Wisconsin’s Future Population Projections for the State, Its Counties and Municipalities, 2010 - 2040 December 2013 David Egan-Robertson UW-Madison Applied Population Laboratory Prepared for the Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center Wisconsin’s Future Population 2010 – 2040 Table of Contents Letter from DOA Secretary.................................................................................................................................................... iii Highlights ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1 Assumptions of the Projections ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Past Experience, Projected Future: The State’s Population Change .......................................................................... 4 County Projections, 2010 - 2040 .................................................................................................................................... 18 Municipal Projections, 2013 - 2040................................................................................................................................ 22 Acknowledgements The state, county and municipal projections for 2010 through 2040 summarized in this document were prepared under a Memorandum of Understanding between the Wisconsin Department of Administration, Division of Intergovernmental Relations and the University of Wisconsin – Madison Department of Community and Environmental Sociology, Applied Population Laboratory. The author wishes to acknowledge the assistance of those who provided data, calculation assistance and advice during the development of these projections: Karl Pearson, Demographer, Wisconsin Department of Health Services Balkrishna Kale, demographer (retired), Demographic Services Center Dan Barroilhet, Demographer, Demographic Services Center Philip Wells, Program & Policy Analyst, Demographic Services Center More Information For additional details or assistance with the population projections, please contact: Dan Barroilhet or Phil Wells Demographic Services Center Wisconsin Department of Administration 101 E. Wilson Street, P.O. Box 8944 Madison, WI 53708-8944 Phones (608) 266-1755 or (608) 266-1927 Emails daniel.barroilhet@wisconsin.gov or philip.wells@wisconsin.gov For inquiries regarding the methodology of these population projections, please contact: David Egan-Robertson, Demographer Applied Population Laboratory University of Wisconsin - Madison 1450 Linden Drive, Room 316 Madison, WI 53706 Phone (608) 890-2077 Email daeganrobert@wisc.edu Highlights State Projections, 2010 - 2040  Wisconsin’s population in 2040 is projected to be nearly 6,500,000, a gain of more than 800,000 people, or 14 percent, from 2010.  Each decade will be marked by specific demographic patterns: o 2010 – 2020: --Net migration, after being slightly negative in the first five years, returns to a strong net gain in the latter half of the decade, matching the state’s pattern of the 1990s. --Births remain well ahead of deaths, providing a solid component of natural increase to the state’s population, accounting for more than twothirds of the decade’s gain. --The total population will grow more than 315,000, nearly equaling the 2000-2010 numeric growth of 323,000. o 2020 – 2030: --Net migration will continue to be strongly positive, producing nearly one-half of the decade’s increase in population. --The leading edge of the Baby Boom reaches age 80 in mid-decade. Even with improvements in life expectancy, the size of the “Boomer” cohort will lead to an inevitable increase in deaths. While the number of births will still grow, it will not keep pace with the rise in deaths, thus leading to a reduction in the natural increase component. --The total population will grow more than 370,000, the largest decadal change since the 1990s. o 2030 – 2040: --Deaths among the Boomers will continue to rise. The number of births will increase only slightly. Natural increase, while remaining positive, will decelerate rapidly. --Net migration is expected to also lose pace after 15 years of strong growth. --The total population will grow by 115,000 for the decade.  Across the full 30 years: o The preschool- and school-aged populations—ages 0 through 17—will decrease slightly from 1,339,500 in 2010 to 1,311,500 in 2015, then grow steadily to a peak of 1,390,000 in 2035. At 1,381,000 in 2040, this age group will have a net gain of 3.1 percent from the beginning to the end of the projection period. o The school-aged population alone—ages 5 through 17—will follow a similar pattern: decline from 981,000 in 2010 to 962,500 in 2015, then a gradual increase to 1,012,500 at 2035. At 1,007,500 in 2040, the net 1 gain across the 30 years will be 2.7 percent. o The traditional working-age population—ages 18 through 64—will rise modestly from 3,570,000 in 2010 to 3,603,000 in 2020, then begin a slow decline during the 2020s and 2030s to 3,575,000 in 2040, resulting in a 0.1 percent increase across time. o The elderly population—age 65 and over—will increase rapidly in every five-year interval, from 777,500 in 2010 to 1,535,500 in 2040, nearly doubling in 30 years. o The very elderly population—age 85 and over—will rise steadily from 118,500 in 2010 to 145,500 in 2025, then nearly double to 283,500 in the following fifteen years. From 2010 to 2040, this age group will increase 140 percent. o The state’s population of centenarians is expected to increase from approximately 1,200 in 2010 to 3,800 in 2040. o The shares of three broad age groups will change across the 30-year time span in this manner: --Ages 0-17: from 23% in 2010 to 21% in 2040 --Ages 18-64: from 63% in 2010 to 55% in 2040 --Ages 65 & over: from 14% in 2010 to 24% in 2040 o The state’s median age is projected to rise from 38.4 years in 2010 to 42.4 in 2040. In comparison, the Census Bureau projects the national median will rise from 37.7 to 40.4 years across the same period. o Life expectancy at birth will rise from 77.3 years at 2010 to 81.5 years in 2040 for males and from 82.0 years at 2010 to 85.7 years in 2040 for females. Wisconsin’s life expectancies will continue to outpace those predicted for the national population. County Projections, 2010 - 2040  Across the entire 30-year period, 57 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties are projected to increase in population. Of these, 25 are expected to exceed the state’s growth rate of 14.1% from 2010 to 2040.  