SAN JUAN CDUNTY
DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT

135 Rhone Street, PO Box 947, Friday Harbor, WA 98250
(360) 373-2354 (360)378-2116 FAX (360) 373-39122

 

I 
MEMO
TO: County Council
Planning Commission
CC: Erika Shook, AICP, Director, DCD
Mike Thomas, County Manager
FROM: Ryan Page, Affordable Housing Coordinator, Health and Community Services
Linda Kuller, Planning Manager, DCD 
SUBJECT: 2036 Comprehensive Plan Update: Housing Element
Briefing: Second Draft Housing Needs Assessment for review
DATE: October 11, 2017
BRIEFINGS: County Council: October 16, 2017

Planning Commission: October 20, 2017

Second Draft: Housing Needs Assessment dated October 11, 2017
Power Point presentation

 

Issue: Briefing on the second draft Housing Needs Assessment (HNA), Appendix 5 of the
Comprehensive Plan.

Background: To encourage early and continuous public participation a preliminary draft of the HNA
was released in August. Many helpful comments and suggestions are incorporated
into the attached second draft. The draft was substantially updated. A list of changes
is attached to this memo.

Housing is a critical element of the County?s social well-being, quality of life and
economic vitality all of which are interconnected. The next draft of the San Juan
County HNA following this briefing will provide the foundation upon which the
Comprehensive Plan Housing Element goals, policies and strategic actions will be

updated. It will also influence the update of goals and policies in other elements of
the Comprehensive Plan.

Briefing Purpose: To receive further comments on the updated draft.

Publlc Comments: We welcome public comments on the second draft. How to Comment:

1. Ma rk?up a copy of the section needing revisions or additions, or
2. Send specific written comments to DCD such as: Page X, Line should read 

Send Comments: To or

Drop them off at DCD, 935 Rhone Street, FH, or
Mail them to:

SJC Dept. of Community Development,

Attn. Linda Kuller, Housing Needs Assessment
PO Box 947, Friday Harbor, WA 93250

 

NEUNH RAINIBE Comp_Pliln\FubllG 

List of Primary Changes from the Preliminary August Draft of the Housing Needs Assessment

- Updated Executive Summary and Introduction

I Added ?Key Issues" Summary to each Section

- Section headings were re?organized I streamlined
I Some tables 6 figures were reuarranged for ?ow

.. Corrected math error in housing projection

I Added Tables:

is 5?3, 2036 Housing Units Projection by Income Distribution
is 5?10, San Juan County Housing Ownership Affordability, 2015

I Added Figures:

is 5-3, Average Annual Wage, Adjusted for Inflation, 1967 2015

is 551', San Juan County Covered Employment Classi?ed by industry, 2016
is 5?8, Unemployment Rate, non?seasonally adjusted. 2016

is 5?10, San Juan County Housing Permits. 1960-2016

is 5?12, Median Home Prices Compared to Median Wages, 1997-2014

I Expanded info in Section 5.3.1 Population Trends and Projections on the of housing units needed
. Revwrote parts of Sections 5.3.2 Income and Economic Structure and 5.3.3 Employment

I Expanded parts of Section 5.4 Housing Inventory for clarity

. Added excerpt of Census definitions: Vacant Housing Units in Section 5.4.1 Vacant Units

I Expanded Section 5.4.2 Age and Condition of Housing Stock

- Edited parts of Section 5.4.3 Median Home Values

I Edited Figure 5?16. Renter Occupied Units as a Percentage of Total Housing Units to include State
demographics

I Expanded Section 5.4.5 Rental Housing

- Expanded Section 55 Affordable Housing

I Added de?nition of HUD income limits to Section 5.5 Affordable Housing

- Added excerpt in Section 5.5 Affordable Housing from the 2013 Community Conversations

I Added excerpt in Section 5.5 Affordable Housing from Lopez Family Resource Center 2017
Affordable Housing Assessment

- Edited and expanded Section 5.5.4 San Juan County Affordable Housing Programs

I Added excerpt from 2016 SJC Strategic Action Plan in Section 5.5.4 San Juan County Affordable
Housing Programs

I Added Conclusion as Section 5.7
- Added Matrix of State, Federal and Private Housing Programs as Table 5-17
I Added Appendix: Resolution adopting 2016 SJC Strategic Action Plan

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COMPREHENSIVE PLAN

Appendix 5

HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

October 12, 2017 SECOND DRAFT

 

 

APPENDIX 5

HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS
5.1 Executive Summary 3
Key Issues and Trends 3
5.2 Introduction 8
5.3 Demographics 9
5.3.1 Population Trends and Projections '3
5.3.2 Income and Economic Structure 14
5.3.3 Employment 19
5.4 Housing Inventory 22
5.4.1 Vacant Units 25
5.4.2 Age and Condition of Housing Stock 27
5.4.3 Median Values 23
5.4.4 Vacation Rentals 30
5.4.5 Rental Housing 32
5.5 Affordable Housing 34
5.5.1 Housing Affordability Index 33
5.5.2 Housing Costs 40
5.5.3 Homele55ness 42
5.5.4 San Juan County Affordable Housing Programs 43
5.5.5 Housing Groups and Nonprofits 44
5.5.5 Affordable Apartments 45
5.6 Land Availability 46
5.6.1 Housing Targets and Capacity 47
5.7 Conclusions 47
5.6 San Juan County Low?Income Housing Inventory 49
5.5 Matrix of State and Federal Housing Programs 49
usT or TABLES
Table 5?1. San Juan County Population and Housing Units 2036 Projection 10
Table 5-2. DFM Population Projection by 4 Year Age Cohort 11
Table 53. 2036 Housing Units Projection by Income Distribution 13
Table 5-4. Income and Benefits 16
Table 5-5. San Juan County Population Employment Status 15
Table 5-6. San Juan County Population Occupation and Industry 20
Table 5?7. San Juan County Housing Inventow 23


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Table 5-3. Housing Inventory by Island, 2010 27
Table 5?9. HUD Area Median Income Limit Guidelines, 2017 35
Table 5-10. San Juan County Housing Ownership Affordability, 2015 36
Table 5?11. Households by Area Median Income Distribution, 2010-2014 37
Table 5-12. Median Resale Price and Housing Affordability Index (HAI), Quarter 2017 39
Table 5-13. Housing Costs of Occupied Housing Units as a Percentage of Household Income 40
Table 5-14. San Juan County Point in Time Homeless Count, 2014-2017 42
Table 5?15. San Juan County Low-Income Housing Inventory, 2017 47
Table 5?16. Other Affordable Options No Income Restrictions 43
Table 5-17. Matrix of State, Federal, and Private Housing Programs 49
List or FIGURES

Figure 5-1. San Juan County Population by Age Percentage Over Time 12
Figure 5-2. Washington State Real Per Capita Personal Income by County, 2015 14
Figure 5-3. Average Annual Wage, Adjusted for Inflation, 1987 2015 15
Figure 54. Major Components of Total Personal Income, San Juan County, 2015 (Thousands of Dollars).. 17
Figure 5?5. Major Components as a Percent of Total Personal Income: San Juan County, 1969 2015 18
Figure 5?6. Comparison of Average Levy Rates by Year Due in 2009-2016 18
Figure 5-7. San Juan County Covered Employment Classified by Industry, 2016 21
Figure 5?3. Unemployment Rate, non-seasonally adjusted, 2016 21
Figure 5?9. New Residents to New Houses 24
Figure 5-10. San Juan County Housing Permits, 1980-2016 24
Figure 5?11. Age of Housing Stock, 2011-2015 28
Figure 5?12. Median Home Prices Compared to Median Wages, 1997-2014 29
Figure 5?13. Owner-Occupied Housing Stock by Value {Thousands of Dollars), 2011?2015 29
Figure 5-14. Total No. of Vacation Rental Permits 30
Figure 5?15. Housing Units by Occupancy Type, 2015 31
Figure 5?16. Vacation Rental Permits as compared to Dwelling Unit Permits 31
Figure 5?17. Housing Units by Occupancy Type 32
Figure 5-18. Renter Occupied Units as a Percentage of Total Housing Units 33
Figure 5-19. Rental Housing Units by Gross Rent, 2011-2015 33
Figure 5-20. Percentage of Renter Households by HAMFI, 2010?2014 33
Figure 5-21. Housing Affordability Index, 2008-2017 39
Figure 5-22. Occupied Housing Units paying greater than 30 percent of Household Income to 

Housing Costs 42

APPENDIX

1. Resolution No.13?2017 Adopting the San Juan County Affordable Housing Workgroup Strategic
Action Plan.

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40







LL-?-hh-h?


5.1 Executive Summary

Housing is a critical element of the county?s social well?being, quality of life and economic vitality,
all of which are interconnected. The San Juan County Housing Needs Assessment provides the
foundation upon which the Comprehensive Plan goals, policies and strategic actions are
developed. It will also influence the goals and policies of other Comprehensive Plan elements
helping to ensure the vitality and character of established residential neighborhoods, encourage
the availability of affordable housing to all economic segments of the population, promote a
variety of residential densities and housing types, and encourage preservation ofthe existing
housing stock.

State Overview

Although Washington State?s economy is currently strong and growing, housing availability and
affordability is one of Washington State?s most challenging issues. Washington is the third most
expensive state in the nation. Home purchase prices are growing. The State?s rental vacancy rates
are below average. According to the American Community Survey, this rate was 3.3 percent in
2015 compared to 5.8 percent in 2010. According to the State of Washington Housing Needs
Assessment, January 2015, cost burden is a large and growing problem for middle and lower?
income families in Washington. Many are severely cost burdened. Increasingly, affordability has
become a driver of homelessness in the state.

San Juan County is not alone in facing major housing challenges given State trends. in addition,
San Juan County faces challenges and needs because it is an island community with island-specific
needs, has a predominate service sector economy, experiences seasonal economic swings, and has
large elderly, seasonal and recreational populations.

KEY ISSUES AND TRENDS
Population Growth

I The County?s population is steadily increasing and aging.

I It is expected to increase by 3,109 people (19 percent) by 2036 based on the maintenance
of the County?s proportionate share of the State?s population, primarily driven by
migration.

I Population is aging and shows a diminished presence of 20 to 40 year olds compared to the
State. The Office of Financial Management predicts that nearly 45 percent of the County?s
population will be 60 or older by the year 2030, a 3 percent increase from 2016.

Housing Units Needed by 2036

I It is estimated an additional 1,524 housing units will be needed to accommodate future
population growth based on the 2036 population projection

I A total of 2,377 new housing units might be needed to meet the 2036 housing needs for
both permanent residents and seasonal residents.

I Additional units outside of these projections will be needed to relieve financial pressure on
cost?burdened households currently living in the County.

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34

Income and Cost Burden

San Juan County's per capita income is the seconds highest in the State at $60,489, but the
average annual wage is well below the State average at $33,390.

The number of households making $100,000 a year or more are increasing in the County
while those making between $50,000 and $99,999 are on the decline.

If the County maintains its current distribution of household income, 3,723 households
living in the County would be expected to meet low income by HUD guidelines in 2036.

Of the full time households in San Juan County, 40 percent have income considered either
low, very low or extremely low according to HUD's guidelines.

According to the 2015 Washington State House Needs Assessment, there are 3,100 cost?
burdened households in San Juan County. The 0.5. Department of Housing and Urban
Development defines cost-burdened households as families paying over 30 percent of their
income for housing, and those paying over 50 percent of their income are
considered severely cost?burdened. From 2010 to 2015, the percentage of cost-burdened
households in nearly every income bracket has increased.

According to the September 2016 United Way ALICE Report, 11 percent of the County
population lives below the Federal Poverty Level. Another 22 percent of households in San
Juan County earn above the Federal Poverty Level, but not enough to afford a basic
household budget of housing, childcare, food, transportation, and health care.

Employment

Employment participation in the County is declining as the median age increases.

The labor force of the County is shrinking and employment in San Juan County is heavily
seasonal. Unemployment rates typically fluctuate up to 3 percent between their low point
in January and the high in August.

One third of workers are employed in low wage jobs in the accommodation, food services,
or retail trade fields.

The combination of low wage employment, the lack of affordable/available housing and
high cost of living weighs against the immigration of younger people with limited personal
capital and favors affluent older people with greater personal capital.

Housing Inventory and Occupancy

Development of new housing units has declined since the 1390's, and development has
continued to slow since the recession of 2009.

San Juan County shows a lack of diversity of housing types with few multi-family units. in
2015, 34 percent of structures in the County were 1?unit detached structures, as opposed
to 63 percent statewide. Only 3.4 percent of the structures in the County consist of five or
more units, compared to 19.5 percent statewide.

No new multi-family unit permits were issued from 2009?2015.

There is no apparent shortage of housing units in the County. However, despite there
being 1 housing unit for every 1.2 residents, there was a 2015 shortage of available housing
due to 43.4 percent of housing units being vacant units, compared to 9.3 percent of
housing units in Washington State which are considered vacant.

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1 I Only 16 percent of the County?s total housing inventory is renter occupied compared to 34
2 percent statewide.
3 I The majority of vacant housing units in the County are categorized "For seasonal,
4 recreational or occasional use."
5 I From 2000?2010, 56 percent of all new housing units were built for or converted to housing
6 being used for seasonal, recreational or occasional use.
7 I From 2000-2010, roughly 21 housing units per year were converted from owner-occupied
to vacant units.
9
10 Homelessness
11
12 I The 2017 Point in Time Count recorded the highest number of individuals considered
13 homeless or at risk of homelessness residing in the County since the inception of the count.
14 I The highest percentage of respondents during the 2017 count were those living in
15 substandard structures including recreational vehicles, trailers or tents.
16
17 Housing Stock Age and Condition
13
19 I Many of the County?s housing units (45 percent) were built after 1990.
20 I Only 19 percent were built before 1970.
21 I The number of occupied housing units lacking complete plumbing facilities and/or
22 complete kitchen facilities have increased.
23 I San Juan County has seen an increase in occupied housing units lacking complete plumbing
24 facilities and/or complete kitchen facilities. Information on substandard housing in the
25 County is incomplete but local Family Resource Centers have experienced an increase in
26 people seeking services who are living in substandard housing.
27
26 Vacation Rentals
29
30 I The number of vacation rentals in the County has steadily increased since the year 2000,
31 making up 7 percent of the total housing stock in 2015.
32 I From 2005-2010, there were 5.5 new dwelling units created in the County for every
33 vacation rental permit issued per year.
34 I From 2011?2016 there were only 2.13 new dwelling units per vacation rental permit.
35 I The decline in new construction appears to be more of a factor than vacation rentals on
36 housing supply and availability.
37
36 Rental Housing
39
40 I Renter-occupied housing units make up 16 percent of the houses in San Juan County,
41 roughly 50 percent less than the ratio in the rest of Washington.
42 I One fourth of all rental units in the County cost $1,250 or more a month.
43 I For households in the County making $50,000 or less, there exists only one affordable
44 rental unit for every 2.7 households.
45 I Rental housing in the County can be volatile and it is affected by seasonal economic shifts
46 due to tourism and part?time residents.
47

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15

39

Median Home Values

The median home price in San Juan County has risen every year since 2012 and is currently
30 percent higher than the rest of Washington State.

The median resale price of homes in the County in the first quarter of 2017 was $453,100,
30 percent higher than the rest of Washington State.

Home prices in San Juan County have risen every year since 2012 and appear to be
uncorrelated to median wages. This implies that economic forces outside ofthe local
County economy drive housing demand in the County.

Only 22 percent of owner-occupied houses in San Juan County are valued between
$100,000 to $300,000, compared to 50 percent in the rest of Washington State.

There is a gap of nearly $170,000 between what the average house in San Juan County sells
for and what the average San Juan County family can afford.

Affordable Housing

The County?s 2017 Area Median Income as defined by HUD is $57,600.

