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Chapter 23

23.  Southern Great Plains  
 
Coordinating Lead Author: 
 
Chapter Lead:   
 
 
Chapter Authors: 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Review Editor:   
 
 
USGCRP Coordinators:   
 
 
 
 
 

Bill Bartush, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 
Kevin Kloesel, University of Oklahoma 
Jay Banner, University of Texas at Austin 
David Brown, USDA-ARS Grazinglands Research Laboratory 
Xiaomao Lin, Kansas State University 
Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey 
Esther Mullens, DOI South Central Climate Science Center 
John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University 
Sid Sperry, Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives 
Daniel Wildcat, Haskell Indian Nations University 
Jay Lemory, University of Colorado 
Cecilia Sorenson, University of Colorado 
Jadwiga Ziolkowska, University of Oklahoma 
Mark Shafer, NOAA-RISA Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program 
Ellu Nasser, Adaptation International 
Susan Aragon-Long, Senior Scientist 
Christopher Avery, Senior Manager 
 

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Executive Summary 

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Key Messages 

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Key Message 1: The region’s growing population, the migration of individuals from rural to
urban locations, and climate change will increase and redistribute demand and result in
resource contention at the intersection of food consumption, energy production, and water
resources. This “nexus” is inextricably linked to quality of life, particularly in rural areas as
well as across both national and transnational borders.

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Key Message 2: Higher temperatures, extreme precipitation, and rising sea levels associated
with climate change make the built environment in the Southern Plains increasingly
vulnerable to disruption, particularly as infrastructure ages and populations shift to urban
centers. Coastal infrastructure remains particularly at risk as most climate projections
suggest sea level rise of up to four feet if emissions are not reduced.

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Key Message 3: Climate change affects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, influencing extreme
droughts, unprecedented floods, and wildfires that directly and indirectly alter ecosystems
and impact species. Some species adapt to changing climates, while others cannot, resulting
in significant impacts to both services and people living in these ecosystems.

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Key Message 4: Climate change will increase exposure to certain health threats, including
extreme heat and diseases transmitted through food, water, and insects. These health threats
may occur over longer periods of time, or at times of the year where these threats are not
normally experienced. Given the widespread changes expected in the Southern Great Plains,
health threats will be both varied and widespread.

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Key Message 5: Tribal nations and indigenous communities in the Southern Great Plains are
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including water resource impacts,
extreme weather events, higher temperatures, and other public health issues. Efforts to adapt
and build community resilience may be hindered by economic, political, and infrastructure
limitations. Traditional knowledge and intertribal organizations provide opportunities to
respond to the challenges of climate change.

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Summary Overview 

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The Southern Great Plains, composed of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, experiences weather that
is dramatic and consequential. Hurricanes, flooding, severe storms with large hail and tornadoes,
blizzards, ice storms, relentless winds, heat waves, and drought—its people and economies are
often at the mercy of some of the most diverse and variable weather hazards on the planet. These
events cause significant stress to existing infrastructure and socioeconomic systems and can
result in significant loss of life and the loss of billions of dollars in property. Understanding the
potential for future changes in the frequency and severity of these events and their impacts will
ultimately determine the sustainability of economies, cultures, ecosystems, health, and life in the
region.

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Climatic regimes in the Southern Great Plains vary dramatically from the arid, high-elevation
borders with the mountainous states of Colorado and New Mexico on the west, to the humid
states of Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana in the Mississippi River valley on the east. Average
annual precipitation ranges from less than 10 inches in the western reaches of the region to over
60 inches in the southeastern corner. A large west-to-east contrast in surface water availability
results, with large reservoirs in eastern parts of the region and few reservoirs in the west. Except
for the Platte River, Arkansas River, and upper Rio Grande, rivers in the region do not draw from
mountain snowpack and are sensitive to seasonal rainfall amounts. The region is vulnerable to
periods of drought, historically prevalent during the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 2011–2015, and
periods of abundant precipitation, particularly the 1980s and early 1990s. The region has
experienced an increase in annual average temperature of 1°–2°F since the early 20th century,
with the warming maximizing during the winter months.

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With the Gulf of Mexico to its southeast, parts of the Southern Great Plains are vulnerable to
hurricanes and sea level rise. Relative sea level rise along the Texas Gulf Coast is twice as large
as the global average, and an extreme storm surge in Galveston Bay would threaten much of the
U.S. petroleum and natural gas refining capacity. Variations in freshwater flows and evaporation
affect the salinity of bays and estuaries along the coast, and have the potential to alter coastal
ecosystems and affect the fishing industry. Tropical cyclones are also responsible for exceptional
rainfall rates in the region. The U.S. record for greatest 24-hour rainfall is 43 inches, set in Alvin,
Texas in July of 1979. Houston, Texas in particular experienced several record-breaking floods
in 2015, 2016 and 2017, with Hurricane Harvey rewriting the U.S. rainfall record book for
tropical cyclones. Cedar Bayou, Texas, 30 miles from Houston recorded 51.88 inches of rain
during Hurricane Harvey, breaking the contiguous-US rainfall record in a tropical cyclone of 48
inches.

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Figure 

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Title: Climate Winners and Losers (Gray Snapper and Southern Flounder 

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Figure 23.2: Trends in annual abundance of gray snapper (bottom) and southern flounder (top). 
As water temperatures increase along the Texas Gulf Coast, gray snapper are expanding 
northward along the Texas coast, while popular southern flounder are becoming less abundant, 
impacting recreational and commercial fishing industry. Source: Texas Parks and Wildlife 
Department Coastal Fisheries Resource Monitoring Data. 
 

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Background  

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The Southern Great Plains, composed of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, experiences weather that
is dramatic and consequential. Hurricanes, flooding, severe storms with large hail and tornadoes,
blizzards, ice storms, relentless winds, heat waves, and drought—its people and economies are
often at the mercy of some of the most diverse and variable weather hazards on the planet. These
events cause significant stress to existing infrastructure and socioeconomic systems, and can
result in significant loss of life and the loss of billions of dollars in property. Understanding the
potential for future changes in the frequency and severity of these events and their impacts will
ultimately determine the sustainability of economies, cultures, ecosystems, health, and life in the
region.

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Climatic regimes in the Southern Great Plains vary dramatically from the arid, high-elevation
borders with the mountainous states of Colorado and New Mexico on the west, to the humid
states of Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana in the Mississippi River valley on the east. Average
annual precipitation ranges from less than 10 inches in the western reaches of the region to over
60 inches in the southeastern corner. A large west-to-east contrast in surface water availability
results, with large reservoirs in eastern parts of the region and few reservoirs in the west. Except
for the Platte River, Arkansas River, and upper Rio Grande, rivers in the region do not draw from
mountain snowpack and are sensitive to seasonal rainfall amounts. The region is vulnerable to
periods of drought, historically prevalent during the 1910s, 1930s, 1950s, and 2011–2015, and
periods of abundant precipitation, particularly the 1980s and early 1990s. The region has
experienced an increase in annual average temperature of 1°–2°F since the early 20th century,
with the warming maximizing during the winter months.

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With the Gulf of Mexico to its southeast, parts of the Southern Great Plains are vulnerable to
hurricanes and sea level rise. Relative sea level rise along the Texas Gulf Coast is twice as large
as the global average, and an extreme storm surge in Galveston Bay would threaten much of the
U.S. petroleum and natural gas refining capacity. Variations in freshwater flows and evaporation
affect the salinity of bays and estuaries along the coast, and have the potential to alter coastal
ecosystems and affect the fishing industry. Tropical cyclones are also responsible for exceptional
rainfall rates in the region. The U.S. record for greatest 24-hour rainfall is 43 inches, set in Alvin,
Texas in July of 1979. Houston, Texas in particular experienced several record-breaking floods
in 2015, 2016 and 2017, with Hurricane Harvey rewriting the U.S. rainfall record book for
tropical cyclones. Cedar Bayou, Texas, 30 miles from Houston recorded 51.88 inches of rain
during Hurricane Harvey, breaking the contiguous U.S. rainfall record in a tropical cyclone of 48
inches.

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BOX 23.1: Hurricane Harvey 

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Hurricane Harvey was a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it made landfall
on the central Texas coast (near Rockport) late in the evening of August 25, 2017. After making
landfall, the storm moved inland, stalled, and eventually moved back over the coastal Gulf of
Mexico waters before making landfall a final time as a tropical storm several days later in
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southwestern Louisiana.