As the population ages, more Wisconsin counties are projected to move from the condition of natural increase (more births than deaths) to natural decrease (more deaths than births). The projections indicate that, while 18 counties experienced natural decrease in the 2000s, the number will rise to 29 in the 2010s, 33 in the 2020s, and 45 in the 2030s.  As the state’s net migration flow improves in future years, counties with positive gains in migrants are projected to increase from 49 in the 2000s to 64 in the 2010s and 69 in the 2020s. As net migration slows again in the 2030s, 54 counties will still have positive in-migration. 2  Saint Croix County is projected to be the top percentage gainer —41 percent— in the state. Dane County is predicted to be the top numeric gainer—adding almost 119,000 people—over 30 years.  Buoyed by strong natural increase, Milwaukee County’s population is expected to grow over time and exceed 1 million around 2035. It share of the state’s total will remain close to its current ratio of 1 in 6 residents. Municipal Projections, 2013 – 20401  Of the state’s 1,852 current municipalities, 1,300 (70%) are projected to gain population through 2040 and approximately 540 (29%) are projected to lose population. (The balance are expected to have the same population at 2040 as at 2010.)  In aggregate, cities will contain the largest number and share of state residents at 2040 (3.5 million, 54%). Villages are predicted to experience a greater percentage growth than cities and towns over the 27-year period, of 22%, and will have approximately 1.1 million inhabitants at 2040. Towns are projected to have 1.9 million residents, an increase of 14% from 2013, but their share of the state’s population will remain at 29%.  The state’s largest city, Milwaukee, is projected to gradually gain population and reach a total of 627,400 in 2040. The second largest city, Madison, is projected to have the largest numeric gain over 27 years—43,150—to reach 281,150 in 2040.  Kenosha is projected to gain enough residents by 2020 to supplant Green Bay as the state’s third largest city. In addition, Waukesha is predicted to surpass both Appleton and Racine to become the fifth largest city at 2030. The state and county projections use the 2010 Census as their “point of departure” for calculating into the future. The municipal projections use the most recent Demographic Services Center’s estimates as their basis. Additional descriptions of the methodologies and their differences are explained in a separate document. 1 3 Assumptions of the Projections The projections that Demographic Services Center has produced over the past 40 are referred to as “baseline projections.” That is, the predictions of the population of the state and its constituent areas are based on the primary assumption that past demographic and economic patterns, on a large scale, will hold true into the future. This baseline framework guides our thinking in specific ways. For example, it is presumed that there will be no substantial shifts in the state’s economy (e.g., the emergence of extensive extractive industries, such as oil or gas, which would change the patterns of in- and out-migration) or natural or man-made disasters that would greatly affect the populace. As another example, if it is noted that the working-age population of a county is declining over time, no attempt is made to maintain a certain ratio of potential workers to children and retirees. Population projections are not a statement of what will happen, but an inference of what might happen, IF past patterns and probable future trends hold true. The specific projections model that Demographic Services uses for the state and its counties is patterned upon the cohort-component method. This methodology takes a base period experience of fertility, mortality and migration (for this release, the 2000 – 2010 intercensal period) and modifies the age- and sex-specific rates for each of these components, based on indicators provided by federal sources, going forward into the future. In other words, a basic assumption is that “As goes the nation, so goes Wisconsin.” Historical Wisconsin data—extending back 30 years or more—also influence the shaping of future rates, particularly in the realm of migration. Similarly, the municipal projections rely on historic patterns; specifically, the growth rates of individual communities since 1990, with greater weight given to recent change than distant change. While other U.S. states have used projections models that incorporate employment forecasts—specifically, the need or demand for workers in relationship to supply—it has been found that the cohort-component model, with its focus on basic demographic events, is the most effective for Wisconsin. Past Experience, Projected Future: The State’s Population Change Wisconsin’s population change during the 2000-2010 decade can be viewed as two distinctly different five-year periods. Based on Demographic Services’ annual estimates, the state’s growth of 221,000 for 2000-2005 nearly matched the 1995-2000 change of 230,000, and the percentage gain was a solid 4.1%, or an average of about 0.8% per year. However, the slowing of the housing construction market and the recession that began in late 2007 led to a stall of the state’s growth. For the second 4 Wisconsin’s Population, 1980-2010, at 5-Year Intervals Numeric Percent Year Population Change Change 1980 4,705,642 --1985 4,771,758 66,116 1.4 1990 4,891,769 120,011 2.5 1995 5,134,123 242,374 5.0 2000 5,363,715 229,572 4.5 2005 5,584,522 220,807 4.1 2010 5,686,986 102,464 1.8 half of the decade, the total population increase fell to 102,000, or 1.8%; in the last three years, the state likely experienced net out-migration (i.e., more residents moving out than moving in). Still, for the decade as a whole, the state gained approximately 323,000 residents, for