Drive to 55 PATHWAYS TO POSTSECONDARY Davidson County Education Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Overview In 2013, Governor Bill Haslam launched the Drive to 55 mission to increase the number of Tennesseans with a postsecondary degree or certificate to 55 percent by 2025. To support this work, the Tennessee Department of Education set forth ambitious but attainable goals in its strategic plan, Tennessee Succeeds. The plan calls upon the department to support the work of Tennessee's districts in increasing the average ACT composite score to 21 by 2020 and in equipping the majority of high school graduates from the class of 2020 to earn a postsecondary certificate, diploma, or degree. The Tennessee Department of Education is one of the first K–12 education agencies in the United States to develop a statewide goal for postsecondary attainment. Ensuring that students are prepared to enroll in and complete postsecondary education is increasingly important. Data shows that our workforce is shifting: At least 55 percent of the jobs in Tennessee will require some postsecondary education by 2025. Statewide initiatives such as Tennessee Promise have addressed the financial burden of enrolling in postsecondary education. Tennessee's districts and schools are making progress to prepare our high school graduates for college and careers, but we have more work to do. Across the state, high school graduation and postsecondary enrollment rates are higher than ever before, yet over a third of high school graduates do not enroll in any postsecondary institution. Students in Tennessee who enter the workforce directly after graduating from high school earn an average salary of $10,880 during their first year of work, placing them far below the federal poverty line. The Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary report is intended to provide district and school leaders with data on their graduates’ progress to and through postsecondary education. The majority of data presented here apply to the cohort of students who entered high school in fall 2012 and graduated with a regular diploma in the spring or summer of 2016. This report highlights percentages of 2016 high school graduates who go on to attend four-year universities, community college, and technical colleges. Please note that graduates who enlisted in the military are included in the classification of students who did not enroll in any postsecondary institution unless we were notified by the district of these students' enlistment. Equipped with this information, state, district, and school leaders can continue working to ensure our students are ready for and accessing postsecondary opportunities that will prepare them for bright futures. Data analysts and Career Technical Education (CTE) consultants from each of the eight Centers of Regional Excellence (CORE) are available for general support and training on the information contained in this report. 1 Driveto 55: Pathwaysto Postsecondary Key Facts about Ten essee 2012 2016 lit? 89% of Tennessee students who But only 63% of those graduates enrolled entered 9th grade in 2012 graduated in a postsecondary institution in the from high school in 2016. summer or fall following graduation. Economically disadvantaged students; black, Hispanic, and Native American students; students with disabilities; and English learners are significantly less likely to enroll in postsecondary than their peers. AMONG 2016 35% enrolled in a four-year university :3 25% enrolled in a commumty conege The average ACT composite 3% enrolled in a score was 19.9, the state's technical college highest score to date. 40% of students attempted an early postsecondary opportunity, while about one-third earned postsecondary credit in high school. 100% 0 of graduates concentrated in a career and technical education career cluster as their high school program of study. Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Layout of Report The Tennessee Department of Education, the Tennessee HIgher Education Commission, and the Governor's office are excited to provide data to support school directors, administrators, and counselors in understanding the postsecondary pathways chosen by students in your district as we move forward together on the Drive to 55. This report contains five sections: • Postsecondary Enrollment • Postsecondary Enrollment by Subgroup • Postsecondary Enrollment by Academic Achievement • Postsecondary Enrollment by Coursework • Career and Technical Education Each section contains a series of figures that show district-level data on these data points. Tables displaying the information at the school level provide the number of graduates in the group of students listed, as well as the percent of students enrolling in different types of institutions. Each section closes with a series of guiding questions. Department resources and strategies aligned to each report section can be found in Appendix A; Appendix B contains a series of business rules that explain what data were available for this report and how certain data points are calculated; Appendix C describes the origin of our postsecondary data; and Appendix D compiles useful resources and contacts. An accompanying data file provides school-level context to support strategic planning around the postsecondary enrollment goals for your district. This report acts as the first attempt to share postsecondary enrollment data with districts. Future iterations will include persistence, postsecondary majors, and postsecondary completion information. CORE data analysts are available for support in understanding and using these reports. We welcome and encourage any feedback so that the department can better serve the work that you are doing in preparing students to Table of Contents Section 1: Postsecondary Enrollment................................................................................................................4 Section 2: Postsecondary Enrollment by Subgroup.........................................................................................8 Section 3: Postsecondary Enrollment by Academic Achievement................................................................11 Section 4: Postsecondary