There is a gap of nearly $170,000 between what the County considers an affordable house
for those making the Area Median Income and the median resale price of a home in the
County.

Only eighteen percent of houses in the County are valued at a price that is considered
affordable to the 46 percent of households making $50,000 or less.

Approximately 3,728 households that are considered low income or below by HUD
standards are projected to be living in San Juan County in the year 2036.

Housing Affordability Index

According to the Washington Center for Real Estate Research Housing Affordability Index,
housing in San Juan County is the least affordable in the State.

San Juan County's Housing Affordability index was 44.5 points lower than the rest of the
State in 2017.

Housing affordability has steadily declined in the County since 2012.

First time homebuyers are particularly disadvantaged in the housing market due to the
personal capital needed in order to afford a down payment for an average price home.
Despite being considerably less affordable than the rest of Washington State, fluctuations
in the affordability index of San Juan County since 2003 show a correlation with the State?s
housing market as a whole.

Housing Costs

There were 3,100 cost-burdened households in San Juan County in 2015, and 3,713 are
projected to live in the County by 2035.

From 2000 to 2010, the percentage of cost-burdened households increased in nearly every
income bracket in San Juan County.

The lack of affordable housing options affects nearly every income bracket.

It is becoming more common for middle and moderate-income households to become
cost?burdened by housing.

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comxaoscn?e-coM?n





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Needs and Projections

Availability and affordability are the County?s most pressing housing issues. The lack of affordable
housing units in San Juan County combined with a significant percentage of housing stock made up
of occasional or recreational use second homes makes estimating the future housing needs of San
Juan County difficult.

Based solely on the approved projected population increase of 3,109 people by 2036, it is
estimated that 1,524 additional housing units will be needed to accommodate this growth. Of
these units, 809 are projected to be constructed in Urban Growth Areas. Approximately 1,097 of
these units will need to be for owner?occupied housing and 428 for renter?occupied.

Additionally of those 1,524 units, it is projected that by 2036 the County will need:

333 units for those making 50 percent ofthe Area Median Income (AMI) or less,
I 424 units for those making between 50 to 100 percent of the AMI, and
I 767 units for those making above 100 percent of the AMI.

Another way of estimating future needs is to look at the occupancy of new housing units created
in the County from 2000?2010. Of these, 56 percent were used for seasonal, recreational or

occasional use in 2010. A projection of future housing needs must acknowledge that over half of
all new housing created in the County will not be for full time owner or renter occupied housing.

Assuming that the 56 percent of all new housing units will be built for seasonal, recreational or
occasional use, an additional 853 housing units (1,524 56 percent) would be needed to satisfy
demand for seasonal or recreational use. This means that a total of 2,377 new housing units might
be needed to meet the 2036 housing needs for both permanent residents and seasonal residents.

There are projected to be 3,723 low income or below households living in San Juan County by
2036, and 1,809 households who are considered severely cost?burdened.

Home prices fluctuate over time; however, it is clear that the price of homes in San Juan County is
likely to remain beyond the reach of many economic sectors for the near future. This fact, in the
absence of an effort to combat its negative impacts, is likely to have significant consequences on
the demographic profile of the community and the County?s social fabric. It could hasten the
growth of the already disproportionate demographic that are elderly and decrease the proportion
of youth and young parents.

It cannot be presumed that the proportions of the different income groups will remain constant
over the planning horizon. If affordable housing for the very low, low, moderate and middle?
income sectors is not available then many people in those sectors simply will not remain in, or
relocate to the County.

The absence of affordable housing will ensure a corresponding lack of diverse income sectors by
2036. If housing that is affordable to all the different income groups is not developed over the
planning horizon it is reasonable to assume that both total numbers and relative percentages of
very low income to middle?income earners will decline dramatically relative to the upper income
groups.

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5.2 Introduction

RCW 36.70A.O7U (2) details the mandatory requirements of the Comprehensive Plan Housing
Element. The Housing Needs Assessment is one piece of the Housing Element. This statute states
that, in order to be compliant, the Housing Element:

(3) Includes an inventory and analysis of existing and projected housing needs that
identifies the number of housing units necessary to manage projected growth;

includes a statement of goals, policies, objectives, and mandatory provisions for
the preservation, improvement, and development of housing, including single?family
residences;

identifies sufficient land for housing, including, but not limited to, government
assisted housing, housing for low-income families, manufactured housing,
multifamily housing and group homes and foster care facilities; and

makes adequate provisions for existing and projected needs of all economic
segments of the community.

In addition to the requirements of the GMA above, the implementing regulations at WAC 365-195-
310 specify requirements for a compliant comprehensive plan element, as follows:

1. Requirements. This element shall contain at least the following features:
a. An inventory and analysis of existing and projected housing needs.
b. A statement of the goals, policies, and objectives for the preservation,
improvement, and development of housing.
c. Identification of suf?cient land for housing, including, but not limited to,
governmentuassisted housing, housing for Iow~income families, manufactured
housing, multifamily housing, and group homes and care facilities.

The purpose of this Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) is to evaluate the current stock of housing in
the County. The HNA will evaluate the County?s ability to meet future housing needs and to
maintain the vitality and character of established residential neighborhoods. Another function of
the HNA is encouraging the availability of affordable housing to all economic segments of the
population. Housing costs are generally the single largest household expenditure for Washington
residents.

The unique geography and economy of San Juan County can make solving housing problems more
complicated than other areas of our State. San Juan County lacks the infrastructure of urban areas
and has the additional difficulty of the Salish Sea dividing the County into smaller community units,
which can prevent economies of scale.

The housing market in San Juan County is also driven by regional economic factors that can be
difficult to address at the local level. This Housing Needs Assessment attempts to analyze the
supply and demand factors affecting local housing, and engage with the following questions:

1. Is the current housing stock appropriate and affordable for current residents?
2. is housing accessible for future residents housing needs?

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This document uses a wide array of data sources in an effort to understand fully the many factors
affecting housing in San Juan County. Some data is available going back 40 or 50 years, while
other data sources are relatively new with limited historical data available.

The primary data sources used in the Housing Needs Assessment are from the:

0.5. Census Bureau, including both the Decennial Census and the 0.5. Census Bureau?s
American Community Survey (AC5),

Washington Regional Economic Analysis Project (WA-REAP),

- Office of Financial Management (DFM),

I U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD),

I Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies, and

- 2015 Washington State Housing Needs Assessment.

The ACS is a nationwide confidential survey conducted annually by the Census Bureau starting in
2005. Beginning in 2010, the ACS began to produce 5-year estimates for geographic areas with
populations under 20,000. AC5 data is not directly comparable to the Decennial Census as the ACS
is an aggregate of data over a 5-year period.

5.3 Demographics
5.3.1 Population Trends and Projections

The population ofthe County in 2016 was approximately 16,314 people and is estimated to reach
19,423 by 2036. This represents an increase of about 19 percent or 3,109 people, or 1,524
households, based on 2.04 persons per household.1

Population change is primarily driven by two factors:

1. Natural increase (births minus deaths); and
2. Net migration (inwmigration minus out?migration).

The difference between births and deaths is considered the natural component of population
change. The difference between in?migration and out?migration is considered the migration
component of population change.

Both the natural and migration components of population change are tied to the community?s
demographic profile. Internal factors or population characteristics, such as the gender and age
distribution of the community directly affect the rates of natural increase. External or social factors
such as employment, housing, community facilities and education opportunities contribute to
migration rates.

Table 5?1 shows the breakdown of the projected population increase by island. This projection is
based on the maintenance of the County?s proportionate share of the State?s population. For the
past 36 years, the County has retained a consistent share of the State population while the
average annual increase rates are volatile and inconsistent from decade to decade. San Juan

 

I See 

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1 County has averaged a 0.23 percent proportionate share of the Washington State Population since
2 1970.
3
4 Migration rather than natural increase is the source of the County?s population growth. The
5 unpredictability of migration fosters variable average annual growth rates. The County's
6 population as a share of the State?s population has remained consistent since the 1980's de5pite
7 significant swings in migratory patterns. Additionally, each island?s share ofthe County's
3 population has been stable since the 1990 census.
9
10 With an average household size of 2.04, a population increase of 3,109 people will require the
11 development of approximately 1,524 housing units Countywide or roughly 76 new units annually.
12 The projected Housing Units needed in the Orcas and Lopez Urban Growth Areas (UGAs) is based
13 on the premise that 50 percent of future development will occur within the respective 
14

15 Table 5-1. San Juan Cou Iation and Housi Units 2036 Pro action.

5430 Juan island

 

uni . 34.1% 6 146 31.6% 586 287 
Fri Harbor 13.8% 3 152 16.2% 902 442 442
San Juan Island Subtotal 47.9% 9 298 47.9% 1 488 729 442
Orcas 5 33.1% 6 423 33.1% 1 028 504 252
Lo 2.466 15.1% 2.935 15.1% 470 230 115
Shaw 241 1-5% 287 1.5% 46 23 
Total Fer Served islands 15 12 97.5% 18 944 97.5% 3 032 1 486 809
Total Non?F Served 402 2.5% 479 2.5% 77 38 0
Total 16 4 100.0% 19 423 100.0% 3 109 24 809
13 Source: U.S. Census, CIFM annual estimate. 1.7 percent annual tion growth rate attributed to the Town of Friday Harbor from personal
17 correspondence with the Town of Friday Harbor?s Land Use Administrator, Mike Bertrand, on March 9, 2017.
18

19 The Office of Financial Management (OFM) identifies the 5-year cohorts used in the medium

20 projection in Table 5-2. This data shows that 58 percent of the Coonty population is over the age
21 50. Conversely, DFM data shows that approximately 34 percent of the State?s population is over
22 the age of 50. Table 5?2 also shows the County has a diminished presence of people between the
23 ages of 20 and 40. in Washington, 20 to 40 year olds make up approximately 28 percent of the

24 population. In San Juan County, they make up 16 percentz.

25

26 Demographic data compiled from federal data sources including the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
27 Bureau of the Census, American Community Survey office, 0.5. Department of Commerce, Bureau
28 of Labor Statistics and U.S. Department of Labor by the Economic Profile System reveal the

29 following attributes of the County?s population:
30

 

2 GFM: Forecast of State population by age and sex; November 2016

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?ham-The median age of the County's population changed from 47 in 2000 to 54 in 2015. Half of
the County's population is now over 54 years old, and 63 percent is over the age of 45. The
median age of the State is 67.

The County?s population is highly educated. Approximately 46.6 percent of the population
have attained a bachelor?s degree or higher. By contrast, approximately 32.9 percent of the
State?s population have achieved the same level of education.3

San Juan County is the smallest county in Washington by total landmass.

Data from the Office of the Superintendent for Public Instruction (DSPI), corrected to
eliminate distortion by Orcas Island School District?s OASIS program, shows that
enrollments in the school districts on San Juan, Orcas and Lopez Islands has declined at an
annual average rate of?1.6, and ?0.45 respectively between 2005 and 2016. This is
consistent with populations whose median age is increasing and negative natural increase.

Table 5?2. OFM Population Projection by 4 Year Age Cohort.

 

sols, 32.023 .. 2630' ,?zzoss

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Total Total Total
16,320 16,606 16,939 17,215
0-4 459 600 632 642
5?9 560 619 676 710
10-14 710 601 686 758
15-19 697 623 602 693
20-24 627 614 587 577
25?29 552 767 717 664
30-34 653 926 944 880
35?39 743 761 1,046 1,076
40-44 812 746 846 1,150
45?49 961 763 794 696
50-54 1,170 856 820 857
55?59 1,497 999 956 929
60-64 1,781 1,412 1,109 1,071
65459 1,848 1,665 1,428 1,121
70-74 1,349 1,666 1,561 1,370
75-79 842 1,438 1,478 1,403
60-64 517 675 1,149 1,196
65+ 522 655 904 1,219

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: WA 0PM GMA 2012 Intermediate Projections

Figure 5?1 presents the projected arc of the age of the County?s population over time according to
the OFM intermediate projections. The OFM projects the 60+ population demographic to plateau
around 2025 and then slowly to begin to recede.

 

3 Source: US. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

'l'l

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Figure 5-1. San Juan County Population by Age Percentage Over Time.

 

4 5.30%

o'l Ll, 110211,

35.00%

30- 0034:.

2 5.00313

20.00%

EDITMI

 

101.30%

9016 902'} 2030 2035

50-19 120-39 I140 5'3 IGCH

 

 

 

Source: WA DFM GMA 2012 Intermediate Projections

The migration component of population change is more volatile than the natural component.
Major economic, social, climate or national changes can generate spurts and slowdowns in
migration that are difficult to predict. Uncertainty about the pace and nature of economic
recovery, property costs, and the availability of medical services may affect County migration
trends in the future.

The combination of low wage employment in the seasonal service and recreation sectors (see
Figure and lack of affordable housing (see Tables 5-10, 511, and 5?12) weighs against the in?
migration of younger people with limited personal capital and favors affluent older people with
greater personal capital. This characteristic is reflected in the age of the County?s population.

Based solely on population projection, it is estimated that an additional 1,524 housing units will be
needed to accommodate future population growth, 309 of which are projected to be constructed
in Urban Growth Areas (see Table 5-1).

Based on trends shown in Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy data?, 1,097 of
these units will need to be for owner?occupied housing and 428 for renter-occupied. Additionally,
this data shows that 333 of these new units will need to serve households making 50 percent of
the Area Median Income (AMI) or less, 424 for those making between 50 to 100 percent of the
AMI, and 767 for those making above 100 percent of the AMI (see Table 53).

If the County maintains its current distribution of household income, 3,728 households would be
expected to be living in the County in 2036 that are considered low income by HUD guidelines (see
Section 5.5.2, Table 5-11).

 

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Tables-3. 2036 Housing Units Prjection by Income Distr?ibutin.

  

Owner Renter
Occupied Occupied
Units Units
1 Needed Needed
Household Income s= 30% 66 99 165
Household income 330% to si=50?i? 95 73 168
Household Income :50% to {?8096 HAM Fl 171 92 263
Household Income 380% to <=100% HAM Fl 119 42 161
Household income 310096 HAMFI 545 121 767
Total i 1,097 427 1,524

 

 

 

 

 

Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data 2010-2014, SJC 2036 Population Projection

However, this does not take into account the rate at which housing units in the County are being
built or converted to non-owner-occupied units. Of the 3,561 new housing units created in the
County from 2000?2010, 55 percent were built for or converted to housing categorized as being
used for seasonal, recreational or occasional use in 2010 (see Table 5-7).

Assuming that the 56 percent of all new housing units will be built for seasonal, recreational or
occasional use, an additional 353 housing units (1,524 56 percent) would be needed to satisfy
demand for seasonal or recreational use. This means that a total of 2,377 new housing units might
be needed to meet the 2036 housing needs for both permanent residents and seasonal residents.

Given the 2000?2010 data trend, if 1,524 housing units were built by the private market over the
planning horizon, 853 (2,377 1,524) units represent how many units would be expected to be
built for seasonal, recreational or occasional use (or units from the current owner/renter occupied
stock which are converted to seasonal/ recreational/occasional use).

These numbers speak solely to satisfying the housing demand of future population growth, and do
not address the need for affordable housing that currently exists (see Table 5-13, Figure 5-22). It is
dif?cult to estimate the number of units needed to satisfy the current need for affordable housing
in the County.

There are estimated to be 3,713 cost-burdened households (those paying greater than 30 percent
of their gross income to housing costs) in San Juan County by 2036, and 1,809 severely
cost-burdened households (those paying greater than 50 percent). Additional affordable housing
units outside of the 2,377 target will need to be built to address this issue. See Section 5.5 for a
further discussion of affordable housing needs in the County.

KEY ISSUES:

I Population is expected to increase by 3,109 people by 2035, primarily driven by migration.

. Population is aging and shows a diminished presence of 20 to 40 year olds compared to the
State.