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Widespread flooding affected dozens of communities, including those in the Houston and
Beaumont metropolitan areas. The immediate effects included deaths from drowning and trauma
that claimed the lives of at least 63 individuals. Additionally, over 30,000 individuals were
evacuated. The dispersal of patients from their communities and health providers lead to
interruptions in medical treatment. Texas has one of the lowest rates of health insurance in the
country and over 11% of the population of Texas is diabetic (TDSHS, 2017a). Additionally,
chronic kidney disease rates in Texas are higher than the national average with a prevalence of
over 17% in the adult population, and 1,524 per million inhabitants require routine dialysis
(TDSHS, 2017b). In the aftermath of the hurricane, dialysis centers struggled with staffing
shortages and centers in outlying areas worked around the clock to attempt to meet the needs of
evacuated patients (Newkirk, 2017). Additionally, hospitals and pharmacies faced critical
shortages of essential medications (including insulin and respiratory inhalers) secondary to the
inability of suppliers to make deliveries. Hospitals faced critical power shortages and loss of
indoor air and temperature controls. At least 15 area hospitals evacuated their patients (Fink and
Blinder, 2017).

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Preliminary damage estimates place Harvey as one of the two most costly U.S. natural disasters
in inflation-adjusted dollars, rivaling Hurricane Katrina. Overall rainfall totals across
southeastern Texas may have exceeded those of any known historical storm anywhere in the
continental United States. Flooding from Harvey resulted in the overflow of sewage systems and
breaches at numerous waste treatment facilities (Kaplan and Healy, 2017), resulting in untreated
infectious human waste entering surface waters and resulting in a spike in skin and
gastrointestinal infections (Astor, 2017).

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No studies have specifically examined whether the likelihood of hurricanes stalling near land is
affected by climate change. Projected trends in the mean steering flow over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico are weak and not robust across models (Colbert et al. 2013). More general research on
weather patterns and climate change suggests competing influences (Brewer and Mass 2016;
Lucas et al. 2014; Mann et al. 2017; Tang et al. 2014). Weather patterns related to the jet stream
may be more likely to become locked in place, possibly including the mid-tropospheric wind
pattern that resulted in Harvey stalling along the Texas coast, while at the same time climate is
causing the jet stream to move farther from the tropics, which would make it less likely for a
storm such as Harvey to have its motion affected by the jet stream.

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The ability of Harvey to continue to draw tropical moisture northward is related to its intensity
and size at landfall. Research suggests that intense hurricanes will become more frequent in a
warmer climate, although such storms are so rare that such a trend, if already present, would not
clearly be detectable in the existing climate record.

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Multiple lines of evidence, including observations, model simulations, and basic
thermodynamics, indicate that the intensity of heavy rain is increasing in Texas and elsewhere in
the United States, including heavy rain produced by tropical cyclones. This intensity increase is
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closely related to increases in sea surface and atmospheric temperatures that allow more water
vapor to be present in the atmosphere. Based on past trends and recent sea surface temperatures,
the heaviest rainfall amounts from intense storms such as Harvey are about 5%–7% greater now
than what they would have been a century ago (USGCRP, 2017).

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END BOX 

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Across the region, significant flooding and rainfall events followed drought in approximately
one-third of the drought-affected periods in the region (Christian et al. 2015). Understanding this
rapid swing from extreme drought to flood is an important and ongoing research question in the
region. As major metropolitan areas in the region continue their rapid population growth, overall
exposure to extreme rainfall events will increase. Yet, even while record breaking flooding
events increased over the past 30 years, the Southern Great Plains experienced an overall
decrease in flood frequency (Hoerling et al 2013), possibly related to the decrease in total
precipitation over the same period.

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The Southern Great Plains is a critical thoroughfare for rail and road freight, supports numerous
ocean and river ports within its borders, and is a major energy producer and exporter (USEIA,
2015). Combined, the three-state region accounts for 25% of all U.S. energy production. The
world’s largest oil-storage tank facility is located in Cushing, Oklahoma, with 13% of total U.S.
storage and a convergence of several major pipelines. Over 550,000 miles of roads connect rural
and urban communities, and serve as vital infrastructure supporting state and local economies
(USCB 2016, USDOT 2017, OHSO 2017). The vast and dispersed nature of the region’s
infrastructure makes investment in maintenance and rehabilitation of deficient and aging
infrastructure difficult. Since infrastructure is in part designed based on the local climate and is
perennially exposed to the environment, climate-related stressors such as extreme heat, drought,
and flooding, along with severe local storms, have caused adverse and costly impacts to the
region historically, and climate change is projected to increase the frequency of heatwaves,
extreme precipitation, drought, and sea level rise. Existing vulnerabilities and limited adaptive
capacity compounds the impacts of climate change. The Southern Great Plains ranks near the top
of states with structurally deficient or functionally obsolete bridges, while others are nearing the
end of their design life (ASCE-OK 2013, ASCE-KS 2013, ASCE-TX 2012). Road surface
degradation in Texas urban centers is linked to an extra $5.7 billion in vehicle operating costs
annually (TXDOT 2014). The region has tens of thousands of dams and levees; however, many
are not subject to regular inspection and maintenance, and have an average age exceeding 40
years (ASCE-OK 2013, ASCE-KS 2013 ASCE-TX 2012). Most state and local budgets are
unable to meet the funding needs for infrastructure improvements, particularly in rural towns
where funding is largely derived from municipal revenue. In urban centers, population growth is
anticipated to require expansion of transportation infrastructure and services and revisions to
flood control structures and policies (ASCE-OK 2013, ASCE-KS 2013 ASCE-TX 2012) and
result in increased water resource needs and a growth in building demand (Vision North Texas
2010, Combs 2012).

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Projections 

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Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in both average temperatures and frequency,
duration, and intensity of extreme heat events, but with a reduction in extreme cold events.
Annual average temperatures in the Southern Great Plains are projected to increase by 3.6°–
5.1°F by the mid-21st century and by 4.4°–8.4°F by the late 21st century, compared to the
average for 1976–2005, and dependent on emissions pathway, with higher emissions leading to
greater and faster temperature increases. Extreme heat will become more common. Temperatures
similar to the summer of 2011 will become increasingly likely to recur, particularly with higher
emissions. By late in the 21st century, the region may experience an additional 30–60 days per
year above 100°F than it does now (USGCRP 2017).

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The role of climate change in extreme weather trends, such as severe local storms, tropical
storms and hurricanes, ice storms, and tornadoes, remains difficult to determine based on the
current science. Indirect approaches suggest a possible increase in the circumstances conducive
to such severe weather, but the evidence is far from conclusive and changes are unlikely to be
uniform across the region (Brooks, 2013).

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Along the Texas coastline, sea levels have risen 5–17 inches over the last 100 years, depending
on local topography and subsidence (Runkle et al. 2017). Sea level rise along the western Gulf of
Mexico during the remainder of the 21st century is likely to be greater than the projected global
average of 1–4 feet or more (USGCRP 2017).

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Annual average precipitation projections suggest generally small changes in the region, with
slightly wetter winters, particularly in the north of the region, and drier summers (USGCRP
2017). However, the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation is anticipated to continue to
increase, particularly with higher emissions and later in the century (USGCRP 2017). The
expected increase of precipitation intensity implies fewer soaking rains and more time to dry out
between events. Studies that have attempted to simulate the consequences of future precipitation
patterns consistently project less future soil moisture, with future conditions possibly drier than
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While past hydrologic extremes have been driven largely by climate variability, climate change
is likely to exacerbate the frequency, duration, and intensity of drought in the Southern Great
Plains, largely associated with drying soils due to increased evapotranspiration caused by higher
temperatures (USCGRP 2017).

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Key Message 1: Food, Energy, and Water Resources 

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Key Message 1: The region’s growing population, the migration of individuals from rural to
urban locations, and climate change will increase and redistribute demand and result in
resource contention at the intersection of food consumption, energy production, and water
resources. This “nexus” is inextricably linked to quality of life, particularly in rural areas as
well as across both national and transnational borders.

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Food, energy, and water systems are inseparable. Any change in demand for one will impact
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demand on the other two. The quality of life of the 34 million people residing in the Southern
Great Plains is dependent upon the resources and natural systems for the sustainable provision of
food, energy, and water. At least 60% of the region’s population is clustered around urban
centers, which are experiencing population growth outstripping those of rural communities,
where population is generally stable or declining. The remaining population is spread across vast
areas of rural land (USCB 2016, Potter and Hoque 2014, KSA50 2016, Hayden 2011, OKDC
2012). As the population in the region grows, rapid urbanization and economic development
opportunities will drive an increase in the demand for food, energy, and water. Water is used in
every aspect of agricultural production and electricity generation. Energy is required to extract
and deliver water of sufficient quality for diverse human and agricultural use, as well as healthy
consumption and wastewater treatment. Both water and energy are required to irrigate and
process agricultural products and livestock to feed the region’s increasing population. The
complex interdependencies at the food, energy, and water “nexus” create enormous challenges.

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When severe drought affected the Southern Great Plains in 2011, limited water availability
constrained the operation of some power plants and other energy production activities.
Contention for water developed between consumers associated with the food, energy, and water
nexus. The recent boom in domestic unconventional oil and gas development brought on by
hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling represents another stressor to this nexus. This
development has added complexity to the regional dialogue about the relationship between food,
energy, and water resources.