Enrollment by Coursework...................................................................................15 Section 5: Career and Technical Education....................................................................................................19 Appendix A: Potential Strategies......................................................................................................................25 Appendix B: Business Rules..............................................................................................................................28 Appendix C: Postsecondary Systems...............................................................................................................31 Appendix D: Resources......................................................................................................................................32 3 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 4 Section I: Postsecondary Enrollment This section provides an overview of postsecondary enrollment trends for your district, including enrollment over time, enrollment by school(s), most common institutions for enrollment, and comparisons to similar districts. Percentages are calculated to display trends in postsecondary enrollment at four-year universities, community colleges, and technical colleges (TCATs). If fewer than 10 students are in a graduate cohort, suppression rules are applied (*). See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. If schools are not listed below, please see accompanying spreadsheet. Postsecondary Enrollment by High School Graduation Year 2016 Postsecondary Enrollment by School Name Grads (N) Four-year Univ. Comm. College TCAT Tennessee 63,194 35% 25% 3% Davidson County 4,394 37.7% 22.2% 1.2% Antioch High School 427 37.7% 19.2% .9% Cane Ridge High School 353 38.2% 22.4% 1.4% * * * * East Nashville School 150 52.7% 31.3% .7% Glencliff High School Hillsboro High 275 247 30.5% 51.8% 15.3% 23.5% 2.2% .8% Cora Howe School Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 5 Most Common Postsecondary Institutions for 2016 Enrollees The following table shows the common postsecondary institutions attended by 2016 high school graduates in your district (up to 10 total institutions). If fewer than five students enrolled in an institution, these students are counted in the "Other" category for each institution type; if fewer than five students are in the "Other" category, suppression rules are applied (*). See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. Percent of Institution Type Institution Name Enrollees Graduates Community College Nashville State Community College 674 15.3% Four-year University Middle Tennessee State University 314 7.1% Four-year University Tennessee State University 240 5.5% Community College Volunteer State Community College 216 4.9% Four-year University University of Tennessee, Knoxville 161 3.7% Four-year University Austin Peay State University 96 2.2% Four-year University University of Tennessee, Chattanooga 83 1.9% Four-year University Belmont University 78 1.8% Four-year University Trevecca Nazarene College 65 1.5% Four-year University Other Four-year University 620 14.1% Community College Technical College Other Community College Other Technical College 86 52 2% 1.2% == Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 6 2016 Postsecondary Enrollment in Similar Districts The following figure and table display postsecondary enrollment data for your district compared to similar districts, which have been determined based on the student enrollment, per pupil expenditure, CORE region, grade span offered, and demographic make-up of the district. If fewer than 10 students are in a graduating cohort, suppression rules are applied (*). See Appendix B for comprehensive Name Grads (N) Four-year Univ. Comm. College TCAT Tennessee 63,194 35% 25% 3% Davidson County 4,394 37.7% 22.2% 1.2% Shelby County (New) 6,905 38% 16.3% 1.3% Hamilton County 2,525 38.5% 28.5% 2.7% Knox County 3,838 35.8% 32.6% 1.3% Rutherford County 3,348 2,059 41.5% 47.4% 21.8% 9.4% 1% 0% Montgomery County Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Guiding Questions Given the data displayed in Section I, please review the following questions. Appendix A contains potential strategies for your consideration. • Have you seen significant changes in the trends of your postsecondary enrollment over time? If so, to what might that be attributed? • What surprises you about your postsecondary enrollment trends (e.g., type of postsecondary institution and/or most common institutions)? Does this data vary from your expectations, based on your district’s current programs and relationships? • How do the postsecondary enrollment totals of your district and schools compare to your district and schools' goals? In which type of institution (or at which specific institutions) would you like to see an increase in enrollment in order to meet those goals? • Are there areas where comparable districts show particular strengths about which it could be interesting to learn more? • What, if any, relationships do you have in place with your most common institutions? What impact might existing relationships (e.g., frequency/depth of communications or existing articulation agreements) have on your students’ postsecondary enrollment trends? Notes/Comments: 7 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Section II: Postsecondary Enrollment by Subgroup This section provides an overview of enrollment trends for student subgroups in your district. Percentages are calculated to display trends in postsecondary enrollment at four-year universities, community colleges, and technical colleges (TCATs) by black, Hispanic, and Native American students (BHN); economically disadvantaged students (ED); students with disabilities (SWD); and English learners (EL) in your 2016 graduating class. Distribution of Student Subgroups Postsecondary Enrollment by Student Subgroup 8 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 9 Postsecondary Enrollment Table by Student Subgroup The following table shows postsecondary enrollment patterns by student subgroup for 2016 high school graduates in your district and school(s). If schools are