I It is estimated an additional 1,524 housing units will be needed to accommodate future
population growth.

 

5 Huo Area Median Family income, see Table 5-9
1 3

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Initial

$3

I A total of 2,377 new housing units might be needed to meet the 2036 housing needs for
both permanent residents and seasonal residents.

5.3.2 Income and Economic Structure

The purpose of this Section is to describe the current economic landscape of San Juan County and
promote a better understanding of the economic factors that influence the County housing
market.

Figure 5?2. depicts the Real Per Capita Personal Income for San Juan County compared to counties
around the State. San Juan County's Real Per Capita Personal Income in 2015 was $60,439, the
second highest in Washington State after King County. The statewide average for 2015 was

$47,381.

The County's Real Per Capita Personal Income may be misleading due to the high proportion of
retirees in the community. The average annual wage in San Juan County for 2015 was 5331,8905,
which Figure 5?3 shows is well below the State average.

Figure 5-2. Washington State Real? Per Capita Personal Income by County, 2015?

21 im in
mm: in





.3000if31:52:[1ff?l a:
L.

Source: Calculations by the Washington Regional Economic Analysis Project (WA-REAP) with data provided by the US. Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

 

5 Washington State Dept. of Employment Security San Juan County Data Table:
7 Real per capita personal income determined using the Chain-Weight implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consun?Iptlon 

a In 2015 Constant Dollars
l4

USHLONG RANGE PROJECT Camp_Pian\Pubiic 

wm?mmhm

Figure 5-3. Average Annual Wage, Adjusted for Inflation, 1987 2015

$70,000 
$00,000 -
$50,000 -

$40,000

 

 

 

$30,000 -

 

 

State

 



$20,000

Less King

$10,000
?San Juan

 

 

 

 

$0

 

1997 1939 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Source: Washington State Dept. of Employment Security San Juan County Data Tables



Table 5?4 shows the change in household income and benefits brackets from the 2006?2010
American Community Survey period to 2011-2015. Over this period, the percent of households
making less than $25,000 remained relatively stable while households making $25,000 to $75,000
declined by 1.9 percent. Households making above $75,000 increased by 2.0 percent.

According to the September 2015 United Way ALICE Reportg, 11 percent of the County population
lives below the Federal Poverty Level (FPL). Another 22 percent of households in San Juan County
earn above the Federal Poverty Level (FPL), but not enough to afford a basic household budget of
housing, childcare, food, transportation, and health care. This report indicates that a single
individual would need to make $20,920 annually, and a family of four with one infant and one
preschooler would need to make $57,864 annuallyjust to survive on a bare?minimum budget
without leaving anything for savings.

 

9' 

15

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m-p-wM?to

 

Table 5-4 Sam" Cuntv We and?m?t: 
"2006?2010
[Estimated-0

 
 
 

zines-15

Estimates$le

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Toal households?- 7,936 7,703
Less than $10,000 4.4% 5.7%
$10,000 to $14,959 5.5% 5.0%
$15,000 to $24,999 10.6% 9.7%
$25,000 to $34,999 10.4% 10.6%
$35,000 to $49,999 13.8% 14.9%
$50,000 to 574.999 21.6% 13.4%
$75,000 to $99,999 13.8% 12.0%
$100,000 to 5149.599 11.1% 12.5%
$150,000 to $199,999 3.3% 4.9%
$200,000 or more 5.4% 6.2%
Median household income (dollars) 55,233 55,950
Mean household income (dollars) 77,120 80,794

 

 

 

 

 

Source: 0.5. Census Bureau, 2006-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

The majority of income in San Juan County is earned through property income. Figure 5?4
delineates personal Income In the County Into three types. Earned Income can be viewed as
compensation for labor services. Property Income represents payments in the form of dividends,
interest and rent for the services of capital. In contrast to the other two components of income,
Transfer Payments are by de?nition payments that are not related to the provision of services.
Transfer Payments are payments received from things such as Social Security, Disability Payments,
medical payments from Medicare and Medicaid, Family Assistance, Food Stamps, Supplemental
Security Income, Unemployment insurance Payments, and Veterans Benefits Payments.
Property Income made up 53.8 percent of the total personal income In the County in 2015,
compared to 20.9 percent for Washington State and 18.8 percent nationally. In combination,
Property Income and Transfer Payments amounted to 68.8 percent (53.8 percent 15.0 percent)
of San Juan County's personal income in 2015.13

 

1? In 2010 Inflation Adjusted Dollars.

In 2015 Inflation Adjusted Dollars.

if A family consists of a householder and one or more other people living in the same household who are related to the householder by birth,
marriage, or adoption. All people in a household who are related to the householder are regarded as members of his or her family. A family
household may contain people not related to the householder, but those people are not included as part of the householder's family in tabulations.
Thus, the number of family households is equal to the number of families, but family households may include more members than do families. A
household can contain only one family for purposes of tabulations. Not all households contain families since a household may be comprised of a
group of unrelated people or of one person living alone - these are called nonfamily households. Source: A05 2013 Subject De?nitions.

13 Source: WashIngton.REAproject.org
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acumen-Figure 5-4. Major Components of Total Personal Income, San Juan County, 2015 (Thousands of Dollars)

 

?nal: haehugor??lluirch-g
Dm Prim: innw [Wam- rli-II-Hlli

Property Income as a percentage of total personal income in San Juan County is overrepresented in
comparison to the rest of Washington State and the country. This is consistent with San Juan County?s
booming real estate and vacation rental market. Despite having the second highest per capita personal
income in Washington (as seen in Figure 5-2), San Juan County has by far the lowest percentage of Earned
Income in the state.

Earned Income made up only 31.2 percent of personal income in 2015, which amounted to a substantially
smaller share than the corresponding 63.9 percent for Earned Income nationwide and is nearly 10 percent
less than the County with the second lowest share of Earn Income in Washington (Jefferson County at 40.83
percent).

Figure 5-5 traces the changing share and relative importance of each income type over time since 1969.
Earned Income as a share of San Juan County's personal income declined from 53.1 percent in'1969 to 31.2
percent in 2015, a shift in relative share declining 22.0 percent. fosetting this decline was a 16.9 percent
increase in Property lncome's share from 36.9 percent in 1969 to 53.3 percent in 2015; and a 5.0 percent
advance in Transfer Payments share, from 10.0 percent to 15.0 percent over the same period. Large
increases in Property Income and Transfer Payments share are often associated with counties that
experienced an influx of relatively af?uent retirees.?

 

Source: Washington.REAproject.org
1 7'

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1 Figure 5-5. Major Components as a Percent of Total Personal Income: San Juan County, 1969 2015

 

I Elmodlncumo Transfer Payment:- I

100']. _i 100?].
30?- 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

105995 2000 .2005 201 201 5

Source. 
DJIJ Hug-and Inculr- ?Ln. (ll-I L23 Iii-J

 

 

 

3
5 The County has the lowest real estate tax levy rate in the State despite having the second highest
5 per capita personal income of any County in the State and property income making up nearly 54
7 percent of all total income In the County. As shown in Figure 5-6, the average levy rate in San Juan
8 County is 56.82 per 51,000 of assessed value. This is $4.65 lower than the statewide average,

9 $7.91 lower than the highest rate in the State (Pierce County) and $2.03 less than the next lowest

10 County (Wahkiakuml.

 

 

 

 

 

1 ?l
12 Figure 5-6. Comparison of Average Levy Rates15 by Year Due in 20094016
$15.11!"
314 Ht!


1mm
ENIUU
nu

it?ll?
Show
nu
?ltuu?c .5: 
-:
:lg Source: WA Department of Revenue Property Tax Statistics 2015 Comparison of Average Rates by Year Due
'3 Per $1,000 of assessed value. 3


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23
29

KEY ISSUES:

San Juan County?s per capita income is the second highest in the State at $60,489, but the
average annual wage is well below the State average at $33,890.

I The majority of personal income in the County comes from property income.

Eleven percent of San Juan County's population lives below the Federal Poverty Limit. It is
estimated that another 22 percent lives above this limit but does not earn enough to afford
basic households needs.

5.3.3 Employment

In addition to migration and natural increase, housing and employment opportunities are key
variables influencing population change. Traditionally employment stimulates the demand for
housing, however, over the past forty years San Juan County has followed a different path by

becoming an affluent retirement community with low wage employment options.

For the majority of the 20th century, the County was home to a relatively small and stable
population with an economy that centered on fishing, farming and logging. in the mid 1960?s San
Juan County begin to transition away from these core industries to a tourism based economy due
to a lack of secondary processing on the islands and increased competition from mainland
industries. As the County?s median age and retirement population has trended upward
employment participation has predictably declined. Table 5?5 presents rates of labor force
participation of two five?year periods. Labor force participation has declined by over 3 percent
dUring this period while the number of unemployed individuals and families with two working
parents has increased.

Table 5-5. San Juan Coun Population Employment Statum" . 
ztin'sebih- ?2?011-?2?015

   
         

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

. swarms . Estimates .. Estimates
Population 16 years and over 13,366 13,983
In labor force 61.2% 58.0%
Civilian labor force 60.7% 58.0%
Employed 58.9% 54.6%
Unemployed 1.3% 3.4%
Armed Forces 0.4% 0.0%
Not in labor force 38-8% 42.0%
Civilian labor force 8,119 8,110
Unemployment Rate 3.1% 5.9%
Own children of the householder under 6 years? 613 587
All parents in family in labor force 51.3% 68.3%
Own children of the householder 6 to 17 years 1,710 1,573
All parents in family in labor force 73.2% 76.4%

 

 

Source: US. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey Echar Estimatea

 

Io Own child refers to a never married child under the age of 18 in a family or a subfamily who is a son or daughter, by birth, marriage, or adoption,
of a member of the householder's family, but not necessarily of the householder. Source: AC5 2013 Subject De?nitions.

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18
19

20
21

Table 5-6 breaks down the County workforce by occupation and industry. Service occupations
have surpassed sales and office occupations to become the second most common in the County
behind management, business, science, and arts occupations. Between 2010 and 2015,
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining employment has more than doubled in the
County.

The 2009 Recession should be noticed as having had an effect on the statistics in Table 5-5 and
5?6, as the 2011~2015 AC5 covers a time during which the County was in the immediate process of
recovering from that financial crisis. it is difficult to measure the full scope of the Recession's

effect on the County?s economy and employment data.

Cine type ofjob that is not represented in this table but, anecdotally, has become more
commonplace in the County is those whose occupations allow working remotely. increased

telecommunication capacity in the County and the ubiquity of remote workstation tools such as

Skype for business have made the islands more attractive to high wage earners who can
"telecommute" to jobs that can be far removed from the physical location of the County.

Table 5?6. San Juan County Population Occupation and Industry.

    

occu?PATIoN

2006-2010

2011-2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Estimates Estimates

Civilian employed population 16 years and over 7,370 7,633
Management, business, Science, and arts occupations 36.5% 37.7%
Service occupations 18.9% 22.0%
Sales and office occupations 21.3% 19.1%
Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations 16.5% 13.7%
Production, transportation, and material moving occupations 6.3% 7.5%



Civilian employed population 16 years and over 7,870 7,633
Agriculture, forestry, ?shing and hunting, and mining 1.5% 3.6%
Construction 16.7% 11.9%
Manufacturing 2.3% 4.5%
Wholesale trade 1.8% 1.5%
Retail trade 10.2% 9-3%
Transportation and warehousing, and utilities 5.7% 5.0%
Information 2.1% 23%
Finance and insurance, and real estate and rental and leasing 3.5% 6.5%
Professional, scientific, and management, and administrative and waste 15.0% 11.8%
manage-merit services
Educational services, and health care and social aSsistance 14.7% 17.1%
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, and accommodation and food 13.2% 15.4%
serwces
Other services, except public administration 4.8% 6.0%
Public administration 3.1% 4.3%

 

Source: LLS. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Figure 5-7 shows the ratio of employees in each industry in the County, along with the average

annual wage for that industry in 2016. This graph shows that the jobs most common in the County

20

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halloare also some of the lowest paid. Accommodation and Food Services along with Retail Trade make
up a third ofjobs in the County while paying on average $22,324 and $30,981 respectively.

Figure 5~7. San Juan County Covered Employment Classi?ed by Industry, 2016:17

   
  
 

Other
Utilities 537'355 Accommodation
$75,633 and food services
522,324

Professional and
technical services
$55,141

Manufacturing
$39,737
Arts,
entertainment, and
recreation
$19,296
Educational services
$36,207 GOVERNMENT

545,724
Other services,

except public
administration
$23,062

 

Health care and
social aesistance Retail trade

Construction
30 534 $30,931
5 $33,062

Source: Employment Security Department. Quarterly Census of Employmeut BL Wages

Employment in San Juan County is heavily seasonal and unemployment rates typically fluctuate up
to 3 percent between their low point in January and the high in August.? Figure 5-8 shows the
dramatic change that occurs from one season to the next. Once again, this data paints the picture
of a County whose economy is highly driven by the tourism industry.

Figure Su?. Unemployment Rate, Non-Seasonally Adjusted, 2016

 

 

 

 

7.00%
5.00??
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
San Juan County ?Washington State - -l(lng County

 

 

 

 

Source: Washington State Dept. oFE-mployment Security, Labor Area Summaries

 

The number below each industry label is the Average Annual Wage for that industry In 2016.
1? 



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OLD

POM?l?I?h-J?i?k?l?h?l


NIP-J
LOP-J




KEY ISSUES:

I Employment participation in the County is declining as the median age increases.

Tourism heavily affects employment in San Juan County leading to large seasonal swings in
unemployment.

I One third of workers are employed in low wage jobs in the accommodation, food services,
or retail trade fields.

5.4 Housing Inventory

To estimate future housing needs properly, the makeup of the current housing stock must be
understood. According to the 2015 American Community Survey (AC5) 5-Year estimate, there
were 13,619 total housing units in San Juan County or 1 housing unit for every 1.2 residents.
Standard economic theory would suggest that the abundance of housing units would put a
downward pressure on prices. However, in San Juan County the housing price trajectory over the
last decade has been almost exactly the opposite. A large population of second and Vacation
homes in the County mostly explains this phenomenon.

The numbers in Table 5-7 are derived from both the decennial censuses of 2000 and 2010 as well
as the 2015 ACS 5-Year Estimate. These data sets cannot be directly compared because the ACS is
an average over a 5?year period rather than a single point in time. The two sets together are
useful for insight into current demographic trends.

San Juan County housing unit inventory increased 37 percent from the 2000 Census to the 2010
Census. Since the 2010 Census, development in the County has slowed, and the ACS 5-year
estimate for 2015 shows a meager increase of 306 Housmg Units since the 2010 Census.

Table 5-7 illustrates a disproportionate number of vacant housing units in San Juan County.
According to the 2015 ACS 5-year estimates, vacant housing units made up 9.3 percent of all total
housing units in Washington State. San Juan County had 43.4 percent vacant units in the same
pedod.

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ITale5-7. San WuContyosin lnventory19._ .
2000 2010 Change l'rt'trll

   
    

2015 ACS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canons Census 

I T0131 ""115 9,752 13,313 +3561 13,619
Owner occupied 4,754 5,360 +606 5,507
Renter OCCU FllEd 1,712 2,253 +541 2,201
Vacant housing units 3,236 5,700 +2414 5,911

Percentage of Total
OCCU PlEd 48.75% 40.26% -8.49% 40.44%
Renter occupied 17.56% 16.92% -0.63% 16.16%
Vacant housing ?"115 33.70% 42.82% +9.12% 43.40%
Vacant Housing Unit by Type
For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use 2,775 4,743 +1972 4,808
For sale only 32 187 +105 222
For ram 129 311 +182 214
Rented or sold, not occupied 53 57 -5 111
For migrant workers 0 5 +5 0
Other vacant 236 392 +156 556

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: 1.1.5, Census Bureau, 2000 Census, 2010 Census, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Of the 3,561 new housing units created in the County from 2000 2010 (356 per year), 56 percent
were built for or converted to housing categorized as being used for seasonal, recreational or
occasional use in 2010 (see Table 5?7 in Section 5.4.1). Vacant Housing units overall increased

GINGER-LEM

ED

11
12
13
14
15

their share of total housing units during this time frame by 9.1 percent.

