IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF COOK COUNTY, ILLINOIS COUNTY DEPARTMENT, CRIMINAL DIVISION PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, Respondent I v. No. 95 CR 18602 Thomas Sierra, j: Hon. William Lacy Petitioner. presiding. tut if? 4 1: NOTICE OF FILING AND PROOF OF SERVICE To: Carol Rogala Assistant State?s Attorney Post-Conviction Unit 2650 S. California Avenue Chicago, IL 60608 Please take notice that on September 20, 2017, we caused to be ?led the attached Second Supplement to Amended Petition for Post-Conviction Relief in the above-entitled case with the Clerk of the Circuit Court of Cook County, Criminal Division a copy of which is hereby served on you. Respectfully Submitted, One of Petitioner?s Attorneys Steve Art Anand Swaminathan Joshua Tepfer Exoneration Project (Atty No. 44407) 311 N. Aberdeen St, 3mt Floor Chicago, IL 60607 312-789-4955 IN THE CIRCUIT COURT OF COOK COUNTY, ILLINOIS COUNTY DEPARTMENT, CRIMINAL DIVISION PEOPLE OF THE STATE OF ILLINOIS, Respondent, V. No. 95 CR 18602 THOMAS SIERRA, Hon. William Lacy Petitioner. presiding. SECOND SUPPLEMENT TO AMENDED PETITION FOR POST-CONVICTION RELIEF Petitioner, THOMAS SIERRA, through his attorneys, THE EXONERATION PROJECT, ?les this Second Supplement to his Amended Petition for Post-Conviction Relief. In support thereof, Petitioner states as follows: PROCEDURAL HISTORY 1. Following an appellate court remand for stage two proceedings, see People v. Sierra, Nos. 1-00-0910 1-00-1461 (lSt Dist. March 15, 2002) (unpublished Rule 23 Order), on April 18, 2011, through counsel, Petitioner Thomas Sierra ?led an Amended Petition for Post-Conviction Relief. The Amended Petition raised a claim related to a jury instruction, and a separate constitutional claim based on newly discovered information about the pattern and practice of investigative misconduct by Detective Reynaldo Guevara and his partners. 2. On June 7, 2013, this Court denied the State?s motion to dismiss the amended petition and ordered an evidentiary hearing. 3. Petitioner, thereafter, filed a motion for judgment on the pleadings related to the jury instruction issue. After the State?s written objection and argument, this Court denied the motion on October 27, 2016. 4. On May 4, 2017, this Court granted undersigned counsel leave to file an appearance. 5. An evidentiary hearing is pending on, at minimum, Petitioner?s due process claim on the pattern and practice of investigative misconduct of Detective Guevara, as raised in Petitioner?s April 2011 amended petition.1 6. On August 1, 2017, Petitioner ?led a First Supplement to Amended Petition for Post- Conviction Relief, setting out signi?cant new evidence relating to Detective Guevara?s pattern and practice of investigative misconduct. 7. Last year in People v. Lerma, 2016 IL 118496, 1] 24, the Illinois Supreme Court 6? recognized that eyewitness misidenti?cation is now the single greatest source of wrongful convictions in the United States, and responsible for more wrong?il convictions than all other causes combined.?? (quoting State Dubose, 699 582, 591-92 (Wis. 2005)). not only have seen that eyewitness identi?cations are not always as reliable as they appear, but we also have learned, from a scienti?c standpoint, why this is often the case.? Id. The Supreme Court decided that scienti?c evidence regarding the reliability of eyewitness identi?cations is ?well settled, well supported, and in appropriate cases a perfectly proper subject for expert testimony.? Id. Sierra has enlisted the services of eyewitness expert Dr. Nancy Franklin to testify about the reliability of the eyewitness identi?cations in this matter. i Following this Court?s order granting an evidentiary hearing, the State ?led a motion in limine requesting that Petitioner identify, with speci?city, the evidence of Guevara?s other acts he intends to present at the evidentiary hearing. The parties have had preliminary discussions about this matter and hope to reach an agreement on how to proceed. Petitioner?s evidence Will focus on the facts identi?ed in paragraphs 37.b?48 of this pleading, as well as the testimony of Jose Melendez, discussed below. See infra footnote 4. 10. 11. . Petitioner ?les this second supplement to his pleading to disclose the eyewitness expert report of Dr. Nancy Franklin, to identify facts and witnesses he may rely upon at the upcoming evidentiary hearing, and to add to his actual innocence claim. THE EYEWITNESS EXPERT REPORT OF DR. NANCY FRANKLIN . As the Illinois Supreme Court has recognized recently, modern science regarding eyewitness identi?cation provides an additional and compelling reason to doubt the accuracy of identi?cations made by State?s witnesses Melendez and Rodriguez. In addition, the science of eyewitness identi?cations provides additional evidence that Melendez and Rodriguez identi?ed Sierra only at Detective Guevara?s behest, and demonstrates that Detective Guevara?s testimony on the stand at Sierra?s trial is inaccurate. Petitioner hereby disclosed Dr. Nancy Franklin, who has prepared the expert report attached at Exhibit 22 to this supplement, as an expert witness in this case. Dr. Franklin will explain this modern scienti?c evidence in detail at the hearing of this matter. In People v. Lerma, 2016 IL 118496, 11 24 (2016), our Supreme Court recognized that meyewitness misidenti?cation is now the single greatest source of wrongful convictions in the United States, and responsible for more wrongful convictions than all other causes combined.?? (quoting State Dubose, 699 582, 591?92 (Wis. 2005)). not only have seen that eyewitness identi?cations are not always as reliable as they appear, but we also have learned, from a scienti?c standpoint, why this is often the case.? M. The Court held that because of advancements in eyewitness identi?cation research it was ?able to recognize that such research is well settled, well supported, and in appropriate cases a perfectly proper subject for expert testimony.? Id. 12. 13. 14. 15. Expert testimony on eyewitness testimony is especially appropriate in cases like this one. In Lerma, ?[t]he only evidence of defendant?s guilt . . . [was] the eyewitness identi?cations made by [two witnesses. There [was] no physical evidence tying defendant to the crime, and defendant neither confessed nor made any other type of incriminating statement. In other words, the State?s case against defendant hangs 100% on the reliability of its eyewitness identi?cations.? Id. 26. Exactly the same is true in this case. Dr. Franklin is a renowned expert in human and eyewitness identi?cations. She is a professor of at Stony Brook University; she holds a from Stanford University; and she specializes in cognition, memory, and false memory. Ex. 22 (Franklin Report) at 1. Dr. Franklin regularly peer reviews and publishes articles in the field of eyewitness memory, and she has been quali?ed as an expert in hundreds of cases in jurisdictions throughout the United States. Id. Dr. Franklin?s complete CV is attached to her report. EX. (Franklin CV). In this case, Dr. Franklin has reviewed all of the circumstances of the various identi?cation procedures performed by Detective Guevara and his partners in this case, including the complete transcripts of People v. Thomas Sierra, police reports, and crime scene and identi?cation procedure photographs. In her report she will present scienti?c evidence that ?estimator variables? (those relating to the incident itself) and ?system variables? (those related to police activity during investigation and prosecution of the crime) render the ?identi?cations? of Sierra made by both Melendez and Rodriguez unreliable. Ex. 22 (Franklin Report) at 1. Dr. Franklin concludes that Petitioner?s case ?is characterized by a particularly comprehensive set of factors that the research literature has associated with ?awed 16. witness evidence.? Id. at 1. She opines that ?had Sierra been tried in recent years, his attorneys would likely have been allowed to educate the jury on some or all of these causes of error.? Id. In her report, Dr. Franklin comprehensively discusses the scienti?c factors relating to the incident?so called ?estimator variables??that show to a reasonable degree of scienti?c certainty that the eyewitness identi?cations of Melendez and Rodriguez were inaccurate, including but not limited to the following: a. Stranger identi?cations. Optimal laboratory tests reveal accurate eyewitness identi?cations of strangers occur at a rate between 50% and 70%. Melendez?s and Rodriguez?s identi?cations were of a person who was a stranger to them, decreasing the likelihood of an accurate identi?cation in optimal conditions. Id. at 2-3. h. Tendency to Choose. Presented with a lineup or photo array, research shows that a witness will choose the person who most closely matches their memory, even if the suspect is actually not present, increasing the chance of a false identi?cation. Id. at 2-3. Even absent coercion, Melendez and Rodriguez would have tended to select from lineups the person who most closely resembled the person they recalled from the night of the shooting. c. Short Duration of Exposure. Research shows that where a witness is exposed to a person for 12 seconds, false identifications occur at a rate between 80% and 90%. in Petitioner?s case, Melendez and Rodriguez most likely had far less than 12 seconds to actually observe the shooter. Research also shows that witnesses tend to overestimate the duration by traumatic events, which explains why Rodriguez estimated that he viewed the perpetrator for a minute. Most like, Melendez and Rodriguez had such insufficient exposure to the shooter that the probability of a false identi?cation is increased dramatically. Id. at 3-4. Partial Disguise. The shooter seen by Melendez and Rodriguez was obstructed by a hood over his head. Research shows that such an obstruction reduces the accuracy of an identi?cation by approximately 50% and increase false identi?cations by 50%. Id. at 5. Weapon Focus. Scienti?c analysis reveals that memory for a stranger?s face is impaired if a weapon is present at the time of the incident. As Dr. Franklin explains, ?Weapons capture attention, drawing cognitive processing away from the perpetrator?s face, even if the witness?s eyes are not directly pointed at the weapon.? Id. at 5. In this case, Dr. Franklin opines that ?much or most of the two eyewitnesses? exposure to the perpetrator occurred in an active shooter situation. Given classic ?ndings concerning weapon focus and attention capture, eyewitnesses Rodriguez and Melendez were at risk for identi?cation impairment.? Id. Number of Perpetrators. Dr. Franklin observes that there were three individuals in the car at the time of the shooting. In situations where three perpetrators are viewed in simulated crime scenes, witness accurately identi?ed one of the perpetrators only 30% of the time. Id. at 6. Poor Quality of Descriptions. Shortly after the shooting occurred, Melendez and Rodriguez were interviewed, and according to of?cers were only able to describe two male Latinos and one male African-American. This was the limit of the physical description immediately after the crime. Dr. Franklin opines that this low quality description is extremely important is assessing whether Melendez and Rodriguez were able to identify the actual perpetrator in later identi?cation procedures. Id. at 7. h. Forgetting Because of Belay. Dr. Franklin also reviews the research that shows that a witness?s ability to recognize a perpetrator declines by 21% after just four hours of delay, and it declines by 50% after a week. Other research shows that false identi?cations occur at a rate the same as correct identi?cation after 48 hours of delay. in this case, this provides strong reason to doubt Melendez?s and Rodriguez?s identi?cations because those identi?cations ?rst occurred days after the incident. Id. at 7-8. 