January 1, 2018 Utah Water Supply Outlook Report Smith and Morehouse SNOTEL See y'all later… been a great career, Randy Julander Photo by – Kent Sutcliffe STATE OF UTAH GENERAL OUTLOOK January 1, 2018 SUMMARY Wow, what a crummy way to start the 2018 water year! Snowpacks are below abysmal! In fact, in Southern Utah they are below the 1977 water year that is remembered by many as the year with no snow. The 1977 water year was one of the worst snowpack and runoff years in recent history and any duplication of that debacle would be good to avoid. That said, the train wreck is on its way – statistically if you are less than 75% of normal on January 1, there is only about a 20% chance of getting back to average by April 1, and the condition prevailing in southern Utah isn’t even remotely close to 75% right now. Seventy five percent in southern Utah would be awesome given current conditions of about 5% to 35% of normal. Given the present La Nina conditions, where the tendency is for southern Utah to go dry, another nail is driven into that condition coffin. There is always a chance that conditions in southern Utah might reverse, but just not one that I would bet on. So, for all areas south of Provo (essentially), hope for better but prepare for a really bad runoff year as we will be primarily utilizing what we have in reservoir storage. Well, with that rotten tomato off the porch, let’s wander up to northern Utah where snowpacks are much larger, relative to the south (larger in the sense that they are not in the single digit percent-of-average range). Snowpacks in Northern Utah range from about 50% to 85% of normal, which for the most part, is bad but compared to the south, looks great. The higher percent of normal areas are basically the Bear River and the north slope of the Uintas, with the remainder closer to the 50%-60% range. So, basically the entire state has far below normal conditions with only a remote chance of getting back to average. Every day that goes by without a storm puts us deeper in the hole with less probability of recovery. Water managers should be developing strategies to deal with streamflows that could reach record low levels. And on that sad water supply note, this will be the last time I write a water supply outlook report; 27 years of writing them here at Snow Survey and 7 before that at the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center is probably sufficient for any one individual. It has been a wonderful career working with the Water Users of Utah – a finer group of people could not be found. I wish you all the best and hopefully this year will turn around with many huge storms to come. Please correspond with Dr. Troy Brosten for questions and water supply information (385-285-3114). Randy Julander. SNOWPACK Snowpacks are below normal across the entire state. In Southern Utah, they are in many cases below those of 1977, an infamous drought year of memory. Basically everything south of Nephi is in the 5% to 20% of normal range. Having just spent a few days hunting in the Beaver area, one can drive to the 10,000 foot level in a sedan, and as you look at the vistas in any direction– there are no snow covered peaks and mountains to be seen! It is dreadful. Northern Utah is comparatively in much better shape though still much below normal. The Bear River and the north slope of the Uinta’s are in the 80% range with the Uinta Basin, Provo and Weber in the 50% to 60% range. Who knew that 50% of normal could possibly look good compared to southern Utah? PRECIPITATION December precipitation across the state was well below normal ranging from 15% across southern Utah to near 80% of average in the north. This brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 51% of average. This is exceptionally dry, more so in the south, a little better in the north, coincident to La Nina conditions. RESERVOIRS Reservoir storage is in excellent condition at 72% of capacity statewide compared to 49% of capacity last year. Given current streamflow expectations, most areas will be heavily dependent on reservoir storage this next agricultural season. There are areas of concern, primarily Sevier Bridge at 22% of capacity, Gunnison Reservoir which is empty, Mill Site and Steinaker which are both having construction done. Water Users dependent on these systems will likely face shortages. STREAMFLOW Streamflow forecasts mirror snowpack conditions across the state with many areas in southern Utah forecast in the single digit range. Water managers should be aware that record low flows are possible across large areas of southern Utah and prepare accordingly. In northern Utah, conditions are better although still much below to below average. Most forecasts are in the 60% to 90% range. The remainder of winter climate forecasts from the National Climate Prediction center show below normal precipitation for southern Utah and equal chances for northern Utah, adding urgency for long range drought preparations across the state. / Bear 79% & vo Pro dan Jor % 50 pe r S 24% evier Tooele 36% Lower Sevie r 44% San P 34% itch We b Og e r & d en 60% Duchesne 52% Price & San Rafael 44% Dirty Devil 37% Up Beaver 17% Northeastern Uinta 65% Southeastern Utah 20% Southwestern Utah 14% Escalante 15% Statewide Precipitation As of January 1, 2018: 51% of Normal Precipitation 54% of Normal Precipitation Last Month % of Normal Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 0 10 20 40 60 80 100 Miles 130 - 149% > 150% / Bear 85% We b Og e r & d en 63% pe r S 19% evier San P 14% itch Price & San Rafael 19% Dirty Devil 18% Up Beaver 7% Duchesne 58% & vo Pro dan Jor % 51 Tooele 33% Lower Sevie r 43% Northeastern Uinta 80% Southwestern Utah 8% Escalante 4% Southeastern Utah 12% Statewide Snow Water Equivalent % of Normal Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA