APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Poll Report Westchester County Executive Election Snap Poll Astorino v. Latimer, Jeanne Zaino, Practice Lead, AT Research Solutions November 2, 2017 © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Contents Executive Summary Most Important Issue Direction of Westchester The Trump Effect If Election Held Today, Who Would You Support? The Survey Survey Results Methodology © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 2 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Executive Summary Key Findings 1. Less than a week before the election, Rob Astorino and George Latimer are locked in a statistical tie in the race for Westchester County Executive with 46% of respondents saying they will support Latimer and 43% saying they will vote for Astorino, while more than one in ten (11%) say they are unsure. 2. Almost half of respondents, 44%, say that the Trump administration is a factor in how they will vote in the race for Westchester County Executive. 3. Of those who say President Trump is a factor in how they will vote, almost three quarters (64%) say they will support the Democrat, George Latimer, while 27% say they will support the incumbent, Republican, Rob Astorino. 4. More than four out of ten voters (42%) say property taxes are the most important issue on their minds as they head to the polls; only 4% of respondents say that the candidates’ personal issues - which has been a topic of much discussion during the election - will impact on their vote. 5. Among those who say that property taxes are the most important issue facing Westchester, almost three quarters (71%) said they will vote for Astorino, compared with just 21% who are supporting Latimer. 6. Voters are almost evenly split when it comes to the direction Westchester is headed in, with slightly more than half saying they are dissatisfied (53%) and almost half saying they are satisfied (47%). © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 3 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Analysis Less than a week before voters in Westchester County, New York head to the polls in one of the most watched races in the country, a poll by AT Research finds that the race for County Executive is locked in a statistical dead heat. Just over half of respondents (46%) said that they will vote for the challenger, Democratic State Senator George Latimer, while an almost even number (43%) are supporting the incumbent Republican, County Executive Rob Astorino and 11% say they are not sure who they will support. This is the first public poll we have seen of this race which has captured the attention of the nation in this off-off year election in large part because Mr. Astorino is seeking his third term in a district in which registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 48% to 27% (the remainder are registered with third parties, independents, or unaffiliated). Despite the party imbalance, only two Democrats have been elected to the seat since its inception in the mid-1930s. For these reasons, the County Executive race - like the election for Governor of Virginia this year - is seen as a bell-weather in regard to whether the impact of the 2016 election and the “Trump effect” will reverberate down to the state and local levels. As it stands, President Trump has become a lightning rod in this race as the Democrats have tried to tie Astorino to the President and dysfunction in Washington D.C. Democrats have been buoyed by polls showing that the President remains unpopular amongst the majority in his home-state. The latest polls show that Trump’s approval rating in New York state fell 12 points in the first nine months of his administration (from 49% in January to 37% in September); at the same time the percentage of New Yorkers who disapprove of the job he is doing as president climbed17 points, from 41% in during his inauguration to 58% post-Labor Day. The question throughout this election season, the first since the President assumed office, is whether there will be a so-called “Trump effect” and whether his low approval ratings will impact key down-ballot races such as the one in Westchester? When asked almost half of respondents (44%) said that the Trump presidency has an impact on how they will vote in this election, while 47% said it will not have any impact and 9% said they are not sure. Among those who said it will have an impact on their vote, 67% said they are supporting the Latimer, while just over a quarter (27%) said they will vote for Astorino. These findings are consistent with results in the Virginia Governor’s race where just over a month ago, 39% of voters © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 4 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS reported that President Trump is a factor in their vote for the state’s top Executive this year. When it comes to the most important issue on their mind as they head to the polls next Tuesday (November 7) more than four out of ten respondents (42%) said they are concerned about property taxes. This finding is consistent with polling in previous years. In 2013, for instance, the economy was also the top issue on the minds of voters going to the polls in this race. That year, three out of ten said taxes were the