17. Dr. Franklin?s report also discusses the scienti?c factors relating to the police investigation?so called ?system variables??that demonstrate that the eyewitness identi?cations of Melendez and Rodriguez were inaccurate, including but not limited to the following: 3. Exposure Effect. Dr. Franklin explains the extensive research demonstrating that repeated viewing of the same face, whether in photographs or lineups, causes an increased chance of wrongly identifying that face. Id. at 10. Increased exposure to the same face cause commitment effects, whereby witnesses come to more strongly believe their identi?cations. Id. Dr. Franklin opines that Rodriguez?s identi?cations were subject to these effects. Id. b. Identi?cation Administrator?s Knowledge of the Suspect. Dr. Franklin also explains the various ways that administrators of the identi?cation procedures in this case steered witnesses toward particular outcomes, reducing the accuracy of their identi?cations. Id. at 10-11. c. Non-Identi?cations. Dr. Franklin also discusses the importance of Melendez?s non-identi?cation of Sierra in a photo array, and she opines that this non- identi?cation is probative of the identi?cation of Sierra being mistaken. CONCLUSION 18. Dr. Franklin?s expert testimony explains the science of eyewitness identi?cation essential to the factual issues in this case. 19. For the reasons stated herein, Petitioner requests that this Court allow Petitioner to supplement his petition. 20. Petitioner further reserves the right to further supplement with additional evidence as investigation continues. Respect?illy Submitted, One of Petitioner?s Attorneys Anand Swaminathan Joshua Tepfer Steve Art Exoneration Project (Atty No. 44407) 311 N. Aberdeen St., 3ICE Floor Chicago, IL 60607 312-789-4955 I am a faculty member in the Department at Stony Brook University. I have a in from Stanford University (1989), and my areas of specialization are cognition, memory, and false memory. I have conducted research, taught courses, and trained undergraduate and graduate students at Stony Brook University since 1989. I am an active member of the Society, the American Society, and the Society for Applied Research in Memory and Cognition and present my work frequently to the research community. I am regularly asked to review articles submitted by research colleagues from around the world to the primary scienti?c journals in my ?eld. As part of my responsibilities as a researcher, author, supervisor, and reviewer, I am well-acquainted with current ?ndings in the ?eld of eyewitness memory. With regard to the criminal justice system, I have consulted as a memory and identi?cation expert in several hundred cases in New York State, Massachusetts, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Maryland, and Washington, DC, since 2008. I have reviewed about 500 pages of hearing and trial minutes from People Thomas Sierra and have viewed photos taken of the crime scene and identi?cation procedures as part of the police investigation. I understand that Sierra was found guilty of murder following the testimony of multiple witnesses in this case. Following my review of the relevant Witness testimony, I have volunteered my services to the Exoneration Project in support of its efforts to have the case formally revisited. Courts in the US. and the state of Illinois have become increasingly receptive to scienti?c ?ndings that demonstrate shortcomings and systematic biases in human perception, attention, memory, and judgment. This scienti?c literature has grown tremendously over the last several decades, relying on both lab-based research and data from real-world criminal cases, and it has consistently demonstrated the high risk of error in stranger identi?cation. It is only in recent years, well after Sierra?s conviction, that Illinois courts have consistently allowed jurors to be informed of such ?ndings. Research shows that jurors respond well to expert testimony concerning eyewitness memory, increasing their scrutiny of identi?cation evidence (Cutler Penrod, 1995; Cutler, Penrod, Dexter 1990) without disregarding witnesses? claims (Goodman Loftus, 1992). In contrast, jurors are inclined to believe witness testimony in the absence of an effective challenge to it, and to weight it heavily in their decisions, particularly testimony provided by witnesses who express high con?dence (Cutler, Penrod, Stuve, 1988; Leippe, 1980; Leippe, Manion, 1992; Lindsay, Wells, O?Connor, 1989; Luus Wells, 1994; Penrod Cutler, 1995; Read, Lindsay, Nicholls 1998). Research further shows that allowing jurors to hear direct and cross examination of experts is superior to brie?ng them on the frailties of eyewitness memory only as part of their charging instructions (Goodman Loftus, 1992). My review of People Sierra suggests that this case is characterized by a particularly comprehensive set of factors that the research literature has associated with ?awed witness evidence. Given the nature of the cases for which I have been allowed to provide expert testimony, my opinion is that, had Sierra been tried in recent years, his attorneys would likely have been allowed to educate the jury on some or all of these causes of error. Below I summarize the scienti?c ?ndings that I believe to be relevant to this case. Basic Principles Of Memory Encoding, Storage, and Retrieval More than 60% of laypeople subscribe to the belief that memory behaves like a video camera, faithfully recording details of a situation and storing them without distortion for later retrieval (Simons Chabris, 2011). This lay belief is particularly strong with regard to memory for details encountered under stress (Schmechel, O?Toole, Easterly, Loftus, 2006). In contrast, 100% of memory experts in a relatively recent survey disagreed with the characterization that memory behaves like a video camera (Simons Chabris, 2011), and a large majority of experts claim that stress acts to impair memory for detail (Da?ary?Kapur Penrod, 2009). Decades of research demonstrate that substantial distortion is possible at the time of initial encoding Bartlett, 1932; Kerstholt, Raaijrnakers, Valenton, 1992; Oliva Torralba, 2007; Warren, 1970). These errors typically persist during later stages of memory storage and retrieval. In addition, the weaker and less detailed the initial encoding of an object or event, the more susceptible the memory is to subsequent alteration, embellishment, and decay. Remembering is a reconstructive process, based on details that can be recovered at the time of retrieval (including those in error), combined with knowledge, expectations, goals, and additional information to which one has been exposed in the interim (Davis Follette, 2001; Hovland, Lumsdaine, Shef?eld, 1949; Johnson, Hashtroudi, Lindsay, 1993; Klauer Meiser, 2000; Kleider, Pezdek, Goldinger, Kirk, 2008; Meiser Broder, 2002; Tulving Thomson, 1973; Wixted, 2004). These individual details are generally not tagged in memory with information about their respective sources, and thus people generally do not have insight into the extent to which their memory may have been in?uenced (Charman Wells, 2008; Hovland et a1., 1949). Stranger Identification Memory has been studied for a large variety of content types, and recognition for unfamiliar faces is known to be among the poorest. Under optimal circumstances in laboratory-based research with good lighting, no threat, extended interaction, and short delay to test), correct identi?cations are typically between 50% and 70%, with false identi?cations typically 20%- 25%. Similar rates of Hits and False le have been demonstrated in real-world criminal identi?cation procedures as well, with suspect IDs treated for these purposes as Hits (Wright McDaid, 1996). Lab based perceptual matching tasks, which do not require memory, show that these errors are quite persistent and involve ?awed perceptual as well as ?awed memory processes (Bruce, Henderson, Greenwood, Hancock, Burton, Miller, 1999; Bruce, Henderson, Newman, Burton, 2001; Burton, Miller, Bruce, Hancock, Henderson, 2001; Henderson, Bruce, Burton, 2001; Megreya Burton, 2006, 2007). Such ?ndings are counterintuitive for the average layperson (Schmechel et a1., 2006), but they are consistent with what we know of human evolution (Dunbar, 1992). Until quite recently in evolutionary history, people lived in small kin-based groups and likely had rare contact with members of other groups. When they did encounter members of other groups, there was generally little need to remember speci?c individuals. Creating a detailed, stable representation of another person?s face is costly in terms of cognitive resources, and in the absence of adaptive pressures toward committing the nuances of new faces to memory, humans do not appear to have been well-adapted for it. Acquiring a stable memory representation for a novel face remains slow and unreliable. Poor baseline