Figure 5-9 compares the number of new residents in the County to the number of new housing

units built since 1980. In the 19805, there was one new housing unit built in the County for every

2.88 new residents. During the 19905 that figure dropped to 1.1. From 2000?2010, the ratio of

new housing units created to the number of new island residents was over 2 to 1. This has left the

County in a situation where desPite having 13,619 housing units in 2016 for a population 16,314,
there is still a lack of affordable and accessible housing in San Juan County.

 

'9 The Data In this table for 2016 was calculated by the ACS using annual surveys conducted during 2011-2015 and are representative of average
characteristics during this period. Data from the AG cannot be directly compared to Census data.

23

NMAND RANGE Comp_Plan\Public 



?59599.191'5'9? 1930491?

 

?1,500

4,042

4,000
3,500
3,000
2.500 2,197
2,000

3,577 3,561
1,500
755

1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000 2000 2010

1,000

500

     

El New Residents I New Housing Units

 

 

 

Source: Sit: 0CD Housing UnityI Data Assembled 2017. Data on Population Figures and Housing Unmulled from 1-15 Cehsus

Figure 5-10 shows the number of housing building permits issued in the County from 1930?2016.
After a construction boom during the 1990?s. construction of new houses slowed over the past
decade, and construction of new multi?family housing projects has almost entirely ceased.

There is a lack of multi-family housing units in the County in general. In 2015, 84 percent of
structures in the County were 1-unit detached structures, as opposed to 63 percent statewide.

Figure 5-10 also shows the trend of multi?family units developed since 1930. Only 3.4 percent of
the structures in the County consist of ?ve or more units, compared to 19.5 percent statewide.?
No new multl-family unit permits were issued from 2009-2015. Due to low multi?family unit
production over the past 35 years the County now has a lack of diversity in its housing structures.

Figu re 5-10. San Juan County Housing Permits, light-2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

?500



1980 1932 1934 1986 1938 1990 1992 1994 1995 1993 2000 2002 2004 2006 2003 2010 2012 2014 2016

San Juan County Housing Permits Unit Permits

 

 

 

Source: Washington State Employment Security Dept. San Juan County Data Tables

 

1? Source: 0.5, Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

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KEY ISSUES:

Development of new housing units has declined since the 1990?s, and development
continues to slow since the recession of 2009.

San Juan County shows a lack of diversity of housing types with sparse numbers of multi?
family units.

There is no shortage of housing units in the County. There are 1.2 residents for every
housing unit. However, the majority of these units are unavailable because the County has
a disproportionately large population of vacant housing units due to its status as a vacation
destination.

From 2000-2010, 56 percent of all new housing units were being used for seasonal,
recreational or occasional use.

5.4.1 Vacant Units

For the purposes of this Housing Needs Assessment, the term "vacant? means the definition for
"Vacant Housing Units? as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau?:

housing unit is classified as occupied if it is the usual place of residence ofthe
individual or group of individuals living in it on Census Day, or if the occupants are
only temporarily absent, such as away on vacation, in the hospital for a short stay, or
on a business trip, and will be 

A housing unit is classified as vacant if no one is living in it on Census Day, unless its
occupant or occupants are only temporarily absent such as away on vacation, in the
hospital for a short stay, or on a business trip and will be returning. Housing units
temporarily occupied at the time of enumeration entirely by individuals who have a
usual residence elsewhere are classified as 

Vacant units are subdivided according to their housing market classi?cation as
follows:

For Rent These are vacant units offered "for rent" and vacant units offered either
?for rent" or "for sale.?

Rented, Not Occupied These are vacant units rented but not yet occupied,
including units where money has been paid or agreed upon, but the renter has not
yet moved in.

For Sale Only These are vacant units being offered "for sale only,? including units in
cooperatives and condominium projects if the individual units are offered "for sale
only." If units are offered either "for rent" or ?for sale," they are included in the "for
rent? classification.

Sold, Not Occupied These are vacant units sold but not yet occupied, including
units that have been sold recently, but the new owner has not yet moved in.

 

21 Source: 2010 Census Summary File, Technical Documentation, U.S. Cen5us Bureau September 2012

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?Kim




MM
LBJ




L003




For Seasonal, Recreational, or Occasional Use These are vacant units used or
intended for use only in certain seasons or for weekends or other occasional use
throughout the year. Seasonal units include those used for summer or winter sports
or recreation, such as beach cottages and hunting cabins. Seasonal units also may
include quarters for such workers as herders and loggers. Interval ownership units,
sometimes called shared?ownership or time?sharing condominiums, also are
included here.

For Migrant Workers These include vacant units intended for occupancy by
migratory workers employed in farm work during the crop season. (Work in a
cannery, freezer plant, or food-processing plant is not farm work.)

Other Vacant If a vacant unit does not fall into any of the categories specified
above, it is classified as "Other vacant." For example, this category includes units
held for occupancy by a caretaker orjanitor and units held for personal reasons of
the owner.?

The majority of vacant units in the County consists of units described as ?For seasonal, recreational
or occasional use.? Despite the gains made in overall housing units from 2000-2010, only 17
percent of new units were owner-occupied and 15 percent were renter?occupied in 2010. Over
that same period, 1,972 units were added to the County?s stock of seasonal, recreational or
occasional use units. Seasonal, recreational or occasional use units represent 56 percent of the
total of all new units.

Renteraoccupied housing remained relatively stagnant as a proportion of total units during this
period but still showed a modest decline. These trends indicate that the islands are an area with
an increasing number of housing units being bought or built by non?County or part-time residents
as second homes for vacationing or investment properties. This means that any forecast of future
housing needs in the County must anticipate over 50 percent of new units will not be built for
ownerwoccupied units meant for full time County residents.

Table 5-7 also shows the conversion rate of owner?occupied housing units to vacant housing units.
From 2000?2010 the rate of conversion was roughly six percent or about 21 housing units per year.
During that same period there were roughly 48 new vacation rental permits issued per year
according to SJC Department of Community Development (0CD) vacation?rental permit data
assembled in 2015 (Figure 5?15 in Section 5.4.6). This indicates that the majority of new vacation
rentals permitted from 2000-2010 did not come from the stock of owner~occupied housing.

Each island in the County is not affected equally by the high percentage of vacant units. Table 5?3
shows that despite having only 24.4 percent of the total housing unit stock in the County, Lopez
Island also maintains a nearly equal share of the number of vacant units. Lopez has the highest
number of housing units per resident (1.32 housing units for every resident) yet maintains the
lowest percentage of rental units of any island in the County. The percentage of housing units on
San Juan, Circas and in Friday Harbor are mostly in line with their share ofthe total population. The
equal share of vacant units per island would suggest that those looking to purchase second or
part?time seasonal homes are not constrained by typical economic or geographic factors
motivating population movement through the rest of the County.

26

MAL-AND RANGE Comp_Plan\Publlc 



Table 5-8. Housing Inventory by Island, 2010.
Total of Vacant '36 of

    

Island Area

 

 

 

 

 

. Units Total Units Total
San Juan County 13,313 5,700 2,253
Lopez Island 3,249 24.40% 1,861 32.65% 345 15.31%
Orcas Island 4,515 33.91% 1,854 32.53% 326 35.56%
San Juan lsiand 5,549 41.68% 1,985 34.32% 1,082 48.02%
Friday Harbor 1,273 9.56% 253 4.53% 513 22.77%
Unincorporated San Juan Island 4,276 32.12% 1,727 30.30% 559 25.26%

 

 

Source: US. Census Bursa". 2010 Census.

KEY ISSUES:

I The majority of vacant housing units in the County are categorized as
"For seasonal, recreational or occasional use."

I From 2000-2010, roughly 21 housing units per year were converted from owner-occupied
to vacant units.

5.4.2 Age and Condition of Housing Stock

One strength of the County is the average age of its housing stock. Figure 5-11 shows the
breakdown of the County?s housing stock by age. About 45 percent of the houses in San Juan
County were built in the year 1990 or later, as opposed to 36 percent in Washington State. ideally,
this would mean that the County might not need to devote quite as many resources to maintain
the upkeep of the existing aging housing stock as other areas in our state. Only 19 percent of
houses in the County were built before 1970 while the rest of the State sits at 33 percent.

Figure 5_-11. Age of Housing Stock, 2011-2015

 

 

- - 

Built 1513-21 or earlier 

Esuili 19:10?) 19-49 

Built 1951:) U1 1 tars-=1 517.: 

l'tnill 1,950 In 19:39 - 

Huilt :m'inm - 

?Hill" tn .1 533'.) 7T: 
HlJIlr t0 1999 - 
Huilt RUDD 2.0023 1: I . -. 3 

E-tiilt or later

0?34: 1 it'd-E: 2 C1350- 5?33

 

 

 

 

Source: 0.5. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

There is limited Census level data on the condition of living quarters but according to the ACS,
there has been an increase in occupied housing units lacking complete plumbing facilities from 1.7
percent in 2010 to 3.2 percent in 2015. The rest of the State has remained flat at 0.5 percent over
this same period. Additionally, occupied housing units lacking complete kitchen facilities has
doubled from 0.9 percent in 2010 to 2 percent in 2015, again while the rest of the State has
remained static.

27

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According to the local family resource centers, there has been an increase in the number of
families living in substandard housing with poor conditions such as trailers or recreational vehicles,
and it is not uncommon for people to live some or all of the year in a tent. Also, the largest
percentage of respondents to the County?s 2017 Point in Time Homeless Count were those living
in substandard structures (see Section 5.5.5).

KEY ISSUES:

I Many of the County?s housing units (45 percent) were built after 1990. Only 19 percent
were built before 1970.

I The number of occupied housing units lacking complete plumbing facilities and/or
complete kitchen facilities have increased. Information on substandard housing in the
County is incomplete, but local family resource centers have stated there has been an
increase in those seeking services in the County who are living in substandard housing.

5.4.3 Median Home Values

According to the ACS 2015 5-year estimate, the median home value for San Juan County is
$465,500. The median home price in San Juan County has risen every year since 2012, increasing
by 8 percent in 2014, 6 percent in 2015 and 6 percent again in 2016.22

The Washington Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) places the median resale price of homes
in the County in the first quarter of 2017 at $453,100. The median resale price is nearly 30 percent
higher than the rest of Washington State. Because the County is a desirable tourist and second
home destination, homebuyers must compete for housing not only with other County residents
but also with people from all over the world.

Anecdotally, one contributing factor to high home values and difficulties in creating affordable
housing (see Section 5.4) is the reputed higher cost of construction on the islands. The cost of
transporting certain building materials from the mainland and a small labor pool of skilled local
labor means considerably higher construction costs and challenges than other areas of the State.

As seen in Figure 5?12, Median Wages in both San Juan County and Washington State have
remained relatively stagnant since 1997 while Median Home Prices rose dramatically from 1997 to
2007 before seeing a decline due to the Great Recession and have begun to climb again. This graph
illustrates that the Median Wage of the County and State do not appear to be factors that
influence home prices.

 

22 Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research, Housing Market Snapshot State of Washington and Counties First Quarter 201'?
28

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1Figure 5-12. Median Home Prices Compared to Median Wages, 1997-2014

 

 

 

 


Scoomu
$500,000
$100,010 
5200.000
5100.000
So
199? 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200(5- 2033 2009 2011 3.013 5?01"! Lil'J?le?l
?Me::iinn Hrmn:l i-"rirrl Sili' in?ation adinslerl Median Home Price WA inllatlon adjusted
Median Wage SIC ladiusted for inflation) ?Mc(linn Wage WA [adjusted for in?ation}

 

 

 

 

source: Runstad Center for Real Estate Research; 
Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI Inflation Calculator

Figure 5?13 lays out the owner-occupied housing stock in the County by value. According to the
2011-2015 AC5, homes in the County valued at over $300,000 make up 74 percent of owner?
occupied units. There is a lack of units available between $100,000 - $300,000; half of all owner-
occupied houses in Washington State fall into this range, but only 22 percent of the owner-
occupied houses in San Juan County are valued in this range. This graph also does not take into
account the value of houses considered vacant, which represents 43 percent of the County
housing stock, meaning that the percentage of houses in the County valued at less than $300,000
is likely even lower. 01' owner?occupied dwellings on the islands, 43 percent do not have a
mortgage. This is 13 percent higher than the State average.

Figure 5?13. Dwner?Occu pied Housing Stock by Value (Thousands of Dollars), 20110015

 

Source: 0.5. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates



RANGE PROJECT Camp_Plln\Puhllc 

KEY ISSUES:

I Home prices in San Juan County have risen every year since 2012, and appear to be
uncorrelated to median wages. This implies that economic forces outside of the local
County economy drive housing demand in the County.

. Only 22 percent of owner-occupied houses in San Juan County are valued between
$100,000 and $300,000, compared to 50 percent in the rest of Washington State.

I The median resale price of homes in San Juan County in the first quarter of 2017 was
$453,100, 30 percent higher than the rest of Washington State.

5.4.4 Vacation Rentals

The rise of online vacation rental (VR) services like Airhnb23 and VBRO (Vacation Rentals by Owner)
has created new pressures on vacation destination community housing supplies, often in
unexpected ways. Figure 5?14 shows that the number of vacation rentals has been steadily
increasing in the County since the year 2000, long before the increased popularity of online VR
booking websites.

DeSpite the continued growth of VRs in the County, VR permitted dwellings only made up 7
percent of the total housing stock in 2015 (see Figure 5?15) and 15 percent of the total vacant
housing stock. This figure does not account for vacation rentals that are operated without a
permit.

Figure 5-14_ Total No. of Vacation Rental Permits, 2000?2016

 

Him
l?lill
illut['00 201 3 01 ll

 

 

 

Source: SIC DCD VR Permit Data Assembled 2016

 

25' From Airbnb.:om; "Founded in August of 2003 and based in San California, Airbnb is a trusted community marketplace for people to
list. discover, and book unique accommodations around the world."

30

n;\mno ussuone RANGE Cump_PIan\Puhlic 



arr-?Imam

Figure 5-15. Housing Units by Dccu pancy Type, 2015

Vacation Rental
Permits
'I's

 

Source: 11.5. Census Bureau, 2000 Census. 2010 Census, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates,
Source: 51C DCD Vii Permit Data Assembled 2016

While 7 percent of County housing stock is made up of vacation rental (VR) units, this is not
alarming. The ratio of new VR permits to new housing units being built tells a different
story. Vacation rental units have maintained a steady and modest growth over the past 10 years,
while at the same time the number of new dwelling unit permits has seen a steady decline (see
Figure 5?16). This means that although there has not bean a large jump in the total number of VR
units over time, VR units are becoming a larger and larger proportion of housing stock.

From 2005-2010, there were on average 5.5 new dwelling units created in the County for every VR
permit issued per year. From 2011-2015, there were only 2.18 new dwellings units per VR permit
per year.? Figure 5?17 depicts the different types of housing stock?s changing proportions over
the past 15 years. The trend of declining housing building permits appears to be a greater issue
than the trend of increasing vacation rentals.

Figure 5-16. Vacation Rental Permits Compared to Dwelling Unit Permits

 

 

 

0111;311:111 Rent-tit. Dwelling Units Linear [Vacallun Rentals} line.? {Not-.1 Dwelling lJIiiI?vl

 

 

 

 

sumac oco ya Permit Data Assembled 201s

 

2" Source: ch oco vs Permit oata Assembled 2131s

31

RANGE Comp_Plen\Puhllc 

mummnm

(Figure 5-17. Housing Units by Dccupa ncy Type

 

 

 

 



14.000

1.1.1130

IUJXJU

3.0011

6.00!)