As of January 1, 2018: 51% of Normal Snow Water Equivalent < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 0 10 20 40 60 80 100 Miles 130 - 149% > 150% Statewide Utah January 1, 2018 Snowpack in Utah is much below normal at 51% of normal, compared to 131% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 54%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 51% of average. Soil moisture is at 40% compared to 61% last year. Reservoir storage is at 72% of capacity, compared to 49% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 4% to 92% of average. Reservoir Storage Statewide Bear River Basin Duchesne Basin Lower Sevier Price Basin Provo Basin Southwestern Utah Upper Sevier Weber & Ogden Basins Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Bear River Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Bear River Basin is below normal at 85% of normal, compared to 125% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 69%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 79% of average. Soil moisture is at 69% compared to 76% last year. Reservoir storage is at 79% of capacity, compared to 38% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 62% to 92% of average. The surface water supply index is 79% for the Bear River, 46% for the Woodruff Narrows, 48% for the Little Bear. Reservoir Storage BEAR LAKE HYRUM PORCUPINE WOODRUFF CREEK WOODRUFF NARROWS Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:17 PM Bear River Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Bear River Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast 70% 50% 30% % Avg (KAF) (KAF) (KAF) Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL APR-SEP 48 54 75 83 92 102 82% 83% 110 121 136 149 112 123 APR-JUL APR-SEP 7.6 11.7 60 67 95 105 79% 82% 130 143 182 198 121 128 APR-JUL 0.3 1.44 2.8 74% 4.2 6.2 3.8 APR-JUL APR-SEP 45 54 66 78 81 95 91% 91% 95 111 117 136 89 104 FEB-JUL FEB-SEP APR-JUL APR-SEP 2.2 9.6 5.5 8.2 108 117 78 91 180 197 145 166 84% 82% 79% 81% 250 275 210 240 360 395 310 350 215 240 183 205 APR-JUL 1.35 15.9 28 62% 41 59 45 APR-JUL 52 82 102 92% 122 152 111 APR-JUL 13.6 27 35 81% 44 57 43 Bear R nr UT-WY State Line Bear R ab Resv nr Woodruff Big Ck nr Randolph Smiths Fk nr Border Bear R bl Stewart Dam Little Bear at Paradise Logan R nr Logan Blacksmith Fk nr Hyrum 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Bear Lake Hyrum Reservoir Porcupine Reservoir Woodruff Creek Woodruff Narrows Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Upper Bear Middle Bear Lower Bear Logan River Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 1035.5 9.9 10.5 1.5 46.0 1103.4 5 # of Sites 459.1 9.6 5.4 1.8 46.4 522.4 5 % Median 3 7 3 7 95% 79% 65% 91% Average (KAF) 580.6 10.1 6.5 2.1 27.3 626.6 5 Last Year % Median 134% 125% 117% 126% Capacity (KAF) 1302.0 15.3 11.3 4.0 57.3 1389.9 5 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Bear River * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 1035.51 145.00 1180.51 79 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Bear River Surface Water Supply Index 1800 1600 1400 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) 2.46 Years with similiar SWSI 00, 82, 97, 85 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Little Bear * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 9.86 28.00 37.86 48 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Little Bear Surface Water Supply Index 140 120 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 100 80 60 40 20 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -0.15 Years with similiar SWSI 94, 10, 16, 08 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Woodruff Narrows * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 46.01 92.00 138.01 46 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Woodruff Narrows Surface Water Supply Index 300 250 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 200 150 100 50 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -0.32 Years with similiar SWSI 81, 07, 08, 06 / 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Bear River Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 85% of Normal SWE 79% of Normal Precipitation 69% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 69% Saturation Soil Moisture 79% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Weber & Ogden River Basins January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Weber & Ogden River Basins is much below normal at 63% of normal, compared to 123% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 64%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 60% of average. Soil moisture is at 61% compared to 70% last year. Reservoir storage is at 73% of capacity, compared to 57% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 59% to 79% of average. The surface water supply index is 49% for the Ogden River, 54% for the Weber River. Reservoir Storage CAUSEY EAST CANYON ECHO LOST CREEK PINEVIEW ROCKPORT SMITH AND MOREHOUSE WILLARD BAY Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:21 PM Weber Ogden Rivers Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Weber Ogden Rivers Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 16.6 23 26 76% 32 39 34 APR-JUL 46 73 92 79% 111 138 117 APR-JUL 19.1 59 86 70% 113 153 123 APR-JUL 1.64 16.6 28 68% 39 56 41 APR-JUL 50 90 87 69% 143 183 126 APR-JUL 43 87 117 70% 148 192 166 APR-JUL 2.3 9.3 8.8 73% 18.8 26 12.1 APR-JUL 0.46 6.3 10.6 70% 14.9 21 15.2 APR-JUL 0.55 11.9 19.6 70% 27 39 28 APR-JUL 30 150 200 63% 315 435 315 APR-JUL 8.2 30 34 61% 59 80 56 APR-JUL 15.2 68 71 60% 140 193 118 APR-JUL 0.19 2.3 3.9 62% 5.5 7.9 6.3 APR-JUL 0.14 0.53 0.8 59% 1.07 1.46 1.35 Smith & Morehouse Resv Inflow Weber R nr Oakley Rockport Reservoir Inflow Chalk Ck at Coalville Weber R nr Coalville Echo Reservoir Inflow Lost Ck