stranger identi?cation accuracy is relevant in the Sierra case because witnesses Jose Melendez and Alberto Rodriguez both stated that the perpetrator was a stranger. Tendency To Choose When presented with a photo array or lineup, witnesses tend to identify the alternative who most closely matches their memory of what the perpetrator looked like. Given reasonable candidates, there will likely be at least one suf?ciently close match, and even in target-absent situations (in which ?not there? is the correct answer), people show a tendency to make an identi?cation. Wells (1984) reported research in which witnesses were tested with either a 6-person target~ present lineup or a 5?person target?absent lineup (consisting of the 5 ?llers given to the ?rst group). The target-present group correctly identi?ed the target 54% of the time and identi?ed a ?ller 25% of the time (consistent with typical Hit and False ID rates in the literature). If the 54% Hit rate had occurred because of reliable memory for the perpetrator?s face, then 54% of the group that received the 5-person target-absent lineup should see that the target was not present and should therefore reject the lineup. Instead, 2/3rds of participants made a false identi?cation in the target-absent lineup. This bias to choose is consistently found in eyewitness ID research, and it demonstrates the common result of identi?cations being nearly as frequent in target-absent as in target-present situations. Speci?c Factors In?uencing Eyewitness Reliability In what follows, relevant factors will be divided into the categories of estimator variables (those related to the incident itself and to the eyewitnesses) and system variables (those related to the ensuing investigation and prosecution of the crime and typically associated with police activity). Nearly 80% of convictions that have been overturned based on DNA evidence included eyewitness identi?cation as a basis for the original conviction. Both estimator and system variables associated with eyewitness error are typically present in these cases. Many involved multiple witnesses who falsely identi?ed the innocent suspect with approximately one-third involving incorrect identi?cations by three or more witnesses). Estimator Variables Duration of Exposure. When identi?cations are made from memory, brief exposure at the time of initial encoding is associated with increased error rates (Shapiro Penrod, 1986). For example, false identi?cations of 80-90% have been found after an exposure duration of 12 seconds (Memon, Hope, Bull, 2003; see also Shapiro Penrod, 1986). This factor is relevant to the Sierra case because witnesses Melendez and Rodriguez apparently only had moments to view the shooter. My understanding is that their exposure to the shooter?s face can be reasonably estimated as lasting a fraction of the duration of the incident itself. Melendez testi?ed to the shooter?s car being in front of him just before the incident (trial testimony, p. E168). Rodriguez testi?ed to ducking at about the time of the second shot (trial testimony, p. E104), where he would no longer be able to see the shooter. Rodriguez (trial testimony, p. E104) and Melendez (trial testimony, p. E187) testi?ed that soon after shooting started, Melendez turned right (away from the shooter) and drove with the shooter?s car behind him. Given that the eyewitnesses testi?ed to 8-10 shots in total (pp. E105, E200), exposure to the shooter?s face appears to have constituted only a small fraction of the incident, with a hood covering the shooter?s head or face most of that time. Research has consistently shown that witnesses overestimate event duration, often by a factor of two or three, particularly when the event is unanticipated, stressful, and uncontrolled (Buckhout, Figueroa, Hoff, 1975; Cutler, Penrod, Martens, 1987; Loftus, Schooler, Boone, Kline, 1987) In Sierra, Rodriguez estimated one minute of exposure to the shooter (trial testimony, p. E102). My understanding is that this represents total exposure time, both from both before the gun was produced and after it was produced. Given research ?ndings in this area, there is signi?cant risk that estimate of one minute is a substantial overestimate, particularly given that exposure to the shooter?s face constituted only a fraction of the entire incident. Lighting. Not surprisingly, low levels of illumination signi?cantly diminish witnesses? ability to accurately observe and to later identify perpetrators Yarmey, 1986). In low lighting, humans rely on the scotopic visual system and the rod receptor of the retina. Rod cells are not well adapted for perceiving either ?ne detail or color. In addition, information extraction from low-luminance scenes is signi?cantly reduced in comparison to information extraction from well-lit scenes (Loftus, 1985). Finally, non-uniform lighting such as that produced by street lamps creates shadowing, which is known to alter the perception of face shape and to impair subsequent identi?cation (Braje Kersten Tarr Troje 1998; Johnston, Hill, Carman, 1992; Liu, Collin, Burton, Chaudhuri, 1999). In the Sierra case, the shooting took place at night, with ambient lighting coming from intermittent street lamps and from the monument area nearby. The shooter, however, was sitting in an enclosed car, and seeing inside may have been challenging if the luminance outside the windows exceeded that inside the car. Thus, the conditions for perceiving the shooter?s face were far from optimal. Angle of Exposure. Viewing a face at a non-optimal angle impairs the quality of memory for it. The opportunity for con?gural processing, encoding a coherent set of features with respect to each other, is a signi?cant predictor of the ability to uniquely identify a particular face Richler, Cheung, Gauthier, 2011). Non-optimal angles by their nature reduce such opportunities. Further errors arise when a face previously viewed at one angle is presented at a different angle during an identi?cation task (Hill, Akamatsu, 1997; Longmore, Lin, Young, 2008). My understanding is that during a signi?cant proportion of the time that eyewitnesses Rodriguez and Melendez had some opportunity to view the shooter, that view may have been largely at an angle that deviated substantially from an optimal viewpoint. Partial disguise. Clothing or other obstructions that impair a witness?s ability to View elements of another person?s face tend to not only reduce correct identi?cations (typically by about 50%) but also to increase false identi?cations (also typically by about Several individual studies have demonstrated this ?nding with various types of obstructing devices, including hats and other head coverings Cutler et al., 1987). Individually and in meta-analysis (Shapiro Penrod, 1986), this factor has emerged as a reliable means for impairing the reliability of identi?cations. Both eyewitnesses testi?ed to the shooter throwing a hood over his head at the beginning of the incident. Rodriguez stated that the hood covered most of the shooter?s hair trial minutes, p. E102). Melendez stated that the hood covered the shooter?s face (trial minutes, p. E196) and that he (Melendez) had been unable to see the shooter prior to the hood going up E197). Melendez further testi?ed that he ?knew that something was up? and that he began driving (turning right, away from the shooter?s car) when he saw the hood go up E205), which speaks to both the quality and duration of his exposure to the shooter. Weapon Focus. Two meta-analyses have shown that memory for a stranger?s face is impaired, both with regard to descriptions and identifications, if a weapon had been present at the time of the incident (Fawcett, Russell, Peace, Christie, 2011; Steblay, 1992). Weapons capture attention, drawing cognitive processing away from the perpetrator?s face, even if the witness?s eyes are not directly pointed at the weapon. Although face processing is impaired, the tendency to choose remains high, increasing the risk of false identi?cations (Carlson Carlson, 2012). Weapon focus effects have been demonstrated under a variety of scenarios and with a variety of threatening objects, most frequently guns Cutler et al., 1987; Kramer, Buckhout, Eugenio, 1990). The effect holds for real-world criminal cases as well as for lab-based ones (Fawcett et al., 2011). In the current case, much or most of the two eyewitnesses? exposure to the perpetrator occurred in an active shooter situation. Given classic ?ndings concerning weapon focus and attention capture, eyewitnesses Rodriguez and Melendez were at risk for identi?cation impairment. Stress. Independently of weapon presence, stressful circumstances are known to impair stranger identi?cations. In a meta?analysis combining data from 27 different studies conducted in multiple laboratories, using a variety of stress?induction techniques and a variety of methods for testing face memory, Deffenbacher, Bornstein, Penrod, McGorty (2004) found that IDs made for faces viewed under high stress were nearly as likely incorrect as correct Stress inductions in laboratory settings are limited, both by ethical restrictions and by practical limitations on creating believable threats in the lab. It is remarkable that performance suffers even under these limitations. But there are data from highly stressful military training exercises that demonstrate such impairments remain (and appear to increase) under high stress. Military personnel who had undergone a stressful 40-minute interrogation in a well-lit room were twice as likely the following day to make a false identi?cation of their interro gator and/or guard as they were to make a correct ID (Morgan, Hazlett, Doran, Garrett, Hoyt, Thomas, Baranoski, Southwick, 2004). With regard to identi?cations in criminal cases, Kuehn (1974) found that victims of relatively less violent crimes robbery) produce more detailed descriptions of their attackers than do victims of more violent, and arguably more stressful, crimes rape and assault). Rodriguez and Melendez witnessed the violent murder of a friend, and the perpetrator pursued them while continuing to ?re shots. This situation would be expected to produce a strong stress response, even for people who have had extensive experience with weapons and personal threat (Morgan et al., 2004). Flashbulb Memories. Highly emotional, personally salient events sometimes produce ?ashbulb memories, which are characterized