a decadal percent change of 6.0 percent. The state added 80,000 inhabitants through net migration (compared to 228,000 in the 1990s and a net out-migration of -127,000 in the 1980s). Natural increase (births minus deaths) provided a gain of 243,000; by comparison, natural increase was 244,000 in the 1990s and 313,000 in the 1980s. The population projections in the near term reflect the probability that the state’s economy will begin to improve during the current five-year period, increasing job growth and thus leading to net migration turning from negative to positive in 2014 and 2015. Net migration is then expected to increase steadily through 2020. In addition, births—which, like migration, have experienced a recessionary dip recently, to below 70,000 statewide per year—will “bounce back,” exceeding 350,000 for the five-year period of 2015-2020. For the entire decade, overall growth will not be much Wisconsin’s Projected Population, different from the 2000-2010, and can be 2010-2040, at 5-Year Intervals thought of as a mirror reflection of that Projected Numeric Percent Year period. (Each of the demographic compoPopulation Change Change nents—births, deaths and migration—will be 2010 5,686,986 --discussed in greater detail in separate 2015 5,783,015 96,029 1.7 sections that follow.) 2020 6,005,080 222,065 3.8 2025 6,203,850 198,770 3.3 Beyond 2020, growth is projected to be 2030 6,375,910 172,060 2.8 strongest in the 2020-2030 period. Migration 2035 6476,270 100,360 1.6 should still remain positive, births will 2040 6,491,635 15,365 0.2 continue to exceed deaths substantially—at least for the first five years—and overall growth is expected to be more than 370,000, or 6.2% Like the United States and much of the developed world, Wisconsin in the 2020s will begin facing the demographic inevitability of the Baby Boom (persons born 1946 through 1964) reaching the ages when mortality rates accelerate. The “leading edge” of the Boomer generation will be 75 in 2021. In recent history, and projected through 2020, Wisconsin has maintained and will maintain a relatively steady natural increase (births minus deaths) in the range of 22,000 to 26,000 annually. In particular, the number of deaths has been remarkably stable, ranging from only 44,000 to 48,000 annually from 1993 through 2011. While births are projected to continue to rise numerically through the entire projections period (primarily due to the increasing population), the number of deaths will begin to climb rapidly after 2020, passing the annual thresholds of 50,000 during 2020-2025, 55,000 during 2025-2030, 60,000 during 2030-2035 and 65,000 during 2035-2040. 5 In short, natural increase during the 2030s will be reduced substantially. In addition, after fifteen years of solid gains through net in-migration, the state’s migration rate is expected to slow. Nonetheless, the state is projected to gain more than 115,000 residents from 2030 to 2040, or 1.8%. Components of Population Change: Births, Deaths and Migration As mentioned earlier, the projection of Wisconsin’s population relies on three demographic categories: fertility, mortality, and migration. Base rates for each of these components were calculated and then carried forward into the future based on national forecasts and historical experience. Then the population was aged forward, being exposed, in effect, to the projected rates for each 5-year age and sex cohort. The demographic components are discussed in detail below. Births (Fertility) The fertility, or birth, rate of a population can be measured and expressed in a number of ways. A common metric is the total fertility rate or TFR. Across time, the number of births per female can be tracked through women’s fertile years to compute a cohort-based TFR. However, a similar period TFR can be calculated for a limited time frame for all women as a whole, using current age-specific fertility rates as a basis. In short, a period TFR is a synthesized one-number estimate of the average number of children a woman would bear if she completed her reproductive period at the current age-specific rates. The period TFR is useful for sketching a geographic area’s fertility rate at particular points in history, or as a comparison among geographies (e.g., different counties or states). Total Fertility Rate, Wisconsin, at 5-Year Intervals Since the early 1970s, 4.500 Wisconsin’s total fertility rate 4.111 has remained relatively steady. 4.000 Following the Baby Boom 3.500 (generally defined in the United States as the period from 1946 3.000 through 1964), the state’s TFR fell from its peak of more than 4 2.500 children per woman to less than 1.891 1.826 2.000 2 per woman in 1975. 1.500 Wisconsin’s fluctuations in TFR 1.000 also track the national pattern quite well across time. The effect 0.500 of the two recessions in the past decade—around 2001-2002 and 0.000 2007-2009—can be seen in declines in the fertility rates during those times, in the graph Data Source: WI Dept. of Health Services of single-year TFRs from 1995 6 through 2010. Wisconsin and U.S. Total Fertility Rates, Annual, 1995-2010 Wisconsin United States 2.150 2.100 2.050 2.000 1.950 1.900 1.850 1.800 1.750 1.700 1.650 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Data Sources: WI Dept. of Health Services, National Center for Health Statistics In creating future fertility rates for Wisconsin (or any state, the U.S., or most developed countries, for that matter), one must countervail this recent downward turn related to the 2007-2009 Great Recession. Recent academic research indicates that the current low period of fertility (and births) is a Projected Wisconsin Total Fertility Rates, 2010situation of delayed, but not 2040, at 5-Year Intervals foregone, child-bearing. In 2.050 Wisconsin’s case, it is ex2.040 pected that the fertility rate 2.021 2.000 and number of births will 2.001 increase again as the state’s 1.981 economy improves. The 1.950 1.961 fertility rate is likely to return 1.942 to pre-recession levels within 1.900 the first five years of the 1.891 projections period, then 1.850 increase at a gradual pace 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 through the remainder of the projections’ time frame. 