Jill!)

3.002!
37000 2010 20113
I Vat .Iimn lit-HIM Pouniis .115 El? 
21 Homer Uccuoiud Homing Uilil'i 1.71} 3.7% 3.901
I Vacant Housing Unit'- 4.9in
I Denier Housing Uniis furl-i 5.360 5.50)

 

Source: 0.5. Census Bureau, 2000 Census. 2010 Census. 2011-2015 American Community SUNEV 5-Year Estimates
Source: 51C DCD VP. Permit Data Assembled 2016

KEY ISSUES:

I The number of vacation rentals in the County has steadily increased since the year 2000,
making up 7 percent of the total housing stock in 2015.

. From 2005-2010, there were 5.5 new dwelling units created in the County for every
vacation rental permit issued per year.

II From 2011-2016 there were only 2.18 new dwelling units per vacation rental permit.

5.4.5 Rental Housing

As shown in Table 5-7, renter-occupied housing units only make up roughly 16 percent of all
housing units. This Is over 50 percent less than the percentage of renter occupied housing units in
Washington State as a whole (see Figure 541.3 below). While the high number of vacant housing
units accounts for some of this disparity, it is also worth noting that renter occupied housing units
make up only 29 percent of the total owner occupied housing stock, whereas in the rest ofthe
state that renter occupied housing makes up 33 percent. This contrast is even starker when
comparing the percentage of total rental units.

32

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Gowns-rho2?1

Flgu re 5-13. Renter Occupied Units as a Percentage of Total Housing Units, 2011-2015

 

San Juan County Washington State

I limiter occupied Units

I fill i?Jilmr Housing Umis

   

 

 

 

 

Source: 0.5. Census Bureau. 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

Figure 5-19 illustrates the County?s inventory of rental housing units by gross rent. 0f the rental
stock in San Juan County, 25 percent have a gross rent of $1,250 or more a month. San Juan
County has a large population of rental units with no cash rent, 13 percent of all rental housing
units in the County (4 percent is the statewide average). It is hard to speculate on the details of
rental units without cash rent, but these units likely consist primarily of accessory dwelling units
on properties where the tenants labor in lieu of rent. Similarly, many units that have less than
$500 rent are apt to be a similarly subsidized arrangement.

Figure 5?19. Rental Housing Units by Gross Rent, 2011-2015

51,500 or more. 
220 No cash Rent, 272

  
 
 
 
 
  

51,250 to 51,499, 

315 Less than 5500.

230

5500 to 5749,

ass
$1,000 

367

.5?50 to $999,
441

Source: U.5. Census Bureau, 2011?2015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

The 2011-2015 AC5 Survey estimated there are 3,533 households in the County who make
$50,000 or less annually (see Table 5-4). An affordable rantal unit is defined as rent including
utilities that costs no more than 30 percent of the household?s gross income. Assuming a

33

mama usauam; RANGE Comp_Plan\Publii: 

01utility cost of $215 a month?, the maximum rent that would be affordable to someone at
the top ofthis income bracket would be 51,035. As seen in Figure 5-19, there are only 1,299
rentals in the County with gross rent below $1,000. That equates to one affordable rental unit for
every 2.7 households making $50,000 or less.

Anecdotally, the rental market in San Juan County tends to be volatile and seasonal. More housing
is typically available in the winter months when there is less demand for rental housing from
seasonal workers, and homes that were used for vacation rentals during the summer months are
temporarily used for semi-long term tenants when demand is lower. Coupled with an extremely
low vacancy rate, even the loss of one rental housing unit can lead to an Entire family relocating
off island. This puts tremendous economic pressure on renters in San Juan County who must live
in uncertainty. In a healthy housing economy, there is a steady stock of vacant rentals available
for people experiencing short or long~term economic transitions due to job or housing losses.

KEY ISSUES:

I Renter-occupied housing units make up 16 percent ofthe houses in San Juan County,
roughly 50 percent less than the ratio in the rest of Washington.

I One fourth of all rental units in the County cost $1,250 or more a month.

I For households in the County making $50,000 or less, there exists only one affordable
rental unit for every 2.7 households.

I Rental housing in the County can be volatile and is affected by seasonal economic shifts
and part-time residents.

5.5 Affordable Housing

The Growth Management Act defines affordable dwelling units for sale as:

?Housing with mortgages that consume no more than thirty percent of the
owner's gross annual household income,? 

More specifically, San Juan County Code 13.60.3260 defines affordable housing as:

"Affordable housing is housing where the occupants pay no more than 30
percent of gross income for total housing costs, including the cost of
property taxes and insurance for homeowners and utilities, excluding
telephone, for owners and renters. Except where further specified in the
Comprehensive Plan and this code, "affordable housing? refers to such housing
serving as the primary residence for very low?, low?, moderate? and middle?
income households. The definition of income groups by household size shall be

 

15 Assumption based on rates for Orcas Power and Light Company (Opalco), Eastsound Water 3i. Sewer District and Eastsound Water User
Association. Upalco average bill ls roughly 5120 according to 
lnsights Set-Rates-?spdr

Eastsound Sewer and Water District rate is $43 a month: 

Eastsound Water Users Associatlon has a base rate of $47 a month: 


34

RANGE Comp_Plan\Fublic 

mm?mm-hmM?I


haw?most recently defined by the 0.5. Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD) for San Juan County."

Table 5?9 below sets out HUD's income limit guidelines for 2017. HUD defines these guidelines as:

limits that determine eligibility for assisted housing programs
including the Public Housing, Section 8 project-based, Section 8 Housing Choice

Voucher, Section 202 housing for the elderly, and Section 811 housing for

persons with disabilities programs. HUD develops income limits based on
Median Family income estimates and Fair Market Rent area definitions for each
metropolitan area, parts of some metropolitan areas, and each non-
metropolitan county.?

Table 5-9. HUD Area Median Income Limit Guidelines, 2017??.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- . . I . BASE
person persons persons persons persons persons
San
Juan Extremely Low 30% 14,250 15,250 20,420 24,600 28,780 32,950
County $67,600 Very Low 50% 23,700 27,050 30,450 33,300 35,550 39,250
Low 80% 37,900 43,300 48,700 54,100 58,450 62,800
Moderate 95% 44,950 51,400 57,800 64,220 53,350 74,500
Middle 120% 55,300 64,900 73,000 81,120 87,500 94,100
Low Upper 150% 71,000 81,100 91,250 101,400 109,500 117,500

 

Source for 2017 Median Income, Extremely Low, Very Low, and Low Categories:
s: ortal da asets ?2 17 1

.

l1

Between the years 2012-2013, San Juan County created the Community Conversations Report?.
This report arose out of a series of roundtable discussions on Orcas, Lopez, San Juan and Shaw
islands involving over 500 participants regarding the quality of life, size, shape, and service level
priorities of County government moving forward. Cine theme that arose frequently during these
conversations was the topic of affordable housing and its importance to not only low-income

households. The report also highlighted the need for better affordable housing options for
middle?income households as well. It goes on to say:

"Without a more diverse economy that includes high+tech jobs, diversified

agriculture, more affordable housing (for seasonal and permanent local jobs), and
regulations that support cottage industries, the Islands will likely see a continued

slow decline in the economy and the number of available jobs (particularly family-
wage rather than minimum-wage jobs).?

Table 5-10 paints the picture of housing affordability in San Juan County. This table projects an
affordable home price for a household based on their annual income, assuming only a five percent
down payment and an interest rate of 4.5 percent. Although 45 percent of the County population

has an annual income of $50,000 or less, only 17.81 percent of the houses in the County are

 

?5 Moderate, Middle and Low Upper data was calculated by multiplying the Median Income by the Income Limit partentage to derive the 4 person
limit, and then multiplying that number by 70 percent for 1 person, 80 percent for 2 persons, 90 percent for 3 person, 103 percent for 5 persons and

116 percent for 6 persons and then rounded to the nearest 550.

1? 

RANGE 

35

 

valued at a price that would be considered affordable for this income bracket. This table also
shows the gulf between what the County considers affordable housing for nearly 50 percent of the
population and County home price values. This table only represents theoretical home prices
based on Census data. Prices for houses actually available for sale are likely to be won higher.

Table 5-10. San Juan County Housing Ownership Affordability, 2015?.

    

Affordable Down Maximum

Mortgage Payment Horne Percent of House'holdsat Percent Of Owner-Occupied

Houses Valued near Maximum
Home Price Level

1
2
3
4
5
6




Income

Expense Amount of 5 Purchase Annual Income LeVei Range
(P St Percent Price

$25,000 $520 $103,075 $5,425 $103,500 20.4% ($24,999 or less) 503% ($124,999 or less]
$50,000 $1,040 $205,200 $10,300 $210,000 25.5% (525,000 to $49,000) 12.73% ($125,000 to $240,000)
$75,000 $1,560 $307,300 $16,200 $324,000 13.4% ($50,000 to $74,999] 235% ($250,000 to $399,999)
$150,000 $3,125 $617,500 $32,500 $550,000 24.5% ($75,000 to $149,000] 53.09% ($400,000 and up]

7 Source: 0-5. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5?Year Estimates

9 The median resale price of a house in San Juan County in the first quarter of 2017 was $453,100
10 and the 2017 Area Median income (AMI) for a family of four according to HUD was $67,600. The
11 maximum mortgage including taxes and homeowners insurance that would be affordable to a
12 median income family of four with no other debts and no down payment would be $235,060.

13 That means there is a gap of nearly $170,000 between what the average house in San Juan County
14 sells for and what the average San Juan County family can afford.

16 Affordable housing in San Juan County directly affects the economic and social makeup of the

17 community. Those who wish to make their lives on these islands do not have the economic

13 freedom of movement available in other communities because it is so cumbersome to commute
19 to and from the mainland to work. This housing gap for those in low-income brackets can in turn
20 lead to a shortage of workers for island businesses, directly affecting the overall economic health
21 of the 

23 The Lopez Family Resource Center in their 2017 Affordable Housing Assessment states the case for
24 the importance of affordable housing in San Juan County:

25

26 "Having suf?cient affordable housing is vital to retain residents and provide them
27 with the opportunity to thrive and reach their full potential. Affordable housing
28 allows households to set aside money to save for emergencies, improve their health,
29 further their education, expand employment, have high quality childcare and/or
30 invest in their future, all of which builds more financial security.

31

32 Stable Housing Means Stable Children? Research indicates that children who

33 experience a high degree ofturbulence are more likely to have high levels of

34 emotional and behavioral problems. Lack of regular, stable housing, and the

35 resulting transitions, can negatively affect children?s development, including their
30 physical, social?emotional, and cognitive development.

37

 

2? I"Uses 25 percent of gross income threshold, 30-year fixed rate mortgage, 4.5 percent interest assumption
29 Principle 82 Interest

36

RANGE PROJECT Comp_Plan\Publlc NA.ducu







moo-Stable Housing Means a Healthier Community? Improving housing conditions has
shown to reduce health care spending, improve public health, and increases
productivity. All of which create a healthier Lopez community.

Stable Housing Means Economic Development? Sufficient affordable housing also
has a multiplier effect for local economies making it easier for employers to attract
talent, create jobs and boost spending by its residents.

Stable Housing Sustains a Year Round Community- Lopez has experienced many
positive benefits from investing In local solutions for affordable housing. We see a
more stable school population, small businesses dEVeloplng, an increase in EMT's
and firefighters and other volunteers, less stress among household members all
because people have stable, affordable housing."

Table 5-11 shows the distribution of households in San Juan County by income within HUD's Area
Median income. By far the most common subset is households making more than 100 percent of
the area median family income who own their home, followed by owners making between 50 to
80 percent of AMI and renters making above 100 percent AMI. Of the households in San Juan
County, nearly 40 percent have income that is considered either low, very low or extremely low
according to guidelines. Those making less than 30 percent of the AMI are the second most
common subset of renter households (see Figure 5-20).

Table 5-11 also projects how many households will be in each subset by 2036. If the County
maintains its current distribution of household income, we would expect to see 2,083 households
living in the County below 50 percent ofthe AMI by 2036, and 3,728 households categorized as
either low income or below.

Table 5-11. Households by Area Median Income Distribution, 2010?2014.

   
    

Owner Renter Total 29 10.29? 2036

. . s3 .: Proceed
Household Income c: 30% HAMFI 330 495 825 10.83% 1,031
Household Income 330% to #5096 HAMFI 475 355 840 11.03% 1,050
Household Income 2-5096 to c=80% HAM Fl 355 460 1,315 17.27% 1,544
Household income a80% to c=100% 305 10.57%

HAMFI 595 210 1,006
Household Income >100% HAMFI 3,225 505 3,830 50.30% 4,739
Total 5,430 2,135 7,615 9,521

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data 2010-2014

37'

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Figure 5?20. Percentage of Renter Households by HAMFI, 2010-2014

Household Income c: 30% 
Household Income #3096 to #50945 HAMFI
Household Iticome 2905310 $809?- HAMFI
I-Iouselioiri Income 52.09% to c:=100% HAMFI

Household Income #10094 HAMFI

0.00% 5.005?; 10.00% 1.5.0096 25.00% 30.00%

 

 

 

Source: HUD Comprehensive Housing Affordability Strategy Data 2010-2014

KEY ISSUES:

I The Area Median Income as defined by HUD in San Juan County in 2017 is $67,600.

- There is a nearly $170,000 gap between what the County considers an affordable house for
those making the Area Median Income and the median resale price of a home.

I Eighteen percent of houses in the County are valued at a price that would be considered
affordable to the 46 percent of households making $50,000 or less.

I Approximately 3,728 households that are considered low income or below by HUD
standards are projected to be living in San Juan County in the year 2036.

5.5.1 Housing Affordability Index

Island County's 2016 Comprehensive Plan Update describes the Washington Center for Real Estate
Research (WCRER) Housing Affordability Index (HAI) as:

?Measures the ability of a middle-income family to carry the mortgage payments on
a median price home. It is calculated using a ratio of Income to the minimum outlay
necessary to qualify for a mortgage on a median priced home. An index of 100
means there is a balance between the family?s ability to pay and the cost. Higher
indexes indicate housing is more affordable and lower indexes indicate housing is
less affordable."

The HAI for San Juan County in the first quarter of 2017 was 79.3, a full 44.5 points lower than
Washington State?s 124.3 HAI (see Table 5-12).

This Indicates that housing in San Juan County Is unaffordable. In fact, housing in San Juan County
is the least affordable in the State?. San Juan?s HAI has decreased by almost 23 percent in the last
yeah

 

3nS-lource: Washington Center for Real Estate Research, Housing Market Snapshot State of Washington and Counties First Quarter 2017

38

RANGE Comp_Plan\Publlc 

mummthFinding an affordable house can be particularly difficult for first time homebuyers as first time
homebuyers tend to have less capital to invest in a property and thus must pay higher interest
rates and a higher payment. The HAI for first time homebuyers in San Juan County in the
first quarter of 2017 was 37.5, meaning it was extremely difficult to find an affordable house
during this period.

While it is expected that houses will be less affordable for someone buying their first home, the
HAI for a first time home buyer in San Juan County was 53 percent than for all home buyers
in the County. Compare this to the statewide first time HAI that was 42 percent lower than the
HAI for all homebuyers in the State. Market conditions in the County make access to the housing
market for most people looking to buy their ?rst home unfeasible. inability for first time
homebuyers to participate in the market contributEs to the County?s increasingly skewed age
demographics.

Table 5-12. Median Resale Price and Housing Affordability Index 1? Quarter 2017?.