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Superimposed on the existing complexities at the food, energy, and water nexus is the specter of
climate change. During 2012–2015, the multiyear regional drought resulted in no irrigation water
for the Texas Rice Belt farmers on the Texas coastal plains. The reduced quantity of available
water along the Colorado River basin had to be rationed among multiple stakeholders and uses,
including the municipal and recreational needs for the City of Austin; the coastal plain rice
farmers requiring it for irrigation to support their livelihoods; the need to replenish cooling
reservoirs for the South Texas Project’s two nuclear reactors that supply power to two million
households in Austin, Dallas and San Antonio; and the Fayette Power Project coal plant that
supplies power to 320,000 homes in the Austin area. In one year, planted acres of rice in
Matagorda County, Texas, dropped from 22,000 acres to 2,100 acres (Badour 2014). The ripple
effect on the local economy was severe, with a 70% decline in sales of farm implements and
machinery. Some family-owned establishments that had survived for decades closed
permanently (Baddour 2014). Irrigation strategies shifted from river-based to pumping water
from the Gulf Coast Aquifer, and dozens of new wells were drilled. Drilling water wells then
resulted in declining groundwater levels, adding stress to water levels that had historically been
falling in the region (Chaudhuri and Ale 2014). Some farmers were forced to make the difficult
transition to other crops such as corn. When flooding rains inundated the region in 2016, 15% of
the corn crop in the region was swept away in flood waters (Hawkes 2016).

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Climate change has significant negative impacts on agriculture in the United States, causing

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substantial economic costs (Backlund et al 2008). The effects of drought and other occurrences
of extreme weather outside the Southern Great Plains also affects the food–energy–water nexus
in the region. The neighboring Southwest region is especially vulnerable to climate change due
its rapidly increasing population, changing land use and land cover, limited water supplies, and
long-term drought (Garfin et al 2013). States in the Southern Great Plains import over 20% of
their food-related items from Arizona, and El Paso, Texas, receives 25% percent of consumable
foods (mostly vegetables) and 18% of its animal feed supplies from Arizona (Berardy and
Chester 2017). In addition, relationships across the border of the Southern Great Plains with
Mexico will be critical to a better understanding of the food–energy–water nexus (See Case
Study: Rio Grande Valley and Trans Border).

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BOX 23.2: Case Study: Rio Grande Valley and Trans Border Issues 

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In the U.S.–Mexico transboundary region of the Southern Great Plains, no hydrologic resource is
more critical than the Rio Grande River and its attendant tributaries. Partnered, bi-national
management of the basin’s water supply is essential to supporting the agricultural, industrial, and
community infrastructure in place along the Rio Grande valley. Proactive and collaborative
water management strategies allow for effective flood control, mitigation of drought impacts,
and maximization of water quality, among other benefits (Garrick 2016).

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The Rio Grande is highly sensitive to variations and changes in the climate of the Southern Great
Plains, where changes can have marked impacts on the valley’s extensive agricultural
productivity (Steiner et al 2017). Increasing regional temperatures (Kunkel 2013) consistent with
global trends will enhance the severity of drought impacts via the acceleration of surface water
loss driven by evaporation, particularly in large Rio Grande reservoirs such as Lake Amistad.
The impacts of extreme high temperatures during drought conditions were evidenced in Texas
during the historic 2011 drought (Hoerling et al 2013). Changes in regional precipitation
patterns, including observed increases in extreme rainfall events as part of a regional “dipole”
dry-wet-dry again pattern (Christian et al 2015), will affect both drought and flood occurrence
and intensity along the Rio Grande channel. Other climate-driven impacts, such as changes in
wildfire frequency (Muth et al 2017) and increased vulnerability to heat events (Garfin et al.
2013) will further challenge the preparedness and resiliency of communities on both sides of the
border.

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A growing number of adaptation strategies (Nava et al 2016) and an increasing provision of
regional climate services in the Southern Great Plains (Shafer et al 2011) bode well for an
improved future ability to effectively manage the Rio Grande’s trans-boundary water interests.
Frequently, extreme weather and climate events, such as the 2011–2012 La Niña and 2015–2016
El Niño episodes, serve as catalyzing opportunities to develop new and refine existing
information delivery pathways from climate services providers to stakeholder audiences. Recent
examples in the Rio Grande trans-boundary region include seasonal climate outlooks and impact
assessments (Shafer et al 2014), drought and wildfire outlooks (Muth et al 2017), and aquifer
assessments (Alley 2013). The delivery of regional climate services is being more rigorously

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evaluated (Eastwood et al submitted) and many resources are now available bilingually (Steiner
2015b).

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Title: CLIMAS Spanish and English Language Pages 

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Figure 23.1: Spanish and English language versions of the May 2017 Climate Assessment for the 
Southwest (CLIMAS) Rio Grande-Bravo Climate Impacts and Outlook “At A Glance” summary. 
http://www.climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/RGBO_May_2017_Final.pdf.  

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END BOX 

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The 2017 Texas State Water Plan (TWDB 2017) indicates that the growing Texas population
will result in a 17% increase in water demand in the state over the next 50 years. This increase is
projected to be primarily associated with municipal use, manufacturing, and power generation,
owing to the projections of population increase in the region. Likewise, water use projections in
Oklahoma are expected to increase by 21% for municipal use, 22% for agricultural use, and 63%
for energy use (OWRB 2012). A preliminary assessment of projected water demand in Kansas
also shows an increase of 20%, but with the expected variability depending upon rural versus
urban areas (KWO 2014). Throughout much of western Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the
Texas Panhandle, groundwater from the Ogallala Aquifer is the dominant water source (ASCEKS 2013, Winter and Foster 2014), benefitting the agricultural sector in particular. This resource
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is known to be shrinking faster than it is replenishing, and some portions are likely to become an
insufficient source or become completely depleted within the next 25 years, particularly at its
southernmost extent (ASCE 2013). Drought more persistent than that experienced in the region’s
recent history would trigger large social and economic consequences, including shifting
agriculture, migration, rising commodity prices, and rising utility costs (Combs 2012).

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The importance of groundwater as a resource will increase under climate change as the
intensification of hydrologic extremes decreases the reliability of precipitation, soil moisture, and
surface water, and as surface water supplies are becoming increasingly over-allocated (Taylor et
al 2013, Castle et al 2014, Green et al 2011).

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BOX 23.3: Case Study: Edwards Aquifer  

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The Edwards aquifer is a limestone aquifer that provides groundwater to the central Texas
region. It serves more than two million people, including the cities of San Antonio, San Marcos,
and Austin, which are three of the fastest growing cities in the country (USCB 2015). The
aquifer is a source of water for drinking, industry, agriculture, livestock, and recreation. It is also
a habitat for a number of endemic and endangered species.

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The Edwards aquifer is particularly sensitive to climate change. It fills and drains quickly and its
shallow depth enhances the responsiveness to droughts and floods. This high susceptibility and
exposure to climate change is a major challenge for managing the Edwards aquifer as a resource
(Wong et al 2012). The probable impacts of climate change for the Edwards aquifer include a
decrease of water supply during droughts, a degradation of habitat for species of concern,
economic effects, and the interconnectivity of these impacts.

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Water availability and demand. The population of Texas will grow by more than 70% between
2020 and 2070, with the majority of the increase projected to occur in urban centers (TWDB
2017). Increased demand for water will come from municipal, power generation, agriculture,
manufacturing, and livestock uses (TWDB 2017). Over this same time period, water availability
in the U.S. Southwest is projected to decrease due to a shift to a more drought-prone climate
state (Cook et al 2015, Banner et al 2010). History shows that population growth during the
drought of the 1950s led to unsustainable use of water from the Edwards aquifer (Sharp and
Banner 1997) The lessons learned from the 1950s and the more intense 2011 drought provide a
particularly well-suited test for models of how the aquifer and associated ecosystems will
respond to projected climate change (NAS 2017).

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Habitat. Plants and animals are sensitive to a variety of changes related to the Edwards aquifer
groundwater system, including changes in habitat, water levels, spring flows, and water quality.
An example of the latter is an analysis of dissolved oxygen concentrations (DO) in water in
Barton Springs, a major point of discharge from the Edwards aquifer. Most notable is the Barton
Springs salamander (Eurycea sorosum), a federally listed endangered species native to these
springs. Data on DO levels at the springs indicate that low DO episodes that correspond to
salamander mortality could result from 1) lower discharge from the springs resulting from

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increased water withdrawals or decreased recharge as a result of drought, and/or 2) increased
water temperature as a result of climate change (Mahler and Bourgeais 2013). A key challenge is
understanding and modeling the extent to which endangered and native species can be protected
in their habitats associated with the aquifer (NAS 2017, Mahler et al 2014, Stamm et al 2015).