7 Births per 1,000 women Underlying the total Wisconsin Age-Specific Fertility Rates, 1990, 2000 & 2010 fertility rate are ageActual, and 2020, 2030 and 2040 Projected specific fertility rates (ASFRs), which are 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 calculated and forecast for women, usually in 140.0 five-year age groups, in 120.0 their “fertile” years. Of 100.0 particular note in 80.0 Wisconsin is that, for the past two decades, 60.0 the ASFRs for younger 40.0 women—ages 10-14 20.0 through 25-29—have been decreasing and 0.0 those for older women— 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 ages 30-34 and higher— have been increasing. Hence, in projections mode, even though the overall fertility rate is increasing, the age-specific rates for younger women should show a continued downward pattern and for older women an ongoing upward pattern. What do these assumptions and calculations mean for the number of projected births? After an initial decrease in the first five-year period, the expected increase in fertility rates, intersecting with a projected larger fertile female population over time, will increase the number of births gradually for most of the projections period. Wisconsin Births, 2000-2010 Actual and 2010-2040 Projected 400,000 380,000 360,000 340,000 358,065 347,023 349,945 357,705 365,935 370,865 374,185 375,075 320,000 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 Actual 2000-Actual 2005- Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2005 2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 8 Deaths (Mortality) Like fertility, there are useful summary measures for discussing mortality. The most common single-number metric is life expectancy at birth, which is usually calculated separately for men and women because each sex faces different mortality risks across their lifetimes. Similar to the total fertility rate, life expectancy is a synthesized onenumber estimate based upon the mortality rates (or, conversely, survival rates) of agespecific cohorts over a defined period of time, such as a year or decade. Wisconsin’s recent history in life expectancy is a positive one. Over the past three decades, the state has seen steady improvement in the survivability of both men and women. In addition, the gain in life expectancy for males has progressed at a faster rate than for women, so that the gap between the sexes has decreased from nearly 7 years to about 5 years. Similar patterns have been seen at the national level as well. Finally, Wisconsin’s life expectancies, relative to the U.S. values, have been higher across time. At the midpoint of the past decade, the state’s life expectancies were 1.31 years higher than the nation’s for men and 0.96 years higher for women. Wisconsin Life Expectancies At Birth, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 84 81.4 82 79.7 80 78 76.6 76 74 80.3 74.5 72.9 72 70 68 Male Female Looking toward future decades, it is likely that the state will continue to outpace the national life expectancies. Using the Census Bureau’s 2008 national projections as a guide, age-specific survival rates were calculated and then re-summarized to corresponding life expectancy values. As the graph on the next page indicates, the difference between Wisconsin’s and the United States’ projected life expectancies will widen slightly over the 2010 – 2040 period; the state’s advantage for men will rise from 1.3 to 1.6 years, for women from 1.0 to 1.2 years. 9 Wisconsin Life Expectancies at 5-Year Intervals, 2005 Estimated and 2010-2040 Projected, with U.S. Values for Comparison WI Male WI Female US Male US Female 88.0 86.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 81.4 82.0 80.4 76.6 77.3 82.6 78.1 84.5 83.9 83.3 84.5 80.1 79.5 78.8 85.7 85.1 81.5 80.8 79.9 75.3 74.0 Estimated 2005 Projected 2010 Projected 2015 The leading edge of the Baby Boom will reach age 80 in 2026. Even with improvements in life expectancy, the sheer size of the “Boomer” cohort will lead to an inevitable increase in deaths, particularly across the final 15 years of the 2010 – 2040 projections period. The graph at right illustrates the projected increase in deaths for Wisconsin residents who were born in the 1946 – 1964 period. Across the 30-year projections, deaths among this cohort (persons of ages of 46-64 in 2010, approximately) will almost quintuple by the 2035 – 2040 interval. Projected 2020 Projected 2030 Projected 2035 Projected 2040 Projected Deaths Among the Baby Boom Cohort 219,995 225,000 200,000 173,255 175,000 150,000 127,855 125,000 92,720 100,000 65,385 75,000 46,660 50,000 25,000 This demographic inevitability— the aging and eventual mortality of the Baby Boom generation— will impact the numeric and percentage growth of Wisconsin in the future. Projected 2025 0 10 Population growth consists of two basic elements: natural increase—births minus deaths—and migration. While the number of births will still grow over the next 30 years (illustrated on page 8), it will not keep pace with the rise in deaths, thus leading to a reduction in the natural increase component. Wisconsin Deaths, 2000-2010 Actual and 2010-2040 Projected 350,000 337,375 300,000 310,140 283,650 250,000 200,000 232,041 229,714 239,190 248,595 262,775 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 In short, natural increase’s contribution to Wisconsin’s population change will decline across time, to—in the final 5-year interval—roughly one-third of the numeric level seen in the 2000-2010 period. Wisconsin Natural Increase, 2000-2010 Actual and 2010-2040 Projected 140,000 120,000 100,000 128,351 114,982 110,755 109,110 80,000 103,165 87,215 60,000 64,040 40,000 37,700 20,000 0 Actual Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 11 Migration The measurement of migration is best understood as a “net” process. That is, people migrate into an area over a period of time, and others move out of that same area; the net gain or loss due to migration is the result of the in-flow minus the out-flow. These latter gross measures (in- and out-migration) are usually difficult to ascertain, unlike