missing, see accompanying spreadsheet. If fewer than 10 students are in a subgroup, values are suppressed (*). See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. Name Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Antioch High School Antioch High School Antioch High School Antioch High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School East Nashville School East Nashville School East Nashville School East Nashville School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School Subgroup Grads (N) Four-year Univ. Comm. College BHN ED SWD EL BHN ED SWD EL BHN ED SWD EL BHN ED SWD EL BHN ED SWD EL BHN ED SWD EL BHN ED SWD EL 18,681 35,176 6,327 1,512 2,823 3,335 385 466 296 357 29 81 257 292 27 65 * * * NA 134 129 12 * 194 242 17 74 33% 24% 9% 18% 33.5% 31.8% 10.6% 20.4% 31.4% 34.2% 10.3% 42% 33.9% 34.9% 0% 29.2% * * * NA 53% 53.5% 16.7% * 24.7% 30.6% 0% 27% 20% 24% 22% 19% 21.6% 22.5% 30.6% 18.7% 20.6% 19.6% 13.8% 18.5% 22.2% 23.3% 40.7% 21.5% * * * NA 32.1% 28.7% 50% * 15.5% 14.9% 5.9% 12.2% TCAT 1% 3% 5% 2% 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 1.3% .7% .3% 3.4% 0% 1.9% 1% 0% 1.5% * * * NA .7% .8% 8.3% * 3.1% 2.5% 0% 1.4% Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Guiding Questions Beginning in 2018, postsecondary enrollment rates by subgroup will be shown on the state report card. Given the data displayed in Section II, please review the following questions. Appendix A contains potential strategies for your consideration. • In what areas (if any) do you see differences in postsecondary enrollment rates between subgroups across your district? Are there differences between your subgroups and your overall enrollment rates that surprise you? What policies and practices may be contributing to that variation? • In what areas (if any) do you see variation between district-level trends and school-level trends? What policies and practices may be contributing to that variation between schools? • Given subgroup enrollment rates, overall enrollment rates (from Section I), and your district’s goals, what impact would closing gaps in subgroup enrollment have on your district’s ability to meet those goals? Notes/Comments: 10 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Section III: Postsecondary Enrollment by Academic Achievement ACT scores are a common proxy for student readiness for postsecondary. The ranges used in this report are based on the highest ACT composite scores for your district's 2016 graduating class, and were selected to act as proxies for falling below readiness benchmarks (below 15), approaching readiness benchmarks (16-18), approaching HOPE Scholarship eligibility (19-20), meeting HOPE Scholarship eligibility (21-26), and among the top 10 percent nationally (27 and above). Background • Each ACT subject test has an associated College Readiness Benchmark, which indicates a 50 percent chance of obtaining a B or higher and a 75 percent chance of obtaining a C or higher in corresponding credit-bearing, first-year college courses. • The ACT College Readiness Benchmarks are as follows: 18 in English, 22 in mathematics, 22 in reading, and 23 in science. Tennessee Board of Regents policy requires the following minimum scores to avoid mandatory learning supports or interventions in postsecondary: 18 in English, 19 in Mathematics, and 19 in Reading. • In 2016, the national average ACT composite score was 20.8 and Tennessee’s average ACT composite score was 19.9. 11 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report The figures below present the distribution of ACT composite scores for students in your district, as well as postsecondary enrollment patterns for students with each range of scores. Percentages are calculated to display trends in postsecondary enrollment at four-year universities, community colleges, and technical colleges (TCATs) by your 2016 graduating class. Distribution of ACT Scores Postsecondary Enrollment by ACT Score 12 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 13 Postsecondary Enrollment Table by ACT Score The following table shows postsecondary enrollment patterns by students' highest ACT composite scores for 2016 high school graduates in your district and school(s). If schools are missing, see accompanying spreadsheet. If fewer than 10 students scored within a range, suppression rules are applied (*), while "NA" occurs when no students are within that range. See Appendix B for Name Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Antioch High School Antioch High School Antioch High School Antioch High School Antioch High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cane Ridge High School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School Cora Howe School East Nashville School East Nashville School East Nashville School East Nashville School East Nashville School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School Glencliff High School ACT Score Grads (N) Four-year Univ. Comm. College 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 0-15 16-18 19-20 21-26 27-36 12,689 12,375 7,978 16,639 7,161 1,147 999 510 863 346 108 130 58 74 10 105 111 49 53 11 * NA * NA NA 24 47 39 36 * 113 67 35 36 * 6.3% 20.5% 34.8% 57.5% 86.8% 10.8% 33.6% 52.7% 68.3% 87.9% 10.2% 36.9% 60.3% 74.3% 100% 7.6% 37.8% 69.4% 67.9% 81.8% * NA * NA NA 29.2% 31.9% 76.9% 69.4% * 10.6% 28.4% 62.9% 69.4% * 23.2% 36% 36.7% 27% 6.2% 30.3% 29.5% 24.7% 14.9% 5.5% 26.9% 24.6% 15.5% 10.8% 0% 34.3% 23.4% 12.2% 13.2% 9.1% * NA * NA NA 33.3% 57.4% 17.9% 13.9% * 15% 19.4% 22.9% 11.1% * TCAT 5.5% 4.1% 2.4% 1% >1% 2.6% .9% .6% .3% 0% .9% .8% 1.7% 0% 0% 3.8% .9% 0% 0% 0% * NA * NA NA 4.2% 0% 0% 0% * 3.5% 1.5% 0% 0% * Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Guiding Questions Given the data displayed in Section III, please review the following questions. Appendix A contains potential strategies for your consideration. • At which ACT range(s) do the majority of students fall? What are the postsecondary enrollment trends for this majority group of students? • At which ACT score range(s) do you see significant or surprising postsecondary enrollment? • Do the correlations between ACT scores and postsecondary enrollment align with other district trends or patterns in