Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research Institute of Governmental Studies 124-126 Moses Hall University of California Berkeley, CA 94720 BERKELEY IGS Tel: 510-642-6835 Email: igs@berkeley.edu INSTITUTE OF GOVERNMENTAL STUDIES Release #2017-20 For Publication: Thursday, December 21, 2017 Democrats Newsom and Villaraigosa lead the field in next June?s top two primary election for governor einstein leads Democratic challenger cle Leon, but receives a modest 41% of voter support By Mark DiCamillo, Director, Berkeley Poll (0) 510-642?6835 415-602-5594 Two Democrats sit atop the crowded ?eld of candidates vying to succeed Jerry Brown as California?s governor in next June?s top-two primary election. The latest Berkeley Poll ?nds Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom capturing 26% of likely voter preferences, followed by former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, at 17%. Two Republicans, businessman John Cox and Travis Allen, trail with 9% each. If the hierarchy of voter preferences found in this poll continue, it would result in the state?s ?rst all? Democratic candidate gubernatorial election in the fall. One of the major features characterizing preferences in the govemor?s race is the contrasting demographic pro?le of the voters backing the two leading Democratic candidates. Newsom?s strongest base of support comes from voters living in Northern California, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Area, while Villaraigosa is preferred among voters in Southern California, especially Los Angeles County. Newsom leads among white non-Hispanics and among U.S.-born voters, while Villaraigosa?s holds a big edge among the state?s rapidly growing Latino voting electorate and among voters of all nationalities born outside the United States. Newsom is also preferred by voters at the upper end of the income scale, while Villaraigosa has the advantage among those at the lower end of the scale. It is also possible that the fall general election for US. Senate will pit two Democrats against one another, since no prominent Republicans have yet to enter the race. However, incumbent Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein will be facing at least one prominent Democratic challenger, state Senate President Kevin de Leon. When the two are paired in a US. Senate trial heat, the current poll ?nds Feinstein leading de Leon 41% to 27%. Feinstein?s relatively modest lead is somewhat surprising given that the Senator is nearly universally known by voters, while relatively few of those polled know enough about de Leon to offer an opinion. ewsom and Villaraigosa leading the ?eld in top two primary election for governor In each statewide gubernatorial survey conducted this year by the Berkeley Poll, Newsom has been the frontrunner. The latest poll shows Newsom again leading the field, with 26% of the preferences of likely voters. Fellow Democrat Villaraigosa places a strong second, with 17% support. Republicans Cox and Allen follow with while two other Democrats, state Treasurer John Chiang and former state schools superintendent Delaine Eastin, trail with 5% each. Greater than one in four likely voters are undecided. Table 1 Trend of voter preferences in the June 2018 top two primary election for Governor December 2017 Likely Registered voters voters September May Gavin Newsom (D) 26 23 23 22 Antonio Villaraigosa (D) 17 l9 12 '17 John Cox (R) 9 9 10 9 Travis Allen (R) 9 7 9 NA John Chiang (D) 5 5 7 5 Delaine Eastin (D) 5 4 4 3 Others 1 1 7 Undecided 28 32 35 37 Note: May 2017 survey included Republican David Hadley among the candidates polled. He has since dropped out ofihe race. Less than 72 of NA: Not measured (D) denotes Democrat, (R) denotes Republican Demographic pro?le of voters backing Newsom and Villaraigosa differ markedly The poll ?nds big differences in voter preferences of Newsom and Villaraigosa across major regional and demographic subgroups of the state?s likely voter population. Newsom?s strongest base of support comes from voters living in Northern California, especially voters in the San Francisco Bay Area, where he holds a huge 55% to 6% lead. By contrast, Villaraigosa is preferred over Newsom in Southern California, especially in Los Angeles County, where he leads 31% to 20%. Newsom is heavily favored over the former Los Angeles Mayor by self?described liberals and moderates (36% to while Villaraigosa receives greater support among conservative voters (15% to Villaraigosa?s strongest base of support comes from the state?s rapidly growing Latino voter constituency, where he leads Newsom by twenty-three points, 39% to 16%. Villaraigosa is also preferred over Newsom more than two to one (32% to 15%) among voters of all nationalities born outside the United States. On the other hand, Newsom holds a solid lead among white non?Hispanics (32% to and among U.S.?b0m voters (29% to The poll also ?nds Newsom heavily favored among voters with incomes of $100,000 or more (33% to while Villaraigosa holds the edge among those earning less than $40,000 (29% to Berkeley Poll #20! 