births and deaths that are recorded as official vital events. Thus, net migration is calculated through a residual process: it is the difference between total population change and natural increase. Wisconsin’s net migration, in total, has varied extensively across the past three decades. After a decade of negative net migration in the 1980s—related in large part to the “Rust Belt” recession in the early part of the decade—migration rebounded strongly into positive territory in the 1990s. Net migration remained robust through the early part of the 2000s, but began to turn negative in the latter part of the decade, again traceable to an economic recession. Wisconsin Net Migrants, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s 250,000 227,637 200,000 150,000 100,000 79,938 50,000 (50,000) (100,000) (126,996) (150,000) Net migration also follows a 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 particular pattern based on age and sex. In Wisconsin, recent decades have been marked by net gains of young people ages 0-4 through 15-19 (the latter group being affected by the influx of out-of-state students attending Wisconsin’s many universities and colleges), out-migration in the post-college cohorts ages 20-24 and 25-29 (sometimes through 30-34), and then gains in “young families” cohorts starting with ages 30-34 or 35-39. Adult migration tends to remain positive, but tapering, until about age 60; beyond that age—early retirees onward—migration tends to be neutral, slightly higher in some decades and slightly lower in others. The graph at the top of the next page shows the age-sex net migration rates for the state in the past decade. This pattern, or “signature,” tends to hold across time: in decades with strong positive net gain, all of these rates will rise, usually with the strongest increases in the young-adult categories; in decades of net out-migration, all of these rates will fall, with the largest drops occurring among younger adults. 12 Wisconsin, Net Migration Rates by Age Group and Sex, 2000-2010 Male Female 0.120 0.100 0.080 0.060 0.040 0.020 0.000 -0.020 -0.040 -0.060 -0.080 -0.100 Age at End of Decade Decadal net migration by age produces a signatural pattern. When annual values of net migration—based on Demographic Services Center’s forty years of estimates—are analyzed, a cyclical or periodic shape is apparent. 13 For this set of state population projections, this cyclical pattern was extended 30 years into the future. For the past six years, Wisconsin has been in a migration “trough,” not unlike the early 1980s. However, the net out-flow appears to have “bottomed out.” A gradual return to positive net migration is projected to occur as the economy improves. Subsequently, the migration component is forecast to be strongly positive for the three five-year periods from 2015 to 2030, similar in numbers to the 1990s. Then, following the cyclical pattern, net migration will “cool off” in the 2030-2040 decade. Nevertheless, over the entire 30-year period, Wisconsin is projected to gain nearly 300,000 residents through migration. Wisconsin Net Migration, 2000-2010 Estimated* and 2010-2040 Projected 120,000 90,000 112,955 105,834 95,605 84,845 60,000 30,000 36,320 0 -14,730 -22,335 -25,897 -30,000 Estimated Estimated Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040 *Net migration for 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 is estimated because mid-decade 4/1/2005 population is estimated. Age Distribution of the Population Although the state’s total population is expected to grow by 14 percent—and more than 800,000 residents—over the 30-year projection period, the change will be much greater in certain age groups and much lower in others. In particular, shifts in the age distribution will be heavily Wisconsin Population, 2010 Census and concentrated in the older age 2040 Projection, by Age Groups categories. Census Projected Num. Pct. Age Group The adjoining table illustrates the Census 2010 and projected 2040 residents by significant age categories, and the projected numeric and percentage change of each group. It is clear that, while growth in the population below 0-4 5-17 18-24 25-44 45-64 65-84 85 & over TOTAL 14 2010 358,443 981,049 549,256 1,447,360 1,573,564 658,809 118,505 5,686,986 2040 373,940 1,007,370 563,995 1,493,595 1,517,370 1,251,765 283,600 6,491,635 Change 15,497 26,321 14,739 46,235 -56,194 592,956 165,095 804,649 Change 4.3% 2.7% 2.7% 3.2% -3.6% 90.0% 139.3% 14.1% age 65 will be relatively flat, the number of “young elderly” (ages 65-84) will almost double, and the “old elderly” (ages 85 and over) will nearly increase one and one-half. As indicated in the discussion on mortality and migration above, this growth in the elderly population will be due almost solely to the aging of the existing state’s residents into these older age cohorts. Finally, consolidating the age groups into three broad categories—under 18, 18 through 64, 65 and older—allows a comparison of the proportion of the population that each group formed at 2010 and is projected to form at 2040. Wisconsin, Projected 2040, Population Shares by Age Group Wisconsin, Census 2010, Population Shares by Age Group 65 & over 13.7% 65 & over 23.7% 0-17 23.6% 18-64 62.8% 0-17 21.3% 18-64 55.1% Wisconsin Population, 2010 - 2040, by Broad Age Groups Age Group 0-17 18-64 65 & over Census 2010 1,339,492 3,570,180 777,314 Projected 2015 1,311,425 3,576,670 894,920 Projected 2020 1,338,370 3,602,780 1,063,930 Projected 2025 1,366,010 3,580,325 1,257,515 Projected 2030 1,385,735 3,565,855 1,424,320 Projected 2035 1,390,055 3,577,580 1,508,635 Projected 2040 1,381,310 3,574,960 1,535,365 The share of the population ages 0-17 will remain fairly similar, declining only a few percentage points and, numerically, growing only slightly from 1.339 million to 1.381 million. The share of 18-64 year olds is projected to drop more than seven percentage points and, numerically, barely growing from 3.570 million to 3.575 million. Finally, the share of the population age 65 and over will gain ten percentage points and, numerically, increase from 777,000 to 1.535 million. The number of elderly