this report? Notes/Comments: 14 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Section IV: Postsecondary Enrollment by Coursework Early postsecondary opportunities (EPSOs) allow students to earn college credit while in high school, develop the confidence and skills necessary for success in postsecondary, make informed postsecondary and career decisions, decrease the time and cost of completing a certificate or degree, and help to support a culture of college and career readiness for all students. Research has shown that students who participate in EPSOs are more likely to enroll and persist in postsecondary. Background • Tennessee has the most comprehensive early postsecondary opportunity (EPSO) offerings in the nation, which include local, state, national, and international programs for a total of eight different types of EPSOs. • The figures and table include enrollment in three out of the eight possible types of opportunities: statewide dual credit, dual enrollment, and Advanced Placement. • Most EPSOs award credit by a culminating assessment with the exception of dual enrollment, which confers credit through successful course completion. A student is considered as having enrolled in an EPSO and attempted credit if he or she either sat for the requisite exam (for AP and statewide dual credit) or was enrolled in the end-of-term file at a Tennessee postecondary institution (for dual enrollment). See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. • The data shown in the following figures and table are not estimates of the Ready Graduate Indicator as defined by Tennessee's 2017 ESSA plan. For more information on changes to the accountability system in Tennessee, please visit the Tennessee Department of Education website. These data do not show the comprehensive number of EPSOs in which students were enrolled or earned credit. 15 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report The figures below present the percentage of graduates who enrolled in EPSOs overall and by economic disadvantage status, as well as the postsecondary enrollment of EPSO-enrolled students compared to those who did not enroll in EPSOs. Percentages are calculated to display trends in postsecondary enrollment at four-year universities, community colleges, and technical colleges (TCATs) by your 2016 graduating class. Due to the availability of data, this report includes only AP, dual enrollment, and statewide dual credit. Distribution of EPSO Attempts by Economic Disadvantage Postsecondary Enrollment by EPSO Attempts & Economic Disadvantage 16 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 17 Postsecondary Enrollment Table by EPS Attempt The following table shows postsecondary enrollment patterns by EPSO enrollment and economic disadvantage for 2016 high school graduates in your district and school(s). If schools are missing, please see accompanying spreadsheet. If fewer than 10 students are in a category, values are suppressed (*). See Appendix B for Name Category Grads (N) Four-year Univ. Comm. College TCAT Tennessee All students, EPSO 25,161 60.4% 21.8% 2.1% Tennessee All students, No EPSO 38,033 18.9% 27.4% 3.3% Tennessee ED, EPSO 9,670 46.4% 24.5% 3.3% Tennessee ED, No EPSO 25,506 15.2% 23.3% 3.1% Tennessee Non-ED, EPSO 15,491 69.1% 20.2% 1.3% Tennessee Non-ED, No EPSO 12,527 26.5% 35.8% 3.7% Davidson County All students, EPSO 1,558 67% 16.2% .6% Davidson County All students, No EPSO 2,836 21.6% 25.5% 1.5% Davidson County ED, EPSO Davidson County ED, No EPSO Davidson County 924 62.1% 17.2% .9% 2,411 20.2% 24.5% 1.4% Non-ED, EPSO 634 74.1% 14.8% .2% Davidson County Non-ED, No EPSO 425 29.6% 31.3% 2.4% Antioch High School All students, EPSO 86 76.7% 11.6% 0% Antioch High School All students, No EPSO 341 27.9% 21.1% 1.2% Antioch High School ED, EPSO 68 75% 11.8% 0% Antioch High School ED, No EPSO 289 24.6% 21.5% .3% Antioch High School Non-ED, EPSO 18 83.3% 11.1% 0% Antioch High School Non-ED, No EPSO 52 46.2% 19.2% 5.8% Cane Ridge High School All students, EPSO 79 64.6% 15.2% 1.3% Cane Ridge High School All students, No EPSO 274 30.7% 24.5% 1.5% Cane Ridge High School ED, EPSO 62 64.5% 19.4% 1.6% Cane Ridge High School ED, No EPSO 230 27% 24.3% .9% Cane Ridge High School Non-ED, EPSO 17 64.7% 0% 0% Cora Howe School All students, EPSO NA NA NA NA Cora Howe School All students, No EPSO * * * * Cora Howe School ED, EPSO NA NA NA NA Cora Howe School ED, No EPSO * * * * Cora Howe School Non-ED, EPSO NA NA NA NA Cora Howe School Non-ED, No EPSO * * * * East Nashville School All students, EPSO 77 59.7% 27.3% 0% East Nashville School All students, No EPSO 73 45.2% 35.6% 1.4% East Nashville School ED, EPSO 66 59.1% 27.3% 0% East Nashville School East Nashville School ED, No EPSO Non-ED, EPSO 63 11 47.6% 63.6% 30.2% 27.3% 1.6% 0% East Nashville School Non-ED, No EPSO 10 30% 70% 0% Glencliff High School Glencliff High School All students, EPSO All students, No EPSO 71 204 63.4% 19.1% 11.3% 16.7% 0% 2.9% Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Guiding Questions Given the data displayed in Section IV, please review the following questions. Appendix A contains potential strategies for your consideration. • What surprises you about EPSO enrollment trends in your district and/or school(s)? • How does access to EPSOs in your schools differ by student economic disadvantage status? What formal policies, informal practices, and/or lack thereof might be affecting any differences? • What types of EPSOs are offered in your schools? How are you strategically selecting these offerings? How are you utilizing data to inform these decisions? • What policies and practices do you have in place to determine student placement in and encourage completion of EPSOs? What data are you using to inform these decisions? How do you communicate opportunities to students and parents? Notes/Comments: 18 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 19 Section V: Career and Technical Education This section provides an overview of career and technical education (CTE) and the programs of study offered in your district, including their alignment to regional labor needs. It also provides the top programs of study in your region based on labor market demand. Finally, the