7-20 2 Thursday, December 21, 20! 7 Table 2 Likely voter preferences for governor in the June 2018 ?top two? primary across major subgroups of the voting population Villa? Other/ Newsom raigosa Cox Allen Chiang Eastin ?Wedded Total likely voters Party registration Democrats 38 26 1 5 8 22 Republicans party preference/other Political ideology Conservative Moderate 36 5 5 5 4 34 Liberal 48 17 1 6 7 21 Area Southern California 'Northern California Region Los Angeles County Other Southern California San Francisco Bay Area Other Northern California 20 16 5 5 32 Gender Male Female Race/ethnicity White non?Hispanic 32 9 3 5 29 Latino African AmericanAsian American/other Age 18-40-50-older Nativity U.S. born Born outside the Annual Household Income Less than $40,000 $100,000 or more sma? sampl?e base less than ?72 of] Berkeley Poll #20! 7-20 3 Thursday, December 21, 20! 7 Backers of the two leading Democrats differ sharply with their GOP opponents about whether the next governor should carry on Governor Brown?s policies Voters in the current survey were also asked whether they preferred a gubernatorial candidate in 2018 that would carry on the policies of Governor Jerry Brown, or someone with different policy views. The electorate is about evenly divided about this overall, with 49% preferring a candidate who favors policies different than those of the current governor and 44% favoring someone who would generally carry on Brown?s policies. However, there are wide differences in opinion between voters backing the two leading Democratic candidates for governor and those supporting the two leading GOP candidates. Newsom supporters are strongest in their preference for continuing Brown?s policies (77% to and most backers of Villaraigosa also hold this view (60% to On the other hand, voters backing either of the two GOP gubernatorial candidates are nearly unanimous in preferring a gubernatorial candidate who espouses different policy positions than Brown?s. Undecided voters also appear to be looking for change, preferring someone who supports policies different than the sitting governor greater than two to one (62% to Table 3 As California?s next governor would you prefer someone who generally carries on the policies of Governor Jerry Brown or someone who favors different policies Total GOP Undec- likely Newsom Villaraigosa candidate ided voters supporters supporters supporters voters Supports different policies 49 18 28 94 62 Carry on Brown?s policies 44 77 60 3 28 No opinion 7 5 12 3 10 Note: Views Qf'supporters QfCiu?ang and Easlin not shown on this question because Qf'small sample bases. einstein leads de Leon in U.S. Senate trial heat Likely voters in this survey were also asked their voting preferences if their choices in next year?s U.S. Senate election were between Feinstein and her Democratic rival de Leon. In this setting, Feinstein leads de Leon by 14 points, 41% to 27%. However, an unusually large proportion of likely voters are undecided or say they would support another candidate. Feinstein?s strongest base of support against de Leon is from rank?and??le Democrats, political liberals, African Americans, and voters age 65 or older. By contrast, De Leon leads among Latinos and voters living in Northern California outside the Bay Area. De Leon is also preferred among Republicans and conservatives in the scenario where the only candidates were two Democratic candidates with no Republican alternatives. Berkeley Poll #20! 7-20 4 Thursday, December 21, 20! 7 Table 4 Voter preferences for U.S. Senate when pairing Democrat Dianne Feinstein against Democrat Kevin De Leon among likely voters Feinstein De Leon Other/Undecided Total likely voters 41 27 32 Party registration Democrats 58 22 20 Republicans 15 37 48 No party preference/other 36 25 39 Political ideology Conservative 16 35 49 Moderate 44 27 29 Liberal 58 24 18 Region Los Angeles County 43 32 25 Other Southern California 40 20 40 San Francisco Bay Area 46 23 31 Other Northern California 33 39 30 Gender Male 33 29 38 Female 47 26 27 Age 18-39 43 29 28 40-49 40 32 28 50-64 33 30 37 65 or older 47 19 34 Race/ethnicity White non?Hispanic 43 25 32 Latino 32 41 27 African American* 69 10 21 Asian American/other 33 22 45 sma/f sump/e base Voters? ability to offer an opinion of the candidates vary widely Feinstein is, by far, the best known of the candidates in next year?s elections for governor and U.S. Senate. Nearly nine in ten likely voters can offer an opinion of Feinstein, with Opinions dividing almost evenly, 45% favorable vs. 42% unfavorable. By contrast, just 21% of likely voters have an opinion of de Leon, and they divide 10% positive and 11% negative. Majorities of likely voters can also offer an opinion of the two leading gubernatorial candidates 57% in the case of Newsom and 58% for Villaraigosa. Voter assessments of Newsom are generally positive, 36% favorable vs. 21% unfavorable, while opinions of Villaraigosa are more divided -- 28% favorable vs. 30% unfavorable. The four other gubernatorial candidates polled are not nearly as well known to voters. Just 26% can offer an opinion of Chiang, and even fewer voters (between 10% and 14%) are able to give an assessment ofeither Eastin, Cox and Allen. Berkeley Poll #20! 