most important issue and 50% said they believe the taxes are unfair. Four years later, a similar narrative is playing out as Westchester County residents continue to pay the highest property taxes in the nation. Both candidates have spent a good deal of time talking about taxes throughout the campaign. And when it comes to who voters see as more likely to deal with the situation, the results are clear. Among those who think property taxes are the most important issue, almost three quarters (71%) say they will vote for Astorino, while less than a quarter (21%) say they support Latimer. Among other issues of concern as voter’s head to the polls, none ranks nearly as high as property taxes; 16% said the most important issue impacting their vote is gun shows at the Westchester County Center, while 12% said jobs and the economy are the most critical, and 9% cited affordable housing. Notably while the campaigns and media spent so much time covering the candidates’ personal failings, only 4 percent of voters said this issue will play a key role in their vote. © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 5 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Most Important Issue The most important issue on the minds of voters as they head to the polls next week is property taxes. More than four out of ten voters (42%) said this is the most important issue, this dwarfs the other issues of concern including: gun shows as the Westchester County Center (16%), jobs and the economy (12%), and other (10%). These findings are consistent with polling in the previous Westchester County Executive race where the economy and taxes was the number one issue on the minds of voters. Interestingly, an issue that has consumed much of the air time during the campaign – the candidates’ personal failings from charges of skipping key votes, infidelity, failure to pay property taxes, and receiving expensive gifts in exchange for position – none of those issues seem to resonate much with voters. When asked, just 4% of voters said that the candidates’ personal issues will play a role in their voting decision. The following bar and pie charts below display the findings for this question, including those who chose “other” as an option. MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IMPACTING VOTE IN ELECTION © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 6 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Among voters who think that property taxes and jobs/economy are the most important issue, 71% and 49% respectively said they will vote for Astorino compared to 21% and 42% for Latimer. The picture is very different, however, when it comes to voters who see the gun shows as Westchester County Center, affordable housing, the closing of Indian Point, and the candidates personal issues. Among voters who see these as the most important issues, Latimer garners wide spread support (81-9%; 62%-18%; 65-23%; 61-29%). As with the bar charts above, this table is displayed including those who chose “other” as an option. MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IMPACTING VOTE IN ELECTION Taxes Jobs/ Economy Affordable Housing Indian Point Closing Gun Shows WCCC Candidates Personal Issues Other Astorino 70.6% 49.4% 18.0% 23.3% 9.3% 28.6% 18.6% Latimer 20.6% 41.8% 62.3% 65.1% 80.6% 60.7% 64.3% Unsure 8.7% 8.9% 19.7% 11.6% 10.2% 10.7% 17.1% The bar, and cross-tabulation below display the information for the same question (what is the most important issue impacting your vote), with the “other” category removed. The findings merely reinforce the points made above. In this case, for instance, 47% of respondents chose property taxes as the most important issue compared with 42% above, a similar difference is found for the other issues. © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 7 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS In terms of the cross-tabulation, amongst those who think property taxes and jobs/economy are the most important issue, support for Astorino increases a bit. Similarly, among those who think the other issues are more important, support for Latimer increases at a similar rate. MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IMPACTING VOTE IN ELECTION MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES IMPACTING VOTE IN ELECTION Property Taxes Jobs/ Economy Indian Point Closing Gun Shows Candidates WCCC Personal Issues Astorino 77.4% 54.2% 22.4% 26.3% 10.3% 32.0% Latimer 22.6% 45.8% 77.6% 73.7% 89.7% 68.0% © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 8 Affordable Housing APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Direction of Westchester As the incumbent seeks a third term in office, the question of how satisfied voters are with the direction Westchester is headed in takes on renewed importance. Respondents to the poll were fairly split on this issue, with Respondents are nearly split on the question of whether they are satisfied with the direction Westchester is heading with 41% saying they are satisfied, 47% saying they are dissatisfied, and 13% saying they are unsure. The following two charts display the data with the “unsure” category reflected. SATISFIED WITH DIRECTION WESTCHESTER IS GOING IN 46.52% 50.00% 40.59% 40.00% 30.00% 12.89% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Satisfied © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 9 Dissatisfied Unsure APPLIEDTECHONOMICS When the “unsure” category is excluded, the numbers are 47% satisfied to 53% dissatisfied. Not surprisingly, those 87% of those who say they are satisfied are supporting the incumbent, Astorino; while 86% of those who say they are dissatisfied are looking for new leadership and expressing support for his challenger, Latimer. SATISFIED WITH DIRECTION WESTCHESTER IS GOING IN 53.4% 54.0% 52.0% 50.0% 46.6% 48.0% 46.0% 44.0% 42.0% Satisfied Dissatisfied Interestingly, among those who are “unsure” break almost evenly for both candidates – 39%-38% and 51%-38%. (see Tables below). WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT IF ELECTION HELD TODAY? Satisfied Dissatisfied Total Astorino 87.3% 13.9% 48.6% Latimer 12.7% 86.1% 51.4% © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 10 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT IF ELECTION HELD TODAY? Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure Astorino 80.3% 12.4% 39.1% Latimer 11.7% 77.1% 37.9% Unsure 8.0% 10.5% 23.0% Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure Astorino 87.3% 13.9% 50.7% Latimer 12.7% 86.1% 49.3% WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT IF ELECTION HELD TODAY? © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 11 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS The Trump Effect Several factors have made the Westchester County Executive race one of the most watched in the nation during this off-off year election season. These include the fact that the incumbent, Rob Astorino is a Republican who has twice been elected in a district where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one. Moreover, Astorino is often seen as a rising star in his party. In 2014 he was the GOP nominee for Governor, while he lost his challenge to the incumbent Governor, Andrew Cuomo, speculation is that he is on the top of the short list of Republican’s to challenge the Governor again in 2018. If Astorino were to fail to retain his County Executive seat or win narrowly, his chances of garnering the nomination for Governor may be negatively impacted. These issues coupled with the fact that this is the first election since Donald Trump was inaugurated have raised numerous questions regarding the impact of the president and GOP control of the federal government on local and state races across the country. Democrats in Westchester and beyond have seized on the President’s low approval ratings to tie incumbent Republicans, like Astorino, to an unpopular president in the hopes of unseating him. The question of how effective this strategy is likely to be is one we will not know until election day. © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 12 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS The poll, however, shows that for a sizeable percentage of voters (44%) the Trump presidency looms large as they head to the polls on Tuesday. These findings are in keeping with findings in the other most watched race in the country this year, the Virginia Governor’s race, where an almost equal percentage of voters told pollsters that the president will have an impact on their vote. HAS TRUMP PRESDIENCY IMPACTED YOUR VOTE? Amongst those who say the Trump presidency will impact their vote, just 27% said they will support Astorino, while 64% said they will vote for Latimer. HAS TRUMP PRESDIENCY IMPACTED YOUR VOTE? Yes No Unsure Astorino 26.5% 61.6% 30.2% Latimer 63.6% 31.1% 33.3% Unsure 9.9% 7.2% 36.5% © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 13 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS When we exclude those who said they are “unsure” the numbers are even more daunting for the incumbent Republican. With the unsure category excluded, 48% of respondents said the Trump presidency will impact their vote and of those, 71% said they would support Latimer compared to 29% for Astorino. HAS TRUMP PRESDIENCY IMPACTED YOUR VOTE? HAS TRUMP PRESDIENCY IMPACTED YOUR VOTE? Yes No Astorino 29.4% 66.4% Latimer 70.6% 33.6% © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 14 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS If Election Held Today, Who Would You Support? When asked who they would support if the election were held today, registered voters were split nearly evenly with 43% for Astorino, 45% for Latimer, and 11% saying they are unsure. This is within the margin of error, thus indicating that at this point the race is in a statistical dead heat; a finding which suggests that late breaking news or stories and issues regarding turnout may be the deciding factors in this all important race. IF ELECTION HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT? When those who are “unsure” who they would support are excluded, the race remains split at two points and within the margin of error, with 51% saying they will support Latimer and 49% for Astorino. © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 15 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS IF ELECTION HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT? Given that turnout may be the deciding factor in this race, it is important to consider how the race breaks down amongst those who said