the capacity deductions described below: Deduct Capacity to Account for Public Use, Market, Seasonal/Recreational Home Factors Public Use Factor The Public Use Factor is a deduction to account for the lands that may be used for public purposes, such as road right-of?ways, utility corridors, public pathways and other lands set aside for public uses. A public use factor of five percent will be deducted. Market Factor The market factor is a deduction to account for lands that will not be available for development during the planning period. It is expected that over the 20?year planning period some lands will be kept off the market due to speculative holding, land banking, and personal use. A market factor of twenty-five percent ofthe Developed Land Inventory will be deducted to account for the land that is not available for development during the planning penod. Seasonal/Recreational Home Factor The 2010 US Census indicated that 35 percent ofthe houses in the County were categorized as seasonal/recreational, or occasional use properties. Recent comparisons of the 21 RANGE Comp_PIan\Public Record\Land Capacityland Capacity .hbJN ONLII p?Ii?t C) MN Lu 4; NM population increases and finalized residential building permits indicate that between 2010 and 2016 approximately one and one half (1.5) housing units were built for each new resident. An additional deduction of twenty?five percent of the gross housing capacity will be deducted to account for the recreational home market. E.1 To each Excel tables developed in Section F, add columns for ?Public Use Deduction?, ?Market Factor?, ?Seasonal/Recreational Home Factors?, ?Capacity Deduction?, ?Occupied Housing Units?, ?Total Population Capacity? and "Final Building Capacity?. E.2 Add the following factors to the tables in Step as applicable: A 5 percent public use factor for all designations; For vacant residential designations: a 25 percent market factor, plus an additional 25 percent seasonal, recreational or occasional use home factor; For partially-used residential parcels: a 25 percent market factor and an additional 25 percent seasonal, recreational or occasional use home factor; For vacant commercial or industrial land use designations: a 25 percent market factor; and For a re-developable commercial or industrial parcels: a 25 percent market factor. E.3 A market factor will be applied to Master Planned Resorts as a proportionate share based on the ratio of developed to undeveloped areas within the Master Planned Resort. See Section C. E4 E5 In the "Capacity Deduction? column calculate the total amount of capacity to be subtracted based on Steps 6.2 and 6.3. Calculate the Total Occupied Housing Units by Land Use Designation. To convert dwelling units into occupied housing units use the following data on occupancy rates and average household sizes: Apply occupancy rate assumptions for the County by using best available data from Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM) and/or the US Census. Seasonal housing is considered vacant according to Census definitions. These housing units are not included in the occupied housing unit category and are not folded into Census calculations of average household size. Multiply the total housing units of capacity in each land use designation by the occupancy rate assumption. The output will be total occupied dwelling units in each land use designation. Add this result in a column to the table modified as part of Step 1 called "Occupied Housing Units?. 22 RANGE Comp_PIan\Public RecardlLand Capacityland Capacity E.6 Calculate the Total Population Capacity. In the "Total Population Capacity? Column, subtract "Capacity Reduction? from the ?Housing Capacity? column and multiply the result by the average household size for the County which is 2.04 to calculate ?Total Population Capacity?. E.7. Calculate Employment Capacity. In the "Total Building Capacity? column, subtract ?Capacity Reduction? from the ?Building Capacity? column to calculate "Total Building Capacity.? Deliverables: Excel Tables for County-Wide Final Capacity and Final Capacity for Each Island Depicting: 1. Totals of residential acreage and final capacity (housing units and population) by land use designation; 2. Totals of residential acreage and final capacity by category (vacant, partially used etc.) and by land use designation; 3. Totals of commercial and industrial acreage and final capacity (building square feet) by land use designation; 4. Totals of commercial and industrial acreage and final capacity by category (vacant, partially used etc.) and by [and use designation; 5. Totals of mixed-use acreage and final capacity (building square feet) by land use designation and category (vacant, partially used etc.); and 6. Totals of mixed-use acreage and final capacity (housing units) by land use designation and category (vacant, partially used etc.) 23 RANGE RecordiLand Capacityland Capacily