This Washington Post-Schar School poll was conducted by telephone October 26-29, 2017, among a random sample of 1,238 adults in the Commonwealth of Virginia, including landline and cell phone respondents with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points. The error margin is 3.5 points among the sample of 1,100 registered voters and four points among the sample of 921 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt Associates of Cambridge, Mass. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) RV=Registered voters LV=Likely voters 1. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) How closely are you following this year’s governor’s race in the state of Virginia: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all? ---- Closely -------- Not closely ----No NET Very Smwt. NET Not so At all opinion 10/29/17 RV 68 26 42 32 14 17 * 10/2/17 RV 58 18 40 41 18 23 * 5/14/17 RV 56 15 40 44 20 24 * 10/27/13 RV 79 33 46 21 10 10 * 9/22/13 RV 68 25 44 31 19 12 * 5/2/13 RV 48 10 38 52 27 25 * 10/25/09 LV 89 39 50 11 9 2 * 10/7/09 LV 87 33 54 13 11 2 * 9/17/09 LV 84 34 51 15 12 4 * 8/14/09 LV 67 25 42 32 23 9 1 8/14/09 RV 48 17 32 51 30 21 * 10/26/05 LV 87 31 56 13 10 2 * 9/9/05 LV 73 20 53 27 20 7 * 9/9/05 RV 59 15 44 41 26 15 * 8/23/01 RV 60 16 44 39 26 13 1 8/27/00 RV 61 21 40 38 25 13 * 6/23/94 RV 74 27 47 27 18 9 * 2/3/94 73 27 46 27 18 9 * 9/93 RV 68 21 47 31 21 10 * *2009 and earlier: Would you say you are following this year’s governor’s race in the state of Virginia very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? 2. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the Virginia governor’s election on November 7th: Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 10/29/17 10/2/17 10/27/13 9/22/13 RV RV RV RV Certain to vote 63 60 64 60 Probably vote 15 19 14 19 Chances 50/50 11 11 11 12 Less than that 8 8 8 8 Don't think will vote (vol.) 1 1 1 1 Already voted (vol.) 2 * 1 0 No op. * * * * 1 5/2/13 10/25/09 10/7/09 9/17/09 8/14/09 9/9/05 10/25/01 8/23/01 8/27/00 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV 67 60 53 53 61 68 63 68 76 15 16 20 19 16 18 19 16 14 11 13 15 16 13 9 10 10 7 6 6 9 9 7 4 5 5 2 1 2 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 0 1 * NA NA NA NA NA NA * 1 1 1 * 0 1 * * 3. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) If the election were being held today and the candidates were (Ralph Northam, the Democrat) and (Ed Gillespie, the Republican), and Cliff Hyra, the Libertarian, for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 10/29/17 10/29/17 10/2/17 10/2/17 LV RV LV RV Ralph Northam 49 46 53 48 Ed Gillespie 44 39 40 38 Cliff Hyra 4 5 4 5 Other (vol.) 0 * * * Would not vote (vol.) 0 1 0 2 Neither (vol.) 1 4 1 2 No opinion 3 5 2 5 4. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WHO SUPPORT ONE OF THE THREE CANDIDATES) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Northam/Gillespie/Hyra), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? Summary table among likely voters – 10/29/17 ----Enthusiastic----NET Very Somewhat 88 43 45 90 37 53 ---Not as enthusiastic--NET Not so Not at all 10 8 2 10 7 2 No opinion 2 * ---- Enthusiastic --NET Very Somewhat Terry McAuliffe: 10/27/13 LV 80 29 51 9/22/13 LV 75 19 56 5/2/13 LV 76 20 56 ---- Not enthusiastic --NET Not so Not at all No opinion Northam Gillespie Compare to: Ken Cuccinelli: 10/27/13 LV 87 9/22/13 LV 86 5/2/13 LV 81 35 31 20 52 55 61 20 25 22 14 17 16 6 7 6 * 1 3 13 13 18 10 8 14 3 5 3 0 1 1 ---Enthusiastic---NET Very Fairly --Not enthusiastic--NET Not too At all No opin. Creigh Deeds: 10/25/09 LV 10/7/09 LV 9/17/09 LV 8/14/09 LV 8/14/09 RV 75 79 82 79 67 22 20 22 16 12 53 59 60 63 56 24 20 17 19 31 21 16 14 15 22 3 4 3 4 8 1 * 1 2 2 Bob McDonnell: 10/25/09 LV 10/7/09 LV 9/17/09 LV 8/14/09 LV 8/14/09 RV 91 85 89 79 68 39 35 36 26 20 52 51 53 53 48 9 14 10 18 29 8 12 9 15 20 1 2 1 3 9 * * * 3 3 Jerry Kilgore: 10/6/05 85 27 58 14 13 2 1 Tim Kaine: 2 10/6/05 86 30 56 13 11 2 1 5. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS WHO CHOSE HYRA) If the only candidates for governor were (Ralph Northam, the Democrat) and (Ed Gillespie, the Republican), for whom would you vote? NET 2-WAY VOTE PREFERENCE AMONG ALL LIKELY/REGISTERED VOTERS 10/29/17 LV 10/2/17 LV Ralph Northam 50 54 Ed Gillespie 45 41 10/29/17 RV 10/2/17 RV 5/14/17 RV 47 49 49 42 39 38 Other (vol.) 0 * Would not vote (vol.) 0 1 Neither (vol.) 2 2 No opinion 3 3 1 2 2 5 4 2 5 5 9 * * * 6. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) How important is voting in this year’s governor’s election to you personally? Is voting extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all important? 10/29/17 LV ----- Important -----NET Extremely Very 87 56 31 Somewhat 11 ----- Not important -----NET Not too Not at all 2 2 * No opinion * 7. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Whom do you trust to do a better job handling [ITEM] (Northam), or (Gillespie)? (Half sample) Summary table among likely voters – 10/29/17 a. b. c. d. e. taxes healthcare race relations illegal immigration crime and public safety Northam 43 50 48 41 40 Gillespie 44 37 35 44 48 Both equally (vol.) * * 1 1 3 Neither (vol.) 5 2 4 4 2 No opinion 8 10 12 10 7 8.(AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) Based on what you know or have heard, do you think (NAME) has been conducting mainly a positive campaign, or mainly a negative campaign? Summary table – 10/29/17 a. Ralph Northam b. Ed Gillespie Mainly positive 46 36 Mainly Negative 37 51 No opinion 17 13 Compare to: 10/27/13 10/27/13 10/25/09 10/25/09 10/26/05 10/26/05 10/25/01 10/25/01 LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV McAuliffe (D) Cuccinelli (R) Deeds (D) McDonnell (R) Kaine (D) Kilgore (R) Warner (D) Earley (R) Mainly Positive 33 32 34 57 57 29 68 39 Mainly Negative 60 62 61 37 40 67 27 53 No opinion 7 6 5 6 3 4 5 8 9. (AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS) Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 3 10/29/17 10/29/17 10/2/17 5/14/17 LV RV RV RV -------- Approve ------NET Strongly Somewhat 38 27 11 36 24 12 34 20 14 36 21 15 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 59 7 52 60 10 50 60 10 50 60 7 53 No opinion 3 5 6 4 10. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS WHO APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE OF TRUMP) How important (is/was) your view of Trump in deciding your vote in the Virginia governor’s race? Very important, fairly important, not too important or not at all important? 10/29/17 LV -----Important----NET Very Fairly 57 38 19 ------Less important-----NET Not too Not at all 43 14 28 No opinion 1 11. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) As you may know, the candidates in November’s election for attorney general include (Mark Herring, the Democrat) and (John Adams, the Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for (Herring, the Democrat) or (Adams, the Republican)? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 10/29/17 LV 10/2/17 LV Mark Herring 51 52 John Adams 43 41 Other (vol.) 0 * Would not vote (vol.) * 1 Neither (vol.) 2 1 No opinion 5 5 12. (AMONG LIKELY VOTERS) As you may know, the candidates in November’s election for lieutenant governor include (Justin Fairfax, the Democrat) and (Jill Vogel, the Republican). If that election were being held today would you vote for (Justin Fairfax, the Democrat) or (Jill Vogel, the Republican)? Which one are you leaning toward right now? 10/29/17 LV Justin Fairfax 49 Jill Vogel 43 Other (vol.) 0 Would not vote (vol.) * Neither (vol.) 2 No opinion 6 Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or what? 10/29/17 LV 10/29/17 10/2/17 5/14/17 10/30/16 8/14/16 10/27/13 9/22/13 5/2/13 10/26/12 9/16/12 5/2/12 Democrat 33 32 34 34 30 31 32 33 28 31 32 31 Republican 27 24 24 24 24 21 24 24 26 23 24 25 Independent 31 32 32 33 36 37 31 33 33 36 35 36 Other 6 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 8 6 5 5 No op. 2 6 5 3 5 3 7 5 4 3 4 2 ***END*** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and the George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government. The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish and is a random sample of Virginia adult residents. 4 A total of 662 interviews were completed using dual frame Random Digit Dialing (RDD) procedures of landline and cellular phones in Virginia. The remaining 576 interviews were completed by sampling from a database of Virginia registered voters maintained by Aristotle, Inc., in which voters have been matched to landline and cellular phone numbers. The sample frames were de-duplicated, such that phone numbers existing on the voter list frame were not eligible for selection through the RDD frame. In the RDD sample, interviewers called landline and cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. In the voter file sample, interviewers asked for respondents names to be confirmed or matched to the voter file. The total sample included 433 interviews on landlines and 805 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 452 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for characteristics of the sample design and deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who were interviewed through the RDD and voter list samples based on the size of each frame. Weights correct for differential probability of selection for landline-only, cell phone-only and dual phone users. Results are also weighted to match the demographic makeup of the population according to the latest American Community Survey by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education and by region of the commonwealth, and the National Health Interview Survey by telephone usage. The voter file sample was also weighted to match the all voters on the registration list with an eligible phone number on a measure of inferred party identification. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as they appear in this document. Voter registration, demographics and religious identity questions are not displayed. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by “RV” indicate results among registered voters, with “LV” indicating likely voters and other results are among adults overall. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.4 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All adults Registered voters Likely voters Likely voters half samples Unweighted sample size 1,238 1,100 921 455-458 Error margin +/- 3.5 points 3.5 4 5.5 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. 5 Charter Member Transnarencv Initiative AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR PUBLIC OPINION RESEARCH