by a very strong sense of detail, vividness, and con?dence (Brown Kulik, 1977). Several studies of accuracy and consistency of such flashbulb memories, however, demonstrate that they are subject to patterns of forgetting and distortion comparable to those for mundane memories (Hirst, Phelps, Buckner, et al., 2009; Talarico Rubin, 2003). The research clearly shows that ?ashbulb events are not ?burned into memory,? as rememberers often believe, but that they are subject to the ?aws and biases that impact memory as a whole. The most unique feature of ?ashbulb memories, then, appears to be their vivid subjective phenomenology rather than their extraordinary accuracy or consistency. Nevertheless, laypeople, including prospective jurors, commonly believe that ?the act of remembering a traumatic event is like a video recording in that one can recall details as if they had been imprinted or burned into one?s brain? (Schmechel et al., 2006). Without an expert who can correct jurors? erroneous beliefs, jurors are at risk of overestimating the credibility of testimony from witnesses who had experienced personally salient, highly emotional events. Number of Potential Perpetrators. The more faces encountered during an incident, the greater the division of attention and the less likely that suf?cient information extraction will occur for any of the individual faces (Loftus, 1985). Thus, increasing the number of potential target faces directly identi?cation performance (Clifford Hollin, 1981; DeCarlo, 2010; Megreya Burton, 2006; Shapiro Penrod, 1986). For example, observers who had seen three perpetrators in a simulated crime were only 30% accurate in subsequently identifying one of the perpetrators (Clifford Hollin, 198]), substantially reducing ID accuracy compared to a comparable situation with a single perpetrator. Similar results have been found in real world criminal cases such as bank robberies (Fahsing, Ask, Granhag, 2004). In the Sierra case, the eyewitnesses testi?ed to being aware of three people in the shooter?s car. Although it appears that there ultimately was only one attacker, Melendez and Rodriguez had reason to distribute their cognitive resources and attempt to monitor all three as potential threats. To the extent that they did, their ability to commit characteristics of the shooter to memory may have been further diminished. Descriptions. As explained earlier, post-event information is easily incorporated into memory, with poor ability to subsequently retrieve the original source of individual details. Because of this general principle (along with the principle of the forgetting curve to be discussed shortly), descriptions of a perpetrator prior to the introduction of suggestive input (including photos and comments by investigators) are generally more reliable than descriptions reported after such opportunities for tainting (Wells Quinlivan, 2009). In Sierra, the eyewitnesses underwent extensive interviews starting about 15 minutes after the shooting Rodriguez?s suppression hearing testimony, p. A20, and trial testimony, pp. E107, E134). According to Of?cer Trempe trial testimony, p. E61), the only immediate physical description was of two male Hispanics and one male Black (see also trial testimony, p. E190 and suppression hearing, p. A21). Rodriguez confirmed that this was the only physical description he was able to give during the initial 1 1/2 hours of interviews (trial testimony, p. E134). Similarly to Rodriguez, eyewitness Melendez testified that he could not initially describe the shooter in greater detail than as a ?Hispanic guy? (trial minutes, p. E237). Melendez further indicated that he did not perceive much more than that because ?the car had tint windows? E238). Such testimony from both eyewitnesses regarding the low quality description they could initially give, even when pressed by officers immediately after the incident, constitutes diagnostically relevant information about their quality of view and is predictive of their impaired ability to uniquely identify the actual perpetrator in a subsequent 1D task. One or both eyewitnesses described the shooter at some point as having hair ?pushed back.? From the testimony record, it was not clear Whether both eyewitnesses or only Rodriguez gave this description, Whether it was given when the eyewitnesses ?agged down the police officer (as indicated in the Judge?s decision) or only after the eyewitnesses arrived at the police station (as Rodriguez both disputed and agreed to on p. 135 of his trial testimony), or only following exposure to Sierra?s photo. Finally, it is not clear whether that description referred to a hair style or simply to the state of the shooter?s hair with a hood thrown on top of it. Thus, the value of this detail is uncertain. Forgetting Curve (Delay). As stated at the outset of this report, memory is typically incomplete and prone to error. in addition to this, irreversible forgetting sets in immediately after an event, with the steepest rate of loss occurring in the period immediately following exposure (Ebbinghaus, 1885/ 1913). A 2008 meta-analysis of 53 face memory studies con?rmed that memory strength decreases with delay (Bornstein, Deffenbacher, Penrod, McGorty, 2012). An experiment cited in the study reveals that participants? ability to identify a perpetrator declined by 21% just four hours after the incident. A week later, the participants had only about a 50% chance of being accurate. Other researchers have found false identifications to reach levels comparable to correct identi?cations Within 48 hours of initial exposure Egan, Pittner, Goldstein, 1977). This factor is relevant to both Melendez and Rodriguez because all ID procedures leading to identi?cations of the suspect occurred days after the incident. For example, Rodriguez?s ?rst identi?cation of Sierra was 2 days after the incident, and Melendez?s ?rst identi?cation of Sierra was nearly a week after the incident. The phenomenon of forgetting with delay is also relevant to Detective Guevara, who testi?ed to recalling speci?c details regarding a car he had incidentally observed in a previous occasion days before. The research ?ndings concerning memory and delay, combined with those of hindsight bias (to be discussed later), raise concern regarding the accuracy of Det. Guevara?s claims. Social Contagion. People in various roles can each serve as sources for memory distortion. In discussions of witnessed events, simple word choice regarding how fast two cars were going when they contacted vs. bumped vs. smashed -- each other) can have profound impact on an eyewitness?s memory for the event. In the above example, ?smashed? produces estimates of speed nearly 30% higher than does ?contacted,? as well as producing frequent false memories of broken glass (Loftus Palmer, 1974). Risk for these effects increase further to the extent that an investigator includes false detail that had been previously reported by one witness in questions that he or she poses to other witnesses. An estimated 60-85% of co-witnesses discuss the witnessed events, making social contagion of memory elements, including memory errors, quite common (Paterson Kemp, 2006; Skagerberg Wright, 2008). This increases the risk of errors that multiple witnesses report in common (French, Garry, Mori, 2001; Gabbert, Memon, Wright, 2006, 2007; Jack, Zydervelt, Zajac, 2014; Luus Wells, 1994; Memon Wright, 1999; Pasupathi, 2001; Roediger, Meade, Bergman, 2001; Schacter, 2001; Shaw, Garven, Wood, 1997; Skagerberg Wright, 2009). The risk of suggestibility of all types, including co-witness conformity (Gabbert, Memon, Allan, Wright, 2004), grows as details from the original memory fade (Hoffman, Granhag, See, Loftus, 2001). Flashbulb memories are by no means immune to such contagion effects (Brewin, Huntley, Whally, 2012). In fact, even highly trained military personnel are easily in?uenced by misinformation concerning a personally salient, emotional event, not only about incidental details, but also about weapon presence, the existence of prominent features of the target glasses), and the identity of the target himself (Morgan, Southwick, Steffian, Hazlett, Loftus, 2013) The nature of the relationship between co-witnesses can exacerbate risk for memory errors, in several ways. First, repeated interpersonal contact provides opportunities to rehearse memory details, increasing the correspondence between witnesses? memory reports. Second, with ?iendships and other close relationships come increased credibility assessments (French, Garry, Mori, 2001) and increased likelihood of accepting co-witness claims. Third, confusion between the experiences of self and other increases for close relationships (Mashek, Aron, Boncimino, 2003), in?ating the risk that one person?s recalled detail will later be remembered as one?s own previously recalled detail. Knowledge that another witness agrees with one?s reported memory or identi?cation tends to substantially increase one?s con?dence, whether or not the agreed upon information is accurate (Luus Wells, 1993). This in?ated con?dence has been found in turn to increase witness credibility assessment and the weighting of witness evidence in decision making by mock jurors (Cutler, Penrod, Stuve, 1988; Luus Wells, 1993). Social contagion may be relevant to the Sierra case. Eyewitnesses Rodriguez and Melendez were present together during and in the immediate aftermath of the shooting. It also appears trial testimony, p. E192) that they may have jointly responded to some questions and/or may have heard each other?s responses during some of the police interview procedures. Rodriguez and Melendez were friends, presumably giving them many opportunity to further discuss details of the case after the immediate investigation. System Variables The next sections will focus on variables associated with investigation activities and typically under varying degrees of control of law enforcement and/or criminal justice agents. Contagion From Authoritative Sources (Police). In addition to the risk of in?uence from a fellow eyewitness, people can be in?uenced by of?cers who hold beliefs about facts of the case Loftus Palmer, 1974; see also Payne, Toglia, Anastasi, 1994) or about the identity of the suspect g, Greathouse Kovera, 2009). This can take one or both of two common forms: an of?cer directly in?uencing multiple witnesses through suggestive questions or