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Impacts. Dramatic drawdowns of groundwater levels by human activity combined with climate
change in many regions illustrate the challenges of their non-renewable nature and the multiple
dependencies of some ecosystems and agricultural systems on groundwater (Klove et al 2013).
Multiple, integrated solutions will be needed to address the impacts on the Edwards aquifer.
These will necessarily involve ways to increase supply, through technological approaches such
as desalination of brackish groundwater and aquifer storage and recovery, and ways to decrease
demand, such as conservation and regulation.

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END BOX 

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Research into the intersection, or “nexus” of food, energy, and water is in its early stages, and
historically tends to examine only one or two components (Bazilian et al 2011, Beck and
Villarroel-Walker 2013, Hellegers et al 2008, Hussey and Pittock 2012, Ringler et al 2013,
Villarroel-Walker et al 2014, Zhang 2013). It is clear that tradeoffs and cascading complexities
exist between sectors, and changes in one sector are likely to propagate through the entire
system. There are significant gaps in the scientific understanding regarding the role climate
change will play as a disruptive force and a threat to food, energy, and water security (Beck and
Villarroel-Walker 2013, Ringler et al 2013, Giupponi and Gain 2016, Godfray et al 2010, Yang
et al 2016).

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Key Message 2: Infrastructure 

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Key Message 2: Higher temperatures, extreme precipitation, and rising sea levels associated
with climate change make the built environment in the Southern Plains increasingly
vulnerable to disruption, particularly as infrastructure ages and populations shift to urban
centers. Coastal infrastructure remains particularly at risk as most climate projections
suggest sea level rise of up to four feet if emissions are not reduced.

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Climate change is anticipated to lead to year-round higher average temperature and an increase
in the frequency of very hot days (days with maximum temperatures above 100°F), with the
number of such days possibly doubling by the mid-21st Century (USGCRP 2017). An increase
in temperatures is virtually certain for the Southern Great Plains. Longer and more intense
summers will place strain on cooling systems and energy utilities, road surfaces, and water
resources, particularly during drought, although warmer winters are likely to reduce heating
demands and winter road maintenance costs. The rate of temperature rise may be especially large
within urban centers due to possible intensification of the urban heat island (UHI) effect,
although the degree of heating likely varies by city and it is difficult to obtain precise
quantitative estimates. During excessive heat in July 2011, Dallas experienced late-evening
temperatures 6.1°F higher in the downtown urban canopy, versus downstream 36 miles away

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(Winguth and Kelp 2013). Population growth, increased urban density, and expansion will
intensify the UHI for many Southern Great Plains cities, necessitating more energy use for
cooling. This in turn can further enhance the UHI, and strains energy utilities (Estrada et al
2017). If prolonged power failure occurs during high heat conditions, the future impact to human
health and comfort may be notably more detrimental in a warmer climate (Sailor 2014).

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Increased frequency of drought is also projected for the Southern Great Plains with climate
change, due to enhanced evapotranspiration and depleted soil moisture associated with increased
temperatures (USGCRP 2017). During past drought, surface water availability (for example, in
reservoirs) decreased, and groundwater use increased, in some cases requiring new pipelines or
importing of water (Combs 2012). Compounding infrastructure challenges for the region include
aging and over-capacity water pipelines (OWRB 2011). The Texas Water Development Board
(TWDB 2012) suggests that by 2060, municipal water use will increase to 41% of available
supply (versus 9% in 2010), based on projected population growth and that if a record drought,
based only on recorded historical conditions, occurred in 2060, many areas of the state, and as
much as half of the state’s population, could face less water availability. Additionally, water
infrastructure can be damaged by drought. During summer 2011, water main breaks were
common, with 200 breaks in Fort Worth, Texas, in one month and over 1,000 in one month in
Houston, Texas (Combs 2012), associated with shrinkage of clay soil, a common soil type
throughout the Southern Great Plains. Soil shrinkage can damage both surface and subsurface
infrastructure, including roads, water and sewer lines, and building foundations. Periods of
abundant precipitation followed by drought and high temperatures are also linked to increased
wildfire activity in the region (Scasta et al 2016). Texas experienced several major wildfire
outbreaks during the drought of 2011, including the Bastrop fire that destroyed more than 1,500
homes. More recently in 2016 and 2017, fires in Kansas and Oklahoma have exceeded 400,000
acres and were among the largest in the region’s history. These events killed thousands of cattle,
contributed to several fatalities, and damaged, displaced, or isolated rural communities
(Hutchinson Post 2017). Wildfire risk may increase with climate change throughout the region,
associated with higher temperatures, particularly in the summer, and an increase in duration of
the fire season (Gan and Cho 2015).

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Following the abrupt cessation of persistent drought in 2015, the region suffered extensive
damage associated with river and flash flooding (Christian et al 2015, Erdman 2016, Wolter et al
2015). Precipitation totals for a 120-day period during the spring of 2015 in south-central
Oklahoma were above 40 inches, approximately the average annual amount in many locations
(Oklahoma Mesonet 2015, Chickasaw Nation 2015), largely associated with multiple episodes of
very heavy rain. Numerous state and U.S highways experienced regional detours or closures
(Chickasaw Nation 2015). A rockslide on Interstate Highway 35 closed portions of the road for
several weeks (Chickasaw Nation 2015, NCEI 2015). Flooding in Oklahoma and Texas caused
an estimated $2.6 billion in damage (NCEI 2015), with $1 million in emergency relief funds
provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration to assist
repair of damaged roads (ODOT 2015). The increasing frequency of extreme precipitation that is
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projected by climate models is anticipated to contribute to further vulnerability of existing
highway infrastructure, although the magnitude and timing of projected precipitation extremes
remain uncertain (USGCRP 2017).

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Changing precipitation frequency and increases in the magnitude and frequency of heavy
precipitation will place more stress on existing water resource infrastructure. The region has a
large number of older dams and levees—Texas is ranked first in the Nation for the number of
dams, and Oklahoma is ranked fourth (ASCE-OK 2013, ASCE-TX, 2012). The American
Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) has assigned dams and levees poor grades (ASCE 2013,
ASCE-KS 2013, ASCE-TX 2012). Between 1982 and 2012, 82 dams failed in Texas, and during
2015 the high-hazard Lewisville dam was of concern due to observed seepage (ASCE-TX 2012,
Getschow 2015). Climate change is likely to shift the frequency distribution of rare events, such
as 100-year floods, to become more common (USGCRP 2017). Future extremes may exacerbate
flooding and wear and tear on existing flood control infrastructure and could necessitate
revisions to design standards for flood infrastructure and a reevaluation of floodplains.
Floodplain management and mitigation of flooding is currently left largely to local governments
and cities, and is thus reliant on local funding and resources for successful implementation
(ASCE 2013, ASCE-KS 2013, ASCE-TX 2012). While there are clear implications of more
variable and extreme precipitation on infrastructure, the precise links between specific events
and their resulting damage is uncertain as most infrastructure is exposed to both climatic and
non-climatic stressors whose effects are difficult to separate without a high degree of monitoring.

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As the energy industry undergoes, to some extent, a reinvention, it is taking climate and extreme
weather events into consideration in design, operations, and reliability. An Edison Electric
Institute study estimated that by 2030, the U.S. electric utility industry will need to make a total
infrastructure investment of between $1.5 trillion and $2.0 trillion, of which transmission and
distribution investment is expected to account for about $900 billion (Edison 2008). These
investments increasingly include renewable energy and distributed generation, smart grid
technologies, and storage. From 2008 to 2013, the amount of electricity generated from wind has
more than tripled and the amount from solar has increased by more than tenfold (EIA 2015).
These enhancements would need to be reliable (able to operate within limits so that instability,
uncontrolled events, or cascading failures do not result if there is a disturbance), resilient (able to
adapt to changing conditions and withstand and rapidly recover from disruptions), safe, flexible
and affordable.

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Coastal regions are among the most vulnerable to climate change due to the scale and certainty
of substantial sea level rise without reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Within Texas alone,
1,000 square miles of land is within 5 feet of the high tide line, including $9.6 billion in current
assessed property value and homes to about 45,000 people. Sensitive assets include 1,600 miles
of roadway, several hospitals, schools, 4 power plants, and 254 EPA-listed contamination sites
(hazardous waste and sewage) (Strauss et al 2014). The coastline in the vicinity of Galveston and
Texas City is also a critical oil refining and transport hub. Sea level rise of at least two feet

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would affect numerous coastal assets, including residential communities, roads, waterways, and
energy generation facilities, and move the risk of damaging storm surge well inland of present
areas of impact, exposing cities such as Galveston and Corpus Christi to more frequent flooding
(Strauss et al. 2014, Carlson et al. 2016, Murdock and Brenner 2016, Bradbury et al. 2015).
Disruption to coastal oil-refining facilities can cause cascading failures throughout the region,
including fuel shortages and higher prices. Up to $20.9 billion in coastal property may be
flooded at high tide by 2030, and by 2050 property values below the high-water mark may be in
excess of $30 billion (RB Project Report 2015). Saltwater intrusion of aquifers has been
observed in the Gulf Coast Aquifer, the second most utilized aquifer in Texas that supports eight
million people. Although this was in part associated with heavy pumping (Mace et al 2006), the
Gulf Coast Aquifer remains vulnerable to further saltwater intrusion resulting from sea level rise,
and storm surge exacerbated by climate change (Anderson and Al-Thani 2016).

