FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tariffs to Reduce US Solar PV Installations by 11% Over the Next 5 Years
BOSTON, Mass. (January 23, 2018) According to new analysis by GTM Research, the tariffs on imported
solar cells and modules set forth by the Trump administration will result in an eleven percent decrease
in U.S. solar PV installations over the next five years. This represents a reduction of 7.6 gigawatts of
installed solar PV capacity between 2018 and 2022.
FIGURE: Annual U.S. PV Installations with and without Tariffs, 2017E-2022E
16,000

Annual PV Installations (MW)

14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2017E

2018E

2019E

Without Tariff

2020E

2021E

2022E

With Tariff

Source: GTM Research U.S. Downstream Solar Service
GTM Research notes that the tariffs result in an average $0.10/W increase in year 1 prices to modules,
stepping down to a $0.04/W premium by year 4.
According to the analysis, the utility-scale solar segment will be more heavily affected than the
residential and commercial solar segments, taking 65 percent of the expected 7.6 GW of reductions over
the next five years.

 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
FIGURE: Annual U.S. PV Installation Reductions Due to Tariffs by Segment
0

Annual Reduction in PV Installations (MW)

-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
-1400
-1600
-1800
2018E

2019E
Residential

2020E
Non-Residential

2021E

2022E
Utility

Source: GTM Research U.S. Downstream Solar Service
Projects under construction or with modules already in inventory will damper the effect on 2018
installations, with the effect of tariffs hitting the downstream market more heavily in 2019.
The analysis also shows that new and emerging state markets are disproportionately affected, with
southern states like Texas, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina amongst the most impacted by the
tariffs.
“Trump's decision on solar tariffs matches closely to recommendations from the US International Trade
Commission,” said MJ Shiao, Head of Americas at GTM Research. “The overall effect is a meaningful but
not destructive reduction to expected solar installations in concert with modest improvements to a still
challenging environment for domestic solar cell and module manufacturing.”
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About GTM Research:
GTM Research, a division of Greentech Media, provides critical and timely market analysis in the form of
research reports, data services, advisory services and strategic consulting. GTM Research's analysis also
underpins Greentech Media's webinars and live events. Our coverage spans the green energy industry
including solar power, grid modernization, energy storage, energy efficiency and wind power sectors.
Media Contact:
Mike Munsell, GTM Research, Marketing Manager, munsell@gtmresearch.com (617) 500 7764