Redistricting 2010 Preparing for Success

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What is New in This Cycle

0 Change in financing constraints

- Enhanced preparations by
Democrats

0 Loss of GOP strength

 

 Republican National Committee

 5 -

 
  

Redistricting 2010
Preparing for Success

Republican State Leadership Committee
Nashville, Tennessee June 7, 2009

Congressman A. Westmoreland

Thomas B. Hofeller, RNC Redistricting

 

 

 

 

 

What is the Same?

- Each redistricting cycle builds on
the results of previous cycles

0 Whatever the results we live
with them for 5 elections

0 Not playing is NOT an option!

 

 

 

 

What is the Same?

- The GOP must be fully prepared
0 We must engage on multiple fronts

- State Legislators play a key role

 

 

 

 Redistricting - 2009 2010 Elections

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Importance of Being at the Table

0 Full Control of Process
0 Split Control of Process

0 No Control of Process

 

 

Redistricting 2010 Preparing for Success



 

 

 

Elections This Year in 2010
are Our LAST Chance to
Influence our position at the
?Redistricting Table" when
the Line Drawing Begins

 

 



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1% Historical Apportionment of US. House Seats
?a

 Net Gain or Loss Since 1970

 

 

    
 

 

Historical Apportionment of US. House Seats
Net Gain or Loss Since 1930

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Reapportionment Trends

0 Since 1930 -- 100 seats
have shifted from the 
Midwest Northeast to
the South West.

- The average population
per seat from 283 to 713
thousand.

 

 

epublican National Committee

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

Redistricting 2010 Preparing for Success

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Five Primary Activities
- Elections
0 Legal
- Technology] Data
- Training
- Census

 

 

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Ema- .228 36:663.

 

 

 

 

 

Partisan Control of Process

GOP

Democrats
Split Control
Commissions

.At Large

5
172
240

11

 

 

 

 

Partisan Control of Process
96

0 GOP

Democrats
Split Control
Commissions

At Large

135

161
34
7

 

 

Redistricting Party Control -2001
Congressional Only

 

 

- Stars denote states in which Republicans
gained control in 2002.

 

edistricting Party Control -2009

Congressional Only

-The GOP Leg Islatura In Tennessee can overrlde
a Democrat Governor's veto.

?Tha Dem Legislatures in Alabama and Rhoda
Island can Override a GOP Govemor?s veto. 

-The Connedlcut Governor does not have veto - - i . _3 7: Split Legislature States are Labeled with Gov Control

power over redistricting then State Senate Conn-cl than some House Contml.

 

 

 

  

Redistricting - 2010 Reapportionment

 

 

Partisan Control of Process
0 GOP 107
- Democrats 124
- Split Control 161
- Commissions 36

- At Large 7

 

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 What the Democrats Can Do



 

 

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General

0 Set Up Internal RNC Redistricting
Operation

- Outside Funding Activities

 

 

 

 

 

Legal Support

0 Locate and Organize Files of Cases
and Pleadings

0 Legal Advisory Committee

- New Legal Manual

 

 

 

 

0 Technology Advisory Committee

0 Survey of Existing Assets

0 Database Construction
0 Many new and changed sources

0 Software and Hardware Selection

 

 
 

  

 ActiVIties over the Next Yea 
 IE, 33:3, 1,13?; I "em 

Education

0 Internal Staff Orientation
- State Readiness Surveys

0 Staff Education

- Redistricting Manual

0 Training Conference

- Individual State Education

  

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 Activities ove

the Next Year

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Census

- Liaison with Census Bureau

- Monitor Possible Statistic
Adjustment Plans

 

 

 

 

Action Steps for State Legislators

0 Designation of Key Redistricting
Individual

- Liaison with Other Key GOP
Stakeholders

- Survey of Present and Future
Assets

 

 

  

  Redistricting 2010 Preparing for Success

 A . 

 

 

 

Elections - 2009 8: 2010
Redistricting Impacts

 

 

 

 

 

Key Factors in Election Targeting

- Within +5 to -5 of Control

- Statewide Officials with a Key Role
- Practicality of Electoral Success

0 Efficacy of Committing Funds

- Veto Override Protection

 

 

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Governor Labels are as follows:

I-R: Republican Incumbent

Democrat Incumbent

O-R: Open Seat, Formerly Republican
0-D: Open Seat, Formerly Democrat

 

 

 

 

 

Redistricti  2? 1? 

. .

 

 

Key Factors in Election Targeting

0 Gubernatorial Veto
0 Number of Votes to Override

- Party of Attorney General

- State Constitutional Amendments
and referenda

 

 

 

 

Early Legal Considerations

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 

 

 

- Work with relevant legislatures to
assess legal needs

- Assure every legislature has a
redistricting lawyer and a litigator

- Develop legal and litigation
strategies

 

 

 :POI ltlca I ACtIVItles - 2009 Political Action
- to Key Campaigns

- Training Candidates
- Recruitment of Staff

- Upgrade Vendors