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Due to the historical frequency of drought, water conservation activities are already recognized
as important and encouraged in many municipalities. Common strategies include rainwater
harvesting, encouraging improved residential water-use efficiency, water audits, and restricted
water use in times of drought (Combs 2012). Other proactive measures currently in place in
some communities aim to mitigate longer-term risks and involve wastewater treatment and reuse,
aquifer storage and recovery, and desalinization (Combs 2012) (see Case Study: El Paso
Desalinization).

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BOX 23.4: Case Study: El Paso Desalinization 

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El Paso, Texas, is vulnerable to drought, being situated in the Chihuahua desert with a growing
population and with limited water resources derived largely from the Rio Grande river and
regional aquifers. The city is part of the Rockefeller Foundation’s 100 resilient cities initiative.
Prior to, and as part of, El Paso’s climate adaptation planning, the city’s water utility program
implemented programs on water conservation, reclamation, and supply diversification. In 2007,
the city completed construction of a 27.5 million-gallon-per-day desalinization plant. The
desalinization is applied to brackish waters, which is less intensive than applying desalinization
to ocean water. The plant is designed with excess capacity to meet the needs of the city in times
of drought. The plant was found to be more cost effective in the long term compared with
importing water from remote sources. A climate change analysis of the future viability of this
infrastructure suggested that it could meet the needs of the city through the next 50 years (Vogel
and Juliana 2016).

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END BOX 

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Climate change is likely to require modification and updating of design standards in order to
accommodate changes in risk for which historical data cannot fully account. For example, in
transportation design, these modifications may include changing the minimum and maximum
temperature rating for binders used in asphalt roads to improve durability; structural
modifications to bridges to meet the demands of higher summer temperatures; updating the data
used for calculating flooding of dams and neighborhoods; restricting rail speeds during hot
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temperatures; and shifting timing of maintenance activities. Many technological solutions exist
or are in development to build resiliency to these climate-related challenges. However, the
aforementioned stressors and budgetary challenges will continue to present notable challenges to
adaptive capacity in the Southern Great Plains.

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Many studies have documented economic impacts of climate change on different sectors in the
United States and worldwide (Adams et al. 1989, Deschenes and Greenstone 2007, Stern 2007,
Mendelsohn and Neumann 2004, Tol 2002). For example, predictive analyses estimate that
climate change and coastal development will cause hurricane damage to increase faster than the
U.S. economy is expected to grow. The number of people facing substantial expected damage
will, on average, increase more than eightfold over the next 60 years (Dinan 2017). However,
economic analyses for specific regions, sectors, and states in the Southern Great Plains are still
limited. Moreover, holistic methodology is missing to evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of
climate change at a larger regional scale due to varying geographic, meteorological, and
hydrological conditions in each of the Southern Great Plains states/regions.

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The role of economics is increasingly recognized as being critical for advancing the resilience of
households, businesses, and local governments, and also for the broader economic adaptation of
entire regions. Establishing economic resilience in a local business or a regional economy
requires the ability to anticipate risk, evaluate how that risk can impact key economic assets, and
build a responsive adaptive capacity. At the regional or community level, economic development
practitioners can build capacity for economic resilience.

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Key Message 3: Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services 

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Key Message 3: Climate change affects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, influencing extreme
droughts, unprecedented floods, and wildfires that directly and indirectly alter ecosystems
and impact species. Some species adapt to changing climates, while others cannot, resulting
in significant impacts to both services and people living in these ecosystems.

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The Southern Great Plains encompasses diverse ecoregions stretching from the High Plains to
the Edwards Plateau and the Tamaulipan Brushlands to the Gulf Coast Prairie (Omernik 2014).
The region is prone to periods of drought punctuated by heavy rainfall events, with evidence that
these events are occurring more frequently (Christian, Christian and Basara, 2015). These
precipitation patterns influence water availability and aquatic habitats such as lakes, rivers,
springs, and streams. Freshwater inflows from rivers flowing to coastal estuaries provide
important nutrients and sediments while moderating salinities to create and maintain productive
estuarine ecosystems.

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Climate Change Impacts to Species 

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Climate plays a key role in the distribution of species. Species’ response to climate change is
complex and variable (Staudinger 2013). As temperatures increase, the geographic distribution
of some species tends to shift to adapt to thermal tolerance ranges. Rising temperatures are also
causing changes to growing seasons and migration patterns of birds and butterflies (NFWPCAP

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2012). In Texas, white-wing dove, originally confined to the Lower Rio Grande Valley, have
been expanding northward (Butcher 2014) and are now common across Oklahoma. However,
other factors including habitat loss also influence species distributions, making it difficult to
pinpoint specific causes for the distribution change.

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It is unclear how climate change will affect species directly, but the effects of increased drought
will likely have negative impacts. In addition, ecosystem services—the materials and processes
that ecosystems produce that benefit people—will also be affected (NFWPCAP 2012). In
general, drought forces wildlife to travel farther to locate food, water, and shelter, which can
deplete body condition going into winter or spring migration when food sources are typically
scarcer, making them more vulnerable to other stresses. The highly endangered Houston toad
was negatively impacted during the 2011 drought and devastating wildfire in Bastrop County,
Texas. Whooping crane numbers, which depend on sufficient freshwater inflows for a reliable
food source (primarily blue crabs), were also reduced. In addition, a lack of freshwater can force
whooping cranes to fly to uplands to drink, using more energy and exposing birds to more threats
from predators and other mortality factors.

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Drought exacerbates stress in highly isolated habitats and fragmented lands, diminishing the
ability for species to persist if they cannot move to better conditions. Migratory birds are better
able to move to areas with better habitat conditions, but may be in a weakened condition to do
so. Migratory waterfowl can also be negatively impacted by reductions in wetland habitat areas
during drought. Loss of irrigated rice fields in Texas contributed to significant declines in
wintering waterfowl along the Gulf Coast. The most significant decline was documented for
snow geese, with a 71% decline for 2011–2014 as compared to the long-term average (GCPLCC
2014). Playa lakes in the High Plains serve as important habitat for migrating waterfowl, but
during the drought these wetlands were virtually nonexistent.

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Plant community changes are also occurring, possibly due to climate change and other factors,
and these changes in turn affect fish and wildlife. In the Southern Great Plains region, winters are
warmer and spring is arriving earlier. Along the Texas coast, black mangroves, which are
sensitive to cold, are expanding northward along the coast, and red mangroves, formerly not
found in Texas, are now appearing there (Schmandt 2011). Warmer winters with fewer freezes
are also conducive to pests and diseases. Woody shrubs invading prairie grasslands are favored
by increases in concentrations of CO2, changes in soil moisture cycles, fire suppression, and soil
disturbances (GCPLCC 2014). The 2011 drought produced a direct and indirect tree mortality
rate of over 6%—many times the normal rate (Moore et al 2016).

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Aquatic Ecosystems  

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Climate change impacts to aquatic ecosystems include higher water temperatures in lakes,
wetlands, rivers, and estuaries that can result in lower dissolved oxygen, leading to more fish
kills. Impacts to reservoirs include fluctuating lake levels, loss of habitat, loss of recreational
access, increase in harmful algal blooms, and disconnectedness from upstream and downstream
riverine habitats. Localized declines in fish populations have been documented in rivers due to
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lack of water or water confined to increasingly narrow pools; in some cases, these declines
prompted biologists to capture and relocate some endangered species to fish hatcheries (TPW
2012). Extended or more frequent drought can have a number of negative impacts on freshwater
mussel populations, including increased predation pressures, hypoxia (low oxygen conditions),
increasing water temperature, and ultimately, anoxia (no dissolved oxygen in water) or emersion
(stranding the organism out of water and exposing it to air).

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Coastal/Bays and Estuaries 

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The Texas coast, with 6.5 million people contributing over $37 billion to the region's economy,
relies on its natural features, bays and estuaries that serve as storm barriers to protect coastal
infrastructure, and its climate amenities to spur ecosystem services, such as fishing, ecotourism,
and the ocean economy. These coastal ecosystems not only provide protection for people but
also for 25% of the Nation's refining capacity, four crucial ports, much of the strategic petroleum
reserves, and strategic military deployment and distribution installations. This protection was
clearly on display with the recent impacts of Hurricane Harvey, where it has been estimated that
natural coastal habitats protected about $2.4 billion worth of property in Texas and thousands of
lives, with the suggestion that these habitats are potentially our first lines of defense (Narayan et
al. 2017).