Reservoir Inflow East Canyon Ck nr Jeremy Ranch East Canyon Ck nr Morgan Weber R at Gateway SF Ogden R nr Huntsville Pineview Reservoir Inflow Wheeler Ck nr Huntsville Centerville Ck 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Causey Reservoir East Canyon Reservoir Echo Reservoir Lost Creek Reservoir Pineview Reservoir Rockport Reservoir Willard Bay Smith And Morehouse Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Upper Weber Lower Weber Ogden River Lost Creek Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 4.8 38.5 47.3 18.1 67.7 51.0 165.1 4.7 397.3 8 # of Sites 4.3 23.5 25.8 14.6 67.5 28.2 140.1 5.6 309.4 8 % Median 9 7 5 3 73% 57% 62% 85% Average (KAF) 3.1 34.1 44.3 12.4 52.4 34.8 129.6 3.8 314.5 8 Last Year % Median 119% 119% 136% 120% Capacity (KAF) 7.1 49.5 73.9 22.5 110.1 60.9 215.0 8.1 547.1 8 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Ogden River * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 72.54 71.00 143.54 49 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Ogden River Surface Water Supply Index 400 350 300 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 250 200 150 100 50 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -0.11 Years with similiar SWSI 00, 12, 10, 16 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Weber River * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 324.71 200.00 524.71 54 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Weber River Surface Water Supply Index 1200 1000 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 800 600 400 200 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) 0.32 Years with similiar SWSI 94, 81, 10, 09 / 0 5 10 20 Miles Weber & Ogden River Basins Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 63% of Normal SWE 60% of Normal Precipitation 64% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 61% Saturation Soil Moisture 73% Reservoir Capacity % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Provo & Jordan River Basins January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Provo & Jordan River Basins is much below normal at 51% of normal, compared to 131% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 57%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 50% of average. Soil moisture is at 42% compared to 66% last year. Reservoir storage is at 77% of capacity, compared to 58% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 17% to 75% of average. The surface water supply index is 40% for the Provo River. Reservoir Storage DEER CREEK JORDANELLE STRAWBERRY UPPER STILLWATER UTAH LAKE Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:24 PM Provo Jordan Rivers Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Provo Jordan Rivers Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 34 58 75 75% 92 116 100 APR-JUL 51 73 72 67% 110 141 108 APR-JUL 13.6 55 83 72% 111 153 116 APR-JUL 2.1 11.7 40 58% 72 116 69 APR-JUL 0.96 4.3 12.6 39% 21 33 32 APR-JUL -119 15.1 106 40% 197 330 265 APR-JUL 0 0 0.3 17% 1.04 2.1 1.76 APR-JUL 19.9 27 26 68% 39 49 38 APR-JUL 18.9 26 24 67% 36 43 36 APR-JUL 0.09 2.2 3.7 58% 5.2 7.3 6.4 APR-JUL 2.8 8.8 6.4 45% 17 23 14.2 APR-JUL 0.06 0.23 2.7 49% 5.2 8.9 5.5 APR-JUL 0.16 1.1 2.6 65% 4.1 6.3 4 APR-JUL 0.15 2.6 4.5 58% 6.4 9.3 7.7 APR-JUL 0 0.66 1.85 19% 3.6 7.3 9.5 Provo R at Woodland Provo R at Hailstone Provo R bl Deer Ck Dam Spanish Fk at Castilla American Fk ab Upper Powerplant Utah Lake Inflow W Canyon Ck nr Cedar Fort Little Cottonwood Ck nr SLC Big Cottonwood Ck nr SLC Mill Ck nr SLC Parleys Ck nr SLC Dell Fk nr SLC Emigration Ck nr SLC City Ck nr SLC Salt Ck at Nephi 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Deer Creek Reservoir Strawberry Reservoir Utah Lake Jordanelle Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Provo River Jordan River Utah Lake Spanish Fork River Six Creeks Cottonwood Creeks Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 135.0 928.9 554.9 256.4 1875.1 4 # of Sites 6 16 13 5 15 7 123.6 766.8 333.2 185.2 1408.7 4 % Median 49% 58% 44% 29% 59% 55% Average (KAF) 103.1 657.4 726.5 244.5 1731.5 4 Last Year % Median 135% 115% 132% 136% 114% 114% Capacity (KAF) 149.7 1105.9 870.9 320.0 2446.5 4 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Provo River * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 946.24 75.00 1021.24 40 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Provo River Surface Water Supply Index 1600 1400 1200 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -0.83 Years with similiar SWSI 14, 02, 13, 08 / 0 5 10 20 Miles Provo & Jordan River Basins Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 51% of Normal SWE 50% of Normal Precipitation 57% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 42% Saturation Soil Moisture 77% Reservoir Capacity % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Tooele Valley & West Desert Basins January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Tooele Valley & West Desert Basins is much below normal at 33% of normal, compared to 145% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 49%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 36% of average. Soil moisture is at 23% compared to 46% last year. Reservoir storage is at 30% of capacity, compared to 20% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 14% to 72% of average. Reservoir Storage GRANTSVILLE SETTLEMENT CANYON Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:30 PM Tooele Valley West Desert Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Tooele Valley West Desert Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0 0.1 0.2 14% 0.66 1.34 1.39 APR-JUL 0.06 0.36 1 32% 1.63 2.6 3.1 APR-JUL 0.22 1.32 2.1 72% 2.8 3.9 2.9 APR-JUL 0 0 0.3 17% 1.04 2.1 1.76 Vernon Ck nr Vernon S Willow Ck nr Grantsville Dunn Ck nr Park Valley W Canyon Ck nr Cedar Fort 