figures give a snapshot of postsecondary enrollment patterns by career cluster participation for 2016 high school graduates in your district. Program of Study Alignment The following table displays each CTE program of study offered in your district in the 2017-18 academic year. In collaboration with the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development (TNECD), the Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC), the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TNLWD), and CTE content experts, the department aligned each program of study to the labor codes identified by TNECD and TDLWD as high need in your region in the 2016 LEAP report. If a program of study is aligned, at least one in-demand occupation exists in your region. See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. Career Cluster Program of Study Advanced Manufacturing Mechatronics Agriculture, Food, & Natural Resources Horticulture Science Agriculture, Food, & Natural Resources Veterinary and Animal Science Architecture & Construction Architectural & Engineering Design Architecture & Construction Mechanical, Electrical, & Plumbing (MEP) Systems Architecture & Construction Residential & Commercial Construction Arts, Audio-Visual Technology, & Communication Audio/Visual Production Arts, Audio-Visual Technology, & Communication Digital Arts & Design Business Management & Administration Business Management Business Management & Administration Office Management Education & Training Teaching as a Profession (K-12) Finance Accounting Finance Banking and Finance Health Science Diagnostic Services Health Science Emergency Services Health Science Exercise Physiology Health Science Therapeutic Services Hospitality & Tourism Culinary Arts Hospitality & Tourism Hospitality and Tourism Management Human Services Cosmetology Human Services Social Health Services Aligned? Y N N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 20 Program of Study Alignment (cont., if applicable) Career Cluster Program of Study Aligned? Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 21 In-Demand Programs of Study In collaboration with the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development (TNECD), the Tennessee Higher Education Commission, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TNLWD), and CTE content experts, the department aligned each program of study to the labor codes identified by TNECD and TDLWD as high need in the 2016 LEAP report in each of Tennessee's nine Pathways regions. The top 10 programs listed below have at least four aligned occupations across the state and are aligned with demand within their Pathways region. In-demand occupations are based on high rates of hires, openings, and/or postings relative to total employment. Please note that in many cases, the occupations require postsecondary degrees or certificates, but the programs of study prepare students to access these opportunities. See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. Career Cluster Program of Study Architecture & Construction Mech., Elec., & Plumb. Sys. Architecture & Construction Res. & Comm. Construction Business Management & Administration Business Management Health Science Therapeutic Services Marketing Marketing Management Advanced Manufacturing Machining Technology Finance Accounting Information Technology Networking Systems Science, Technology, Engineering, & Mathematics STEM Education Science, Technology, Engineering, & Mathematics Technology Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report The figures below present overall CTE career cluster patterns in your 2016 graduating class, as well as postsecondary enrollment patterns by career cluster. Percentages are calculated to display trends in postsecondary enrollment at four-year universities, community colleges, and technical colleges (TCATs) by your 2016 graduating class. Distribution of Career Clusters Postsecondary Enrollment by Career Cluster 22 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report 23 Postsecondary Enrollment Table by Career Cluster The following table shows postsecondary enrollment patterns by career cluster for 2016 high school graduates in your district and and school(s). If fewer than 10 students are in a career cluster, these students are counted in the "Other Career Cluster" category; if fewer than 10 students are in the "Other Career Cluster" category, suppression rules are applied (*). See Appendix B for comprehensive business rules. Name Career Cluster Grads (N) Four-year Univ. Comm. College TCAT Tennessee Agriculture 3,956 20.5% 27.1% 8.2% Tennessee Arts, A/V 1,801 35.4% 29.9% 1.4% Tennessee Business 2,265 35.9% 30.2% 2.3% Tennessee Construction 2,462 16.9% 19.9% 8.4% Tennessee Education 347 32.6% 37.2% .6% Tennessee Finance 626 44.9% 26.7% 2.6% Tennessee Health Science 6,348 43.9% 33.6% 1.6% Tennessee Hospitality 1,296 25.8% 28.7% 1.6% Tennessee Human Services 4,500 23% 29.3% 2.9% Tennessee Information Technology 1,295 30.3% 33.7% 3% Tennessee Law and Public Safety 1,777 27.7% 31.8% 2.1% Tennessee Marketing 1,599 44.3% 26.7% 1.1% Tennessee STEM 1,408 40.4% 26.3% 3.8% Tennessee Transportation 1,770 9.4% 13.8% 10.3% Tennessee Not a concentrator 33,602 39.5% 22.8% 1.8% Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Davidson County Agriculture Arts, A/V Business Construction Education Finance Health Science Hospitality Human Services Information Technology Marketing STEM Transportation 57 351 69 43 62 36 482 183 158 190 259 307 99 29.8% 30.2% 34.8% 30.2% 48.4% 47.2% 45.2% 24.6% 26.6% 25.8% 34.7% 46.6% 20.2% 29.8% 26.8% 21.7% 14% 22.6% 27.8% 28% 18.6% 27.2% 30% 22% 17.9% 20.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0% 2.3% 0% 0% .2% 1.1% .6% 2.6% 1.5% 1.6% 4% Davidson County Not a concentrator 1,966 41.2% 19% 1.1% Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Guiding Questions Given the data displayed in Section V, please review the following questions. Appendix A contains potential strategies for your consideration.  What surprises you about this data?  Do the programs of study you offer lead to majors available at your most common postsecondary institutions? (See Section I for your most common postsecondary institutions.)  