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A rising sea level impacts over 74% of Gulf-facing beaches in the upper Texas coast. The
average rate of beach erosion is almost 10 feet per year (Paine, 2014). Sea level rise means more
frequent and longer-lasting flooding of marshes that eventually could be permanently flooded,
becoming open water (Schmandt 2011, Subedee 2016). Higher tides and storm surges cause
inundation of freshwater areas and beach erosion, leading to a potential decrease or loss of
barrier islands and coastal habitats, including nesting habitats and submerged habitat such as
seagrass beds affected by changes in water quality and changing water depths.

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The warming of Texas bay waters has been documented for at least 35 years. This mostly
reflects warmer winters, not warmer summers. The increase in water temperature directly affects
water quality, leading to the higher potential for low dissolved oxygen, or hypoxia. Hypoxic
events and harmful algal blooms have caused fish kills, leading to lower productivity, and
diversity of estuarine ecosystems (Schmandt 2011).

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Freshwater inflows are critical to both aquatic ecosystems and wetlands in the Southern Great
Plains. Both surface and ground water depletion have led to dramatic changes of the aquatic and
wetland communities in Kansas (Perkin et al 2017) that not only impact inland species but have a
dramatic effect on coastal species relying on the freshwater inflow to ensure the integrity of the
coastal ecosystem. Whooping Crane and many other migratory species flying through this region
during both spring and fall are impacted (Mooney and McClelland, 2012). Climate change and
human use have impacted these aquatic systems and wetlands, and ultimately the vital flow of
freshwater to the coastal marshes and estuaries.

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Changes to freshwater inflows to estuaries lead to changes in salinity and in flows of nutrients

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and sediment, resulting in impacts to oysters and other sensitive estuarine species. In addition,
harmful algal blooms have been increasing and are expected to worsen (NFWPCAP 2012).
Reduced freshwater inflows during 2011 led to record high salinities in Texas estuaries that
contributed to a coast-wide “red tide” harmful algal bloom event. Red tides, a type of harmful
algal bloom, most commonly occur during drought years, as the organism that causes red tide
does not tolerate low salinity. Red tide blooms cause fish kills and contaminate oysters. In
addition, oysters and other shellfish can accumulate red tide toxins in their tissues. People who
eat oysters or other shellfish containing red tide toxins may become seriously ill with neurotoxic
shellfish poisoning. Once a red tide appears to be over, toxins can remain in the oysters for
weeks to months. The 2011 bloom started in September and lasted into 2012. Fish mortality was
estimated at 4.4 million. The commercial oyster season was closed and disaster declarations
issued. The total economic loss was estimated at $7.5 million (Loeffler 2015).

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Gray snapper have been ranging farther north since the 1990s; once found only in the lower
Laguna Madre and off the extreme southern shore of Texas, they are now migrating northward
along the upper Texas Coast. Conversely, flounder abundance has been declining due to the
negative effect warmer winters have on recruitment (Montalvo 2010, Tolan and Fisher 2009),
since sex ratios are influenced by temperature during flounder development and increases in
temperature produce increasingly male-skewed sex ratios in southern flounder from Texas.

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Title: Climate Winners and Losers (Gray Snapper and Southern Flounder) 

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Figure 23.2: Trends in annual abundance of gray snapper (bottom) and southern flounder (top). 
As water temperatures increase along the Texas Gulf Coast, gray snapper are expanding 
northward along the Texas coast, while popular southern flounder are becoming less abundant, 
impacting recreational and commercial fishing industry. Source: Texas Parks and Wildlife 
Department Coastal Fisheries Resource Monitoring Data. 

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What options exist for managing risk? 

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The National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy (NFWPCAP 2012) was
developed to provide natural resource managers and decisionmakers the strategies and tools to
address climate change impacts. The Strategy offers a guide for actions that can be taken in spite
of remaining uncertainties over how climate change will impact living resources.

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The Texas Edwards Aquifer Implementation Program Habitat Conservation Plan (Recon et
al. 2012) balances water pumping and use of the aquifer with protection of eight federally-listed
threatened and endangered species that depend on San Marcos Springs and Comal Springs, two
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of the largest springs in the southwestern United States. These springs are the headwaters of the
San Marcos and Comal Rivers and provide important water flow especially during drought, to
the Guadalupe River and Estuary.

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Environmental flows—instream flows and freshwater inflows to bays and estuaries—are critical
for sustaining aquatic ecosystems. In 2007, the Texas Legislature passed Senate Bill 3, which
established a comprehensive, statewide process to protect environmental flows (Loeffler 2015).
The process relies upon input from local stakeholder groups, composed of balanced interests
ranging from agricultural water users to commercial anglers. The Texas Commission on
Environmental Quality has adopted environmental flow standards intended to protect flow
regimes that will help ensure healthy rivers, streams, and estuaries for Texas. The focus now is
on adaptive management to refine standards, address research needs, and identify voluntary
strategies to meet environmental flow standards.

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Texas Coastal Resiliency Master Plan—Texas General Land Office 2017 (TGLO 2017): The
Plan promotes coastal resiliency, defined as the ability of coastal resources and coastal
infrastructure to withstand natural or human-induced disturbances and quickly rebound from
coastal hazards. This definition encompasses the two dimensions of resiliency: 1) taking actions
to eliminate or reduce significant adverse impacts from natural and human-induced disturbances,
and 2) responding effectively in instances when such adverse impacts cannot be avoided. To
keep pace with the dynamic Texas coastline, the Plan will be updated regularly to allow the state
to continually assess changing coastal conditions and needs, and to determine the most suitable
way to implement the appropriate coastal protection solutions.

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Key Message 4: Human Health 

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Key Message 4: Climate change will increase exposure to certain health threats, including
extreme heat and diseases transmitted through food, water, and insects. These health threats
may occur over longer periods of time, or at times of the year where these threats are not
normally experienced. Given the widespread changes expected in the Southern Great Plains,
health threats will be both varied and widespread.

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Extreme Heat 

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Extreme heat causes both direct and indirect impacts on human health and acts as a threat
multiplier to the medically vulnerable. The increase in extreme heat due to climate change will
exacerbate the medical issues associated with heat illness. More detail can be found in Chapter
14: Human Health.

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Notably, heat stress is strongly correlated with complications of lung disease, such as asthma and
emphysema, as well as dehydration and injurious electrolyte abnormalities. It is estimated that
each approximately 1.8°F (1°C) degree increase in summer temperature increases the death rate
for elders with chronic conditions by 2.8% to 4.0% (Zanobetti 2012). During heat waves,
concrete, blacktop, and the low ventilation capacity of urban “canyons” created by tall buildings
can add 7°–12°F to the urban heat load (Harlan et al 2006). The heatwave of 2011 exemplifies

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the human health and health care system impacts of extreme heat in the Southern Great Plains.
The average temperature from June to August in Texas was 86.7°F (30.4°C), which broke all
previous single-month records and was 5.2°F (2.9°C) higher than the long-term climatological
average (Hoerling et al 2013). Studies demonstrated a 3.6% increase in emergency room visits
and a 0.6% increase in deaths, with the largest effect on the elderly (Zhang et al 2015, Chien et at
2016).

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Vector-Borne Disease 

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Rising temperatures and precipitation alter the habitats of vectors (mosquitoes, ticks, rodents and
fleas) that transmit a variety of human diseases. In the Southern Great Plains, Hantavirus
(USCDC 2016a), Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever (USCDC 2016b), Leptospirosis (USCDC
2016c), and West Nile Virus (USCDC 2016d) are all currently endemic and may be impacted by
climate change (Ebi and Nealon 2016, Klempa 2009). A warmer world will create newly
hospitable habitats for tropical and subtropical insect vectors and the diseases they carry.
Historically, disease-free areas have been protected from becoming hazardous by cold
environmental temperatures. That is, with extreme low temperatures of winter, insect (and in
particular, mosquito) populations are decimated. However, as the average global temperature
increases, mosquitoes will thrive longer and reproduce more successfully at higher latitudes and
altitudes. Tropical diseases, such as Dengue virus (DENV), Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and
Zika virus are transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes which are currently expanding their geographic
range in the southern United States (Ebi and Nealon 2016). In southern Texas, sporadic, locally
acquired outbreaks of Dengue have been reported (Thomas et al 2016). In 2005, there were 59
cases of DENV in southern Texas which met criteria for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (USCDCP
2005), indicating that inhabitants were exposed to multiple viral serotypes, a condition necessary
for the development of severe manifestations of DENV. In 2014, locally transmitted cases of
Chikungunya began to be reported in Texas (USCDC 2016e). Zika virus has also recently
appeared in the region. In 2016, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a
travel warning for Cameron County, Texas, after the first case of local, person-to-person
transmission of Zika was reported (USCDC 2016f). The ecology of vector-borne diseases is
complex, and the future risk for proliferation and expansion of the ranges of these diseases is
possible under future climate scenarios (Gubler et al 2001, Butterworth et al 2017). Along the
Southern Gulf Coast, stronger hurricanes could increase the likelihood of favorable ecologic
niches for emerging infectious diseases that infect humans and animals (Steiner 2015a).