Wisconsin residents is forecast to exceed the number of children at some point during the latter half of the 2020s. 15 Wisconsin Population Projections, Data Tables Total Population by 5-Year Age Groups Age Census 2015 2020 Group 2010 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100& up Total 2030 2035 2040 358,443 368,617 375,927 399,209 386,552 372,347 349,347 345,328 380,338 437,627 436,126 385,986 313,825 227,029 173,467 141,252 117,061 75,603 33,113 8,610 1,179 348,765 363,655 377,655 379,425 380,885 370,675 368,245 349,490 343,535 375,320 431,060 427,445 371,940 295,185 207,400 150,335 113,175 77,980 38,845 10,430 1,570 367,375 364,545 383,845 392,775 373,460 376,555 377,935 379,710 358,305 349,630 376,700 425,420 414,895 352,625 272,405 182,195 122,575 77,200 42,065 12,835 2,030 374,170 382,055 382,700 397,510 384,870 367,990 382,245 388,135 387,720 363,245 350,300 371,900 413,495 394,550 326,790 240,540 149,890 84,965 43,580 14,575 2,625 378,340 387,965 399,955 395,015 388,465 378,155 372,535 391,530 395,265 392,195 363,770 346,125 362,275 394,370 366,910 290,250 199,680 105,640 49,025 15,380 3,065 377,720 387,985 401,440 408,260 381,420 377,090 379,075 377,460 394,665 395,540 390,595 359,210 337,175 345,885 367,960 327,625 242,920 142,595 60,845 17,495 3,310 373,940 382,295 396,070 404,610 388,390 365,050 373,355 379,205 375,985 390,445 391,455 385,420 350,050 322,205 323,370 329,970 276,220 175,915 81,480 22,365 3,840 5,686,986 5,783,015 6,005,080 6,203,850 6,375,910 6,476,270 6,491,635 2025 2030 2035 2040 Male Population by 5-Year Age Groups Age Census 2015 2020 Group 2010 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100& up Total 2025 183,391 188,286 192,232 204,803 196,897 189,349 178,120 174,619 191,738 218,539 218,303 192,952 155,756 109,168 81,067 62,181 47,549 26,326 9,226 1,743 155 2,822,400 178,310 186,000 192,975 194,170 194,615 188,565 186,840 177,620 173,475 188,940 214,725 213,200 184,820 144,745 97,920 67,525 46,955 28,655 11,755 2,365 195 2,874,370 187,960 186,555 196,650 201,605 190,970 192,585 192,285 192,660 182,405 176,835 189,470 211,105 205,685 173,050 131,135 82,715 52,045 29,070 13,540 3,185 290 2,991,800 191,315 195,530 195,955 204,465 197,235 188,360 195,620 197,480 196,990 185,250 177,105 186,515 204,040 193,360 157,705 111,770 64,605 32,925 14,510 3,910 430 3,095,075 16 193,460 198,365 204,695 203,060 199,595 194,090 190,730 200,285 201,305 199,570 185,400 174,550 180,780 192,490 177,030 135,455 88,400 41,765 16,920 4,315 555 3,182,815 193,040 198,270 205,265 209,510 195,560 193,835 194,425 192,990 201,930 201,690 198,640 182,775 169,355 170,915 177,095 153,180 108,385 58,240 21,650 5,145 645 3,232,540 191,205 195,375 202,355 207,125 198,340 186,770 191,570 194,060 192,180 199,800 199,430 195,830 177,580 160,440 157,770 154,190 123,810 72,675 30,270 6,840 800 3,238,415 Female Population by 5-Year Age Groups Age Census 2015 2020 Group 2010 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100& up Total 175,052 180,331 183,695 194,406 189,655 182,998 171,227 170,709 188,600 219,088 217,823 193,034 158,069 117,861 92,400 79,071 69,512 49,277 23,887 6,867 1,024 2,864,586 170,455 177,655 184,680 185,255 186,270 182,110 181,405 171,870 170,060 186,380 216,335 214,245 187,120 150,440 109,480 82,810 66,220 49,325 27,090 8,065 1,375 2,908,645 2025 179,415 177,990 187,195 191,170 182,490 183,970 185,650 187,050 175,900 172,795 187,230 214,315 209,210 179,575 141,270 99,480 70,530 48,130 28,525 9,650 1,740 3,013,280 182,855 186,525 186,745 193,045 187,635 179,630 186,625 190,655 190,730 177,995 173,195 185,385 209,455 201,190 169,085 128,770 85,285 52,040 29,070 10,665 2,195 3,108,775 2030 184,880 189,600 195,260 191,955 188,870 184,065 181,805 191,245 193,960 192,625 178,370 171,575 181,495 201,880 189,880 154,795 111,280 63,875 32,105 11,065 2,510 3,193,095 2035 184,680 189,715 196,175 198,750 185,860 183,255 184,650 184,470 192,735 193,850 191,955 176,435 167,820 174,970 190,865 174,445 134,535 84,355 39,195 12,350 2,665 3,243,730 Total Population Change, 5-Year Intervals, by Period and Cumulatively Census 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010 Total Population 2040 182,735 186,920 193,715 197,485 190,050 178,280 181,785 185,145 183,805 190,645 192,025 189,590 172,470 161,765 165,600 175,780 152,410 103,240 51,210 15,525 3,040 3,253,220 2040 5,686,986 5,783,015 6,005,080 6,203,850 6,375,910 6,476,270 6,491,635 5-year Num. Change 5-year Pct. Change 96,029 1.7% 96,029 1.7% 222,065 3.8% 318,094 5.6% 198,770 3.3% 516,864 9.1% 172,060 2.8% 688,924 12.1% 100,360 1.6% 789,284 13.9% 15,365 0.2% 804,649 14.1% Total Population Change by Components of Change, 5-year Intervals 20102015202020252030Component 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Births 349,945 357,703 365,936 370,865 374,184 Deaths 239,188 248,595 262,773 283,651 310,142 20352040 375,074 337,373 Cumulative Num. Change Cumulative Pct. Change Natural Increase Net Migration Total Change 110,757 -14,728 96,029 109,108 112,957 222,065 103,163 95,607 198,770 17 87,214 84,846 172,060 64,042 36,318 100,360 37,701 -22,336 15,365 County Projections, 2010 - 2040 Across the full 30-year period of these projections, it is predicted that 57 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties will have a population at 2040 that is higher than it was at 2010. Most of the strong-gaining counties are in metropolitan statistical areas or are ones that adjoin metropolitan areas (e.g., Polk, Jefferson, Walworth), or are projected to have strong natural increase (e.g., Clark, Menominee, Trempealeau, Vernon). In contrast, most of the counties that are projected to lose population, or have very low growth rates, are in the northern part of the state. These counties, which currently have higher percentages of older residents, will be most affected by natural decrease as time progresses. This pattern of some counties losing population is not unprecedented; for example, for the 1980 – 2010 period, 12 counties lost population. Looking only at the 2010 – 2040 change masks the growth patterns within the 30-year time frame. Certain counties will reach population peaks prior to the end year, then decline as mortality has a greater effect in later years. However, there are a few that, based on the projections, are predicted to decline and stay below their 2010 Census counts. 