In which programs of study would you like to see an enrollment increase to meet state, district, and/or school(s) goals? Which programs of study would you like to shift away from (phase out) and/or implement to better align to the industry and postsecondary opportunities in your region?  Based on the top 10 industry areas in your region, to what extent do you feel students, teachers, counselors, and administrators understand the career opportunities and requirements to advance in the career? How are you supporting strong understanding in this this area?  How are you addressing capacity limitations, if any, in your district/school(s) to offer CTE programs of study? What partnerships could you develop or improve with postsecondary institutions that offer these programs? Notes/Comments: 24 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Appendix A: Potential Strategies As you review the data for your district and/or school(s), consider the following strategies as suggestions for addressing identified needs or areas for growth. These strategies are organized according to the sections of this report and are not intended to be an exhaustive list. Instead, they are intended to provide ideas to consider as you continue to improve the opportunities for students in your district and/or school(s). Section I: Postsecondary Enrollment  Review and update existing articulation agreements with local postsecondary institutions to focus on increasing early postsecondary credit attainment and vertical alignment. o Compare your dual enrollment programs with your postsecondary enrollment trends. If these are not aligned, consider updating your dual enrollment program to encourage more students to earn credits while in high school and to enroll seamlessly in postsecondary after graduation.  Develop or improve relationships with your most common institutions to ensure students are aware of important enrollment information, such as programs offered, financial aid, and application deadlines.  Consider differences in the characteristics of your students who are enrolling in postsecondary and those who are not. What barriers to seamless enrollment might you be able to remove for your students? o For example, if students report acceptance into postsecondary at a rate that is higher than the actual enrollment listed above, what challenges might they be facing during the summer between high school graduation and the beginning of their postsecondary program? Could the addition of an alumni mentorship program or increased parent communication reduce or prevent “summer melt”? o Consider collecting and examining early warning system data for early signs of postsecondary readiness among different students. Research points to ninth grade as a significant transition point: Students who fail one or more courses in ninth grade, have disciplinary issues, or are chronically out of school are less likely to graduate high school continue to postsecondary. Clinicaland Exercise Physiology  Reach out to comparison districts with particularly interesting areas of strength in postsecondary enrollment trends and compare their programs with your own. What strategies might those districts be implementing that could also be appropriate for your context? 25 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Section II: Postsecondary Enrollment by Subgroup  Review existing policies and practices governing early postsecondary course enrollment, attendance at postsecondary events and activities, and student advisement. Are there changes you could make to increase participation by underrepresented subgroups?  Conduct further research, including student interviews, to discern potential underlying causes for differences between subgroup enrollment trends. Work to remove barriers that exist for specific subgroups.  Take advantage of state and local resources to provide support for subgroups (e.g., EPSO and ACT/SAT test fee waivers for economically disadvantaged students) and remove barriers to postsecondary enrollment. Section III: Postsecondary Enrollment by Academic Achievement  Review current practices around curriculum and instruction for ACT success. Have teachers and/or administrators completed a curriculum audit to map the connections between state academic standards and ACT tested standards? How are you coordinating between your high school(s) and middle school(s) to vertically align instructional practices and standards to ensure ACT success? Are you offering the ACT preparation course "Preparing for the ACT, Postsecondary, and Career"?  Review current practices in helping students understand how the ACT is connected to college and career opportunities. Are you offering the "Career Exploration Course" (or a similar opportunity) in your district in the eighth or ninth grade? If you offer an ACT preparation course, does it include time and resources for postsecondary planning? Do parents and families know how the ACT can increase student opportunities for admission, financial aid and scholarships, and workforce readiness?  Review current practices for creating a culture and climate in which ACT success is recognized and celebrated. Do students have the opportunity to take practice ACT tests before their test date? Are teachers using results from practice ACT tests to provide targeted support, remediation, and/or enrichment to address student needs? Is student growth and achievement publicly recognized and/or celebrated? 26 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Section IV: Postsecondary Enrollment by Coursework  Explore the different types of EPSOs and the policies that affect them. How are these EPSOs aligned to your students’ postsecondary enrollment trends?  Examine your current student population. What do your students want to do after graduation? What postsecondary program(s) will they need to be successful on their chosen path? How can you build a bridge to get your students there? o For students with Individualized Education Programs (IEP), review transition plans to determine whether students' programs of study align with their postsecondary goals.  Consider how existing state and local data—both quantitative and qualitative—can be used to inform EPSOs and student placement.  