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Settlement Canyon Reservoir Grantsville Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Tooele Valley Raft River Deep Creek Northwestern Utah Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 0.3 1.0 1.3 2 # of Sites 0.3 0.6 0.9 2 Average (KAF) 0.6 1.5 2.1 2 Last Year % Median 42% 144% 79% 129% % Median 3 1 0 2 37% 153% Capacity (KAF) 1.0 3.3 4.3 2 / 0 5 10 Miles Tooele Valley & West Desert Basins Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 33% of Normal SWE 36% of Normal Precipitation 49% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 23% Saturation Soil Moisture 30% Reservoir Capacity % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Northeastern Uinta Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Northeastern Uinta Basin is below normal at 80% of normal, compared to 121% last year. Precipitation in December was below average at 89%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 65% of average. Soil moisture is at 47% compared to 62% last year. Reservoir storage is at 89% of capacity, compared to 83% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 60% to 91% of average. The surface water supply index is 39% for the Blacks Fork, 39% for the Smiths Creek. Reservoir Storage FLAMING GORGE MEEKS CABIN STATELINE Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:36 PM Northeastern Uintas Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Northeastern Uintas Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 43 61 74 86% 86 105 86 APR-JUL 12.5 18.1 22 81% 26 32 27 APR-JUL 295 650 890 91% 1130 1490 980 APR-JUL 15 23 30 60% 38 51 50 APR-JUL 8 12 14.6 70% 18.2 23 21 Blacks Fk nr Robertson EF of Smiths Fork nr Robertson 2 Flaming Gorge Reservoir Inflow 2 Ashley Ck nr Vernal Big Brush Ck ab Red Fleet Reservoir 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Flaming Gorge Reservoir Stateline Reservoir Meeks Cabin Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Blacks Fork River Upper Green Ashley Brush Creeks Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 3343.2 5.8 8.7 3357.7 3 # of Sites 3130.4 6.0 9.7 3146.1 3 3091.0 5.7 9.9 3106.6 3 Last Year % Median 93% 130% 90% 122% 42% 125% % Median 3 2 4 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 3749.0 12.0 32.5 3793.5 3 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Blacks Fork * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 8.69 74.00 82.69 39 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Blacks Fork Surface Water Supply Index 200 180 160 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -0.93 Years with similiar SWSI 90, 03, 91, 06 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Smiths Fork * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 5.82 22.00 27.82 39 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Smiths Fork Surface Water Supply Index 80 70 60 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 50 40 30 20 10 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -0.93 Years with similiar SWSI 90, 85, 88, 09 / 0 5 10 20 30 Miles Northeastern Uinta Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 80% of Normal SWE 65% of Normal Precipitation 89% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 47% Saturation Soil Moisture 89% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Duchesne River Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Duchesne River Basin is much below average at 58% of normal, compared to 145% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 52%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 52% of average. Soil moisture is at 26% compared to 52% last year. Reservoir storage is at 82% of capacity, compared to 71% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 35% to 76% of average. The surface water supply index is 72% for the Western Uintas, 21% for the Eastern Uintas. Reservoir Storage BIG SAND WASH CURRANT CREEK MOON LAKE RED FLEET STARVATION STEINAKER STRAWBERRY UPPER STILLWATER Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:44 PM Duchesne River Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Duchesne River Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 5.9 9.4 12.1 65% 15.2 20 18.6 APR-JUL 40 59 74 69% 90 118 108 APR-JUL 32 46 56 76% 68 87 74 APR-JUL 39 55 67 76% 80 102 88 APR-JUL 81 114 140 72% 168 215 195 APR-JUL 3.1 6.7 10 50% 13.9 21 20 APR-JUL 2.3 11.6 22 38% 36 62 58 APR-JUL 5.7 22 39 35% 62 104 112 APR-JUL 23 35 44 72% 55 73 61 APR-JUL 26 37 46 70% 56 73 66 APR-JUL 22 33 42 69% 51 67 61 APR-JUL 49 110 167 51% 235 355 330 APR-JUL 16 32 45 61% 61 89 74 APR-JUL 13.9 23 31 57% 40 55 54 APR-JUL 39 105 168 44% 245 390 385 APR-JUL 15 23 30 60% 38 51 50 APR-JUL 8 12 14.6 70% 18.2 23 21 WF Duchesne R at VAT Diversion Duchesne R nr Tabiona 2 2 Upper Stillwater Reservoir Inflow Rock Ck nr Mountain Home 2 Duchesne R ab Knight Diversion 2 2 Currant Ck Reservoir Inflow Strawberry R nr Soldier Springs Strawberry R nr Duchesne 2 2 Lake Fork R ab Moon Lake Reservoir Lake Fk R Bl Moon Lk nr Mountain Home 2 Yellowstone R nr Altonah Duchesne R at Myton 2 Uinta R bl Powerplant Diversion nr Neola 2 Whiterocks R nr Whiterocks Duchesne R nr Randlett 2 Ashley Ck nr Vernal Big Brush Ck ab Red Fleet Reservoir 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Steinaker Reservoir Red Fleet Reservoir Big Sand Wash Reservoir Upper Stillwater Reservoir Starvation Reservoir Moon Lake Reservoir Currant Creek Reservoir Strawberry Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Strawberry River Lakefork Yellowstone Rivers Uinta Whiterocks River Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 13.7 19.1 22.7 8.7 148.4 23.7 14.9 928.9 1157.5 7 # of Sites 19.1 20.8 23.0 13.9 140.4 22.3 14.1 766.8 997.4 7 20.0 17.5 10.0 134.1 22.4 14.9 657.4 876.3 7 Last Year % Median 40% 157% 74% 144% 35% 