18 Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Year of Peak Projected Population Counties Buffalo, Price, Wood Bayfield, Pepin, Rusk Ashland Adams, Barron, Crawford, Door, Florence, Grant, Green Lake, Iron, Kewaunee, Langlade, Lincoln, Manitowoc, Marinette, Marquette, Oneida, Sawyer, Vilas, Waupaca Burnett, Columbia, Dodge, Douglas, Fond du Lac, Forest, Green, Iowa, Jackson, Juneau, Menominee, Oconto, Ozaukee, Polk, Racine, Richland, Shawano, Sheboygan, Taylor, Washburn, Waukesha, Waushara Brown, Calumet, Chippewa, Clark, Dane, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jefferson, Kenosha, La Crosse, Lafayette, Marathon, Milwaukee, Monroe, Outagamie, Pierce, Portage, Rock, St. Croix, Sauk, Trempealeau, Vernon, Walworth, Washington, Winnebago Fastest-Growing and Largest Counties Saint Croix County is projected to be the fastest-growing county, in terms of percentage change, through 2040, increasing by 41%. As a component county of the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan area, it also ranked as Wisconsin’s top-growing county from 1980 to 2010. Calumet County—containing much of the suburban growth southeast of Appleton—is predicted to be the second-fastest growing county, increasing by 31% by 2040. Dane County, projected to be the sixth largest gainer in percentage terms, is expected to experience the highest numeric growth in the state through 2040. Fastest Growing Counties (by Percent), 2010 - 2040 County Census Projected Numeric Percent Name 2010 2040 Change Change Saint Croix Calumet Kenosha Brown Sauk Dane Washington Clark Vernon Menominee 84,345 48,971 166,426 248,007 61,976 488,073 131,887 34,690 29,773 4,232 119,010 64,210 209,670 312,320 77,815 606,620 163,890 42,980 36,520 5,170 34,665 15,239 43,244 64,313 15,839 118,547 32,003 8,290 6,747 938 41.1% 31.1% 26.0% 25.9% 25.6% 24.3% 24.3% 23.9% 22.7% 22.2% Among the state’s largest counties, Milwaukee will continue its position as the most populous in the state and is projected to gain about 70,000 additional residents, increasing to more than 1 million residents. The four largest counties—Milwaukee, 19 Dane, Waukesha, and Brown—are predicted to maintain their ranked position, but Outagamie County is expected to pass Racine to become the 5th largest. In addition, Kenosha County is likely to exchange places with Winnebago, and Washington County will increase over time to surpass Marathon and become the 10th largest county. Largest Counties (by Size at 2040), 2010-2040 County Name Census Projected Numeric Percent 2010 2040 Change Change Milwaukee Dane Waukesha Brown Outagamie Racine Kenosha Winnebago Rock Washington 947,735 488,073 389,891 248,007 176,695 195,408 166,426 166,994 160,331 131,887 1,016,250 606,620 455,720 312,320 215,290 213,760 209,670 193,130 182,860 163,890 68,515 118,547 65,829 64,313 38,595 18,352 43,244 26,136 22,529 32,003 7.2% 24.3% 16.9% 25.9% 21.8% 9.4% 26.0% 15.7% 14.1% 24.3% Size Rank, 2010 Size Rank, 2040 1 2 3 4 6 5 8 7 9 11 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Counties with Greatest Population Decline As mentioned earlier, 15 counties are projected to lose population between 2010 and 2040. The ten with the predicted greatest percentage decline are shown below. Population losses will be due to both rising natural decrease (i.e., the number of deaths exceeding births) and reduced net in-migration, or actual out-migration. Counties with Greatest Percent Decline, 2010 -2040 County Census Projected Numeric Percent Name 2010 2040 Change Change Door Buffalo Wood Ashland Pepin Iron Bayfield Florence Rusk Price 27,785 13,587 74,749 16,157 7,469 5,916 15,014 4,423 14,755 14,159 26,620 13,000 71,150 15,315 6,885 5,420 13,725 4,030 13,310 11,645 20 -1,165 -587 -3,599 -842 -584 -496 -1,289 -393 -1,445 -2,514 -4.2% -4.3% -4.8% -5.2% -7.8% -8.4% -8.6% -8.9% -9.8% -17.8% Age Distribution: Counties’ 65-and-over Population As noted in the state section, the projections indicate that the number of people age 65 and over will almost double numerically, and their share of the populace will rise from 13.7% to 23.7%, from 2010 to 2040. All counties will experience growth in their senior populations, ranging from 39% to 175% increases. The progression toward much older populations can be viewed across time by a summarization of the percentage of each county’s residents, in various ranges, at tenyear intervals in the projections series. Whereas nearly half of the counties had fewer than 15% of their populations age 65 and over in 2010, and none had greater than 30% (the highest being 26%), by 2040 no county will have fewer than 15% of its population being elderly, and one-third will have elderly populations greater than 30%. Age 65 and Over as Pct. of Population 10-15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-35% 35-40% Greater than 40% Number of Counties, 2010 Number of Counties, 2020 31 27 12 2 0 0 0 7 30 20 10 5 0 0 Number of Counties, 2030 0 4 27 19 14 7 1 Number of Counties, 2040 0 2 25 20 14 8 3 The two maps below illustrate the substantial change in the 65-and-over population of each county across the 30-year projections period. Counties in the far northern part of the state, in general, are projected to have more than 3 out of every 10 residents being seniors. 