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Drought 

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As water evaporates during periods of drought, the remaining water can have higher
concentrations of chemicals and solid particles, lower dissolved oxygen levels, and a higher
density of germs that cause infectious diseases. Fewer and smaller water sources during drought
means that there are many more users (humans and animals) for a given (limited) resource,
which makes germ transmission and outbreaks of infectious disease more likely. Waterborne
diseases that have been linked to drought include amoebiasis, hepatitis A, salmonellosis,

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schistosomiasis, shigellosis, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers, infection with E. coli, cholera, and
leptospirosis (Murray 2009, Effler et al 2001, Tauxe et al 1988, Bradley et al 1996). Skin
infections, such as scabies and impetigo, and eye infections, including conjunctivitis, are also
correlated with drought due to a lack of water available for personal hygiene (Stanke et al 2013).

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Downstream—Food Stability and Access  

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Droughts, floods, and higher temperatures will change the balance of ecosystems, allowing
invasive species such as animal pests, plant weeds, and algae blooms to proliferate and harm
existing agriculture (Pimentel 1993). Such conditions favor fungal species that can overwhelm
crops and contaminate animal feedstocks. An example is the fungal strain Phytophthora
infestans, which was responsible for the great Irish potato famine of the 1840s, and its variation
that currently causes $6 billion in crop damage per year in the United States alone (Callaway
2013, Barford 2013). Additionally, increases in CO2 are changing the nutritional composition of
food crops (Myers et al 2017). Elevated CO2 levels have been shown to reduce the protein
composition of grains, tubers, rice, wheat, and barley (Myers et al 2014). Micronutrient contents
are also affected by rising CO2 levels, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 550 parts per
million being associated with reductions in zinc, iron, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, sulfur,
magnesium, copper, and manganese across a wide range of crops (Loladze 2014).

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Key Message 5: Indigenous Peoples 

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Key Message 5: Tribal nations and indigenous communities in the Southern Great Plains are
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including water resource impacts,
extreme weather events, higher temperatures, and other public health issues. Efforts to adapt
and build community resilience may be hindered by economic, political, and infrastructure
limitations. Traditional knowledge and intertribal organizations provide opportunities to
respond to the challenges of climate change.

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The 46 federally recognized tribes (48 if state-recognized tribal nations are included) located in
the Southern Great Plains show considerable economic, social, cultural, and linguistic/language
diversity (Hoxie and Iverson 2014, Tribble 2014, Wilkins and Stark 2017). The 4 tribes of
Kansas (59,130 people), 39 tribes of Oklahoma (482,760 people), including 1 state-recognized
tribe, and 5 tribes of Texas (6,210 people), including 2 state-recognized tribes, experience the
same climate change impacts as the rest of the Nation (USCB 2016). However, these sovereign
nations within the United States are faced with infrastructure (social and physical), economic,
political, and cultural challenges as well as unique opportunities in their response to climate
change impacts.

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Climate Change Threats to Tribal Cultural Traditions and Community Resilience 

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No climate change threats are as significant to the tribal nations of the Southern Great Plains as
those that threaten the ability to procure food, water, shelter, and preserve ancient cultural
activities (Maldonado et al 2014, NCAI 2016, Adger et al 2013). Given the ancient symbiotic
relationship between environment and culture that shapes tribal identities and life-way practices,

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climate-induced changes to the seasons, landscapes, and ecosystems pose an existential threat to
tribal cultural traditions and community resilience (Daigle et al 2014, Deloria and Wildcat 2001,
Wildcat 2009). For example, climate change, including the impacts of excessive heat, drought,
and the disappearance of native species, is already disrupting ceremonial cycles in Oklahoma
(Blanchard 2015; Yellowman 2017).

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Physical and Organizational Infrastructure 

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The region’s tribal nations vary greatly in size, from small nations with fewer than 1,000
enrolled members to larger nations with over 50,000 enrolled members; the largest of the tribes
is the Cherokee Nation with more than 317,000 enrolled members (Cherokee, 2016). The smaller
nations, given their population size and respective size of government, often struggle to exercise
their sovereignty to respond to climate change due to a lack of organizational and physical
infrastructure (Warner and Kronk 2014, McNeely 2017). The social organizational infrastructure
needed to adapt to climate change impacts like extreme weather events, rising temperatures,
shifting seasons, invasive species, air and water quality issues, and a host of health impacts is
often lacking or underdeveloped in small tribal nations. Consequently, the smaller tribes depend
largely on the services, grant programs, and technology transfer capabilities of the Bureau of
Indian Affairs and other Federal government departments, agencies, and bureaus to assist in their
climate adaptation efforts. There are exceptions—larger and wealthier tribal nations, such as the
Chickasaw Nation, Citizen Band Potawatomi, and Muscogee Creek Nation can develop and
shape, to a much larger extent, their own climate adaptation strategies (Bierbaum et al 2013).

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Lack of physical infrastructure, tied directly to limited economic resources and power, poses a
substantial obstacle to climate change adaptation for the tribes of the region. While cities and
other governmental jurisdictions make plans to build resilient physical infrastructure by using
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bonds, public-private partnerships, and taxes and tax instruments, only a handful of tribal nations
have the ability to use these tools for climate adaptation. Most tribal nations remain dependent on
underfunded federal programs and grants for building and construction activities that could
improve the resiliency of their infrastructure in the face of climate change threats. Many larger
and wealthier tribes have modeled construction and design of homes and large commercial
building best practices on “green” or resilient net-zero carbon footprint designs. Increasing
activity in community gardens, food recovery, recycling, water conservation, land-use planning,
and investment in climate-resilient community design all signal opportunities for tribal nations to
“leap-frog” significant obstacles other city, county, and state governments face when dealing
with the costs of existing physical infrastructure that often make climate change adaptation
difficult and incremental.

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Traceable Accounts  

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Author Process Description 

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The initial Southern Great Plains author team was selected such that expertise from each of the
state’s officially recognized climate offices in the region (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) was
included. The offices of the state climatologist in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas are each
members of the American Association of State Climatologists (AASC). AASC was founded in
1976 and is the recognized professional scientific organization for climate expertise at the state
level. We are fortunate to have each of the AASC-recognized state climatologists from the
region on our author team.

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In addition, the Southern Great Plains is host to several regional hubs of national and regional
climate expertise. These include the U.S. Department of Agriculture Southern Plains Climate
Hub located in El Reno, OK; the U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science
Center in Norman, OK; and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Regional
Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program
(SCIPP) in Norman, OK. One representative from each of these centers expertise was included
on the author team.

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After assessing the areas of expertise of the six author selectees from the state and regional
centers above, a gap analysis was conducted to prioritize areas of expertise that were missing.
Because of the importance of the sovereign tribal nations to the Southern Great Plains, an
accomplished scholar with expertise in indigenous knowledge on the environment and climate
change was also selected. The selectee was from the premiere tribal university in the U.S.,
Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, KS. An additional need was to gain expertise at
the complex intersection of coupled atmosphere-land-ocean systems, climate, and humans
(population and urbanization). We selected an individual from the Environmental Science
Institute at the University of Texas at Austin with this expertise. We also needed someone with
expertise in the electric utility industry. To fill this need we added expertise from the Oklahoma
Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives. This individual has a long history of working with
rural and urban populations, and with researchers and forecasters in weather and climate.

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It was then determined that we would allow Southern Great Plains stakeholders to drive
additional priorities. A multi-state, multi-modal listening engagement workshop was held. The
productive dialog at this workshop identified important needs in environmental economics,
ecosystems, and health. Scientists working at the cutting edge of research in these three areas
were selected. The ecosystems expert was from the Texas Department of Wildlife. The
environmental economist was from the Department of Geography and Environmental
Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma. The health experts are from the University of
Colorado School of Medicine and the Aspen Global Change Institute, and have significant
expertise in interdisciplinary global and regional health and climate change research.

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This diverse collection of doctors, academicians, researchers, scientists and practitioners give the

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Southern Great Plains chapter a wealth of expertise across the many ways in which climate
change will affect people in our region.

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Key Message 1: Food, Energy, and Water Resources 

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Key Message 1: The region’s growing population, the migration of individuals from rural to
urban locations, and climate change will increase and redistribute demand and result in
resource contention at the intersection of food consumption, energy production, and water
resources (likely, high confidence). This “nexus” is inextricably linked to quality of life,
particularly in rural areas as well as across both national and transnational borders. (likely,
high confidence).