7-20 5 Thursday, December 21, 20! 7 Table 5 Identi?cation and image ratings of candidates in the June primary elections for Governor and US. Senate (among likely voters) No party preference Total Democrats Republicans lother Dianne Feinstein, U.S. Senator Favorable 45 62 16 43 Unfavorable 42 20 77 42 No opinion 13 18 7 '17 Gavin Newsom, Lieutenant Governor Favorable 36 5] 13 34 Unfavorable 21 6 46 23 No opinion 43 43 41 43 Antonio Villaraigosa, former Los Angeles Mayor Favorable 28 39 8 28 Unfavorable 30 17 54 29 No opinion 42 44 38 43 John Chiang, State Treasurer Favorable 18 22 14 '13 Unfavorable 8 3 16 10 No opinion 74 75 70 77 Kevin de Leon, State Senate President Favorable l0 l4 3 10 Unfavorable 11 5 9 '1 5 No opinion 79 81 78 75 Delaine Eastin, former State Superin- tendent of Public Instruction Favorable 8 12 2 5 Unfavorable 6 5 10 6 No opinion 86 83 88 89 Travis Allen, State Favorable 7 6 6 l2 Unfavorable 3 2 5 4 No opinion 90 92 89 84 John Cox, businessman and lawyer Favorable 6 4 8 6 Unfavorable 4 4 5 6 No opinion 90 92 87 88 Berkeley P011 #20! 7-20 6 Thursday, December 201 7 About the Survey The ?ndings in this report come from a survey completed by the Institute of Governmental Studies, at the University of California, Berkeley among 1,000 California registered voters, including 672 likely voters. The survey was conducted between the period December 7?16, 2017 by telephone in English and Spanish by live interviewers. Voters were randomly sampled from listings of registered voters derived from the state?s official registered voter rolls. Up to four attempts were made to reach each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviews were administered by professionally trained and supervised interviewers calling from Davis Research?s central location call center in Calabasas (Los Angeles County), California. Interviewing was completed on either a voter?s cell phone or a household landline phone depending on the source of the telephone listings from the voter file. In this survey 688 interviews were completed with voters on their cell phone, while 312 completed on a landline phone. After the completion of interviewing, the results from the overall registered voter sample were weighted to demographic, regional and political parameters of the state's registered voter population. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size and the percentage distributions being examined. The maximum sampling error for results from the likely voter sample is 3.8 percentage points at the 95% con?dence level. Results based on subgroups of the likely voter sample would be subject to larger margins of sampling error. Questions Asked Governor Brown will not be allowed to run for re?election next year because of the state?s term limits law. When thinking about California?s next governor, would you prefer someone who would generally carry on Governor Brown?s policies or someone who favors policies that are different than Brown?s? I am going to read some people who are candidates or are considering running for statewide office next year. For each, please tell me whether your opinion of that person is favorable, unfavorable or whether you don?t know enough about them to say. Is your opinion of favorable or unfavorable or don?t you know enough about (him) (her) to say? (NAMES AND JOB TITLES READ IN RANDOM ORDER), Next year?s June primary election for governor will be an open primary, in which all candidates from all parties are listed together on one ballot. I?m going to read the names of some of the candidates. Please tell me who you would vote for if the election for governor were held today. (NAMES AND PARTIES READ IN RANDOM ORDER), If these were the candidates, who would you vote for? There will also be an election for US. Senator in California next year. If the election for US. Senator were held today and the candidates were Democrats Dianne Feinstein and Kevin de Leon, who would you vote for? (NAMES AND PARTIES OF THE CANDIDATES READ IN RANDOM ORDER) About the Institute of Governmental Studies The Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) is an interdisciplinary organized research unit that pursues a vigorous program of research, education, publication and public service. A component of the University of California (UC) system?s ?agship Berkeley campus, it is the oldest organized research unit in the UC system and the oldest public policy research center in the state. IGS conducts periodic surveys of California public opinion on matters of politics, public policy and public issues through its Berkeley IGS Poll, housed within its newly established Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research. For a complete listing of stories issued by the poll go to Berkeley IGS Poll #20! 7-20 7 Thursday, December 21, 20/ 7