124% % Median 5 6 2 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 33.4 25.7 25.7 32.5 165.3 35.8 15.5 1105.9 1414.1 7 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Eastern Uinta * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 32.87 44.60 77.47 21 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Eastern Uinta Surface Water Supply Index 200 180 160 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -2.46 Years with similiar SWSI 04, 94, 03, 81 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Western Uinta * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 172.09 92.00 264.09 72 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Western Uinta Surface Water Supply Index 400 350 300 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 250 200 150 100 50 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) 1.82 Years with similiar SWSI 84, 96, 99, 87 / 0 5 10 20 30 Miles Duchesne River Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 58% of Normal SWE 52% of Normal Precipitation 52% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 26% Saturation Soil Moisture 82% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% San Pitch River Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the San Pitch River Basin is much below normal at 14% of normal, compared to 139% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 35%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 34% of average. Soil moisture is at 49% compared to 78% last year. Reservoir storage is at 0% of capacity, compared to 1% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for Manti Creek is 38% of average. The surface water supply index is 3% for the San Pitch. Reservoir Storage GUNNISON RESERVOIR Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:02:11 PM San Pitch River Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast San Pitch River Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0.17 2.9 6.4 38% 9.9 15.1 16.7 APR-JUL 0 1.98 5 5% 15.9 43 99 Manti Ck bl Dugway Ck nr Manti Sevier R nr Gunnison 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Gunnison Reservoir Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 0.0 Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Upper San Pitch Lower San Pitch 1 # of Sites 0.2 0.2 1 9.3 9.3 1 Last Year % Median 18% 157% 13% 142% % Median 2 5 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 20.3 20.3 1 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ San Pitch * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 0.00 6.40 6.40 3 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. San Pitch Surface Water Supply Index 70 60 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 50 40 30 20 10 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -3.95 Years with similiar SWSI 02, 13, 16, 15 / 0 5 10 Miles San Pitch River Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 14% of Normal SWE 34% of Normal Precipitation 35% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 49% Saturation Soil Moisture 0% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Price & San Rafael Basins January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Price & San Rafael Basins is much below normal at 19% of normal, compared to 141% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 45%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 44% of average. Soil moisture is at 42% compared to 72% last year. Reservoir storage is at 67% of capacity, compared to 37% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 32% to 62% of average. The surface water supply index is 62% for the Price River, 28% for Joe's Valley, 3% for Ferron Creek. Reservoir Storage CLEVELAND LAKE HUNTINGTON NORTH JOES VALLEY MILLER FLAT MILLSITE SCOFIELD Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:48 PM Price San Rafael Rivers Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Price San Rafael Rivers Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 4.3 8.4 12 40% 16.2 24 30 APR-JUL 3.9 9.6 15 37% 22 33 41 APR-JUL 0.75 2.8 5 32% 7.8 13 15.5 APR-JUL 795 1360 1840 62% 2390 3320 2960 APR-JUL 1.09 2.8 4.5 34% 6.5 10.2 13.3 APR-JUL 5.5 11.1 16 40% 22 32 40 APR-JUL 13 21 27 48% 35 47 56 APR-JUL 8.1 12.8 16.6 44% 21 28 38 Fish Ck ab Reservoir nr Scofield Price R nr Scofield Reservoir 2 White R bl Tabbyune Creek 2 Green R at Green River, UT Electric Lake Inflow 2 Huntington Ck nr Huntington 2 2 Joes Valley Reservoir Inflow Ferron Ck (Upper Station) nr Ferron 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Joes Valley Reservoir Millsite Huntington North Reservoir Cleveland Lake Miller Flat Reservoir Scofield Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Price River San Rafael Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 45.5 1.2 3.9 2.6 3.6 48.4 99.0 4 # of Sites 29.8 10.0 2.2 1.4 1.8 12.3 54.4 4 39.7 10.0 2.3 28.5 80.5 4 Last Year % Median 31% 146% 11% 143% % Median 4 4 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 61.6 16.7 4.2 5.4 5.2 65.8 148.3 4 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Price River * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 48.44 15.00 63.44 62 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Price River Surface Water Supply Index 180 160 140 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) 0.96 Years with similiar SWSI 08, 12, 17, 87 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Ferron Creek * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 1.15 16.60 17.75 3 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Ferron Creek Surface Water Supply Index 120 100 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 80 60 40 20 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -3.95 Years with similiar SWSI 13, 90, 89, 02 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Joe's Valley * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 45.54 27.00 72.54 28 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Joe's Valley Surface Water Supply Index 200 180 160 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -1.82 Years with similiar SWSI 12, 16, 81, 07 / 0 5 10 20 30 40 Miles Price & San Rafael Basins Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 19% of Normal SWE 44% of Normal Precipitation 45% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 42% Saturation Soil Moisture 67% Reservoir Capacity % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Lower Sevier Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Lower Sevier Basin is much below normal at 43% of normal, compared to 129% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 43%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 44% of average. Soil moisture is at 22% compared to 60% last year. Reservoir storage is at 22% of capacity, compared to 4% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 4% to 18% of average. The surface water supply index is 8% for the Lower Sevier. Reservoir Storage SEVIER BRIDGE Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:02:21 PM Lower Sevier Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Lower Sevier Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0 0.06 0.2 4% 0.49 1.29 4.5 APR-JUL 0 1.98 5 5% 15.9 43 99 APR-JUL 0.04 0.16 0.3 18% 0.48 0.82 1.66 Chicken Ck nr Levan Sevier R nr Gunnison Oak Ck nr Oak City 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Sevier Bridge Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Lower Sevier Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 51.9 51.9 1 # of Sites 8.3 8.3 1 143.2 143.2 1 Last Year % Median 43% 129% % Median 1 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 236.0 236.0 1 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Lower Sevier * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 51.93 5.00 56.93 8 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Lower Sevier Surface Water Supply Index 900 800 700 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -3.53 Years with similiar SWSI 17, 04, 92, 16 / 0 5 10 20 30 Miles Lower Sevier Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 43% of Normal SWE 44% of Normal Precipitation 43% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 22% Saturation Soil Moisture 22% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Upper Sevier Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Upper Sevier Basin is much below normal at 19% of normal, compared to 130% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 30%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 24% of average. Soil moisture is at 31% compared to 55% last year. Reservoir storage is at 45% of capacity, compared to 39% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 7% to 40% of average. The surface water supply index is 15% for the Upper Sevier. Reservoir Storage OTTER CREEK PANGUITCH LAKE PIUTE Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:02:05 PM Upper Sevier Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Upper Sevier Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0 0.54 2 7% 8.4 17.9 27 APR-JUL 0 2.9 12 25% 26 46 48 APR-JUL 0.35 1.96 9.8 28% 17.7 29 35 APR-JUL -25 -2.1 13.2 40% 29 51 33 APR-JUL 0 6.6 21 32% 42 74 66 APR-JUL 0 0.42 3 14% 7.7 14.7 21 APR-JUL 0 0.24 1 13% 3.2 6.5 7.9 Mammoth Ck nr Hatch Sevier R at Hatch EF Sevier R nr Kingston Sevier R nr Kingston Sevier R bl Piute Dam Clear Ck ab Diversions nr Sevier Salina Ck nr Emery 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Piute Reservoir Otter Creek Reservoir Panguitch Lake Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Upper Sevier Middle Sevier East Fork Sevier River Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 24.2 32.5 9.4 66.1 3 # of Sites 12 7 3 18.2 28.4 9.9 56.4 3 Average (KAF) 42.0 32.1 11.6 85.7 3 Last Year % Median 19% 130% 25% 132% 4% 118% % Median Capacity (KAF) 71.8 52.5 22.3 146.6 3 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Upper Sevier * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 56.72 21.00 77.72 15 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Upper Sevier Surface Water Supply Index 350 300 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 250 200 150 100 50 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -2.88 Years with similiar SWSI 16, 90, 92, 09 / 0 5 10 20 30 Miles Upper Sevier Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 19% of Normal SWE 24% of Normal Precipitation 30% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 31% Saturation Soil Moisture 45% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Southeastern Utah January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Southeastern Utah is much below normal at 12% of normal, compared to 143% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 27%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 20% of average. Soil moisture is at 16% compared to 58% last year. Reservoir storage is at 54% of capacity, compared to 76% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 27% to 56% of average. The surface water supply index is 22% for Moab. Reservoir Storage KEN'S LAKE Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:59 PM Southeastern Utah Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Southeastern Utah Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0.62 1.48 2.3 53% 3.2 5 4.3 APR-JUL 1090 1800 2390 56% 3060 4190 4280 APR-JUL 82 193 295 27% 420 640 1100 Mill Ck at Sheley Tunnel nr Moab South Ck ab Resv nr Monticello Colorado R nr Cisco 2 San Juan R near Bluff 2 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Ken's Lake Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Lasal Mountains Lower San Juan Lower Green Henry Mountains Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 