   
 

 

Median Resale Price Flr'st- time Home Buyer
Q1 2017 (S) HAI
San Juan County $453,100 79.3 37.5
Washington State $32d,300 124.3 21.4

 

 

 

Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research, Housing Market Snapshot State of Washington and Counties First Ililuarter 2017

Figure 5-21 shows how the HAI in San Juan County and Washington State have changed over time.
Despite the gap in affordability, this graph shows a strong correlation between the in the
County and statewide. It would seem that as affordability rises or falls in Washington as a whole,
so goes San Juan County (albeit roughly 65 points lower on average).

Following the Great Recession in 2009, housing affordability rose both in San Juan County and
across the State until it peaked in 2012. Over the past 5 years, housing affordability has steadily
declined and if this trend continues, the HAI will soon reach pro-recession numbers.

Figure_5-2_1. Housing Affordability 

 

190.0
140.0
90.0
40.0
?I?San Juan County State
.02 d" .ci" d" d"
- ?I'll-W- an}. egg), wh' m?j- i
?lr 'l.r ?tr ?ir fl: 

 

 

 

Source: for Real Estate Research, Housing Market Snapshot State of Washington and Counties 2008-2017

 

31 Affordability index measures the ability of a typical family to make payments on median price resale home. It assumes 20 percent down
payment and 30-year amortizing mortgage. First-time buyer affordability index assumes a less expensive home, lower down payment, and lower
income.

33 Quarter 2 for 2016 was used rather than Quarter 1 as there was a statistical anomaly that quarter which showed a large jump not seen in 04 of
2015 or Q2 of 2015.

39

usEltLoNG RANGE Paoitcrs\PcoMPL-17-o001 Comp_Plan\Public 

KEY ISSUES:

. San Juan County?s Housing Affordability Index was 44.5 points lower than the rest of the
State in 2017. By this measure, the County is considered the least affordable in the state.

. First time homebuyers are particularly disadvantaged in the County?s housing market due
to the considerable personal capital needed in order to afford the necessary down
payment for an average price home.

Despite being considerably less affordable than the rest of Washington State, fluctuations
in the affordability index of San Juan County since 2003 show a correlation with the State's
housing market as a whole.

5.5.2 Housing Costs

The HAI measures the theoretical affordability of a family to purchase a new house, but does not
address the affordability of the population?s current residents. Table 5?13 speaks to the lack of
affordable housing in San Juan County. Again, affordable housing meaning housing where the
occupants pay no more than 30 percent of gross income for total housing costs, including
the cost of property taxes and insurance for homeowners and utilities for renters. Those
paying greater than 30 percent of their income on housing costs are considered ?cost?
burdened."

There were 3,100 cost?burdened households in San Juan County in 2015 (39 percent of
households) according to the 2015 Washington Store House Needs Assessment created by the
Washington Affordable Housing Advisory Board. If that ratio continues, it means an additional 613
costrburdened households in San Juan County by 2036 for a total of 3,713 households.

Table 5-13 shows the percentages of population income brackets paying more than 30 percent, 20
to 29 percent, and less than 20 percent in 2010 and 2015 for both renter and owneruoccupied
housing units. Over those 5 years, the percentage of cost-burdened households has increased in
nearly every income bracket. There is no indication that this trend will cease or slowdown in the
future and it is likely that more and more residents in the future will be paying a greater share of
their income to housing costs. Households considered cost burdened are likely to have
difficulty paying for other essentials such as insurance, food, heating, car payments, etc.

40

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mmth-?O

    

2010 Household Income

Owner-occupied housing units

No Cash Rent
. Dr

Zero/Negative
income

$20,000

520.000 to

$35,000 to
$49,999

Table 5-13. Housing Costs of Occupied Housing Units as a Percentage of Household income.

$50,000
to $74,599

$75,000
or more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1.1% 12.5% 12.0% 15.7% 21.9% 36.7%
Less than 20 percent 11percent 10% 15% 22% 20% 22%
30 percent or more 79% 55% 39% 37% 21%

Renter-occupied housing units 8.0% 22.3% 24.6% 15.7% 20.6% 3.3%
Less than 20 percent percent 15% 23% 46% 47% 23%
30 percent or more 32% 67% 33% 7% 0%

 

 

 

2015 Household Income

No Cash Rant 

0?
Zero/Negative
income

$20,000 to
$34,999

$35,000 to
$49,999

$50,000
to $74,999

$75,000
or more

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Owner-occupied housing units 0.8% 3.6% 14.4% 13.2% 19.3% 43.7%
Less than 20 percent 10percent 12% 17% 19% 22% 22%
30 percent or more 73% 53% 45% 37% 11%

Renter-occupied housing units 13.3% 23.6% 18.4% 16% 14.4% 13.7%
Less than 20 percent percent 14% 22% 44% 49% 15%
30 percem or more 36% 72% 43% 13% 2%

 

 

 

Source: 0.5. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Source: 0.5. Census Bureau. 20114015 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

The lack of affordable housing options in San Juan County affects nearly every income
demographic. In 2015, 37 percent of households in the $50,000 to $74,399 income bracket who
own their homes (roughly 759110 percent of AMI) were cost?burdened. Households with
extremely low income, less than 520,000, are cost-burdened at a rate of 73 percent.

Figure 5-22 displays how the number of cost-burdened owner and renter households have

changed between 2010 and 2015. Every population demographic of household income has seen
an increaSe in the number of households with housing expenses considered unaffordable
except those making $75,000 or more. The largest increases came from those making between

$35,000 and $74,999. This indicates that low-income households have been struggling with

housing costs for some time, and it is becoming much more common for middle and moderate?
income households to experience cost-burdened housing.

41

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males-cam



Figure 522. Occupied Housing Units paying >30 Percent of Household Income to Housing Costs

 

35?" 31% 3225


i5
is It.
.2-
5

1- rrs' 63%
3.1 01%
3
fl":
A
is? use.
is
CL
:2
4-114.
5 ?152-.
:12: 3395.
3
359:.
TI
is
ass.
C) 251:. .2294.



n:

1595
II 10%

['56
5ch 
asgomo 534939-71 511mm ssomnm $74,999 5751!]Ommnre
now I 2015

 

 

 

Source: US. Census Bureau, 2006-2010 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates
Source: U.5. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey 5?Year Estimates

KEY ISSUES:

There were 3,100 cost-burdened households in San Juan County in 2015, and 3,713 are
projected to live in the County by 2036.

I From 2000 to 2010, the percentage of cost-burdened households increased in nearly every
income bracket in San Juan County.

I The lack of affordable housing options affects nearly every income bracket.

I it is becoming more common for middle and moderate-income households to become
cost?burdened by housing.

5.5.3 Homelessness

The Washington Homeless Housing and Assistance Act requires that each County in Washington
State conduct an annual point-in-time (PIT) count of sheltered and unsheltered homeless persons.
This census is conducted in accordance with the rEquirements of the U.S. Departmem of Housing
and Urban Development (HUD). The 2017 (PIT) took place on January 25, 2017.

Table 5-14. San Juan Count Point in Time Homeless Count, 2014?2017.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

20 [4 2015 2016 2017
Individuals Considered Homeless 44 74 5g 95
Individuals Considered at Risk of Homelessness 21 50 45 53
Total 55 134 104 154
Source: SJC Health 8. Community Service PIT Data Assembled June 2017

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MN
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woo





The year?to?year count in San Juan County tends to be volatile depending on volunteer
participation and weather. In 2017, the highest PIT count ever was recorded for San Juan County.
Individuals are considered homeless if they are living outdoors, either in a vehicle, or in a
substandard structure lacking one of the following: drinking water, a restroom, heat, ability to
cook hot food, or the ability to bathe. Those living temporarily with family or friends are
considered at risk of homelessness.

The highest percentage of respondents during the 2017 count were those living in substandard
structures33, suggesting that even those who may live in housing that is statistically considered
"affordable" can still be living in an unsafe or sub?par shelter. San Juan County Health 8i
Community Services expects that the number of individuals in the County considered homeless
will continue to rise as the County improves its PIT Volunteer recruitment and methodology,
leading to increased identification of those in the County living in substandard housing.

KEY ISSUES:

I The 2017 Point in Time Count recorded the highest number of individuals considered
homeless or at risk of homelessness residing in the County since the inception of the count.

I The highest percentage of respondents during the 2017 count were those living in
substandard structures.

5.5.4 San Juan County Affordable Housing Programs

San Juan County Health 8: Community Services Department administers affordable housing
programs in the County. These programs are funded primarily through document recording fees
(see RCW 35.22.179), as well as State and federal grants. Currently there is no specific local
funding source for affordable housing in the County and San Juan County is one of two counties in
Washington without a Housing Authority. Some of the programs administered by the County are:

1. Senior 8: Disabled Rental Subsidy Program
Begun in 2009, this program provides rental assistance to extremely low?income seniors
and people with disabilities below 30 percent of the area median income. Funded by RCW
36.22.179 document recording fees, the program has averaged $60,437 awarded per year.

2. Emergency Rental Assistance Program
Also begun in 2009, this program helps low?income people who are in immediate need of
rental assistance to avoid eviction or to facilitate a move to new housing. The program is
administered by the Family Resource Centers on Lopez, Drcas and San Juan Islands.
Funding for this program has come from a variety of sources including the United Way,
FEMA, the Opportunity Council, private donations and RCW 36.22.179 document recording
fees. This program has averaged $14,355 in funding awards per year.

3. Very Low-Income Housing Fund Awards
Bogun in 2005, this program provides funding to local nonprofits and developers, as either
grants or loans, for construction, operation or maintenance of projects that serve families
or individuals earning less than 50 percent ofthe area median income. Funded by RCW

 

33 Source: 51C Health 8; Community Service PIT Data Assembled June 2017
43

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30

36.21176 document recording fees, this program has averaged $38,760 in grant awards
peryean

4. Equity Loan Program for First Time Homebuyers
Funds for establishing this revolving loan fund were from two grants to San Juan County
from the Housing Trust Fund in 1997 and 2001. The program provides soft second
mortgages to fill the gap between what low income San Juan County residents can afford
and what modest housing actually costs in the County. Since the fund?s inception, the
County has been able to provide down payment assistance to 59 families in the County
making 80 percent ofthe area median income or less.

In March 2016, the County Council authorized the creation of a workgroup to develop an
Affordable Housing Strategic Action Plan (Appendix 1). The goal was to develop four to six
prioritized actions to address housing issues. This workgroup consisted of County and Town of
Friday Harbor staff, local business owners, school board members, and non?profit directors.
Through their discussions, the workgroup identified six specific housing needs:

1. Long?term Rentals; Serving individuals making between $15 SRO/hour; Rent Range $680 
$940/month.

2. Longuterm Rentals (studios 8t one-bedroom units); Serving individuals with limited or fixed
incomes; Rent Range 50 - SEED/month.

3. Long-term Rentals; Serving individuals making over SEQ/hour; Rent Range $940 - $2,000

4. Short-term, Reduced Amenity Housing leg. dorms, studios. shared occupancy); Serving
Seasonal Temporary Worker; Rent Range $400 $500/month.

5. Homeownership; Price Range $80,000 - $275,000.

6. Housing with Supportive Services (eg. Transitional or Group Housing).

To address these needs, the workgroup identified 16 distinct actions aimed at increasing or
maintaining the availability and affordability of housing stock in San Juan County and prioritized
these five specific actions:

Identify and recommend a local affordable housing funding measure.

Develop a capital account to be used to purchase existing units when available.

Expand home repair and weatherization programs.

Develop a partnership program to build affordable housing units and explore
using publicly owned land to construct units.

5. Regulate vacation rentals yearly permit with fees, inspections, ensure lodging tax is
collected, add an impact fee to be used for affordable housing).



5.5.5 Housing Groups and Non-Profits

There are a number of different groups and nonprofits working in the County to provide
affordable housing. The Lopez Community Land Trust, OPAL Community Land Trust, the San Juan
Community Home Trust, and Homes for Islanders are all housing nonprofit groups in the County

44

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mummth-m

who combined have created approximately 293 housing units,? representing about four percent
ofthe full time occupied housing stock. An additional 233 units are planned or in development.

The homes built by the three Community Lanleome Trusts aim to be permanently affordable,
with resale restrictions in place to ensure that these homes remain affordable to the same income
group over time and construction subsidies that benefit multiple families rather than solely the
first owner.

Additionally, the Opportunity Council is a private, nonprofit community action agency operating
out of Bellingham that serves San Juan County in a variety of different ways including Tenant
Based Rental Assistance and weatherization programs. The Family Resource Centers on each
island play a pivotal role in connecting low?income County residents with housing and many other
poverty alleviation programs.

5.5.6 Affordable Apartments

In 2017, there are 130 "affordable apartments" representing about two percent of the full time
occupied housing stock in San Juan County. These apartments were largely constructed using
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) low interest loans and subsidized with Low
Income Housing Tax Credits. However, the number of apartments in the County with income
restrictions is declining and there have been no new Low Income Housing Tax Credit financed
projects in the County in nearly 25 years nor is USDA currently financing any new developments.

In the past, new multi-unit developments were constructed in the County using USDA loans with
affordable unit restrictions to finance projects. The program works with private?sector lenders to
provide financing to increase the supply of affordable rental housing for low- and moderate-
income individuals and families in eligible rural areas and towns.

Once the USDA loan is repaid, these developments can then raise the rent of all of their units to
market rate, effectiVely eliminating their units from the affordable housing stock. As well, if a
development is foreclosed and sold at auction, the USDA affordability requirements are
extinguished. Two such complexes in the County have already returned to market rate, with more
scheduled to lose their affordability requirements over the planning horizon (see notes on Table Sn
15).

At the same time, there have been no new USDA developments to take the place of those
returning to market rate rents. In part, this is due to changes in the federal tax credit program and
the economy of scale required to make affordable apartment complexes feasible.

5.6 Land Availability

Land availability information not available at the time of this draft. It will be assessed in the land
capacity analysis.

 

34 See Table 545. San Juan County Low-Income Housing inventory, 2017
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5.6.1 Housing Targets and Capacity

This Section will be completed after the land capacity analysis is clone.

5.7 Conclusions

The housing issues that plague San Juan County can largely be attributed to traditional economic
factors of supply and demand, the simple fact that the average wage in the County is too low for
average residents to compete in a housing market with such high domand and low supply. Since
the County has little ability to influence average wages in the County or housing demand, the
Housing Element informed by this Housing Needs Assessment must then propose goals, policies
and action strategies to influence the supply of housing in the County, specifically affordable
housing.

Policies in the Housing Element should encourage the creation and preservation of affordable
housing for both low and middle-income families that is permanently affordable, and incentivize
the creation and preservation of year round rental housing and multi-family unit housing. These
policies should promote a diversity of housing opportunities in the County, work to decrease
occurrences of substandard housing, and continue to support local non-profit housing providers
while also appropriately planning for the additional housing need created by future population
growth. Enacting such policies will promote a more vibrant and balanced economy, with stability
for local workers, families, and businesses.

46

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3

 

5.8 San Juan County Low-Income Housing Inventory

SAN San Juan
JUAN Community Home

Trust:

Homes For
lslanderss

Ad?West Property


Diamond 

Table 5-15. San Juan Cou

Low-Income1 Housl

 

lal

Rise
rd Cove

rk PI

ou Villa Estates

arbor Grove
eCourt

Meadows
oft

rida Harbor Vii 4
rborvlew5
sland Meadows?

osewooda

rd Park?
lna Meadowsm

PAL mons
Brae
Oberon
Oberon 

OPAL Comm. Land Lam?

Trust2

Homes For
3

Ad-West Property


Lopez Comm.
Land Trust2

Diamond 
AL

RANGE Cnmp_PIan\Publl: 

Wild Rose Meadow
Scattered Sites
OPAL Reddick
Orcas Villa

Bea
Lavender Hollow

nd Estates

North Beach Gardens

Drcas house11

an Town

Coho

Innisfree

Common Ground

Common Field
l'tl'l'lEl'ItS

?l'lerra Verde

Salish 

LCLT

Westvlew

 



47

2017.