comments, and/or an of?cer putting comments or closed questions to a witness that were developed from answers given by a previous witness. No deliberate attempt to in?uence witnesses is necessary. On the contrary, these effects can be extremely dif?cult to avoid, but they can be responsible, at least in part, for what appears to be impressive agreement among co-witnesses. Furthermore, in?uences from co?witnesses and police are additive, with increased memory distortions for witnesses who experience input from both of these sources (Jack et al., 2014). Exposure/Familiarity Effects. Prior exposure to a face increases processing ?uency for it, which, if suf?ciently strong, can produce a subjective sense of familiarity. People are better at detecting this sense of familiarity than they are at determining its source. This forms the basis of exposure effects, such as mugshot exposure (Deffenbacher, Bornstein, Penrod, 2006), whereby the presentation of a new face following a target incident increases the likelihood that that new face will be later falsely identified as having been involved in the original incident. Exposure effects occur in real-world ID procedures for which witnesses have requested a second viewing of lineup members (Horry, Memon, Wright, and Milne, 2012; see also Steblay, Dietrich, Ryan, James, 2011). That is, when a witness has not made an identification after viewing all candidates but is presented with a second ?lap? through the set, the risk of an incorrect identi?cation increases. The likelihood of further identi?cations of the suspect (Deffenbacher et al., 2006), along with in?ated confidence in those IDs over time Steblay, Tix, Benson, 2013) increases as a function of prior exposures to the suspect, feedback, and opportunities to review incident details (Douglass Steblay, 2006; Odinot, Wolters, van Koppen, 2008). Furthermore, if the witness had identi?ed the innocent target on ?rst viewing him, additional commitment effects increase the likelihood of a subsequent identi?cation still further (Deffenbacher, Bernstein, Penrod, 2006). When such conditions follow a particularly stressful event, the false identi?cation rate is nearly 6 times as high as when no interpolated exposure had occurred (Morgan et al., 2013). In-court identi?cations are subject to these same principles of exposure effects and commitment effects, in addition to other factors that seriously challenge the reliability of an in?court 1D substantial delay; highly suggestive show-up procedure). In the Sierra case, Detective McMurry described eyewitness Rodriguez?s viewing of the photos during the initial identi?cation procedure, describing Rodriguez as going through the full set, then returning to the ?rst photo, setting the photos down, and reviewing the set a second time (suppression hearing, p. trial, p. F54). This is corroborated in Rodriguez?s own testimony (trial minutes, p. E118). Their testimony raises concerns regarding multiple laps through the photo set, comparable to circumstances that Horry et al. (2012) found to increase rates of false IDs in criminal investigations. Rodriguez reported having identified Sierra in a corporeal lineup administered approximately 5 days after selecting Sierra in the photo array (trial testimony, p. E112). This is consistent with both mugshot exposure and commitment effects. Furthermore, Rodriguez testi?ed to having viewed the photo array once again during a previous court proceeding (trial minutes, p. E137). There is some dispute in the testimony (trial minutes p. E232 vs. pp. F107-108) regarding whether Melendez was presented with a corporeal lineup and if so, whether and under what conditions he made an identi?cation. The reliability of any identi?cation he may have made was imperiled by exposure effects similar to those discussed above for Rodriguez. Administrator?s Knowledge of Suspect. Experimenter effects are by now well documented in research Rosenthal, 1976), illustrating the more general principle that beliefs or desires are easily communicated and can easily in?uence other people?s behavior, even in the absence of either party recognizing such in?uences (see also Greathouse Kovera, 2009). In his analysis of 161 DNA-based exonerations, University of Virginia Law School professor Brandon Garrett (2011) determined that 78% had involved police contamination of eyewitness identifications. In the lab, several studies have demonstrated a remarkable number of ways, both verbally and non-verbally, that people playing the role of 1D task administrators can steer witnesses toward the suspect (Clark, Brower, Rosenthal, Hicks, Moreland, 2013), even if they have been instructed to avoid doing so and even without awareness of doing so Greathouse Kovera, 2009). Even seemingly innocuous words and subtle cues -- pauses, gestures, hesitations, or smiles -- can in?uence a witness?s behavior (Charrnan, 2016; Greathouse 10 Kovera, 2009; Gurney, Vekaria, Hewlett, 2014), and even these subtle social cues can double or triple the rate of false IDs of innocent suspects over baseline levels (Alberts, Duncan, Wallace, Penrod, 2008; Greathouse Kovera, 2009). Thus, in the absence of blind administration, a suspect ID can carry substantial risk of having arisen as a product of witness steering. In fact, a meta-analysis of 345 studies across eight broad categories of behavioral research concluded that such risk is extremely high (Rosenthal Rubin, 1978). Findings in the use of non-blind administrators are relevant to both Rodriguez and Melendez. Det. Guevara was involved in naming Sierra as a suspect and so was not blind during the ID procedures he was involved in. Detective McMurray testi?ed that he, too, knew who the suspect was when visiting Rodriguez to administer the photo array (trial minutes, p. F68). Even more concerning, Melendez testi?ed to overt steering toward Sierra on p. E208, where he testi?ed that Det. Guevara had indicated he knew who the perpetrator was, and on p. E209-E210, where Melendez described Det. Guevara as having selectively held Sierra?s photo while the ?llers were on the table (trial testimony, pp. 209-210). Both eyewitnesses in the Sierra case testi?ed to undergoing an automobile identi?cation procedure of sorts. Drawing from an extensive research literature on poor and potentially suggestive identi?cation procedure methods, two elements of this procedure raise concerns. First, to the extent that it was a showup procedure, with the witnesses being asked to make a yes/no judgment regarding the one dark colored Buick Park Avenue in the parking lot, this situation increases the risk of a false ID because of a suggestive showup (Steblay, Dysart, Fulero, Lindsay, 2003). In fact, Melendez testi?ed that he was taken to the front of a particular car by Det. Guevera, who was not blind with regard to the ?suspect car,? and was asked to make a yes/no ID decision about it (trial minutes, pp. E216, E218). Second, my understanding is that the lot had other cars in it, varying in makes, models, shapes, sizes, and colors, constituting very poor matches to the car described by the eyewitnesses. It is unclear how many other cars were present in the lot, but a single ?dud? ?ller near the target in face ID tasks is known to substantially increase the risk of falsely identifying an innocent suspect (Fitzgerald, Price, Oriet, Charman, 2013). Identi?cation Procedure Comments and Instructions. Even seemingly innocuous comments made to witnesses prior to or during an ID procedure can substantially impact their behavior and subsequent memory. These include indications that the police have a suspect, any instruction encouraging the witness to choose someone (Malpass Devine, 1981), or an instruction to determine which of the choices was the perpetrator (Leippe, Eisenstadt, Rauch, 2008). Other comments or instructions known to increase the rate of false identi?cations include asking the witness ?Could that be him?? when the witness has narrowed consideration to a single candidate (Clark, Marshall, Rosenthal, 2009), encouraging a hesitating witness to ?take your time? (Clark et al., 2009), referring to the possibility that the witness may be ?unable? to make an identi?cation (implying that one of the choices is indeed the perpetrator, Clark et al., 2009), and stating that the perpetrator?s appearance may have changed (Austin, Zimmerman, Rhead, Almeida, Kovera, 2012). The use of double-blind identi?cation procedures, referred to in the preceding section, can make good headway toward reducing the risk of these in?uences. 11 In Sierra, eyewitness Rodriguez testi?ed to Det. Guevara?s statement, just before the photo ID procedure, ?that they probably got the guy? (suppression hearing, pp. trial, p. E139). Similarly, eyewitness Melendez testi?ed that Guevara had ?told me to point him out because he had reason to believe this was the guy? E208). Melendez also testi?ed that the instructions included a comment about ?see[ing] if I can identify the guy that did the shooting? (suppression hearing, p. see also McMurray?s hearing testimony, p. A3 7), consistent with suggestive instructions found to increase the risk of false IDs. Diagnosticity of In some cases, witnesses who are presented with ID procedures indicate that the perpetrator is not present. Several studies have shown that non-IDs of this sort carry probative value, occurring more often in target-absent situations than in target-present ones (Wells Lindsay, 1980; Clark Wells, 2008). That is, research demonstrates that non- identi?cations have probative value pointing toward innocence. This ?nding is relevant to eyewitness Melendez, who testi?ed that his original response to the photo array containing Sierra was a non-identification (trial minutes, pp. E207, E208), and that his subsequent identi?cation of Sierra followed suggestive or coercive instructions by Detective Guevara (pp. E207, E208). When presented with the defendant in court, Melendez testi?ed (minutes, p. E197) that he did not recognize Sierra to be the shooter. To the extent that the witness testimony is to be considered in this case, this non-identification of Sierra under the highly suggestive circumstances of a courtroom show-up, is informative. Both eyewitnesses were initially shown several hundred photographs from a mug book and did not identify anyone. If Sierra?s photo was in that set, then both eyewitnesses made non? identi?cations on their ?rst ID