This Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted by telephone September 28-October 2, 2017, among a random sample of 1,121 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including landline and cell phone interviews with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points. The error margin is 3.5 points among the sample of 1,000 registered voters and 4.5 points among the sample of 720 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Cambridge, Mass. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) RV=Registered voters LV=Likely voters 1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following this year’s governor’s race in the state of Virginia: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all? ---- Closely -------- Not closely ----No NET Very Smwt. NET Not so At all opinion 10/2/17 RV 58 18 40 41 18 23 * 5/14/17 RV 56 15 40 44 20 24 * 10/27/13 RV 79 33 46 21 10 10 * 9/22/13 RV 68 25 44 31 19 12 * 5/2/13 RV 48 10 38 52 27 25 * 10/25/09 LV 89 39 50 11 9 2 * 10/7/09 LV 87 33 54 13 11 2 * 9/17/09 LV 84 34 51 15 12 4 * 8/14/09 LV 67 25 42 32 23 9 1 8/14/09 RV 48 17 32 51 30 21 * 10/26/05 LV 87 31 56 13 10 2 * 9/9/05 LV 73 20 53 27 20 7 * 9/9/05 RV 59 15 44 41 26 15 * 8/23/01 RV 60 16 44 39 26 13 1 8/27/00 RV 61 21 40 38 25 13 * 6/23/94 RV 74 27 47 27 18 9 * 2/3/94 73 27 46 27 18 9 * 9/93 RV 68 21 47 31 21 10 * *2009 and earlier: Would you say you are following this year’s governor’s race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? 2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the November governor’s election: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 10/2/17 10/27/13 9/22/13 5/2/13 RV RV RV RV Certain to vote 60 64 60 67 Probably vote 19 14 19 15 Chances 50/50 11 11 12 11 Less than that 8 8 8 6 Don't think will vote (vol.) 1 1 1 1 Already voted (vol.) * 1 0 0 No op. * * * * 1 10/25/09 10/7/09 9/17/09 8/14/09 9/9/05 10/25/01 8/23/01 8/27/00 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV 60 53 53 61 68 63 68 76 16 20 19 16 18 19 16 14 13 15 16 13 9 10 10 7 6 9 9 7 4 5 5 2 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 * NA NA NA NA NA NA 1 1 1 * 0 1 * * 3. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Ralph Northam, the Democrat) and (Ed Gillespie, the Republican), and Cliff Hyra, the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 10/2/17 10/2/17 LV RV Ralph Northam 53 48 Ed Gillespie 40 38 Cliff Hyra 4 5 Other (vol.) * * Would not vote (vol.) 2 Neither (vol.) 1 2 No opinion 2 5 4. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE) Will you definitely vote for (NAMED CANDIDATE), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for someone else? IF CHANCE COULD CHANGE MIND: (Would you say there’s a GOOD CHANCE) you'll change your mind, or (is it pretty unlikely)? Definitely vote for 10/2/17 LV 72 Support Northam 75 Support Gillespie 71 -Chance change mind NET Good Unlikely 25 8 17 22 8 14 27 6 21 10/2/17 RV Support Northam Support Gillespie 33 28 35 64 68 62 12 8 13 No opinion 3 3 2 21 20 22 3 3 3 Note: Sample size of Hyra supporters too small to report results. Compare to: Definitely vote for -Chance change mind NET Good Unlikely No opinion McAuliffe: 10/27/13 LV 9/22/13 LV 5/2/13 LV 84 73 75 15 24 25 5 7 6 10 17 19 1 3 1 Cuccinelli: 10/27/13 LV 9/22/13 LV 5/2/13 LV 74 77 59 23 20 37 6 5 16 17 15 21 3 3 4 5. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS WHO CHOSE HYRA) If the only candidates for governor were (Ralph Northam, the Democrat) and (Ed Gillespie, the Republican), for whom would you vote? NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE AMONG ALL VOTERS 10/2/17 10/2/17 5/14/17 LV RV RV Ralph Northam 54 49 49 Ed Gillespie 41 39 38 Other (vol.) * * * Would not vote (vol.) 1 2 2 Neither (vol.) 2 4 2 No opinion 3 5 9 2 6. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Generally speaking, do you have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of (NAME)? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? 10/2/17 – Summary table among registered voters a. Ralph Northam b. Ed Gillespie ------- Favorable ------NET Strongly Somewhat 44 20 24 38 14 24 ------ Unfavorable -----NET Somewhat Strongly 28 13 15 37 19 17 No opinion 27 25 Trend: a. Ralph Northam 10/2/17 RV 10/30/16 LV 44 9 20 2 24 7 28 13 13 7 15 5 27 79 b. Ed Gillespie 10/2/17 RV 10/30/16 LV 38 20 14 4 24 16 37 16 19 10 17 6 25 64 7. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) What is the most important issue in your choice for governor – (the economy), (health care), (education), (illegal immigration), (Confederate monuments), (the environment) or something else (SPECIFY)? 10/2/17 RV Health care 28 The economy 26 Education 19 Illegal Immig. 10 The enviro. 4 Confed. Monuments 3 Something No else opin. 9 2 8. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Who do you think would do a better job making needed compromises across party lines, (Northam) or (Gillespie)? 10/2/17 RV Northam 41 Gillespie 31 (Vol.) Both equally 1 (Vol.) Neither 6 No opinion 21 9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Will one reason for your vote for governor be to express (support for) President Trump, to express (opposition to) Trump, or is Trump not a factor in your choice? 10/2/17 RV Support 17 President Obama: 9/22/13 RV 15 10/25/09 LV 14 Opposition 28 Trump not a factor 54 19 15 65 70 No opinion 1 1 * 10. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How much, if at all, do you think Ed Gillespie supports President Trump – a great deal, a good amount, not very much, or not at all? 10/2/17 RV --------More-------Great Good NET deal amount 56 23 33 ----------Less---------Not Not NET very much at all 17 12 5 No opinion 27 11. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) As you may know, the candidates in November’s election for Attorney General include (Mark Herring, the Democrat) and (John Adams, the 3 Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for (Herring, the Democrat) or (Adams, the Republican)? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 10/2/17 10/2/17 LV RV Mark Herring 52 50 John Adams 41 39 Other (vol.) * * Would not vote (vol.) 1 2 Neither (vol.) 1 3 No opinion 5 6 On another subject, 12. Do you think things in the state of Virginia (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)? 10/2/17 5/2/13 5/2/12 5/4/11 8/14/09 10/8/07 10/12/06 10/26/05 9/9/05 8/23/01 8/27/00 6/23/94 2/3/94 LV LV RV RV RV RV Right direction 44 52 49 52 47 52 67 70 65 59 71 53 55 Wrong track 46 36 44 39 45 43 30 25 31 34 22 38 36 No opinion 10 12 6 9 7 5 3 5 4 7 7 8 9 13. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Generally speaking, how would you rate the economy in your part of the state: excellent, good, not-so-good or poor? 10/2/17 RV ----Excellent/Good---NET Excellent Good 68 12 56 ----Not so good/Poor---NET Not so good Poor 31 23 9 No opinion 1 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 10/2/17 5/14/17 -------- Approve ------NET Strongly Somewhat 33 18 15 36 20 16 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 59 11 48 59 8 52 No opinion 8 5 NET 57 opinion 4 Compare to national: NET Strongly 9/21/17* 39 26 *Washington Post-ABC News Somewhat 13 Somewhat 9 Strongly 48 15. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Since Trump was elected, would you say your opinion of him has become (more positive) or (more negative)? 10/2/17 More positive 26 More negative 60 Stayed the same (vol.) 13 No opinion 2 On another subject, 4 16. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Some people have proposed banning all abortions expect in the cases of incest, rape or to save a pregnant woman’s life. Do you support or oppose banning all abortions except in these cases? 10/2/17 RV Support 37 Oppose 55 No opinion 8 Moving on, 17. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) In Virginia, do you think monuments to leaders of the Confederacy in the Civil War should be (removed from) government property or (kept on) government property? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? 10/2/17 RV White Black Other nonwhite ---------Removed--------NET Strongly Somewhat 31 21 11 25 15 10 50 40 11 38 24 14 ----------Kept----------NET Somewhat Strongly 57 14 44 67 14 53 32 10 22 47 17 31 No opinion 11 8 18 15 18. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you think displaying Confederate monuments [ITEM], or not? How about [NEXT ITEM]? IF NEEDED: Do you think displaying Confederate monuments [ITEM], or not? 10/2/17 – Summary Table among registered voters Yes No No opinion a. defends slavery in the U.S. before the Civil War White Black Other nonwhite 30 22 52 39 59 68 33 49 11 10 15 12 b. honors leaders who should be respected for their role in U.S. history White Black Other nonwhite 63 69 49 52 29 23 43 36 8 7 8 12 c. is offensive to African Americans White Black Other nonwhite 46 40 63 50 41 45 29 38 13 15 8 12 19. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) In the past few years, have you had a frank conversation about issues related to racial equality or prejudice with someone who is African American, or haven’t you done this? 10/2/17 RV White Black Other nonwhite Yes 66 65 72 65 No 33 35 28 34 No opinion 1 1 0 1 20. (AMONG NON-BLACK REGISTERED VOTERS) In the past few years, have you had a frank conversation about issues related to racial equality or prejudice with someone who is [respondent’s race] or haven’t you done this? 5 10/2/17 RV White Other nonwhite Yes 78 80 67 No 22 20 33 No opinion * * 0 20a. (AMONG BLACK REGISTERED VOTERS) In the past few years, have you had a frank conversation about issues related to racial equality or prejudice with someone who is NOT African American or black, or haven’t you done this? 10/2/17 RV Yes 67 No 33 No opinion 0 21. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Now turning to immigration…Is illegal immigration a problem in your part of the state, or not? IF PROBLEM: is it a very serious problem or only somewhat serious? 10/2/17 10/8/07 RV RV -------Problem------NET Very Somewhat 35 14 21 53 21 32 Not a problem 59 35 No opinion 6 12 Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or what? 10/2/17 5/14/17 10/30/16 8/14/16 10/27/13 9/22/13 5/2/13 10/26/12 9/16/12 5/2/12 Democrat 34 34 30 31 32 33 28 31 32 31 Republican 24 24 24 21 24 24 26 23 24 25 Independent 32 33 36 37 31 33 33 36 35 36 Other 6 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 5 5 No op. 5 3 5 3 7 5 4 3 4 2 ***END*** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government. The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish and is a random sample of Virginia adult residents. The sample of 1,121 adults was drawn through a combination of Random Digit Dialing (RDD) procedures of landline and cellular phones in Virginia (621 interviews) and sampling from a database of Virginia registered voters maintained by Aristotle, Inc., in which voters have been matched to landline and cellular phone numbers (500 interviews). The sample frames were de-duplicated, with phone numbers existing on the voter list frame not eligible for selection through Random Digit Dialing. In the RDD sample, interviewers called landline and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. In the voter file sample, interviewers asked to speak with the person identified on the voter registration file by name. The total sample included 286 interviews on landlines and 835 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 464 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. 6 This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for characteristics of the sample design and deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who were interviewed through the RDD and voter list samples based on the size of each frame. Results are also weighted to match the demographic makeup of the population according to the latest American Community Survey by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education and by region of Virginia, and the National Health Interview Survey by telephone usage. In addition, the sample is weighted to match the average party identification in the previous three Washington Post and Post-Schar Virginia surveys and the current survey. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as they appear in this document. Voter registration, demographics and religious identity questions are not displayed. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by “RV” indicate results among registered voters, with “LV” indicating likely voters and other results are among adults overall. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.4 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All adults Registered voters Likely voters Unweighted sample size 1,121 1,000 720 Error margin +/- 3.5 points 3.5 4.5 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. 7