0
0






0
0

1

Table 5-16. Other Affordable Options - No Income RestrictionsAGENCY on I2 a Is :3 Cl
ISLAND OWNER DEVELOPMENT 9 . s. 
SAN JUAN The Oaks The Oaks 73 78
Harbor Ridge
Mobile Home
Harbor Ridge Park 63 12 75
TOTAL 0 78 63 12 0 153

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Notes for Table 5-15:

1.

7.
B.

9-

Qualifying residents must have incomes at or below 80 percent of Area Median Income (AMI).

80 percent of AMI - 2017:

1-Person Household $37,900
2?Person Household $43,300
3?Person Household $48,700
4?Person Household $54,100
5?Person Household $58,450
Iii-Person Household $62,800

Community Land Trust Permanently Affordable nonprofit w/ resale restrictions for home ownership.

Homes For Islanders Sweat Equity nonprofit, with or without resale restrictions for homeownership.

Friday Harbor Village - Property sold at public auction In 2015, extinguishing affordability requirements. Units go
to market rate when vacated or in 2013, whichever Is sooner.

Harborview Affordability requirements set to expire in 2034. Eligible to expire in 2004 if USDA loan paid off.
Island Meadows - USDA loan repaid in 2012. Six long-term tenants paying income-based rent through USDA
voucher program; as they vacate, units will go to market rate.

Islewood - Affordability requirements set to expire in 2039.

Rosewood- -Affordability requirements set to expire In 2030.

Gerard Park? Senior 8: Disabled only Affordability requirements set to expire 2044.

10. Surlna Meadows- Affordability Requirements set to expire 2042.
11. Orcas Longhouse- nonprofit Senior EI Disabled apartments. Affordability Requirements set to expire 2035.
12. Westview Apartments Affordability Requirements set to expire 2040.

43

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5.9 Matrix of State, Federal, and Private Housing Programs

Table 5-17. Matrix of State, Federal, and Private Housing Programs.

State Housing Programs

Service
Workers

Empty

Program Nesters

Low Income Housin Tax Credits
Wash Hous Trust Fund

Housin Enhancement Grant
Washington State Operating 3L
Maintenance

Rehabilitation Grant

rarn

Horne and Rehabilitation HOME

enant Based Rental Assistance HOME

Wash on State Home-Choice ram
Wash on Home Adv

House Rural Pro 

Non ofit Facilities Bond Pr

Non Hou Bond 

WA state Operating Assistance for Muitl


Muitifam Hou

Populations Served

aclal Law
Home Elderly Homeless Lenders
Populations Income
Buyers

49

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Owners]
Operators

 

Federal Housing Programs Populations Served

Program

Service Empty
Workers Nesters

First Time
Home
Buyers

Elderly 

Special
opulations

Low
Income

Homeless Lenders

Owners]
Operators

 

Rural Housing Loans Section 502



 

Rural Housing Site/Self Help Loans Sec
523/5216



 

Rural Rental Housing Loans See. 515

 

Rural Rental Housing Loans Sec- 521

 

Very Low Income Repair Loans/Grants Sec
504

 

Rural Housing Preservation Grants Sec.
533

 

Rural Rental Housing Guaranteed Loans
Sec. 538

 

Mortgage Insurance Homes Sec. 2030:)




 

Rehabilitation Mortgage insurance Sec.
203(k)




 

Manufactured Home Purchase Insure.
[Title 1)

 

Mortgage Ins. For Condo Projects Sec.
234w)

 

Mortgage Insurance COOP Prolects Sec.
213




 

Mortgage insurance for Purchase of
Condo's Sec.234 (El

 

Mortgage Insurance Rental Housing Sec.
207

 

Mortgage In5urance Rental/COOP
Housing Sec. 221 (CINE)

 

Mortgage Insurance Rentals for Elderly
Sec. 231

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

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Supplemental Loan Ins. Multifamily
Rental Sec 141 

 

Mortgage Ins.for Purchase/Rafi of Multi
family Sec. 223(fl/207



 

Mortgage Insure. Manufactured Home 8t
Lot (Title 1)

 

Mortgage Insure. Single Fam. COOP Sec.
203 

 

Mortgage Insure. Military Impacted Areas
Sec 233 IE)

I

 

Mortgage Insure. For SRO's Sec. 221(di

 

Supportive Housing for Elderly Sec. 202

 

Graduated Payment Mortgage Sec. 245
(9) Is)

 

Operating Assistance for Multifamily

 

Supportive Housing for
Persons/Disabilities Sec. 811



 

Emergency Shelter Grants

 

Supportive Housing - Homeless

 

Shelter Plus Care

 

Home Investment Partnership Program
HOME









 

Self Help Homeownership Opportunity
Program

 

CDBG Section 103 Loan Guarantee

 

Teacher Next Door initiative

 

Single Family Property Disposition

 

Dollar Home Sales



 

Assisted Living Conversion of Multi Family

 

Public and Indian Housing - Loan
Guarantee

 

Specially Adapted Housing for Disabled
Veterans

 

Veterans Housing - Guaranteed and
Insured Loans

 

Veterans Housing Direct Loans for
Disabled Vets

 

Veterans Housing Manufactured Home
Loans

 

Transitional Living Program for Homeless
Youth

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Private Housing Programs

Program

Populations Served

Service
Workers

Empty


First ?me
Home
Buyers

Elderly

Special
Populations

Low
Income

Homeless Lenders

Owners!
Operators

 

Impact Capital Predeveiopment Loans





 

Community Investment Fund/ED
Development Fund

 

HomeStart Program

 

Multifamily Permanent Loans Special
Needs

 

Tax Exempt Bonds for Housing
Development

 

Community Land Trusts

 

1st Time Buyers, Multi Family, Single
Family

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

.51

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4.1?1.
run?mom

APPENDIX

52

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RESOLUTION ND. !3 .2017

Resolution Adopting the San Juan County Affordable Housing Workgroup
Strategic Action Plan

accessible affordable housing concerns have been confronting San Juan County for
many years;

WHEREAS, numerous studies and community forums have documented housing concerns for
low and moderate income households countywide;

WHEREAS, in March 2016 the County authorized a workgroup to develop an Affordable
Housing Strategic Action Plan;

WHEREAS, a workgroup was convened and included leaders in business, housing non-pro?ts,
the building community, school districts, Town of Friday Harbor, conmiunity action groups, and
county 

WHEREAS, the workgroup held five meeting between March and November 2016, and
developed a Strategic Action Plan that includes a vision, identi?ed needs, strategies, actions, an
implementation timeline, and measures to monitor success;

WHEREAS, on January 24, 2017 the County Council reviewed and provided input on the
Strategic Action Plan; and

WHEREAS, on February 15, 2017 the Housing Bank Commission reviewed, provided input and
recommended that the County Council adopt the San Juan County Affordable Housing
Workgroup Strategic Action Plan

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED by the County Council of San Juan County,
state of Washington, as follows:

1. The San Juan County A?ordable Housing Workgroup Strategic Action plan attached as
Exhibit A is hereby adopted.

2. The San Juan County Housing Bank Commission will oversee and report aunually to the
County Council on the implementation status of the identi?ed actions.

Resolution No. - 2017
Page 2 of 9

5T
ADOPTED thile day of M?gd 2017.

ATTEST: Clerk of the Council COUNTY COUNCIL
SAN JUAN COUNTY, 

3 ?120.13

Ingrid Gabriel, Clerk D?t? ?5 Wk-

Hugh?a??, Chair
District 2

REVIEWED BY COUNTY MANAGER

.
MM Tim-ll?" BillWat50n,Vice?Chair

Michael J. Thbmas Date Dism'ct 1

    

RANDALL K. GAYLORD
APPROVED AS TO FORM ONLY

5/3/17

Date

 

 

Resolution# '3 4017 EMQB ofq

Appendix A

San Juan County
Affordable Housing Workgroup

Strategic Action Plan

March 10, 2017

sentence minnow Cl

Affordable Housing Workgroup
Strategic Action Plan

Overview: Affordable housing issues haVe been confronting the county for many years with numerous
studies and community fonn'ns documenting hoesing concerns for low and moderate income households
countywide. Recent reports and studies include, but are not limited to: 2015 Washington State Housing
Needs Assessment; Draft Housing Action Plan dated May 20] Opportunity Council's Prosperity Project
2015, United Way ALICE Report 2015; and 2015 San Juan Island Community Foundation Needs
Assessment.

In March 2016, the County Council authorized a Workgroup to develop an A??ordahle Housing Strategic
Action Plan. The goal was to develop four to six prioritized actions to address the housing issues.
Actions Were to consider all areas including: regulatory, funding, in?'asnucture costs, and land costs.

The Workgroup held ?ve meetings between March and November 2016 and developed the attached
Strategic Action Plan. The Action Plan includes a Vision, Identi?ed Housing Needs, three Strategies,
sixteen Actions, an Implementation Timeline, and Measures to Monitor Success. The Workgroup
prioritised the following ?ve actions, however, the workgroup indicated all actions should be
implemented within the identi?ed timefreme:

Identify and recommend a local affordable housing funding measure.

DeVelop a capital account to be used to purchase existing units when available.

Expand home repair and weatherization programs.

Develop a public/private partnership program to build affordable housing units and explore using
publicly owned land to construct units.

5. Regulate vacation rentals (cg. yearly permit with fees, inspections, ensure lodging taxis
collected, add an impact fee to be used for affordable housing).

some

Workgroup Members:
Bob Jarman - County Council Richard Brown - Lopez Village Market
Duncan Wilson - Towa Administrator Greg Winter - Opportunity Council
Lisa Byers - OPAL Community Land Trust SteVe Hushebeck - Visitors Bureau 8: Town Council

Jacob Linnea - Island Market Brent Snow - School District Board

Jason Linnea - Island Market Janet Browne" - OI School District Board

Sandy Bishop - Housing Bank Commission a Erica Shook - SJC Department of Community

Lopez Community Land Trust Development

Libbey Oswald Kings Market Mark Tompkins gigEEeglth dc Commuwty

Peter Kilpatrick - Raveuhill Construction

Resolution soft pages cf?]

Affordable Housing Workgroup
Strategic Action Plan

Vision: Twenty years ago the citizens of San Juan County created a vision for the ?xture. It
included the goal to ?Foster a sense of neighborliness and commnnity pride so that there is
housing for people of all incomes." Efforts to date have fallen short. Today there is a
de?ciency in our affordable housing supply. As a commonity we understand the importance of
sustainable affordable housing. We envision healthy, safe housing options for all who live here,
including those who Work, whether seasonally or fullutime, as well as those who are on ?xed
incomes.

Identified Housing Needs:

I Number 1: Longuterm Rentals; Serving individuals making between $15 - $20/hour;
Rent Range $680 $940/month.

- Number 2: Long?term Rentals (studios 8e one~bedroom units); Serving individuals with
limited or ?xed incomes; Rent Range $0 a MED/month.

- Number 3: Long-term Rantals; Serving Individuals making over SEED/hour; Rent Range
$940 $2,000

II Number 4: Short-term, Reduced Amenity Housing g. dorms, studios, shared
occupancy); Serving Seasonal Temporary Worker; Rent Range $400 - MOO/month
Number 5: Homeowner-ship; Price Range $80,000 - $275,000

In Number 6: Housing with Supportive Services Transitional or Group Housing)

Strategy 1: Educate Public on the Availability and Affordability of Housing in San Juan County.

Actions?:
A. Develop Frequently Ask Question (FAQ) documents
3. Develop buildable land analysis 
C. Complete housing needs analysis 
D. Develop and implement a community engagement plan [l?I 

Strategy 2: Increase the Availability and A?ordability of Housing Stock in San Juan County.

Actions:

A. Identify and recommend a local affordable housing funding measure 

B. Consider incentives for construction of accessory dwelling units (ADUs) for year-
round rentals with third party monitoring density bonuses, change land use
designations to allow on smaller lots; change land use to allow to be built further
from main house, on a separate septic system, etc.) 

C. Reduce permit fees and prioritize plan review for affordable housing projects 
and 

D. Regulate vacation rentals yearly permit with fees, inspections, ensure
lodging tax is collected, add an impact fee to be used for afferdable housing) 

 

1 Action Category Key: Regulatory Funding Political Will - Design

2

MthlE-ao17mage? cf?l

E. County and/or ToWn be positioned to apply for Community Development Block
Grants 

Develop a public/private partnership program to build affordable housing units
and explore using publicly owned land to construct units and 

Explore incentives and ?nancing plans with utility providers and 

Provide density bonuses to property owners creating affordable multi-family units


Evaluate ?farm Worker housing' provisions to expand its use 

Explore use of lodging tax funds for seasonal worker housing and 

['11

as:

h?rl?l

Strategy 3: Maintain Existing Housing Stock that is Affordable.

Actimts:
A. Develop a capital account to be used to purchase existing units when available 
B. Identify and recommend a local a??ordable housing funding measure 
C. Expand home repair and weatherization programs for existing housing stock 

Prioritization of Actions:

The Strategic Action Plan contains sixteen (16) distinct actions aimed at increasing/manitaining
the availability and affordability of housing stock in San Juan County. The actions range from
educating the public to reconunending a local affordable housing funding measure. With the
number and range of actions the workgroup felt it was necessary to identify the top three to ?ve
actions. Actions designed to increase/maintain affordable housing stock were prioritized based
upon the dif?culty to implement versus the potential number of units that could be achieved
Actions contained under Strategy 1 were not included in the prioritization exercise as these
actions are designed to educate the public and not speci?cally to increase the number of units.

Listed below are the top five prioritized actions. However, the workgroup expressed support for
implementation of all actions within the identi?ed timeframes.

Identify and recommend a local affordable housing fending measure.

Develop a capital account to be used to purchase existing units when available.

Expand home repair and wealheriaation programs.

Develop a publicfprivate parhrership program to build affordable housing units and
explore using publicly owned land to construct units.

5. Regulate vacation rentals g. yearly permit with fees, inspections, ensure lodging tax is
collected, add an impact fee to be used for affordable housing).

seats:?

mmeri?2017;paga7 orfi

Implementation Timeline:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strategy 1: Educate Public on the Availability and Affordability at Housing' in San: Juan
County. . . .
'II?irnei'rame from
Action adoption by County Primary Owner
Council
A. Develop FAQ Documents 1 month Hri?cCS
B. Develop buildable land analysis 6 months DCD
C. Complete housing needs analysis 6 months DCD
D. Develop and Implement a community 3 months IDCD
plan
li?mtegjr-Zi Increase the Affordability and Availability 'of in aria Juan-County. 
Action Timeframe Primary Owner
A. Ideniify tie recommend a local affordable housmg 24 months HBC CC
fundmg measure
13. Consider incentives for construction of accessory
dwelling units for year-round rentals w/third party (Copnty DCD
ouncll)
contracts
C. Review fee structure for building permits; use of
stock plans; reduction/waiver for affordable 6 months DCD
housing projects; prioritize plan review.
D. Regulate vacation rentals 6 months DCD
E. Apply for Conununity Development Block Grants As needed Hr?i?rCS
F. Develop a public/private partnership program to Tom
build affordable housing units and explore using 12 months Administrator 35
publicly owned land to construct units County Manager
Cr. Explore incentives and ?nancing plans with 12 months Town, Lisa Byers
utility providers 85 Sandy Bishop
H. Provide density bonuses to property owners 6 months Town
creating affordable multiwfamily units 12 18 months DCD
I. Evaluate farm worker housrng prowsrons to 12 months CD
expand 1ts use
J. Explore use of lodging tax funds for seasonal 13 months County Manager
worker housmg
'-'Strategy . .I
Action Timeframe Primary Owner
A. Develop a capital account to he used to purchase 24 months HBC
eittsung umts
B. Identify and recommend a local affordable 24 months HE 
housrng funding measure
C. Expand home repair and weatherization programs 24 months HBC

 

San Juan County Health Sr. Community Services

San Juan County Department of Community Development
HBC San Juan County Housing Bank Commission

CC County Council

 

Monitoring Success

 

Availabilityand?ffortlab?ity of 'Honsin in-san Juan County. -

 

Action

Primary Own er{s}

Measuregs}

 

A.