procedure containing the suspect. In contrast to the initial IDs that the eyewitnesses made of Sierra at 2 days and nearly 1 week after the incident, whatever memory they had of the shooter?s face would have had less time for decay and distortion at the time of this initial niugbook procedure. With regard to the car identi?cation procedure, I have referred to three factors that would be expected to bias the witnesses toward identifying the suspect?s car as the shooter?s. First, as stated earlier, if Det. Guevara had conducted this as a show-up, it would have been an inherently suggestive ID procedure. Second, the other cars around the Park Avenue may have produced a classic ?dud? effect, whereby Witnessess?s bias toward identifying the Park Avenue would be substantially increased over baseline levels Fitzgerald et al., 2013). Finally, Melendez stated (trial minutes, p. E214) that he and Rodriguez underwent this ID procedure together, creating the risk for social contagion effects (described earlier in this document). Despite these potential in?uences, Melendez responded that the shooter?s car was not present (pp. E214-215). Given the ?ndings regarding non?identi?cations, his non-identi?cation carries probative value indicative of innocence (Clark et al., 2008). Identification Latency. The time it takes a witness to make an identification is one of the most diagnostic postdictors of identi?cation reliability (Srnith, Lindsay, Pryke, 2000; Weber, Brewer, Wells, Semmler, Keast, 2004; Dunning Stern, 1994). Face recognition is a rapid, 12 automatic process (Besson, Barragan-Jason, Thorpe, Febre-Thorpe, Puma, Ceccaldi, Barbeau, 2017; Dunning Perretta, 2002). Thus, assuming there are no factors that would otherwise speed an identi?cation decision (such as extremely poor ?llers, suggestive steering, or exposure to the suspect in a previous ID procedure), the latency of an ID is negatively correlated with likelihood of accuracy. Researchers have generally found low accuracy overall for identi?cations that take 30 or more seconds to make Dunning Perretta, 2002; Weber et al., 2004). For example, Dunning Perretta (2002) reported accuracy to be 18% (where chance is approximately 17%) for latencies beyond 30 seconds. In Sierra, eyewitness Rodriguez testi?ed that it took him ?a couple minutes? to ID Sierra from his photograph (trial testimony, p. E111), despite the presence of several factors that would have been expected to create a fast, positive decision. Rodriguez later clari?ed E139) that he took five minutes and agreed that he had testi?ed in an earlier proceeding about having taken ten minutes? (suppression hearing, p. A11, trial p. E140). In addition, this extended decision time was accompanied by at least two laps through the photos, increasing the risk of a false ID based on mugshot exposure effects. Five days after making this initial ID, Rodriguez testi?ed to taking ?about a minute? to identify Sierra from a lineup (trial testimony, p. E113). Again, this long latency occurred despite the presence of factors non-blind administrator, recent exposure to Sierra in the photo array) that would be expected to produce a rapid ID. Confidence Diagnosticity and Confidence Malleability. Despite the fact that memory is subject to rapid and continued forgetting, eyewitness confidence for speci?c details often increases with time. This divergence of accuracy and con?dence is common and serves to lower the correlation between the two, thus lowering the probative value of witness certainty over time. Several factors contribute to increasing con?dence, including several factors discussed above. In addition, simple repeated exposure to, or repeated thinking about, a detail tends to increase memory strength and vividness, leading to strong subjective experience of authenticity even for incorrect details (Hastie et al., 1978; Hirst, Phelps, Buckner, et al., 2009; Odinot et al., 2009; Pezdek, Sperry, Owens, 2007; Shaw, 1996; Shaw Porter, 2015; Wells, Ferguson, Lindsay, 1981). With each retrieval, new interpretations and embellishments are likely to be incorporated into and reconsolidated with the memory (Dudai, 2006). Indeed, con?dence in inaccurate details that had been provided through post-event suggestion is as high on average as is con?dence in accurate details Payne et al., 1994). Con?dence malleability of this sort is dif?cult to avoid in the criminal justice system and can also be quite dif?cult to detect. First, a memory retrieved at any given time is often accompanied by a con?dent sense of having always ?known? that detail to be true Davis, Kemmelmeier, Follette, 2005; Hawkins Hastie, 1990). This hindsight bias re?ect can be quite compelling and is often accompanied by high confidence (Christensen-Szalanski Willham, 1991; Fischhoff, 1975; Hawkins Hastie, 1990; Hoffrage Pohl, 2003). As such, witnesses are poor gauges of the history of their own memories (see also Guilbault, Bryant, Brockway, Posavac, 2004), and subjective reports about earlier states of con?dence that are not supported with acceptable objective corroboration should be met with skepticism. In a dramatic demonstration 13 of this, Garrett (2010) reported that in 57% of the exoneration cases he reviewed, eyewitnesses had initially expressed equivocal con?dence in their identi?cations and later expressed certainty in court. The research concerning Witness con?dence, its potential to mislead jurors, and the circumstances under which it carries probative value have led to growing consensus in the research community that high con?dence expressed by witnesses can be indicative of reliability only under a very narrow range of circumstances. These include the following: Con?dence must be assessed at the time of the initial identi?cation, in the witness?s own words and without any feedback regarding the possible accuracy of the witness?s identi?cation response, Con?dence statements must be memorialized, verbatim, at the time they are expressed, and There must be no suggestive element present before or during the identi?cation that could in?uence the witness?s con?dence prior exposure to the suspect, administration by a non- blind agent, suggestive comments or non-verbal cues from an identi?cation procedure administrator, etc.). My understanding is that in Sierra, all of the above parameters were violated with regard to the eyewitnesses. Hence, the diagnostic value of a highly con?dent identi?cation made under these circumstances would be quite poor. In addition, the case against Sierra rested largely on memories for detail that Det. Guevara claimed he was able to recover after the passage substantial time. To the extent that Guevara?s recollection is subject to the classic principles governing human cognition, we would expect it to be vulnerable to effects of delay, hindsight, distortion in the direction of beliefs, and con?dence malleability. Trained Observers: Police. Several investigators have examined whether police constitute more reliable witnesses than do civilians. Findings do not consistently show superiority of police witnesses Kalteis, 2013; Smart, Berry, Rodriguez, 2014), though police sometimes show greater overcon?dence in their performance than do civilian witnesses Smart et al., 2014). Furthermore, police have been shown to take incomplete notes, particularly when they are aware of who the suspect is (Steblay, 2011), and to interpret ambiguous evidence as consistent with their prior beliefs (Charrnan, Kavetski, Mueller, 2017). Despite the above findings demonstrating substantial opportunity for distortion of evidence as a function of of?cers? cognitive processing, laypeople express the belief that police have superior abilities as witnesses (Schmechel et al., 2006). Detective Reynaldo Guevara served as a witness in the Sierra case, testifying that he developed Sierra as a suspect because of characteristics of a car he had seen with Sierra several days earlier. According to the research literature, there are reasons to be concerned about both the veracity of Det. Guevara?s memory for details and about jurors? assumptions of its veracity. 14 Commentary My review of Sierra leads me to conclude that there are a substantial number of factors characterizing the incident itself, as well as factors presented after the incident to both eyewitnesses that are known to substantially increase risk to eyewitness memory. Most importantly, these factors would on the whole create a bias both to identify Thomas Sierra as the shooter and to identify the Buick Park Avenue in the police station parking lot as the shooter?s car. I am aware of concerns in this case that one or more people who provided testimony may have deliberately misrepresented their memory. I developed this affidavit based on an assumption that all testimony was sincere. The relevant factors for purposes of this affidavit are the estimator and system variables described above. In my opinion as an expert, the conditions of the incident rendered the opportunity to encode a representation of the shooter?s face at the time of the incident to be poor. The system variables similarly indicate unusually high risk of systematically steering the witnesses toward identification of the defendant and his car, both with high confidence. 15 References Alberts, W., Penrod, 8., Wallace, B. Duncan, J. (July 2008). 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Journal of Applied 71(3), 363-370. 