1.2 1.2 1 # of Sites 1.7 1.7 1 1.0 1.0 1 Last Year % Median 17% 165% 5% 132% 26% 149% % Median 1 1 2 0 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 2.3 2.3 1 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Moab * Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 1.24 2.30 3.54 22 # ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Moab Surface Water Supply Index 12 10 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 8 6 4 2 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -2.34 Years with similiar SWSI 12, 04, 09, 14 / 0 5 10 20 30 40 50 Miles Southeastern Utah SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 12% of Normal SWE 20% of Normal Precipitation 27% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 16% Saturation Soil Moisture 54% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Dirty Devil Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Dirty Devil Basin is much below normal at 18% of normal, compared to 137% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 39%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 37% of average. Soil moisture is at 32% compared to 46% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 36% to 38% of average. SNOTEL Data Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:01:53 PM Dirty Devil Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Dirty Devil Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 2.4 5.1 7.5 38% 10.3 15.3 19.9 APR-JUL 1.05 1.88 2.6 36% 3.4 4.8 7.3 Muddy Ck nr Emery Seven Mile Ck nr Fish Lake 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Muddy Creek Fremont River Henry Mountains # of Sites Last Year % Median 13% 151% 24% 121% % Median 3 3 0 / 0 5 10 20 30 Miles Dirty Devil Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 18% of Normal SWE 37% of Normal Precipitation 39% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 32% Saturation Soil Moisture Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Escalante River Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Escalante River Basin is much below normal at 4% of normal, compared to 102% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 23%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 15% of average. Soil moisture is at 12% compared to 31% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for Pine Creek is 33% of average. SNOTEL Data Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:02:28 PM Escalante River Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Escalante River Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0.09 0.42 0.78 33% 1.25 2.1 2.4 Pine Ck nr Escalante 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Escalante River Paria River # of Sites Last Year % Median 4% 102% 0% 130% % Median 3 2 / 0 5 10 20 Miles Escalante River Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 4% of Normal SWE 15% of Normal Precipitation 23% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 12% Saturation Soil Moisture Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Beaver River Basin January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Beaver River Basin is much below normal at 7% of normal, compared to 129% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 13%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 17% of average. Soil moisture is at 22% compared to 48% last year. Reservoir storage is at 28% of capacity, compared to 28% last year. The forecast streamflow volume for the Beaver River is 8% of average. The surface water supply index is 3% for the Beaver River. Reservoir Storage MINERSVILLE RESERVOIR Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:02:24 PM Beaver River Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Beaver River Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 0.03 0.26 2.2 8% 9.1 19.2 26 Beaver R nr Beaver 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Minersville Reservoir Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Beaver River Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 6.5 6.5 1 # of Sites 6.6 6.6 1 11.8 11.8 1 Last Year % Median 7% 129% % Median 3 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 23.3 23.3 1 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Beaver River * # Storage + Forecast ^ ^ KAF KAF KAF % 6.50 2.20 8.70 3 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Beaver River Surface Water Supply Index 100 90 80 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -3.95 Years with similiar SWSI 02, 90, 04, 00 / 0 5 10 Miles Beaver River Basin SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 7% of Normal SWE 17% of Normal Precipitation 13% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 22% Saturation Soil Moisture 28% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Southwestern Utah January 1, 2018 Snowpack in the Southwestern Utah is much below normal at 8% of normal, compared to 158% last year. Precipitation in December was much below average at 21%, which brings the seasonal accumulation (Oct-Dec) to 14% of average. Soil moisture is at 22% compared to 45% last year. Reservoir storage is at 58% of capacity, compared to 49% last year. Forecast streamflow volumes range from 7% to 47% of average. The surface water supply index is 7% for the Virgin River. Reservoir Storage GUNLOCK KOLOB LAKE POWELL LOWER ENTERPRISE QUAIL CREEK SAND HOLLOW UPPER ENTERPRISE Previous Year % Capacity SNOTEL Data Current % Capacity Data Current as of: 1/3/2018 2:02:33 PM Southwestern Utah Streamflow Forecasts - January 1, 2018 Forecast Exceedance Probabilities for Risk Assessment Chance that actual volume will exceed forecast Southwestern Utah Forecast Period 90% (KAF) 70% (KAF) 50% (KAF) % Avg 30% (KAF) 10% (KAF) 30yr Avg (KAF) APR-JUL 1150 2320 3350 47% 4570 6700 7160 APR-JUL 0 2.9 10 16% 21 45 63 APR-JUL 1.07 7 14 24% 23 