they would vote. In this instance, the race is even tighter. Among those who said they would turn out (excluding those who said they would not or were unsure) the race is tied at 50% for each candidate. IF ELECTION HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT? Yes No/Unsure Astorino 49.8% 28.6% Latimer 50.2% 71.4% © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 16 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS When you include those who said they will vote but are unsure of who they will support, the race remains dead even – with 46% for Astorino and Latimer a piece. IF ELECTION HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU SUPPORT? Yes No/ Not Likely Astorino 45.5% 16.7% Latimer 45.8% 41.7% Unsure 8.8% 41.7% © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 17 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS The Survey This brief five question survey is being conducted to determine your attitudes towards the upcoming Westchester county executive race. The survey is being conducted by AT Research on behalf of RNN and The Journal News/lohud.com. It will take less than 4 minutes to complete and your responses will be kept strictly confidential. 1) Are you likely to vote in the upcoming election for Westchester County Executive? ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Unsure 2) If the election for Westchester County Executive were held today, who would you vote for? ☐ Rob Astorino, Republican ☐ George Latimer, Democrat ☐ Unsure 3) In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in Westchester County at this time? ☐ Satisfied ☐ Dissatisfied ☐ Unsure 4) I'm going to read you a short list of issues in the news. Please tell me which is the most important in terms of how you will vote in the upcoming election. ☐ Property taxes ☐ Affordable housing ☐ Gun shows at Westchester County Center ☐ Jobs and economy ☐ Closing of Indian Point ☐ Candidates personal issues ☐ Other 5) Has the Trump presidency impacted how you will vote in the election for Westchester County Executive? ☐ Yes ☐ No ☐ Unsure Thank you for completing the survey. This poll was conducted by AT Research on behalf of RNN and The Journal News/Lohud.com 1185 Hightower Trail PO Box 500653 Atlanta, GA 30350, 678-644-6617. © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 18 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Survey Results Likely to Vote? Response Frequency Percent Yes 627 93% No/Not Sure 48 7% Satisfied/Dissatisfied with Direction Westchester County is headed in? Response Frequency Percent (including “unsure”) Percent (excluding “unsure”) Satisfied 274 41% 47% Dissatisfied 314 47% 53% Unsure 87 13% ---- Most Important Issue Impacting Vote Response Frequency Percent (including “other”) Percent (excluding “other”) Property Taxes 286 42% 47% Jobs/Economy 79 12% 13% Affordable Housing 61 9% 10% Closing Indian Point 43 6% 7% Gun shows Westchester County Cntr 108 16% 18% Candidates Personal Issues 28 4% 5% Other 70 10% ----- © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 19 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Did the Trump Administration have an impact on your vote? Response Frequency Percent (including “unsure) Percent (excluding “unsure”) Yes 294 44% 48% No 318 47% 52% Unsure 63 9% ----- Response Frequency Percent (including “other”) Percent (excluding “other”) Astorino 293 43% 49% Latimer 307 46% 51% Other 75 11% ----- Who Support in Election © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 20 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS Survey Results AppliedTechonomics Research (ATR) conducted this snap survey from October 29 to November 1, 2017 throughout Westchester County, New York. Responses are reported for 675 registered voters, more than 92% of whom self-identified likely to vote, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 4 percentage points. The survey was conducted in English with automated calls to landlines and mobile phones. All data was collected and tabulated by AppliedTechonomics. Landline and mobile phone samples were generated. All numbers were scheduled for 2+ call attempts. Questions were recommended by ATR and approved by the survey sponsors, Regional News Network (RNN) and The Journal News/Lohud.com. The questions were asked as they appear in the completed questionnaire provided below. Items on the survey were worded as positive statements or direct questions, and included the following topics: • • • • Overall satisfaction with direction of Westchester County Most important issue The Trump Effect? Who support if election held today? © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 21 APPLIEDTECHONOMICS About APPLIEDTECHONOMICS AppliedTechonomics is a management consulting company. AT Research is an affiliate of AppliedTechonomics. Committed to delivering innovation, AppliedTechonomics collaborates with its clients to help them become optimal-performance organizations. With deep industry and business process expertise, broad global resources and a proven track record, AppliedTechonomics can mobilize the right people skills and technologies to help clients improve their performance. Our internet coordinates are: www.appliedtechonomics.com © Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. AppliedTechonomics 22