23 Nancy anklin, af?m?i tastier penalty of pazjury that have ?ubmi?ed the a?ac?ned af?davit {39118511}ng the case 9f Th?mas Sierra, angi :hai tin: af?davit m?em?s my undergianding {3f haw 311mm in eyewitness mamory regearsh appiy is) facts 9f this cage. Juiy 2:3, 2817 Alana}? Frankiin Date W943 Eggs? $15? I 7 243 Nancy J. Franklin Department of State University of New York Stony Brook, NY 11794-2500 631-632-7840 Education 1985 1989 BA. University of California, Santa Barbara Stanford Professional Appointments 1989-95 Assistant Professor, SUNY Stony Brook 1995- Associate Professor, SUNY Stony Brook Awards Honors 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996 Professor of the Year Dept.) 1992 Undergraduate Studies Recognition Award 1993 Divisional Award for Undergraduate Education 1994 Dean's Award and Fellowship for Untenured Faculty 1995 President's Award for Excellence in Teaching 1995 Chancellor's Award for Excellence in Teaching 1999 Hugh Cleland Memorial Distinguished Professor Award 2011 Award for Excellence in Community Service, Stony Brook University 2012 Supervised Ken Mutlu, Semi-Finalist in Intel National Science Competition 2015 Fellow, Association for Science Service General Editorial Board, EP: Learning, Memory, Cognition Grant reviews (NSF, AF OSR) Conference reviews (Cognitive Science) Manuscript reviews (Memory Cognition, Journal of Memory and Language, Cognitive JEP: General, JEP: Learning, Memory, Cognition, Memory, JEP: Human Perception and Performance, Perception Bulletin Review, Journal of Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Canadian Journal of Experimental Science, orschung, Discourse Processes, Journal of Applied Cognitive Journal of Applied Quarterly Journal of Experimental Invited Panelist. estijjzing and Consulting as an Expert in Eyewitness Identification Cases. Annual Meeting of the American Society, Atlanta, GA. (2016). Universng Executive Of?cer, Arts Sciences Academic Judiciary Chair, President?s/Chancellor?s Awards for Excellence in Scholarship Creative Activities Chair, SUNY SB Diversity Committee Chair, President?s Selection Committee for Excellence in Teaching Chair, University Concerts Committee Board of Directors, Faculty Student Association Board of Directors, Ombuds Office Advisory Board, SBU School of Journalism President's Advisory Council on Diversity and Af?rmative Action Stony Brook Southampton Task Force Steering Committee, Long Island Conference School of Medicine Curriculum Committee Search Committee, Communications Director, College of Arts Sciences Emcee, TEDXSBU Department Representative to University and Arts Sciences Senates Department Cognitive/ Experimental Area Head Advisor, Psi Chi Honors Society Director, Masters Program Publications Gogol, W. C., Loomis, J. M., Newman, N. ., Sharkey, T. J. (1985). Agreement between indirect measures of perceived distance. Perception 3 7, 17-27. Franklin, N., Bower, G. H. (1988). Retrieving actions from goal hierarchies. Bulletin of the Society, 26, 15-18. Franklin, N., Tversky, B. (1990). Searching imagined environments. Journal of Experimental General, 119, 63-76. Bryant, D. ., Tversky, B., Franklin, N. (1992). Internal and external spatial frameworks for representing described scenes. Journal of Memory and Language, 31, 74-98. Franklin, N. (1992). Spatial representation for described environments. Geoforum, 23, 165- 1 74. Franklin, N., Tversky, B, Coon, V. (1992). Switching points of View in spatial mental models. Memory Cognition, 20, 507-518. Franklin, N. (June 1992). Inquiring into the SRS: Commentary on Bryant on Space. PSYCOLOQUY 3(40). Tversky, B., Franklin, N., Taylor, H. A., Bryant, D. J. (1994). Spatial mental models from descriptions. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 45, 656-668. Franklin, N., Henkel, L., Zangas, T. (1995). Parsing surrounding space into regions. Memory Cognition, 23, 397-407. Franklin, N. (1996). Language as a means of constructing and conveying cognitive maps. In J. Portugali The construction of cognitive maps. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. pp. 275?295. Franklin, N., Federico, T. (1997). Representing described spatial and temporal situations in memory. In Proceedings, Workshop on Language and Space. pp. 14-26. Providence, RI. Radvansky, G. A., Zwaan, R., Federico, T., Franklin, N. (1998). Retrieval from temporally organized situation models. Journal of Experimental LearningMemory, Cognition, 24, 1224?1237. Henkel, L., Franklin, N. (1998). Reality monitoring of physically similar and conceptually related objects. Memory Cognition, 26, 659-673. Henkel, L., Franklin, N. (1998). Comments on Mumane Bayen?s "Measuring memory for source: Some theoretical assumptions and technical limitations." Memory &C0gnition, 26, 678-680. Federico, T., Franklin, N. (1998). Long-term spatial representations ?om pictorial and textual input. In Proceedings, Conference on Spatial Information Theory. New York: Springer- Verlag. pp. 261-278. Franklin, N. (1999). Discovering study guide. New York: Addison Wesley Longman. Franklin, N. (1999). Discovering faculty guide. New York: Addison Wesley Longman. Tversky, R, Morrison, J. B., Franklin, N., Bryant, D. J. (1999). Three spaces of Spatial cognition. Professional Geographer, 51, 516-524. Franklin, N. (1999). The continued broadening of the window on the mind. Cahiers de Cognitive, 18, 509-521. Henkel, L. A., Franklin, N., Johnson, M. K. (2000). Cross-modal source monitoring confusions between perceived and imagined events. Journal of Experimental Learning, Memory, Cognition, 26, 321-335. Graber, M., Franklin, N., Gordon, R. R. (2002). Reducing diagnostic errors in medicine -- What's the goal? Academic Medicine, 77, 981?992. Franklin, N., Federico, T. (2002). Organization of temporal situations. In K. R. Coventry and P. Olivier (Eds) Spatial language: Cognitive and computational perspectives. Kluwer Academic Publishers. Dordrecht: The Netherlands. pp. 103?120. Gordon, R. Franklin, N. (2003). Cognitive underpinnings to Diagnostic Error: Reply to Croskerry. Academic Medicine, 78, 782. Geraci, L., Franklin, N. (2004). The in?uence of linguistic labels on source- monitoring decisions. Memory, 12, 571-585. Franklin, N. (2004). Discovering study guide. New York: Addison Wesley Longman. Franklin, N. (2004). Discovering faculty guide. New York: Addison Wesley Longman. Gordon, R. R., Franklin, N., Beck, J. L. (2005). Wishful Thinking In Source Monitoring. Memory Cognition, 33(3), 418?429. Graber, M., Franklin, N., Gordon, R. (2005). Diagnostic Error In Internal Medicine. Archives of Internal Medicine, 165, 1493-1499. Franklin, N. (2006). The Social Dynamics of Power and Cooperation in the Wizarding World. In N. Mulholland The 0f Harry Potter. Dallas, BenBella Books. Franklin, N. (2007). House calls: Why are they better than everyone else's? In L. Wilson House Unauthorized: Vasculitis, Clinic Duty, and Bad Bedside Manner. Dallas, Tx: BenBella Books. Gordon, R. R., Gerrig, R. ., Franklin, N. (2009). Qualitative Characteristics of Memories for Reality, Imagination, and Fiction. Discourse Processes,46, 70-91. Barber, S. A., Gordon, R. R., Franklin, N. (2009). Memory facilitation and wishful thinking in self-referential situations. Memory Cognition, 3 7, 434-446. Barber, S. J., Franklin, N., Naka, M., Yoshirnura, H. (2010). Higher social intelligence can impair source monitoring memory. Journal of Experimental Learning, Memory, Cognition, 36(2), 545-551. Moyer, A., Franklin, N. (2011). Strengthening the educational value of participation in research as part of a department subject pool. Journal of Empirical Research in Human Research Ethics, 75-82. Franklin, N. (2012). Representing space: A look back. IQUES. Franklin, N., Greenstein, M. (2013). A brief guide to factors that commonly in?uence identi?cation and memory for criminal events. New York State Bar Association Journal, 2, 11- 1 9. Franklin, N. (2016). Management of Problematic Memories in Vulnerable Populations: Science or Art? 61(2). Greenstein, M. J., Franklin, N., Martins, M., Sewack, C., Meier, M. (2016). When Anticipation Beats Accuracy: Threat Alters Memory For Dynamic Scenes. Memory Cognition, 44, 633-649. Greenstein, M. J., Franklin, N., Klug, J. (2016). In-Group vs. out?group source memory: Spontaneously inferred features can both facilitate and impair source monitoring. Experimental 63(3), 150-158. Franklin, N., Greenstein, M. (In Press). Nothing but the truth? An assessment of narrative goals in the criminal justice system. In H.A. Taylor I. M. Zacks, Representations in mind and world. Hove, England: Press. pp. 24?41 Greenstein, M. J., Franklin, N. Anger and the misinformation effect. In Preparation. Greenstein, M. J., Franklin, N. Anger In Lineup Identi?cation And Creation. Under Revision. Greenstein, M. ., Cruz, M., Franklin, N. Does Suspense Increase or Decrease Vulnerability to Misinforrnation? In Preparation. Swets, 8., Franklin, N., Viccellio, A. Interruptions In The Emergency Room. In Preparation. Franklin, N., Swets., B., Viccellio, A. How interruptions can enhance complex task performance. In Preparation. Franklin, N., Greenstein, M. J., Ensor, K. Expert survey on eyewitness memory: Some updates and clari?cations. In Preparation. Franklin, N., Hau, C.-L. V., Beck, 1. L., Sylvester, P., Belazi, A. Familiarity matching as a strategy for determining source. In Preparation. Paper Presentations and Invited Talks Since 1993 Franklin, N. (1993). Parsing surrounding space. Colloquium, New York University. Henkel, L., Franklin, N. (1994). Reality monitoring confusions for physically similar and semantically related memories. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Association, Providence. Li, L., Franklin, N. (1994). Indirect tasks and implicit knowledge about falling trajectories. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Association, Providence. Li, L., Franklin, N. (1994). Animation and perceptual knowledge about projectile motion. Paper presented at the Workshop on Object Perception and Memory (OPAM-94), St. Louis. Henkel, L. A., Franklin, N. (1994). Reality monitoring confusions as a function of physical and semantic similarity. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society, St. Louis. Franklin, N. (1995). Mental models of time? Paper presented at the annual Winter Text Conference, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Franklin, N., Li, L. (1995). Representational momentum and mental extrapolation for parabolic motion. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Association, Boston. Federico, T., Franklin, N. (1995). Mental models involving space and time. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Eastern Association, Boston. Henkel, L. A., Franklin, N. (1995). Reality monitoring across modalities. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Los Angeles. Federico, T., Franklin, N. (1996). Long-term representation of spatial mental models. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Chicago. Radvansky, G. A., Zwaan, R. A., Franklin, N., Federico, T. (1996). Retrieval from time- based situation models. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Chicago. Franklin, N., Federico, T. (1997). Representing described spatial and temporal situations in memory. Paper presented at the Workshop on Language and Space, Providence, RI. Franklin, N., Henkel, L. A. (1997). Parsing space around another observer. Paper presented at the Roma Workshop on Spatial Cognition, Rome, Italy. Federico, T., Franklin, N. (1997). Medium of input and long-term representations of Space. Paper presented at the annual Conference on Spatial Information Theory, Laurel Highlands, PA. Franklin, N. (1998). Situationiness. Paper presented at the annual Winter Text Conference, Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Geraci, L., Franklin, N. (1998). The role of identity and linguistic label in reality monitoring. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Dallas. Henkel, L. A., Johnson, M. K., Franklin, N. (1998). How we access memories affects false memory rates. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Dallas. Franklin, N. (1999). False memories and source monitoring. Invited Colloquium, Austin College, Sherman, TX. Gordon, R., Franklin, N. (1999). Wishful thinking and source monitoring. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Los Angeles. Gordon, R., Franklin, N. (2001). Comparing memory characteristics of real, imaginary, and ?ctional events. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Orlando. Gordon, R., Franklin, N. (2002). Locus of the Wishful thinking effect in source monitoring. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Kansas City. Gordon, R., Franklin, N., Beck, J. (2003). The role of retrieval in the wishful thinking effect. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Society, Vancouver, Canada. Franklin, N. (2004). Where memories come from: Rational and irrational biases in source monitoring. Invited colloquium, UC Santa Barbara. Klug, ., Franklin, N. (2004). Inferred features as discriminative cues in source monitoring. Poster presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society, Minneapolis, MN. Franklin, N. (2005). What the errors tell us about how accurate source decisions usually are. Paper presented as part of a symposium at the Annual Meeting of the Midwestern Association, Chicago, IL. Franklin, N., Hau, C.-L. V, Beck, J. L., Sylvester, P. C. (2005). Familiarity matching in source monitoring. Paper presented at Society Annual Meeting, Toronto. Franklin, N. (2006). Source decisions for memories people care about. Paper presented at the International Conference on Memory, Sydney. Barber, 8., Gordon, R., Franklin, N. (2007). Self-relevance: Facilitation and distortion in source memory. Poster presented at the annual meeting of the Association for Science, Washington, D. C. Franklin, N., Barber, S. ., Allen, S., Gordon, R. (2007). Emotional Aspects of Source Monitoring. Paper presented at the Society Annual Meeting, Long Beach. Franklin, N. (2008). Eyewitness Memory and Identification. Invited address, Continuing Legal Education Workshop for the Queens County Bar Association, New York. Barber, S. ., Franklin, N., Naka, M., Yoshimura, H. (2008). Higher social intelligence can impair memory. Paper presented at the Society Annual Meeting, Chicago. Naka, M., Ishizaki, C., Yamamsaki, Y., Barber, J., Franklin, N. (2009). Re?ecting upon a victim's feelings. Paper presented at the Society Annual Meeting, Boston. Greenstein, M., Franklin, N. (2009). Anger's impact on a lineup recognition task. Poster presented at the Society Annual Meeting, Boston. Swets, 8., Franklin, N., Viccellio, A. (2009). Interruptions in the Emergency Room. Poster presented at the Society Annual Meeting, Boston. Franklin, N. (2010). Eyewitness memory and identi?cation. Invited Colloquium, Legal Aid Society, New York, NY. Franklin, N. (2010). Limitations of eyewitness memory and the effects on identi?cation. Invited Colloquium, New York State Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers, Brooklyn, NY. Franklin, N., Swets, 8., Ring, L., Wright, J., Greenstein, M., Viccellio, A., Plastaras, B. (2011). Those Irritating Interruptions And Why We Can?t Live Without Them. Presented at the Converging Science Summit To Advance Healthcare, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY. [Winner, Best Scienti?c Paper.] Franklin, N., Swets, 8., Ring, L., Wright, 1., Greenstein, M., Viccellio, A., Plastaras, B. (2011). The Bene?ts of Interruption on Complex Task Performance. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society, Seattle, WA. Franklin, N. (2011). Where Cognition Meets Criminal Law. Invited lecture on eyewitness testimony and juror decision making, Columbia Law School. Greenstein, M., Franklin, N., Martins, M., Maier, M. (2011). Threat Extends Implied Motion In Remembered Scenes. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society, Seattle, WA. Franklin, N. (2011). What Memory Research Can Tell Us About The Reliability Of Eyewitness Evidence. Continuing Legal Education Workshop for New York State Defenders Association, Brockport, NY. Cruz, M. 13., Franklin, N., Greenstein, M. (2012). Does the feeling of suspense make you more vulnerable to misinformation? Presented at the Annual Conference of the Eastern Association, Philadelphia. Franklin, N., Greenstein, M. (2012). Identifying While Angry. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Society, San Juan, Puerto Rico. Franklin, N. (2012). Where Cognition Meets Criminal Law. Invited lecture on eyewitness testimony and juror decision making, Columbia Law School. Franklin, N. (2013). How Anger Impacts Lineup Fairness and Identi?cation Decisions. Colloquium at John Jay College of Criminal Justice. Greenstein, M., Franklin, N., Klug, I. (2013). Memory Accuracy for People depends on Whether and When You Can Identify with Them. Paper presented at Eastern Association Meeting, New York, NY. Franklin, N. (2013). Memory and Task Performance after Interruption. Keynote address given at the North Shore LIJ Conference on Nursing, Long Island, NY. Greenstein, M., Franklin, N. (2013). Lineup Creation and Anger. Paper presented at the Meeting of the Society on Applied Research in Memory and Cognition, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. Greenstein, M., Franklin, N. (2013). Anger and memory: Misleading People is Easy When They are Mad. Poster presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society, Toronto. Franklin, N. (March 18, 2014). Where Cognition Meets Criminal Law: Attention, Memory, and Decision Making. Invited colloquium, New York County Defender Services, New York, NY. Greenstein, M., Franklin, N., Martins, Sewack, C., Maier, M. (2014). Is anticipation more important than accuracy? Threat alters memory for implied motion. Paper presented at Annual Meeting of the Eastern Association, March 2014, Boston. Science on Tap. Interviewed by School of Journalism professor Steve Reiner (formerly of 60 Minutes) on Eyewitness Memory. Filmed for broadcast by the Alan Alda Center for Communicating Science, March 24, 2014. Franklin, N. (June, 2014). How Research In Human Cognition Can Improve Our Criminal Justice System. Invited talk, Stony Brook Foundation Board of Trustees, New York, NY. Harman, B., Franklin, N. (2014). Exaggeration Contagion: Do Eyewitnesses Adopt Each Other?s Reporting Style? Annual Meeting of the Society, Long Beach, CA. Harman, B., Franklin, N. (2015). 100 vs. 10,000 Matches To An Eyewitness?s Description: Are Potential Jurors Sensitive to Base Rates? Annual Meeting of the American Society, San Diego, CA. Franklin, N. (2015). Cognition In The Courtroom. Invited talk, Stony Brook Council, Stony Brook, NY. Franklin, N. (2015). Representations of Criminal Events. Invited talk, In Honor Of Professor Barbara Tversky, Chicago, IL. Franklin, N., Miller, S. (2015). Emotion Can Change The Boundary Extension Effect. Annual Meeting of the Society, Chicago, IL. Franklin, N. (2015). The Minds of Diagnosticians and Practitioners: Cognition and Better Medicine. Grand Rounds, Department of Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY. Franklin, N. (2016). Cognition in the Courtroom. Invited Colloquium, Stony Brook Alumni Association, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY. Franklin, N. (2016). Some Inconvenient Truths About Eyewitness Identi?cation and False Confessions. Invited Continuing Legal Education Colloquium, Queens Law Associates, Queens, NY. Franklin, N. (2016). Invited Panelist. esti?zing and Consulting as an Expert in Eyewitness Identi?cation Cases. Pro-conference workshop, Annual Meeting of the American Society, Atlanta, GA. Franklin, N. (2016). And The Law. Keynote Address, 2016 Law and Civic Education Summer Institute. Long Island, NY. Franklin, N. (2016). Who Would Confess To A Murder They Didn?t Commit? Maybe You. TEDXSBU, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY. Franklin, N. (2017). The of Eyewitness Testimony. Cross To Kill Seminar. Meeting of the New York State Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. New York, NY. Franklin, N. (2017). Eyewitness Memory ID Research. National Forensic College, National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. New York, NY. Fundin 1990 Cognitive Science GRI Lab. SUNY SB Grant for Computing and Communications). $400. Susan Brennan) 1992-95 MULTI: Multimedia User-interface Laboratory for Teaching and Instructional Material Development. NSF, $210,000. (PI: Arie Kaufman; Philip Lewis, Prateek Mishra, Gerhard Schloss, Susan Brennan). 1993 -96 AIM: Applied Internships for Minorities. Apple Computer, Inc. Support for tuition, stipend, travel, equipment, for three Master's students and their advisers. $166,529. (Co- PIs: Susan Brennan, Arthur Samuel, Philip Lewis, Wendy Katkin). 1993 Ethics in REU. NSF. $7,617. Mark Schneider, Ivan Chase). 1994 Ethics in REU. NSF. $5,958. Albert Cover, Ivan Chase). 1994-97 Multimedia and User Interface Laboratory. NSF, $75,000. (PI: Arie Kaufman; Co?PIs:Susan Brennan, Prateek Mishra, Gerhard Schloss). 1999 Use of Distinctive Features in Reality Monitoring. Psi Chi. 2001-02 Diagnostic Error In Medicine. National Patient Safety Foundation. $100,000. (PI, Mark Graber, VAMC Northport). 2008-2010 Interruptions in the Emergency Room. James S. Todd Memorial Research Grant, National Patient Safety Foundation. $99,964. (PI: Nancy Franklin). 2012-2013 Management of distractions and interruptions during nursing care in ICU, National Patient Safety Foundation, $100,000. (Consulting Scientist; PI: Mary Elizabeth Happ) Expert Testimony Jurisdictions in which testimony regarding eyewitness identi?cation and memory has been admitted include several counties in New York State, as well as Massachusetts and Washington, D. C.