JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE CHAIRMAN'S MODIFICATION TO THE CHAIRMAN'S MARK OF THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT," SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON NOVEMBER 15, 2017 (1) Calendar Year 2019 INCOME CATEGORY (2) Less than $10,000.......... $10,000 to $20,000........ $20,000 to $30,000........ $30,000 to $40,000........ $40,000 to $50,000........ $50,000 to $75,000........ $75,000 to $100,000...... $100,000 to $200,000..... $200,000 to $500,000..... $500,000 to $1,000,000.. $1,000,000 and over........ Total, All Taxpayers....... CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES (3) Millions Percent -$395 -5.6% -$1,013 (5) -$1,861 -8.4% -$4,615 -9.8% -$6,371 -9.5% -$22,420 -8.5% -$21,482 -7.7% -$64,130 -6.8% -$59,377 -8.2% -$24,753 -9.7% -$33,670 -5.4% -$240,090 -7.4% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PRESENT LAW Billions Percent $7.0 0.2% -$2.4 -0.1% $22.1 0.7% $47.0 1.5% $67.3 2.1% $265.3 8.2% $279.5 8.7% $939.8 29.1% $724.3 22.4% $254.7 7.9% $624.1 19.3% $3,228.7 100.0% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PROPOSAL Billions Percent $6.6 0.2% -$3.4 -0.1% $20.3 0.7% $42.3 1.4% $60.9 2.0% $242.9 8.1% $258.1 8.6% $875.7 29.3% $664.9 22.2% $230.0 7.7% $590.4 19.8% $2,988.7 100.0% Average Tax Rate (4) Present Law Proposal Percent Percent 9.1% 8.6% -0.7% -1.0% 3.9% 3.6% 7.9% 7.2% 10.9% 9.9% 14.8% 13.5% 17.0% 15.6% 20.9% 19.5% 26.4% 24.2% 30.9% 27.8% 32.5% 30.4% 20.7% 19.1% Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Detail may not add to total due to rounding. ----------------------------------------------------(1) This table is a distributional analysis of the proposal in revenue table JCX-57-17, excluding the following sections: I. Tax Reform for Individuals: D.4.-D.6., E., H.1.-H.14. Under section G., the distribution analysis does not include the effect on the cost-sharing reductions and Medicaid spending. (2) The income concept used to place tax returns into income categories is adjusted gross income (AGI) plus: [1] tax-exempt interest, [2] employer contributions for health plans and life insurance, [3] employer share of FICA tax, [4] worker's compensation, [5] nontaxable Social Security benefits, [6] insurance value of Medicare benefits, [7] alternative minimum tax preference items, [8] individual share of business taxes, and [9] excluded income of U.S. citizens living abroad. Categories are measured at 2017 levels. (3) Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change. Individuals who are dependents of other taxpayers and taxpayers with negative income are excluded from the analysis. Does not include indirect effects. (4) The average tax rate is equal to Federal taxes described in footnote (3) divided by income described in footnote (2). (5) For returns in the $10,000 to $20,000 income category, Federal taxes would decrease from -$2.412 billion to -$3.425 billion. Page 1 JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE CHAIRMAN'S MODIFICATION TO THE CHAIRMAN'S MARK OF THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT," SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON NOVEMBER 15, 2017 (1) Calendar Year 2021 INCOME CATEGORY (2) Less than $10,000.......... $10,000 to $20,000........ $20,000 to $30,000........ $30,000 to $40,000........ $40,000 to $50,000........ $50,000 to $75,000........ $75,000 to $100,000...... $100,000 to $200,000..... $200,000 to $500,000..... $500,000 to $1,000,000.. $1,000,000 and over........ Total, All Taxpayers....... CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES (3) Millions Percent -$97 -1.4% $2,818 (5) $2,991 13.3% -$1,542 -3.2% -$3,646 -4.9% -$19,672 -6.9% -$20,923 -7.0% -$63,181 -6.2% -$59,592 -7.5% -$23,884 -8.5% -$28,134 -4.2% -$214,865 -6.1% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PRESENT LAW Billions Percent $6.9 0.2% -$4.9 -0.1% $22.5 0.6% $47.7 1.4% $73.7 2.1% $283.4 8.1% $300.3 8.6% $1,017.6 29.1% $799.8 22.9% $279.4 8.0% $671.8 19.2% $3,498.3 100.0% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PROPOSAL Billions Percent $6.8 0.2% -$2.1 -0.1% $25.5 0.8% $46.1 1.4% $70.0 2.1% $263.8 8.0% $279.4 8.5% $954.4 29.1% $740.2 22.5% $255.6 7.8% $643.7 19.6% $3,283.5 100.0% Average Tax Rate (4) Present Law Proposal Percent Percent 8.2% 8.1% -1.4% -0.6% 3.7% 4.2% 7.6% 7.4% 10.9% 10.4% 14.7% 13.7% 16.8% 15.6% 20.9% 19.6% 26.5% 24.5% 31.0% 28.2% 32.4% 30.9% 20.7% 19.4% Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Detail may not add to total due to rounding. ----------------------------------------------------(1) This table is a distributional analysis of the proposal in revenue table JCX-57-17, excluding the following sections: I. Tax Reform for Individuals: D.4.-D.6., E., H.1.-H.14. Under section G., the distribution analysis does not include the effect on the cost-sharing reductions and Medicaid spending. (2) The income concept used to place tax returns into income categories is adjusted gross income (AGI) plus: [1] tax-exempt interest, [2] employer contributions for health plans and life insurance, [3] employer share of FICA tax, [4] worker's compensation, [5] nontaxable Social Security benefits, [6] insurance value of Medicare benefits, [7] alternative minimum tax preference items, [8] individual share of business taxes, and [9] excluded income of U.S. citizens living abroad. Categories are measured at 2017 levels. (3) Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change. Individuals who are dependents of other taxpayers and taxpayers with negative income are excluded from the analysis. Does not include indirect effects. (4) The average tax rate is equal to Federal taxes described in footnote (3) divided by income described in footnote (2). (5) For returns in the $10,000 to $20,000 income category, Federal taxes would increase from -$4.888 billion to -$2.071 billion. Page 2 JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE CHAIRMAN'S MODIFICATION TO THE CHAIRMAN'S MARK OF THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT," SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON NOVEMBER 15, 2017 (1) Calendar Year 2023 INCOME CATEGORY (2) Less than $10,000.......... $10,000 to $20,000........ $20,000 to $30,000........ $30,000 to $40,000........ $40,000 to $50,000........ $50,000 to $75,000........ $75,000 to $100,000...... $100,000 to $200,000..... $200,000 to $500,000..... $500,000 to $1,000,000.. $1,000,000 and over........ Total, All Taxpayers....... CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES (3) Millions Percent $178 2.8% $3,726 (5) $3,165 12.8% -$257 -0.5% -$2,700 -3.3% -$16,998 -5.6% -$17,960 -5.5% -$51,695 -4.7% -$49,392 -5.7% -$18,515 -6.2% -$12,740 -1.8% -$163,155 -4.3% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PRESENT LAW Billions Percent $6.4 0.2% -$5.0 -0.1% $24.7 0.7% $51.0 1.4% $80.9 2.1% $305.2 8.1% $325.9 8.6% $1,103.4 29.3% $863.6 22.9% $297.6 7.9% $717.5 19.0% $3,771.1 100.0% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PROPOSAL Billions Percent $6.6 0.2% -$1.3 0.0% $27.8 0.8% $50.8 1.4% $78.2 2.2% $288.2 8.0% $308.0 8.5% $1,051.7 29.2% $814.2 22.6% $279.0 7.7% $704.8 19.5% $3,607.9 100.0% Average Tax Rate (4) Present Law Proposal Percent Percent 7.0% 7.2% -1.3% -0.3% 3.7% 4.2% 7.6% 7.6% 10.8% 10.5% 14.6% 13.8% 16.6% 15.7% 20.8% 19.8% 26.5% 24.9% 30.8% 28.8% 32.2% 31.5% 20.5% 19.6% Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Detail may not add to total due to rounding. ----------------------------------------------------(1) This table is a distributional analysis of the proposal in revenue table JCX-57-17, excluding the following sections: I. Tax Reform for Individuals: D.4.-D.6., E., H.1.