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Description of evidence base 

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The connection between food, water and energy are inextricably linked, yet this connection also
creates great challenges in managing and distribution of resources. People need food, energy and
they need water, yet all sectors pull from each and allocation is a challenge. There are many
references of the competitive nature revolving around these resources and the demand by people
(Berady & Chester 2017). The management and application of these issues are social in context
and require significant communication and collaboration to resolve. As demands for these
resources become more acute, development of collaborative processes to ensure integrated use
and allocation will be required.

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Major uncertainties 

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Complexities of the water, food, and energy nexus creates a level of uncertainty that is difficult

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Description of confidence and likelihood 

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The southern Great Plains will continue to grow rapidly and with high probability of significant
competition. Water is the major concern and political inability to develop a system to allocate
water in an equitable manner will continue to build this competitive and contentious issue among
all users—energy, food, and water.

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Key Message 2: Infrastructure 

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Key Message 2: Higher temperatures, extreme precipitation, and rising sea levels associated
with climate change make the built environment in the Southern Plains increasingly
vulnerable to disruption, particularly as infrastructure ages and populations shift to urban
centers (likely, high confidence). Coastal infrastructure remains particularly at risk as most
climate projections suggest sea level rise of up to four feet if emissions are not reduced

to document and establish high certainty. It is likely, and with significant certainty, that the
completion and use of the resources for people will continue; however, the likelihood of
developing a means to manage this situation is another matter. The added complexities of people
and cultures, a rapidly growing population, and a diminishing availability of resources (water
especially) in this geography, will be at the forefront of many political efforts and the very fabric
of the southern great plains.

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(likely, high confidence).

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Description of evidence base 

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The existing infrastructure and projected models for growth are well established and
documented. Population growth models are refined and high degree of certainty exists for these
efforts to have major impacts on our culture. Population growth is linked to the budgets which
cannot keep up with demand and climate-related issues will take significant maintenance
resources.

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Major uncertainties 

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Ground transportation during floods is susceptible to environmental factors which clearly reduce
life expectancy and use. With reduced maintenance, these issues could become acute, but the
outcomes are less certain than the actual impacts.

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Description of confidence and likelihood 

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Cities like El Paso and Austin, Texas are and will continue to be significantly impacted by
climate.

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Key Message 3: Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services 

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Key Message 3: Climate change affects terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, influencing extreme
droughts, unprecedented floods, and wildfires that directly and indirectly alter ecosystems
and impact species (likely, high confidence). Some species adapt to changing climates, while
others cannot, resulting in significant impacts to both services and people living in these
ecosystems (likely, high confidence).

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Description of evidence base 

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The Ecosystem Key Message was developed through technical discussions developed within
science teams and collaborators of the Gulf Coast and Great Plains LCCs, using scientific
literature, relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the authors.

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The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during exchanges with contributing
authors, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the Traceable Accounts associated with
each Key Message.

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Major uncertainties 

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Ecosystems and the species that occur in these ecosystems have witnessed a rapid decline in
many “common species” as well as certain rare species. Increases in many non-native species
have led to both concern and opportunity. Continued habitat and population shifts and the impact
of interactions between people, other resources and available habitat stressors are vague. Indirect
impact to livestock and agricultural systems is also unknown. The uncertainty of animal and
plant diseases and parasites impacting commercial production and the interaction with wild
species is anticipated, but the degree of impact is uncertain.

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Description of confidence and likelihood 
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There is high confidence that rising temperatures and increases in flooding, runoff events, and
drought will likely lead to changes in the aquatic and terrestrial habitats supporting many
regional species. Flooding has changed the complex of many riparian habitats. Increases already
seen in extreme drought have caused downturns in the fish and wildlife related industries, with
losses in traditional fish (crab and oysters) and wildlife species (waterfowl) important for both
recreational and commercial purposes.

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In contrast, habitat created by invasive species due to climate changes has improved populations
of other species. The expanded stress due to a rapidly growing population in this region increases
the likelihood (high confidence) of negative natural resource and ecosystems outcomes in the
future.

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Key Message 4: Human Health 

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Key Message 4: Climate change will increase exposure to certain health threats, including
extreme heat and diseases transmitted through food, water, and insects. (highly likely, high
confidence) These health threats may occur over longer periods of time, or at times of the
year where these threats are not normally experienced (likely, medium confidence). Given the
widespread changes expected in the Southern Great Plains, health threats will be both varied
and widespread (likely, high confidence).

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Description of evidence base 

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The health Key Message was developed with a thorough connection between the Human Health
Chapter (Ch. 14) team and many highly skilled scientists keenly aware of the recent past, current,
and projected future changes. Many of the health-related issues are very well documented with
strong evidence of impacts to all living organisms. Multiple lines of research have shown that
changes in weather extremes, such as increased extreme precipitation (leading to flooding and
runoff events), can result in increased microbial and chemical contamination of crops and water
in agricultural environments, with increases in human exposure (Ch. 7: Ecosystems &
Biodiversity).

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Major uncertainties 

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The direct health impacts to people and livestock are clearly expected, and there is consensus
that this has a high level of certainty. The uncertainty develops when there are many connected
actions that influence how those indirect and combined effects of these changes will promote or
change in new and unknown health-related issues. It is now and will be expected to remain
unclear in the future, whether the impact of climate change on any one disease organism will be
good or, in contrast, will be detrimental to that specific organisms’ impact on people and
animals. Parasites continue to develop further north, impacting many animals that were not
influenced by those organisms in the past. Likewise, many beneficial organisms may reveal an
unexpected change as ecological conditions change.

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Description of confidence and likelihood 

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There is very high confidence that rising temperatures and increases in flooding, runoff events,
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and drought will likely lead to change for health and disease considerations. The very young and
old, as well as those without air conditioning, will be disproportionately affected by the heat, in
part because they cannot protect themselves and because their bodies do not regulate body
temperature very well.

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Key Message 5: Indigenous Peoples 

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Key Message 5: Tribal nations and indigenous communities in the Southern Great Plains are
particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including water resource impacts,
extreme weather events, higher temperatures, and other public health issues (likely, high
confidence). Efforts to adapt and build community resilience may be hindered by economic,
political, and infrastructure limitations. Traditional knowledge and intertribal organizations
provide opportunities to respond to the challenges of climate change (likely, medium
confidence).

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Description of evidence base 

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The tribal Key Message was developed through dialogue and discussions developed among
indigenous communities and the social sciences. With indigenous communities varying in size
from smaller nations to large well-formed governments, they all are in need of communication
about the changes and realities of climate. There is strong evidence that because of the unique
nature of the indigenous, including previous and ongoing experiences of the communities, the
collective economic and political power for enacting efficient and effective climate adaptation
responses may be limited at best. There seems to be a high to extremely high consensus among
the nations that impacts of climate will be a direct threat to the symbiotic connection between
environment and the tribal traditions connecting the people with the land.

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Major uncertainties 

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Communicating with clarity and connecting with the widely variable size of tribal communities
leads to a great deal of uncertainty regarding how climate change will be integrated into their
cultures. It is likely adaptation strategies will vary greatly as knowledge and communication may
not be widely supported within all nations. Due to disproportionate rates of poverty and access to
information and collaborative support, some communities may suffer more than others; however,
the degree and the impacts are very unclear.

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Description of confidence and likelihood 

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There is high confidence that extreme events and long-term climate shifts will lead to changes in
the SGP Indigenous communities. Environmental connections will be direct, but the degree is
uncertain, and how the shifts in climate impact each nation will vary widely. How changes will
be perceived and managed, and what steps are taken to adapt, are vague and come with a low
level of confidence that adaptation will be a successful mechanism among all peoples.  

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References  
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great plains of the United States. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54(9),
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Edison Electric Institute, 2008. “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment
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Montalvo, 2010
Steiner, J., J.M. Schneider, C. Pope, S. Pope, and R.F. Steele, 2015a: Southern Plains
Assessment of Vulnerability and Preliminary Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies for Farmers,
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Steiner, J.L., J.M. Schneider, C. Pope, S. Pope, P. Ford, R.F. Steele 2015b. Evaluación de
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Runkle, J., K. Kunkel, J. Nielsen-Gammon, R. Frankson, S. Champion, B. Stewart, L. Romolo,
and W. Sweet, 2017: Texas State Summary. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 149-TX, 4 pp.
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Brooks, H.E., 2013. Severe thunderstorms and climate change. Atmospheric Research, 123: 129138.
Cook, B.I., T.R. Ault, and J.E. Smerdon, 2015: Unprecedented 21st-century drought risk in the
American Southwest and Central Plains. Sci. Adv., 1, no. 1, e1400082,
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Miles of Highway in the State of Oklahoma, Oklahoma Highway Safety Office;
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Potter, L.B., and N. Hoque (2014): Texas Population Projections, 2010 through 2050.
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