42 58 APR-JUL 0 0.29 0.9 18% 1.86 3.9 5 APR-JUL 0.19 0.58 1.3 7% 5.9 12.7 19.4 Lake Powell Inflow 2 Virgin R nr Hurricane Virgin R at Virgin Santa Clara R nr Pine Valley Coal Ck nr Cedar City 1) 90% and 10% exceedance probabilities are actually 95% and 5% 2) Forecasts are for unimpaired flows. Actual flow will be dependent on management of upstream reservoirs and diversions 3) Median value used in place of average Reservoir Storage End of December, 2017 Lake Powell Lower Enterprise Upper Enterprise Kolob Reservoir Gunlock Sand Hollow Reservoir Quail Creek Basin-wide Total # of reservoirs Watershed Snowpack Analysis January 1, 2018 Upper Virgin Lower Virgin Coal Parowan Creeks Current (KAF) Last Year (KAF) 14067.6 0.6 1.4 1.2 5.8 47.1 27.1 14102.6 5 # of Sites 11796.9 0.4 0.4 5.4 4.6 45.5 36.4 11838.6 5 17745.0 0.5 2.8 6.2 25.3 17779.8 5 Last Year % Median 10% 159% 11% 231% 5% 146% % Median 8 2 4 Average (KAF) Capacity (KAF) 24322.0 2.6 10.0 5.6 10.4 50.0 40.0 24385.0 5 Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 Basin or Region Dec EOM* Storage APR-JUL Forecast ^ Virgin River * # ^ Storage + Forecast ^ KAF KAF KAF % 32.96 14.90 47.86 7 ^ EOM, end of month; SWSI, Surface Water Supply Index; KAF, thousand acre-feet. Virgin River Surface Water Supply Index 300 250 Thousand Acre Feet Percentile SWSI# 200 150 100 50 0 Water Year Storage (KAF) Streamflow (KAF) -3.55 Years with similiar SWSI 03, 04, 02, 15 / 0 5 10 20 30 Miles Southwestern Utah SNOTEL Site # * Forecast Point As of January 1, 2018: 8% of Normal SWE 14% of Normal Precipitation 21% of Normal Precipitation Last Month 22% Saturation Soil Moisture 58% Reservoir Capacity Sources: Esri, DeLorme, USGS, NPS, Sources: Esri, USGS, NOAA % of Normal " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) " ) < 50% 50 - 69% 70 - 89% 90 - 109% 110 - 129% 130 - 149% > 150% Surface Water Supply Index January 1, 2018 * Basin or Region Bear River Woodruff Narrows Little Bear Ogden River Weber River Provo River Western Uinta Eastern Uinta Blacks Fork Smiths Fork Price River Joe's Valley Ferron Creek Moab Upper Sevier San Pitch Lower Sevier Beaver River Virgin River Dec EOM Storage KAF ^ 1035.5 46.0 9.9 72.5 324.7 946.2 172.1 32.9 8.7 5.8 48.4 45.5 1.2 1.2 56.7 0.0 51.9 6.5 33.0 APR-JUL Forecast Storage + Forecast Percentile KAF ^ KAF ^ % 145.0 92.0 28.0 71.0 200.0 75.0 92.0 44.6 74.0 22.0 15.0 27.0 16.6 2.3 21.0 6.4 5.0 2.2 14.9 1180.5 138.0 37.9 143.5 524.7 1021.2 264.1 77.5 82.7 27.8 63.4 72.5 17.8 3.5 77.7 6.4 56.9 8.7 47.9 79 46 48 49 54 40 72 21 39 39 62 28 3 22 15 3 8 3 7 SWSI# Years with similiar SWSI 2.46 -0.32 -0.15 -0.11 0.32 -0.83 1.82 -2.46 -0.93 -0.93 0.96 -1.82 -3.95 -2.34 -2.88 -3.95 -3.53 -3.95 -3.55 00, 82, 97, 85 81, 07, 08, 06 94, 10, 16, 08 00, 12, 10, 16 94, 81, 10, 09 14, 02, 13, 08 84, 96, 99, 87 04, 94, 03, 81 90, 03, 91, 06 90, 85, 88, 09 08, 12, 17, 87 12, 16, 81, 07 13, 90, 89, 02 12, 04, 09, 14 16, 90, 92, 09 02, 13, 16, 15 17, 04, 92, 16 02, 90, 04, 00 03, 04, 02, 15 *EOM, end of month; # SWSI, surface water supply index; ^KAF, thousand acre-feet. What is a Surface Water Supply Index? The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) is a predictive indicator of total surface water availability within a watershed for the spring and summer water use seasons. The index is calculated by combining pre-runoff reservoir storage (carryover) with forecasts of spring and summer streamflow which are based on current snowpack and other hydrologic variables. SWSI values are scaled from +4.1 (abundant supply) to -4.1 (extremely dry) with a value of zero (0) indicating median water supply as compared to historical analysis. SWSI's are calculated in this fashion to be consistent with other hydroclimatic indicators such as the Palmer Drought Index and the Precipitation index. Utah Snow Surveys has also chosen to display the SWSI value as well as a PERCENT CHANCE OF NON-EXCEEDANCE. While this is a cumbersome name, it has the simplest application. It can be best thought of as a scale of 1 to 99 with 1 being the drought of record (driest possible conditions) and 99 being the flood of record (wettest possible conditions) and a value of 50 representing average conditions. This rating scale is a percentile rating as well, for example a SWSI of 75% means that this years water supply is greater than 75% of all historical events and that only 25% of the time has it been exceeded. Conversely a SWSI of 10% means that 90% of historical events have been greater than this one and that only 10% have had less total water supply. This scale is comparable between basins: a SWSI of 50% means the same relative ranking on watershed A as it does on watershed B, which may not be strictly true of the +4 to -4 scale. For more information on the SWSI go to: www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ on the water supply page. The entire period of historical record for reservoir storage and streamflow is available. Issued by Released by Leonard Jordan Acting Chief Natural Resources Conservation Service U.S. Department of Agriculture Timothy Wilson State Conservationist Natural Resources Conservation Service Salt Lake City, Utah Prepared by Snow Survey Staff: Randall Julander, Supervisor Troy Brosten, Assistant Supervisor Beau Uriona, Hydrologist Jordan Clayton, Hydrologist Kent Sutcliffe, Soil Scientist Bob Nault, Electronics Technician YOU MAY OBTAIN THIS PRODUCT AS WELL AS CURENT SNOW, PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE AND SOIL MOISTURE, RESERVOIR, SURFACE WATER SUPPLY INDEX, AND OTHER DATA BY VISITING OUR WEB SITE @: http://www.ut.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ Snow Survey, NRCS, USDA 245 North Jimmy Doolittle Road Salt Lake City, UT 84116 (801) 524-5213 Utah Water Supply Outlook Report Natural Resources Conservation Service Salt Lake City, UT