-H.14. Under section G., the distribution analysis does not include the effect on the cost-sharing reductions and Medicaid spending. (2) The income concept used to place tax returns into income categories is adjusted gross income (AGI) plus: [1] tax-exempt interest, [2] employer contributions for health plans and life insurance, [3] employer share of FICA tax, [4] worker's compensation, [5] nontaxable Social Security benefits, [6] insurance value of Medicare benefits, [7] alternative minimum tax preference items, [8] individual share of business taxes, and [9] excluded income of U.S. citizens living abroad. Categories are measured at 2017 levels. (3) Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change. Individuals who are dependents of other taxpayers and taxpayers with negative income are excluded from the analysis. Does not include indirect effects. (4) The average tax rate is equal to Federal taxes described in footnote (3) divided by income described in footnote (2). (5) For returns in the $10,000 to $20,000 income category, Federal taxes would increase from -$5.044 billion to -$1.318 billion. Page 3 JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE CHAIRMAN'S MODIFICATION TO THE CHAIRMAN'S MARK OF THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT," SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON NOVEMBER 15, 2017 (1) Calendar Year 2025 INCOME CATEGORY (2) Less than $10,000.......... $10,000 to $20,000........ $20,000 to $30,000........ $30,000 to $40,000........ $40,000 to $50,000........ $50,000 to $75,000........ $75,000 to $100,000...... $100,000 to $200,000..... $200,000 to $500,000..... $500,000 to $1,000,000.. $1,000,000 and over........ Total, All Taxpayers....... CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES (3) Millions Percent $216 3.7% $3,732 (5) $3,779 13.9% -$163 -0.3% -$2,621 -3.0% -$17,327 -5.3% -$18,925 -5.4% -$54,069 -4.5% -$53,805 -5.7% -$19,799 -6.2% -$15,343 -2.0% -$164,563 -4.0% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PRESENT LAW Billions Percent $5.9 0.1% -$4.7 -0.1% $27.2 0.7% $53.7 1.3% $88.0 2.2% $328.1 8.0% $350.6 8.6% $1,197.4 29.3% $943.3 23.1% $321.5 7.9% $780.2 19.1% $4,091.1 100.0% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PROPOSAL Billions Percent $6.1 0.2% -$0.9 0.0% $31.0 0.8% $53.5 1.4% $85.4 2.2% $310.8 7.9% $331.6 8.4% $1,143.3 29.1% $889.5 22.7% $301.7 7.7% $764.8 19.5% $3,926.5 100.0% Average Tax Rate (4) Present Law Proposal Percent Percent 5.8% 6.0% -1.1% -0.2% 3.8% 4.3% 7.5% 7.5% 10.9% 10.5% 14.5% 13.7% 16.5% 15.6% 20.7% 19.8% 26.5% 25.0% 30.8% 28.8% 32.1% 31.3% 20.5% 19.7% Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Detail may not add to total due to rounding. ----------------------------------------------------(1) This table is a distributional analysis of the proposal in revenue table JCX-57-17, excluding the following sections: I. Tax Reform for Individuals: D.4.-D.6., E., H.1.-H.14. Under section G., the distribution analysis does not include the effect on the cost-sharing reductions and Medicaid spending. (2) The income concept used to place tax returns into income categories is adjusted gross income (AGI) plus: [1] tax-exempt interest, [2] employer contributions for health plans and life insurance, [3] employer share of FICA tax, [4] worker's compensation, [5] nontaxable Social Security benefits, [6] insurance value of Medicare benefits, [7] alternative minimum tax preference items, [8] individual share of business taxes, and [9] excluded income of U.S. citizens living abroad. Categories are measured at 2017 levels. (3) Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change. Individuals who are dependents of other taxpayers and taxpayers with negative income are excluded from the analysis. Does not include indirect effects. (4) The average tax rate is equal to Federal taxes described in footnote (3) divided by income described in footnote (2). (5) For returns in the $10,000 to $20,000 income category, Federal taxes would increase from -$4.664 billion to -$0.932 billion. Page 4 JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE CHAIRMAN'S MODIFICATION TO THE CHAIRMAN'S MARK OF THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT," SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON NOVEMBER 15, 2017 (1) Calendar Year 2027 INCOME CATEGORY (2) Less than $10,000.......... $10,000 to $20,000........ $20,000 to $30,000........ $30,000 to $40,000........ $40,000 to $50,000........ $50,000 to $75,000........ $75,000 to $100,000...... $100,000 to $200,000..... $200,000 to $500,000..... $500,000 to $1,000,000.. $1,000,000 and over........ Total, All Taxpayers....... CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES (3) Millions Percent $341 6.5% $6,257 (5) $7,987 25.4% $4,626 7.8% $4,070 4.2% $3,981 1.1% -$747 -0.2% -$3,918 -0.3% -$4,589 -0.4% -$1,817 -0.5% -$5,580 -0.7% $10,637 0.2% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PRESENT LAW Billions Percent $5.2 0.1% -$3.4 -0.1% $31.4 0.7% $59.4 1.3% $98.0 2.2% $352.2 7.9% $380.3 8.6% $1,302.4 29.3% $1,026.5 23.1% $345.7 7.8% $848.7 19.1% $4,446.4 100.0% FEDERAL TAXES (3) UNDER PROPOSAL Billions Percent $5.6 0.1% $2.8 0.1% $39.4 0.9% $64.0 1.4% $102.1 2.3% $356.2 8.0% $379.6 8.5% $1,298.5 29.1% $1,021.9 22.9% $343.9 7.7% $843.1 18.9% $4,457.0 100.0% Average Tax Rate (4) Present Law Proposal Percent Percent 4.7% 5.0% -0.8% 0.7% 4.1% 5.1% 7.6% 8.2% 11.0% 11.5% 14.5% 14.6% 16.3% 16.3% 20.7% 20.6% 26.6% 26.5% 30.8% 30.5% 32.1% 31.7% 20.5% 20.5% Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Detail may not add to total due to rounding. ----------------------------------------------------(1) This table is a distributional analysis of the proposal in revenue table JCX-57-17, excluding the following sections: I. Tax Reform for Individuals: D.4.-D.6., E., H.1.-H.14. Under section G., the distribution analysis does not include the effect on the cost-sharing reductions and Medicaid spending. (2) The income concept used to place tax returns into income categories is adjusted gross income (AGI) plus: [1] tax-exempt interest, [2] employer contributions for health plans and life insurance, [3] employer share of FICA tax, [4] worker's compensation, [5] nontaxable Social Security benefits, [6] insurance value of Medicare benefits, [7] alternative minimum tax preference items, [8] individual share of business taxes, and [9] excluded income of U.S. citizens living abroad. Categories are measured at 2017 levels. (3) Federal taxes are equal to individual income tax (including the outlay portion of refundable credits), employment tax (attributed to employees), excise taxes (attributed to consumers), and corporate income taxes. The estimates of Federal taxes are preliminary and subject to change. Individuals who are dependents of other taxpayers and taxpayers with negative income are excluded from the analysis. Does not include indirect effects. (4) The average tax rate is equal to Federal taxes described in footnote (3) divided by income described in footnote (2). (5) For returns in the $10,000 to $20,000 income category, Federal taxes would increase from -$3.415 billion to $2.843 billion. Page 5 JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE CHAIRMAN'S MARK OF THE "TAX CUTS AND JOBS ACT," SCHEDULED FOR MARKUP BY THE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE ON NOVEMBER 13, 2017 Distribution of Individual Income Tax Side of the Proposal CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES ($ millions) INCOME CATEGORY 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Less than $10,000............. -$103 $123 $191 $275 $424 $10,000 to $20,000............. -$366 $3,219 $3,633 $3,844 $6,494 $20,000 to $30,000............. -$1,074 $3,678 $3,362 $4,177 $8,527 $30,000 to $40,000............. -$3,568 -$598 $106 $399 $5,326 $40,000 to $50,000............. -$5,037 -$2,343 -$2,146 -$1,817 $5,057 $50,000 to $75,000............. -$17,857 -$15,199 -$14,922 -$14,524 $7,248 $75,000 to $100,000........... -$15,918 -$15,593 -$15,505 -$15,730 $2,910 $100,000 to $200,000.......... -$43,875 -$43,648 -$42,700 -$42,531 $9,065 $200,000 to $500,000.......... -$39,287 -$41,093 -$41,988 -$44,153 $5,984 $500,000 to $1,000,000....... -$15,760 -$16,154 -$16,122 -$16,483 $1,687 -$8,851 -$9,010 -$8,595 -$8,795 $1,270 -$151,698 -$136,620 -$134,653 -$125,575 $54,019 $1,000,000 and over............ Total, All Taxpayers.......... Distribution of Business Tax Side of the Proposal CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES ($ millions) INCOME CATEGORY 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Less than $10,000............. -$292 -$219 -$13 -$59 -$83 $10,000 to $20,000............. -$647 -$401 $93 -$112 -$237 $20,000 to $30,000............. -$787 -$687 -$197 -$398 -$540 $30,000 to $40,000............. -$1,047 -$944 -$363 -$562 -$701 $40,000 to $50,000............. -$1,335 -$1,303 -$555 -$804 -$987 $50,000 to $75,000............. -$4,563 -$4,473 -$2,075 -$2,803 -$3,267 $75,000 to $100,000........... -$5,564 -$5,330 -$2,456 -$3,195 -$3,658 $100,000 to $200,000.......... -$20,255 -$19,533 -$8,996 -$11,538 -$12,983 $200,000 to $500,000.......... -$20,090 -$18,499 -$7,404 -$9,652 -$10,573 $500,000 to $1,000,000....... -$8,993 -$7,730 -$2,393 -$3,316 -$3,505 $1,000,000 and over............ -$24,820 -$19,124 -$4,145 -$6,549 -$6,850 Total, All Taxpayers.......... -$88,392 -$78,244 -$28,503 -$38,988 -$43,382 Distribution of the Proposal CHANGE IN FEDERAL TAXES ($ millions) INCOME CATEGORY Less than $10,000............. 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 -$395 -$97 $178 $216 $341 $10,000 to $20,000............. -$1,013 $2,818 $3,726 $3,732 $6,257 $20,000 to $30,000............. -$1,861 $2,991 $3,165 $3,779 $7,987 $30,000 to $40,000............. -$4,615 -$1,542 -$257 -$163 $4,626 $40,000 to $50,000............. -$6,371 -$3,646 -$2,700 -$2,621 $4,070 $50,000 to $75,000............. -$22,420 -$19,672 -$16,998 -$17,327 $3,981 $75,000 to $100,000........... -$21,482 -$20,923 -$17,960 -$18,925 -$747 $100,000 to $200,000.......... -$64,130 -$63,181 -$51,695 -$54,069 -$3,918 $200,000 to $500,000.......... -$59,377 -$59,592 -$49,392 -$53,805 -$4,589 $500,000 to $1,000,000....... -$24,753 -$23,884 -$18,515 -$19,799 -$1,817 -$33,670 -$28,134 -$12,740 -$15,343 -$5,580 -$240,090 -$214,865 -$163,155 -$164,563 $10,637 $1,000,000 and over............ Total, All Taxpayers.......... Source: Joint Committee on Taxation Page 6 JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION November 16, 2017 JCX-58-17 NUMBER OF RETURNS BY INCOME CLASS NUMBER OF TAXPAYER UNITS (thousands) (1) INCOME CATEGORY (2) 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 Less than $10,000............................. 19,260 19,286 19,053 19,034 18,985 $10,000 to $20,000............................ 20,566 20,755 20,726 20,681 20,378 $20,000 to $30,000............................ 21,510 21,700 21,965 22,183 22,499 $30,000 to $40,000............................ 16,011 15,920 15,903 15,951 16,263 $40,000 to $50,000........................... 12,841 13,239 13,707 14,004 14,365 $50,000 to $75,000............................ 27,393 27,575 27,986 28,396 28,651 $75,000 to $100,000.......................... 17,835 18,190 18,670 19,033 19,489 $100,000 to $200,000......................... 30,667 31,169 31,869 32,622 33,332 $200,000 to $500,000......................... 9,152 9,431 9,542 9,765 9,923 $500,000 to $1,000,000...................... 1,147 1,180 1,186 1,206 1,215 $1,000,000 and over........................... 572 584 594 611 629 Total, All Taxpayers.......................... 176,955 179,029 181,201 183,485 185,726 Source: Joint Committee on Taxation (1) Includes nonfilers, excludes dependent filers and returns with negative income. (2) The income concept used to place tax returns into income categories is adjusted gross income (AGI) plus: [1] tax-exempt interest, [2] employer contributions for health plans and life insurance, [3] employer share of FICA tax, [4] worker's compensation, [5] nontaxable Social Security benefits, [6] insurance value of Medicare benefits, [7] alternative minimum tax preference items, [8] individual share of business taxes, and [9] excluded income of U.S. citizens living abroad. Categories are measured at 2017 levels. Page 7