Identify barriers that prohibit students from gaining the full benefit of EPSOs and discuss potential solutions. What are some examples of challenges you or your students have faced in taking advantage of EPSOs? What are some ways to increase diversity in access to and enrollment in EPSOs by student subgroups? What role can educators play in increasing equity in EPSO enrollment in your school(s)?  Review your communications strategies. How are you providing students with accurate information about early postsecondary and postsecondary opportunities to help them navigate their options?  Develop and improve partnerships with local postsecondary institutions to increase early postsecondary offerings and encourage postsecondary matriculation. Section V: Career and Technical Education  Consider conducting a needs analysis to identify the industry and postsecondary opportunities in your region. How can you utilize that data with your CTE director to select programs of study that support education-to-career learning pathways for your students? What revisions to the programs of study you are currently offering might be appropriate? Resources for determining which programs of study to offer in your district and/or school(s) can be found in the department’s open enrollment guide.  Conduct a review of the membership on your district industry advisory council. Do you have the right representation from industry and postsecondary to provide actionable feedback to CTE programs in your district and/or school(s)? If not, how might you grow this group or address current gaps?  Consider how your partnerships with postsecondary institutions may help share classroom space and/or teachers to increase the availability of aligned program of study options in your region. 27 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Appendix B: Business Rules The following section describes how certain data points are calculated for this report. ACT scores are students' highest ACT composite scores, per accountability rules. In this report, ACT composite score ranges are used as proxies for learning support benchmarks and HOPE eligibility: Scoring a 21 on the ACT opens up HOPE scholarship opportunities, while scoring below an 18 or a 19 (depending on subject area) results in required learning support classes at community colleges. CTE concentrators are students who have earned three or more credits within a career cluster or CTE program of study. Students are identified as CTE concentrators in the eTIGER system. District comparisons are determined based on the student enrollment, per pupil expenditure, CORE region, grade span offered, and demographic make-up of the district. Demographic make-up includes the percentage of students in the districts classified as black, Hispanic, Native American; economically disadvantaged students; students with disabilities; and English learners. All characteristics are equally considered in the calculation. The comparable districts are those which are the most similar when these characteristics are taken into account. Early postsecondary opportunities (EPSOs) exist in eight approved types in Tennessee, but reliable data for the 2016 graduating class is only available for Advanced Placement (AP), dual enrollment, and statewide dual credit. A student is considered as having participated in dual enrollment if he or she registers greater than 0 hours earned at a postsecondary institution in a semester before being declared a high school graduate. The department uses the Tennessee Longitudinal Data System (TLDS) to identify all high school students who are identified at the end-of-semester file submission to the Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC) by Tennessee colleges and universities. A student must sit the requisite exam to attempt AP credit or statewide dual credit. This is NOT the Ready Graduate indicator. Graduates are defined as having completed a regular high school diploma within four years and one summer from the student's ninth grade cohort year, per accountabilty rules. 28 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Institution type refers to one of the three main institution types: four-year universities, two-year colleges, and technical colleges. Given that we are unable to observe whether the student attends a two-year program at a four-year institution, there may be instances where students are identified as enrolling in a four-year institution but are attempting an associate's degree. Postsecondary data is captured from two sources. The Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC) uses the Tennessee Longitudinal Data System (P20) to identify the high school graduates from Tennessee public high schools. THEC then matches those students with the data reported from Tennessee public postsecondary institutions' end-of-semester files. Tennessee public postsecondary institutions comprise Tennessee Board of Regents (TBR) schools, the University of Tennessee system (UT), Tennessee Colleges of Applied Technology (TCATs), and Tennessee Independent Colleges and Universities Association (TICUA) institutions. THEC also sends a list of graduates to the National Student Clearinghouse (NSC). In cases where a student is identified in the MeasureTN database as an active student in two schools, the THEC enrollment instance is selected. N.B. In August, 2017, LEAs were given the opportunity to identify 2016 graduates who enlisted in the military directly after high school. These students are removed from the "Did not enroll" group, resulting in a few cases where the total percentages across institution types and non-enrollees in figures do not add to 100%. Postsecondary enrollment is defined as seamless enrollment in a postsecondary institution in the fall following high school graduation. This definition is consistent with the College-Going Rate reported by THEC. Regional alignment of programs of study is captured by the 2016 Labor and Education Alignment Program Report, a statewide and regional study of occupations in high demand based on labor shortages in high quality jobs released by the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development (TNECD). The evaluation identifies occupational gaps by focusing on key metrics such as growth, median wage, online job postings, hires, job openings, and educational program completions. Additionally, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TNLWD) conducts analyses on projected "hot careers" through 2024. CTE content experts, in collaboration with TNECD, TNLWD, and the Tennessee Department of Education, aligned programs of study with these occupations. Strong alignment would be offering a program of study that has at least one in-demand occupation in the same region. In other words, programs of study within a district should be aligned to the top occupations in the region. As a caveat, for STEM and entrepreneurship programs of study, we may not see direct labor data to support these programs in regional data; however, we know that these programs have strong value and have successfully contributed to students' skills and workforce needs. 