21 Municipal Projections, 2013 - 2040 Wisconsin’s cities, villages and towns vary substantially in population size. At the 2013 estimates, cities ranged from 482 (Bayfield) to 596,500 (Milwaukee); villages from 60 (Big Falls, Waupaca County) to 35,710 (Menomonee Falls, Waukesha County), and towns from 39 (Wilkinson, Rusk County) to 21,580 (Grand Chute, Outagamie County). Given that there are 1,852 municipalities in Wisconsin currently, it is difficult to summarize such a disparate set of communities. However, some broad statements and data summaries can be crafted, as laid out below. Projected Population Change in Cities, Villages and Towns Aggregated by municipality type, all three classes are projected to gain more than 10% in population from 2013 through 2040.2 Cities, which now constitute more than 55% of the state’s population, will add the most residents numerically and will increase 11%. Villages, which account for more than 15% of Wisconsin’s population currently, are predicted to gain more than 191,000 residents, increasing by nearly 22%. Towns, now containing almost 30% of the state’s inhabitants, are projected to add more than 233,000 new people, an increase of 14%. Municipality Type Count at 2013 Cities Villages Towns TOTALS 190 406 1,256 1,852 Estimate 2013 Projection 2040 Numeric Change Percent Change 3,173,540 874,820 1,668,750 5,717,110 3,523,640 1,065,950 1,902,045 6,491,635 350,100 191,130 233,295 774,525 11.0% 21.8% 14.0% 13.5% The shares of the state’s population in each class of municipality are projected to shift only slightly through 2040, with villages increasing about 1% and cities decreasing by a similar percent. The share living in towns at 2040 is expected to remain very similar to that at 2013. Municipality Type Share, Estimate 2013 Cities Villages Towns 55.5% 15.5% 29.0% Share, Projection 2040 54.3% 16.4% 29.3% As mentioned in the “Highlights” section, the state and county projections use the 2010 Census as their “point of departure” for calculating into the future. The municipal projections use the most recent Demographic Services Center’s estimates (January 1, 2013) as their basis. In addition, the Village of Harrison incorporated from a portion of the Town of Harrison, Calumet County in March 2013. In order to create a consistent data set of municipalities across the projections time frame, proxy estimates for the village and town remnant were created for January 1, 2013. 2 22 Projected Population Change in by Size of Municipality Wisconsin has a preponderance of small-sized municipalities. More than one-half of these local governments (978 of 1,852) contain fewer than 1,000 residents; in aggregate, they encompass only 10% of the state’s population. By contrast, the largest 5% of municipalities (about 10,000 people and above) are home to 55% of the state’s populace. As can be seen in the table below, through 2040, the combined population in municipalities that currently have up to 500 residents is projected to remain virtually the same. Of these 396 communities, approximately 42% are predicted to gain people, 56% to lose people (2% will see no change in population). In the intervening years, the aggregate population will rise slightly through 2030, but then decline to 2040; even at 2030, the change for this group of communities will only be +4%. The strongest percentage gains are expected in municipalities that currently have 2,000 to 50,000 residents. The projected population gain in these 433 municipalities will be more than two-thirds of the state’s total growth. This pattern matches previous time periods; over the preior 20 to 30 years, the largest numeric and percentage gains occurred in mid-sized municipalities. Municipality Size Range Less than 500 500 – 1,000 1,000 – 2,000 2,000 – 5,000 5,000 – 10,000 10,000 – 50,000 More than 50,000 TOTALS Count at 2013 396 582 429 267 88 78 12 1,852 Estimate 2013 Projection 2040 Numeric Change Percent Change 123,555 431,040 593,468 813,528 637,174 1,548,815 1,569,530 5,717,110 123,605 465,990 658,540 953,180 762,885 1,808,260 1,719,175 6,491,635 50 34,950 65,072 139,652 125,711 259,445 149,645 774,525 0.0% 8.1% 11.0% 17.2% 19.7% 16.8% 9.5% 13.5% Largest and Fastest-Growing Municipalities Wisconsin’s twelve largest municipalities, with current populations of 50,000 or more, contain more than one-fourth of the state’s populace. As a group, they are projected to grow by 9.5% from 2013 through 2040; their aggregated numeric gain of almost 150,000 will be approximately one-fifth of the state’ s increase. The table below lists these largest cities in size order, as predicted at 2040. Only Racine is expected to experience a loss of population, and the decline will be slight. Furthermore, Kenosha is projected to have a stronger growth rate than Green Bay, thus becoming the 3rd largest city (surpassing Green Bay in 2020). Similarly, Waukesha’s growth will move it past Appleton and Racine around 2030 to become the 5th largest. Finally, Janesville, Oshkosh and Eau Claire may change in order, although their projected populations at 2040 are so close that it is more reasonable to say that they will be in the 8th through 10th positions. 23 Largest Municipalities (by Size at 2040), 2010-2040 Municipality C C C C C C C C C C C C Milwaukee Madison Kenosha Green Bay Waukesha Appleton Racine Janesville Oshkosh Eau Claire West Allis La Crosse Estimate 2013 Projection 2040 596,500 238,000 99,700 104,300 70,900 73,150 78,700 63,600 66,300 66,480 60,300 51,600 Numeric Change 627,400 281,150 123,250 113,500 81,350 80,605 76,650 74,000 73,800 73,770 61,850 51,850 30,900 43,150 23,550 9,200 10,450 7,455 -2,050 10,400 7,500 7,290 1,550 250 Percent Change 5.2% 18.1% 23.6% 8.8% 14.7% 10.2% -2.6% 16.4% 11.3% 11.0% 2.6% 0.5% Rank 2013 1 2 4 3 7 6 5 10 9 8 11 12 Rank 2040 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 The state’s projected fastest-growing municipalities, by percentage change, are listed in the table below. All can be described as suburban communities, within commuting distance of large cities either in Wisconsin or Minnesota. Fastest Growing Municipalities (by Percent), 2010 - 2040 Municipality T Lawrence V Hobart T Ledgeview V Sherwood T Harrison V Harrison T Richmond T Hammond V Howard T Exeter V Johnson Creek C Hudson T Ixonia V Somerset T Greenville County/ Counties Brown Brown Brown Calumet Calumet Calumet/Outagamie Saint Croix Saint Croix Brown Green Jefferson Saint Croix Jefferson Saint Croix Outagamie Estimate 2013 4,511 7,070 7,074 2,763 1,282 9,708 3,339 2,136 18,348 2,041 2,818 13,187 4,540 2,642 10,773 24 Projection 2040 7,965 12,480 12,480 4,715 2,185 16,550 5,385 3,440 29,370 3,230 4,455 20,780 7,145 4,100 16,390 Numeric Change 3,454 5,410 5,406 1,952 903 6,842 2,046 1,304 11,022 1,189 1,637 7,593 2,605 1,458 5,617 Percent Change 77% 77% 76% 71% 70% 70% 61% 61% 60% 58% 58% 58% 57% 55% 52%