Develop FAQ Documents



FAQ dccurnent[s)
Documents posted on county website

 

. Develop buiidable land analysis

DCD

Completed buildable land analysis

 


C.


Complete housing needs analysis

DCD

Completed housing needs analysis

 

. Develop and Implement a community

engagement plan



Community Engagement plan developed
Plan implemented

 

-- Strategy snowstorm-and hf Housing Stat-k in

San JuanCo'iinty. 

 

Action

Primary Ownerljs)

Measnrc(s}

 

A.

Identify recommend a local affordable
housing ?mding measure

HBC

Funding measure identi?ed

Funding measure place on ballot
Key messages developed

Funding measure approved by voters

 

Consider incentives for construction of 
for year-round rentals withird party contracts

DCD

Review feasibility of third party monitoring
contracts

Code language drafted

Code revision process initiated

Code language adopted

 

Review fee structure for building permits; use
of stock plans; reductionfwaiver for affordable
housing projects; prioritize plan review.

DCD

Fee resolution adopted reducing fees for
affordable housing projects
Plan review process revised to prioritise
a?'ordable housing projects

 

Regulate vacation rentals

DCD

Code language dra?ed
Code revision process initiated
Code language adopted

 

 

Apply for Community Development Block
Grants

 

HcitCS

 

Application submitted annually.
Block grant(s] obtained for housing projects

 

 

Resolu?cn?? -2017;pageg mti

 

F. Develop a publicr'private partnership program
to build affordable housing units and explore
using publicly owned land to construct units

Tovm
Administrator nit
County Manager

Develop publicfprivate partnership
Identify location{s]

Negotiated terms

Build project

 

G. Explore incentives and ?nancing plans with
utility providers

Town, Lisa Byers
Er Sandy Bishop

Utility incentives and ?nancing plans identi?ed
Utility providers implement incentives andfor
?nancing plans

 

H. Provide density bonuses to property owners
creating a?'ordable multi-family units

Town 
DCD

Code language developed
Code revision process initiated
Code language adopted

 

I. Evaluate ?farm worker housing? provisions to
expand its use

DCD

Farm worker housing provisions evaluated
Farm worker housing provisions modi?ed andfor
if necessary code amendments drafted

 

J. Explore use of lodging tax funds for seasonal
worker housing

County Manager

Review applicable law to determine use of
lodging tax ?mds

lfallowable, create lodging tax fund account for
seasonal worker housing

 

sense-seamen assess-amassedtenements. 

.. Use ?uids to develop seasonal worker housing 

 

Action

Primary 0wner{s}

Measurcfs}

 

A. Develop a capital account to be used to
purchase existing units

Capital Accotmt created
Funds identi?ed and place in account

 

B. Identify and recommend a local affordable
housing funding measure

See measures under Strategy 2 A above

 

 

C. Expand home repair and weatheriaation
programs

 

 

Funds identi?ed
Program expanded

 

 

mum -2a17:page ?l

 

 

51(- lemn'hanw! [Inn-{v 14.-

ri?uung (Iriusfmt;

 

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Overview

EMA Hausln; 
Background

Employment I Income! Affordability
and Firm" T??dl
Hauslng Mud Emmi.?

Quinlan: and Common?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing

Growth Mun-lament MI
Houllnl Elumnt

- To help omun viuliw and durum u!
nonhuman.

I Enmungl tho wall-bulb; a! a?nrdabl.
hunting In all.

I val-Int! uf danlitiu
Ind haunln: types, and

nmum?an CH "10' I?Mi?lnl


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GMA Update RequirErnEnts

Mandanrv Housing ElcrneInI requIrcmenIs:
Inventory analyze emistinl and projosteld housinll.r naads;
the number or units for prof-end growth;

Inoludn (oak, polIcIls. and for houslng prosoruatlon.
Improvement. and 

suf?cient End for housing; and

valdn "if Ind ?Who!? I'Ii?l! 511 oeonornle


10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Noeds Assessment

. Contlnuous PuhIIc ?n?nnd meImlnaw August drift
Incorporates puhllo comments on 
Re?ne! dn? after Count? I 
for housln] goals. poilcles and slnloilc ac'Ilons
Uses has! data:
Win Cums.
Ametlml Communlw Survey.
Washing en Ruhr. II Eeen and: Ann um Plelru,
?mcl 
Isf llnulln? ln? 

Ruumd Center for Hell Esme ?Iu-?es. and
21115 Weshlmon 51m Housinl Needs Assessment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demographics, Employment and Income

- Populu?nn
vAga

-mm @000

. Employment by Industry 6
- Income i Wages I Affordobiliw i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

51C Selected Population Projection:
Based on Its Proportionate Share of the State Projection


Menu?: 51: l'lunurtlurleh "mu?

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Older, Aging Population

I Min: population;
Len 20-40 Year with than State
Percent 20 to 40 Ear old:

Elite: 35%
County: 16%

W'I?li

State: MK
County: 58%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

San Juan County Point In Time Homeless Count, 2014-2017

The 2017 in Count mooted the hllhe? number ol'homele? or at 
Il?cl Ihl l??l?ll?l?l ?l 

- In substandard structures.

In- rPF-vJ-I-r-r?Prl 
 

51C Covered Employment Classified by Industry. 2016
. and Industry Average Annual Wage

??MM?f?l Jab! ll" i?l?l?l. #1111.
Phil!

. Accommodatlan, Food Saneu and 
Rehll "I'mda malnn up an I.11In:l all job: 1.2. ..

. Avmgu par between 
$23.00!: and 531.com 

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2015 Per Capita Income. I 2016 Average Annual Wage

11"! "Wm! ?1 5119-?? averale In 1016 me
was me second In Ihe Hue behInII 33535.; n? 51.1. m. ?m?j?i
County and Ienem huh e!

1:1 Cuunly

 

 

 

 

 


nn? - unu- pum-

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Employment and Income

and Incnmu Ill-:1 hauling 
"In ?udu-II up In 11% helween Jununrv? Mun?
. One of worker: are emplwed In low wane lab:
Employmenl I: 11::er alfeded bv Inurlsm Ind leunnal mung: In 

- Unlle? Way Intimates that in DI the Iwe: below the Fednnl Povenv
Ind nnth-r 25 abeu- IHII hul elem net ilIn nneugh In nIImd
ball: hnuuhaldi nee 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Income and Housing Affordability
San Juan County Code 18.60.26!)

- Occupants pay no more than 3095 of gross Income for total
housing costs. Including property taxes, insurance and 
utilities, excluding telephone {owners and renters}

'Alsn ?a?urdahie housing" refers to housing serving as the primary
residence for very low-, low-. moderate- and middle-income
households as defined by the us. Dept. oi Housing and Urban


10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

HUD Area Median Family Income (AMFI) Limit Guidelines, 2017

The County?s Area Median Family Income as defined by HUD 557,500.

I I 1 I I

CHM plan-I nun-M Hihhl p-i-om p?u?u pin?all Josh 11m .ujin sun;
Ill? ill?IN ll. HIGH Halli Ill?

Hui-ni- "is will UIp-n' 5N5 fl.? Him 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Household Income Distribution 2010-2014

. Home owner! making more Nun 1001C 
H?inn unmet: S?lu?m?AMllll! Ill! 
.t . v-r 
$55 4610 L315 :7 HM
i
5? no IDE1.15!? Let!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast-Burdened Households

  

 

 
 
    

Hun 
h! Ill )1 [wink
I1 pun-ml .- 

 

 

- 


.513 

mun-"mun
Hw-Mwnuu

 

PP. - 




 

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cast Bus-dined Huunhald Trends

QUNJH HI - I'd I1
E??nmuldem 

1

Ll? if npllunl 

mm hema- lam-Ll .
- Man ummnn fur Ind 

"Hume household! ?3 ?Hum! Co?t'bl?dl??d

mung I .

101:. Will llm??-hu?hn? I I

null I I
I 

5,113 
1035

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Affordable Home Price Basad on a Househuld's Annual Income

     
   
  

  
   

 
 
 
  
 

\mu ?Mum-In)

mm H-l-h limb imxm

HMEWMJWI. 

.mm la . 3150,.
Hum lildumunim dun-dull, nud II Hui-lit mun-u


5mm
mm

7n ?illum- 1m:
:5 an.? In How!
1! mm It! mum

 
     

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10/11/2017

 

Rantal Housing Units by Gross Rent, 2011-2015

 

 

#1 MHMI 

 

 

 

 

sins: mm; or 51.259 in mum/month

- 13% have no cash rent (495 State await}

- May be ADU: on properties where the 
tenant: labor In lieu of paying rent 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Look: Housing Affordability Index (HM)

 

Measure: the ability ol'e middle-u
income l'emllsiI to make mortgage .
payment! en a medlan horny - 

 

 

Based on a ratio of Income to the
minimum outlai,I needed to qualify - -
medlen priced home mortlege 15.5 37.5

 

 

1 5324.300 124.3 71.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Affordability Index (HAIL 2008-2017

HAI was 79.3, a full 44.5 points
1200?ng than the State?s 124.?- it" 

 

 

 


Least affordable County in State 
. First time buyers 
because of the down payment - 
needed for an average price home. lg" 

 

SINCE 2003. 
the State's housing marltet a:
a whole.

 

 

 

 

 

Affordability

- Gap of nearly $170,000 bethEn an affordable house for

those making the Area Median Income (AMI) and the median

resale price of a home-

'Dnly 13% pennant of houses in the County are valued at a
rice that would he considered affordable to the 46% of

nuseholds making $50,000 or less.

For households making $50,000 or less, there is one

affordable rental unit for every 2.7 households.



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Inventory

- iI-NI



. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Inventory

. 3,561 new housln bulls were created
between 1000-2056? hull! hf ?r tnnv-l?lnd It Il??nll lu'l-l
retreltlonai or ocnsionll (21 per yen] un
- 5.1M - 
- -- um
The malorlw ofuaemt units are used for - - I 
?non-l. "mallow! or Moll-lamwe? norm-dad from Owner - 
Dccuple to Want atrouihlvIl-Iu
um

ur-


In.?



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Haustng tnventery by Island, 2010

7. . mu mm mm

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- Lark e1 multl-I?lmilv heating unit!

11-? 
IJIF LII-I 
. u? Ln: InIfHousing Stock
and Substandard Hauslnn
- luau? 3.25?. in neeuplud
Inching complete 
r2010 to 20 51. State early at .556
- Famltv Resource Centers Indicate that the
number ?l ?millet Ihri? 1n 
houslni peer ten Ions luth II
Irallers, RV: orient: t: lnrreaslni
- Them 5: percent: eetremendentne
lhe "um Ien :Iurllwere the? 
In In Hand: structure:
Housing Types and
Housing Permits 1980-2016
- stewed ever the past:
In: II 
tn 2015,3195 of structure: were 1- . I -
unlt detached. 53% statewide . - .
- 1
361% $1 ?Wt-11.11111 ??11i1? (11'19?0 
or man! units, 19.5% itltiwl?i .
- New pmlett: almost d- .
entirelyI ceased between 2009-2015 . .. .- .- .I r- - -- 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- ntlu of 
housing unlL: cruatad In new
resident: was aver 2 la 1

DIINM 13.519 In 
EDIE I 15.314. hill-Ill?!
Hi In Issuar

   

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Occupancy

tuunlv Homer Drcuplnl: 16.16 5.
slatt- Renter nccupmrl ?at.

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hauslng Units by Occupancy Type, 2015

7% o! the housing stock are
Vlutiun Renal unlL:

UR unl'l?: haw: 
the pl? 10 

- New unit permiu haw.-
stnadv 

Not a largo Jump In tho natal
nUmher at unlu, bull they are
a larger share oftha
houslns stuck.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vacation Rental Permits Campared to Unll: Permit"-

Frum 2005-2010, lhEre were '3
en wart" 5.5 MW dwelling ?m
unlu created fer oval-v VB
permit quld plrvur 

Frum 2011-2016. thorn wan-r
unhr 2.218 new dwallinlr units
per VR permit per year.

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vacatlun Rental Permits

 

?l'oI-l HI. ur mum: I-nul I'Irml'll amen? um: ?mil"! 3m

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Owner-Occupied Housing by Value (10005), 2011-2015
and Median Value (MV)

5455.500: 2015 5-year Multan Valli: ullrnale

MIUIIH Pfl?i ?If rlnea 2012:
8% in 201?. 6% In 2015 and 6% in 2015

- Thu WA Cantor rm- Rm Elmo Ruemh:
$453,10u midll? null: prlu (201? 1"Quamrl -
hl?hlf thin ml 9! WA

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

Median Home Prices Compared to Median Wages, 1997-2014

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing Need Projectluns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2036 Housing Need Es?rneies

- Hand intelv an the erbium! pepula?en inemu er 3.10! 2036, 1.524 new
houslng unlu he needed. those, BUB would be a?lottld to Urban Growth
Areas.

Occupant!? needed: 1,097 for mner?oeeupied unit: and 428 for renter-occupied.
me 55% 111' h?uil?l Wm! built. fl? Fill-??ll, 

or occaslonal use. Based on trend In 853 housing unlu {1,524 5524}
would he needed to satisfy demand for seasonal or recreatlonaI use.

A total of 2,57? new housing unlls milht be needed to meet the 2036 housinl need:
for holh permanent residenu end reddenu.

BED ll Hi? ?Hon? populnlen ?Hill?! Whith chanl? 'Ihll
seasonal analym.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

12



 

 

2035 Housing Projections Based on Adopted Papulatlen

 

 

 

 

 

 

. II.II Inn uu in
In 1-H- r! I
lull null lull u- -

 

 

 

 

2036 Housing Projections Needed By Income Distributien

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

visit the Project Website
and
Subscribe fer Update News

 

 

- Planet website:


 

Subscribe In receive future nullce?
[Ink ?mini-min In Hun I?ll-Ir}

gag?)

 

 

 

 

 

 

13

 

 

Reserve Slides

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Changes in the October Draft

Intuit" Ind lnlrudunlurl

- Add?! ?mr mun' Summw Ira-mm?! 

mm min I Hum 1r!" In; new

- Emu-cud 1n Mull!? pm?dhn

I llpn?i? all m- unkl. undid

TIM-I Al?l?ld 

Il-wrulI put 01 Indium 511 Ind 
Inn-ind?! pith a! 5.4 [In 

ill-um 51!, Iii-l. l-Il?lnd a-u

m? t-mm 01 {mu-s 
Hamlin. Uni:

5.4.1
tiled put a! ludinn 

Id?ld [Inn la heludl sun 
- E-HMH 33.5

HMIHH Ill HUD 

MIG ?cmmunk?nmml?m

inland-d 

?Ill-Ii near? [mm Lap? ?me Ill?ll?l ?lm"
lluulln. 

lI'IllId Ind "we" 

Iddid Inuit-I ham M16 Ann-I4 HM

Add? ?men 

Add? le Ind Minn 
II 5-H

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 5-4.
Maior Components ofTotnl Personal Income. 2015 BLOOM)

The mujmity of income is
earned 111":th properly
Income.

- Earned Income can be
?named as campansnhon
for labor serwces

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

14

 

 

191,111?: 53-5.
m' fowl PFrimml Ii'lr'mne; 1'3le 3015

- Earned Income 22%
Property Income 16.9%
Transfur 5.0%

10/11/2017

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

15