29 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Subgroup identification is consistent with department accountability protocol, where a student is identified on or after July 1, 2012, for 2016 high school graduates. A student is marked economically disadvantaged if they have a student classification code of H, I, J, and/or U. Students with disabilities (SWD) have any disability types except 3 or 16. English learners have ELB codes of L or W for any primary enrollment in a school that does not have a type of 8 or 9. Finally, the black, Hispanic, and Native American subgroups are identified using accountability hierarchy. To meet federal reporting requirements, beginning in 2018 the department will display postsecondary enrollment rates for these subgroups on the state report card. Suppression rules dictate that percentage values are suppressed when fewer than 10 students are included in the denominator of a calculation. For the "Most Common Postsecondary Institutions for 2016 Enrollment" table (Section I), values are suppressed when fewer than five students enroll in a single institution. When values are suppressed within a table, the cell will read "*." 30 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Appendix C: Postsecondary Systems National Student Clearinghouse (NSC): The National Student Clearninghouse is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization whose mission is to conduct and support objective research related to educational enrollment, progression, and completion for the benefit of students, institutions, and the public. About 96 percent of all students nationally who are enrolled in degree-granting institutions are attending schools that regularly send their data to NSC. Ninety-six percent of all degree-granting, Title IV-eligible public institutions and 73 percent of all non-profit, four-year private institutions participate in NSC data collection. Most U.S. military academies and tribal colleges do not participate in NSC data collection. Out-of-state enrollment for Tennessee high school graduates are provided by NSC. Tennessee Board of Regents (TBR): The Tennessee Board of Regents is one of two systems of public higher education in Tennessee. TBR was authorized by an act of the Tennessee General Assembly passed in 1972. TBR governs the 27 Tennessee Colleges of Applied Technology (TCATs) and 13 community colleges. Tennessee Colleges of Applied Technology (TCAT): There are 27 Tennessee Colleges of Applied Technology across the state governed by the Tennessee Board of Regents. Through the TCAT Workforce Development mission, Tennessee residents are able to obtain the technical skills and professional training necessary for advancement in today's competitive job market. Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC): The Tennessee Higher Education Commission was created in 1967 by the Tennessee General Assembly to achieve coordination and foster unity statewide in higher education. THEC develops, implements, and evaluates postsecondary education policies and programs in Tennessee while coordinating the state's systems of higher education. Tennessee Independent Colleges and Universities Association (TICUA): The 34 member institutions of TICUA educate over 81,000 students in Tennessee. Over 1,000 students participate in dual enrollment opportunities at TICUA institutions each year. Members institutions' enrollments vary from 200 to over 12,500 students. University of Tennessee system (UT): The University of Tennessee system comprises campuses in Knoxville, Chattanooga, and Martin; the Health Science Center at Memphis; and the statewide Institute of Agriculture and Institute for Public Service. UT has a presence in each of Tennessee’s 95 counties. Through its education, research, and outreach, UT serves students, businesses and industries, schools, governments, organizations, and citizens throughout the state. 31 Drive to 55: Pathways to Postsecondary Report Appendix D: Resources For information about counseling, email School.Counseling@tn.gov. For questions about EPSOs, email Early.Postsecondary@tn.gov. For questions about the ACT, email ACT.Questions@tn.gov. For information about CTE, email CTE.Questions@tn.gov. For general support, email your CORE data analyst. Helpful Resources ACT/SAT ACT Connections ACT Preparation Pilot Report ACT Retake Implementation Guide ACT Toolkit Preparing for the ACT, Postsecondary, and Career (Course Standards) Tennessee ACT/SAT Webpage Career and Technical Education 2017-18 Programs of Study CTE Program of Study Marketing Materials CTE Resources Open Enrollment Guide Program of Study Justification Process Promising Practices Promoted Industry Certifications Student Industry Certification Guidance Vision of Excellent CTE Instruction Early Postsecondary Early Postsecondary EPSO Funding Options EPSO Implementation Guide EPSO Poster 32 33 Postsecondary Tennessee Board of Regents Tennessee College Pays Tennessee Promise University of Tennessee Tennessee Independent Colleges & Universities Association Student Advisement and Transitions A Path of Choice Report Career Exploration (Course Standards) CollegeForTN.org Pathways Tennessee Seamless Pathways Report School Counseling Student Advisory Council Report Student Milestones for College & Career Readiness Transition Tennessee